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Spring 2004 Contest

Pre-Season Spring 2004 Contest Discussion - Part 2

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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/18/2004 7:30:41 AM | Message Detail

That does say a bit, however, there was a similar poll for MGS2 the day after it's release and the results were:
Yes, and I already beat it 5.75% 991
Yes, I got it 21.2% 3654
No, but I will very soon 30.55% 5267
No, I don't want it 31.54% 5438
No, it's not out yet where I live 10.96% 1889
TOTAL VOTES 17239

Meaning 27% of GameFAQs user had it the first day! Add to that the fact that over 30% said they'd be getting it soon and you'd think MGS2 would have at least given Raiden a fighting chance. So yes, it's possible Raiden bit the big one due to SFF (I've been saying so for awhile now) or pictures actually do matter to voters. Yes, I know, first games don't help their main characters as much as sequels or games featuring them, but the game WAS big enough that Raiden could have done some damage. So, yes, KH did help a bit (I've never denied that), but I just don't think as an individual game it was fully responsible for Cloud's dramatic increase. On another note, Ceej sucks for putting Raiden against Snake first round because now we have no idea (with certainty) how good Raiden actually is. Oh, and I would bet that anyone that didn't buy KH in the last two months just put "when it came out" and probably an additional 5-10% didn't have the game during the SC2k3. He really should have made an option to clarify if they got it right when it came out, a bit afterwards, or just recently.

Oh, and as a fan of FF7 I really wanted to see Seph in KH, so that's why I bought it and probably the reason why a lot of people bought it... meaning not everyone who bought (in fact, only a small portion of them) were newly exposed to these characters.
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Medieval European Dude #2: It would appear to be a large Mongolian cavalry tearing through our forces like the Church through individual thought and beliefs.

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/18/2004 9:22:20 AM | Message Detail

First update of my Board Odds Project, if you're interested.

Brackets entered: 39

ROUND 1

1. Super Mario Bros. 3 - 39

8. Metroid - 35
9. Pac-Man - 4

12. Contra - 20
5. Phantasy Star - 19

4. Final Fantasy - 38
13. Pitfall - 1

6. Donkey Kong - 24
11. Duck Hunt - 15

3. Legend of Zelda - 39

7. Pong - 33
10. River City Ransom - 6

2. Tetris - 39

1. Chrono Trigger - 38
16. Secret of Mana - 1

9. Street Fighter 2 - 21
8. Super Mario RPG - 18

5. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 39

4. Super Mario World - 39

6. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 39

3. Super Metroid - 39

10. Doom - 20
7. Earthbound - 19

2. Final Fantasy 6 - 39

1. Final Fantasy 7 - 39

9. Xenogears - 20
8. Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal - 19

5. Final Fantasy Tactics - 38
12. Dance Dance Revolution - 1

4. Metal Gear Solid - 39

11. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 29
6. Perfect Dark - 10

3. Goldeneye - 39

7. Super Mario 64 - 38
10. NiGHTS Into Dreams - 1

2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 39

1. Halo: Combat Evolved - 26
16. Starcraft - 13

9. Kingdom Hearts - 38
8. Soul Calibur - 1

5. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 39

4. Metroid Prime - 38
13. Half-Life - 1

6. Final Fantasy Tactics Advance - 37
11. Fire Emblem - 2

3. Final Fantasy 10 - 39

7. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 34
10. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 5

2. Super Smash Bros. Melee - 36
15. Metal Gear Solid 2 - 3

ROUND 2

1. Super Mario Bros. 3 - 39

4. Final Fantasy - 37
12. Contra - 1
13. Pitfall - 1

3. Legend of Zelda - 39

2. Tetris - 38
10. River City Ransom - 1

1. Chrono Trigger - 38
16. Secret of Mana - 1

4. Super Mario World - 32
5. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 7

6. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 34
3. Super Metroid - 5

2. Final Fantasy 6 - 39

1. Final Fantasy 7 - 39

4. Metal Gear Solid - 29
5. Final Fantasy Tactics - 9
12. Dance Dance Revolution - 1

3. Goldeneye - 22
11. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 17

2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 38
7. Super Mario 64 - 1

9. Kingdom Hearts - 31
1. Halo: Combat Evolved - 4
16. Starcraft - 3
8. Soul Calibur - 1

5. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 24
4. Metroid Prime - 15

3. Final Fantasy 10 - 39

2. Super Smash Bros. Melee - 29
7. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 6
10. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 2
15. Metal Gear Solid 2 - 2

