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| Spring 2004 Contest |
| Pre-Season Spring 2004 Contest Discussion - Part 2 |
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| From: Starion | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:26:25 AM | Message Detail |
| This one has about the same data for some of the games listed by ChichiriMuyo so I assume it to be accurate. http://www5e.biglobe.ne.jp/~hokora/ps2rank.html Just click on the bottom to look at the Gamecube and Xbox charts. --- Spring Contest 2004 - ????? VS. ????? Points - 0/192 |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:26:39 AM | Message Detail |
| Edit: Xbox WAS gettign outsold 3 to 1 by the PSOne. Not is, but was. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:31:50 AM | Message Detail |
| Thanks
for the link, Starion. It doesn't have any of the older systems but it
is nice info since it has US and Japanese sales side by side. SC2 sold
half a million copies for the GC in the US but couldn't even top
100,000 in Japan on te GC. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:49:48 AM | Message Detail |
| I also favor Ulti's idea...would love to see my score sigged all over this board! :) --- Trivia XII: Neo Diehards...SC2K4: Match 1: Go SMB3! "A real gamer...standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years!" |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/13/2004 10:05:38 AM | Message Detail |
| But
among the many possibilities for evaluating this, that is the only way
I was able to come up with Link 2003 being less popular than Link 2002:
every other way I tried, he was more popular; in some cases much more
so. Quite a few months ago we came to find that the average "strength" of all the characters was weaker in 2003 than in 2002, which is what makes the 2003 Link appear stronger. However, we came to find that the 2002 North-and-East division characters looked roughly the same as they did in 2003 by their numbers, while the 2002 South-and-West division characters appeared quite a bit more popular that year than when they re-appeared in 2003. This basically led people to believe that Sephiroth actually overperformed against Link against 2002. I'm certainly open to that, but I'm still sticking with the idea that Mario underperformed against Link, and that Link did increase in popularity. :p So...anybody going for some big upsets in the later rounds just for the heck of it? I really only have one, which is Metroid Prime taking the 128-bit division...meh, it seems that only GC games. And I do believe that the "Zelda > Metroid all the time" is definitely not true... For other divisions, I have FF7 winning the tourney, and I think SMB3 is unstoppable in the NES division...I could also pick Zelda: LttP over Chrono Trigger for the SNES division, but lots of brackets would have it reaching the Final 4, anway. Super Metroid may have a small chance, but...urgh. Any ideas on big upsets outside of the 128-bit division? --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: dethwing | Posted: 3/13/2004 10:37:32 AM | Message Detail |
| I'm sill sticking with my VC over SSBM upset. I'm also begnning to reconisder WW vs MP. Such a hard match... --- Basic Instructions Before Leaving Earth--Burlap to Cashmere Spring 2004 Final 4: Mario 3, CT, FF7, FFX |
| From: cyko | Posted: 3/13/2004 11:28:43 AM | Message Detail |
Every one of NIntendo's million sellers in the US. Of course being a million seller isn't bad, but being outsold by Majora's Mask? That's questionable. nice sales number research, Chchiri. ^_^ unfortunately they can't be completely relied upon to choose the winner. why? here's why: N64 Nintendo Pokemon Snap 1.91 . . . N64 Nintendo Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 1.63 . GC Nintendo Super Smash Bros. Melee 1.60 . . . GC Nintendo Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker 1.40 . . . . GC Nintendo Metroid Prime 1.06 okay. so maybe Majora's Mask outsold Prime and Wind Waker. but so did Pokemon Crap....er, i mean Snap. don't get me wrong, i loved Pokemon Red/Blue and Gold/Silver; but Pokemon Snap was big steaming turd of a game. and yet, it has sold almost twice as many copies as Metroid Prime. does that mean it wouls beat Prime? not in this reality, it wouldn't. so, sales figures can't always be trusted, but i guess they do play a small factor in how many people have actually played the game. but come on, two million copies of Pokemon Snap? yeesh. --- Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now. A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12 |
| From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 3/13/2004 11:42:36 AM | Message Detail |
| well, I thought it was fun... I mean, granted, it wasn't the most advanced game in the whole world, but it was a nice thought. I thought it was really fun, I think I may have even replayed it this year. And about WW not selling more than Majora's Mask, well, big deal? I mean Majora's Mask is considered to be a pretty good, if not very good game right? --- Was nokia trying to prove that something can be made worse than x-box? ~Darkbaconslayer on N-Gage |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 12:11:04 PM | Message Detail |
| Stop
with the Pokemon references already. We know it was a HUGE fad and that
it's died down. Fads have this tendancy to make everything related to
them sell really well. Zelda has never been a fad and so comparing it
from one game to the next is much more valid, and being in the same
series only helps that. MM was a good game, I suppose, but even people
who loved OoT often don't like MM and WW still hasn't outsold it, and
may never do so. That just makes me question if WW really has the
strength of LoZ behind it... and I can say without much doubt that it
