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| Spring 2004 Contest |
| Stats & Discussion - Spring 2004 Contest - Part 2 |
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| From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/19/2004 8:17:48 AM | Message Detail |
| Well here we go kiddies :) Time for... Steve Illumina Speaks Thats right, the infamous yet humorous commentary is back, to go with all the rest of us here in this, the greatest of threads, the most worthy of postings on this fanboy dominated board. And so it continues, with a hop skip and a jig in the "Golden Age" Division Match XIX (5)Final Fantasy Tactics vs (12)Dance Dance Revolution Steve's Prediction: FF Tactics by 86.6% Steve's Bracket: FFT Newbie's Pick: Britney's Dance Beat Upset Chances: Go do the Macarena! No upsets tonight! Comments: Here we got one of Square's most original and brilliant games against perhaps the last true arcade phenomenon. Not too much to say here really. FF Tactics is well liked by those who played it, and by those who have not that are RPGers, the FF name will be all they need to see. And the contrast in styles here is overwhelming. RPG vs Dancing? Role Playing vs Butt Wiggling? Call it what you will...but in the end, Tactics will do the Locomotion indeed, all over DDR. So who will vote for DDR? Kids maybe? Little girls? Arcade owners who made money off the game? Gee, I dunno. I said 86.6%...but that may be too LOW. Either way, should be the biggest margin of victory ever for a 5 vs 12 match. Get the next one up here! This match is over before it begins. Probable Results: Its not a question of who wins, its by how much. DDR and all its clones and sequels are doomed. Steve's Moments: FF Tactics: Delita...Algus...Wiegraf..oh my! DDR: Ill stick with running, its better for ya and costs less! --- SC2K4: 15/17! Read my Satirical Contest Commentary! Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:05:56 AM | Message Detail |
| Are the rumors true about not being able to vote in the match poll if you vote in the top one first? --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 17/17, Next Winner: Pokemon |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:07:22 AM | Message Detail |
| Only if you're not registered, actually. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 013/017 --- Matches: 13/17 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Xenogears |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:10:25 AM | Message Detail |
| Only if you're not registered, actually. *blinks* Excuse me? Are you telling me that almost all of the casual vote has been eliminated from this match? --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 17/17, Next Winner: Pokemon |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:11:28 AM | Message Detail |
| Pretty much. That would be why Xenogears is winning. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 013/017 --- Matches: 13/17 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Xenogears |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:15:20 AM | Message Detail |
| Thanks for your prompt replies, Slow. If it is not possible for everyone who comes to the site to vote due then this match should be invalidated. Period. Whatever is going wrong needs to be fixed. I don't care who wins as long as they win fairly, and that is impossible for either game under these conditions. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 17/17, Next Winner: Pokemon |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:38:17 AM | Message Detail |
| Phew. Ceej took the poll down. Good job, CJay! I apologize for ever doubting you (not that you're reading this...) --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 17/17, Next Winner: Pokemon |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:39:54 AM | Message Detail |
| Now I guess Pokémon is a lock for facing FF7. Another loss for me... I better start praying for SOTN. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 013/017 --- Matches: 13/17 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Xenogears |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:41:51 AM | Message Detail |
| Now I guess Pokémon is a lock for facing FF7. Xenogears could still win tomorrow. It was leading today by a significant margin, after all. I don't necessarily think today's...err, "pre-poll" shows an automatic victory for Pokemon. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 17/17, Next Winner: Pokemon |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:41:54 AM | Message Detail |
| I applaud Ceej for doing this, it's only fair that we get a real vote count out of this... |
| From: Starion | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:43:36 AM | Message Detail |
| Are the predictors split on the SOTN match or something? I personally thought this was an easy to call match. --- Sp2004 Score:16/17 Today's Pick: Pokemon Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest |
| From: Starion | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:44:52 AM | Message Detail |
| Probably
not. However, consider that Pokemon won a few updates and that
Xenogears didn't exactly gain large amounts in a lot of the updates.
This match could go either way really. --- Sp2004 Score:16/17 Today's Pick: Pokemon Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 9:45:44 AM | Message Detail |
| Xenogears'
going to have a really tough time tomorrow, I can tell you this much.
