Spring 2004 Contest
Stats & Discussion - Spring 2004 Contest
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From: smitelf | Posted: 4/16/2004 9:26:09 AM | Message Detail
I love your commentary, steve...I also think it a travesty for MK to be up against FFVI in the first round. It's probably my third favorite in this division, right behind FFVI and SMW. I might even give it a pity vote, despite liking FFVI slightly more.

Everyone wish me luck...it is time to depart for my Ordinary Differential Equations final exam. See you all afterward...if I survive.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 14/14, Next Winner: Doom
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/16/2004 9:35:16 AM | Message Detail
Well, it's that time again. I have no clue how MK and FF6 sold. Any clues?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 011/014 --- Matches: 11/14 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Earthbound
From: Mild Guy | Posted: 4/16/2004 9:54:34 AM | Message Detail
As popular as FF6 is, it is a pretty safe bet that MK sold more copies, and the arcade have mad bling too. That's what I remember anyways, but I wouldn't know where to get the sales figures.
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Proud Supporter of Every Sega Game in the Contest (except Phantasy Star 1) Current Score 13/14.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/16/2004 9:56:28 AM | Message Detail
I don't need exact figures. Good point about the arcades though.

Guess I've got enough opinions... I think I can go on with the preview.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 011/014 --- Matches: 11/14 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Earthbound
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/16/2004 10:36:34 AM | Message Detail
*** COMPARISONS GAME - Match #16 - (2) FINAL FANTASY 6 vs. (15) MORTAL KOMBAT ***

Sales

Once again, I had to rely on my fellow board members for this. And while I had a hunch MK sold better, I don't have enough knowledge of that time to draw correct conclusions.

But in the end, about everyone said that MK outsold FF6 easily. RPGs were still a very niche genre back then (it would take a certain game called FF7 to get it out of that status), while MK was all the rage on consoles and arcades alike. All in all, worldwide MK was more widely played. On GameFAQs? Maybe, maybe not.

- Advantage MK.

Franchises

And that's where reality hits like a baseball bat with electrified barbed wire. Final Fantasy is just too popular to be taken out by any franchise that isn't one of the top on this site. And is Mortal Kombat anywhere near that? ...Nah.

- Advantage FF6.

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs: FF6
Number of reviews: MK
Average review score: FF6
Board activity: FF6

The only reason MK wins in the second category is because I combined Arcade, SNES and Genesis. And even there, it's close, 55-49 MK. For the rest, FF6 absolutely SPANKS MK. The good reviews for MK are few and far between, practically no FAQs, two tiny boards and even a barren one (SNES).

- Advantage FF6.

Board Odds Project

PICKS (out of 102)
Final Fantasy 6 - 101
Mortal Kombat - 1

POINT VALUE
8. Final Fantasy 6 - 619
54. Mortal Kombat - 1

Um... that's a huge thrashing, yes it is. But beyond that, despite the majority having it come to a screeching halt in round 3, it's still tied for 8th with a favorite to win its half-division, Wind Waker. Even if in both cases we're talking very small majorities, it's still favored by a lot of people to pull the upset in round 3. I don't like its chances and very much prefer SSBM in that case, but this is not about me. People picked FF6 to go far, and that's it.

- Advantage FF6.

Summer Contests / Polls of the Day

Now here's the interesting part. I've said it often by now, but for those of you who noticed it, have you noticed Scorpion did better against Pac-Man than Kefka?

On the other hand, FF6 is the perennial second in "favorite FF" polls. A very distant second compared to SMW, LttP or Metroid Prime, but a second nonetheless, even above FF10. And I don't see many people doubting FF10's power, except for all 7 Shenmue fanboys on this site.

Nonetheless, I get the feeling the fanbases for FF1-6 and 7-11 are quite different, and of course the advantage goes to the latter. Of course, it doesn't mean FF7-11 fans won't lend FF6 a hand... but then where were they for Kefka? Probably because they don't know Kefka is made by Square and has Final Fantasy tacked onto the title.

I am reluctant to give this category to anyone... but just because FF6 is still the second favorite FF, and has always been despite being 10 years old (except for poll #3 ;) ), we have a winner.

- Advantage FF6.

Intangibles

Umm... how about, fighters are unpopular here and RPGs rule? Ackbar used a lot of cruisers, tons of Whinekens were tossed because of a certain match that shall remain nameless...

Except, there's a huge problem. The SC/PotD part implies that FF6's score could fall under a huge range. It could barely double MK, or it could quadruple it (in which case it suddenly becomes the huge favorite to win the tournament).

FF1 probably got help from the new-school fans, but that's only because Pitfall wasn't getting anywhere on name recognition. Mortal Kombat is no Pitfall, but then again many of those who played FF6 loved it to death.

What to do, what to do? Wait, I know what to do.

- TIE.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 011/014 --- Matches: 11/14 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Earthbound
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/16/2004 10:38:28 AM | Message Detail
Conclusion: I'm probably the only one here who sees MK getting a respectable chunk of the vote. Of course, FF6 is unlikely to "GET OVER HERE", but since the 1-on-1 ambience is real similar to that of a Summer Contest battle (read: Pac-Man vs. Kefka), we might see something that gets closer to it than the "favorite FF" polls indicate. Or I could be way off and FF6 will ass-rape MK. Either way, even though the outcome is obvious, this match will be more interesting than the other blowouts in that division.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 011/014 --- Matches: 11/14 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Earthbound
From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/16/2004 11:18:24 AM | Message Detail
And I don't see many people doubting FF10's power, except for all 7 Shenmue fanboys on this site.

Hahah I counted 5...I better recount the Shenmue fanboys! God that game will be destroyed as bad as Gunstar for sure.

