 GameSpot GameBoy Advance GameCube PC PlayStation2 Xbox Game Rankings Game Boy Advance GameCube PC PlayStation 2 Xbox |
| Spring 2004 Contest |
| Stats & Discussion - Spring 2004 Contest - Part 3 |
| Team Rocket Elite (33): Board List | Topic List | Log Out | Help |
| This Topic has been marked closed. No additional messages may be posted. |
| First Page | Previous Page | Page 5 of 10 | Next Page | Last Page |
| From: Tsunamis Knight | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:01:36 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:04:07 PM | Message Detail |
| Kingdom Hearts started its comeback well before the site went down. It cut SC`s lead from 700 to just over 300, I think. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:06:12 PM | Message Detail |
| Match Review: Starcraft vs. Halo Best. Match. Ever. Also, since a 16-seed beat a 1-seed, it shows just how screwed up the nominations process was. Will Starcraft be able to take on Kingdom Hearts? I would have laughed at the prospect before today but I wouldn't even care how much it screwed my bracket over if it could actually happen. Match Preview: The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker vs. Skies of Arcadia Wind Waker: It has the Zelda name behind it. It may not be the most loved game of the Zelda series but that won't be detrimental to it in a first-round match. Skies of Arcadia: It's an RPG *but* it's on the Dreamcast. In the end, this match boils down to Gamecube game vs. Dreamcast game. Gamecube wins. My prediction: Wind Waker 70%, Skies of Arcadia 30% Then again, I would have predicted a 65/35 victory today. Whether Soul Calibur's surprising showing is due to SC2, or whether the Dreamcast is more popular than expected, I couldn't say. Tomorrow may be revealing. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 24/25, Next Winner: Kingdom Hearts |
| From: Starion | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:09:57 PM | Message Detail |
| I
think the Dreamcast factor is insignificant. The main reason for SC
performance is due to the successful and well-liked multi-platform Soul
Calibur 2. --- Sp2004 Score:22/25 Today's Pick: KH Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest |
| From: HydraCores | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:11:15 PM | Message Detail |
| Some ppl are just obssesed with Soul Calibur 2.... My friend plays it all the time and when we went to the arcade, he broke the machine.... --- GO vote for your favorite FPS at http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=13835995 |
| From: creativename | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:14:29 PM | Message Detail |
| Kingdom Hearts started its comeback well before the site went down. It cut SC`s lead from 700 to just over 300, I think Yes, the impressive thing about the comeback was how rapid it was. But then, that's how most of these comebacks tend to be, don't they? Also, since a 16-seed beat a 1-seed, it shows just how screwed up the nominations process was. I still think that this nomitation process was, on the whole, better than the one for the characters. You had less overtly preposterous seeding blunders. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:15:18 PM | Message Detail |
| And
now for a quick question: given the poor performance we're currently
seeing out of the 2nd biggest PS2 Square RPG, should FFX still be
considered the favorite to advance from Division 128? Discuss. Absolutely. FFX will get far more support than Kingdom Hearts. KH has neither the fanbase nor the weighty Final Fantasy name brand of FFX. I'm not going to think about it until I see FFX in action against Shenmue. If it does this badly, I'll be extremely worried. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 24/25, Next Winner: Kingdom Hearts |
| From: HydraCores | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:15:21 PM | Message Detail |
| Beeter, but not necessarily good neh? --- GO vote for your favorite FPS at http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=13835995 |
| From: Starion | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:16:44 PM | Message Detail |
| I hope you aren't suggesting that we use this nomination process for the Summer Contest. Characters are different from games. --- Sp2004 Score:22/25 Today's Pick: KH Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:19:29 PM | Message Detail |
| I
still think that this nomitation process was, on the whole, better than
the one for the characters. You had less overtly preposterous seeding
blunders. *Fewer*, perhaps, but those we have are no less preposterous. A 1-seed should never be beaten by a 16-seed (unless seedings are random). If Ceej had just asked us, flat-out, to nominate our top ten favorite games, this would not have happened. Of course, I doubt an era-based division system would work under those conditions. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 24/25, Next Winner: Kingdom Hearts |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:49:22 PM | Message Detail |
