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| Spring 2004 Contest |
| Pre-Season Spring 2004 Contest Discussion - Part 2 |
| Team Rocket Elite (33): Board List | Topic List | Log Out | Help |
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| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:31:37 PM | Message Detail |
| Calling me a troll when I`m not trolling is trolling. I`d delete that if I were you. Actually it's flaming. But very few mods will delete it. --- Do you have any advice for filling out our brackets? ''Never underestimate the true power of fanboyism.'' ~CjayC |
| From: cronus striker | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:32:41 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:33:15 PM | Message Detail |
| Oh,
and the Turbo CD was just that, a CD based TG16. The Turbo Duo
conveniently had both built into. The PC Engine (Turbo ___) series of
hardware is actually highly varied, you should look into it. --- Medieval European Dude #2: It would appear to be a large Mongolian cavalry tearing through our forces like the Church through individual thought and beliefs. |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:37:01 PM | Message Detail |
| Team Rocket Elite: Why do you keep following me around and harassing me in every topic? I was here first. Thus you are following me. Your existence here is not and never has been welcome. Go away. Prove it. Find me concrete examples of every user not wanting me here, and present them in triplicate, a method all scientists use to verify results. --- Do you have any advice for filling out our brackets? ''Never underestimate the true power of fanboyism.'' ~CjayC |
| From: cronus striker | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:38:22 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:38:46 PM | Message Detail |
| I want TRE here. There goes the triplicate. And please, while we're at it, this is the second time this topic is turning into a flame war. Can't we just settle that ELSEWHERE? --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:39:46 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:42:27 PM | Message Detail |
| Slowflake
is right. This isn't the place to discuss this. cronus striker, if you
have something to say to me, my e-mail is in my profile. --- Do you have any advice for filling out our brackets? ''Never underestimate the true power of fanboyism.'' ~CjayC |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:49:52 PM | Message Detail |
| And please, while we're at it, this is the second time this topic is turning into a flame war. I apologize for that, by the way. I`ve become sort of a Chichiri fan since then. We`ve also apologized to each other, and hey, there you go. But at least he and I were mature enough to sort out our problems. Now I turn my attention to you, cronus. I`ve read through your topics from the last two days, and I`m not impressed. All you`ve been doing is harassing one vet at a time, and frankly, while I`ve seen your point on some issues, you have gone WAY over the line. I can understand going after guys like Aeon and MWIS and Shake. The way they act on occasion opens themselves up to be messed with a little (no offense. And hey, I even agreed with you on the user fights being a bit annoying, as did some other people. But now, you`ve just gone too far. Slowflake and Team Rocket Elite are among the oldest and most respected people here, and they have done NOTHING to you. The way you have been acting towards them is rude, disrespectful, and no matter what you say, it`s trolling. Now, I`ve kept my mouth shut for the last two days, but to be honest, I feel like I need to say something. You`ve gone after my friends, and people who I like and respect very much. I leave you two choices: 1 - Leave. No one you`ve come in contact with likes you in the least, and with every post you make, someone else hates you, too. 2 - Get your act together. Other people won`t forgive you, but I`m a nice enough guy to do so. Just two weeks ago, I led a resistance force geared toward getting Blackscar out of our board. Since then, he and I wound up patching things up on AIM, and he actually turned out to be a pretty good person, albeit with some spelling issues. But hey, that`s none of my business. Maybe he`s dislexic or something. But that`s not the point. You`ve only been annoying people for a day or two, so if you turn things around now, you may have a chance at respectability around here. --- MIASU!! My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:52:24 PM | Message Detail |
| This is rediculous. You okay, TRE? --- MIASU!! My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:54:14 PM | Message Detail |
| This is rediculous. You okay, TRE? I'm fine. --- Do you have any advice for filling out our brackets? ''Never underestimate the true power of fanboyism.'' ~CjayC |
| From: cronus striker | Posted: 3/20/2004 1:56:49 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: torey luvullo | Posted: 3/20/2004 2:01:29 PM | Message Detail |
| i
suggest that those of us who love this thread for what it is simply not
post in it, unless it is contest analysis related - at least for a
little while. letting the person you are arguing with have the last word is the appropriate strategy for this thread, i do believe. |
| From: cronus striker | Posted: 3/20/2004 2:04:54 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 2:06:23 PM | Message Detail |
| Going
by the letter of the TOS, you did nothing wrong. Going by the spirit of
the TOS, you did do something wrong. The problem is, it's the letter
that's being enforced. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 3/20/2004 2:07:19 PM | Message Detail |
| A Blackscar wannabe? ... XD --- "Delicious morsel! Let me get my bib...!" - Ultros "To be forgotten is worse than death...." - Freya Crescent |
| From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 3/20/2004 2:07:44 PM | Message Detail |
| Well said Ulti. Yeah, that`s my addition to this... --- Nintendo - Born To Play It`s amazing how much damage one robot can do... - Metal Arms: Glitch in the System |
| From: cronus striker | Posted: 3/20/2004 2:08:31 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 3/20/2004 3:22:56 PM | Message Detail |
| Well, let's try and guess how CJayC calculated the odds...it appears to not be based on 2^(x-1). Link - 1:9 odds R1: 96.39% R2: 80.49% R3: 69.01% R4: 57.01% R5: 30.63% R6: 12.77% That adds up to be 18.88 points out 192, which is 9.83%. That fits with the 1:9 odds. (assuming that 1:x odds means 1/(x+1) chance) But if we look at Mario, who's supposed to have 1:6 odds... R1: 95.87% R2: 81.71% R3: 72.52% R4: 44.24% R5: 30.96% R6: ?% Excluding Round 6, Mario has 13.99 points out of 192. So, even in the worst possible scenario, where Mario has odds of 1:6.5 (13.33% or 25.6 of the points), Mario would need 11.61 more points in the championship...which means that at least 36.28% of the brackets would need to have Mario winning the championship for that system to work! Well, I did hear that the CJayC's system is quite complicated, so it may factor in more than just the prediction proportions for each character for every round...say, maybe taking into account the difficulty of the sections of each bracket? Magus' 24% prediction-rate in his 4-pack was much tougher than Alucard's 28% prediction-rate in his 2002 4-pack, so maybe CJayC's odds system would award more points to Magus than he would to Alucard for the second round. Of course, calculating that kind of stuff out...eek. Oh, yes, and another obvious possibility is that CJayC might've put more weight in the later rounds than just x^2 would do. Any ideas? Number crunching? --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 3:51:45 PM | Message Detail |
| Looks
like the numbers for PC went down big time since this morning... back
then it was right up there with the PS2 and now it's struggling to stay
ahead of the Cube. In other news, I updated the Excel spreadsheet with the 7 new brackets I got yesterday, for a total of 54. I also corrected a mistake in which I forgot to count a bracket from Halo/Starcraft through FF10/Shenmue. And a suggestion to Solarshadow: since it seems that the discussion is dying down, save for the little incident this afternoon, I'd label the topic as the first contest one if I were you. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 3:52:11 PM | Message Detail |
| Sorry, yesterday should read today. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: dethwing | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:07:59 PM | Message Detail |
| You've got a small error on the spreadsheet. On the final match, you've got SSB:M as a 1st seed when it should be a 2nd. --- Basic Instructions Before Leaving Earth--Burlap to Cashmere Spring 2004 Final 4: Mario 3, CT, FF7, FFX |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:26:08 PM | Message Detail |
| Thanks. Fixed on my copy, and it'll be changed on the online version next update. You gotta admit though, SSBM would make a much better 1-seed than Halo. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:29:02 PM | Message Detail |
| I
think I`m about to have a heart attack. Seriously. My chest is POUNDING
from the chest to the throat, and it really hurts....... ;_; I`m scared... --- MIASU!! My SC2K4 Petition: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=7&topic=12558738 |
| From: torey luvullo | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:34:41 PM | Message Detail |
| call 911 or get to an emergency room. chew an aspirin on the way. |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:36:06 PM | Message Detail |
| Where is the spreadsheet? I'm sure you put a link somewhere... --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:38:07 PM | Message Detail |
| I'll repost it again: www.freewebs.com/slowflake/spc2k4.xls Maybe I should put it in my sig, or at least my quote. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: redline15 | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:41:19 PM | Message Detail |
| sorry for barging in here...but i'd like to ask a serious question about slowflake's stats. i've noticed that a lot of people have zelda: lttp beating both super metroid and final fantasy vi. i can understand super metroid...i'm pretty worried about that one myself...but why ff6? what analysis and evidence has led so many people to believe lttp can beat a final fantasy game four seeds ahead of it? whatever it is...i'm willing to bet it came from here...which is why i'm asking here. i haven't gone through the two topics...there's just too much to read...so i apologize if the arguments are still around. but i would appreciate a summary... thanks in advance... |
| From: smitelf | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:41:36 PM | Message Detail |
| ...uh, is that Excel format? If so, I shall have to wait until tomorrow to see it...this damn computer doen't even have Word -_- --- "Your fate is sealed, and none but yours." -- Auron Proud Supporter of Starcraft in the Spring 2004 Contest |
| From: torey luvullo | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:45:23 PM | Message Detail |
| redline,
some of it has to do with the comparative popularity of link vs kefka.
people have also discussed the number of topics and faqs, etc. it is all in this topic, and the ones listed in solarshadow's first post. i realize that is a lot to read; someone might come along and give a better summary than i just did... |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:45:34 PM | Message Detail |
| That's Excel. Now, about the SM/FF6 question... it is widely perceived that FF6 is nowhere as strong as LttP or SM. Of course, it's far from being unanimous, seeing how many people have FF6 beating LttP, but Kefka's performance in SC2K3, as well as how a distant second FF6 is to FF7 compared to LttP and OoT, are major turn-offs. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: Starion | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:48:07 PM | Message Detail |
| The
FF6/Lttp match can realistically go either way. My rationale for
picking Lttp has to do with my perception of FF6 becoming weaker
(popularity wise). I don't know if the stats really show this to be the
case though. --- Spring Contest 2004 - ????? VS. ????? Points - 0/192 |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:49:16 PM | Message Detail |
| i've noticed that a lot of people have zelda: lttp beating both super metroid and final fantasy vi. i can understand super metroid...i'm pretty worried about that one myself...but why ff6? what analysis and evidence has led so many people to believe lttp can beat a final fantasy game four seeds ahead of it? Lttp is the second most popular Zelda game and FF3 is the second most popular FF game. OoT and FF7 are considered to be about equal. Lttp's popularity seems to be closer to OoT's than FF3 is to FF7. This would suggest Lttp can beat FF3. Also, seeding isn't everything. There is some evidence to suggest that Lttp was underseeded. For example the Best game poll on the SNES General Board: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=913&topic=12468707 They have collected a couple hundred votes and the results closely match the seeding of the SNES games, EXCEPT for Lttp. --- Do you have any advice for filling out our brackets? ''Never underestimate the true power of fanboyism.'' ~CjayC |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 4:58:04 PM | Message Detail |
| Except
for Starcraft, LttP has to be the most blatant case of underseeding
this time around. I have no idea if it fell to the "It'll make it
anyway, so I'll nominate something else for the SNES" syndrome... but
then again, why would it fall for it and not CT, FF6, etc.? And Solar, forget what I said earlier: I forgot there were a lot of days left. ;) Now that I have my "site" (storage space would be more appropriate), I'll save this topic once it's 500'd. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: redline15 | Posted: 3/20/2004 5:00:55 PM | Message Detail |
| i have seen the kefka character contest argument before...but i don't trust it too much. kefka was ten seeds below ff6...so i doubt he represents the game very well... the other arguments are new to me however. which poll indicates that lttp and oot are almost equal? ...and how old is it...? by the way... i'm concerned about this year's seeding not because ff6 is above lttp...but because of how far ahead it is. that and the fact that most chrono trigger nominators probably had ff6 as their second choice... |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 3/20/2004 5:04:29 PM | Message Detail |
| Kefka
performed exactly like a 12-seed last year, true. However, I don't
think anyone else could've represented the game better. Those who
played the game worship him as the greatest villain of all time. Besides, board hype is not something to trust 100%. Last year, everyone said Kefka was going to give Pac-Man the beating of his life, then give Crono a run for his money and maybe even pull a SFF win. Plus, don't forget... if we went by Summer Contest numbers, FF6 would lose in the first round. So we're actually already generous in our assumption of FF6 >>> Kefka. --- SpC2K4 Status --- Winner: FF7 --- Finalist: CT --- Semifinalists: SMB3, LoZ:WW |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 3/20/2004 5:06:33 PM | Message Detail |
| which poll indicates that lttp and oot are almost equal? Not almost equal, just closer than FF3 is to FF7: What's your favorite Zelda game?(4/12/2003) http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=1225 Which Final Fantasy title is your all-time favorite?(11/20/2003) http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=1443 --- Do you have any advice for filling out our brackets? ''Never underestimate the true power of fanboyism.'' ~CjayC |
| From: redline15 | Posted: 3/20/2004 5:21:58 PM | Message Detail |
| actually...these might be closer comparisons: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=1180 http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=1178 but even there ff6 does much worse than lttp... ...however... ...20000 more people voted in the final fantasy poll. so this might speak more for ff7's strength than ff6's weakness... still...thanks team rocket elite... that's certainly something to think about... |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/20/2004 8:01:41 PM | Message Detail |
| Quite
simply there is no one character from FF6 that can represent it as a
whole. Kefka is loved by many as being a very awesome badguy, but on
the same token when a character is that bad they also invoke extreme
hatred. Likewise there is no one hero in that game. If you ask people
who the hero of FF6 is some will say Terra, some will sake Locke, and
some may even say Edgar or Celes or anyone else... and if you ask who
their favorites are half (that pick a good guy, and not Kefka) may say
Shadow, but we've seen how favorites perform in the contest, so who
knows if Shadow would do well. The point is, there is no one character
that the entire fanbase will get behind because they are all good,
strong, diverse characters... but when you are looking at the game as a
whole that's no longer a disadvantage. Instead of trying to pick one
aspect in an attempt to please all of the fans of the game you have
every aspect that pleases the fans of the game. FF6 will do much better
than Kefka. --- I`ve become sort of a Chichiri fan since then. - UltimaterializerX |
| From: nh82 | Posted: 3/20/2004 11:46:16 PM | Message Detail |
| Does
anyone have the raw data that may be used for odds calculation? I can't
seem to find CjayC's odds or the prediction percentages on
solarshadow's site... or am I just looking in the wrong place? Good to see we're back on contest discussion track btw - have actually been lurking in this topic and its equivalents since SC2k2, and have only just felt the urge to post myself! :D Just shows what a good job discussing you guys tend to do, I suppose. |
| From: torey luvullo | Posted: 3/21/2004 6:08:02 AM | Message Detail |
| are we certain that ceej uses purely mathematical formulae for setting his odds? maybe he takes all the numbers into account, then simply sets a morning line based upon his best sense of who is most likely to win. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/21/2004 6:32:30 AM | Message Detail |
| Does
anyone have the raw data that may be used for odds calculation? I can't
seem to find CjayC's odds or the prediction percentages on
solarshadow's site... The odds are on solarshadow's site: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/odds.html And the prediction percentages are also available there, though CJayC only gave these out for the winners (which means we can only infer the losers' percentages for the 1st round): http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/stats.html An interesting note about the odds: I summed up CJayC's odds for all the characters...and they added up to less than 1! The sum was only .9132, which isn't even all that close to 1. In fact, it actually came closer to 1 if simply divided by the larger number, instead of by the sum (e.g., Link would have odds of 11.1%=1/9, rather than 10%=1/(9+1) which is what is should be for 9:1 odds). This way sums up to .9837, when it should sum up to a lot more since it's incorrect. Now I'm really wondering what the **** Ceej did. I think maybe he translated his percentage odds into "Vegas style" incorrectly...? btw - have actually been lurking in this topic and its equivalents since SC2k2, and have only just felt the urge to post myself! :D Just shows what a good job discussing you guys tend to do, I suppose. Welcome aboard, look forward to hearing more from you :-) --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: cyko | Posted: 3/21/2004 7:01:05 AM | Message Detail |
| poll from 2002 about "Who Is Your Favorite FF 3/6 character?" http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=847 as you can see, th favorite characters are pretty spread around. personally, i think that Shadow would do much better in a character contest than Kefka. i mean, look at how the casual vote would go: "hmmmmmm...... do i vote for the cool looking ninja or the weird looking clown-thing?" as much as i do like Kefka, he just doesn't have the looks to get the votes. --- Please go nominate Secret of Mana for SNES. Right Now. A Cheese Legend of Trivia 12 |
| From: creativename | Posted: 3/21/2004 7:20:41 AM | Message Detail |
| Looking through solar's site, I found the following quote: The most exciting match by far looks to be Crono vs. Dante. It's certainly the most even match. They're seeded side by side, their odds are almost exactly the same, and a similar number of entrants chose them to win their first matches. It doesn't get much closer than this. Hah! This literally made me laugh out loud. Oh, how clueless we were back then. I think there's going to be stuff like this happening in this Spring contest too, because we have no experience with it. I keep saying that Final Fantay VII is over-favored, but I don't think it can be emphasized enough. Even though it makes perfect sense to believe that it's the single most likely competitor to win, and currently have it winning in my own bracket, we just don't know enough for any game to be as heavily favored as FF7 is. There was also this: With such similar numbers it could be a very interesting battle if Link and Cloud ever met, but that match would have to take place in the finals so we shouldn't look too far ahead just yet. Oooh...prescience! A year early and a round late though. --- Remember to nominate Frog from Chrono Trigger for Summer Contest 2K4! |
| From: Xenobi | Posted: 3/21/2004 7:39:38 AM | Message Detail |
| Nice topic guys. Really usefull stuff. --- If idiots could fly, Battle.net would be an airport. Welcome to GameFAQs, the land where your opinion doesn't matter. |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 3/21/2004 8:02:51 AM | Message Detail |
| I am ready, thats all I can say! --- Trivia XII: Neo Diehards...SC2K4: Match 1: Go SMB3! "A real gamer...standing tall against fanboys for over 20 years!" |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 3/21/2004 8:52:31 AM | Message Detail |
| Hah! This literally made me laugh out loud. Oh, how clueless we were back then. I'll take that personally. ;) I remember how silly I felt after that match. There are just some things you can't predict by numbers alone. :) Oooh...prescience! A year early and a round late though. Ah, now we're talking! :) Those two have always been the true juggernauts of the summer contests. --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 3/21/2004 8:57:30 AM | Message Detail |
| The discussion continues: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=13214208 --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 3/21/2004 9:05:03 AM | Message Detail |
| part 3 already, eh? --- I`ve become sort of a Chichiri fan since then. - UltimaterializerX |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 3/21/2004 9:07:01 AM | Message Detail |
| Yeah. It's going to take me a week to archive everything. ;) --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
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