Spring 2004 Contest
Stats & Discussion - Spring 2004 Contest - Part 3
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/29/2004 5:49:50 PM | Message Detail
*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #28 - (4) METROID PRIME vs. (13) HALF-LIFE ***

Sales

Okay. Half-Life is the 10th best-selling game of all time, with 8 million copies. Meanwhile, Metroid Prime may or may not have broken 2 millions. Obvious.

- Advantage HALF-LIFE.

Franchises

It doesn't take a rocket scientist, or Gordon Freeman for that matter, to figure that one out. It just depends on what level you're speaking... the difference is so large I just have to give both credit.

- Advantage PRIME on GameFAQs, HALF-LIFE worldwide. (This contest is on GameFAQs, so Prime wins by default.)

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: Prime
Number of reviews: Prime
Average review score: Half-Life
Board activity: Prime

Prime would DESTROY Half-Life if it wasn't for a few reviewers who don't find Prime's innovative style to be their cup of tea. Save for that, a huge PWNED is in order.

- Advantage PRIME.

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Metroid Prime - 98
Half-Life - 4

POINT VALUE
12. Metroid Prime - 358
43. Half-Life - 16

Despite having a truckload of brackets that have Prime bowing out in round 2, it still beats the hell out of a lot of the yellows, mainly because of the freebie in round 3 if it gets past WW. (A freebie, more than ever, I must admit.)

I sympathize with the two brackets that have Half-Life in the division finals. On another note, it would've been interesting if the BOP was taken during the contest... we'd probably have a lot more Half-Life pick. Conclusion: if you want to have a reliable survey, do it BEFORE the contest. Many people thought SoA could win today... and look.

- Advantage PRIME.

Summer Contests / Polls of the day

Haha.

Hahahaha.

Hahahahahaha!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!


- Advantage PRIME.

Intangibles

I'll be fair, Half-Life is probably more popular than Gordon (though that logic wrecked us with KH), and Prime isn't quite as popular as Super (though I'd have expected only a few percents better from Super Metroid than what Metroid did against Pac-Man). Don't forget that while Prime way exceeded the expectations, it's still not the cup of tea of some people, as I said earlier.

Half-Life wins this category, but it's not going to net him the match like it did for Starcraft. Far from it.

- Advantage HALF-LIFE.

Conclusion: Pretty much the entire voice acting in the NTSC version of Prime.

Evacuate immediately!

Useless fact: the NTSC version of Metroid Prime has less voice acting than Super Metroid... a 16-bit game.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 021/026 --- Matches: 21/26 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 5:50:15 PM | Message Detail
"also did better in the arcades"

That part is false. Soul Calibur did horribly in the arcades. I worked in an arcade for a long time, I'll share some of what I learned. In the time span it took Tekken Tag Tournament to rack up 100,000 games played Soul Calibur managed 12,000. The popularity of Soul Calibur actually picked up after the DC release, which was good for it I suppose, but that was only by chance really. The game's performance in the time span that actually matters to bigger arcades was pathetic.

Also, while SC may have sold a bit over 500,000 units I have clearly shown that the GC version of SC2 alone reaches the same heights. Sales alone are not indicative of where each game belongs.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/29/2004 5:51:46 PM | Message Detail
neither the GC nor the Xbox has more quality titles than the DC.

Excuse me?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 021/026 --- Matches: 21/26 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 5:55:15 PM | Message Detail
There really are only about half a dozen top-notch exclussive non-remakes for the GC. I love my GC, but I don't think there's any way more than a dozen games had any noticable number of votes for that system, and one of those games certainly had its votes dumped into the original version (Resident Evil)
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 5:56:00 PM | Message Detail
And that's not to say that I was implying the DC had more than either of them, it was to imply that they are both roughly equal.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:00:43 PM | Message Detail
But other than SoA, SA1 and SA2, which are on both, the only Dreamcast exclusive I can think of that has recogition is Soul Calibur. And quite frankly, I'd like to compete against Soul Calibur much more than against SSBM, MP, WW and all the others TOGETHER.

