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| Spring 2004 Contest |
| Pre-Season Spring 2004 Contest Discussion - Part 3 |
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| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/28/2004 12:08:36 PM | Message Detail |
| For a few observations on Division 128, as far as the point value goes... FF10 is way, way, way behind the other Final 4 members. Of course, it's the weakest link, but when so few have SMB3 making it to the finals, it tells you something about the faith the bracketeers put in it. In fact, its match vs. SSBM/VC comes very close to creating another MP/WW-like paradox, which I explained above. WW is the last Elite 8 rep, not too far behind the others, but it's also the only one to get beaten by one of the "yellows" (FF6). Speaking of these "yellows", funny how Metroid Prime, poised to be a second round loser, still finds a way to beat five of them. Of course, the reason is Kingdom Hearts... the winner of MP/WW will definitely beat it, inflating the point value to humongous proportions. And then we have Starcraft, the best of the "reds", and it would be by far had that one guy not picked DDR to win it all. Once again shows that Starcraft is by no means a 16-seed. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/28/2004 3:34:34 PM | Message Detail |
| And
then we have Starcraft, the best of the "reds", and it would be by far
had that one guy not picked DDR to win it all. Once again shows that
Starcraft is by no means a 16-seed. ...and that Halo is no proper 1-seed. That division is so damn weak though...why? Have we had so few decent games come out recently? Many of my faves are in that division (FFX, KOTOR) but the overall quality (and/or recognition of quality) is low there. I'd be very interested to see a match between the winner of Division 8 and the winner of Division 128. --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: cyko | Posted: 3/28/2004 3:48:15 PM | Message Detail |
| it's
not really that they are low quality, but being so new, we haven't
really seen the staying power that some of the games from this
generation can muster up yet. in the other divisions, the games have
had years to prove which ones are still great and which ones have not
lost their legions of fans. --- Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now. A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12 |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/28/2004 3:50:39 PM | Message Detail |
| The
division isn't weak by itself... the nostalgia factor hasn't had time
to build up yet. That's why division 16 is definitely the strongest
division... Division 32/64 reminds me of 2002 North. Only 2
championship-level contenders, surrounded by 14 jobbers. But Division 128 is definitely the most competitive, perhaps because of the newness factor. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: nh82 | Posted: 3/28/2004 6:08:48 PM | Message Detail |
| Don't know how relevant this is, but was anyone else surprised by the results of the PotD today?? I counted up that I own 5 FF titles, and figured as I clicked it that there'd be some sort of normal distribution - my logic being that most people who've played any of the next-gen FFs will have probably collected them all and have roughly 4-6 titles. Then there'd be a hardcore minority who've got them all - or near enough, giving us a nice bell-shaped curve. However, it seems that aside from the 20% who own no titles at all, it's totally evenly spread between owning 1 to all 12! Not at all helpful in contest discussion, but I thought it was fairly interesting (though no doubt someone will come up with a very plausible explanation now... not feeling up to it myself as i've only just got up!) |
| From: Mild Guy | Posted: 3/28/2004 6:32:29 PM | Message Detail |
| There
are plenty of great games to have come out in this generation. It's
just that most of them didn't make it into this contest bracket. Is 16 really the strongest? With the voters I'd say no. Too few voting were heavily into gaming in those days. I'd say 32/64 and 128 have the most real fans on this site. --- Death to the Alliance! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/28/2004 7:05:22 PM | Message Detail |
| Well,
I was surprised too at the shape of the PotD. I think 20% not owning
any FF is a little low, though. I'd have expected 25-30%. But hey, this
is GameFAQs... And 32/64 the strongest? Excuse me, but, well, we have FF7... and we have OoT... and then... then... wait a minute... we have GOLDENEYE, SOTN AND MGS!!! What juggernauts! Meanwhile, we have CT, LttP, SM, FF6, and SMW in division 16, and I think they could easily beat Goldeneye or MGS. Conclusion: even though most people have a champion coming out of 32/64, it doesn't mean it's the strongest. Mario, Link and Cloud were all huge favorites in 2002, but the fact remains, they were in divisions of wimps. And as far as Division 128 goes... in the BOP, only ONE bracket out of 81 has the winner of the division going to the finals (the pick was SSBM). Think of FF7 vs. FF10, or OoT vs. WW... that's ugly, even without SFF. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/28/2004 11:32:32 PM | Message Detail |
| Yes,
I know it's getting dangerous close to the start of the Spring Contest,
but I was thinking of doing a challenge based on predicting the
prediction percentages of each match. (i.e. would you predict that
42.11% of the brackets had Wario vs. Shadow correct?) I would hate to
do a lot of work for nothing, so do you think anybody would have any
interest at all in such a challenge? Also, what would be a somewhat appealing name for this challenge? Prediction Percentage Challenge sounds rather bland...(though the acronym "PPC" doesn't sound too bad) Oh, and if someone else would be interested in starting this type of thing up real quick, I'll certainly let you do so. I'm more interested in simply participating in this sort of thing, rather than running it. ;) --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/28/2004 11:40:36 PM | Message Detail |
| Ah,
I just remembered something...Lady Celes' 5 Question Challenge!