ROUND 3

1. Super Mario Bros. 3 - 35
4. Final Fantasy - 4

3. Legend of Zelda - 33
2. Tetris - 5
10. River City Ransom - 1

1. Chrono Trigger - 36
4. Super Mario World - 2
5. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 1

6. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 23
2. Final Fantasy 6 - 13
3. Super Metroid - 3

1. Final Fantasy 7 - 38
12. Dance Dance Revolution - 1

2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 37
7. Super Mario 64 - 1
11. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 1

5. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 17
4. Metroid Prime - 12
9. Kingdom Hearts - 7
16. Starcraft - 2
1. Halo: Combat Evolved - 1

3. Final Fantasy 10 - 26
2. Super Smash Bros. Melee - 12
10. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 1

DIVISION FINALS

1. Super Mario Bros. 3 - 29
3. Legend of Zelda - 8
4. Final Fantasy - 2

1. Chrono Trigger - 36
3. Super Metroid - 1
4. Super Mario World - 1
6. Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 1

1. Final Fantasy 7 - 26
2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 12
12. Dance Dance Revolution - 1

3. Final Fantasy 10 - 14
2. Super Smash Bros. Melee - 9
5. Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 8
4. Metroid Prime - 5
9. Kingdom Hearts - 1
10. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic - 1
16. Starcraft - 1

SEMIFINALS

1. Chrono Trigger - 28
1. Super Mario Bros. 3 - 10
3. Legend of Zelda - 1

1. Final Fantasy 7 - 26
2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 12
12. Dance Dance Revolution - 1

FINALS

1. Final Fantasy 7 - 24
2. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 8
1. Super Mario Bros. 3 - 4
1. Chrono Trigger - 2
12. Dance Dance Revolution - 1

From: smitelf | Posted: 3/18/2004 10:53:42 AM | Message Detail

Meaning 27% of GameFAQs user had it the first day! Add to that the fact that over 30% said they'd be getting it soon and you'd think MGS2 would have at least given Raiden a fighting chance.

But these figures say nothing about whether or not they liked MGS2. What it really says is that people liked Metal Gear Solid and decided to go for the sequel. However, this gave me a good idea for an analysis on Vice City, based on the following two polls:

12/18/2003
Got Grand Theft Auto III and Vice City?

Yes, I own both: 42.93%
Yes, I just have GTA III: 7.49%
Yes, I just have Vice City: 10.87%
No, but I plan to soon: 7.2%
No, I’m not buying either: 31.51%

The first poll says, in a nutshell, that at least 53.8% of GameFAQs users own Vice City. Those who are not interested in the series constitute 31.51% of the vote. There is also a percentage of people who have only played GTA III, so I’ll make the assumption off of that number that those people in general got their fill of the series and decided not to purchase Vice City (a reasonable assumption, considering VC has been out a year). In other words:

Vice City
For it (i.e. those who own it as of 12/18/2003): 53.8%
Against it (i.e. those who don’t own it and probably aren’t planning to as of 12/18/2003): 39%

3/6/2004
Do you plan to buy Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas when it’s released in October?

Yes, and I’m preordering it: 14.97%
Probably, I’ll buy it off the shelf: 34.05%
Maybe, if it gets good reviews: 18.4%
Probably not, I don’t like the series: 7.39%
No, I’m not interested in it: 25.2%

As for the second poll, I believe that it is useful in judging the decline of the popularity of the GTA series over time. Presumably, if people are getting tired of playing games with mindless, senseless violence as their key attractor, then the sales figures on San Andreas will be lower than those for GTA and Vice City.

San Andreas
For it (i.e. those who intend to purchase it whether reviewers like it or not): 49.02%
Against it (i.e. those in the last two categories of the poll): 32.59%
Undecided (will buy if it gets good reviews): 18.4%

What this says to me is that 90+% of people who played Vice City are willing to buy its sequel sight unseen, and most of the remaining 10% will buy it if the reviews are good. Also, strangely enough, the proportion of people not interested in Vice City is higher than those who aren’t interested in San Andreas. I think, therefore, it’s fair to say that any drop in the popularity of the series (an argument many have been using) cannot be proven in fact. It appears that the series is as popular as it was before. This does not necessarily prove that VC is as popular but I think it should be enough for people to evaluate their opinions on the strength of VC in the contest.
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"Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron
Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest

From: creativename | Posted: 3/18/2004 10:54:48 AM | Message Detail

Great work Slowflake! I hope it wasn't too cumbersome. Did you do the data entry manually?