Slowflake: also, u aint the only one thinking MK will get a lot of votes. I feel it will also! 30000 or more I say! You know how strongly I believe in it!

smite: Thanks! Appreciate your compliments!

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SC2K4: 13/15! Read my Satirical Contest Commentary!
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: Yesmar | Posted: 4/16/2004 11:56:09 AM | Message Detail
Yesmar's Contest Comments: Day 15: 4/16/04

· PC gamers should be happy. This will be their shining moment in the tournament. Even if Starcraft manages to win its first-match, I highly doubt it will manage to get the percentage that Doom is getting.

· Yay!! My bracket is saved again. It's funny that the only matches I've gotten wrong so far have been 8 Vs. 9 Seed matches, and if Xenogears manages to win on Monday, that trend will continue.

· I guess this pretty much establishes Earthbound as a cult game, and probably the most popular of all the cult games on the contest, or maybe even the most popular. . . ON THE WHOLE INTERNET!!!!! MWAHAHA!!!

· In other news, if Final Fantasy VI can't manage to get 70% tomorrow (which I think it will), it's days are numbered, IMO.
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Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing...--Ganondorf
From: redline15 | Posted: 4/16/2004 12:43:34 PM | Message Detail
...heh.
so much for my so-called analysis...

of course...nobody could be sure about doom's support...
and it's good to see it getting to round 2...
...but it is still disturbing.

aside from that...
thanks to slowflake for the explanations...
...and my apologies for wasting so many posts yesterday.
i will try to limit this in the future...
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signature (n.): a random bit of gibberish that no one ever reads.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/16/2004 1:14:48 PM | Message Detail
Don't worry, redline. It's not like posts here aren't expendable. I mean, Solar can just make a new topic anytime. I guess he must be flattered, at least a little, to have launched the biggest multi-part topic ever on this board. I think that aside from SSBM high scores topics, there are very few that can compare to this. I mean, this is, what, the 12th topic of the series?

And Steve, I know what you mean, but I think that comes more from your confidence in MK, whereas I think FF6 really is going nowhere. From what I've seen on this board, only Ncr shares that opinion. Sad, really, since it's my second favorite ever, but that's okay.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 011/014 --- Matches: 11/14 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Earthbound
From: Phediuk | Posted: 4/16/2004 2:22:28 PM | Message Detail
Match #14 Review:

Ho hum. Another day, another blowout.

Match #16 Preview:

I don't think MK will be totally humiliated in this match...but it'll still get squashed by FFVI.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/16/2004 2:26:35 PM | Message Detail
Slowflake: MK or FF3 is your 2nd favorite?

Either one is a good choice, I just want to be sure which u meant is your 2nd fav!
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SC2K4: 12/14! Read my Satirical Contest Commentary!
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: smitelf | Posted: 4/16/2004 2:36:31 PM | Message Detail
Don't worry, redline. It's not like posts here aren't expendable. I mean, Solar can just make a new topic anytime.

Speaking of solar, I haven't seen him posting around here in a while...

Oh, and I love the Whinekins pic. Did you make it, Slow? Anyway, it's cool, and I'll probably be using the word Whinekins around here from now on. Consider it a compliment.

Anyway, I'm back. Okay, on the the analysis:

Match Review: Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star IV

Another dull match with the combination of rape and Whinekins for the loser that has become the trademark of Division 16. Super Metroid didn't impress me; I still think it will fall to LttP, as expected.

Match Preview: Final Fantasy VI vs. Mortal Kombat

Final Fantasy VI: That Final Fantasy that came before VII. It's made by Square and has "Final Fantasy" in the title, and that's all it will need in its first two matches.

Mortal Kombat: My favorite fighting game. However, it is a fighting game, and SFII lost to a much weaker opponent.

Final Fantasy VI will trounce the competition. Square: 2, Fighting Genre: 0. This match should be good for judging where Final Fantasy VI stands, but not much else. I'm expecting a 75-80% win.

My prediction: FFVI 77.5%, Mortal Kombat 22.5%
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 14/14, Next Winner: Doom
From: Garsha | Posted: 4/16/2004 2:38:57 PM | Message Detail
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/seeding.html

Someone made a mistake. Doom is the 10-seed.
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Points: 14/14/192
Vote in my SpC2K4 Boot & Immune tourney:
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=13626538
From: cyko | Posted: 4/16/2004 3:23:14 PM | Message Detail
earlier, i said that Doom winning wouldn't make any sense. upon closer inspection, especially considering today's match, it appears that Super Mario RPG vs. Street Fighter 2 is really the match that doesn't make any sense. out of all these similar matches (PS vs Contra, Pong vs RCR, SMRPG vs SF2, EB vs Doom) SMRPG was the only one to pull out the upset over the much more recognizable and widely played game. go figure. i guess having both "Mario" and "RPG" in the title really can draw more votes.

i swear to you, if i ever make a video game, i'm just gonna name it either "Ultimate Link RPG" or "The Erotic RPG Adventures of Cloud". i don't care what the game is about; i've decided to go with one of those two titles. those are all words and things that will apparently draw people to your game. well, at least on GameFAQS.


cyko's Point of View

Match 16

(2) Final Fantasy 3/6 vs. (15) Mortal Kombat


okay, it's not a matter of who will get fatalitied here. it's just a matter of how bad of a fatality it will be. will it be like Sonya's wimpy little Kiss of Death, where Mortal Kombat simply incinerates into a pile of dust? or will it be more like Sub-Zero's Head-Ripping-Off-Taunt, where FF3 rips off MK's head and spine and holds it up in a victory pose for all MK fanboys to see, all while MK's lifeless body falls to the floor? i'm guessing it will lean towards the latter. so, maybe Kefka didn't do so well last year, but i've already explained why he doesn't represent his game well. (i'm telling you, throw Shadow in there and he could rival Magus, or at least Shadow the Hedgehog. having the same name has to count for something. =P)

i feel that Final Fantasy will be able to gather most of the series support and give Mortal Kombat quite the beatdown. i know MK is no pushover, but if SMRPG can cruise past SF2, then the far more played SNES RPG should be able to handle MK. i expect it to break 75%. if FF3 does get any lower than 70%, though, i think it has very little chance against LTTP. but, if it breaks 80%.......... than, oh man, Zelda had better look out!!