That and SADX and SA2B could've split the nominations with the Dreamcast versions... I dunno...
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 021/026 --- Matches: 21/26 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: redline15 | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:03:56 PM | Message Detail
I'll fully accept it once you admit Xbox doesn't have more noteworthy games than the DC.

...that depends on your definition.

the dreamcast has a larger number of landmark titles...but that's to be expected. the xbox is only halfway through its life cycle.

as for which system has the more noteworthy games...
halo was more noteworthy than all of the dreamcast's landmark titles combined.
...it's not as good as any of them...but it was a lot more important for gaming.

that's really the heart of my argument about sc1. sc1 was important to the dreamcast. its port was a dreamcast exclusive...and it probably did a better job of selling the system than sonic adventure. but on all of its systems, sc2 was just another good game...even on the xbox, where halo clearly overshadowed every other title. there are so many other options to vote for besides sc2 (or, for the xbox, halo was so well-received) that it didn't stand a chance of outdistancing sc1, one of the dreamcast's most important titles.

...that may be the longest paragraph i've ever typed...
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:06:55 PM | Message Detail
*Cough*Shenmue*cough*

There are plenty of games that are deserving and could get the recognition on GameFAQs as well, though not with the general public. But hey, we all know the general public and GF have nothing in common.

Space Channel 5, Seaman, and Jet Set Radio come to mind off hand. Sure, they aren't mainstream liek Nintendo's titles and their absence proves they'd make no splash if they even had the cance to compete, but we're talking about quality titles that would take up a significant portion of the system's nominations afterall.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:11:08 PM | Message Detail
I don't even WANT to mention Shenmue in the same breath as the other four. I'm still pissed off to death with it taking SA2's spot. Heck, my vote for FF10 won't be as much a bracket vote as a Shenmue anti-vote.

But even there, the games you mentioned still aren't anywhere near GC's second line of defense, like SMS, VJ, FFCC, MKDD and others.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 021/026 --- Matches: 21/26 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:13:47 PM | Message Detail
"it's not as good as any of them"

Agreed, though...

"but it was a lot more important for gaming."

Disagree whole-heartedly. Halo isn't important to gaming. Half-Life and it's most noteworthy mod Countestrike were more important in their genre alone, Doom was more important to gaming as a whole, and GoldenEye was more important to FPS's on consoles. There isn't anything about Halo that markes it as being a revolution of any kind. Soul Calibur, however, was the first port to be SUPERIOR to the arcade experience. It litterally marked the transition from the times when the arcades were the height of gaming to the period where consoles were the height of gaming. Name a game before Soul Calibur that was vastly superior at home than in the arcades. There honestly isn't one. That is a mark on gaming history. A footnote, maybe, but it's far more important than the contributions that blind fans attribute to Halo (which weren't even Halo's innovations to begin with).
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:19:25 PM | Message Detail
How could Soul Calibur possibly be more important for gaming? Halo saved the Xbox, without it Microsoft probably wouldn't be releasing the NeXtbox, and GC would probably be doing a lot better than it currently is.
From: redline15 | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:21:49 PM | Message Detail
A footnote, maybe, but it's far more important than the contributions that blind fans attribute to Halo (which weren't even Halo's innovations to begin with).

it is actually those blind fans i am referring to, not the game itself.

innovative or not, halo made the xbox.
without it the system would have probably been only a bit more successful here than it is in japan.
microsoft would abandon the project...
there would be no xbox2...
and the console market would go back to having only two contenders.

...of course...i may be going too far here...but you get the idea.
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:22:10 PM | Message Detail
Indeed. Halo didn't do anything special... but it still made a huge splash.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 021/026 --- Matches: 21/26 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:27:20 PM | Message Detail
Sonic Adventure 2 is trash. There should be no arguments about it.