Observations:

First Round:
*Metroid being so heavily favored over Pac-Man doesn't surprise me.
*Pong being so heavily favored over RCR does, though.
*It's interesting to note that Doom vs. Earthbound and Xenogears vs. Pokemon whatever are very close. As is Contra vs. Phantasy Star. These matches have been considered tough to call, and the brackets certainly bear this out.
*Castlevania being a big favorite over Perfect Dark is also fascinating.
*Turns out that Halo is probably a big favorite over StarCraft, as is Link to the Past over Super Metroid, both matches debated heavily on the boards.
*The thing that maybe surprised me the most though was that Kingdom Hearts was basically a unanimous choice over Soul Calibur.

Second Round:
*Goldeneye is not a big favorite over SotN at all.
*Once again, Kingdom Hearts surprises me...almost no one thinks Halo/Starcraft can beat it.
*Unlike LttP vs. Super Metroid, predictions for Wind Waker vs. Metroid Prime do appear to be somewhat divided.
*SSBM is a big favorite over Vice City, just as earlier polls indicated.

Third Round:
*The Wind Waker/Metroid Prime/Kingdom Hearts match-up seems to be the third round matchup that people are having the most difficulty predicting.
*So Final Fantasy X is the clear favorite one on one against SSBM--a different result than the earlier poll might've indicated, where Final Fantasy X had a few less picks than SSBM.

Divisional Finals:
*But, SSBM has almost as many divisional picks as FFX. So actually this isn't too different than the earlier poll after all. This indicates that those people who pick it to win, pick it to go far--which goes along with its "wild card", "risky, but high upside" reputation.
*Chrono Trigger is a clearer favorite than I would've thought.
*Final Fantasy VII is also a pretty big favorite over Ocarina of Time.
*No surprise that the 128 division gets the largest array of predictions.

Semifinals:
*It seems that people believe Chrono Trigger and Final Fantasy VII are indeed on a collision course. And the DDR pick is...amusing.

Finals:
*The usual suspects. I'd expect more support for Chrono Trigger, actually, but these are the 4 games everyone has been talking about since the beginning: Final Fantasy VII, Ocarina of Time, SMB3, and Chrono Trigger. Nothing else seems to have a shot at the championship.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/18/2004 11:04:34 AM | Message Detail

smitelf, I was using that as a sort of counterpoint to creativename bringing up today's KH poll. Which, like the MGS2 poll, doesn't necessarily say how many actually like the game.
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Medieval European Dude #2: It would appear to be a large Mongolian cavalry tearing through our forces like the Church through individual thought and beliefs.

From: smitelf | Posted: 3/18/2004 11:14:59 AM | Message Detail

smitelf, I was using that as a sort of counterpoint to creativename bringing up today's KH poll. Which, like the MGS2 poll, doesn't necessarily say how many actually like the game.

Sorry, I was in a bit of a hurry when I wrote the reply to your post and didn't read the previous page (I have now and realized my error :) I tacked on the Vice City stuff later when I got back...hehe...
---
"Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron
Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest

From: creativename | Posted: 3/18/2004 11:20:38 AM | Message Detail

So yes, it's possible Raiden bit the big one due to SFF (I've been saying so for awhile now)

I certainly agree. According to the extrapolated standings, Raiden was the 8th weakest character in the entire bracket, which seems very unlikely. Increase him by the DK improvement factor and he ends up comparable with KOS-MOS/Yuna/Ramza/Ken...which is probably too high actually, IMO, but still closer to his actual popularity.

pictures actually do matter to voters.

Heh, yeah right ;) They might matter for the wimps though. And Raiden certainly was a wimp against Snake, but that was expected given the circumstances.

Yes, I know, first games don't help their main characters as much as sequels or games featuring them

Actually, I'd say there's decreasing marginal returns for sequels and other games. The largest portion of popularity should normally come from the first game where the character had a major role.

So, yes, KH did help a bit (I've never denied that), but I just don't think as an individual game it was fully responsible for Cloud's dramatic increase.

Not much else makes sense though. We have to go by logic and the evidence.

we have no idea (with certainty) how good Raiden actually is.

Very true. This is actually significant because in going by his performance against Snake, Raiden might not even be in the next one. And while I doubt many will weep for him, he's probably strong enough to be back.

meaning not everyone who bought (in fact, only a small portion of them) were newly exposed to these characters

Well, obviously everyone had heard of Cloud and Sephiroth (and to a much lesser extent, Squall). But that doesn't mean they cared about them. The Kingdom Hearts demographics are clearly significantly different than Final Fantasy demographics; the fanbase overlap is very likely looser than the overlap from one Final Fantasy to the next. These are just hypotheses to explain what we already know, but they're the ones that make the most sense.

smitelf, I was using that as a sort of counterpoint to creativename bringing up today's KH poll. Which, like the MGS2 poll, doesn't necessarily say how many actually like the game.