Prediction: Final Fantasy 3/6 with 74-76%

my bracket: Final Fantasy 3/6

personal favorite: Final Fantasy 3/6
-i would go into detail, but i would be here for a long, long time. FF3 is the finest video game experience i have honestly ever enjoyed. this game was truly cinematic before we even had cinemas. it is still the RPG that i use to measure the quality of other RPGs. my personal best game ever.

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Current Score: 14/14 (through Super Metroid vs. PS4) Tied for 1st place with ????? other users.
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/16/2004 3:41:35 PM | Message Detail
Dang you, Slowflake...I have Pokemon GSC in my bracket. >:O

Anybody remember the number of perfects by the end of the East Division Round 1 for the Summer 2003 contest? (How about for the S2K2 Contest, too?) I'm just wondering about how rapid the number of perfects go down as each tough match goes by, and I want to make sure there doesn't seem to be too many perfect brackets for how far we are. :P

Oh, this is a little late, but you can't discount anti-votes:

Lara Croft got 59.38% against Ryo Hazuki, while Dante got 77.65% against the same guy. If Ryo Hazuki got no anti-votes, then Dante should beat Lara Croft with 72.5%. In fact, even with the Summer 2003 Contest values, he'd should beat Lara with about 60% of the vote (and I think a little less than that for 2002). It would take a heck of a lot of stretching to say that's within typical error, and even if you add in a decrease for Ryo Hazuki (and I'd find that hard to believe, since Shenmue is, um, a "Cult classic")

Also, don't forget that Lara Croft defeated Chop Chop Master Onion with only 69.63% of the vote...haha. He's obscure, AND he's from a rap-game...

I hate analyzing matches in an organized way...it doesn't feel right for me. Anyway, I think Mortal Kombat will do decent against Final Fantasy VI, as I do believe that it's almost as popular as SFII. 25-30% for MK seems about right.

Notice how there's been four 80+% blowouts in a row. I don't think this have ever happened before...has there even been three in a row? In fact, I expect there to be sixteen 75+% blowouts by the end. That's double of what we'd expect in the past. I kinda wish CJayC nominated the games himself now. Also, because there are more really obvious matches, I could see quite a few more perfects by the end of the round than initially expected.

Thank you, Ulti.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/16/2004 3:44:59 PM | Message Detail
What am I being thanked for?

I think that aside from SSBM high scores topics, there are very few that can compare to this

There are loads of running lounge topics on social boards that have had 40 or more topics hit 500+ posts.
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MIASU! I think im going to mark this topic for being too intelligent for GameFAQs. -Tulidian
From: Cthulhu | Posted: 4/16/2004 5:07:58 PM | Message Detail
It was the first game to use digitized filming of character actors which were then transferred to the game.

What about Pit Fighter?
From: solid snake dark | Posted: 4/16/2004 5:26:43 PM | Message Detail
Stupid Doom had to win...that's two losses now! Well I predict that FF3/6 will rape MK and it will then proceed to rape Doom. Thank you for listening.
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dark solid snake = PURGATORY'D
"You Bought an N-Gage, Didn't You?" -CJayC
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/16/2004 5:28:49 PM | Message Detail
MK or FF3 is your 2nd favorite?

FF6. Though I do have some fond memories of MK, too. It's a shame that they got to face each other.

I love the Whinekins pic. Did you make it, Slow?

No, that was Ambrose777. I didn't slap his name below the topic for nothing, you know ;)

And it's Whineken. You better start spelling it correctly, else no one will know what you're talking about ;)

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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 011/014 --- Matches: 11/14 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Earthbound
From: smitelf | Posted: 4/16/2004 5:54:29 PM | Message Detail
And it's Whineken. You better start spelling it correctly, else no one will know what you're talking about ;)

Bah, you would think I would know that...being in college and all...
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 14/14, Next Winner: Doom
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 4/16/2004 5:59:09 PM | Message Detail
Anybody remember the number of perfects by the end of the East Division Round 1 for the Summer 2003 contest? (How about for the S2K2 Contest, too?) I'm just wondering about how rapid the number of perfects go down as each tough match goes by, and I want to make sure there doesn't seem to be too many perfect brackets for how far we are. :P

Here you go, current scores after Round 16:
Current Scores:
16 233(0.57%/1 in 176.2)
15 1249(3.04%/1 in 32.87)
14 3414(8.31%/1 in 12.03)
13 6180(15.05%/1 in 6.644)
12 8514(20.74%/1 in 4.823)
11 8733(21.27%/1 in 4.702)
10 6496(15.82%/1 in 6.321)
9 3713(9.04%/1 in 11.06)
8 1657(4.04%/1 in 24.78)
7 607(1.48%/1 in 67.64)
6 171(0.42%/1 in 240.1)
5 49(0.12%/1 in 837.9)
4 16(0.04%/1 in 2566)
3 11(0.03%/1 in 3733)
2 10(0.02%/1 in 4106)
1 3(0.007%/1 in 13686)
0 3(0.007%/1 in 13686)

Percentile
16 99.43%
15 96.39%
14 88.08%
13 73.02%
12 52.29%
11 31.02%
10 15.20%
9 6.15%
8 2.12%
7 0.64%
6 0.22%
5 0.10%
4 0.07%
3 0.04%
2 0.01%
1 0.007%
0 0%

Average score: 11.32
Median Score: 11
---
''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 4/16/2004 6:02:30 PM | Message Detail
Forgot to mention that those stats are for the Summer 2003 Contest. I don't have the data from the Summer 2002 Contest.
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''Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts...''
''All dreams are but another reality. Never forget...''
From: smitelf | Posted: 4/16/2004 6:04:43 PM | Message Detail
Y'know, I've been thinking (yes, I know that's a bad sign...silence, you) that although the last few matches were dull because they were blowouts, the next two matches -- despite being just as obvious -- will be more interesting because they can be used to predict later, more crucial matches.

