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| Spring 2004 Contest |
| Pre-Season Spring 2004 Contest Discussion - Part 2 |
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| From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/11/2004 4:31:01 PM | Message Detail |
| Alright,
I think it's finally time to reveal what I've been working on for days
and days now. I've done a few other things, like updating the Final
Fours and all, but this has been my main project for a long while now.
Its The Top 100 FAQs of All-Time Now, a few things. Firstly, it's not really "all-time", since CJay didn't start tracking hits until October of 1998. (This also helps explain why Ocarina/FF7/GE/etc aren't ranked higher than they are.) Second, it is of course debatable as to how much FAQ popularity will determine a game's performance in a Contest. But regardless, this is a project that I've wanted to get off the ground for months now, and I think the results are well worth seeing, regardless of whether or not they will influence the remainder of the questionable calls in your bracket. And, given the large collection of stat-heads who populate these fantastic Discussion topics, I hope some of you will enjoy seeing this as well. I'm going to post the full 100 in the next two posts, but PLEASE, don't actually try to follow the data that way! I spent a bunch of time converting the listing into a nice, colorful HTML table that will be much easier on the eyes. So please check that out instead: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/topfaqs/ In addition, with the page there I've added some data on a few Contest games which didn't quite make the Top 100. I've also attempted to preemptively tackle some of what I expect to be the most Frequently Asked Questions, such as, "Why doesn't FF7 run away with the #1 spot?" Enjoy! --- the-elite.net Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs |
| From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/11/2004 4:32:24 PM | Message Detail |
| The 23 members of The Great Game Contest have been bolded. The Top 100 FAQs January 1, 1999 through December 31, 2003 Rank | Game | Total Hits | (Top 100 Positions, 2003 - 1999) 1 Final Fantasy X - 7.740 ( 2 1 9 - - ) 2 Final Fantasy VII - 7.655 ( 6 8 4 4 4 ) 3 Grand Theft Auto III - 7.263 ( 7 2 10 - - ) 4 Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 6.600 ( 1 3 - - - ) 5 Final Fantasy VIII - 6.453 ( 17 15 5 1 1 ) 6 Kingdom Hearts - 5.652 ( 4 4 - - - ) 7 Final Fantasy IX - 5.398 ( 18 10 1 5 - ) 8 Metal Gear Solid 2 - 4.763 ( 25 5 7 - - ) 9 Super Smash Bros. Melee - 4.633 ( 9 8 22 - - ) 10 Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 4.487 ( 23 23 16 10 3 ) 11 Pokemon Gold/Silver - 4.303 ( 52 28 3 3 - ) 12 Chrono Cross - 4.165 ( 41 26 6 2 - ) 13 Elder Scrolls III, The: Morrowind - 4.094 ( 15 14 - - - ) 14 Golden Sun - 3.921 ( 13 7 33 - - ) 15 Zelda: A Link to the Past - 3.713 ( 42 47 42 49 62 ) 16 Final Fantasy Tactics - 3.487 ( 22 22 20 34 19 ) 17 Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire - 3.401 ( 3 68 - - - ) 18 Diablo II: Lord of Destruction - 3.152 ( 16 25 17 22 - ) 19 Animal Crossing - 3.007 ( 8 16 - - - ) 20 Jedi Outcast - 2.697 ( 36 9 - - - ) 21 Metroid Prime - 2.692 ( 10 18 - - - ) 22 Zelda: Majora's Mask - 2.683 ( 55 46 8 12 - ) 23 Final Fantasy III - 2.658 ( 53 42 30 36 27 ) 24 Phantasy Star Online - 2.640 ( 84 66 2 - - ) 25 Legend of Dragoon, The - 2.559 ( 66 49 21 8 - ) 26 Gran Turismo 3 A-spec - 2.380 ( 63 27 11 - - ) 27 WarCraft III - 2.342 ( 30 13 - - - ) 28 Chrono Trigger - 2.321 ( 73 63 27 26 51 ) 29 Zelda: The Wind Waker - 2.296 ( 5 - - - - ) 30 Baldur's Gate II - 2.275 ( 67 52 12 37 - ) 31 Devil May Cry - 2.262 ( 68 20 25 - - ) 32 Resident Evil - 2.168 ( 69 11 - - - ) 33 Halo - 2.127 ( 26 32 96 - - ) 34 Super Mario Sunshine - 2.093 ( 65 12 - - - ) 35 Dynasty Warriors 3 - 2.080 ( 59 19 81 - - ) 36 Resident Evil 3: Nemesis - 2.049 ( - - 31 6 8 ) 37 Neverwinter Nights - 2.041 ( 39 17 - - - ) 38 WWE SmackDown! Shut Your Mouth - 1.880 ( 32 31 - - - ) 39 Pokemon - 1.856 ( - - - 11 2 ) 40 Suikoden III - 1.832 ( 38 29 - - - ) 41 Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages - 1.785 ( 92 50 13 - - ) 42 Mortal Kombat: Deadly Alliance - 1.775 ( 95 36 - - - ) 43 Metroid Fusion - 1.773 ( 29 40 - - - ) 44 Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Seasons - 1.689 ( 93 56 14 - - ) 45 Ragnarok Online - 1.617 ( 14 87 - - - ) 46 Sonic Adventure 2 Battle - 1.564 ( 72 30 - - - ) 47 WWF SmackDown! Just Bring It - 1.563 ( 64 33 - - - ) 48 Xenogears - 1.548 ( - - 53 38 6 ) 49 Pokemon Crystal - 1.509 ( 83 55 51 - - ) 50 Silent Hill - 1.507 ( - - 86 45 5 ) |
| From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/11/2004 4:33:05 PM | Message Detail |
| 51 Silent Hill 2 - 1.495 ( 94 59 34 - - ) 52 Splinter Cell - 1.438 ( 60 43 - - - ) 53 Star Ocean: The Second Story - 1.436 ( - - 71 30 7 ) 54 Dungeon Siege - 1.383 ( 61 48 - - - ) 55 Dragon Warrior VII - 1.339 ( 91 69 55 - - ) 56 TimeSplitters 2 - 1.325 ( 98 76 - - - ) 57 Gold Sun: Lost Age - 1.323 ( 11 - - - - ) 58 Star Fox Adventures - 1.317 ( 88 39 - - - ) 59 Onimusha 2 - 1.275 ( 96 38 - - - ) 60 Yu-Gi-Oh! Forbidden Memories - 1.229 ( - 21 - - - ) 61 Dynasty Warriors 4 - 1.244 ( 12 - - - - ) 62 Rogue Leader - 1.208 ( - 41 54 - - ) 63 Resident Evil 0 - 1.207 ( 76 57 - - - ) 64 Eternal Darkness - 1.170 ( - 24 - - - ) 65 Marvel vs. Capcom 2 - 1.139 ( - - 36 14 - ) 66 Wild Arms 3 - 1.108 ( 80 67 - - - ) 67 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3 - 1.086 ( - 78 49 - - ) 68 Perfect Dark - 1.073 ( - - 32 9 - ) 69 Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - 1.051 ( 78 75 - - - ) 70 Final Fantasy X-2 - 1.020 ( 19 - - - - ) 71 Pokemon Yellow - 1.017 ( - - - 17 11 ) 72 FFTactics: Advance - 1.005 ( 20 - - - - ) 73 Star War: KotOR - 0.989 ( 21 - - - - ) 74 Hitman 2: Silent Assassin - 0.989 ( 75 71 - - - ) 75 Dragon Ball Z: Budokai - 0.980 ( - 35 - - - ) 76 Legend of Legaia - 0.958 ( - - - 46 9 ) 77 Castlevania: Circle of the Moon - 0.951 ( - 82 35 - - ) 78 Dark Cloud - 0.948 ( - 80 37 - - ) 79 Final Fantasy XI - 0.925 ( 25 - - - - ) 80 Gran Turismo 2 - 0.916 ( - - 84 18 55 ) 81 Castlevania: Harmony of Dissonance - 0.912 ( 97 77 - - - ) 82 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2 - 0.911 ( - - 50 20 - ) 83 WWF SmackDown! 2 - 0.910 ( - - 15 32 - ) 84 Soul Calibur 2 - 0.909 ( 27 - - - - ) 85 Metal Gear Solid - 0.903 ( - - - 44 10 ) 86 WWF No Mercy - 0.902 ( - - 18 29 - ) 87 F-Zero GX - 0.893 ( 28 - - - - ) 88 Mega Man Battle Network 2 - 0.853 ( - 44 - - - ) 89 Xenosaga - 0.845 ( 31 - - - - ) 90 Yu-Gi-Oh! The Eternal Duelist Soul - 0.843 ( - 45 - - - ) 91 Mario Kart Double Dash - 0.813 ( 33 - - - - ) 92 Seiken Densetsu 3 - 0.812 ( - - 60 56 57 ) 93 Syphon Filter - 0.807 ( - - - 52 12 ) 94 Donkey Kong 64 - 0.804 ( - - - 23 25 ) 95 Mario and Luigi Superstar - 0.797 ( 34 - - - - ) 96 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater - 0.794 ( - - - 16 33 ) 97 Goldeneye - 0.793 ( - - - 40 14 ) 98 WWF Wrestlemania 2000 - 0.793 ( - - - 23 29 ) 99 Super Mario World - 0.779 ( 90 100 - - - ) 100 Super Smash Brothers - 0.778 ( - - - 55 13 ) |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/11/2004 4:38:50 PM | Message Detail |
| Whoa. That's a sweet list. Of course, it is indeed debatable whether these numbers should be trusted or not. Interesting factoid... GTA:VC has been out for far less long than SSBM, yet it still dominates in that department. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: charmander6000 | Posted: 3/11/2004 4:42:14 PM | Message Detail |
| Best Games from Console Based on Nominations Arcade – 8 Bit 1. Tetris 2. Donkey Kong 3. Pong 4. Pac-Man 5. Contra 6. Pitfall 7. Galaga Arcade – 16 Bit 1. Street Fighter II 2. The Simpsons 3. Mortal Kombat Arcade – 32/64 Bit 1. Dance Dance Revolution Atari 2600 – 8 Bit 1. Adventure Dreamcast – 128 Bit 1. Soul Calibur 2. Skies of Arcadia 3. Shenmue Game Boy Advance – 128 Bit 1. Final Fantasy Tactics Advance 2. Fire Emblem Game Boy Color – 32/64 Bit 1. Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal GameCube – 128 Bit 1. Super Smash Bros. Melee 2. Metroid Prime 3. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker Genesis – 16 Bit 1. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 2. Gunstar Heroes 3. Shining Force 4. Phantasy Star IV NES – 8 Bit 1. Super Mario Bros. 3 2. Legend of Zelda 3. Final Fantasy 4. Metroid 5. River City Ransom 6. Duck Hunt 7. Metal Gear Nintendo 64 – 32/64 Bit 1. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 2. GoldenEye 007 3. Perfect Dark 4. Super Mario 64 PC – 16 Bit 1. Doom PC – 32/64 Bit 1. Fallout 2 PC – 128 Bit 1. Half-Life 2. Starcraft PlayStation – 32/64 Bit 1. Final Fantasy VII 2. Metal Gear Solid 3. Final Fantasy Tactics 4. Xenogears 5. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 6. Resident Evil 7. Suikoden II PlayStation 2 – 128 Bit 1. Final Fantasy X 2. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 3. Kingdom Hearts 4. Metal Gear Solid 2 Saturn – 32/64 Bit 1. NiGHTS into dreams... 2. Panzer Dragoon Saga Sega Master System – 8 Bit 1. Phantasy Star SNES – 16 Bit 1. Chrono Trigger 2. Final Fantasy III/VI 3. Super Metroid 4. Super Mario World 5. The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 6. EarthBound 7. Super Mario RPG 8. Secret of Mana Xbox – 128 Bit 1. Halo: Combat Evolve 2. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic --- LUE is a cancer, and if it can't be destroyed, it must be contained. - CjayC My site for the games contest http://www.freewebs.com/spring_game_contest/ |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/11/2004 4:52:44 PM | Message Detail |
| What
ceej said was 99% of the games that got in were based on nominations
and 1% for allowing him to get rid of jokes. He didn't say anything
about seeding. --- "undead pirates with two swords are cooler than Disney" - metroid composite on Kingdom Hearts vs. Soul Calibur |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 3/11/2004 8:58:56 PM | Message Detail |
| Been away...so here I am :) Cyko: Thanks for givin me props for mentioning the Phantasy Star Collection for GBA. RPG'rs, go buy this retro goodness now! Seedings & Noms: Ceej did good keepin jokes out on the whole. But Duck Hunt? Great Game? Nah I dont think so...I could think of 100 games spanned across the river of gaming time that are better than that lousy joke of a game... Vice vs KOTOR: I thank all of you fellow predictors and statheads for getting me to do somethin I never did...change a vote! Yep, my prior backing of KOTOR has been scrapped... Oh Contra: How I wish I could vote for you...and I still may...consider this...if Ceej uses the pics of the game logos/title screens...Contra has a way more recognizable screen with the big "C" which has been used in every COntra game and is known by tons of gamers. Could draw some casual votes...hmmmm....what ya think? Earthbound will never beat Doom...take it to the bank! More comin tomorrow :) --- Trivia XII: Neo Diehards...SC2K4: Match 1: Go SMB3! "A real gamer...standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years!" |
| From: masteremerald 2 | Posted: 3/12/2004 4:49:05 AM | Message Detail |
Nice to see so many competitive spirits. A few days before April, I'll make a topic where you can enter the 'Bracket Race', where you will have to announce your pick for the next day (or days) in advance. T'will be fun. ^_^ --- Status of Sir Shake : Warned. |
| From: NT220 | Posted: 3/12/2004 7:55:51 AM | Message Detail |
| Yeah,
this post is mainly here so I could tag this topic, but I just wanted
to post this observation: about a hundred posts ago someone asked how
well Super Mario Advance 4 selled. On GameSpot's sales rankings for the
US, it's still at no. 10 - despite being released nearly half a year
ago. Yep, it can compete with Zelda Collector's Edition. --- "The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/12/2004 10:30:54 AM | Message Detail |
| Look,
Ceej manipulating seeding was to create interesting matchups. Pong vs
Tetris, Sonic 2 vs Super Mario World, Goldeneye vs Perfect Dark, Wind
Waker vs Metroid Prime, and Chrono Trigger vs Super Mario World are
good examples of this. Not a big deal, but it`s there nonetheless. And I say that we all throw our scores into this topic, just for kicks. And the winner must be glorified within everyone else`s sigs, just so that there`s actually a prize ;) --- MIASU!! My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: masteremerald 2 | Posted: 3/12/2004 10:45:10 AM | Message Detail |
Seconds Ulti's 'Prize' idea. --- Shake's CYOA : Communism in the World of Bhaktar http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=12850430&page=0 |
| From: cyko | Posted: 3/12/2004 3:50:37 PM | Message Detail |
| nice compiling, NGamer64!! Ulti - i like that idea. i am in on that sweet competitive action. and also, if you recall, CJayC said that the seeding was 99% nominations and 1% "his own tweaking so that everything worked out." i didn't think anything about what that tweaking meant at first, but after looking at the matchups for a while, i definitely believe that he purposely created some of these matchups; especially Super Mario World vs. Sonic 2 and Perfect Dark vs. Goldeneye. --- Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now. A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12 |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/12/2004 4:17:05 PM | Message Detail |
| I'm down, down. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: Yesmar | Posted: 3/12/2004 4:23:15 PM | Message Detail |
| Very
interesting list. Of course if we went solely by this list than SSBM
wouldn't even make it out of the first round. But it's still
interesting. I'm beginning to seriously reconsider putting SSBM over
Vice City. And nobody ever responded to my comment about RPG's and FAQS from the first topic, if anybody remembers it that is. --- Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing...--Ganondorf The Leftovers member in Trivia XII |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/12/2004 7:07:23 PM | Message Detail |
| Chichiri: What ceej said was 99% of the games that got in were based on nominations and 1% for allowing him to get rid of jokes. He didn't say anything about seeding. I'm almost positive that he explicitly said 99% of seeding was based on nominations. Talk of these contrived match-ups doesn't seem to hold up...Super Mario World vs. Sonic 2 maybe, but a lot of these are stretches. Last year, Crono's spot was obviously intentionally fudged; not only was he clearly not a 4th seed, but he had to be put in the same division as Mario. I mean, you have to understand that even in a completely random bracket, there are going to be a number of very fascinating matcups. There aren't any really stand-out coincidences in this bracket though. One must also realize that just by the nature of bracketing according to generation, you increase the odds of rivalry or "special" type match-ups. Last year, with the brackets completely determined by Ceej, Mario vs. Crono was a lot less likely without manipulation. There just isn't much reason to doubt the accuracy of the seeding here though. If Goldeneye is a 3 seed and Perfect Dark is a 6 seed, they probably earned those according to nominations, without intervention. Though, I could buy Mario 64 as having really earned that seed, and CJayC noticing the potential intriguing match-up and switching them. steve: has a way more recognizable screen with the big "C" which has been used in every COntra game and is known by tons of gamers. Could draw some casual votes...hmmmm....what ya think? Heh...relying on pic factor is never a good idea. Voters have quite clearly shown they are not that fickle :) Only in same fanbase factor matches between a heavyweight and a non-heavyweight have voters shown any tendency towards fickleness. If you're trying to figure things out by pic factor, you're just getting desparate ;-) --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 3/12/2004 9:15:27 PM | Message Detail |
| Thank
you, creativename! Glad someone else remembers it like I do. I would
really like to see CJay's exact wording on this whole seeding issue one
more time... (No one happened to save that post, did they?) I'm almost
positive that when he said 99%, he was talking about the whole bracket,
seedings included. And I know he said that he had kept FF8 out of the
contest after it had earned the votes to make it in, but I forget if he
allowed for the possibility of his having done the same in other cases,
such as GTA3, for example. One thing I will guarantee, however, is that CJay did nothing whatsoever to eliminate joke nominations. He clearly stated that, much to his surprise, none of them gained enough votes for a top 16 spot. And then, I think Ulti said something about how whether or not the seedings were altered really matters. Um... excuse me? There must be over 50 posts in this topic alone dedicated to trying to come up with intelligent picks based on nothing but seeding! If Mario 64 was actually supposed to be a 4, for instance, that makes all this analysis pretty much useless. This is another reason that I don't think CJay would switch things up on us like that. And also, I don't see why he would have to had messed around with things in order to create these neat matchups. My Contest last summer (http://www.bracketmaker.com/scripts-bracketmaker/tlist.cfm?tid=35931) had some really cool matchups as well (Half-Life VS Doom! Halo/Contra/MGS2/Perfect Dark!), despite the fact that I tried to keep my hand out of intentionally setting them up as much as possible. --- the-elite.net Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/12/2004 9:17:36 PM | Message Detail |
| It's
not a desperate move, atcually... we have no idea how much pics affect
matches... we certainly know "celda" Link doesn't have as many fans,
and we should also know that bat-cloud looks cooler. Hell, for all we
know the jump Seph and Cloud took could be from better pictures and not
extra exposure... which would also explain Sora because he just doesn't
look cool, so relation to KH wouldn't help him any. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/12/2004 9:21:56 PM | Message Detail |
| Or
that could be extra incentive to switch up a few... no one likes
over-predictability... that's why everyone complained to no end about
Link's chances of winning again. A lot of people were upseyt the seeds
were too acurate, and every elite 8 was a 1 or 2 seed. A few mixups
here and there keep it interesting, lower complaints, and makes winning
that prize more than a mindless game of picking the higher seed until
the elite 8 matches and ending with 90% of your matches right. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/12/2004 9:50:54 PM | Message Detail |
| we certainly know "celda" Link doesn't have as many fans, Uh...WHAT? I have made multiple posts on this subject. It is absolutely, eminently clear that Celda Link's performance was very much in line with expectations of what his performance would have been by extrapolating from previous matches, and also makes perfect sense with regards to the finals result. There is NO VALID EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER to believe that Link was hurt by his pic against Cloud. I cannot emphasize this enough. We can strongly suspect that Celda Link isn't liked as much as adult Link, but up to this point in time there is no reason at all to think this affects voting patterns. Again, I state: voters do not appear to be that fickle. few mixups here and there keep it interesting, lower complaints, and makes winning that prize more than a mindless game of picking the higher seed until the elite 8 matches and ending with 90% of your matches right. Why would "mixups" be at all necessary, when: 1) The very nature of the nomination process being done by a small subset of the voting population makes nominations (and, thus, seedings) not an entirely reliable way of forecasting poll results. 2) The "one game per system" factor makes nominations and seedings bassed on them in many instances a very unreliable factor for forecasting poll results, as well documented in these analysis threads. Given that CJayC specifically made the effort to point out that seedings were almost entirely based on nominations, and that he directly addressed the "Halo overseeding" issue--indicating he was very much aware of point 2--I see no reason not to trust him. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/12/2004 9:59:34 PM | Message Detail |
| A
small portion of a larger body is always the most reliable way to test
an audience short of polling every individual. this is why we have
Nielsen Ratings. And you're seriously going to use Fox as a basis for judging Link's performance from one year to the next? Mario vs. DK, Link vs. Fox... these are matches of the same proportion, really. Link at his worst shoudl blow Fox out of the water, and what we had was Link at his worst. Proof? No, but it negates your claim to proof in the opposite direction. If nothing else I really believe the should have gone worse for Fox. Given that didn't happen, well... you could suspect that "celda" doesn't hurt and that SFF doesn't exist, or you could suspect that "celda" does hurt and negated the SFF results we'd have seen with adult Link. And you don't find it at all suspicious that Link suddenly looks "ghey" (according to the general concensus, no insult intended) and Clou looks "teh cool" (to new gamers more than older FF7 fans, of course) and suddenly the result is the opposite of what should be expected? I find it highly suspicious. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/12/2004 10:01:48 PM | Message Detail |
| There is NO VALID EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER to believe that Link was hurt by his pic against Cloud I should note that there is a reason to believe that Link was hurt by his pic: the a priori expectation was that Link would have no difficulty whatsoever defeating Cloud. Thus, since this expectation was not matched, an explanatory factor such as "pic factor" might seem to make sense. However, quite clearly, the dynamic expectation for Link vs. Cloud right before the match should have been either even, or slightly in favor of a victory for Cloud. (I made this point in the Stats thread last year, before the match) That Link remained a semi-heavy favorite among the analysts--though not nearly as heavy as before--was more due to people in their "guts" not believing Link could lose. It should be noted that according to my records, in the Prophet challenge, people picked Cloud to win against Link by a ratio of 17 to 15; he was indeed the favorite there. So, there is a reason to believe Link was hurt by his pic; just not, as I said, a valid one, as it relies on expectations that do no adapt to the evidence. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/12/2004 10:17:24 PM | Message Detail |
| A
small portion of a larger body is always the most reliable way to test
an audience short of polling every individual. this is why we have
Nielsen Ratings Well, obviously...if it's a random sample. It you had a truly random sample, you could accurately predict most results with only a hundred or so in the sample (though you'd need a lot more for close matches, and matches like Sonic vs. Samus '02 would be unpredictable even if you polled the entire population). That those people who nominate the characters are not necessarily representative of the general population is hardly breaking news, and a commonly accepted fact. In fact, in many ways it might even be an overrated fact, as the nominations are probably fairly accurately representative of voting patterns. However, for one thing, the system (as in, the competitive system, not system as in console) is not the same; you have people choosing from amidst a large number of games to nomiante just a few, and on the polls, you only have two competitors at a time. The nature of the systems are not the same; though for the most part the results would be similar, it is easy to imagine some elements (i.e., games) would have "support distributions" different from others. In other words, the stereotypical "hardcore fanbase" game would be overrated by the nomination process with regards to its poll outcome. So you have a subgroup that is not a random of the entire population; and the system is different. While for the most part, the results can still be extrapolated with fair accuracy, it is not perfectly clear. A Link to the Past would probably be favored against Super Mario World and slightly favored over Super Metroid, despite being seeded lower on the same console. Add in the "one nomination per system" factor, and you have cases like the heated debate of Halo vs. Starcraft. And you're seriously going to use Fox as a basis for judging Link's performance from one year to the next? Huh?? The results were predictable due to Cloud vs. Sonic and Link vs. Samus, not Link vs. Fox. Heavyweight vs. lightweight matches, or matches that result in very disproportionate vote totals, are not a reliable indicator; the linearity assumption breaks down at extremes. Proof? No, but it negates your claim to proof in the opposite direction Simply put, NO. Absolutely not. (And I don't really understand all your talk about Fox.) and suddenly the result is the opposite of what should be expected? Opposite...? What? My whole point is that a close result between Link and Cloud was extremely predictable, and was in fact by far the most logical thing to expect before the match. To actually expect Cloud to win was not so clear, but in no way was Cloud beating Link the "opposite result" from ratinoale expectations. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/12/2004 10:18:04 PM | Message Detail |
| ratinoale Blah...rationale. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/12/2004 10:35:44 PM | Message Detail |
| Personally,
there is one thing I still worry about with this contest: pictures. A
lot of these matches may be swayed if character portraits are portrayed
for the games. --- MIASU!! My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/12/2004 10:42:37 PM | Message Detail |
| you have people choosing from amidst a large number of games to nomiante "nomiante"...hmm, sounds Spanish ;) Anyway, I'll also add this: the results of Cloud vs. Link also made sense with regards to the results of Mario vs. Crono, Sephiroth vs. Mario, Sephiroth vs. Mega Man, and Cloud vs. Sephiroth. Everything points to Link being as popular in 2003 as he was in 2002, or near enough so that it makes no difference. ...in fact, working through Sephiroth vs. Mario/Sephiroth vs. Cloud/Link vs. Cloud, you have Link 2003 having a popularity ratio of about .972 of Link 2002. That is, Link 2003 would've gotten 49.3% of the vote against Link 2002. But among the many possibilities for evaluating this, that is the only way I was able to come up with Link 2003 being less popular than Link 2002: every other way I tried, he was more popular; in some cases much more so. I'd rely on this way best, since it is directly deducable through Mario vs. Crono, and those are the two guys whom we can be most assured had their popularities change the least across years. But if you instead assume Mega Man's popularity was constant and extrapolate from that, you have Link '03 being 1.195 times Link '02 (implying he would've won with 54.45% of the vote). You can juggle around with a few other things too, and Link '03 usually comes out ahead of Link '02. Again, I'd trust the Mario vs. Crono extrapolation moreso than the others, but the point is clear enough with regards to Link being hurt by his picture in 2003: it had no negative effect at all. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/12/2004 10:43:56 PM | Message Detail |
| Personally,
there is one thing I still worry about with this contest: pictures. A
lot of these matches may be swayed if character portraits are portrayed
for the games. -_- ...wiseass. ;) --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: cyko | Posted: 3/13/2004 6:50:37 AM | Message Detail |
| you're
digging for numbers that aren't there, Creativename. when it all comes
down to it, Link didn't do as well in 2003 because there was a
significant amount of people that didn't want to see the same character
win year after year. that and Kingdom Hearts gave both Cloud and
Sephiroth that extra boost in popularity. and i still don't understand how anyone can think that pictures don't influence these polls!! i'm not sure how big of a factor it will be in the Game Contest (it depends on the type of picture used), but in the character contest, the picture counts for a lot. do you honestly think that everyone who votes in these contests cares about the character they are voting for? hardly. people are superficial. most people who visit this site know who Cloud and Link are, but not everyone cares about them. and if a person sees a poll between two characters they don't care about and they feel the need to click on one of them, they are most likely going to pick the one that looks "cooler". now, it may not be as big of a factor when both characters are very well-known or if one character is far more known than the other, but the factor is still there. and in a close match or in a match between two people noone really cares about, it can make all the difference. --- Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now. A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12 |
| From: masteremerald 2 | Posted: 3/13/2004 7:15:01 AM | Message Detail |
IMO, pictures do not count in a significant way. A lot of the first round matches last year were almost predicted to the percent by math alone(Based on the previous year) In the earlier rounds, it became clear that mathematically Cloud was a little bit stronger then Link. In hindsight, had we trusted the numbers, we would have come to the conclusion Cloud was going to win the match against The Hero of Time. Of course most trusted their gut and went with the champ anyway. (Including me) The Celda pic didn't rob Link of a victory, or even something as small as a point. And since most other characters behave exactly as predicted beforehand (As in : before we see the picture) in almost all matches tells me that the pictures matter little, or that they used the same damn pictures throughout the contest for all the characters. But hey, if you're right, and pictures do matter, maybe we should just get Luigi another picture where he has a cape and a scythe and ask him to come back. I'm sure he'd beat Squall then. =) --- Shake's CYOA : Communism in the World of Bhaktar http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=12850430&page=0 |
| From: GunMage | Posted: 3/13/2004 7:59:53 AM | Message Detail |
| Mmm... discussion... ^_^ Heh, nice to know I can still come here and bask in the glow of analyzers who most likely know what they're doing and are better at this than I am! I hope you don't think of this as a shameless plug, but I'm running a betting contest based on spreads, and I'd like to know if you think they're on the level... Updated first round spreads: SMB3 (-70) vs. Metal Gear Metroid (-30) vs. Pac-Man Phantasy Star vs. Contra (-5) Final Fantasy (-75) vs. Pitfall Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt (-5) Legend of Zelda (-75) vs. Adventure Pong (-5) vs. River City Ransom Tetris (-60) vs. Galaga Chrono Trigger (-65) vs. Secret of Mana Super Mario RPG vs. Street Fighter II (-5) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (-55) vs. Shining Force Super Mario World (-50) vs. The Simpsons Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (-65) vs. Gunstar Heroes Super Metroid (-55) vs. Phantasy Star IV Earthbound vs. Doom (-5) Final Fantasy III/VI (-60) vs. Mortal Kombat Final Fantasy VII (-80) vs. Suikoden II Pokemon GSC (-5) vs. Xenogears Final Fantasy Tactics (-60) vs. Dance Dance Revolution Metal Gear Solid (-40) vs. Resident Evil Perfect Dark vs. Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (-10) Goldeneye (-65) vs. Panzer Dragoon Saga Super Mario 64 (-55) vs. NiGHTS into dreams... Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (-75) vs. Fallout II Halo (-25) vs. Starcraft Soul Calibur vs. Kingdom Hearts (-20) The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker (-45) vs. Skies of Arcadia Metroid Prime (-20) vs. Half-Life Final Fantasy Tactics Advance (-50) vs. Fire Emblem Final Fantasy X (-75) vs. Shenmue Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (-20) vs. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic Super Smash Brothers: Melee (-35) vs. Metal Gear Solid 2 They're based mostly on "expert's analysis" (that would be you guys ^_^), and a little bit of board hype, and they won't be finalized until about a few days before the actual contest starts. Is there anything you see for the current lines that really sticks out as a "sure thing"? (And for those who don't know how spreads work, take (100 - spread)/2. That's the percentage threshold for the underdog. Anything above is a win for the underdog, while anything below is a win for the favorite.) --- Married to Seijun: 3/7/2004 12:57:59 AM Thank you! ^_^ Proud supporter of Goldeneye for SpC2K4 |
| From: red sox 777 | Posted: 3/13/2004 8:20:13 AM | Message Detail |
| The
only 2 matches I see a problem with are Halo vs. Starcraft, where I
think the spread is too high, and Metroid Prime vs. Half-Life, where I
think the spread is too low. --- Red Sox Magic Number to To Win World Series: 164 Oh, Mario vs. Crono? Not a question of whether Mario will win or not, but HOW. - Slowflake |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/13/2004 8:27:58 AM | Message Detail |
| Hi everyone, I've been gone a while ;) Anyway, on the subject of pics...how can you honestly think they do not matter at all? If you haven't played either game, you've only got three things to go on: a) have I heard of this game? b) which has the cooler name? c) which has the cooler pic? And not necessarily in that order. Pics will be critical in Division 8 where the teenaged crowd will, in all likelihood, not have played many of the games. Having heard of them will give them the edge, like SMB3, Zelda, etc. However, barring that, in a match where most voters don't know either game, the one with the coolest pic will win. Not only that, but pics will take the swing voters -- the ones who like each equally or are indifferent to each equally. GunMage -- I only took a quick look at your numbers but it seems to me that FFVII doesn't deserve a -80 against Suikoden 2. That means that Suikoden 2 gets a max of 10% of the vote, right? I think it'll get more than that. I think this is more analogous to the Chrono Trigger vs. Secret of Mana match. Anyway, it should be -65 or -70, in my opinion, not -80, but hey, it's your contest, and if you stick with it all it means is that I get to vote against FFVII "winning", which would be fun. --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 8:37:00 AM | Message Detail |
| I'm
fairly confident that SC will beat that spread easily against KH. Even
if SC doesn't win, it'll put up one of the best fights you've seen
'round these here parts for something related to fighting games.
Fighters don't do too well here, but KH certainly doesn't have this one
in the bag just yet. And the Fox stuff... I don't even know what the hell I'm talking baout. Ignore it. It was late last night and I was in a rush to go watch Boogie Pop Phantom... But I will point out that the math was too tricky. The expected results changed from the beginning of the contest to the end, meaning Cloud beat the math as it was when it counted, predictions. *high-fives Ulti* good timing. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 8:38:21 AM | Message Detail |
| Oh
yes, something I found fairly interesting though rather irrelevant...
LoZ:Majora's Mask sold a quarter of a million copies more than Wind
Waker. That's MM, on the N64, no collectors disc counted. I'll leave
you with that thought. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/13/2004 8:55:44 AM | Message Detail |
| Oh
yes, something I found fairly interesting though rather irrelevant...
LoZ:Majora's Mask sold a quarter of a million copies more than Wind
Waker. That's MM, on the N64, no collectors disc counted. I'll leave
you with that thought. Do you happen to have the sales figures for Metroid Prime lying around? --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: masteremerald 2 | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:04:41 AM | Message Detail |
Chichiri, if that's the case, it may convince me to switch to my original thought again. Did Wind Waker sell that bad? --- Shake's CYOA : Communism in the World of Bhaktar http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=12850430&page=0 |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:06:13 AM | Message Detail |
| N64 Nintendo Super Mario 64 5.94 GBC Nintendo Pokemon Yellow 5.10 GBC Nintendo Pokemon Blue 5.02 N64 Nintendo GoldenEye 007 5.01 GBC Nintendo Pokemon Red 4.83 N64 Nintendo Mario Kart 64 4.80 GBC Nintendo Pokemon Silver 3.85 GBC Nintendo Pokemon Gold 3.75 N64 Nintendo Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3.57 N64 Nintendo Donkey Kong 64 2.87 GBC Nintendo Super Mario Bros. DX 2.80 N64 Nintendo Pokemon Stadium 2.74 N64 Nintendo Super Smash Brothers 2.74 N64 Nintendo Diddy Kong Racing 2.50 N64 Nintendo Star Fox 64 2.40 N64 Nintendo Pokemon Snap 1.91 N64 Nintendo Star Wars: Shadow of the Empire 1.73 N64 Nintendo Wave Race 64 1.70 GBA Nintendo Super Mario World: Super Mario Advance 2 1.67 GBC Nintendo Pokemon Crystal 1.65 N64 Nintendo Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 1.63 N64 Nintendo Banjo-Kazooie 1.61 GC Nintendo Super Smash Bros. Melee 1.60 GC Nintendo Super Mario Sunshine 1.55 N64 Nintendo Cruisin USA 1.48 GC Nintendo Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker 1.40 GBA Nintendo Super Mario Advance 1.37 GBA Nintendo Pokemon Ruby 1.37 GBA Nintendo Pokemon Sapphire 1.36 N64 Nintendo Perfect Dark 1.29 GC Nintendo Mario Kart: Double Dash!! 1.25 GC Nintendo Luigi's Mansion 1.22 GBC Nintendo Pokemon Trading Card Game 1.16 GBA Nintendo Mario Kart: Super Circuit 1.15 N64 Nintendo Yoshi's Story 1.10 N64 Nintendo Mario Party 2 1.10 N64 Nintendo 1080 Snowboarding 1.07 N64 Nintendo Mario Party 1.07 GC Nintendo Metroid Prime 1.06 Every one of NIntendo's million sellers in the US. Of course being a million seller isn't bad, but being outsold by Majora's Mask? That's questionable. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:06:23 AM | Message Detail |
| On the spreads: Donkey Kong vs. Duck Hunt: I'd also comment that DK has the advantage in this match, despite what the boards say. Super Mario RPG vs. Street Fighter II: Same as above. It's an RPG game vs. a fighting game. That alone gives SMRPG the advantage in a tenuous match. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic: Much as I hate to say it, VC will destroy KOTOR in this match. I'd say it deserves at least a -30. And KOTOR is one of my favorite games of all time...but there's no way it can cut it on this site against a PS2 favorite. --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:07:50 AM | Message Detail |
| Allow me also to point out the position of the Pokemon games on that list you just posted, Chichiri. --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:07:56 AM | Message Detail |
| Oh, and lest I forget, those from 95~96 and beyond, so obviously no NES or SNES figures included. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:11:23 AM | Message Detail |
| That's
just pure sales data from the beginning of 1995 to the end of 2003.
Pokemon was that big, and we know it's fallen. The game industry as a
whole goes upwards, however, and unless WW has sold 230,000 units in
the last 2 months (very unlikely even with the systems surge in sales),
it was actually out-sold by MM. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: masteremerald 2 | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:11:44 AM | Message Detail |
| Grand
Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic: Much
as I hate to say it, VC will destroy KOTOR in this match. I'd say it
deserves at least a -30. And KOTOR is one of my favorite games of all
time...but there's no way it can cut it on this site against a PS2
favorite. Seeing how much of a total juggernaut it is over at gamespy (66% against Goldeneye) I'm even considering Vice City as a dangerous outsider against KH and SSBM. --- Shake's CYOA : Communism in the World of Bhaktar http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=12850430&page=0 |
| From: Fish12002 | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:12:29 AM | Message Detail |
| IF the character battle is anything to go on looks like it will be FFVII wining --- "Any misdeed up to and including multiple genocide is forgiveable if you're cool enough." |
| From: DeathsUndeath | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:13:13 AM | Message Detail |
| What do you guys think about this potential match: Kingdom Hearts vs MSG2. I have picvked MSG2, but I'm not really sure. --- "I come through all dressed up in white linen. If a (chick) don't like me she must like women" - Big L R.I.P |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:13:22 AM | Message Detail |
| Chichiri - where did you get this, and is such data available for the PS2? --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: masteremerald 2 | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:15:38 AM | Message Detail |
Match 25 - March 3, 2004 1 Halo (2001, Xbox) 10,021 (61%) 8 GoldenEye 007 (1997, N64) 6,434 (39% Match 13 - February 26, 2004 1 GTA: Vice City (2002, PS2) 4,054 (70%) 8 Mega Man X (1993, SNES) 1,781 (30% Match 39 - March 11, 2004 1 GTA: Vice City (2002, PS2) 4,191 (53%) 4 Metal Gear Solid (1998, PS1) 3,662 (47%) I got mixed up, it was Halo that got the impressing win over Goldeneye. But since Vice City just whooped MGS (Both games that appeared on PC at one point or another) is even more impressive. --- Shake's CYOA : Communism in the World of Bhaktar http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=12850430&page=0 |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:18:36 AM | Message Detail |
| Seeing
how much of a total juggernaut it is over at gamespy (66% against
Goldeneye) I'm even considering Vice City as a dangerous outsider
against KH and SSBM. Against SSBM, it has much more than an outside chance. Not even considering Gamespy, Vice City is huge here for a non-RPG game. Heck, even including the RPGs, look at where it's FAQ is on the Top 10. Against KH, however...no, for the simple reason that it would have to take out FFX to get there. --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:19:39 AM | Message Detail |
| Also...Chichiri, how old are those sales figures? They could be misleading if they came out before the huge GC price drop. --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:21:09 AM | Message Detail |
| http://www.the-magicbox.com/charts.htm Charts there are compiled be professional groupls like Dengeki, so they are as accurate as you'll get. The 1 million seller list is: http://www.the-magicbox.com/Chart-USPlatinum.htm And, to my dismay, the charts on that site still show US GC sales as being 1 million less than Xbox... but I'll catsh up soon, I'm sure. Well, anyway you look at it GC is still tearing Xbox a new one in other parts of the world, especially Japan. Poor Xbox is getting out sold by a 3 to 1 margin by the playstation 1 in Japan. *shuckles* --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
| From: masteremerald 2 | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:22:35 AM | Message Detail |
This is the kind of mistakes you get when you're warned, and you have to log in to that account to view the bracket. Just against SSBM, of course. FFX would win convincingly in any scenario. Since SSBM can't accurately be measured by looking at Faqs visits, its hard gauging its strength. But I'm inclined to say it could take Vice City. On the other hand, a lot of people might choose SSBM in their bracket, and that makes Vice City a nice upset choice. I'll give it some thought. Again. --- Shake's CYOA : Communism in the World of Bhaktar http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=12850430&page=0 |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/13/2004 9:22:46 AM | Message Detail |
| As
I said, their latest tally accounted for sales up through the end of
the year, so that includes holliday sales. Yes, WW can still catch up,
but we're talking about catching up to MM, not OoT or LttP. --- This spot is reserved for the stat-head with the best Sp2k4 prediction. |
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