It was only leading by 1000 after 10000... and 15000 votes were
missing. All Pokémon needs is to win 8000-7000 in the missing votes to
win, and I think that since most of the casual vote was chopped off,
this could be done easily. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 013/017 --- Matches: 13/17 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Xenogears |
| From: torey luvullo | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:03:39 AM | Message Detail |
| actually, this is a rare opportunity. there has never before been a vote of a segment of the voting population, followed by a "re-vote" of the entire poopulation. there will never be a clearer picture of how the "hardcore" differs from the "casual", both as to quantity and as to the substantive voting patterns. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:16:00 AM | Message Detail |
| Are
you insane slowflake? You and I both know that Pokemon has some of the
busiest gameboards on this site. What does that tell you? How about,
let's see, a ton of pokemon fans are registeed users? Or how about...
more registered users are hardcore Pokefans? If they have the busier
boards they have more fanatcal support, if their fanatical support
can't beat Xenogears what happens when the casual gamers come on,
remember that they were a fan of Pokemon 4 years ago but are "too grown
up" for it now, and then vote for anything that isn't Pokemon? Pokemon
should have had it with the registered users if it was going to have
it. We both know that if a game's core fanbase isn't big enough to beat
out its non-fanbase when only registered users can vote then it's in
trouble. You may think casual voters will support pokemon, but on
GameFAQs its fanbase is more towards the hardcore. Only the hardcore
fans can brave the "kiddie" lable and still play pokemon, everyone else
that used to like it will have been influenced by their "cool" friends
into hating it. It's the same backlash as Dragon Ball Z, or anything
else that gets big with the 10 year olds. Once they turn 13, they're
too cool for that kiddie stuff. Xenogears is more likely the one to
benefit from the casual voters. Xenogears has no hate-base worth
mentioning. In fact, I don't think it has a hate-base at all. But
pokemon does, and that could hurt it a lot more than the registered
voters did. --- If all Christians acted like Christ, the whole world would be Christian. - Gandhi |
| From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:19:32 AM | Message Detail |
| This
is all well thought-out, Chichiri, but you're forgetting something. The
casual voter probably doesn't know Xenogears. Meaning it will mostly
amount to how much Pokémon anti-votes it can gather. And I have enough
faith in humanity to believe that hate isn't what drives the majority
of us. --- I'd rather be damned for my own beliefs, than be damned for someone else's. - Shake [This sig has been approved by UltimaterializerX] |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:20:34 AM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:20:58 AM | Message Detail |
| That's what just crossed my mind as well. The anti-vote may not have hit in full force either. ...This match is by no means decided. But somehow I'd tend to favor Pokémon. It was just too close. Oh and please, paragraphs next time. ;) --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 013/017 --- Matches: 13/17 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Xenogears |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:39:42 AM | Message Detail |
| Hate
drives this entire board, my friend. Look at Cloud in the tier
tournament. Only hate could do that to a character who otherwise would
dominate with a larger group of voters. Then, if you think board-hate
for Cloud is bad... imagine the intensity that hate for Pokemon can
rise to. Cloud is hated on this board for being a well-liked character
from a well like game.... Pokemon.... you can't get bigger than it did
with kids of that age. It's not even possible at this time in this
country to get bigger than that. So then, imagine, the huge backlash
that causes when it stops being cool. The bigger it is, the harder it
falls with the casual followers. Kids who watched it religiously when
they were ten hate it religiously when they are 12. When a fad is that
big anyone who doesn't like it to begin with (like our local FF7
haters) will trash it at every possible opportunity. Once the fad
begins to fade people who used to love it will trash it even worse than
the people who never even liked it. Why it happens, I don't know, but
it is apparently a part of the human psyche. Maybe the original haters
influence fans into "realizing it's kiddie" and to cover up the fact
that they ever liked Pokemon they hate it. Who knows. The point,
however, is that amoung registered users there are far more hardcore
Pokemon fans than Xenogears fans but still it couldn't take the lead. I'd be willing to bet that registered users are quite indicative of non-registered users, and that the final results of the poll with non-registered users voting will not be more than 10% off for either game. Sure, that leaves enough room for a reversal... but it also leaves room for a much wider margin of defeat. The Nielsen ratings use something like .0002% of the population and yet statistically it's considered an accurate measure for the rest of the country's TV viewing habits. I can't see that poll representing less than 20% of the regular votes, and while it maybe subject to various factors I think the extremely large sample pool negates most imbalances. If the demographics of the sample pool leans more towards Pokemon (much more active boards mean a greater number of active pokemon fans than active Xenogears fans) yet it still isn't able to come across as a clear leader then it seems rather unlikely that the remaining portion would cause a reversal (I've heard talk that the poll was representing half the normal voters but I didn't do any math to check it). If the "sample pool" was really as high as 50% then there isn't any reason to believe Pokemon can win. That's not to discount the possibility, but statistically speaking the results were clear enough that there should be no doubt. Slowflake, however, does seem to doubt every match (perhaps with reason :p) in which he picks an unclear contestant as the winner. Chicken Little, the sky isn't falling yet. --- If all Christians acted like Christ, the whole world would be Christian. - Gandhi |