I was being fecitious with my comment about the poll. "Do you have this game" doesn't necessarily mean that much. We already knew Vice City was one of the best-selling games ever. Though KH's and MGS2's results do appear highly disproportionate to Vice City's, since Vice City sold like three times what KH and MGS2 did in the US.

Still, it's not the sales that leads us to easily conclude the significance of KH factor. It's everything else. Trying to argue against a high level of signficance for KH factor is rather futile. Again, this discussion was put to rest long ago.

Also, the main reason you seem to be arguing for this is because you're trying to FF7 vs. Ocarina of time through the popularities of their characters...but as we just saw, FF7 is a clear favorite anyway. You don't need to de-emphasize KH factor to believe FF7 should beat Ocarina of Time.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 3/18/2004 11:22:07 AM | Message Detail

*The thing that maybe surprised me the most though was that Kingdom Hearts was basically a unanimous choice over Soul Calibur.

*Once again, Kingdom Hearts surprises me...almost no one thinks Halo/Starcraft can beat it.

Really, I'm not all that surprised myself. Afterall, KH is without a doubt the SAFEST pick out of the entire 4-pack. One's an X-box game (granted, it's the most popular, but still...), one's a PC game, & one is a fighter. Honestly, I'd have more confidence in Soul Calibur if their was a '2' at the end. Especially considering how well it did in the 'Best of the Year' polls a couple months ago.

From: creativename | Posted: 3/18/2004 11:25:32 AM | Message Detail

Presumably, if people are getting tired of playing games with mindless, senseless violence as their key attractor, then the sales figures on San Andreas will be lower than those for GTA and Vice City.

People haven't gotten tired of senseless violence for hundreds of millenia, why start now ;-) But I think the sales figures will be lower for San Andreas, if for no other reason than its coming out at a later point in the PS2's life cycle; also, Vice City sold so much in large part because of the goodwill generated by GTA3; I don't think Vice City generated as much goodwill. It'll still sell in the high millions though.

I think, therefore, it’s fair to say that any drop in the popularity of the series (an argument many have been using) cannot be proven in fact.

Good point.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/18/2004 5:25:41 PM | Message Detail

Some more brackets entered today... SMRPG overtook SF2, and as far as the Division 128 is concerned, WW is now second, with 15 for FF10, 10 for WW and 9 for SSBM.

You know what would be cool? If I could just upload the Excel spreadsheet nightly instead of making these super-long posts periodically.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW

From: smitelf | Posted: 3/18/2004 10:29:45 PM | Message Detail

Some more brackets entered today... SMRPG overtook SF2, and as far as the Division 128 is concerned, WW is now second, with 15 for FF10, 10 for WW and 9 for SSBM.

Wow, some sense is coming to the boards at last...though I still say FFX is a lock for the Final Four, where it will then get absolutely trashed by FFVII or OoT.
---
"Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron
Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/18/2004 10:36:42 PM | Message Detail

Is picking Street Fighter 2 to beat Mario RPG an upset? I mean, I just think that far more people have played SF2.
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MIASU!!
My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738

From: smitelf | Posted: 3/18/2004 10:37:50 PM | Message Detail

Is picking Street Fighter 2 to beat Mario RPG an upset? I mean, I just think that far more people have played SF2.

Meh, it's too close to call. On this site, I go for the game with "Mario" and "RPG" in the title.
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"Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron
Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest

From: Sir Chris | Posted: 3/18/2004 10:42:58 PM | Message Detail

Maybe I should take part in this contest discussion.

hmm go chrono trigger!

... and so ends my brief stay in the discussion topic
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"chris is 1337" ~ Tieks
"Christopher is L337" ~ Golden Gloxie

From: cyko | Posted: 3/19/2004 4:39:30 AM | Message Detail

that's not analytic enough, Sir Chris!!

*throws rock at Sir Chris*

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Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now.
A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/19/2004 5:34:49 AM | Message Detail

where it will then get absolutely trashed by FFVII or OoT.

Indeed... up to this point, NO ONE has the winner of Division 128 surviving the semifinals.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW

From: creativename | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:03:26 AM | Message Detail

You know I just saw a topic about Ryu Haybusa in the next Summer contest. I wonder how he would do. I'm guessing that he will be present in the contest, with the popularity of Ninja Gaiden.