| "In the end, this match boils down to Gamecube game vs. Dreamcast game. Gamecube wins." But in a PS2 vs. DC match DC wins? It's obviously not that simple, especially since Skies was also on the GC. These aren't system vs. sytem matches, these are game vs. game matches. Better game (more popular game), not better system (more popular system), wins. Period. --- If all Christians acted like Christ, the whole world would be Christian. - Gandhi And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow |
| From: creativename | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:53:20 PM | Message Detail |
| I hope you aren't suggesting that we use this nomination process for the Summer Contest. Characters are different from games Oh no, certainly not. I think the reason it was better was that he relied more on nominations this time, rather than pulling it largely out of his ass, which is what I suspect he did for the character contests (especially the first one). If Ceej had just asked us, flat-out, to nominate our top ten favorite games, this would not have happened Agreed. The nomination system quirks are the reason for stuff like that. If he does the same thing for the character contest, without quirks, then the seedings should be excellent. I doubt he would do that however...he's probably gonna throw us a few curve balls, divisional set-up/nomination rule-wise. Which means the seedings won't be ideal. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/28/2004 6:57:16 PM | Message Detail |
| No,
he only pulled the first one out of his ass. The second one was based
on nominations and the results of the first SC. This one is as bad as
the first, however, since the seeds are just as badly done. Suffice it
to say, I could have pulled a bracket out of my ass that was just as
good as this one. He should have used reason, but he didn't. I hope to
god he doesn't screw up the SC, but I have a feeling he's going to
group the characters by company or sometihng equally lame. If he avoids
doing something like that while using a fair combination of past
experience + nominations everything will be cool. --- If all Christians acted like Christ, the whole world would be Christian. - Gandhi And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow |
| From: creativename | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:05:00 PM | Message Detail |
| I hope to god he doesn't screw up the SC Man, some people are never happy. Maybe people should stop whining and-- *looks at the main page* *remembers Crono being seeded beneath Kirby* ...er, never mind. :P --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! SC2K4.com |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:07:18 PM | Message Detail |
| But in a PS2 vs. DC match DC wins? Last I checked, the PS2 game was winning. It's obviously not that simple, especially since Skies was also on the GC. Well, you’ve got me there. I didn’t know that. These aren't system vs. sytem matches, these are game vs. game matches. Better game (more popular game), not better system (more popular system), wins. But in matches with such huge differences between the popularity of systems it *does* matter greatly because the latter condition contributes to the former. I'll admit that today's match was a curveball but I tend to believe that was due more to the Soul Calibur II factor. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 24/25, Next Winner: Kingdom Hearts |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:08:58 PM | Message Detail |
| The
match against Starcraft will give us the answers. If KH loses there, it
really IS that weak, and if it wins big, then it was most likely SC2 (I
somehow can't bring myself to believe it). --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 020/025 --- Matches: 20/25 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: KH |
| From: Starion | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:15:38 PM | Message Detail |
| Speaking
of nominations, how about altering the nomination process a little bit
for the Summer contest? CJay will guarantee the 16 characters in the
sweet 16 from 2003. This way, we won't waste our nomination slots on
characters that are assured of getting in anyway. --- Sp2004 Score:22/25 Today's Pick: KH Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:17:16 PM | Message Detail |
| I
just hope he doesn't distribute the top 4 seeds in each division to
these guys if that happens. Alucard and Vercetti are NOT 4-seed