| From: Starion | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:41:39 AM | Message Detail |
| The
Nielsen polls are actually quite flawed. Advertisers have been
complaining for years about their system. Their people meters are much
better metrics. --- Sp2004 Score:16/17 Today's Pick: Pokemon Nominate Death for the 2004 Character Contest |
| From: therealmnm | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:46:42 AM | Message Detail |
| I
wouldn't be surprised at all if Xenogears won this. There may be some
things about Xenogears that people may not think about.... Remember around 1997-98 when Playstation was beginning to find it's niche in the industry? That's when a lot of my friends purchased their PS2. What demo came along with the PS2? FF7.... I admit that I was hooked on FF6 and turned off when I saw all the futuristic stuff in FF7. What? Only THREE people in the party? What? A red dog??? A guy with a big sword? But then I got my hands on the demo. The next month, I bought FF7. Fast forward... I got Brave Fencer Musashi and played the FF8 demo. (Yes, Mushashi is actually a DECENT game!) Playing the demo enticed me to get FF8. The same thing applied to Xenogears. I played the demo and it enticed me to get the game! Squaresoft did get access to a lot of people through their chain of demos (a genius move.... I don't know why they stopped). This caused people to gain interest in a bunch of games which would have otherwise been limited to obscurity: Brave Fencer Musashi Xenogears Final Fantasy Tactics (video, okay and it had the FF name) Saga Frontier (video) Front Mission 3 Threads of Fate and to a lesser extent, due to advertising (not demos) Parasite Eve Vagrant Story Anyways, my point is that games that may seem obscure now may not have been all so. It's just that the older games that are well known now are so because those games had STAYING power. I'm not arguing the popularity of Xenogears vs. Pokemon (I shamefully played and mastered Pokemon Snap also.....). I'm just showing that some of these games are KNOWN to the general population more than most people think. On a side note... why HAVE gaming companies slowed down on the demos? Are they scared that people will realize that their game SUCKS? On the other hand, there are games that are probably EXCELLENT that I probably will never play. BRING BACK DEMOS! Anyways, this is just a diversion until the contest gets back underway. --- "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't." |
| From: Z1mZum | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:53:41 AM | Message Detail |
| I'm not sure if anyone has noticed this or not, so I'll say it anyway. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1618 There's a link to the full bracket and it looked like CJay made the brackets look a little more slick than they used to. Still no statistics, but its something. --- Mega Man in the Summer Contest '04? You better believe it! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 11:54:59 AM | Message Detail |
| He added "view the full bracket". No more whining about this. Maybe the stats are coming soon? --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 013/017 --- Matches: 13/17 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Xenogears |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 12:01:49 PM | Message Detail |
| I
used th Nielsen rating to point out that a 40% sample pool carries with
it a great deal of accuracy. If .0002% is a large enough pool to decide
what we as Americans will be having a season 2 of, then 40% is a pretty
good picture of what should happen tomorrow. --- If all Christians acted like Christ, the whole world would be Christian. - Gandhi |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 12:05:38 PM | Message Detail |
| I'm
not sure I like the new way the brackets look... I guess I'll only be
pleased when it finally shows my red and green blocks and all the nifty
stats I wanna see. --- If all Christians acted like Christ, the whole world would be Christian. - Gandhi |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 12:07:09 PM | Message Detail |
| However, these 40% weren't picked among all classes. Registered users and unregistered ones might vote differently. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 013/017 --- Matches: 13/17 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Xenogears |
| From: therealmnm | Posted: 4/19/2004 12:08:45 PM | Message Detail |
| Question,
if anyone wants to bother to answer. Are Pokemon G/S/C the top selling
pokemon games? I don't know about anyone else, but personally I liked
R/B/Y better. The pokemon in that game were more memorable. Think about
it.... what are the first pokemon you think of when the topic is
brought up? Are you thinking Pikachu, Charizard, MewTwo? Or are you
thinking Marill, Typlosion (sp?), and Lugia? Just a random thought... --- "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't." |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 12:13:23 PM | Message Detail |
| Yes,
Slowflake, but board activity suggests that Pokemon should have been
dominant over Xenogears in that sample pool (which looks to be about