doesn't have 100%. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/13/2004 8:29:26 PM | Message Detail |
| About
those sales figures: they're mostly because the GameCube wasn't nearly
as successful as the N64. The relative market saturations of Wind Waker
and Ocarina of Time to their respective consoles wouldn't be nearly as
different as their actual sales figures. We kow the GameCube is very
strong at this site though. Wind Waker didn't sell that much less than
SSBM and Sunshine, and somewhat significantly more than Prime. Not that
sales necessarily means that much, but Wind Waker's sales numbers don't
look so poor when you factor in the GC's strength at this site. Also, the Pokemon games are for portable systems and cost less. So to compare revenues, you'd have to multiply their totals by .6 or something in order to find how much the people were willing to invest in them. Total money spent on a game is probably a better indicator of fanbase than units sold (though maybe not). --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/13/2004 8:39:51 PM | Message Detail |
| Stop with the Pokemon references already. We know it was a HUGE fad and that it's died down. Yes, it has died down, but has it died down to the extent that Pokemon itself isn't a formidable contender? I think not. It wouldn't be on the bracket if it was a complete joke. More importantly, did people leave the fad with a hatred for the brand? I didn't. I had fun with Pokemon a few years back. It was a great game. I don't play it any more but I'll vote for it in remembrance of the enjoyment I got out of it. I don't think I'm the only one. Don't dismiss Pokemon so easily...it'll beat Xenogears, anyway. That's as far as it'll go, I expect, but still. --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/13/2004 8:42:05 PM | Message Detail |
| Quite
a few months ago we came to find that the average "strength" of all the
characters was weaker in 2003 than in 2002, which is what makes the
2003 Link appear stronger The average character in 2002 was .264x Link '02; the average character in 2003 was .334x Link '03. Replace Cloud, Sephiroth, Aeris, and Squall's 2003 ratios with their 2002 ratios, and the average strength is still .32x Link '03. Given that there were a lot less patsies in 2003 vs. 2002, this makes sense. (for instance, Kane, Terry Bogard, Guybrush Threepwood, Serious Sam, Ms. Pac-Man, Dirk the Daring, and Mr. Driller each had lower Link ratios than anyone in 2003) However, we came to find that the 2002 North-and-East division characters looked roughly the same as they did in 2003 by their numbers, while the 2002 South-and-West division characters appeared quite a bit more popular that year than when they re-appeared in 2003. Here's the average improvement in "Link ratio" for each division, respective that that year's Link: 2002: North: 1.297 East: 1.18 South: 0.899 West: 0.96 For 2003 divisions as compared to 2002: North: 0.989 East: 1.106 South: 1.146 West: 1.08 People originally suspected that Mario was underrated by his 2002 performance against Link (thereby underrating Crono and everyone in their divisions as well), which would explain for the big jumps by 2002 North and East characters. This also makes sense in the sense that in the 2002 standings, Mega, Samus, and Sonic were each significantly ahead of Mario and Crono; there were reasons to doubt the validity of this. In 2003 Mega Man and Samus were virtually the same as Mario, and Sonic was signficantly lower (though since linearity breaks down at extremes, and Sonic's value is based off of the Cloud vs. Sonic blowout, the numbers might not be entirely accurate). These made more sense and lended support to the hypothesis that Mario suffered from SFF in the 2002 final. But, of course, there's a large number of reasons to doubt that as well, so it isn't clear-cut. Anyway, all this stuff aside...ALL the evidence points to Link being as strong in 2003 as in 2002. The only reason to believe Link was weaker in 2003 is the fact that he didn't win, but obviously, that is easily explained. This basically led people to believe that Sephiroth actually overperformed against Link against 2002 Not really; there's reason to believe Mario underperformed (trickling down to everyone in the North and East division), but not much to believe Sephiroth overperformed. The main reason to believe this would be that Sephiroth didn't increase as much as Cloud and Squall did. That makes sense though, since he was just an optional boss in KH; Cloud and Squall were more important characters. Aeris didn't improve that much relative to them, either. I see nothing odd here. certainly open to that, but I'm still sticking with the idea that Mario underperformed against Link, and that Link did increase in popularity. :p Mario's Link ratio in 2002 was .599x; in 2003 it was .616, virtually no change. The most obvious conclusion is that both characters' popularities were essentially the same both years, and that SFF didn't play much of a role in the 2002 final (the latter makes sense given all we know about the lack of SFF in heavyweight-vs.-heavyweight matches). The other explanations are that Mario was hurt by SFF in 2002, and his popularity declined in 2003; or that Mario was hurt by SFF in 2002 and Link's popularity increased in 2003. The latter makes more sense than the former, true. But neither really fits with all the other evidence we have. So while Mario's popularity remaining constant makes a lot of sense it is mildly in doubt; yet everything points to Link's popularity not changing much across years (or at least, not decreasing). --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/13/2004 11:12:36 PM | Message Detail |
| You
are totally missing the point...when I was talking about character
averages, I was talking about the ones that occured in both contests.