Tomorrow we've got FFVI's first match which will show how well it compares to LttP. LttP did well, though not staggeringly so, just as it ought to do against a much weaker title. FFVI, despite being the 2-seed, has a much tougher opponent, one perhaps only slightly below the league of SFII. If it gets 85% then those with LttP in their bracket should be worried. I expect it to get between 75-80%; if it gets lower, there's no way it can beat LttP.

Then we've got FFVII's first match, in which we will see what power this game really has. Suikoden II is not a "weak" game by any stretch of the imagination (unlike Adventure or Gunstar Heroes) and was unfortunate in its seeding. If FFVII can pull a 90% victory on Suikoden II then we might as well declare it the winner of the contest right now. I'm expecting around 80-85% (this is Final Fantasy VII, after all) but if it gets into nineties territory then I don't see what other powerhouse can stop it -- unless, of course, OoT manages to pull 90%+ on Fallout 2.
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 14/14, Next Winner: Doom
From: smitelf | Posted: 4/16/2004 6:10:42 PM | Message Detail
Hey TRE, thanks for the info. I get the impression that we'll have more perfects than that at the end of this division...there seem to be more on the boards than last year, anyway. Goodness knows I was nowhere close to perfect at this point last year...
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Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 14/14, Next Winner: Doom
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/16/2004 6:15:25 PM | Message Detail
Notice how there's been four 80+% blowouts in a row. I don't think this have ever happened before...has there even been three in a row?

Let's see...

SUMMER 2002 CONTEST

15. Knuckles the Echidna vs. Akira Yuki
24. Link vs. Little Mac
25. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Pitfall Harry
28. Ryu vs. CATS
29. Megaman vs. Ms. Pac-Man
31. Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan
47. Megaman vs. Serious Sam
48. Sephiroth vs. Crash Bandicoot
49. Mario Mario vs. Donkey Kong


SUMMER 2003 CONTEST

1. Link vs. AiAi
9. Cloud Strife vs. CATS
17. Mario Mario vs. Captain Olimar
20. Crono vs. Tom Nook
24. Sephiroth vs. Raziel
25. Solid Snake vs. Raiden
32. Megaman vs. Mr. Resetti
33. Link vs. Fox McCloud
44. Sephiroth vs. Max Payne

SPRING 2004 CONTEST

1. Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metal Gear
4. Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall
6. Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure
11. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs. Shining Force
12. Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons
13. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs. Gunstar Heroes
14. Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star 4

17. Final Fantasy 7 vs. Suikoden 2
22. Goldeneye vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga
23. Super Mario 64 vs. NiGHTS Into Dreams
24. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. Fallout 2

30. Final Fantasy 10 vs. Shenmue
35. Donkey Kong vs. Legend of Zelda


(Projected ones in italics)

So, it happened once with a Megaman/Sephiroth/Mario string, and it could happen again with Goldeneye/SM64/OoT. I'm not too sure about Goldeneye though.

Still, it's frightening. We've had 9 in each contest, yet we could end up with 12 in the first round alone. Fortunately, outside of LoZ/DK, I don't foresee any in the second round or later. This round is just something to weed out the unnecessary fodder... the fun will truly begin with the second round, as we only have three tough matches left in this one (Pokémon/Xenogears, PD/SOTN, and Halo/Starcraft).
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SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 011/014 --- Matches: 11/14 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: Earthbound
From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 4/16/2004 7:58:00 PM | Message Detail
Alright... well, although Doom has continued to fall, %-wise, over the past 7 or so hours, Earthbound has still been unable to make any dent in Doom's sizeable lead, which has now been extended to well over 10k. And so, lady and gentlemen, I think it's time to announce that we officially have a much smaller Perfect Club here in Guru Land.

The Perfects
Ngamer
Ncr
Bananaquest
smitelf
Sephirot

A few people were asking for a text version of the ranks the other day, so I'll try to paste them in here now.

The Contest Guru Scoreboard

1st Ngamer 15
1st Ncrdrg 15
1st Bananaquest 15
1st Sephirot 15
1st smitelf 15
6th cyko 14
6th neoatomtaco 14
6th IMAP 14
6th Haste2 14
6th UltimaterializerX 14
6th Starion 14
6th Shake 14
6th StopPokingMe 14
6th Heroic Mario 14
6th King Morgoth 14
6th nh82 14
17th solarshadow 13
17th Ringworm 13
17th Z1mZum 13
17th red sox 777 13
17th Team Rocket Elite 13
17th FastFalcon 13
17th Xuxon 13
17th Sir Chris 13
17th swirldude 13
17th Yesmar 13
17th charmander 13
28th creativename 12
28th ChichiriMuyo 12
28th torey luvullo 12
28th DomaDragoon 12

Hey, that worked out pretty well. So, as you can see, from 31 originally we've fallen to a mere 5 on top. Let's take a look ahead to Pokemon/Xenogears, which is not only the next big match; it's actually the most important of the entire first round. Only 53.33% of us went with the favorite, Xenogears. This is significant in that, not only is the margin razor thin, it's also the only time all round that we were less confident than the board majority, who had X pegged at a rate of 59.80%. In my mind, that signals trouble for the PSX classic... and I'm loving it. But ok, here's how the perfects will be broken up after that one:

If Pokemon wins: Ngamer, smitelf

If Xenogears wins: Sephirot, Bananaquest, and Ncr

And now, just for fun, I think I'll break things down the way CJay used to do, back in the old days when there was such a thing as a "stat page." Wow, it seems like almost a year since we've seen one of those, eh?