Clearly I stated before that the top-line GC games were surperior in quality, just rather even in numbers. DC still has Powerstone and Powerstone 2 which are in everyway more fun than SSBM, Grandia 2 (I don't aknowledge the horrendous PS2 port as even existing as it takes away all of the good qualities the game had), Street Fighter 3 which is still (for the time being at least) a DC exclusive, House of the Dead 2 (the best in the series), and Chu Chu Rocket (damn fun puzzle game). Let us for now forget the really ****ing awesome games that didn't get enough publicity, and say that these were great games and anybody who owned more than one would probably be torn.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:29:45 PM | Message Detail
hmm, I'll take your word for it then Chichiri, you seem to know much more about these pads then I do, but, for now at least, I'm still happy.
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Silly Rabbit...Trix are for....kids.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:30:22 PM | Message Detail
"Halo saved the Xbox"

Massive price cuts that put them in the hole for every unit sold saved the Xbox. If the Xbox was still at $300 right now Halo wouldn't have sold half as well. In addition, wasn't Halo a launch title? You can't save a system as it launches, to be a saviour you have to come along when something is clearly in danger. That would be massive price cuts that caused each sstem to sell at a loss.

"and the console market would go back to having only two contenders."

I still pray to god that it does.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:31:28 PM | Message Detail
FF05 - They hold up until you start hitting the harder half of the songs. If you're seeing slippage now 2 difficulties from now you'll be looking for your nearest arcade machine.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:53:01 PM | Message Detail
*pokes topic with a stick* Is it dead?
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:59:35 PM | Message Detail
Massive price cuts that put them in the hole for every unit sold saved the Xbox. If the Xbox was still at $300 right now Halo wouldn't have sold half as well.

Halo has always sold very well, and Xbox got ahead of GCN before the price cuts came into effect, as I recall. Mid-2002, was it? And at launch, Xbox also sold better than the GCN. Xbox only needed price cuts to help them after GCN and PS2 got price cuts.

In addition, wasn't Halo a launch title? You can't save a system as it launches, to be a saviour you have to come along when something is clearly in danger. That would be massive price cuts that caused each sstem to sell at a loss.

So what if it was a launch title? Sonic Adventure sold almost twice as much as any other DC title, without it the Dreamcast would likely have done much worse. Mario 64 held the N64 in the months after its release, and until Goldeneye, it and Mario Kart were the only real system sellers the N64 has. Whether or not it's a launch title makes no difference.
From: Fett0001 | Posted: 4/29/2004 7:01:27 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Fett0001 | Posted: 4/29/2004 7:02:19 PM | Message Detail
*stops lurking*
...I'm still here...and you're right, two consoles are better.
*lurks*
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21/24 as of OoT vs. Fallout 2
Next Pick : SC
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 4/29/2004 7:04:37 PM | Message Detail
Getting back to the issue of DDR at home - I have a soft pad, I don't know what company, but I've got a set up that works pretty well. I taped it down over the corners to a big piece of plywood, and then I put some 10-pound freeweights on the corners of the plywood that stick out. I haven't really had any problems in terms of slippage, I can play all the way up to 8-9 footers, though it seems that after every song it tends to drift to the right slightly by half a foot maybe, but that's not a big deal. However, it is getting a little old and sometimes the buttons think they're getting pressed an eigth of a second too early, resulting in many more goods, almosts, and boos than I should have. I can still do much better at an arcade though, but don't completely discount soft pads.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 7:38:08 PM | Message Detail
By that point in time Xbox had 13% of the console market and GC had like 12.5% (YTD sales, I believe, as the PS2 had a very large lead on both). That's not a huge gap, and if they had held their prices they would have a huge gap on their hand. PS2 didn't need a price cut to maintain sales, Xbox would have needed one regardless. If you doubt me on the PS2's ability to maintain its price, I'll remind you that in Japan the system got a price cut a significantly long time before the US did but US sales went very strong. The Xbox price cut was obviously planned before any PS2 cut was announced, and they would have planned it in advance because they knew a sales slump was impending.