Or at least I meant to say that. In terms of organizing by 2002 divisions, here are the relative strengths of the characters that have appeared both years going from the 2003 Cloud, AND assuming Link 2002 = Link 2003. Let's exclude any FFVII, FFVIII, or FFX characters because of the supposed Kingdom Hearts Factor. Oh, and it's using my system, because that's the only info I have...I don't want to spend a year with this slow computer trying to find your rankings...they're close enough. North: 13 || Mario '02 -- 36.26% 10 || Mario '03 -- 36.95% 63 || Alucard '02 -- 21.97% 37 || Alucard '03 -- 26.67% 68 || Miles “Tails” Prower ‘02 -- 20.07% 69 || Miles “Tails” Prower ‘03 -- 19.76% 82 || Duke Nukem ‘02 -- 16.91% 76 || Duke Nukem ‘03 -- 17.86% 74 || Fox McCloud ‘02 -- 18.38% 81 || Fox McCloud ‘03 -- 16.97% 94 || Pikachu ‘02 -- 14.83% 114 || Pikachu ‘03 -- 10.64% 102 || Donkey Kong ‘02 -- 13.07% 46 || Donkey Kong '03 -- 24.52% East: 14 || Crono '02 -- 36.22% 11 || Crono '03 -- 36.91% 17 || Solid Snake '02 -- 34.09% 16 || Solid Snake '03 -- 34.74% 36 || Knuckles the Echidna '02 -- 26.79% 40 || Knuckles the Echidna '03 -- 25.63% 48 || Dante '02 -- 24.21% 35 || Dante '03 -- 27.31% 66 || Lara Croft ‘02 -- 21.10% 61 || Lara Croft '03 -- 22.11% 80 || Ryo Hazuki ‘02 -- 17.14% 109 || Ryo Hazuki ‘03 -- 12.21% 113 || Gordon Freeman ‘02 -- 10.79% 89 || Gordon Freeman ‘03 -- 15.35% South - the trend here is more detabable, but still *tends* to support their decline from 2002 to 2003. 38 || Jill Valentine '02 -- 26.49% 45 || Jill Valentine '03 -- 24.56% 44 || Kirby '02 -- 24.72% 41 || Kirby '03 -- 25.49% 55 || Scorpion '02 -- 23.25% 50 || Scorpion '03 -- 23.94% 58 || Bomberman '02 -- 22.27% 71 || Bomberman ‘03 -- 18.96% 70 || Pac-Man ‘02 -- 19.65% 90 || Pac-Man ‘03 -- 15.27% 59 || Raziel '02 -- 22.25% 78 || Raziel ‘03 -- 17.32% West: 6 || Mega Man '02 -- 41.53% 9 || Mega Man '03 -- 37.35% 7 || Samus Aran '02 -- 39.74% 12 || Samus Aran '03 -- 36.72% 8 || Sonic the Hedgehog '02 -- 39.72% 19 || Sonic the Hedgehog '03 -- 33.79% 24 || Tidus '02 -- 32.71% 23 || Tidus '03 -- 33.14% 21 || Ryu '02 -- 33.50% 29 || Ryu '03 -- 29.69% ?4 || Ken Masters '02 -- 27.57% 67 || Ken Masters ‘03 -- 21.01% 88 || Crash Bandicoot ‘02 -- 15.51% 83 || Crash Bandicoot ‘03 -- 16.89% 86 || Max Payne ‘02 -- 16.10% 85 || Max Payne ‘03 -- 16.68% 103 || CATS ‘02 -- 12.87% 101 || CATS ‘03 -- 13.09% --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/14/2004 1:10:49 AM | Message Detail |
| Alright,
if I`m not the only one up for this, I propose a little idea among us.
But please, only sign up for this is you`re willing to follow the honor
system. The rules are simple. We all sign up to a list. Whoever sees
the highest score on their bracket gets to be in the sigs of everyone
else on the list, in the form of *__________ is my God!* Come on, what do you say? 1. UltimaterializerX Just get a list copy-pasted, and off we go. But I`m serious about the honor system on this. If the winner in the final match gets 82613 votes, and someone actually claims this as their tiebreaker, they`re getting smacked. As for why I`m willing to take part in something like this, my sig has gotten boring. I wouldn`t mind boosting someone else`s ego when I change my sig in the least. So what do you guys say? A nice fun little contest between friends, no? --- MIASU!! My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: Starion | Posted: 3/14/2004 1:14:21 AM | Message Detail |
| You're on Ulti! Fear my decidedly average predicting abilities. *Signs* --- Spring Contest 2004 - ????? VS. ????? Points - 0/192 |
| From: Terran | Posted: 3/14/2004 1:16:00 AM | Message Detail |
| Not
predicting the finals...but I think it's going to be boring again.
Mario vs. Link was the first, Cloud vs. Sephiroth the second. I imagine
this one will be Ninento vs. Ninento or FF vs. FF. So I bet the best
will come prematurely again, the Semi-Finals at the latest. I don't know why, I just feel that's a trend that's going to contiune, and one I want to bet my bracket on... --- Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony! |
| From: masteremerald 2 | Posted: 3/14/2004 3:25:03 AM | Message Detail |
1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake Alrighty. I trust everyone in the stats topic here. I'm up for this. I'll probably just tell the day before a match which horse I bet on, for the fun of discussing. ^_~ --- Shake is warned |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/14/2004 3:36:14 AM | Message Detail |
| Just a word. The tendency of going down in the South is practically impossible to observe. Here's why: Jill: the percentages fall in the usual 2% of margin of error (see Snake/Knuckles). Whereas the West front-runners, save Seph (and Tidus, because of KH) mostly lost 4-5 points, and even more for Sonic and Ken. Kirby: Improved. Scorpion: Improved. Bomberman: Proof that this massive loss of ground has nothing to do with Mario/Link? He and Kirby were in the same 4-pack with a common opponent BOTH YEARS. Now, he was 2 points behind Kirby in 2002 and more than 10 in 2003. So he didn't only lose ground to Link, Mario, etc. he lost ground to KIRBY, a far more reliable reference. Pac-Man: Kefka's following match was a big SFF match, and we know it. Without SFF, Kefka could've broken 25%... he didn't even get 21. Raziel: That's a major question mark. Both years there was only one intermediate between him and the champion (Strider, Sephiroth)... could comparing a 50-50 match with an 80-20 one be the cause? Doubtful. I still wonder how I predicted this one to the hundredth, since it went against all numbers in 2002. So in short, only Raziel, a jobber, is an indicator of something fishy in the South. Whereas in the West, you have Sonic, Samus, Ryu, Ken, and Megaman who all lost ground, and big time (Tidus and Sephiroth were left out for obvious reasons). The reason why Samus didn't lose quite as much? Look in Division 128... it's there. And speaking of 2002... losing 58-42 to Sonic, then almost beating Ganondorf and Magus warrants an improvement of much more than the puny 2% improvement he got. Which leads me to believe, once more, that the problem does NOT come from the upper half of the 2002 bracket, since we're comparing Tidus to Link here. And since even Samus, division finalist in the West, took a bad dive, that only leaves one match possible. Link vs. Sephiroth. Thank you. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/14/2004 3:49:08 AM | Message Detail |
| You
are totally missing the point...when I was talking about character
averages, I was talking about the ones that occured in both contests.