My first thought was that he could be somewhere between, say, Alucard and Snake; but then I realized the obvious fact that Ninja Gaiden is an XBox exclusive. Which immediately discounts him to Master Chief. But, he is a NINJA, which is always a plus. And of course the old Ninja Gaiden NES games were very popular. Can't say how much that would help him, but I would think he'd do better than Master Chief. His innate coolness is just higher. I'm actually thinking he'd be around the level of the other Ryu, with Snake again being the upper limit (IIRC, the Ninja Gaiden NES games were much more popular than Metal Gear, but of course there's a momumental difference between the PS/PS2 and XBox)

Kinda off-topic for the Spring contest discussion, but eh...
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: smitelf | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:13:05 AM | Message Detail

Indeed... up to this point, NO ONE has the winner of Division 128 surviving the semifinals.

Yes, sadly none of the games there have a chance. FFX is trumped by FFVII in Division 32/64, Wind Waker is trumped by OoT...so regardless of the outcome of the OoT vs. FFVII match, the winner may as well have a bye to the finals. The only games I see as having a chance in this contest have to come from the SNES days to the PlayStation/N64 days...Division 8 is too old and Division 128 is simply too unimpressive versus the PlayStation/N64 quality of games... Mind you, if it were just me, FFX would beat FFVII...but that's not the way most people see it.
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"Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron
Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:14:24 AM | Message Detail

Simply put, the only game with an outside chance that is NOT from the middle two divisions is SMB3, and I don't see it winning either.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW

From: MyWorldIsStillSquare | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:21:01 AM | Message Detail

Smitelf, you need to get on AIM more often. ^.^

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Official Supporter of Metal Gear Solid in the SP2K4.
First to be slaughtered: Resident Evil

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/19/2004 7:07:35 AM | Message Detail

No way, and I mean NO WAY, Ryu Hayabusa is a top-to-mid-seed. Mid-to-low is more like it, at best.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW

From: charmander6000 | Posted: 3/19/2004 10:06:47 AM | Message Detail

you can add me to the list aswell

1. UltimaterializerX
2. Shake
3. Starion
4. DomaDragoon
5. Ngamer
6. ChichiriMuyo
7. cyko
8. Z1mzum
9. Haste2
10. Neoatomtaco
11. Heroic Mario
12. i am vishnu 2
13. Yesmar
14. solarshadow
15. StopPokingMe
16. charmander6000
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My site for the games contest http://www.freewebs.com/spring_game_contest/

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/19/2004 1:54:47 PM | Message Detail

Think it'd be interesting to post there as well...

I've uploaded the current results for the BOP and they will be updated nightly.

www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls

Some other stuff will probably be added on that file when we get to the contest.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW

From: creativename | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:34:11 PM | Message Detail

Thanks for putting the file up Slowflake.

Using your file, I calculated the proportion of total points available for each game. For instance, the original Final Fantasy had 46 picks to win its 1st round match; 45 picks to win its 2nd; 4 to win a 3rd round match; and 2 to win in the division finals. Its point total was thus 46*1+45*2+4*4+2*8=168. There were 9,018 points available (some matches only had 46 picks I think, otherwise there would be 47*192=9,024 points), which means Final Fantasy had 1.863% of all available points. The file can be found at:

http://home.nyc.rr.com/saqib/GameFAQs/Slowflake_spring2k4_odds.xls

The results using CJayC's scoring system (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 points per round) are:

1 || Final Fantasy 7 || 20.9%
2 || Chrono Trigger || 13.2%
3 || Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time || 12.7%
4 || Super Mario Bros. 3 || 10.4%
5 || Final Fantasy 10 || 4.3%
6 || Legend of Zelda || 4.2%
7 || Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past || 3.2%
8 || Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker || 3.1%
9 || Super Smash Bros. Melee || 2.8%
10 || Final Fantasy 6 || 2.3%
11 || Tetris || 2.1%
12 || Metroid Prime || 2%
13 || Final Fantasy || 1.9%
14 || Kingdom Hearts || 1.8%
15 || Super Mario World || 1.6%
16 || Metal Gear Solid || 1.3%
17 || Goldeneye || 1.1%
18 || Super Metroid || 0.9%
19 || Castlevania: Symphony of the Night || 0.8%
20 || Grand Theft Auto: Vice City || 0.8%
21 || Dance Dance Revolution || 0.7%
22 || Final Fantasy Tactics || 0.7%
23 || Sonic the Hedgehog 2 || 0.7%
24 || Super Mario 64 || 0.6%
25 || Final Fantasy Tactics Advance || 0.5%
26 || Metroid || 0.5%
27 || Halo: Combat Evolved || 0.5%
28 || Starcraft || 0.5%
29 || Pong || 0.5%
30 || Donkey Kong || 0.4%
31 || Contra || 0.3%
32 || Xenogears || 0.3%
33 || Doom || 0.3%
34 || Super Mario RPG || 0.3%
35 || Earthbound || 0.3%
36 || Phantasy Star || 0.2%
37 || Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic || 0.2%
38 || Street Fighter 2 || 0.2%
39 || Pokémon Gold/Silver/Crystal || 0.2%
40 || Duck Hunt || 0.2%
41 || Perfect Dark || 0.2%
42 || River City Ransom || 0.1%
43 || Half-Life || 0.1%
44 || Metal Gear Solid 2 || 0.1%
45 || Pac-Man || 0%
46 || Pitfall || 0%
47 || Secret of Mana || 0%
48 || Soul Calibur || 0%
49 || Fire Emblem || 0%
50 || NiGHTS Into Dreams || 0%
---
Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: creativename | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:37:55 PM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: creativename | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:43:16 PM | Message Detail

Using a different scoring system obviously alters the results drastically.

The results below are using an x^x scoring system; that is, a victory in round 1 is worth 1 point, a round 2 victory is worth 4 points, 27 points for round 3, 256 for round 4, 3,125 for round 5, and 46,656 for round 6. This means games without later round victories get only infinitesimal proportions of the vote totals. The Top 12 games, in terms of their proportion of total points, are:

1 || Final Fantasy 7 || 53.3%
2 || Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time || 26.1%
3 || Super Mario Bros. 3 || 9.3%
4 || Chrono Trigger || 7.8%
5 || Dance Dance Revolution || 2%
6 || Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past || 0.3%
7 || Legend of Zelda || 0.3%
8 || Final Fantasy 10 || 0.2%
9 || Tetris || 0.1%
10 || Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker || 0.1%
11 || Super Smash Bros. Melee || 0.1%
12 || Metroid Prime || 0.1%
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: torey luvullo | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:45:01 PM | Message Detail

nice numbers, creativename.

From: torey luvullo | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:48:54 PM | Message Detail

heh - i dont even have a sig now... might as well make my first one something to do with this contest:

1. UltimaterializerX
2. Shake
3. Starion
4. DomaDragoon
5. Ngamer
6. ChichiriMuyo
7. cyko
8. Z1mzum
9. Haste2
10. Neoatomtaco
11. Heroic Mario
12. i am vishnu 2
13. Yesmar
14. solarshadow
15. StopPokingMe
16. charmander6000
17. torey luvullo

From: creativename | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:51:35 PM | Message Detail

Now this is solely in my own opinion, but I think the results that are the best proxy for actual odds of winning the contest are based on a 4^x scoring system, where x is the round number (whereas CJayC's system is a 2^x system).

The top 20 are:

1 || Final Fantasy 7 || 40%
2 || Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time || 20.8%
3 || Chrono Trigger || 14.1%
4 || Super Mario Bros. 3 || 11.2%
5 || Final Fantasy 10 || 1.8%
6 || Legend of Zelda || 1.7%
7 || Dance Dance Revolution || 1.4%
8 || Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past || 1.4%
9 || Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker || 1.3%
10 || Super Smash Bros. Melee || 1.1%
11 || Metroid Prime || 0.7%
12 || Tetris || 0.7%
13 || Final Fantasy 6 || 0.5%
14 || Final Fantasy || 0.4%
15 || Kingdom Hearts || 0.4%
16 || Super Mario World || 0.3%
17 || Super Metroid || 0.2%
18 || Metal Gear Solid || 0.2%
19 || Goldeneye || 0.2%
20 || Grand Theft Auto: Vice City || 0.2%

I really think people are underestimating Chrono Trigger's chances of winning. Kurono Toriga would probably by my "Game Theory Darling" pick ;-) I'd say Final Fantasy VII was also overfavored compared to Ocarina of Time.

It should be interesting to compare the standings based on these bracket predictions with the extrapolated standings after the contest is over.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: creativename | Posted: 3/19/2004 6:53:22 PM | Message Detail

nice numbers, creativename.