material, and a crapload is borderline as well. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 020/025 --- Matches: 20/25 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: KH |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:19:53 PM | Message Detail |
| ^^^ If that happens, the curse of the 3 seed will definately be alive & well! :P |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:20:39 PM | Message Detail |
| I
think SC2 has a lot to do with this match. When the bracket was first
released, every other poster was asking how SC made the contest instead
of SC2. Personally, I think Ceej made a mistake in not telling us how
the divisions would be placed. Divisions by era is perfectly fine, but
I think him telling us he was planning that would have effected
nominations somewhat. But I`ll perfectly agree that simply giving a top ten would have made no sense for what he was planning. But what he was planning and the way nominations were counted didn`t add up all too well. But whatever, we`re still getting a good contest, and even some bad seeding here and there is better than no contest at all. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:24:59 PM | Message Detail |
| And
by the way, I`m calling metroid out on his semi-promise to make "ULTI
IS OUR GOD" topics. I was damned close to calling that match perfectly
=p smitelf: I remember you saying you wanted to play Kingdom Hearts after I listed Seph`s quotes. Have you ever played the game? Chichiri: I`m all curious now about what your favorite games are. Care to give at least a top five? Slowflake: Nice job on that graph, buddy. And thanks for giving me permission to post it come my analysis. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:30:49 PM | Message Detail |
| smitelf: I remember you saying you wanted to play Kingdom Hearts after I listed Seph`s quotes. Have you ever played the game? Uh, it's in my top ten list, so yes. When was this? Maybe I was saying I wanted to play it again (I did, fairly recently). --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 24/25, Next Winner: Kingdom Hearts |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/28/2004 7:35:51 PM | Message Detail |
| And thanks for giving me permission to post it come my analysis. And when and where will that be? --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 020/025 --- Matches: 20/25 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: KH |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/28/2004 8:05:15 PM | Message Detail |
| In Ultimaterializer`s Post Contest Analysis. Typically such a topic would come post contest. Oh, and a post of mine copied into this topic: Earlier in the contest, some matches had to share the poll with another poll on top of it, and subsequently had problems getting votes. Now that the contest poll is on top of the other one, the contest poll is having no problems whatsoever getting votes. For some reason, I`m not surprised. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/28/2004 8:08:56 PM | Message Detail |
| Hmm,
favorite games list, eh? That tends to change often, it really does. A
top 5, off the top of my head, in no particular order at least for the
moment assuming I'm not forgetting anything: Castlevania SotN Beatmania IIDX (For those that don't know it, it's a "DJ simulator" you have a special controller with a turntable and 7 buttons and as little bars reach the bottom of the screen you press them in time to add notes to the music) Lufia 2 Lunar FFT Yeah, and I could very well be forgetting about any number of games. Let's make it 6 though, and say SoM also. Love that game. --- ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/28/2004 8:11:16 PM | Message Detail |
| See,
this is why I can't make top X lists of my own favorites... I want to
add more. King of Fighters 98 is one of if not my favorite fighitng
game, it probably belongs on a top list as well. Please, stop me, there
are so many good games and I have precious little time to decide which
is my favorite! --- ChichiriMuyo is officially the Discussion Guru Encyclopedia - UltimaterializerX And I'm 23/24 myself. My loss was all part of Alucard's plan. - BigCow |
| From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 4/28/2004 8:30:01 PM | Message Detail |
| FFX will get far more support than Kingdom Hearts. KH has neither the fanbase nor the weighty Final Fantasy name brand of FFX. (emphasis mine) Thinking about it this way, suddenly Chrono Trigger looks like an exceptionally bad pick to reach the finals. While it seems to have the fanbase KH apparently lacks, its connections to the series with which it is assumed to share supporters are arguably more tenuous. Also, today's match proves fighting games aren't dead-on-arrival when facing tough competition in this contest. I suspect Soul Calibur has paved SSB:M's walk to the sweet 16 at least, and shown SSB:M is a viable divisional championship threat. --- The GameFAQs Summer Contest 2003 Fanfiction Project: http://crolapras.tripod.com/ffproj.html SpC2K4: 23/25 (190/192 possible) |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/28/2004 8:35:46 PM | Message Detail |