Sometimes that challenge had you predict what the prediction percentage
would be for that day's match! Of course, I have no idea if she'll do
that challenge again this year... if she doesn't, I'll ask if I can do
it... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Mild Guy | Posted: 3/28/2004 11:57:27 PM | Message Detail |
| Well,
Slow, there's only about 1 game from 8 bit and 16 bit that has any
shot. CT. Everything else from those two isn't going to make it. Heck, you just said yourself, the two latter divisions have OOT, and FF7, the two games most likely to win. The modern will have too many split fanbases to allow any one game to appear very strong in that division. But most of those would beat the 16 bit games, much less the 8 bit titles (save SMB3, and even that may be pushing it). Sorry, Slow, but I haven't seen enough support for pre-32 games to convince me that they have any real backing. The only things that have less backing are XBox exclusives and PC games. Except for CT. Can't really figure out it's popularity, maybe it's the DBZ character designs, who knows? Mock me all ya want, Slow, but I'm just calling it as I've seen it over the past 2 years. Naming Mario and Link as examples of old school power is only half true. Tremendous name recognition from the old days is a big factor, but then they have both had successful revivals in the 64 bit era, so there ya go. --- Death to the Alliance! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/29/2004 1:27:22 AM | Message Detail |
| Yes,
I know it's getting dangerous close to the start of the Spring Contest,
but I was thinking of doing a challenge based on predicting the
prediction percentages of each match That would be very interesting. It should be fun. I wonder how good people would be at this. Excuse me, but, well, we have FF7... and we have OoT... and then... then... wait a minute... we have GOLDENEYE, SOTN AND MGS!!! What juggernauts! I totally disagree with this...Final Fantasy Tactics, Xenogears, and Suikoden II as a 16h seed...there're some very impressive games there. And yes, Metal Gear Solid is a juggernaut, relatively speaking. I think it might be able to take out anything in the 128 division, and I think it would do well against Super Mario Bros. 3 and The Legend of Zelda. Goldeneye is probably very strong as well. It's just that these games have to go against Final Fanatsy VII and Ocarina of Time. Panzer Dragoon Saga and NIGHTS, and maybe DDR, are the weakest links in the division, but other than that it's a very nice group top-to-bottom. I would agree that the 16 bit Division is stronger overall than the 32-64 division, but the 32-64 is probably the 2nd strongest. The division isn't weak by itself... the nostalgia factor hasn't had time to build up yet Again, I very much disagree. I don't think it much to do with nostalgia factor. Are Wind Waker and Metroid Prime really going to be all that beloved 5-8 years from now, like Link to the Past and Super Metroid are? EXTREMELY doubtful (though I'd buy it more for Metroid Prime). They just didn't sell enough, and in the case of Wind Waker, weren't as universally praised as their predecessors. Final Fantasy X, the GTA games, etc. probably aren't going to be able to rely on nostalgia either. I don't think they'd do nearly as well a few years from now, as a bunch of games from a few years back will do today. Even though video games have been huge the past few years, and overall game quality has been very respectable, you haven't had the extreme standout games in terms of memorability if you compare to past eras. And there were more outlier games in past eras in terms of sales too. This could be an indication of consolidation as the industry matures and outlier games are less dominant; or this might just be a statistical fluke, since games that sell, for instance, 5+ million copies are relatively rare anyway. Sorry, Slow, but I haven't seen enough support for pre-32 games to convince me that they have any real backing Link to the Past, Super Metroid, and Final Fantasy VI would definitely hold their own against anything in the 128 division. Probably Super Mario World as well. You'd probably have to find reasons to think a 128 division game would be able to beat Link to the Past, rather than the other way around. I'm pretty confident Chrono Trigger would dismiss Final Fantasy X, Wind Waker, Metroid Prime, and SSBM without breaking a sweat. I'm guessing that the 16 bit division will fare much better in the extrapolated standings than the 128 division, both on average and in terms of the top games. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: Starion | Posted: 3/29/2004 1:39:06 AM | Message Detail |
| I
also have my doubts about the present crop of games being loved and
praise in the future. However, I take issue with your assertion that WW
and Metroid Prime didn't sell well enough. How many copies do you think
they should have sold to be considered "well enough?" --- This space is reserved. |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/29/2004 5:49:13 AM | Message Detail |
| The
insane conservatism of the Nintendo fanbase is going to kill their
legacy. I mean, I liked Prime more than Super, and WW almost as much as
OoT. But double standards among Nintendo fanboys are just plain
annoying. For example... for every WW sailing session, there's a long
trip in OoT Hyrule Field. And I could go on an on about this one. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/29/2004 5:50:03 AM | Message Detail |
| Wait
a minute, I forgot to ask my question... what is going to stand out
more to us in 10 years, WW and Prime or FF10 and Vice City? --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 3/29/2004 5:57:04 AM | Message Detail |
| For example... for every WW sailing session, there's a long trip in OoT Hyrule Field Indeed. But the WW sailing session lasts at least twice longer. And you don't have to change the wind direction to go all around Lon Lon Ranch. --- I'd rather be damned for my own beliefs, than be damned for someone else's. - Shake [This sig has been approved by UltimaterializerX] |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/29/2004 5:59:24 AM | Message Detail |
| As
I said, I could make a lot of points for WW, but I'm not even going to
bother, because this topic isn't for that kind of debates. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: DaruniaTheKing | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:12:28 AM | Message Detail |
| *looks at today's poll* FF6 has over 1/3 of FF7's voters, and FF10 is fourth. Get ready to a MP(WW)/SSBM Division 128 final. Get also ready to a really close SM(LttP)/FF6 match-up, and, unless SMW or SMRPG does something freaky, to see CT in the Final Four. Results as this post's time: I 1.24% 137 II 0.57% 63 III 2.61% 288 IV 3.15% 348 V 1.41% 155 VI 14.59% 1609 VII 36.22% 3995 VIII 10.95% 1208 IX 5.37% 592 X 9.44% 1041 X-2 2.59% 286 XI 2.07% 228 I've never played any of them 9.8% 1081 TOTAL VOTES 11031 --- AIM: DaruniaTheK1ng MSN: the_real_chain_man at hotmail dot com |
| From: cyko | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:13:02 AM | Message Detail |
| i'm
sorry, but i had to laugh when i saw today's poll. but, if you compare
today's poll with the last "Favorite Final Fantasy" poll, not much as
changed: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=1178 except, that Final Fantasy X has dropped quite a bit, putting it in fourth now, behind FF8. FFX seems to have lost some popularity. does that mean it may not be as strong as we thought? as if the 128 Division wasn't tough enough............. now, watch. tomorrow's poll will be, "what's your favorite all-time Zelda game?" --- Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now. A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12 |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:13:03 AM | Message Detail |
| Okay,
announcement time. Sometime on April 2nd, I will be posting a topic for
our Discussion Crew`s little contest. You all have 48 hours from the
time that topic opens to post your bracket. That`s it. Any more leeway
just allows for people to lie about matches 2 and 3, and personally,
even 48 hours is a bit much. But I know how busy we all are, so I think
48 hours is a fair window. The rules are very simple. Post your bracket within the 48 hour window, plus your tiebreaker. And only those who have signed up will be considered, so we don`t have to worry about outsiders barging in on our stuff. Also, if you miss posting your bracket within the time frame, that`s it. I`m giving everyone a four day warning, and it`s longer considering the 48 hour window. Don`t complain if you miss out. --- MIASU! Boards Hunted: 3509 My Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: Scipio Africanus | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:21:15 AM | Message Detail |
FF6 has over 1/3 of FF7's voters, and FF10 is fourth. Get ready to a MP(WW)/SSBM Division 128 final. Darunia, Darunia, Darunia. Quick to fall into the grasp of the poll machine, eh? "The polls say FFX is fourth, thus FFX will lose to games not even in the poll itself!" Shouts the Darunian. I shout back "Meh. Right." Let's bring out the evidence, shall we? POINT I: FFVIII, FFIX, FFX-2, FF2-5, and FFXI are not in the contest. Take out every single one of those FFs. Let's make it a four-way poll between the four FFs in the contest: FF1, FF6, FF7, and FFX. Where do you think most of the FF8/9/2-5/X-2 voters are going to go? Well, we know where the the FFX-2 voters are going to go. Chances are, if you love FFX-2, you love FFX. And FF8 and FF9 voters...the two largest remaining voting contingencies...are Playstation-era RPGers far more likely to support FFX over FF6. So point #1 is: FFX's results in this poll have nothing to do with its popularity over other Nintendo games, or even other Final Fantasies in particular. It only means that FFX ranks 4th in terms of hardcore support. But the casual support will likely rank and file behind it, and everyone participating in an FF poll, or anyone who likes FF in particular, is likely to support any FF against any non-FF game in a contest. If you want to see a poll that's actually pretty important as to determining who makes it to the 128-division, let's look at FFX-2 VS Wind Waker, Best Game of 2003. Wind Waker beats FFX-2 by a few thousand votes, right? Hardly an overwhelming victory by any means. But wait! Glance back at today's poll! Why, it seems FFX-2 lacks the hardcore support FFX could muster! Egads! This would seem to suggest that FFX could very well murder Wind Waker if the two were to meet, would it not?! After all, FFX-2 is generally considered to be a far worse sequel, and a lot of gamers who liked FFX found its sequel mediocre because of the Charlie's Angels theme. This PWNing session is brought to you by MWIS, who reminds you to laugh at Darunia after FFX wins the 128-bit division. --- TU NE CEDE MALIS SED CONTRA AUDENTIOR ITO. |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:25:29 AM | Message Detail |
| I`m
becoming very confident that Starcraft will beat Halo. Look at every
one of those "Got __________?" polls. The overwhelming majority of us
own a gaming quality PC, as well as refuses to get an Xbox. And simply
put, if you own a PC, you`re an outcast if you haven`t played the
absolute work of art that is Starcraft by now. Add that in with Xbox
hate, and we may have an "upset" on our hands. --- MIASU! Boards Hunted: 3509 My Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: DaruniaTheKing | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:25:32 AM | Message Detail |
| *waves the "PWNED" flag* Happy? --- AIM: DaruniaTheK1ng MSN: the_real_chain_man at hotmail dot com |
| From: Scipio Africanus | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:26:17 AM | Message Detail |
^_~ ...only if you're serious. --- TU NE CEDE MALIS SED CONTRA AUDENTIOR ITO. |
| From: DaruniaTheKing | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:28:45 AM | Message Detail |
| Sadly I am being serious. --- AIM: DaruniaTheK1ng MSN: the_real_chain_man at hotmail dot com |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:44:40 AM | Message Detail |
| Except
that the variety of big PC games is much, much bigger than for the
X-Box... they have Halo, KOTOR, and Ninja Gaiden. Period. So while a
huge majority of X-Box owners probably own Halo, the same can't be said
for the PC and Starcraft. Now, for the interesting part. The PotD. Indeed, not much has changed since last time, except for one thing. There is a new "I never played any" option... and it seems to sap votes from both FF7 and FF10, but not from either of the others. And FF10 slipping behind FF8 is a big surprise indeed. Of course, it has all day to come back, and believe me, it can. But for now, while I agree with MWIS for the most part, FFX DOES look a little weaker, since a lot of the FFX-picking people based it on its strength in such a poll. And MWIS still forgets something... voters don't vote in blocks. Therefore, the amount of time that passed between the last poll and now may STILL be hindering FF10 in matches against SSBM or WW. And it's not the first time we're seeing that either... between the two polls BEFORE this one, FF10 lost a lot of ground as well. Now, a hypothetical Squall vs. Tidus match was heavily debated last fall... I think a poll like this should only add more fuel to the fire. BUT... but... Tidus was already way behind Squall in PotDs, yet ahead in contests. So we might want to take today's poll with a grain of salt... contest logic =/= PotD logic. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: Scipio Africanus | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:49:25 AM | Message Detail |
And it's not the first time we're seeing that either... between the two polls BEFORE this one, FF10 lost a lot of ground as well. That might have a little more to do with the effect of FFX-2 having come out, though. An average casual fan who might like both games is bound to vote for one or the other; if one were to combine FFX-2 and FFX into one "entity" or "series" with this poll you'd be seeing a more non-existant rate of "decline". Remember, in the earlier polls FFX may not have had FFX-2 to "compete with". And furthermore, exactly what other explanation is there? I mean, there'd have to be a reason behind FFX losing a lot of support, and I'm just not seeing any reason behind it at all, unless people had started the series with FFX and subsequently began playing the older ones. O_o --- TU NE CEDE MALIS SED CONTRA AUDENTIOR ITO. |
| From: Sir Shake | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:58:04 AM | Message Detail |
I think that in a direct match-up, FFX would definitely win over FFVI. The post-FFVI games receive much more support then the ones released prior to it. They're 'leeching' off FFX. --- My life is like Super Mario Bros ; no matter how much I pursue the girl, she ends up in another castle. ~ dj kornphlake |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/29/2004 6:59:28 AM | Message Detail |
| Actually,
I`m beginning to think that FFX is seriously becoming weaker, and might
only be the FOURTH strongest game in its division behind Melee, Wind
Waker, and Metroid Prime. I could honestly see any of those games
taking down FFX. --- MIASU! Boards Hunted: 3509 My Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/29/2004 7:01:11 AM | Message Detail |
| So... SSBM vs. FF10 is becoming the hot match once again? One thing's for sure, many people who had picked FF10 to win the division will think twice. Come to think of it, why don't we ever see any of these polls for Mario, Zelda, Metroid, or Sonic? --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/29/2004 7:03:13 AM | Message Detail |
| Come to think of it, why don't we ever see any of these polls for Mario, Zelda, Metroid, or Sonic? They don`t release a game lauded by blind fans every 1.4 hours. --- MIASU! Boards Hunted: 3509 My Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: Ringworm | Posted: 3/29/2004 7:03:49 AM | Message Detail |
| Finally had time to read through the whole topic. Been meaning to for a while, just not had time. Favourite FF doesn't really mean all that much. The "No FF" bit is more important IMO - less than 10%. Add that to the last poll, and I can say quite a few voters would have played FFX. It may not be their favourite of the series, doesn't mean they don't like it though. I'm surprised FFIV is so low really, but that's got nothing to do with the contest (it's probably my favourite, and the one I voted for). I'm still sticking with SSBM to take the division, but FFX will probably beat it. Need a few upsets to have any chance of winning. The main thing to take out of it - FF7 with 36% is going to be hard to beat. I know I haven't been really active here, but I'd be willing to join your contest. I'll have room in my sig for a while between contests. Won't need it though :) I'll try to contribute a bit more here, depends how much free time I get. --- Everyone that says ''There's no such thing as a stupid question'', has obviously never visited this board. SpC2K3 Betting: Board 8, Topic 13293001 |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/29/2004 7:05:17 AM | Message Detail |
| Ringworm, trust me, you could not post for a year and still have a great legacy in my eyes. And if you want to add yourself to the contest, copy-paste the list and remember to post your bracket in my topic in a few days. --- MIASU! Boards Hunted: 3509 My Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: Ringworm | Posted: 3/29/2004 7:09:17 AM | Message Detail |
| Fine: 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. Ngamer 6. ChichiriMuyo 7. cyko 8. Z1mzum 9. Haste2 10. Neoatomtaco 11. Heroic Mario 12. i am vishnu 2 13. Yesmar 14. solarshadow 15. StopPokingMe 16. charmander6000 17. torey luvullo 18. Sir Chris 19. creativename 20. swirldude 21. Xuxon 22. King Morgoth 23. smitelf 24. nh82 25. Team Rocket Elite 26. Sephirot1 27. EvilNcr 28. IMAP 29. Bananaquest 30. FastFalcon 31. Ringworm My bracket's in Slowflake's topic. I'm not changing it. I'll make sure I remember to post in your topic too though. --- Everyone that says ''There's no such thing as a stupid question'', has obviously never visited this board. SpC2K3 Betting: Board 8, Topic 13293001 |
| From: Scipio Africanus | Posted: 3/29/2004 7:13:52 AM | Message Detail |
Alright, Ulti, since logic seems to totally ignore you, allow me to statistically debunk this "FFX is going DOWN" theory of yours. First of all, until there's ever a matchup that actually has Metroid Prime, Wind Waker, FFX, and SSBM as four choices too choose from, we'll never know exactly how well FFX would do against those games. However, at the very least, I can debunk the "FFX is becoming weak as pie" theory with the following statistical presentation. As of this moment: TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE VOTING FOR NES/SNES-ERA RPGS: 3153 TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE VOTING FOR PS1-ERA RPGS: 6951 TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE VOTING FOR PS2-ERA RPGS: 1875 Easy to look at the above and argue that FFX is losing out big, and its era is suffering, but there are six SNES era RPGs and only three PS2-era RPGs. Now, what does this prove? The PS1 era is undoubtedly the most popular for Final Fantasies Which means? Well, PS1 RPG gamers are more likely to own a copy of FFX than they are FF6 (note the number of people you run into who say "I started with FFVII and then played VIII, IX, and X). I'd bet all the money I own that if you take out all the PS1 era RPGs, the PS2-era will get a significant boost. But that doesn't really matter, because all this poll measures is hardcore support for a particular FF game. So yes, there are more hardcore FFVI fans out there than FFX fans; we already knew that, though. There's a large contigency of SNES-era RPG fanatics who believe that FFVI is God's greatest gift to mankind (and I don't blame 'em). To contrast, FFX's strength is not in hardcore love. The game's only been out a few years. It's not known for a strong hardcore fanbase; its strength is in casual appeal to people who generally like the series, and to PS1 and PS2 RPG gamers. So, put FFVI VS FFX together in a two-way poll. I bet you FFX comes in first. ...no, seriously. Don't point your gun at me and threaten me with cusses just yet, FFVI lovers. With those statistics, I think it would. Because FFX would garner a bigger percentage of the dominant FF7, FF8, and FF9 voters. So a majority of the 6951 people who preferred a PS1-era RPG would join the 1875 who prefer PS2 RPGs, ofsetting the 1,000 or so vote disadvantage FFX would have straight up. Does this mean that FFX would beat FFVI if they met together in the contest? I'm not sure, but I do know that based on Summer Contest statistics, Auron and/or Tidus could have their way with Kefka. Bottom line is, this poll really changes nothing because Wind Waker, Metroid Prime, and SSBM aren't choices. If they were, and FFX was in third or fourth place, I'd say FFX was in serious trouble. Till then, it's hard to say exactly how any of the FF8/FF7/FF6 voters would vote in an FFX VS (insert 128-bit game here) match. --- TU NE CEDE MALIS SED CONTRA AUDENTIOR ITO. |
| From: Phediuk | Posted: 3/29/2004 7:59:41 AM | Message Detail |
| Also,
what would be a somewhat appealing name for this challenge? Prediction
Percentage Challenge sounds rather bland...(though the acronym "PPC"
doesn't sound too bad) Keeping up with the whole prophet/oracle theme, I think you should name it the "Paragon Percentage Challenge." It has a bit of ring to it. What do you think? --- "Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle." -Toad in Super Mario Bros. |
| From: Bananaquest | Posted: 3/29/2004 8:55:19 AM | Message Detail |
| Current Scoreboard ~ as of post time Final Fantasy I 1.55% 299 Final Fantasy II 0.64% 124 Final Fantasy III 2.92% 561 Final Fantasy IV 3.23% 622 Final Fantasy V 1.46% 280 Final Fantasy VI 14.35% 2761 <-- currently in 2nd place (a distant 2nd) Final Fantasy VII 35.57% 6844 Final Fantasy VIII 10.53% 2027 Final Fantasy IX 5.45% 1048 Final Fantasy X 9.47% 1823 Final Fantasy X-2 2.35% 453 Final Fantasy XI 2.2% 424 I've never played any of them 10.26% 1975 TOTAL VOTES 19241 Will this be enough for FF6 to beat Zelda: Link to the Past? I don't know and it's eating me up inside. If FF6 lags further behind in single percentage points, I would've changed my pick right away. Right now, FF6 gets the nod, based on seeding alone. Other than that, they are basically even and I could just as easily picked LttP for the win. From http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=3 Final Fantasy I 3.25% 191 Final Fantasy II 0.85% 50 Final Fantasy III 2.14% 126 Final Fantasy IV 3.44% 202 Final Fantasy IV EasyType 4.27% 251 Final Fantasy V 4.8% 282 Final Fantasy VI 33.44% 1966 Final Fantasy VII 25.04% 1472 Final Fantasy VIII 22.78% 1339 TOTAL VOTES 5879 Yes, it's an old poll and times have changed. But I felt that it's worth putting up here to show that FF6 was at one point the best Final Fantasy game, beating out FF7. On May 23rd... If FF6 wins, I'll be doing jumping jacks with Fighter and company of FF1. If LttP wins, a nice serving of crow is on order for me. ~_^ --- My Spring 2004 Contest bracket: http://www.bananaquest.com Final Fantasy IX moogles: "I want mail, kupo!" |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/29/2004 9:03:38 AM | Message Detail |
| I
get that nasty feeling that FF1-6 has a whole different fanbase than
FF7-10. And, of course, a smaller one. If this comes out to be true,
LttP wins big. Leveling the field as MWIS said in the other topic, and comparing each game's standings in their respective series... LttP still wins. Summer Contest data isn't too encouraging for FF6, too. Kefka would've needed to come very close to Crono to be able to stand up to a weaker version of Link (what LttP basically represents). And if we were to take the raw data, without altering it, FF6 would lose in the first round. The way I see it, there's no way out for FF6. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 3/29/2004 11:08:00 AM | Message Detail |
| I`m
becoming very confident that Starcraft will beat Halo. Look at every
one of those "Got __________?" polls. The overwhelming majority of us
own a gaming quality PC, as well as refuses to get an Xbox. And Halo is for the PC as well. (To be fair, Starcraft is also for the Nintendo 64... like that's going to be a lot of help.) Easy to look at the above and argue that FFX is losing out big, and its era is suffering, but there are six SNES era RPGs and only three PS2-era RPGs. Including one that's never come out in North America, and one that's only been available for about a year. Well, PS1 RPG gamers are more likely to own a copy of FFX than they are FF6 (note the number of people you run into who say "I started with FFVII and then played VIII, IX, and X). I'd bet all the money I own that if you take out all the PS1 era RPGs, the PS2-era will get a significant boost. And PS1 RPG gamers are more likely to have a game released for PS2 rather than a game that got re-released for PS1... why? --- Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) Chanting Monks www.rpgdl.com |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/29/2004 11:33:10 AM | Message Detail |
| Except
that the variety of big PC games is much, much bigger than for the
X-Box... they have Halo, KOTOR, and Ninja Gaiden. Period. Ahem. Morrowind? Actually, I`m beginning to think that FFX is seriously becoming weaker, and might only be the FOURTH strongest game in its division behind Melee, Wind Waker, and Metroid Prime. I could honestly see any of those games taking down FFX. Wow, scratch one less bracket I have to contend with. So... SSBM vs. FF10 is becoming the hot match once again? One thing's for sure, many people who had picked FF10 to win the division will think twice. And then there are those like me who laugh in the face of SSBM despite misleading poll results. The reasoning behind calling the poll useless has already been adequately put forth by other posters. Does this mean that FFX would beat FFVI if they met together in the contest? I'm not sure, but I do know that based on Summer Contest statistics, Auron and/or Tidus could have their way with Kefka. I agree with the rest of your post but I disagree with comparing character performance to game performance in this case. Kefka has a sizeable cult following but not the backing of the game’s fanbase – villains rarely do, Sephiroth being an exception. If the fanbases did coincide so neatly then I'd say that CT is going to get raped by LttP based on Magus' performance. --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/29/2004 11:38:47 AM | Message Detail |
| The problem is... there's no fixed hero in FF6. So I could buy Kefka being the strongest FF6 rep. Frightening. As far as SSBM/FF10 goes, I didn't say I would give it a second thought. But others could and will. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW Board Odds Project: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls |
| From: Mild Guy | Posted: 3/29/2004 12:26:12 PM | Message Detail |
| I
wouldn't be surprised to see lower vote totals on average for 8 bit and
16 bit matches. Notice I say "on average." I'm sure CT and Nintendo's
holy trinity can draw a crowd, but even still, I'm expecting people to
pass up voting on older game fights a little more often. --- Death to the Alliance! |
| From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/29/2004 1:23:51 PM | Message Detail |
| Wow,
and here I was thinking we might have trouble getting this topic to
last all the way to the 2nd... guess there's just not too much
pre-discussion we haven't already covered two or three times. But on the topic of vote totals... Is anyone else expecting them to be down slightly this time around? And I don't mean that as anything against this contest itself, I've always thought it would be a great idea. But even if the matchups are better, I'm having a hard time seeing a PotD in April outdoing one from the tail end of July. And I could definitely see much of the 8 Bit division as being a bit of a vote drag as well; there's a good number of matchups there that seem to have Gordon/Max Payne written all over them. Now, I could certainly see something like the hopefully epic Ocarina VS FF7 poll being the first to top the 150k mark, but from what I've seen, people seem to be going a bit high on what should be a much smaller number for that Finals tiebreaker. --- the-elite.net Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs |
| From: Yesmar | Posted: 3/29/2004 1:42:27 PM | Message Detail |
| Yes,
I know it's getting dangerous close to the start of the Spring Contest,
but I was thinking of doing a challenge based on predicting the
prediction percentages of each match. I tried that, but nobody responded. I bumped the topic right before I posted this, but I don't know if anyone's posted in it yet. --- Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing...--Ganondorf |
| From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 3/29/2004 1:53:27 PM | Message Detail |
| A
small comment..I have a topic with over 100 posts(more than slow's
bracket count)dedicated to the sonic 2 vs SMW match.more people have
sonic winning..just be warned.. --- Kanye West |
| From: nifboy | Posted: 3/29/2004 2:01:24 PM | Message Detail |
| Ahem. Morrowind? See: Starcraft on N64. --- "We seek as much data - raw facts, direct experience - as we can, and then we make up our own minds." - J. Moore |
| From: MyWorldIsStillSquare | Posted: 3/29/2004 2:03:18 PM | Message Detail |
I'd just like to note that FFX has climbed within 16 votes of FFVIII. Seems I was right, FFX would pick up a bit of slack during the day. --- Official Supporter of Metal Gear Solid in the SP2K4. First to be slaughtered: Resident Evil |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/29/2004 2:06:07 PM | Message Detail |