Or at least I meant to say that. Yes...so was I. The average character from the 2002 North division, who also appeared in 2003, increased in extrapolated popularity by 29.7% (geometrically speaking). The average repeat character in the 2002 South declined by roughly 10%, and so on. I was merely providing evidence for your statement regarding the divisions. I was backing you up, dude...no need to get all "totally missing the point" on me ;-) However, what I posted indicates that rather than N and E characters appearing the same and S and W characters appearing weaker--as you said--it's that S and W character declined somewhat but N and E characters had big jumps in popularity. But if we're talking about relative strengths about characters from these divisions, the idea is the same as what you said. And I have to completely disagree with the idea that the 2003 characters were on the whole weaker than the 2002 ones; the evidence is overwhelmingly strong that it is the other way around. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/14/2004 4:43:10 AM | Message Detail |
| he lost ground to KIRBY, a far more reliable reference Hmmm...I don't know about that. The heavyweights are, for the most part, far more reliable than the non-heavyweights. Even though Kirby's popularity only changed 13%, I don't know how reliable he is with respect to predicting other matches based on his matches. Probably pretty reliable, but not as much as Link or Mario. This modeling system relies on transitivity and linearity assumptions, and it is very accurate for heavweights and when utilizing the results of somewhat contested matches; but both assumpations break down when dealing with non-heavyweights and complete blowouts. Hypothetically speaking, if character "Pwnzor" beats character "Chump1" by a little and character "Monster" beats character "Chump2" by a little, but character "Chump1" beat "Chump2" the previous year with 65% of the vote, then we can safely say that "Monster" will beat "Pwnzor" by about 65%, give or take not that much. But if "Chump1" beat "Chump2" with 90%, we know that "Monster" will win, but he could win with anything from, for instance, 75% on up against "Pwnzor". Also, another example: if "Monster" beat "Chump1" last year with 92.5% of the vote, "Pwnzor" beat "Chump2" with 90%, and earlier this year "Chump1" and "Chump2" split their vote equally, we don't really know who will win between "Monster" and "Pwnzor". The model would imply that since Chump1=Chump1, Monster=12.33x Chump1 and Pwnzor=9x Chump2, "Monster" would beat "Pwnzor" with about 57.8% of the vote. Clearly we'd have no confidence in this prediction though; there's just not much difference between 92.5% and 90%. At extremes like that, linearity cannot be relied on. Now I know that my examples here wasn't really all that great, but the point is: it's difficult to extrapolating result that are useful for prognostication based on matches involving lightweights. The real pansies tend to fluctuate in popularity a lot. The middleweights less so, and the heavyweights much less. Here's a graph of how much the characters who were in both contests improved (or declined) from 2002 to 2003, based on Link'03=Link'02: http://home.nyc.rr.com/saqib/GameFAQs/improvement_chart.gif The x-axis is the characters' 2002 Link ratios, and the y-axis is how much they improved. As you can see, characters with very low ratios tended to change in popularity heavily. However, characters who had a Link ratio of .4 or above--that is, if you were expected to get roughly 30% or more against Link in SC2K2--didn't change in popularity that much, with the major exceptions of Cloud (whose popularity increased a whopping 79%) and Sephiroth (who improved 29%). Actually, Jill Valentine appears to be somewhat of a cut-off. She had a Link ratio of .377 in 2002, and declined by 22.3% in 2003. Ken, right below her, declined by 32.8%, a much larger net change. Characters above Jill improved or declined by no more than 21% (except for Cloud and Sephiroth). Characters below Jill improved by as much as 132% (Donkey Kong) and declined by as much as 41% (Ryo Hazuki). --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/14/2004 5:00:46 AM | Message Detail |
| The
poll of the day is very interesting. "Which of the number one seeds in
the Spring Contest do you think has the best chance of winning?" The
current results are: Chrono Trigger: 17.5% Final Fantasy VII: 51.05% Halo: Combat Evolved: 11.42% Super Mario Bros. 3: 11.96% None of the top seeds can win: 8.07% FF7 is clearly a massive favorite among the #1 seeds. Doesn't necessarily mean it's a massive favorite against Ocarina of Time, but it probably is. And since we can probably assume that FF7 vs. Ocarina of time is tough to call, then if you're making a bracket to win, you should put Ocarina of Time. And since Chrono Trigger vs. FF7 appears to be the favored Finals matchup, if you have that match in your final, think it's a close match (which I believe it is) and are bracketing to win, you should put Kurono Toriga. BTW...there's obviously something wrong when Halo gets as many votes as SMB3 in a "who is the favorite" poll. In a competitive poll, SMB3 would destroy Halo completely. And SMB3 actually does have a real shot at winning this tourney; Halo obviously has no shot whatsoever to even make its division final. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: swordsman 12 | Posted: 3/14/2004 6:43:25 AM | Message Detail |
| I think Super Metroid has a chance of beating Chrono Trigger. Does anyone else agree? --- How To Catch A Bear-1.Dig a big hole. 2.Fill the hole with ash. 3.Put raw meat in the hole.4.When the bear bends over, kick it in the ash hole. |
| From: nifboy | Posted: 3/14/2004 8:34:41 AM | Message Detail |
| Well, let's compare today's poll with SC'03 numbers. "Which of the #1 seeds in the Summer Contest do you think has the best chance of winning?" Cloud: 26.77% Link: 44.24% Mario: 11.51% Solid Snake: 17.48% And we all know what happened back then. It seems people think CT has less of a chance than I think it does. --- "We seek as much data - raw facts, direct experience - as we can, and then we make up our own minds." - J. Moore |