Guru Prediction Stats after 16 Matches
(assuming a win for FF3)

16 - 5, 16.13%
15 - 11, 35.48%
14 - 11, 35.48%
13 - 4, 12.90%
12 - 0, 0.00%

Boy, we're smart! *pats us on the back*

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the-elite.net
Guru Rankings: geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/ContestGurus.xls
The Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs
From: amikokyra | Posted: 4/16/2004 8:41:04 PM | Message Detail
bump
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How's life treating you Norm?---Coach
Like it caught me in bed with its wife.---Norm
From: stormfusion | Posted: 4/16/2004 8:47:35 PM | Message Detail
I'm perfect... how do you join this "guru-club" (not going through 48 pages to find out I had to signup a while ago or something...
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The Emus are Everywhere
From: Tai | Posted: 4/16/2004 8:49:14 PM | Message Detail
I am must looking forward to Pokemon vs Xenogears. People might be at the endge of their seat at this one. :-)
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Welcome to Sp2CK4, where your opinion does not matter. -Xenobi.
From: solarshadow | Posted: 4/16/2004 9:19:11 PM | Message Detail
Well, I must say this is the first match where the result truly surprised me. While I did think Doom would win (despite my bracket saying otherwise), I didn't expect it to win by nearly so much. I'm impressed. I thought SFII might beat SMRPG, but I wasn't surprised when it didn't. But either Doom is proving that the right PC game can do okay on GameFAQs, or Earthbound is proving that it really is a niche title. I suspect the latter. :)

Solar just might ban me from this topic if Doom wins. :(

Ha, not likely! Get a match like FFVII vs. Suikoden II wrong, then we'll talk...

I mean, Solar can just make a new topic anytime.

Oh sure, I'll just pull a new one out of my... Hey wait, you're right, that is pretty easy. Hmm.

I guess he must be flattered, at least a little, to have launched the biggest multi-part topic ever on this board.

Absolutely. It really is amazing how much it's grown since its humble beginnings. The best part is that all of my favorite posters hang out here, so I really don't need to spend much time searching the rest of the board. :)

Speaking of solar, I haven't seen him posting around here in a while...

You haven't been spending enough time in the Oracle topic. He hasn't had time for anything else. :(

Someone made a mistake. Doom is the 10-seed.

What?? Nonsense, I don't make mistakes. Check again. ;)

Oh, I see now ^_^ He`s making fun of the fact that I complain in every new topic he makes due to him never including me in the elite list of people he thanks. But now that I`ve made his list in the manner of reverse psychology, I`ll shut up. Thanks, solar!

Heh, I knew you'd appreciate that. =)

And it's Whineken. You better start spelling it correctly, else no one will know what you're talking about.

Heh, I saw the original topic where you requested Whineken pics. I even made you one, although I lost the topic so I didn't know where to post it. Here will do:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/whineken.jpg
Where are the others? Must see. :)
From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/16/2004 11:43:29 PM | Message Detail
Well it looks like Doom will finish at 57%...I predicted 58%...I have not been that close to exact in a while on such a hot matchup.

SO yep I am happy...Go MK!
---
SC2K4: 13/15! Read my Satirical Contest Commentary!
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: creativename | Posted: 4/17/2004 12:20:29 AM | Message Detail
Wow...Final Fantasy VI is getting close to 79% against MK. I'm surprised. Until I saw the very high % predictions for Final Fantasy VI in the Oracle challenge and the 60K-80K predictions in the Prophet challenge, I didn't think Final Fantasy VI could win by that much. MK is a lot weaker than I thought it would be before the contest started.

This makes me happy =0) Final Fantasy VI deserves to PWN the hell out of MK.

Final Fantasy VI vs. A Link to the Past should be a good match. I still expect A Link to the Past to win, but Final Fantasy VI should get at least 44%, I'm thinking.

Oh, and I've seen people (I think SlowFlake and Heroic Mario) say that if Final Fantasy VI got 80% here it just won the contest. I very much disagree. It might very well end up with 80% (though I think it's % may drop during the day), but it still isn't going to challenge Final Fantasy VII or Ocarina of Time.

But the 16 bit division is looking a lot more interesting now.
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!
SC2K4.com
From: Ringworm | Posted: 4/17/2004 12:52:53 AM | Message Detail
Quarter time Review!

After today's match, we will be quarter of the way through the tournament (or close enough). So far, the tournament has been pretty boring, with few close matches. Anyway, here's my analysis of what's happened so far.

Best match - Donkey Kong v Duck Hunt. Despite the fact I got this wrong, this has been the one entertaining match so far, and the only one not over in the first few hours. I thought it was at the time, but that's a different story.

Biggest upset - Contra defeating Phantasy Star. Not unexpected, but I thought it would be closer.

Hardest match to predict - Doom v Earthbound. I'm guessing this would of ruined quite a few brackets, hard to know without the stats though.

Most boring match - CT v SoM/SM v PS4 (tie). Both came at the end of four easy matches to predict, none of them were even close. (Some may argue with Pong v RCR, but I thought it was obvious). I was really looking forward to the next matches after each of these, hoping for something close, but both were anti-climactc.

Games that shouldn't of been in the tournament - Adventure, Gunstar Heroes. These two did miserably, even against strong games. Games that came close to this include Pitfall and Galaga. A lot of the others could of done better against easier opponents.

Second round matches:

SMB3 v Metroid - Mario v Samus, interesting match up with Metroid doing better than I expected. I'm guessing SMB3 will win easily though.