| Glad you enjoyed my quote about you, Chi :) And I figured you`d like more of the obscure titles. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/28/2004 8:37:19 PM | Message Detail |
| Oh and Slowflake, you must pick up Starcraft posthaste. Even if you wind up not being good at the game, I think you`ll like it. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: charmander6000 | Posted: 4/28/2004 9:14:21 PM | Message Detail |
| LoZ: WW vs. SoA This match will probably be the easiest to predict in this divison. WW will probably begin with a high percent, then SoA will be gaining in percent (not lead) until around 4:00am then WW will be starting to gain percent throughout the day and then it's percent gain will start to slow down in the beginning of the evening votes and WW will probably start to lose some percent near the end of the poll. That's what I think the poll will go like. Prediction: 81%-19% for WW --- LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC My Score 22/25 KH vs. SC |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/28/2004 9:15:47 PM | Message Detail |
| I think it`ll be a slightly lower % for WW, but still a blowout win. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/28/2004 9:19:39 PM | Message Detail |
| I`m thinking Wind Waker will manage 78.21% of the vote. --- Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End He who hesitates is lost. |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/28/2004 10:00:55 PM | Message Detail |
| I
am too tired now heh, but look for my top 5 games here tomorrow, just
for the fun of it :) As well as the next piece of satirical
commentary...Prime & Half Life I believe is next on my tally to
comment on :) This announcement was brought to you by Steve Illumina...standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years! ^_^ --- SC2K4: 22/26! Read my Satirical Contest Commentary! Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/28/2004 10:14:51 PM | Message Detail |
| Another of my posts: This match can be looked at two ways. The obvious of which is that KH is weaker than thought, but I disagree. I simply think that we all forgot just how big a hit Soul Calibur 2 really was, and frankly, the fact that Kingdom Hearts held this rush off shows that it might not be that weak at all. It`s just that Soul Calibur as a series is damned strong. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: nh82 | Posted: 4/29/2004 12:20:17 AM | Message Detail |
| It
seems I'm joining the growing throng of people who are suddenly
dissatisfied with their brackets after these last two matches... The poster who brought up Chrono Trigger brings up a valid point - I think I bought into the board hype there (being European, I've only played it through via ROM and somehow that never seems to have the magic of playing the original for me). Am beginning to wish I'd placed more trust in SMB3. The two second round matches I'm most fearing at the moment are my picks of Goldeneye over SOTN (actually I had Goldeneye over PD since I've never played SOTN and felt like being especially stubborn by not listening to anyone else's opinions!) and Kingdom Hearts over 'Halo'. I'd be most upset if two games I had out in the first round actually advance to the third... :( |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 12:27:58 AM | Message Detail |
| The board hype for Chrono Trigger is warranted. I feel the only game that can stop it from reaching the finals is LTTP. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: almightyblue | Posted: 4/29/2004 12:30:49 AM | Message Detail |
| nh82, I don't think you have to worry about GoldenEye losing. GoldenEye was twice as popular as Perfect Dark was, And SOTN barely won as it was. As for the KH, Sc, SC, and Halo foursome, it doesn't matter who wins, as it will lose to MP or WW in the next round. |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 12:50:31 AM | Message Detail |
| Soul
Calibur`s performance today told me that SSBM (a damned good fighting
game) might have a shot at taking down FFX (Square RPG). Here`s to hope. And Chichiri, do me a favor? Actually, wait, you probably know this already. What are the current prices on Xenogears, Symphony of the Night, and Chrono Cross? --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 4/29/2004 4:33:07 AM | Message Detail |
| Alright, I've been working on update stats today; mainly I wanted to determine for each game whether it is a night
game or not. More precisely, I've computed the percentage of votes each