| From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 3/14/2004 8:45:58 AM | Message Detail |
| Current Results: Chrono Trigger 16.1% 3638 Final Fantasy VII 49.52% 11193 Halo: Combat Evolved 13.59% 3072 Super Mario Bros. 3 12.76% 2885 None of the top seeds can win 8.03% 1814 TOTAL VOTES 22602 Let's be honest - how many people do you think voted without even looking at the bracket? We already know that the majority of voters haven't made a bracket yet or plan to at all. I would take this as more of a competition between the four #1 seeds than an actual case for the real champion, and even then... 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon I'm going to lose. --- RPGP/RPGDL Contributor "DragoonJay"; Smart Ask! National Champion (2003) Chanting Monks www.rpgdl.com |
| From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/14/2004 8:52:50 AM | Message Detail |
| Count
me in, Ulti. Except, I'm not willing to call anyone "God," in my sig or
anywhere else... But yeah, I'll post their name in bold at the top of
the sig, and all that good stuff. And also, I don't see why we need to
rely on the honor system... we could just put up a new topic on the
30th, after everyone should have all their picks finalized, and post
them in there. Then I'll save a copy of the topic and stick it in the
Archives, so we'll easily be able to tell if anyone is fibbing about
have predicted that big upset. I think all we need now is a name for our group. How about... The Contest Discussion Crew? I kind of like the sound of that. Oh, and one clarification. Are we just going to sig the eventual winner, or will we all be naming the Crew's current prediction leader (at least, once we get a ways into Round One, and it's not a massive tie)? I'd kind of like to do the latter, though it would be a little harder to do. --- the-elite.net Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/14/2004 8:58:57 AM | Message Detail |
| 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. ChichiriMuyo Smitelf, the point I'm trying to make is that there is an obvious reason why Pokemon sales figures don't match up to current Pokemon popularity so you can just stop talking about Pokemon. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/14/2004 9:01:13 AM | Message Detail |
| Ok,
but now for what you've all been waiting for... more stats from Ngamer!
There was some discussion a little earlier how much strength the
GameCube has gained over the past year, thanks to Wind Waker, the price
cuts, FFCC, and the like. So I decided to take a long hard look at past
polls, to get an exact number for the size of that increase. Here's
what I found: Got Console? - An Analysis of 128 Bit Platform Popularity September '03 (these polls were conducted only 4 days after the Championship of the Great Character Battle, meaning they give us an excellent idea of how a character/series might be able to improve from their last Contest performance) GameCube - 46354 users, 76620 total voters. 60.50% saturation PS2 - 62115 users, 86820 total voters. 71.54% saturation Xbox - 22678 users, 74548 total voters. 30.42% saturation December '03 (poll occurred early in the month, giving us a very good idea of how holiday sales would affect these numbers) GameCube - 41573 users, 66639 votes. 62.39 saturation. increase of 1.89% PS2 - 55393 users, 76587 votes. 72.33% saturation. increase of 0.78% Xbox - 22274 users, 68897 votes. 32.33% saturation. increase of 1.91% Feb '04 (results of holiday sales, as well as current trend heading into the Contest) GameCube - 43456 users, 64789 votes. 67.07% saturation. increase of 4.69%(!) PS2 - 47571 users, 64645. 73.59% saturation. increase of 1.26% Xbox - 21868 users, 61076 votes. 35.80% saturation. increase of 3.48% - Since last summer, the GameCube has seen it user base increase by a full 6.57% - The Xbox has been unable to keep pace, at 5.38% - The PS2 has come to a near standstill, with 2.04% So, what do these numbers show us? You can draw your own conclusions if you would like, but to me, all signs seem to be pointing toward a dramatic improvement for Nintendo's biggest GC titles. A couple things to think about: - The stats show GC going up by about 6 and a half, but that might be slightly misleading... Despite being held only one day apart, the PS2 was somehow able to gather over 10,000 more votes in the previous two polls. One can only assume that, in the past, seeing the word "GameCube" in a poll title was enough to turn off around 10k voters, a large majority of whom obviously didn't own the console. If we assume that 9/10 of these non-voters were also non-GC owners, the actual GC increase was an amazing 12.93%. But the non-voter trend has certainly come to an end now, as GC's total votes outdid both the PS2 and Xbox in the last round of Got Console polls. - GC and Xbox were running neck and neck at this site between the summer and year's end, but GC just exploded over the holidays. With the price still at $99, can we except this trend to continue straight on into the summer? - How many of these 5%+ new Xbox owners have picked up Halo and/or KotoR? (hint: alot) How many of the 7% of new GC owners have picked up Melee/Wind Waker/Prime? (hint: a whole lot) If I were you, I wouldn't underestimate a game like Melee, at least not if you're just doing so on the assumption that "GameFAQs is a PS2 site." That's all changing, and fast. --- the-elite.net Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs |
| From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/14/2004 9:16:02 AM | Message Detail |
| Whoops, forgot to do the list copying thing. 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. Ngamer 6. ChichiriMuyo Um... and... something to make this post worthwhile... Oh yeah! Thanks for the kind comments on the Top 100, everyone. Yeah, it's probably not accurate to the point where you can say with 100% confidence that, for instance, MGS2 has had more FAQ hits than Melee. But it's nice in that 4 of the Top 100 ranks you can be completly confident in, and the 5th (2003's), you simply can't find anywhere else. --- the-elite.net Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs |
| From: Sir Shake | Posted: 3/14/2004 9:29:16 AM | Message Detail |
| From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/14/2004 8:52:50 AM | Message Detail Count me in, Ulti. Except, I'm not willing to call anyone "God," in my sig or anywhere else Spoilsport.:p Its part of the game, its the sig that makes it funny. If yur gonna play, then play. This is where the 'big boys' compete...har har....</lamex10> ^_~ And this poll on the front page simply says FF VII is the favorite. It could be that half the people thatthink FF VII is going to win aren't going to vote for it come match-time. Then again, its almost taking half the votes. O_o --- Shake : Can ya cook? Kali101 : Not really. I nearly killed myself once, trying to make spaghetti. |
| From: Cloud is DA Bomb | Posted: 3/14/2004 9:34:45 AM | Message Detail |
| yea
the OoT and FF7 match will the be the ugliest we will see. OoT is a
better game though, and I have confidence in the Zelda fans/fanboys and
the average Joe who sees that OoT is the top ranked game ever, so I
dont thing FF7 will beat OoT. --- "I'm not a blind xbox fanboy anything but" ~ Raiders4Ever "I dont hate gamecube" ~ Raiders4Ever |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/14/2004 10:38:14 AM | Message Detail |
| Its part of the game, its the sig that makes it funny. If yur gonna play, then play. This is where the 'big boys' compete... Well, some people might think calling someone God in their sig is blasphemy, which is fair enough. However, if you enter our little contest, you MUST glorify the winner in your sig. Even if you don`t call him your God, make sure he`s there, okay? As for how to rely on our honor system, I have an idea. On April 2nd, when the contest has started and we cannot change our brackets, we all post our brackets in a seperate topic, including the tiebreaker. We keep the topic bumped, and there you go :) --- MIASU!! My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: cyko | Posted: 3/14/2004 11:09:55 AM | Message Detail |
Well, some people might think calling someone God in their sig is blasphemy, which is fair enough. However, if you enter our little contest, you MUST glorify the winner in your sig. Even if you don`t call him your God, make sure he`s there, okay? yeah, i'm with NGamer on this one. i'm not gonna call anyone here my God. but i will glorify the winner; something like, "UltimaterializerX beat the living crap out of me in the Spring Contest!" As for how to rely on our honor system, I have an idea. On April 2nd, when the contest has started and we cannot change our brackets, we all post our brackets in a seperate topic, including the tiebreaker. We keep the topic bumped, and there you go :) works for me. that being said, count me in. 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. Ngamer 6. ChichiriMuyo 7. cyko I think all we need now is a name for our group. How about... The Contest Discussion Crew? I kind of like the sound of that. how about "Contest Prediction Gurus" ? everyone likes a good guru. --- Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now. A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12 |
| From: Z1mZum | Posted: 3/14/2004 11:10:20 AM | Message Detail |
| Count me in as well. 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. Ngamer 6. ChichiriMuyo 7. z1mzum --- Mega Man in the Summer Contest '04? You better believe it! |
| From: cyko | Posted: 3/14/2004 11:17:33 AM | Message Detail |
| 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. Ngamer 6. ChichiriMuyo 7. cyko 8. Z1mzum --- Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now. A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12 |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/14/2004 11:18:05 AM | Message Detail |
| God could be replaced by master, or something, but you should indicate quite clearly that they are fully above you. That being said, not only will I call you my god but I'll also but anything you want into my sig as long as it doesn't violate the TOS. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: Sir Shake | Posted: 3/14/2004 11:27:36 AM | Message Detail |
...I'm in favor of another title. -as heard in a random topic- HOT FLINGETY FLANG! its Mario vs Crono all over again! What should I do ? Who should I choose? Impossible to predict! Who can? The Number D00dz. Whoah, just chill, mate. No need to flame and fill with hate. Relax and keep your cool. You need those dudes who rule. The Number D00dz. They think and ponder From here to over yonder. To analyze and dissect Until they have them all correct. Who could it be, I wonder? The Number D00dz. ...I rest my case. --- Shake : Can ya cook? Kali101 : Not really. I nearly killed myself once, trying to make spaghetti. |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/14/2004 11:52:00 AM | Message Detail |
| *pops in to laugh at Halo getting more votes than SMB3 in the PotD* ... *leaves to attempt to play KOTOR on a computer below the minimum requirements* --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: Rzrsk8er | Posted: 3/14/2004 11:57:12 AM | Message Detail |
| Count me in on your little contest i feel confident about my picks this year. |
| From: Yesmar | Posted: 3/14/2004 4:44:17 PM | Message Detail |
| Something interesting I noticed: In 2002, the favorite (Mario) lost in the Final Round. In 2003, the favorite (Link) lost in the Final Four, a round earlier. This year, if the favorite (Final Fantasy 7) loses, it will most likely happen in the Elite Eight, another round earlier. At this rate, by the 2005 Character Contest, the odds-on favorite will have lost in the very first round. --- Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing...--Ganondorf |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/14/2004 5:22:21 PM | Message Detail |
| Well,
any reasoning for changes aside, only 2 characters increased, and only