Contra v Final Fantasy - No contest, FF makes it through based on the name alone.

Donkey Kong v Zelda - Zelda won't win by as much as round 1, but it'll still be big

Pong v Tetris - Two games which will struggle to get a character in the character contest, so this is their only chance at glory. Tetris should be strong enough to get a rather easy win.

CT v SMRPG - Mario v Crono III? Sort of. Crono should win this one though, that's the difference. The two games surprised me in Rd 1 though, I expected CT to do a bit better, SMRPG to do a bit worse.

Sonic 2 v SMW - First close Rd 2 match. I'd like to see Sonic win to be honest. Never really got into SMW.

LttP v Super Metroid - Another tough match, I'd say LttP is the more popular of the two, despite the seedings. I'm guessing it'll be quite close though, and may be a preview of WW v MP.

Doom v FF6 - No contest, FF6 easily. I hope anyway. Don't want to lose any more points from my Earthbound tip.

The second round doesn't really heat up until the latter two divisions though. Here's hoping it'll be a bit more interesting than Rd 1 so far!
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Betting: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=13664903
14/16 Next: FF7
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/17/2004 5:45:06 AM | Message Detail
So now will you people start believing me about FF6 having no chance in hell against LTTP?
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MIASU! I think im going to mark this topic for being too intelligent for GameFAQs. -Tulidian
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 4/17/2004 5:48:37 AM | Message Detail
Before I forget, a note for redline. There is no such thing as wasting posts in this topic. You`ll find that this topic is a hiding spot for some of the smartest people on this board, and for some reason, we get next to zero trolls and dumbasses. I act like one sometimes, but I`m actually far from being that way. If you have something to post, a question to ask, or an analysis to give, give it. We aren`t exactly protective of the 500 post limit in this thing, and could honestly care less. Just don`t say things like "WHOAMG WHY THE **** IS EARTHBOUND LUESING OH NOES!!11!oneone", and you`ll be just fine around here ^_^
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MIASU! I think im going to mark this topic for being too intelligent for GameFAQs. -Tulidian
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 4/17/2004 6:48:01 AM | Message Detail
I never really gave much thought to LttP/FFVI before the contest began; Kefka's extremely weak performance (against both Crono and Pac-Man) made me conclude that LttP would win easily. After this match, I can see that this match will be closer than I thought, as Link only got 76% against Scorpion in SC2002, while Final Fantasy VI will probably continue losing percentage throughout the day, ending with ~73% or so. Of course, Link is probably stronger than A Link to the Past, so this match could actually be quite tight.

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Spring Contest 2004 (Best. Game. Ever.): My Score: 13/15 Today's Pick: Final Fantasy VI
From: steve illumina | Posted: 4/17/2004 6:57:38 AM | Message Detail
Well here we go kiddies :) Time for...

Steve Illumina Speaks

Thats right, the infamous yet humorous commentary is back, to go with all the rest of us here in this, the greatest of threads, the most worthy of postings on this fanboy dominated board.

And so it continues, with the ho-hum contractual #1 seed 1st round blowout win in the "Golden Age" Division

Match XVII

(1)FFVII vs (16)Suikoden II

Steve's Prediction: FF7 by 87.2%
Steve's Bracket: FF7
Newbie's Pick: Do I really gotta tell ya?
Upset Chances: Again, do I really gotta tell ya???

Comments: Here we got Square's flagship masterpiece, FFVII, against the underappreciated gem, Suikoden II.

Poor poor Suikoden II...it really deserves better treatment than this. Nights into Dreams should be the sucker taking the #16 seed beating here, not Suikoden II. This game (and series) exudes class and deserves the respect of every gamer everywhere.

You know a game is worthy when it fetches $100 bucks or more on Ebay and is rare as hell to find in your corner EB Games, Gamestop, Flea Market, Swap Meet, or Yard Sale. Suikoden II is that game. Clueless Cloudites won't ever have heard of it or if they have, wont give it the time of day...a real pity.

These Cloudites instead will support their idol...their banner, their love. Every last Square fanboy will band together for this, their crown jewel, their cream of the crop, their piece of plum pudding in a gaming pie...FFVII.

Not so secret meetings have been held, gathering the loose confederation of fanboy and fangirl loyalist organizations..everyone from the 'Square Squadron' to 'Tifa's Babes'. From 'Aeris' Army' to 'Barret's Brigade' to the 'International Brotherhood of Squaresoft'. Every last fanboy shall rally around the cause. Every fangirl, every cosplayer, every blind devoted kiddie who tattooed Jenova to their arm will stand tall behind this, their reason for living...

Probable Results: FF7 by 87% or more...Suikoden just cant compete with a fanboy backed juggernaut.

Steve's Moments: FF7: I cried, I'll admit it...it was beautiful. That short scene was better than the entire FF Movie! Bring on Advent Children! Suikoden II: Ah..cooking! This one's for you, Harv!
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SC2K4: 14/16! Read my Satirical Contest Commentary!
Steve Illumina: Standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years
From: Haste2 | Posted: 4/17/2004 7:04:38 AM | Message Detail
Say, if you had your choice to seed all the games in this contest within their division, what do you think it would look like? In fact, I'll just do the first division now, as I don't feel like spending that much time. I'll leave the original seeds there so you can see the movement of it all, heh.