25% or so, comparing to FF7's match and adding a little since it would
never get as high as a match with a FF game). If Pokemon couldn't take
Xenogears in a group that should have been biased towards Pokemon, the
unknown factor of non-registered users voting probably isn't enough to
reverse the match. --- If all Christians acted like Christ, the whole world would be Christian. - Gandhi |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/19/2004 1:37:16 PM | Message Detail |
| Chichiri: Are you insane slowflake? You and I both know that Pokemon has some of the busiest gameboards on this site. What does that tell you? How about, let's see, a ton of pokemon fans are registeed users? Or how about... more registered users are hardcore Pokefans? What? How does this concern the casual vote *at all*? That’s what will (or will not) turn the match around. If they have the busier boards they have more fanatcal support, if their fanatical support can't beat Xenogears what happens when the casual gamers come on, remember that they were a fan of Pokemon 4 years ago but are "too grown up" for it now, and then vote for anything that isn't Pokemon? If you’re smart enough to look at the Message Board rankings then I would hope you could look just slightly above that at the FAQ rankings, which is what the casual voters actually contribute to (as they are here to look at FAQ pages). Now, tell me which games are first on all the GameBoy boards. Yes, that’s right. I’m sorry if I’m snapping at you but you have no idea how many times I’ve had to point this out. Xenogears has no hate-base worth mentioning. In fact, I don't think it has a hate-base at all. *raises hand* Hate drives this entire board, my friend. And people on the Sp2k4 message board have absolutely nothing to do with the casual vote. Yes, Slowflake, but board activity suggests that Pokemon should have been dominant over Xenogears in that sample pool (which looks to be about 25% or so, comparing to FF7's match and adding a little since it would never get as high as a match with a FF game). If Pokemon couldn't take Xenogears in a group that should have been biased towards Pokemon, the unknown factor of non-registered users voting probably isn't enough to reverse the match. I want some of what you’re smoking, Chichiri, if you think board users are biased toward Pokemon. Just because the Pokemon boards are more populated than the Xenogears board doesn’t mean that more registered users like Pokemon than Xenogears. That argument completely fallacious. Why would everyone who had ever liked Xenogears be hanging around at the message board of a 5+-year-old game? Hell, I love Final Fantasy X and would vote for it against almost anything but you're not going to see me hanging around on its message board. All that having a bigger message board population means is that there are more hardcore Pokemon fans than hardcore Xenogears fans. Neither of these hardcore groups make up a significant amount of the registered users, let alone of the voting population, and using them as your sample leads to obviously flawed results. I agree with the poster who said that this would be an interesting experiment – it will be the closest we will ever come to finding out just how much of an impact the casual, unregistered user has on the matches. Oh, and just because I feel like posting this one more time in the hopes that at least one new person will begin to understand: HATRED OF PIKACHU =/= HATRED OF POKEMON --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 17/17, Next Winner: Pokemon |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/19/2004 1:57:06 PM | Message Detail |
| Oh, and just because I feel like posting this one more time in the hopes that at least one new person will begin to understand: HATRED OF PIKACHU =/= HATRED OF POKEMON Precisely. ^_^ --- Nintendo® - The Beginning and the End "Okay... first the crying... THEN the rage!" - Link |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 4/19/2004 2:21:00 PM | Message Detail |
| actually,
this is a rare opportunity. there has never before been a vote of a
segment of the voting population, followed by a "re-vote" of the entire
poopulation. Yeah, this is great. It's too bad that we didn't get more of the fabled morning vote before the poll was closed though. Oh well, it should still provide some interesting insight. If the demographics of the sample pool leans more towards Pokemon (much more active boards mean a greater number of active pokemon fans than active Xenogears fans) yet it still isn't able to come across as a clear leader then it seems rather unlikely that the remaining portion would cause a reversal I think you're placing far too much importance on the specific game boards. What percent of the voting population do you think visits the Pokémon boards? Or the Xenogears boards? Not many, I'd wager. I think we can safely dismiss their influence almost entirely. The real question is, how does the average registered GameFAQs voter (who doesn't visit either specific board) vote? I think every voter knows what Pokémon is, and that registered voters are much more likely to know what Xenogears is than non-registered. Which means Pokémon would be more likely to get the non-registered boost in this case (assuming it isn't out-weighed by non-registered anti-votes). However: I'd be willing to bet that registered users are quite indicative of non-registered users I agree with that. I find it hard to imagine that the difference is great enough to significantly influence the poll. I think Pokémon will do a little better, but not by enough to take the lead by this point. Of course, this is entirely excluding the potential effect of the morning vote... --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 2:24:57 PM | Message Detail |
| From
what little we saw of the morning vote, it happened it two times...