by a very small amount. And the the ones that dropped did so by a far
larger amount. So we shouldn't automatically count the South division's
change out, but probably not in, either. With reasoning
back in, I say that Kirby could've gotten more popular (more than that
1% shown) with going ahead of Jill this year, as well as that 11-seed
boost. As for margins of error, well...it's hard for me to say it, but I"ll just say something bluntly: you still don't believe if a match is done twice, that the results can vary by as much as two percent, assuming the characters stayed exactly the same in popularity, do you? I'm not trying to say that you do think that, but just remember that with 100,000 voters variance is INCREDIBLY small...you learn that from Inference procedures in the class Statistics. In fact, let's just create an example with a fake Magus vs. Ganondorf match in 2002 assuming they're the same as in 2003: Ick, I know, I know...this isn't totally correct, as these polls are more like a "census of all those who vote" rather than a "sample of a population", but hey, let's just pretend that we're doing an Simple Random Sample of what people think of Magus vs. Ganondorf on the entire population of GameFAQs, and that there is 1,200,000 visitors+ each day. Magus vs. Ganondorf - 31,000 to 29,000 (51.667%) - 60,000 total votes Magus vs. Ganondorf 2 - 55,179 to 54,529 (50.296%) - 109,708 total votes Let's do a 2-proportion Z-Test (sorry to show no math to it, but the calculator can do this stuff all by itself) on the TI-83, and we find that the probability of those 2 differences in percentages happening by coincidence is...6.73 x 10^-8, which is less than a 1-out-of-10 million chance of happening. But please don't assume that I thought you didn't know it...I guess I might as well demonstrate it to those who might not realize how stubborn large amounts can be in terms of variance. Also, another example: if "Monster" beat "Chump1" last year with 92.5% of the vote, "Pwnzor" beat "Chump2" with 90%, and earlier this year "Chump1" and "Chump2" split their vote equally, we don't really know who will win between "Monster" and "Pwnzor". The model would imply that since Chump1=Chump1, Monster=12.33x Chump1 and Pwnzor=9x Chump2, "Monster" would beat "Pwnzor" with about 57.8% of the vote. Clearly we'd have no confidence in this prediction though; there's just not much difference between 92.5% and 90%. At extremes like that, linearity cannot be relied on. Yes, and that's why Ms. Pac-Man could actually beat AiAi if they went one-on-one. I wish that chart you had comparing the values of the characters both years would show which characters, and such... You say that there is strong evidence that characters on a whole didn't "decrease", and the chart does show that...but what about the Elite 9? They're supposed to be the most accurate values for characters, right? Why would Mega Man, Samus, and Sonic all take a dive? That's pretty strong evidence alone that the 2003 characters did decrease in their value as a whole. And you still haven't said anything about Sephiroth possibly overperforming against Link yet, as Slowflake pointed out. What do you think of that? As for the polls of which #1 seed is most likely to win...wow...I didn't notice that so many people thought Cloud would win the 2003 Contest...more than double of what Mario got. Now seeing that FF7 is at least tripling everybody (when Link failed to double Cloud in that poll), it seems that FF7 is the only #1 seed that has any chance of winning. It's either FF7, or it's something that's not a 1-seed. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/14/2004 5:25:17 PM | Message Detail |
| How
about count me in? We could do more than just see how we do against
each other, but we could also calculate our "odds" of each game for
winning the tourney... 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. Ngamer 6. ChichiriMuyo 7. cyko 8. Z1mzum 9. Haste2 --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: neoatomtaco | Posted: 3/14/2004 6:43:05 PM | Message Detail |
| throw me in, 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. Ngamer 6. ChichiriMuyo 7. cyko 8. Z1mzum 9. Haste2 10.Neoatomtaco --- "isnt monkey love a beautiful thing"Rikku-FFX-2I am not a Taco ingrediant, Damn you! BTW yes it is. LOL |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 3/14/2004 6:55:52 PM | Message Detail |
| I`m all for this. =) 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. Ngamer 6. ChichiriMuyo 7. cyko 8. Z1mzum 9. Haste2 10. Neoatomtaco 11. Heroic Mario --- Nintendo - Born To Play Henshin a go, go baby! - Viewtiful Joe |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/14/2004 11:14:13 PM | Message Detail |
| Let's
do a 2-proportion Z-Test (sorry to show no math to it, but the
calculator can do this stuff all by itself) on the TI-83, and we find
that the probability of those 2 differences in percentages happening by
coincidence is...6.73 x 10^-8, which is less than a 1-out-of-10 million
chance of happening. Why a t-test? We don't know the population mean, and this is a binomial distribution. A simple z-test will suffice, where z=(p-.5)/sqrt(p*q/n) In the case of Magus (55,179 votes) vs. Ganon (54,529), p is the proportion of Magus' votes (.502962) and q is the proportion of Ganon's, and n is 109,708. So z is ~1.962. So the probability of Ganon beating Magus is about 1 in 40, not 1 in 10 million. You can get the same result with a normal approximation. Assume the mean proportions are 50% each, and n is 109,708; the standard deviation is thus about 165.6. Magus beat Ganon by 650 votes; however, remember that this is a poll and only 325 votes need to switch for Ganon to tie. And 325/165.5 is also 1.962. As for margins of error, well...it's hard for me to say it, but I"ll just say something bluntly: you still don't believe if a match is done twice, that the results can vary by as much as two percent, assuming the characters stayed exactly the same in popularity, do you? The thing is, this isn't as simple of a case as just applying the binomial distribution. For one thing, the total number