Division 8:
1. Super Mario Bros. 3
3. Legend of Zelda
4. Final Fantasy
8. Metroid - this could give Final Fantasy a good run, though...
2. Tetris
12. Contra - Pac-Man could be ahead of Contra, but it looked pretty good against Phantasy Star...
9. Pac-Man
6. Donkey Kong
11. Duck Hunt
7. Pong
5. Phantasy Star
16. Metal Gear
15. Galaga
10. River City Ransom - 32% against Pong? PONG?
13. Pitfall
14. Adventure

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Tai | Posted: 4/17/2004 7:08:56 AM | Message Detail
Hmm...I'm gonna make a topic based on yesterday's match..right after I update for today's match in the Stats topic.
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Welcome to Sp2CK4, where your opinion does not matter. -Xenobi.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/17/2004 8:07:18 AM | Message Detail
Well, FFVI is meeting my expectations heavily only a percentage (if that) below what I predicted with 75.31%. Still makes for an interesting match against LttP.
---
The Reaper is always just a step behind me...
SPC2k4 : Winner - Chrono Trigger
From: Slowflake | Posted: 4/17/2004 8:40:22 AM | Message Detail
Good idea Haste2. I'll do them as I would have if we were still in the pre-contest period, so don't be surprised if PS is ahead of Contra and stuff like that.

DIVISION 8
1. Super Mario Bros. 3
2. Legend of Zelda
3. Final Fantasy
4. Metroid
5. Tetris
6. Pac-Man
7. Duck Hunt
8. Donkey Kong
9. Pong
10. Metal Gear
11. Phantasy Star
12. Contra
13. River City Ransom
14. Pitfall
15. Galaga
16. Adventure

DIVISION 16
1. Chrono Trigger
2. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
3. Super Metroid
4. Super Mario World
5. Final Fantasy 6
6. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
7. Street Fighter 2
8. Super Mario RPG
9. Mortal Kombat
10. Earthbound
11. Doom
12. Phantasy Star 4
13. Secret of Mana
14. Shining Force
15. The Simpsons
16. Gunstar Heroes

DIVISION 32/64
1. Final Fantasy 7
2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3. Metal Gear Solid
4. Super Mario 64
5. Goldeneye
6. Final Fantasy Tactics
7. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
8. Xenogears
9. Perfect Dark
10. Resident Evil
11. Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal
12. Suikoden 2
13. Dance Dance Revolution
14. Fallout 2
15. NiGHTS Into Dreams
16. Panzer Dragoon Saga

DIVISION 128
1. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
2. Final Fantasy 10
3. Metroid Prime
4. Super Smash Bros. Melee
5. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
6. Kingdom Hearts
7. Metal Gear Solid 2
8. Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
9. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
10. Halo: Combat Evolved
11. Starcraft
12. Half-Life
13. Fire Emblem
14. Skies of Arcadia
15. Soul Calibur
16. Shenmue
---
SpC2K4 Status --- Points: 011/015 --- Matches: 11/15 --- Rank: ?????/????? --- Today's pick: FF6
From: smitelf | Posted: 4/17/2004 10:44:58 AM | Message Detail
Here’s how I would have done the division seeding before the contest started:

DIVISION 8
1. Super Mario Bros. 3
2. Legend of Zelda
3. Final Fantasy
4. Tetris
5. Metroid
6. Metal Gear
7. Pac-Man
8. Contra
9. Pong
10. Donkey Kong
11. Duck Hunt
12. Pitfall
13. Phantasy Star
14. Galaga
15. River City Ransom
16. Adventure

DIVISION 16
1. Chrono Trigger
2. Final Fantasy 6
3. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past
4. Super Metroid
5. Super Mario World
6. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
7. Super Mario RPG
8. Street Fighter 2
9. Mortal Kombat
10. Doom
11. Secret of Mana
12. Earthbound
13. Phantasy Star 4
14. The Simpsons
15. Gunstar Heroes
16. Shining Force

DIVISION 32/64
1. Final Fantasy 7
2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
3. Metal Gear Solid
4. Goldeneye
5. Super Mario 64
6. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
7. Perfect Dark
8. Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal
9. Resident Evil
10. Suikoden 2
11. Final Fantasy Tactics
12. Xenogears
13. Dance Dance Revolution
14. Fallout 2
15. Panzer Dragoon Saga
16. NiGHTS Into Dreams

DIVISION 128
1. Final Fantasy 10
2. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
3. Super Smash Bros. Melee
4. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
5. Metroid Prime
6. Kingdom Hearts
7. Starcraft
8. Half-Life
9. Halo: Combat Evolved
10. Metal Gear Solid 2
11. Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
12. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
13. Skies of Arcadia
14. Fire Emblem
15. Soul Calibur
16. Shenmue
---
Engaged to MWIS 04/07/04
Current Sp2K4 Score: 14/14, Next Winner: Doom
From: cyko | Posted: 4/17/2004 11:58:53 AM | Message Detail
lol, i was also thinkning of posting how i thought each game should be seeded by how strong i feel each game is. i was gonna wait til the end of the first round, but since a couple of others are, here's mine without looking at anyone's elses list in detail:

8-Bit Division

1. Super Mario Bros. 3
2. Legend of Zelda
3. Final Fantasy
4. Metroid (underseeded)
5. Tetris
6. Contra (underseeded)
7. Donkey Kong
8. Duck Hunt
9. Metal Gear (underseeded)
10. Pong
11. Pac-Man
12. Phantasy Star (terribly overseeded)
13. River City Ransom
14. Galaga
15. Pitfall
16. Adventure

it's kinda amusing how SMB3 will have to take out pretty much the next three strongest games in it's division.

16-Bit Division

1. Chrono Trigger
2. Legend of Zelda:LTTP (underseeded)
3. Final Fantasy 3/6
4. Super Metroid
5. Super Mario World
6. Sonic 2
7. Super Mario RPG
8. Street Fighter 2
9. Mortal Kombat
10. Doom
11. Secret of Mana (underseeded)
12. Earthbound
13. The Simpsons
14. Phantasy Star 4
15. Shining Force
16. Gunstar Heroes (overseeded, but still a great game!!)

in my mind, LTTP vs. Gunstar Heroes was basically a 2 or a 3 against a 16 seed. hence the huge blowout.

these two divisions are a little tougher to gauge though, since we haven't really seen them in action yet.