Pokémon maintained the gap in terms of votes, then Xenogears increased
its lead, maintaining its percentage. Conclusion: Tomorrow's redo is going to be hell. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 013/017 --- Matches: 13/17 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Xenogears |
| From: cyko | Posted: 4/19/2004 2:42:41 PM | Message Detail |
| Xenogears has no hate-base worth mentioning. In fact, I don't think it has a hate-base at all. *raises hand* *raises hand also* that's two analysts in this topic alone that hate Xenogears. and i'm quite positive that smitelf and i are not the only two people to be bitterly disappointed in Xenogear's second disc. I agree with the poster who said that this would be an interesting experiment – it will be the closest we will ever come to finding out just how much of an impact the casual, unregistered user has on the matches. i thought those vote totals seemed ridiculously low when i left for work. i wrote it off as a result of that other poll. now, after learning of the bug in today's match, i am looking forward to this rematch. finally, we get to test the theory of "the Casual Voter" and how the casual vote usually goes to the more recognizable game. if the match results are the same as today's was going, then there is no such thing as a "Casual Voter." their votes would match up the same as the bracket voters and board members, because honestly, those are the only two types of people who are going to bother to look for the match and sign in to vote for it. however, if the match results are considerably different, then the "Casual Voter" does have a different opinion, which tends to go towards the more widely played game, which would be Pokemon. i have a hard time believing that the casual voter will be as likely to have played Xenogears as Pokemon. in fact, when i made my original pick, i was counting on the casual voters deciding this match. if it was board members only, i would've expected Xenogears to win with a slim lead; which is right where it ended earlier today. if the Casual Voters do exist, then by this time tomorrow, Pokemon will be ahead by a comfortable margin. --- Current Score: 16/17 (through FF7 vs Suikoden 2) ?????/????? with ???? other people A WINNER of Trivia 12 |
| From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/19/2004 2:48:48 PM | Message Detail |
| Match #17 Review: ... Match #17.5 Review: Yippee! My perfect bracket may yet have a chance! Match #18 Preview: C'mon, Pokemon...I believe in ya... --- "Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle." -Toad in Super Mario Bros. |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 4/19/2004 4:21:28 PM | Message Detail |
| Does
anybody believe rally votes will play a large part in the redo
tommorow? Pokemon GSC was on the losing side of the poll. So Pokemon
fans know that if they don't do something, Pokemon might lose the redo.