of votes is itself a variable. For another, voting patterns appear to change according to time of day. So even the volatility of the voting is stochastic. If we go with assuming a simple binomial distribution with constant vote totals, then according to Mario's vote total of 66,571 to Crono's 66,434, if you replay that day 100 times, Mario will win about 64.6 times. But this is of somewhat limited usefulness when trying to predict performance across years. The volatility across years clearly dwarfs binomial variances. So for all intents and purposes, a future Mario vs. Crono match is a toss-up. However, it is even questionable that Mario would win that match 64% of the time that same date in history was repeated again, because this is not a simple binomial process. The complicating factors also clearly imply increased volatility, thus reducing confidence in binomially calculated expectations. Anyway, most of my discussion was centered around the utility and consistency of the Linearly Extrapolated model. I was trying to say the non-heavyweights are clearly not as useful when it comes to this model. While we can't measure consistency of performance across matches, since the bracket is not integrated--this is the very reason we have to use extrapolated results; we have to work backwards from the end--we can measure consistency across years, and use that as a proxy for consistency. For instance, according to the model, Gordon Freeman improved in popularity by 116%. This seems quite unlikely. It makes more sense that the popularity of lesser characters isn't accurately calculated by the model, thus resulting in inconsistent results. So the results of a match involving Gordon Freeman would be of limited utility for prediction purposes. If the model predicts one party to win a match with 55% of the vote, and that is based on results involving lightweights, then the margin of error can be very huge. We can't say much for certain when dealing with characters who aren't in, say, the top 15. ...BAH...why is it that I always get the "maximum allowed size" message?? So annoying... --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/14/2004 11:15:30 PM | Message Detail |
| You
say that there is strong evidence that characters on a whole didn't
"decrease", and the chart does show that...but what about the Elite 9?
They're supposed to be the most accurate values for characters, right?
Why would Mega Man, Samus, and Sonic all take a dive? That's pretty
strong evidence alone that the 2003 characters did decrease in their
value as a whole. Thing is, on average, the Elite 9 improved by 7.5% from 2002 to 2003. Eliminate Cloud and Sephiroth, and they did decrease--by about 5.7%. Not very convincing. But...AHHH, I see what you mean about Sephiroth overperforming. While on the whole, Link's division actually declined more than Sephiroth's did (by 10.1% rather than 3.9%), in Sephiroth's division Mega Man, Samus, Sonic, and Ryu--all respectable characters--each declined significantly (Samus not as much as the others). Jill, Kirby, and Scorpion were really the only characters of real note in Link's division, and only Jill declined significantly among these. There can't really be much doubt that on the whole, the 2003 bracket was stronger than the 2002. How much stronger? Well, the average Link ratio in 2002 was ~.264, and in 2003 it was ~.334. BUT, the average repeat character increased 8.4% geometrically in popularity from 2003 to 2002. It is doubtful that such a systematic increase is popularity among returning characters occurred. So we can simply adjust all 2003 characters down by that much, and give them an average Link ratio of .309. Which means that, on average, the SC2K3 bracket was 17% stronger than the SC2K2 bracket. A fairly hefty jump. This can actually be written off entirely due to the following: 1) Elimination of complete jobbers. Just by removing Kane and everyone below him in the extrapolated standings, the average 2002 Link ratio jumps to .289. 2) KH factor. This brings the 2003 ratio down to .32. Now, discounting by the overall increase, the adjusted year-over-year popularity jump was only 2.2%; not significant at all. I do see what you're saying about Sephiroth overperforming against Link though...Mega Man, Samus, Sonic, and Ryu all declining in extrapolated popularity is suspicious, though inconclusive. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/15/2004 10:26:20 AM | Message Detail |
| Bump. --- MIASU!! My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: i am vishnu 2 | Posted: 3/15/2004 10:42:33 AM | Message Detail |
| count me in 1. UltimaterializerX 2. Shake 3. Starion 4. DomaDragoon 5. Ngamer 6. ChichiriMuyo 7. cyko 8. Z1mzum 9. Haste2 10. Neoatomtaco 11. Heroic Mario 12.i am vishnu 2 --- Topic: Why does everyone hate the sailing in wind waker? "Because they all have ADHD" Orochi DP |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/15/2004 10:45:03 AM | Message Detail |
| ^^^NICE. SIG. --- MIASU!! My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: The Raven 2 | Posted: 3/15/2004 11:16:57 AM | Message Detail |
| Something else to think about... In the two years that the Summer Contests have been held, only one #10 seed has advanced to the second round. 2002 #7 Pikachu defeated #10 Parappa #7 Knuckles defeated #10 Akira #7 Strider defated #10 Raziel #7 Sephiroth defeated #10 Gabe Logan 2003 #7 KOS MOS defeated #10 Crash #7 Zero defeated #10 Scorpion #10 Max Payne defeated #7 Gordon #7 Zelda defeated #10 Lara Not very good showings for the #10 seeds. If this is the case this year, then River City Ransom, Doom, NiGHTS, and KOTOR are in trouble... --- Mind of destructive taste, I choose to stroll amongst the waste that was your heart. Lost in the dark, call off the chase |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/15/2004 12:04:01 PM | Message Detail |
| And here I thought this would be the one place I could go to forget about my Probability Theory homework... --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
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