Thanks :) But of course Slowflake already did all the work. ^_^
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: creativename | Posted: 3/19/2004 7:21:37 PM | Message Detail

but I think the results that are the best proxy for actual odds of winning

I mean "bracket-derived odds", not actual odds. And DDR's position is skewed by that one nut who picked it to win it all. <rolls eyes>

BTW Slowflake, I've seen you toss around the occasional wrestling references. Do you still watch? Because I've been thinking of watching again. I mean, Chris Benoit and Eddie Guerrero champions at the same time!?!? That's a dream come true. Even though they still won't get the pushes they deserve--what kind of chumps don't even push their own champs right?--but things certainly seem to have improved. I stopped watching just after Mania 19 because I completely lost all hope for this company ever getting back on track.

This is the classic case of the grossly mis-managed company...very ripe for a hostile takeover. Too bad no one on Wall Street would ever think that way about a wrestling company (and I think the company charter gives the McMahons disproportionate voting rights).

But anyway, if you've been watching at all, how has it been? Has it gotten any better? Has the ubiquitous Hoss-pushing been toned down? I'm very leery of starting to watch again, because its like an addiction...and being a wrestling fan is actually a very time-consuming thing. But while Mania XX was reportedly not so great overall, I missed what would've been one of my all-time biggest mark-out moments with everything that happened at the end. I feel very sad about that.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/19/2004 7:38:40 PM | Message Detail

Whoa, that's a hard question. But if you prefer Jericho, Christian, Orton, Cena, Guerrero and Benoit getting pushes in contrast to Test, Steiner, Nashhole, Lesnar (nice knowing you), Nathan Jones (you won't be MOOOOOssed) and friends, then you might consider that. Of course, you just can't remove HHH sadly, but c'est la vie.

And thanks for the numbers, brother. I have no idea of how you do that... hopefully you'll update these when I do, too.

Would it be possible to do an odds list like CJayC did in 2002 based on that, you think?
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SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW

From: creativename | Posted: 3/19/2004 8:10:59 PM | Message Detail

I liked Lesnar, but probably wouldn't miss him overly. I'd say the over/under on him coming back is about 2 years...maybe 4 on the high end; but at least now you have more room for guys like Eddie and Cena. And I hear Goldberg's gone too, which can only be a good thing. The reason I stopped watching in the first place was that a Jericho vs. Goldberg feud was just starting, and I had no desire whatsoever to see Jericho (my favorite wrestler) jobbed out to that jackass. Though that was just the last straw...HHH was of course the main reason for my diminishing lack of interest in wrestling. That man is just very destructive to the business and has cost this corporation many tens of millions of dollars.

And Nash is still around? I completely forgot about that guy. Which is even odder since I just remembered I heard his name earlier today, yet it still didn't register. (what's the "moose" reference with Nathan Jones by the way?)

Seeing Benoit and Guerrero pushed is just amazing...I literally never would've believed that Guerrero would ever be world champ. And Benoit winning is sweet too, even if it was just the HHH belt. I feel like this is some sort of Bizarro world, where the two best, most talented wrestlers are actually the champs.

As for the numbers, it's very easy using Pivot Tables. Go to Data-->PivotTable and PivotChart. Then highlight the data (it has to be under named columns). Then you can group the data together by column heading (e.g., "Game title", where there is a column of game titles) and choose a value to display (e.g., "Sum of Points", where the points are in another column). A Pivot Table will appear with grouped values by name (for instance, summing up all the point values of Final Fantasy VII). It's sort of like queries in a database, except with numerical functions (e.g. count, sum, average, etc.) built in.

I can definitely update this when you do, because all I have to do is copy and paste your data ;) Not exactly time consuming stuff.

Would it be possible to do an odds list like CJayC did in 2002 based on that, you think?

If we knew what formula he used. I'm guessing--with nothing to back it up--that he used something like what I did with his scoring system. So FF7 would have about 5:1 odds, Chrono Trigger about 15:2, and so on. If that's not what he did then I have no idea.
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:04:49 AM | Message Detail

That was not "moose", that was "MOOOOOOO". Apparently the guy once took so much 'roids he started lactating.

Oh, so that's what pivot tables are for. Never, ever had to use them.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW

From: cyko | Posted: 3/20/2004 6:46:58 AM | Message Detail

quick thought - i gotta say, these recent polls keep raising doubts with the predictions. check out today's:

Poll of the Day

What system did you most recently play a game on?