32/64 Division

1. Final Fantasy 7
2. Legend of Zelda:OOT
3. Super Mario 64 (underseeded)
4. Metal Gear Solid
5. Final Fantasy Tactics
6. Castlevania: SotN (underseeded)
7. Goldeneye 007
8. Perfect Dark
9. Pokemon G/S/C
10. Xenogears
11. Resident Evil
12. Suikoden 2
13. Dance Dance Revolution
14. Fallout 2
15. Panzer Draggon Saga
16. Nights (overseeded)

SM64 vs Nights will be the most lopsided 7 vs 10 match since Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan (ha!).

128-Bit Division

1. Final Fantasy X
2. Super Smash Bros. Melee
3. Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker
4. Metroid Prime
5. Kingdom Hearts
6. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
7. Halo (overseeded)
8. Starcraft (underseeded)
9. Metal Gear Solid 2 (underseeded)
10. Star Wars: Knight of the Old Republic
11. Final Fantasy Tactics Advance (overseeded)
12. Fire Emblem
13. Soul Calibur (i have issues with putting SC so low, but noone seems to support fighters.)
14. Half-Life
15. Skies of Arcadia
16. Shenmue

this division was all screwy. the 3 vs 14 is in reality a 1 vs 16 beating, while the 1 vs 16 is actually closer to a 7 vs 8 battle.

---
Current Score: 16/17 (through FF7 vs Suikoden 2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: cyko | Posted: 4/17/2004 12:10:06 PM | Message Detail
gonna have to repost it in the next topic, but until then:

new entries are now in bold.

Top 5 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 90.40% - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 82.30% - Legend of Zelda : LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 75.28% - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
4) 66.58% - Super Metroid over Phantasy Star 4
5) 64.60% - Super Mario Bros. 3 over Metal Gear*

Top 5 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 88208 - Legend of Zelda over Adventure
2) 78272 - Legend of Zelda : LTTP over Gunstar Heroes
3) 74682 - Final Fantasy over Pitfall
4) 61229 - Super Mario World over The Simpsons
5) 59648 - Sonic 2 over Shining Force

Top 5 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 0.14% - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 12.48% - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2
3) 14.08% - Doom over Earthbound

4) 22.04% - Contra over Phantasy Star
5) 36.02% - Pong over River City Ransom

Top 5 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 143 - Donkey Kong over Duck Hunt
2) 12076 - Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter 2
3) 12164 - Doom over Earthbound

4) 20080 - Contra over Phantasy Star
5) 26931 - Metroid over Pac-Man

Top 5 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 99194 - Final Fantasy vs. Pitfall
2) 97580 - Legend of Zelda vs. Adventure
3) 97285 - Super Mario World vs. The Simpsons
4) 97126 - Sonic 2 vs. Shining Force
5) 97031 - Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt

Top 5 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 72743 - Metroid vs. Pac-Man *
2) 74556 - Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. Metal Gear *
3) 84501 - Tetris vs. Galaga
4) 84664 - Super Metroid vs. Phantasy Star 4
5) 84804 - Pong vs. River City Ransom

Top 5 Highest Individual Votes

1) 92894 - Legend of Zelda
2) 86938 - Final Fantasy
3) 86690 - Legend of Zelda: LTTP
4) 79257 - Super Mario World
5) 78387 - Sonic 2

Top 5 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 4686 - Adventure
2) 8418 - Gunstar Heroes
3) 12256 - Pitfall
4) 13197 - Metal Gear
5) 14144 - Phantasy Star 4

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 48444 - Duck Hunt
2) 42314 - Street Fighter 2
3) 37127 - Earthbound

4) 35513 - Phantasy Star
5) 27130 - River City Ransom

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 48587 - Donkey Kong
2) 49291 - Doom

3) 49837 - Metroid *
4) 54390 - Super Mario RPG
5) 55593 - Contra

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) no data yet, but soon!!!
2)
3)
4)
5)

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) no data yet...... hopefully soon.........
2)
3)
4)
5)

* = shared PotD with GameRiot poll

---
Current Score: 16/17 (through FF7 vs Suikoden 2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: Yesmar | Posted: 4/17/2004 12:21:55 PM | Message Detail
Yesmar's Contest Comments: Day 16: 4/17/04

· Final Fantasy VI's percentage has been slipping all morning and if it continues at this rate I'm afraid I'm gonna have to say that it will probably lose to A Link to the Past.

· Still, I'm not that surprised that Mortal Kombat is doing as well as it is. Scorpion does perform respectably in the Summer Contests, as undeserving as his Elite Eight spot was.

· Even though tomorrow's match is sure to be a huge blowout, I am still very excited for it. It will be our first chance to see one of the potential winners in action. Should be very interesting.
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Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing...--Ganondorf
From: Tai | Posted: 4/17/2004 12:23:33 PM | Message Detail
Final Fantasy might be under 70% by the end of the day.

I hope i have the 500th post :-)
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Welcome to Sp2CK4, where your opinion does not matter. -Xenobi.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 4/17/2004 12:25:20 PM | Message Detail
I`m already going to say, LttP is in the division finals.
---
The Reaper is always just a step behind me...
SPC2k4 : Winner - Chrono Trigger
From: cyko | Posted: 4/17/2004 12:26:05 PM | Message Detail
well, FF6 just had it's first percentage gain in quite a while. it's not quite dead yet!!

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Current Score: 16/17 (through FF7 vs Suikoden 2) ?????/????? with ???? other people
A WINNER of Trivia 12
From: Wonderbird | Posted: 4/17/2004 12:26:43 PM | Message Detail
ff6 won why bother.
---
Vote in the Ultimate NHL team ever survivor. http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=2000212&topic=13510832
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