Since just about everybody has heard of Pokemon, and there are well
over a dozen fairly large Pokemon communities, its not overly difficult
to find places for more Pokemon votes. Assuming the match tommorow is
closer than the one today, 2000-3000 more votes could make the
difference. --- ''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...'' ''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...'' |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/19/2004 5:10:01 PM | Message Detail |
| I
doubt rallying will be a big factor for either side. It's too early in
the contest to see that kind of thing and it usually only happens in
either a clash of the titans (e.g. Crono vs. Mario) or for an
uber-cultish character like CATS. I don't think it makes much of a
difference in either case, anyway. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 17/17, Next Winner: Pokemon |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/19/2004 5:42:22 PM | Message Detail |
| Well,
I saw that Xenogears was winning this morning in a nailbiter, so I
thought about the match a bit at school, and this is what happens when
I get home. :( Wow, only the registered members' votes counted, huh? Now we know that about 2/3 of the votes are from casual visitors (someone get a more accurate proportion, please)...that's a lot. If Xenogears gets 54% on Pokemon with just the message board users, then all the casual voters need to do is vote 52% in favor of Pokemon for it to win. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/19/2004 5:48:27 PM | Message Detail |
| And
whether it can do it or not will depend on whether the casual voter
honestly liked Pokémon or if he thinks he's too cool for that. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 013/017 --- Matches: 13/17 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Xenogears |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/19/2004 6:03:22 PM | Message Detail |
| Yes, exactly... However, notice how Xenogears had a larger lead at the start. That means the most hardcore board users prefered Xenogears with close to 60% of the vote. Now the slightly less enthusiastic people, yet still board members, favored Pokemon just a bit more. If that trend continued onto the casual visitors, Pokemon GSC could win by a fair margin. Of course, that's almost like trying to solve, "1,2,_" Oh, and the casual voters would probably need to support Pokemon with 53% of the vote, rather than 52%... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Yesmar | Posted: 4/19/2004 6:08:39 PM | Message Detail |
| And so the plot thickens. . . And this is kind of off-topic. In case you haven't noticed, many of the older games in this contest have been catapulted into the Top 50 FAQ List roughly around the time of their matches. However, Final Fantasy VII hasn't cracked the top 10, even though it's done it before with no good reason to. If Adventure can become one of the Top 25 Most Visited FAQ pages, why can't FF7 be in the Top 10? --- Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing...--Ganondorf |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/19/2004 6:12:00 PM | Message Detail |
| If Adventure can become one of the Top 25 Most Visited FAQ pages, why can't FF7 be in the Top 10? People were looking up Adventure to find out what the heck it was. That was not necessary for FFVII, thus no FAQ listing jump. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 17/17, Next Winner: Pokemon |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/19/2004 7:10:35 PM | Message Detail |
| Hm,
I just thought of one other factor for tomorrow's rematch. Think about
this again: the casual voters found that their vote wouldn't be
accepted, right? Well, when the rematch is done many of them will think
it's the exact same poll, and they won't even attempt to vote! (I don This could hurt both games, but I'd imagine that it would hurt Pokemon GSC more, since it was mainly during the European voting period that the votes were being rejected. Oh, and also because the Pokemon fans probably aren't quite as mature/bright/thoughtful as the Xenogears fans. :P Any other thoughts of factors for tommorrow? --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 4/19/2004 7:21:31 PM | Message Detail |
| Hm,
I just thought of one other factor for tomorrow's rematch. Think about
this again: the casual voters found that their vote wouldn't be
accepted, right? Well, when the rematch is done many of them will think
it's the exact same poll, and they won't even attempt to vote! Good point...I never thought of that. Well if I was Ceej, I'd place a giant text message reading "REVOTE" somewhere in the match pic, this way it could potentially prevent this from happening. Becaue I doubt most people would really bother to read the front page headlines. |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 4/19/2004 7:26:07 PM | Message Detail |
| Oh, and also because the Pokemon fans probably aren't quite as mature/bright/thoughtful as the Xenogears fans. :P The stereotypes, they burn! I've skipped two years of school but apparently I'm not mature, bright, OR thoughtful because I don't like watching a pixelated guy in a chair tell me a story. --- Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04 Current Sp2K4 Score: 17/17, Next Winner: Pokemon |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 7:47:34 PM | Message Detail |
| <sarcasm>
Boy, the fifth and sixth sentances must have been too far into the rant
for you bother reading them, right? I mean, hell, why read more than
the first line of text when it basically tells you what the whole post
is going to be about. Reading? Nah, not worth the time. Hell, you
couldn't be bothered to read the text in a game that is supposed to be
focused on storyline, why in the hell would you read a whole post
before commenting on it? </sarcasm> Oh, and guess what, we've already pretty much discounted the effect of FAQ pages because they are far from indicative of a games popularity. Pre-Advance Gameboys have little to mention in the way of RPGs, especially big name RPGs. So umm... DUH! of course Pokemon has the most active GB board. I can assure you, while a handful of poeple hate Xenogears it's not enough to constitute a regular hate-base and is but a miniscule fraction of the hate-base that Pokemon brings. <sarcasm>Perhaps you're incapable of making the connection. Let me draw it out for you ('tis a shame I can't post pictures to make it easier for you to understand). </sarcasm> Hating something that is generally loved is part of human nature. The general GameFAQs populace loves FF7 so a given group hates it. The general populace of this entire ****ing country at one point loved Pokemon, so in turn a very substantial group of people hate it. Those people are far more likely to visit GameFAQs. BRODIE - "Goddamit, man-- (taps his wrist) Here's the pulse, alright. And here's your finger-- (shoves his hand down the back of his pants) --far from the pulse, jammed straight up your ass. (extracts hand and extends it to Jay) Say--would you like a chocolate covered pretzel?" (Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back) Look back at the first time you quoted me. Can you read that? Do you understand what it says? Do you see the word hardcore? Do you? I believe that I already made it clear that a good portion of the rant was based on the tendancies of hardcore voters and where people who aren't hardcore fans of either game are headed. The hardcore Pokemon fanbase is larger here than the Xenogears fanbase BUT those who are relatively unconcerned either way have leaned towards Xenogears. That's our actual "casual" factor in our given sample pool. The hardcore Pokemon fanbase is larger than Xenogears, the unconcerned voters lean towards Xenogears. I doubt that I'm the only one to grasp that given concept. Given a lack of any previous point by point rebuttal by anyone, especially the person my comment were directed to (which wasn't you), I feel very strongly that most people got the point, but that you missed it. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 7:48:37 PM | Message Detail |
| "Why would everyone who had ever liked Xenogears be hanging around at the message board of a 5+-year-old game" Why would everyne who only liked Pokemon R/B/Y (a game that really is 5 years old) be hanging around at a message board? Because they like the game. Simple concept? I thought so. "Hell, I love Final Fantasy X and would vote for it against almost anything but you're not going to see me hanging around on its message board." Okay, so people love Xenogears but THEY won't hang around at its board either. Same for Pokemon. What the **** does that have to do with anything at all? Do I care that you like FFX? Does it matter to me if you hang out on its board? No, it doesn't, and in fact it has nothing to do with the conversation at all. If you think it proves something, it doesn't. One person is never a valid subject to guage other people on. I hate onions, does every human being hate onions? No. Your opinion has nothing to do with the conversation and your tendancies aren't reflective of other people. Give your opinion to someone who actually asks for it. "Neither of these hardcore groups make up a significant amount of the registered users, let alone of the voting population, and using them as your sample leads to obviously flawed results." See that paragraph after my Jay and Silent Bob quote? That implies that I *ahem* imlied previously that if the gap between Xenogears and Pokemon couldn't be made up by pokemon's larger fanbase then Pokemon's chances of winning tomorrow aren't as great as Slowflake predicted. You know what else that implies? That the difference between the two games is from casual voters who are generally unaffected by either game but chooses one regardless. Let's see here. Pokemon has a larger fanbase, Xenogears is winning anyways... that leads me to believe casual voters favor Xenogears. Where did you miss that? "I agree with the poster who said that this would be an interesting experiment – it will be the closest we will ever come to finding out just how much of an impact the casual, unregistered user has on the matches. " Not even directed at me, and the only point I agree on. "HATRED OF PIKACHU =/= HATRED OF POKEMON" As a fan of the game since long before it was translated into English I must assure you, the two are not mutually exclussive. Pikachu hate is an extension of Pokemon hate at it is the game's primary mascot. Mario hate is often linked to Nintendo hate, Cloud hate is often linked to FF7 hate. People can hate the character but love the game (or the company) but that doesn't mean that the majority of haters doesn't hate both. I'll repeat that last one in simple terms, hate for one thing and hate for another, yet related, thing is not mutually exclussive. They more often than not go hand in hand. You may love Pokemon but hate Pikachu, and you aren't the only one, but just like when I was telling you how worthless your opinion of FFX and its board is to this conversation so say I about your feelings towards Pikachu and Pokemon. Perhaps, as a fan, you can't understand that some people who hate Pikachu hate him as an example of a game they hate. Perhaps you've never considered the possibility that Some people hate the Pokemon games but think Pikachu is adorable. Perhaps, as I stated, your opinion and the opionion of any other individual has absolutely nothing to do with the tendancies of a larger group. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 7:48:57 PM | Message Detail |
| Maybe
it's just me, but I think if you're going to critique my rants you
should either produce concepts to explain the same situation while
simultaneously disproving my theory or you should bring evidence to the
contrary. If you can't do either you may as well nitpick about my
spelling, punctuation, and grammer... because outside of those things
you bring no sound reasoning as to why I could be wrong. And no, the
"casual" users not having voted isn't sound reasoning. And again, no,
having the busiest FAQs on an RPG leaning site for an RPG starved
handheld system isn't sound evidence. And finally, no, disassociating
Pikachu from Pokemon is not sound anything. Most "casual" gamers
cannot, will not, or simply do not disassociate the two. |
| From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 4/19/2004 8:02:47 PM | Message Detail |
| hmmmm,
I'm not really sure if this has been brought up at all, but I've seen
it recurring a few times throughout these topics and the board in
general, and that's antivotes, and also hate bases. I'm fairly certain
there was some more discussion of it during the offseason, and I
thought the general consensus, or at least what I thought anyway, was
that antivotes really have no power at all in the contests. I'm not positive, but one of the main points to this argument was this. For an anti-vote to actually register against an opponent, it would have to subtract a vote from someone who was going to vote for the game anyway, but then changes his/her mind. For example, Link won the contest the first year, and then someone would say he didn't win last year because of antivotes. But is someone who would vote for Link really likely to switch their vote to another character? If they liked Link in the first place, that probably won't change that much from year to year. So, with Pokemon, several people are bringing up that it will get heavily anti-voted. But for this to have an effect people who were going to vote Pokemon would have to switch to vote for Xenogears. But this probably isn't too likely, because why would you not vote for the game you liked? and if you don't like the game, you're not going to vote for it anyway, so you're not really antivoting, because your not taking away anything you were going to give in the first place. or that's what I thought/think anyway.... --- Was nokia trying to prove that something can be made worse than x-box? ~Darkbaconslayer on N-Gage |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 8:04:36 PM | Message Detail |
| Haste2: "However, notice how Xenogears had a larger lead at the start. That means the most hardcore board users prefered Xenogears with close to 60% of the vote. Now the slightly less enthusiastic people, yet still board members, favored Pokemon just a bit more. If that trend continued onto the casual visitors, Pokemon GSC could win by a fair margin. Of course, that's almost like trying to solve, "1,2,_" Oh, and the casual voters would probably need to support Pokemon with 53% of the vote, rather than 52%..." The hardcore of the hardcore mean less than the hardcore, my friend. That's why the gap was narrowed. However the poll extended until 10:30 am PST. That's half past noon on the East coast. Wouldn't that be our morning vote and (if not for school interferance) also a large portion of our "kiddie" vote? Pokemon wasn't winning in that time, and the votes stabalized out to a point where IF it were under normal voting patterns Pokemon would have needed something around 60 votes per update to come back. Sounds familiar... oh yes, DK vs. DH. A very close match, but even DH never made it back from the initial loss. In fact, should that poll have been acurate to what the real poll will be like then Xenogears would have actually had about a 4,000 vote lead over Pokemon by 10:30 am. We all know no one has ever comeback from being that far behind. The best comeback within reason (now updated due to DH) would still have to come before the 3,000 mark. I do agree that it wouldn't take much more than 52-53% of the unregestered voters being in favore of Pokemon to change things... but that is an 8% reversal. With a random 20% sampling that seems unlikely, but posible. And despite what anyone says it is in fact random. To insist that Pokemon players are less like to register than other given fan is horse**** just like assuming Pokemon fans are dumb enough to think they won't be able to vote the next time the match comes up. Whoever implied that should make their appologies promptly. --- If all Christians acted like Christ, the whole world would be Christian. - Gandhi |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 4/19/2004 8:08:25 PM | Message Detail |
| FF05,
Hatebases are not "antivoters" under that deffinition. The hatebase
would never vote for Pokemon no matter what it's up against. Those
aren't anti-votes, they are anti-fans. Those votes do exist, and for
something on the scale of Pokemon they are significant. I imagine it
was Slow who discounted the anti-vote theory that you mentioned
previously yet if you ask him I doubt he can discount the potential
power of the Pokemon hatebase. --- If all Christians acted like Christ, the whole world would be Christian. - Gandhi |
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