They still lack quality titles to reinforce sales, and it looks as if Halo 2 will be pushed back until they launch their next system. Chances are their next system will also lack backwards compatibility due to heavy licensing fees that would be imposed if they did because they have changed GPU manufacturers. Nvidia provides the Xbox GPU, Nvidia won't drop prices for MS, MS loses money on every system because Nvidia is stubborn. MS has chosen ATI as the most likely candidate to develop the next system's GPU. So in that situation Nvidia will charge huge amounts to allow backwards compatibility or video emulation, this will raise the system's launch price point which obviously lowers sales. They are damned if they do and likewise if they don't because either the cost will be prohibitive for most potential buyers or it will lack the EXPECTED backwards compatibility feature that the PS2 had. A feature which every console from now until the end of time should have, and the gamers know it. Even if I was a fan of Xbox I probably wouldn't buy their new system if it lacked backwards compatibility, and as someone who has been walking the line of indecision about buying an Xbox I can assure you if the next system lacks the feature I will not buy either.

Will the next Xbox lack backwards compatibility? It seems likely. Will that cut into sales if it does? You can bet your ass on it, especially if the big N's next system does have it as they are expected to. Is Halo 2 being continously delayed because of the fact that MS may or may not pay out for that license? Probably.

And no, Halo isn't the system's saviour. As I said, a saviour comes in and saves sometihng when it's in dire straights. Halo is the headline game. Mario64 wasn't the N64's saviour, GoldenEye was, and the DC never got a saviour, which is why it promptly crumbled up and died when the PS2 came out.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/29/2004 7:55:37 PM | Message Detail
Match #26 Review:

Wow. This match was much closer than I expected...which game will win between StarCraft and KH in Round 2?

Match #28 Preview:

On any other site, this match would be extremely close. Not on GameFAQs, though. Metroid Prime should win easily.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 8:02:55 PM | Message Detail
The topic didn`t die. Gamefaqs did. Though I was on a break to maintain my nickname as the pr0n of gamefaqs.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 8:05:01 PM | Message Detail
You know, I had something damned important to say, but forgot what it was. Stupid me having sex and my desires to go play a 2v2v2v2 match in Starcraft.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/29/2004 8:09:19 PM | Message Detail
So, if Half-Life posts 00ber numbers tomorrow, like in the 40s, is it Prime's fault or Half-Life's fault?

In other news...

CJAYC used DATABASE UPGRADE!
RESULTS PAGE was frozen!
RESULTS PAGE's frozen solid!
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 021/026 --- Matches: 21/26 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/29/2004 8:13:18 PM | Message Detail
I`m hoping Metroid Prime can manage to get at or around the 72% area tomorrow, I`d feel better if it could get around there to go into the match against Wind Waker.
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
He who hesitates is lost.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/29/2004 8:15:57 PM | Message Detail
I'm hoping Prime posts 72% on WW, lol.
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/29/2004 8:17:43 PM | Message Detail
Heh, I`d love to see Metroid Prime get 72% on Wind Waker. ;)
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Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End
He who hesitates is lost.
From: redline15 | Posted: 4/29/2004 8:33:37 PM | Message Detail
On any other site, this match would be extremely close. Not on GameFAQs, though. Metroid Prime should win easily.

...i don't think prime could beat half life on most other sites.

in fact...i have a feeling that tomorrow's results will be the exact opposite of what would happen at most other sites...
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 8:51:22 PM | Message Detail
I still think Half-Life could make that match damned closer than many people think.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: smitelf | Posted: 4/29/2004 9:09:22 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: smitelf | Posted: 4/29/2004 9:10:28 PM | Message Detail
Meh, I guess I'll write this up again. I keep getting stupid cgi errors when I try to post but whatever, maybe it'll work this time.