game gained between 1:00 and 3:00 AM, relative to their overall vote
total over the day. I don't think this depends heavily on the opponent
- if night people like both games, then both of their night total are
likely to increase. This gives the following results: 6.831% Suikoden 2 6.677% Panzer Dragon Saga 6.135% Street Fighter 2 6.104% Secret of Mana 6.000% Fallout 2 5.868% Gunstar Heroes 5.794% NiGHTs into Dreams... 5.513% Chrono Trigger 5.481% Final Fantasy 6 5.429% Phantasy Star 5.196% Super Mario 64 5.139% Final Fantasy 7 5.007% Pac-Man 4.928% Goldeneye 4.893% Mortal Kombat 4.845% Doom 4.820% Donkey Kong 4.802% Adventure 4.790% Symphony of the Night 4.674% River City Ransom 4.657% Pong 4.574% Phantasy Star 4 4.569% Metroid 4.556% Contra 4.550% Tetris 4.542% Final Fantasy 4.530% Super Mario World 4.501% Metal Gear 4.422% Pitfall 4.420% Link to the Past 4.390% Super Mario RPG 4.275% Earthbound 4.269% Legend of Zelda 4.030% Super Mario Bros 3 4.026% Super Metroid 3.935% Ocarina of Time 3.665% Xenogears 3.623% Duck Hunt 3.622% The Simpsons 3.576% Perfect Dark 3.544% Starcraft 3.162% Pokemon 2.971% Galaga 2.856% Halo ? Sonic 2 ? Shining Force ? Final Fantasy Tactics ? Dance Dance Revolution ? Metal Gear Solid ? Resident Evil These results look mostly pretty accurate. At the top of the list, we have RPGs and cult classic, while near the bottom, we meet more mainstream games (including Zelda and Mario). There are a few strange occurences though. Galaga (2.971%) I know nothing about this game, but I would have thought it to be the type that would be favored by night votes. Halo (2.856%) and Starcraft (3.544%) Seems like rallying (or cheating...) was very effective during the day. Halo ends up with a lower % because it's weaker during the night. Anyway, time to use this for some prediction. Namely the all-important one. FF7 (5.139%) VS OoT (3.935%). The night will belong to FF7, while OoT will dominate the day. With more than 1% percent difference, if this model holds up, FF7 will have to take a sizeable lead during the night to have a chance. I'll see through the second round if this analysis work; this should make it easier to predict match outcomes after only 3 hours of vote. --- Sign my petition! http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=13754679 |
| From: cyko | Posted: 4/29/2004 4:37:40 AM | Message Detail |
| no
surpises in today's match, thankfully. although, i half-expected Skies
of Arcadia to have 50.1% when i signed on this morning. just to follow
in the pattern of the last two matches. Top 5 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage) 1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda over Adventure 2) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes 3) 75.28% - Final Fantasy over Pitfall 4) 72.62% - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2 5) 71.26% - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2 Top 5 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes) 1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda over Adventure 2) 78272 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP over Gunstar Heroes 3) 76348 - Final Fantasy 7 over Suikoden 2 4) 74682 - Final Fantasy over Pitfall 5) 69753 - Legend of Zelda: OOT over Fallout 2 Top 5 Closest Matches (difference in percentage) 1) 0.14% - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt 2) 0.34% - Starcraft over Halo 3) 1.20% - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur 4) 6.36% - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark * 5) 12.48% - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2 Top 5 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes) 1) 143 - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt 2) 373 - Starcraft over Halo 3) 1088 - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur 4) 4883 - Castlvania: SotN over Perfect Dark * 5) 11114 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C * Top 5 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals) 1) 112889 - Halo vs. Starcraft 2) 107150 - Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2 3) 99194 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall 4) 97580 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure 5) 97285 - Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons Top 5 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals) 1) 69876 - Xenogears over Pokemon G/S/C * 2) 72743 - Metroid vs. Pac-Man * 3) 74556 - Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metal Gear * 4) 74688 - Metal Gear Solid vs. Resident Evil * 5) 75583 - Goldeneye 007 vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga * Top 5 Least Popular Polls without an Extra PotD (by vote totals) 1) 84501 - Tetris vs. Galaga 2) 84664 - Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star 4 3) 84804 - Pong vs. River City Ransom 