GameBoy Advance 9.42% 1422
GameCube 19.17% 2895
PC 25.13% 3795
PlayStation2 29.77% 4496
Xbox 12.3% 1857
Other 4.22% 638
TOTAL VOTES 15103

suddenly, the PC doesn't seem so underappreciated anymore. it's second only to the PS2 by 4.64%. and the PC has over TWICE as many votes as the X-Box. does this mean that PC games will get more support than we previously thought? i'm not ready to rearrange my bracket or anything, but this poll raises one of my eyebrows to the chances of Starcraft, Doom, and maybe even Half-Life...........

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Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now.
A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12

From: charmander6000 | Posted: 3/20/2004 6:51:00 AM | Message Detail

cyko, but don't forget that were on the computer and people are most likly to play on a PC then go to Gamefaqs. If the question was Which game system do you think is the best then I can tell you that PC will be alot lower. Also Doom will beat Earthbound
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LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC
My site for the games contest http://www.freewebs.com/spring_game_contest/

From: smitelf | Posted: 3/20/2004 9:21:50 AM | Message Detail

suddenly, the PC doesn't seem so underappreciated anymore. it's second only to the PS2 by 4.64%. and the PC has over TWICE as many votes as the X-Box.

That doesn't mean they're playing *retail* games on the PC, though. People were probably referring to playing minesweeper or something, not games like Starcraft.
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"Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron
Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/20/2004 9:33:12 AM | Message Detail

I remember when minesweeper was a retail game...
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Medieval European Dude #2: It would appear to be a large Mongolian cavalry tearing through our forces like the Church through individual thought and beliefs.

From: ShookUpTheWorId | Posted: 3/20/2004 9:46:27 AM | Message Detail

^^He's ancient.

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I need a sig. ;.;

From: creativename | Posted: 3/20/2004 9:49:21 AM | Message Detail

That doesn't mean they're playing *retail* games on the PC, though. People were probably referring to playing minesweeper or something, not games like Starcraft.

Yes exactly.

And when the hell was minesweeper retail?? I see that it has a bunch of boards on here...wait a minute...Minesweeper was an arcade game?!?!!!??! And what's the Turbo CD...was that an accessory for the TurboGrafx or something? (I actually had/have a TurboGrafx...haven't touched it for many years...not sure where it is actually)
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: creativename | Posted: 3/20/2004 9:59:16 AM | Message Detail

I need a sig. ;.;

Is ;.; supposed to be a guy crying, an oriental guy with a mustache, or something else?

(actually, what it reminds me of is the Orz from Star Control 2)
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Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4!

From: ShookUpTheWorId | Posted: 3/20/2004 10:01:58 AM | Message Detail

Whenever Luigi takes away Mario's spicey meatballs, he looks like that.

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I need a sig. ;.;

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 10:07:52 AM | Message Detail

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/20/2004 10:10:22 AM | Message Detail

It was long ago that minesweeper was retail. I owned it for TI-99, a computer long ago made by Texas Instruments and not even listed here on game faqs (guess it gets thrown in with PC). I also had games like Space Invaders. The TI-99 had the option to add a floppy drive or a cart drive as expansions, though I only had the cart drive so I sadly *cries* couldn't program games. Sucks too, because I had sheets that had entire games as they would appear in code. Games like snake, which if I recall correctly was one of the games I had the code for, were only a page or two when written out!
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Medieval European Dude #2: It would appear to be a large Mongolian cavalry tearing through our forces like the Church through individual thought and beliefs.

From: smitelf | Posted: 3/20/2004 12:38:56 PM | Message Detail

I think this just shows the console/PC split under a different angle. Most of the PC gamers will have played one of their games last, but the console gamers are split between PS2, X-Box, GameCube, GBA, and whatnot. I blame SFF.

No no no...I'm quite sure that if it were only retail PC games being counted that the number would be less than the X-Box on this site. I'm not the only one who plays Minesweeper while waiting for a page to load...am I? And there are tons of little flash games to play to stave off boredom, too.
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"Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron
Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest

From: cronus striker | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:25:32 PM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:27:12 PM | Message Detail

Lesnar's not hurt, he's gone to try out for the NFL.

And you harrassing me from topic to topic only reinforces my decision and cements your position as the resident troll of the week.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW

From: cronus striker | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:28:25 PM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:30:34 PM | Message Detail

You're dreaming if you think I'm going to do that.

Besides, if calling someone a troll was moddable, 90% of MBH would be gone by now.
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SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW

From: cronus striker | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:31:19 PM | Message Detail

Do you know how many people have been banned on MBH?
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Officially supporting Chrono Trigger in the Spring Contest. I`m sure the user name makes it obvious enough.

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