Match Review: Kingdom Hearts vs. Soul Calibur

I had written a much better review of this match but I'm not in the mood to do so again. It should suffice to say that Kingdom Hearts was massively disappointing and Starcraft may, unexpectedly, give it a run for its money in Round 2.

Match Preview: Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life

Metroid Prime: It's a Metroid game, and a damn good one. Metroid is a popular series on this site.

Half-Life: Huge sales numbers BUT not a huge fanbase on this site in comparison to the Metroid franchise. Has a highly anticipated sequel in the works that might bring it some attention.

The Metroid franchise will beat anything the PC has to offer on this site but perhaps not as badly as some expect. Half-Life is still a well-known and popular game. Don't be surprised if this is a close match.

My prediction: Metroid Prime 55%, Half-Life 45%
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 25/26, Next Winner: The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 9:41:39 PM | Message Detail
I remembered what I was going to say earlier.

Chichiri, CjayC did not pull the 2002 bracket out of his ass. What happened was that CjayC created a topic on Current Events asking people for their opinions on who would get into a contest, and whether or not the contest was a good idea. Current Events as we all know used to be made up of the oldest vets on the site, hence they would have opinions that were a bit different than most. In essence, the 2002 contest was done through a nomination system, but the pool was so small that the anomalies on the bracket were a bit extreme.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: cyko | Posted: 4/29/2004 9:44:55 PM | Message Detail
i lack time, but i wanna comment on Steve Illumina's different bracket. mebbe tomorrow, lol.


cyko's Point of View

Match 28

(4) Metroid Prime vs. (13) Half-Life


like i said, i lack time, but on any site outside of GameFAQS or Planet Camecube, Half-Life would WHOMP any Metroid game. heck, on Gamespy the closest anyone came to Half-Life was 39%, i believe. it's a hugely popular PC FPS. but, we will see how much Half-Life can draw from Prime.

Gordon Freeman was a joke, but i really don't think he represented his game well. but, Doom and Starcraft both proved that PC games can pull in votes. but, Goldeneye, Perfect Dark, and Halo also showed that FPS's don't always perform as well as people think. that match will show which one of those is more true. if Half-Life does relatively well, maybe it really was the anti-X-Box vote that killed Halo.

anywho, Half-Life will not beat Prime. the big four series here are Final Fantasy, Mario, Zelda, and Metroid. any games from those series will not lose unless it's another game from those series (except maybe Chrono Trigger and Metal Gear Solid). Metroid is simply too huge to get knocked out by a FPS. but i predict that Half-Life will perform respectably. better than Skies of Arcadia did today, anyways. in fact, i won't be shocked to see it break 40%.

prediction: Metroid Prime with 68-72%

my bracket: Metroid Prime

personal favorite: Metroid Prime
- haven't really played Half-Life enough to give it a fair opinion. i've only played a little of Prime, too; but the little of it i did play makes me want to play it more!!

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Current Score: 22/24 (through OOT vs Fallout 2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 10:02:04 PM | Message Detail
I finally submitted my petition to CjayC, and it wound up being one of the best e-mails I have ever written. Hopefully future contests are done the way they were done in 2003. A fair nomination system paired with throwing everyone together in a giant mess of characters makes for more fun. Seperating games by division and such seemed fun, but meh... it wasn`t the best way to go about doing things.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: torey luvullo | Posted: 4/29/2004 10:11:41 PM | Message Detail
as always, you make a logical point ulti. but any system which produces a match-up like starcraft v halo cannot be all bad.

the problem with throwing all the games into one large bracket, i think, comes from a difference i felt, but did not see clearly until now, between a character contest vs a game contest. with characters, as a voter, i think "well, i liked/disliked the game - did i like/dislike the character?" about both entries. this involves thinking and hesitation. when i see the game matchup, i think, "i liked x. vote x."

i don't think it is an accident that the blowouots of the first round came, for the most part, with the older games. in the 128 bit division, the entire gf fanbase has played [or knows someone who has played] every game. in the 8 and 16, there are lower seeded games which no one has heard of, and no one in their peer group has heard of either.

the division system, i think, was an attempt to correct this unfairness. i don't think it was that bad an idea.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 11:06:47 PM | Message Detail
What point did I make? About how everything should be done the way it was done in 2003?
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: Ringworm | Posted: 4/29/2004 11:09:15 PM | Message Detail
Something interesting from today's match - SoA beat the PotD's total votes. It will anyway (currently about 2000 ahead). Good to see :)

I'll try to remember to give my opinion on the next close match, won't be tomorrow, but FFTA v FE may be a bit closer. Although I guess HL could pull a Starcraft...Nah.
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Betting: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=13843099
23/26 Next: Z:WW
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/30/2004 2:13:23 AM | Message Detail
2 hours into the poll, and Metroid Prime only has a lead of 360. Vewwwwy intewesting.
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Boards Hunted: 4098
I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf
From: creativename | Posted: 4/30/2004 3:15:11 AM | Message Detail
Chichiri, CjayC did not pull the 2002 bracket out of his ass

You should've directed this to me too, as I was the one who originally stated that :) I didn't know about the Current Events thing. Still, he probably did pull it mostly out of his ass, unless he had some systematic way of gathering the opinions of the Current Events board members.

I finally submitted my petition to CjayC

What petition? I gathered that it involved elimation of divisions (which I don't know if I agree with; the NCAA format is just too familiar, and divisions make things less cluttered, without affect purity too much), but what else was there?


I had wanted to decrease my Metroid Prime % prediction in the Oracle challenge, because I realized that according to 2K3 numbers, Gordon would be expected to get over 22% against Samus. How the hell could Samus get 75% against Half-Life, which seemed like the average prediction, if its obscure protagonist Gordon would get 22%? Unfortunately I just never bothered to compute this until after the deadline passed. Idiot. I had already thought that Half-Life was underpredicted and had lowered my original prediction to 68%, but I would've changed to 64%-65% if I had calculated this beforehand.

I must say though, that I am still incredibly surprised; Half-Life's performance so far is beyond what I thought it was capable of getting. Metroid Prime has less than 54% at the moment, with 5555 votes in. This match actually isn't over, and a Half-Life victory is not out of the question. Most, including myself, expect Metroid Prime to do better during the day; but the batting average for board expectations regarding who wins the morning/day vote is notoriously poor.

Here's my idea on why Half-Life is doing so well; I actually think this is accurate:

The character contest is more biased towards RPGs than the game contest. This is due to the obvious reason that RPG characters get more development than characters from other genres. They incite more sympathy and loyalty than characters from non-RPG games.

Non-RPG games themselves, though, are very different. Character contests would tend to be very biased towards RPGs; even on non-RPG biased sites, RPG characters would probably perform better than would otherwise be expected. A game's popularity is more related to how played/liked it was.

Thing is, this seems utterly obvious, and I actually knew last summer that character contests would be RPG-character biased. For some reason, I just never remembered to apply that to this contest.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com
From: creativename | Posted: 4/30/2004 3:29:46 AM | Message Detail
One more thing to note:

This division kicks ass.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com
From: cyko | Posted: 4/30/2004 4:24:55 AM | Message Detail
in fact, i won't be shocked to see it break 40%.

yep. Half-Life has 45%. not surprised. nothing in this division shocks me anymore, lol. i'm not worried about Metroid pulling a Halo, though. Nintendo almost always seems to run away with the day vote.

Top 5 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 75.28% - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
4) 72.62% - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2
5) 71.26% - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2

Top 5 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2
4) 74682 - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
5) 69753 - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2

Top 5 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.14% - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 0.34% - Starcraft over Halo
3) 1.20% - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur
4) 6.36% - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark *
5) 12.48% - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2

Top 5 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 143 - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 373 - Starcraft over Halo
3) 1088 - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur
4) 4883 - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark *
5) 11114 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *

Top 5 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 112889 - Halo vs. Starcraft
2) 107150 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2
3) 99194 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall
4) 97580 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure
5) 97285 - Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons

Top 5 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 69876 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C *
2) 72743 - Metroid vs. Pac-Man *
3) 74556 - Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metal Gear *
4) 74688 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Resident Evil *
5) 75583 - Goldeneye 007 vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga *

Top 5 Least Popular Polls without an Extra PotD (by vote totals)

1) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WInd Waker vs. Skies of Arcadia

2) 84501 - Tetris vs. Galaga
3) 84664 - Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star 4
4) 84804 - Pong vs. River City Ransom
5) 86418 - Earthbound vs. Doom

Top 5 Highest Individual Votes

1) 92894 - Legend of Zelda
2) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7
3) 86938 - Final Fantasy
4) 86690 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP
5) 82903 - Legend of Zelda: OOT

Top 5 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4686 - Adventure
2) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes
3) 12256 - Pitfall
4) 12375 - Nights *
5) 13150 - Fallout 2

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 56258 - Halo
2) 48444 - Duck Hunt
3) 44532 - Soul Calibur
4) 42314 - Street Fighter 2
5) 37127 - Earthbound

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 40495 - Xenogears *
2) 40813 - Castlevania: SotN *
3) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts
4) 48587 - Donkey Kong
5) 49291 - Doom

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners without an Extra PotD (by votes)

1) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts
2) 48587 - Donkey Kong
3) 49291 - Doom
4) 54390 - Super Mario RPG
5) 55593 - Contra

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) still, no data yet..... ever......... bleh.......
2)
3)
4)
5)

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) no data yet...... hopefully soon......... please..........
2)
3)
4)
5)

* = shared PotD with GameRiot or ESPN or FFXI poll


1) 75687 - Legend of Zelda: WInd Waker vs. Skies of Arcadia

these recent low match totals are screwy. i don't think the extra poll of the day affected the low totals, since the contest match had a better location. maybe the new site layout is lowering the vote totals? before, the match was right in your face when you loaded the homepage. now, you have to scroll down a bit to see it. maybe some casual voters are missing it.

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Current Score: 22/24 (through OOT vs Fallout 2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: smitelf | Posted: 4/30/2004 5:28:45 AM | Message Detail
Nice to see Half-Life doing so well. MP will probably pull ahead a bit in the day but it won't do as well as most were expecting.

I guess I should do this now since I won't have computer access for the rest of the day (or most of tomorrow). At least I'm not missing anything good.

Match Review: The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs. Skies of Arcadia

Wow. Wind Waker won. I am so surprised. SoA did respectably well, though.

Match Preview: Final Fantasy Tactics Advance vs. Fire Emblem

FFTA: It has the Final Fantasy name behind it. It wins.

Fire Emblem: What possible advantage could this game have? Oh, right, it's the better game from what I'm hearing.

No Final Fantasy game has lost its first round match. I fail to see why a supposedly good but nowhere near as popular game is going to change that winning streak. Still, plenty of people didn't like FFTA (including me, from what little I played of it) so this won't be a murder.

My prediction: FFTA 65%, Fire Emblem 35%
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 26/27, Next Winner: Metroid Prime
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/30/2004 5:33:52 AM | Message Detail
Wow. Just... wow. This is insane. From what I gather, Prime has the morning vote, but if it can't do better than that against Half-Life, how can Wind Waker be expected to lose?

Unless Half-Life really is so strong it could have a nailbiter with Wind Waker... which I just don't see happening. It's like the idea of Gordon beating Aeris.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 021/026 --- Matches: 21/26 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker
From: creativename | Posted: 4/30/2004 5:57:38 AM | Message Detail
It's like the idea of Gordon beating Aeris.

Not even close...Gordon Freeman is a horrendous proxy for Half-Life.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com
From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/30/2004 7:14:20 AM | Message Detail
Some general comments...

Wow..Half Life...wow wow. Smitelf called this close percentage and I am impressed by its performance. I am thinking my commentary angered the pc voters! lol But seriously, nice job, though I dont see it able to catch up and overtake the Nintendites...

WindWaker won with like what 75%? I called 76 in the Oracle...so I aint too upset about that one. I think a lot of us will be way off today though with Half Life not rolling over and playing dead...

Cyko: I agree this division is turning out WAY better than it looked 2 months ago when the brackets came out.

As for Gordy...well Gordon is a flop in the contests..his game is not...what more can be said? Gordon would have trouble with 2nd tier guys like Tails and Scorpion... He could beat bums like CATS and AiAi though...but not by much

Ulti: I would like to see your petition email...any chance you can copy/paste it to this thread? I am sure all the rest of us elites would not mind seeing it...for we all want the best possible contests going forward!

Ulti/Chichiri: Good comments on my "dream bracket", and I cant say I disagree with a lot of them!
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SCK24: 24/28 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/30/2004 7:28:20 AM | Message Detail
Well here we go kiddies :) Time for...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Thats right, the infamous yet humorous commentary is back, to go with all the rest of us here in this, the greatest of threads, the most worthy of postings on this fanboy dominated board.

And so it continues, with overrated going against underrated in the "Modern Era" Division.

Match XXIX

(6)FF Tactics Advance vs (11)Fire Emblem

Steve's Prediction: FFTA by 73.3%
Steve's Bracket: FFTA
Newbie's Pick: Its FF...
Upset Chances: Declined...

Comments: Here we got a rather dull match, with the least interest for me and many others in this division by far. It is a case of overrated vs underrated, and any real RPG'r will know which is which, but Ill explain anyway.

Squaresoft weighs in yet again here in this division with its first GBA offering...FFTA. A game built in the Tactics mold that is raved and praised in RPG circles, this game gives it a modern flair of sorts and does it decently. However, it does not have the special charm FFT had... Its a game, a good game, but nothing solid...but the way some of these kiddies talk and drool all over it...they think its as good as FFVII! Its all in the name...

Fire Emblem...a great name for a great game. Nintendo needs an RPG franchise of its own...this could be it. StarTropics was a failed idea...Illusion of Gaia was left in the SNES dust...Golden Sun shows promise but needs tweaking...but Fire Emblem is on the right track.

The newest game in the entire tourney...the fact that it is here says something... It says those who played it know its good stuff and brought it in here... or it says people put it in the GBA slot cause it was the most recent thing they played and thanks to our lovable nomination system, it is here along with FFTA. Could be both, I think

So both GBA entries go at it then...and the one with the name shall overcome a strong challenger in underrated Fire Emblem. If this was held a year from now it would be scary close...but this year...Emblem has not been around long enough...lotsa casual peeps prolly dont know about it...and this match has had like no discussion on the boards. So...its an easy point, for FFTA...in a low voting total day too...

Probable Results: Crispy! Emblem will burn in the fires of the vanquished...by a 70-30 vote range...

Steve's Moments: FFTA: Just beat it last week...Sword of Mana is next in the Steve gaming pile :) Fire Emblem: You wont regret buying this!

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SCK24: 24/28 Trivia XIII: Diehards Forever
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/30/2004 8:52:17 AM | Message Detail
I'm not at all surprised about HL's performance today. Half-Life is way, way more than Gordon, in fact I'd wager to say half the HL players don't even know who Gordon is! This doesn't spell an untimely disaster for MP next time, though it does make it look very possible. Zelda is a monster, but "celda" still has its haters. I can imagine some people voting for WW because it's an awesome Nintendo game and then not voting for it against MP because both are awesome Nintendo games and one actually looks a hell of a lot cooler. Besides, WW has done the weakest of any Zelda yet. SoA may be an RPG, but up until now the RPG factor hasn't gotten lesser known games past 20% against a decent opponent. Is this just the first half decent opponent for Zelda, or is it something else?
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ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX
And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow
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