4) 86418 - Earthbound vs. Doom 5) 90152 - Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur Top 5 Highest Individual Votes 1) 92894 - Legend of Zelda 2) 91749 - Final Fantasy 7 3) 86938 - Final Fantasy 4) 86690 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP 5) 82903 - Legend of Zelda: OOT Top 5 Lowest Individual Votes 1) 4686 - Adventure 2) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes 3) 12256 - Pitfall 4) 12375 - Nights * 5) 13150 - Fallout 2 Top 5 Most Impressive Losers (by votes) 1) 56258 - Halo 2) 48444 - Duck Hunt 3) 44532 - Soul Calibur 4) 42314 - Street Fighter 2 5) 37127 - Earthbound Top 5 Least Impressive Winners (by votes) 1) 40495 - Xenogears * 2) 40813 - Castlevania: SotN * 3) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts 4) 48587 - Donkey Kong 5) 49291 - Doom Top 5 Least Impressive Winners without an Extra PotD (by votes) 1) 45620 - Kingdom Hearts 2) 48587 - Donkey Kong 3) 49291 - Doom 4) 54390 - Super Mario RPG 5) 55593 - Contra Top 5 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner) 1) still, no data yet..... ever......... bleh....... 2) 3) 4) 5) Top 5 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner) 1) no data yet...... hopefully soon......... please.......... 2) 3) 4) 5) * = shared PotD with GameRiot or ESPN or FFXI poll --- Current Score: 22/24 (through OOT vs Fallout 2) ?????/????? with ???? other people A WINNER of Trivia 12 |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:24:41 AM | Message Detail |
| With
more than 1% percent difference, if this model holds up, FF7 will have
to take a sizeable lead during the night to have a chance. Since you were considering the votes between 1 AM and 3 AM, doesn't it mean that OoT is the one that has to take a sizeable lead in the day so FFVII's late night vote won't win it the match? --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 25/26, Next Winner: The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:41:22 AM | Message Detail |
| I`m
unconvinced that the day vote will belong to anyone in that match.
There will be so much spamming going on that we might crack the 160,000
vote barrier, in which case you can`t possibly predict where all the
votes will come from. That match will be bloody murder for 24 hours. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:43:48 AM | Message Detail |
| Well, I'm talking mostly about lead in percentage, not votes. Say, for example if FF7 gets the same number of votes than OoT between 1 AM and 3 AM; according to this model, it means that overall, OoT will get more votes on the whole day. Actually, let's have an example. Suppose there are 6000 votes overall between 1 AM and 3 AM. Note x the number of votes of OoT in this lapse of time, and y the number of votes of FF7. Then according to this model, OoT will get 100*x/3.935 votes at the end of the day, while FF7 will get only 100*y/5.139 To tie OoT, FF7 will need to have 100*y/5.139 = 100*x/3.935 votes Combining it with x + y = 6000, we get x = 2602 and y = 3398, giving FF7 a percentage of 56.6% of the votes during this lapse - that's this kind of lead I'm talking about. Actually no matter the overall number of votes between 1 AM and 3 AM, the threshold will be 56.6%. I think it's a little high, but this is a very speculative model. I wouldn't be surprised if FF7 and OoT's values were actually closer. But even with something like 4.9 for FF7 and 4.1 for OoT, FF7 would need 54.4% of the votes between 1 AM and 3 AM to win. --- Sign my petition! http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=13754679 |
| From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:44:18 AM | Message Detail |
| Of course this is not taking spamming and rallying into account. --- Sign my petition! http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=13754679 |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/29/2004 6:56:11 AM | Message Detail |
| Well here we go kiddies :) Time for... Steve Illumina Speaks Thats right, the infamous yet humorous commentary is back, to go with all the rest of us here in this, the greatest of threads, the most worthy of postings on this fanboy dominated board. And so it continues, with the death of a dream in the "Modern Era" Division. Match XXVIII (4)Metroid Prime vs (13)Half-Life Steve's Prediction: Metroid Prime by 70.4% Steve's Bracket: Metroid Prime Newbie's Pick: Nintendo! Upset Chances: Give it up, PC, you had your day in the sun! Comments: Here we got arguably the Cube's best pure game taking on the beacon of the modern era PC FPS genre. The success of the little black (or blue or platinum heh) box is owed to a few key games, and one of them is Metroid Prime. This fine game, which is now getting press again for its multiplayer enhanced sequel, is a solid piece of Nintendo engineering, and really carries