| Starion: However, I take issue with your assertion that WW and Metroid Prime didn't sell well enough. How many copies do you think they should have sold to be considered "well enough?" Ocarina of Time sold over 6 million copies. Wind Waker less than a quarter of that. I don't know Super Metroid's sales figures, but they were very likely much higher than Metroid Prime's. The SNES was just a vastly more successful system than the GameCube. Slowflake: The insane conservatism of the Nintendo fanbase is going to kill their legacy. "Conservatism"? Do you mean their preference for older games? Obviously that has nothing at all to do with conservatism; it's just that Nintendo's glory days are with the NES and SNES, and the N64 to a lesser extent. cyko: but, if you compare today's poll with the last "Favorite Final Fantasy" poll, not much as changed: [...]except, that Final Fantasy X has dropped quite a bit This is the most recent poll, actually: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=1443 And poll 1178 was before X-2 was released. All of X-2's support seems to come from the X fanbase, which makes perfect sense. Scipio: It only means that FFX ranks 4th in terms of hardcore support. This poll is going to get like 60K-75K votes...I'd hardly call that "hardcore support". The so-called "casual fanbase" are the ones that are voting--or at least, the same exact fanbase as will be voting in the contest--and clearly Final Fantasy X isn't nearly as strong as VII. However, it is definitely strong enough to win its division. The 128 division is just *that* weak. And while I agree that these polls are generally meaningless, we already know that Final Fantasy VII is much stronger than any other series entrant for contest purposes, and this poll only supports that. But that doesn't really matter, because all this poll measures is hardcore support for a particular FF game. Again...this is simply untrue. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/29/2004 2:09:00 PM | Message Detail |
| Slowflake: FFX DOES look a little weaker, since a lot of the FFX-picking people based it on its strength in such a poll I don't see how Final Fantasy X could be considered at all weaker after this poll. This poll changes nothing. It's results basically mirror past polls, except that most games are down a bit because of the "didn't play any" option, but that option is only 10% so it isn't even that significant. Here's what each game dropped by: Final Fantasy : -40% Final Fantasy II : -43% Final Fantasy III : -30.4% Final Fantasy IV : -8.9% Final Fantasy V : -13.4% Final Fantasy VI : -2% Final Fantasy VII : -11% Final Fantasy VIII : -2.3% Final Fantasy IX : 2.7% Final Fantasy X : -14.8% Final Fantasy X-2 : 2.2% Final Fantasy XI : -7.8% VII dropped by 11%, X by about 15%. The overall drop was 10% so this is hardly something to be concerned about. The only games with meaningful drops are the first three, which didn't get significant amounts of votes to begin with, and there will tend to be greater volatility among things that are less popular. (just like how jobbers' performances vary a lot according to the extrapolated results) Shake: I think that in a direct match-up, FFX would definitely win over FFVI. I find this assertion highly dubious. Slowflake: So I could buy Kefka being the strongest FF6 rep. I wouldn't be surprised if Shadow would actually make a stronger competitor. Ngamer: But even if the matchups are better, I'm having a hard time seeing a PotD in April outdoing one from the tail end of July. According to the Alexa data, this site has been a lot more popular during the summer months than the Spring. [Combine these two lines:] http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details? &range=2y&size=medium&compare_sites=&url=gamefaqs.com Of course, most of that could probably be attributed to the popularity of the contests themselves. But it makes sense for gamers to play more during the Summer months, when many are out of school, and thus visit gaming sites more often. Also, they'd probably visit more during the post-Christmas weeks, as they'd be playing their new gifts. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 3/29/2004 2:16:12 PM | Message Detail |
| Shadow
got 45% against Mario...Sonic>(by more than 5
percent)Shadow..Sonic>Mario>Shadow so it makes sense Sonic
2>Super Mario World..but i wanna have the same bracket as my boy
slowflake....so many choices! --- Kanye West |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/29/2004 2:17:41 PM | Message Detail |
| I
just checked the traffic details of other gaming sites to get some
contest-neutral results, but the data is inconclusive as to if gamers
really do visit gaming sites more often during the Summer. The
popularity of each site just isn't consistent enough across years, and
any popularity volatility is more likely due to changes in the
popularity of the individual sites than trends among the gaming
population. Also, Alexa rankings are relative, so they wouldn't reveal which times of year the general internet user population uses the net more or less. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
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