no hate. Obviously, its no Halo. People aint ashamed on this site to admit they played and loved Prime... Half-Life...now if we were to carbon date the development time of its highly anticipated sequel, the resulting number would be quite close to the supposed development of not yet officially cancelled Duke Nukem Forever. Half Life 2 is takin pretty much forever...and it is angering the PC elite. Note: PC elite are classified as the Alienware diehards who spend thousands on a video card...hundreds more on a joystick...and pay the price with their social existence. For them, a frag is a date, a victory is a life's accomplishment. And a Dell Dimension XPS is a 'poor man's rig' Whateva... Half Life 2 is a fading icon...its sequel is marked by delays...stolen code...bad initial impressions...developer's quitting...company buyout rumors...you name it and it has happened. Doom 3 later this year could put Half Life even further on the back burner...lets hope there aint a gas leak, eh? Probable Results: This routine match will go the old 70-30 split, in favor of Samus Aran de la Metroid. Nintendites, raise thy banner again! Steve's Moments: Prime: Sequel will be better than the original...I can feel it! Half Life: No moments to speak of, I prefer Unreal. --- SC2K4: 21/25! Read my Satirical Contest Commentary! Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 7:07:51 AM | Message Detail |
| So
you think FF7 will actually have to make a comeback in that match? I
don`t know, man. Every time Link tried making a push during the
afternoon last year, Cloud smacked him around again. --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 4/29/2004 7:18:10 AM | Message Detail |
| Well,
actually that's the over way around. I think FF7 will have to take a
sufficient enough lead to not be worried about OoT's comeback
afterwards. That's just a stats theory of course, plus there are many factors that could influence its validity. Nevertheless, I look forward to seeing how well this model will hold. --- Sign my petition! http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=13754679 |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/29/2004 7:23:51 AM | Message Detail |
| In
other news, I uploaded the Soul Calibur/KH graphs. Interesting... the
patterns are less pronounced than Halo/Starcraft or DK/DH. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 021/026 --- Matches: 21/26 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Wind Waker |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/29/2004 7:56:44 AM | Message Detail |
| Oh, and I feel like reseeding the bracket. So I will. Division 8 (1) The Legend of Zelda (16) Adventure (8) Contra (9) Pac Man (5) Tetris (12) Metal Gear (4) Metroid (13) Phantasy Star (6) Duck Hunt (11) Pong (3) Final Fantasy (14) River City Ransom (7) Donkey Kong (10) Galaga (2) Super Mario Brothers 3 (15) Pitfall! Division 16 (1) Chrono Trigger (16) Gunstar Heroes (8) Street Fighter 2 (9) Mortal Kombat (5) Super Metroid (12) Earthbound (4) Super Mario World (13) Phantasy Star IV (6) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (11) Doom (3) Final Fantasy 6 (14) The Simpsons (7) Super Mario RPG (10) Secret of Mana (2) The Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past (15) Shining Force Division 32-64 (1) Final Fantasy 7 (16) Panzer Dragoon Saga (8) Perfect Dark (9) Xenogears (5) Final Fantasy Tactics (12) Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal (4) Metal Gear Solid (13) Fallout 2 (6) Goldeneye (11) Suikoden II (3) Super Mario 64 (14) Dance Dance Revolution (7) Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (10) Resident Evil (2) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (15) NiGHTS into dreams... Division 128 (1) Super Smash Brothers: Melee (16) Shenume (8) Kingdom Hearts (9) Halo: Combat Evolved (5) Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty (12) Half-Life (4) Metroid Prime (13) Skies of Arcadia (6) Starcraft (11) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic (3) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (14) Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced (7) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (10) Soul Calibur (2) Final Fantasy X (15) Fire Emblem --- Boards Hunted: 4098 I would like to take this moment to politely and sincerely orgasm over Ulti's Halo/Starcraft analysis. -smitelf |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/29/2004 8:00:55 AM | Message Detail |
| Ulti...I agree 100% with that seeding. Not one complaint...its perfect. That would have been a FAR BETTER tourney. So I, Steve Illumina, anoint you with my light of wisdom! --- SC2K4: 22/26! Read my Satirical Contest Commentary! Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years |
| Jump to Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |