| Summer Contest Discussion - Off-Season Topic |
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| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/13/2003 11:52:06 AM | Message Detail |
o_O
Sorry, but fighting games are not popular here. At all. And, did you
notice how there was very little fodder compared to the 2002 and 2003
contests? That makes it hard to fit everyone in the 10s and 11s. That's
why Nightmare was given a 15. Not that it matters, I doubt he'd be able
of winning a match without being severely overseeded.
And as far
as Kasumi goes, 37% against Aeris ain't bad, and whether it's 2002 or
2003 matters little, because her improvement was much less substantial
than the other FF characters for some reason.
---
Found in a Metroid Prime review: You turn into a pinball but pinball's been dead since the 80s. |
| From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 11/13/2003 12:03:32 PM | Message Detail |
slowflake, did your bracket undergo any changes form page 1? i'm bored, and I was gonna review it and stuff.
---
Was nokia trying to prove that something can be made worse than x-box? ~Darkbaconslayer on N-Gage |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/13/2003 12:05:09 PM | Message Detail |
No.
---
Found in a Metroid Prime review: You turn into a pinball but pinball's been dead since the 80s. |
| From: Heroic Tails | Posted: 11/13/2003 12:38:24 PM | Message Detail |
Oh right, I didn't even comment on your bracket, Slowfake. Let's see.
NORTH DIVISION
Kirby/Jill
is a good idea - the outcome of the rematch is far from obvious.
Morrigan being back might be very interesting too; an upset might be
possible here. That's it for the first round.
Bowser/Shadow
will show the true power of the dark hedgehog, and is kind of a villain
version of Mario/Sonic (this one should still be done one year though).
I like it. There might be an upset in the Auron/Ganondorf match too; if
Auron suffered indeed SFF against Cloud, and considering he was
supposed to be stronger than Tidus at some point back then.
Division semifinals and finals. Nothing, except a possible Bowser/Cloud rematch (not good).
EAST DIVISION
Geno
is overseeded imo. But since we don't know really how strong he is, his
first match will be interesting whatever happens. Viewtiful Joe is
another unknown. I'm pretty sure lots of people will overestimate him -
I may be wrong though. Knuckles should win anyway.
Second round. Squall/Tidus is a good match. Alucard is getting beaten by a different Square character each year, which is funny.
Both semifinals are interesting, and could end in an upset, and the finals is now a tradition of the contest.
Very good division overall.
SOUTH DIVISION
Crash
has finally the seed he deserves. Yuna/Lara Croft should be very close
(good choice of seeds). Two new characters battling each other ? Good
for unpredictability, but I'd still separate them. New characters are a
blessing, let's not waste two of them in the same match. :) Poor
Ghaleon... But at least he's there. Aya Brea is back, although I still
have no idea who she is; against Luigi, this is very unpredictable.
Lots of new characters in this division.
Second round. Frog/Ryu is still interesting. After all, we don't know anything about Frog's popularity.
One semifinals is a no-brainer, the other one should be very close. The winner of the whole division is still obvious though.
WEST DIVISION
Tails can win. Good. Still difficult, and most importantly unpredictable. Nothing else very promising in the first round.
Second round. Zelda/Aeris is a very good match-up, although Aeris will probably win.
Sephiroth/Aeris. Yeah, now that's just great. And a rematch everybody wanted this year. Very good.
Once again, the winner of the division is obvious, but that's the price to pay for having 3 godlike characters.
NORTH DIVISION
New 1
Back 1
EAST DIVISION
New 2
Back 1
SOUTH DIVISION
New 4
Back 1
WEST DIVISION
New 2
Back 0
The
repartition of new characters and those who come back is not bad, but
the south division has a little much of these. A little detail, but I
think this matters when going through the contest. Saying new faces
regularly is good.
So, overall, this a good bracket, and I
wouldn't mind at all if it was used next year. Of course, in the end,
we'll only get horrible seeds everywhere...
---
A typo that results in the word "typo" is the greatest typo of them all. - UltimaterializerX
|
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/13/2003 12:49:07 PM | Message Detail |
I
have a problem with creative name's comparison list and thought I might
bring it up. His list is based on the assumption that Link's popularity
hadn't changed from 2k2 to 2k3 which we all know to be unreliable.
Being that Link won 2k2 he had a lot of anti-vote on him that
continously built up making him progressively weaker as the 2k3 contest
went on. The only way to be sure the Link's popularity didn't take a
dive (which it did due to him being heavily anti-voted this year but
not really being anti-voted last year), a situation that would throw
the accuracy of the entire list off, is to make another list using a
comparison with the centerpiece being a character or a match whose
results that we can be certain are unchanged. I hate to bring up such a
controversial subject, but the best possible match up to base this off
of would be Mario/Crono since perentage-wise it was as close as you
could get to being unchanged from one year to the next. I may, if I
find myself with the time and patience to try, do a list based on those
matches... though I havent done one of those comparisons yet so it may
prove to be a bit hard.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: red sox 777 | Posted: 11/13/2003 12:56:07 PM | Message Detail |
About anti-votes on Mario.
Nobody
seems to do really bad against Mario, yet Mario always seems to be able
able to win close matches against characters like Crono. The only
blowout match in 2 yrs. of the contest for Mario was Mario VS. Donkey
Kong. My conclusion is that there is an "anti-vote" against Mario.
However, in matches against the likes of, say, Crono, it doesn't show,
because the many of the Square fans were already anti-voting Mario in
previous matches. The same can be said for Master Chief, who barely
eeked out a win against Felix, but did surprisingly well against Aeris,
who almost beat Sonic.
That said, if it came to Shadow VS.
Zelda, they seem pretty evenly matched to me. I'd pick Zelda simply
because I don't like Shadow.
---
Red Sox Magic Number to enter the playoffs: 153
To Win ALDS: 156 To Win ALCS: 160 To Win World Series: 164 |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/13/2003 1:00:00 PM | Message Detail |
ChichiriMuyo
- you base yourself on wrong assumptions. Link was easily as strong as
last year. He's pretty much equal to Sephiroth, and they beat Samus,
Mario and Megaman by around the same margins. Looking at how these
three are about equal, and last year's Link vs. Mario, Link's anti-vote
doesn't look like a credible explanation for Link's loss.
---
Found in a Metroid Prime review: You turn into a pinball but pinball's been dead since the 80s. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/13/2003 1:19:37 PM | Message Detail |
I
wouldn't say its the entire explanation for why he lost, but it cant
possibly be excluded as a factor. Going into 2k2 Mario was heavily
favored, and as Red Sox pointed out he recieves a great deal of
anti-vote in his match. Being that he was then considered the strongest
character in the contest he gathered a lot of hate weakening him
against unimportant foes such as Morrigan. Then, as he faced Square
characters, he still managed to win with a small victory margine. I
think hate-votes from the square fans could easily be the reason for
this happening. Going into 2k3 Link was now the man to beat, and so
unlike last year where it was Mario, the Nintendo icon, taking a huge
beating just for being who he is, now link too was taking such a
beating. It seems that the character who is expected to be dominant
will be thrown down from their place of high regard. This too omay
happen to CLoud now that he has won, but for that we must wait and see.
But dispite these issues it not the relative strength of Cloud, Link
and Sephiroth that I feel recieve the most misrepresentation by
Creative name's list. As we all know, the farther away from the
character the list is based on that the characters are the less
accurate it becomes. By using Crono/Mario not only are we taking a
factor that in 2k3 is much closer (okay, maybe not a whole lot, but
closer to some characters at least) to the bottom than Link and we are
taking from what would more closely represent a control data since the
results were almost too similar both years. The purpose of using these
two would help define how closely competitors in 2k2 were to 2k3 (duh)
in regards to a matter whose result had not changed. This method would
actually be more helpful in finding out ground how much Link did or did
not lose as well as how much Cloud and Sephiroth did or did not gain
since a direct comparison using those three would make their results
unreliable. If those three are the ones whose change we're most
interested in divining then those three cannot be the entire basis of
the method for finding the change without tainting their data since we
can only compare them on factors which may have changed in ways we cant
realize. And um... stuff.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/13/2003 1:24:04 PM | Message Detail |
Correction,
Link did not take any beatings like Mario did, in fact Mario was still
taking them (Shadow). You'd have expected AiAi to get a good bunch of
joke votes, this being the opener and all, and BANG! Third biggest
blowout in history. 83% against Fox, sooo much better than Cloud did
last year it ain't funny. 65% against Magus is very, very good too, as
is 38% against Samus.
Meanwhile, Mario destroyed Olimar due to
all the anti-vote being deflected towards Olimar. But Shadow made Mario
look bad. Really, really bad. He would never get 45% against Crono or
Megaman or Samus, I'd put money on that.
---
Found in a Metroid Prime review: You turn into a pinball but pinball's been dead since the 80s. |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/13/2003 1:25:00 PM | Message Detail |
This should read 62% against Samus, not 38. My bad.
---
Found in a Metroid Prime review: You turn into a pinball but pinball's been dead since the 80s. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/13/2003 1:44:12 PM | Message Detail |
It
does look good, if you look at it like Seph = Link and remember that
Seph took Samus by 52.64% in 2002... but in 2k2 Link took seph by over
56% and though seph took samus by a fair enough margine. That all adds
up to Link being about the same against Samus... but not against Seph.
Either he lost ground or Seph gained ground and you cant possibly prove
beyond a shadow of a doubt that kingdom hearts had that sort of affect.
If it did have the effect of bringing these characters to new players
(the younger players that would pick up KH but not FF7) then why is it
that they had a rather radical growth yet the hero of KH (which would
not only be backed by the kids whose votes supposedly add to Seph and
Cloud but also the many, many square fans who played KH) get his ass
handed to him on a stick by Aeris, a character that even among Square
fans has collect large amounts of hate. Quite simply put I'm not 100%
sure I believe the KH factor could mean much at all. Aeris just barely
managed 60% agaisnt MC who had all the Xbox hate in the world kicking
him the balls. MC had a rough time against Felix, a character who most
GameFAQers know (nor care) nothing of, yet he could at least stand his
ground (somewhat) to Aeris. If you get the crap beaten out of you by
someone who has a tough time agaisnt a character associated with the
most hated console of its time you don't amount to much. And when you
dont amount to much how can the game you are from amount to much
either. Sora is directly associated with KH and any love for KH would
cause love for him... he didnt get much. That being, if he is weak, his
game is weak, and if his game is weak how could it possibly have that
great of an effect on a character only making a minor appearance... a
character most of the kids playing the game wouldnt have the time and
patience to get to.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/13/2003 1:44:54 PM | Message Detail |
Totally ranting there, forgot my whole points, other than Link may have lost more than Cloud and Seph gained.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/13/2003 1:49:46 PM | Message Detail |
In
addition, obviously Link wouldnt gather as much hate as Mario because
so many people had a lot riding on him and his potential victory. This
kept bracket voters from going agaisnt him... and while bracket voters
seem like a small portion of the voters they are obviously the only
ones with enough interest to cheat in favor of a given character making
their influence (although unfairly) stronger than the numbers would
lead you to believe. Rather its by cheating or by recruiting voters the
bracket voters do what they can to win. Also, winning in 2k2 doesnt
mean as much as being (arguably) the greatest video game icon ever.
Being in such a lofty possition bring great jealousy and hatred... and
anti-votes. More so than winning the summer contest.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/13/2003 2:16:01 PM | Message Detail |
Sephiroth
obviously increased. A lot. Just ask Megaman. But I still believe Cloud
improved more, since he was behind Sephiroth in 2002 and actually beat
him this year... him beating Link makes sense. I think he would have
gotten Link down to 59-60% at best back then.
Don't forget that
Cloud vs. Sonic pointed to a larger margin in Link vs. Cloud. That may
be the kind of effect you'd expect from bracket-voters, but still, Link
didn't gather much hate with last year's victory.
---
Found in a Metroid Prime review: You turn into a pinball but pinball's been dead since the 80s. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/13/2003 2:36:41 PM | Message Detail |
I
asked Mega Man and he said "No comment". I don't deny that seph has
increased a great deal, but I do not think that basing his growth off
of the standings of link will give a perfectly accurate view of how he
did grow. Though a comparison to Mega Man shows it to be a huge jump a
comparison to Link makes that number look much smaller... Well, suffice
it to say no matter how you slice it its difficult to accurately
compare 2k2 and 2k3... Though I do think an alternate perspective would
solidify any numbers of comparison.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/13/2003 3:11:33 PM | Message Detail |
Megaman
overperformed in 2002. Easy as that. There has never been as much hype
in a character as there was in Megaman after the Ms. Pac-Man match.
This board was just one big "Wouldn't it be cool if Megaman beat
Sephiroth?" and everyone bought into the hype, praying for an upset.
Without that, Megaman would have done somewhere around what Samus did.
---
Found in a Metroid Prime review: You turn into a pinball but pinball's been dead since the 80s. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/13/2003 3:15:07 PM | Message Detail |
I
dunno... Mega Man seemed to be underrated this year... very few people
even had him beating snake though I knew full well it was the
inevitable outcome. Perhaps in 2k4 he will finally stabilize... Still
can't figure out how people expected him to lose to Snake, the eternal
underperformer.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/13/2003 3:17:44 PM | Message Detail |
Answer:
people didn't expect him losing to Snake as much as him losing to Zelda
or Lara Croft. That's where nearly half the brackets had him stopping.
Stunning, I know. I think Zelda... could this mean most of the 75% of
the brackets that had Magus losing before round 3 picked Ganondorf to
get there?
---
Found in a Metroid Prime review: You turn into a pinball but pinball's been dead since the 80s. |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/13/2003 3:25:41 PM | Message Detail |
I
can't imagine anyone stupid enough to think Mega would lose that
early... perhaps they were the people who had not seen 2k2... at all...
and had their skulls beat in with a rock.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/13/2003 3:33:28 PM | Message Detail |
I
was stunned to find out just over 50% of the bracketmakers had him
going to round 3, where a lot more people had him losing to Vercetti.
These MUST be the people who weren't there last year.
It seems,
though, that the percentages you got aren't remembered much, unless
there's a lot of controversy, which wasn't the case with MM/Seph I.
It's who you beat and who you lost to that seems to count. Beating Ms.
Pac-Man and Serious Sam before losing to Sephiroth... bleh, even CATS
would be able to do that.
---
Found in a Metroid Prime review: You turn into a pinball but pinball's been dead since the 80s. |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 11/13/2003 6:33:47 PM | Message Detail |
Well,
I decided to do a comparison of all characters in 2002 to those of
2003. Of course those characters would've had to been in the contest
BOTH years. I decided to put them together by divisions from 2002.
Later I'm going to classify them by divisions from 2003. In this way we
can see if there are any tends. Oh, and I'm going to do it for both
mine and creativename's lists...sorry if it's not so fancy.
Yeah, I'm just going to round differences to the nearest .5%. No complaining!
Example: Mario: -5%.
This means Mario had a value 10% (in relation to Link's value) lower in 2003 than 2002.
creativename's Rankings
North Division
Mario: 1%
Cloud Strife: 14%
Duke Nukem: 1%
Donkey Kong: 11.5%
Alucard: 6.5%
Pikachu: -4.5%
Tails: .5%
Fox: -.5%
East Division
Lara Croft: =
Solid Snake: .5%
Gordon Freeman: 7% (my goodness, Gordon DOUBLED)
Dante: 2.5%
Crono: .5%
Knuckles: -1.5%
Ryo Hazuki: -5%
Squall: 8.5%
South Division
Pac-Man: -5%
Link: =
JIll Valentine: -4.5%
Max Payne: 2.5%
Scorpion: -1.5%
Bomberman: -4%
Raziel: -4.5%
Kirby: 1%
West Division
Sonic: -5.5%
Crash Bandicoot: -1%
Ryu: -4.5%
Samus: -3%
Mega Man: -4%
Sephiroth: 6.5%
Tidus: 1.5%
Ken: -7%
CATS: 3%
Notice
how in the North and East divisions, they seem too HIGH in 2003
compared to 2002, while the South and West divisions seems too LOW
compared to 2002.
And FYI, the difference in my rankings list is that...
1. It uses a different (simpler) math formula.
2.
The character values tend to be higher than creativename's, especially
for the characters that lose more indirectly. (i.e. very indirect would
be simply a character losing to a character, who loses to a character,
etc., who loses to Link)
Meh, I'm one quarter of the way through...actually, the rest should go faster...
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 11/13/2003 6:47:40 PM | Message Detail |
Now using divisions of 2003...oops, and I think I missed Aeris in my previous message...well, she's 4% higher.
North Division
Link: =
Samus: -3%
Tidus: 1.5%
Squall: 8.5%
Pikachu: -4.5%
Fox: -.5%
Crash Bandicoot: -1%
JIll Valentine: -4.5%
East Division
Cloud Strife: 14%
Sonic: -5.5%
Tails: .5%
Scorpion: -1.5%
Aeris: 4%
Ken: -7%
CATS: 3%
South Division
Mario: 1%
Sephiroth: 6.5%
Kirby: 1%
Crono: .5%
Pac-Man: -5%
Alucard: 6.5%
Gordon Freeman: 7%
Max Payne: 2.5%
Bomberman: -4%
Raziel: -4.5%
West Division
Solid Snake: .5%
Mega Man: -4%
Dante: 2.5%
Ryu: -4.5%
Donkey Kong: 11.5%
Lara Croft: =
Knuckles: -1.5%
Duke Nukem: 1%
Ryo Hazuki: -5%
No real trends I can see here...
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 11/13/2003 6:51:20 PM | Message Detail |
Forget doing it all with my rankings list...it's not all THAT different.
And if you notice any other trends, please mention them. =p
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 11/13/2003 7:10:04 PM | Message Detail |
Let's
see...if Sonic gets 53% against Aeris, while Master Chief managed 40%
on her, and Felix manages 47% on MC, then that means Felix gets roughly
35% against Sonic purely by the math. Obviously Felix would get much
lower than that. Isaac got 25% against Samus, so I'd say Isaac would do
slightly better against Sonic...maybe 27%. I actually think Felix was a
bit stronger than Isaac thanks to a much better pic (which would affect
MC far more than Sonic or Samus, BTW). Also, Sonic is a bit below Samus
on the popularity scale, which makes Felix look a little better. So
with that in mind, I'm guessing the anti-vote amount of Master Chief
was 5-8% higher than Samus'.
I won't even try to estimate the anti-vote amount with Mario, though.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 11/13/2003 7:23:28 PM | Message Detail |
My question to Chichiri, and any others who believe the anti-champ vote was important: Where is the evidence?
Surely if there was any anti-Link sentiment large enough to swing a
match by the margin we're talking about here (Link 60, Cloud 40 --->
Cloud 52, Link 48), wouldn't it have show up in other matches?
Shouldn't Fox, Magus, and Samus, all of whom just plain sucked against
him, have profited at least as much as Cloud supposedly did?
Particularly Samus, who many touted as "the one" to bring Link down
this year.
By using Crono/Mario... we are taking from what
would more closely represent a control data since the results were
almost too similar both years.
Ah, this again. I also had my
doubts about creativename's assumption that Link 2K2 = Link 2K3, as you
may have read in the previous Stats topic. My guess was based on his
new game, Wind Waker, which surely must have done something for (or against?) him. Also, it led to some screwy conclusions like MP hurt Samus while DMC2 helped Dante.
I
had thought Pac-Man would be a good character to take as the control,
but then realized the Crono-Kefka numbers would skew the 2K3 results
under that system.
I also considered Mario, but figured he would
make a bad choice. The more directly he is involved in the calculation,
the less accurate it gets, simply because characters' performance
against him is not generally considered an accurate representation of
their overall power.
I discounted Crono because, while he is undeniably unchanged, all roads to him lead through Mario both years, and so he inherits all of the inaccuracy Mario generates.
Perhaps
the appropriate guess would be Mega Man 2K2 = Mega Man 2K3? We need
someone who isn't controversial (and what's better at that that
non-Nintendo, non-Square?) and who is established enough to remain
unchanged from year to year (basically, lots of games released and
being really old). Mega Man and his games have remained unchanged since
the dawn of time. The only problem with MM may be that he lost to the
same opponent both years.
If [KH] did have the effect of
bringing [Cloud, Sephiroth, and Aeris] to new players then why is it
that they had a rather radical growth yet the hero of KH get his ass
handed to him on a stick by Aeris?
That, along with
Alucard's apparent ability to rise to the occasion, is IMO the bigest
mystery of the contest. Anyone else have any ideas?
Without [MM hype], Megaman would have done somewhere around what Samus did.
Wha?? Apart from the first 15 minutes, the board exerts no power over matches whatsoever.
I
can't imagine anyone stupid enough to think Mega would lose that
early... perhaps they were the people who had not seen 2k2... at all...
and had their skulls beat in with a rock.
There were
undeniably a bunch of those... er, minus the rock... I think MM is just
underestimated. Last year, everyone was shocked when he (not any of the
"big names") logged those monster blowouts and gave Sephiroth ("a lock
to win the West," they said) a huge scare. His fans were pulling for
him, of course, but even they didn't expect him to actually do what he almost did.
could this mean most of the 75% of the brackets that had Magus losing before round 3 picked Ganondorf to get there?
I dunno. I suspect Magus suffered a lot in picks among the ignorant just for being given the lowest seed in his 4-pack.
while
bracket voters seem like a small portion of the voters they are
obviously the only ones with enough interest to cheat in favor of a
given character making their influence (although unfairly) stronger
than the numbers would lead you to believe.
This is something I could just never get a feel for at all.
Question of the Moment: What fraction of the total vote does the bracket vote make up?
---
The GameFAQs Summer Contest 2003 Fanfiction Project: http://members.aol.com/gcbfiles/ffproj.html |
| From: Cromage | Posted: 11/13/2003 8:05:53 PM | Message Detail |
If
[KH] did have the effect of bringing [Cloud, Sephiroth, and Aeris] to
new players then why is it that they had a rather radical growth yet
the hero of KH get his ass handed to him on a stick by Aeris?
My
take: KH did more than strengthen the characters that were in it--it
strengthened the whole genre. (an uneven boost, admittedly. If Square
doesn't put in non-FF characters (don't know too much about KH2),
they're missing a HUGE opportunity to resell their games) Now the same
people who loved KH are also loving FF7. And it comes down to which
character you like more. Genre, game, and company are now irrelevent.
Even details of personality are irrelevent--both characters are
good-hearted and "heroic" in their own respects. When comparing two
similar characters, the results just CAN'T be close. It doesn't sound
logical--but it's what I've observed. Somewhere out there, there's a
physical body of voters, generally thinking along the same subconscious
lines.
Link/Samus was close because of anti-champ votes, and
difference in the type of games. (i.e. Link is more likely to attract
fantasy sword-wielding characters, Samus appeals to the shooters. Clear
lines are drawn, thus relying on people's gaming despositions to
determine the outcome. The results reflect the split. This is also why
I didn't buy into the Samus over Link hype--there just wouldn't be
enough Link antivotes. Anti-champ was good but insufficient. Someone to
take down Link would need a recent incredibly-well-selling release, a
different genre, AND a different company. Gee.....I WONDER who fits the
bill... >_>)
Cloud/Sephiroth was close because of their
uniqueness of character, and was a nice deviation from the norm in its
own respect. It also shows us that maybe villain over hero victories
are not as unlikely as we think......
Without anti-champ
votes, I think Link/Cloud would have been more like 51-49 Link, or even
50.5/49.5. Very small margin there (I'd put the strength of the
anti-champs at maybe a little more than 7,000, to chose a random
number) But the same voters that would care about anti-champ (although
still like Link) would notice that until Link/Samus, he was facing
largely low-seeded characters. To make things worse for poor Fox, his
only release in the last 6 years was essentially a Zelda-clone with
fur. On the same system as WW.
---
Furopon World: Unofficial furry board of GameFAQs. No trolls allowed.
I had a [strong] grip on reality, but then the handle broke off. ~ Lollybomb |
| From: Cromage | Posted: 11/13/2003 8:07:41 PM | Message Detail |
And as to your question...... I'd say anywhere from 5-15%. Enough, certainly, to tip a close match.
---
Furopon World: Unofficial furry board of GameFAQs. No trolls allowed.
I had a [strong] grip on reality, but then the handle broke off. ~ Lollybomb |
| From: Seadragon76 | Posted: 11/14/2003 9:22:01 AM | Message Detail |
Believe
it or not, Snowflake. I did notice this year that the punching bags
were far less then the year before. I'm just saying that Nightmare
might deserve a 10 or 11 depending on how far SC2 goes.
As for
Kasumi...37% against Aeris was alright, but I feel that since people do
hate DOA a lot, it'll be much worst against Zero. Now to the other two
regions....
South-
Best 1st Round Matchup: I still remember
the fits Aya gave me two years ago when I picked Terry to knock her
off. She stands a great chance to possibly beat Luigi after his
disappointing showing in this year's tourny.
Worst 1st Round
Matchup(s): Why are Lara Croft and Crash Bandicoot still around? I
beginning to think they are the punching bags I've mentioned before.
Lara has absolutely no shot against Yuna and Crash has crash and burned
so it's time to retire them and get some new blood.
West-
Best
1st Round Matchup: Two beleaguered stars face off as Dante and Scorpion
meet here. I think it depends on what game the people thought was more
disappointing: Devil May Cry 2 or Mortal Kombat: Deadly Alliance?
Worst
1st Round Matchup: Gordon is still in this? I know the people are
clamoring for Half-Life 2, but PC games just aren't respected here as
their console rivals (It may depend if Kerrigan has even a small role
in Starcraft: Ghost, but it won't matter against Samus). Gordon, I
think, is probably the best example of cannon fodder in the bracket.
---
Seadragon76 Sez: Check out my Mid-Major Top 10 on the NCAA Football 2004 board or I'll TP your house! |
| From: bj good | Posted: 11/14/2003 10:06:24 AM | Message Detail |
don't
know if somebody has said this already but I think Robonik should be in
it. I've nominated him before and he is popular enough. Sweettooth too.
---
By the way, bj good, your posts speak of wisdom as well as your name. - sakbato88 |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/14/2003 10:12:27 AM | Message Detail |
I
don't think Mega Man is a good choice to replace Link for one reason,
it could extremely exagerate the growth of Sephiroth and Cloud. In 2k2
MM/Seph was close, in 2k3 Seph had it with both arms tied behind his
back... and a leg cramp... and still winning by a mile. Link anti-vote
didn't kick in early on but built as he went on. Baracket voters
wouldn't allow him to lose early on and screw him out of points, but if
they had someone else tkaing it all they'd be sure to take him out as
soon as possible. Magus had to be stomped out, and fast, because a lot
of bracket voters didn't expect him to even make it to Link. In another
division with another opponent Magus may have had a better chance.
Again, Samus would have been too early for him to lose causing too many
lost points. The match with Cloud was too perfect for some users.
On
KH... we still can't really prove its effect. An issue that should
reall have been brought back up in the matter is that Clouds strength
COULD have been cut off the year before by the PGC voters. Can't really
say that was a strong factor for certain either, but it could have
shown him to be weaker than he was thus discounting the possibility
that his strength grew at all. Since you seemed to have pointed out
that Alucard rises to the occasion why not try him as a basis? He
certainly hasn't had any drastic changes the last two years. He crushed
Duke in round 2 of 2k2 a lot like he crushed bomberman this year: 61.5%
against duke, 64.45 against b-man... Tails in r1 of sc2k2 went down a
lot like kirby in 2k3 rd2: 52.2% on Kirby, 54.3% on Tails... and He got
crushed by a ff7 character in the sweet 16 both times: 30.36% agaisnt
cloud in 2k2 and 27.72% against Seph in 2k3. Seems fairly steady
against ff7 characters and the less popular (though still loves by
many) platformers as well as crushing fodder fairly well.
We may
not solve that first mystery, but I'd have to say the second isnt that
hard. Alucard is mid-level strong. Castlevania is a classic series and
he happened to star in the most popular release the game has probably
ever had. Plus he comes off as a badass. He'll crush weaklings just as
well as most anyone above him but they will crush him easily because
they are like gods in this contest (powerwise). I'd like to see him
face Zero or Magus directly (assuming Magus' power wasnt highly cut off
by his low sed causing confidence in his performance to drop)
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/14/2003 10:20:12 AM | Message Detail |
Robotnik
would likely do worse than Tails. Tails has not yet gotten a chance to
face someone that he can beat in the first round... People may have
thought he had a chance agaisnt Alucard in 2k2 but his performance this
year and last should have fully disolved any such thoughts... and I
feel sorry for anyone who trully believed he had a chance agaisnt
Auron. Picking him in your bracket cause you like him and wish he would
win is one thing, but thinking that he could tackle the (arguably) most
popular FFX representative is silly. We'll have to hope he gets a fair
shot next year. Robotnik, however, is not to Sonic as Bowser is to
Mario and Ganon to Link. He doesn't hold as much strength. Mario is
weakened because he is greatly loved, sonic is weakend because he isn't
quite as powerful as Mario. In a match outside of GameFAQs Mario would
easily take sonice but here its unpredictable. Nevertheless Mario is
often times dispised by people who love Bowser and Ganon may have been
voted for by people who would enevitably anti-vote Link. Robotnik would
just be considered another Sonic character and would recieve a portion
of the Blue Blur's votes like all of his comrads do. Very few people
are going to hate sonic but love Robotnik. The two certainly don't have
a Mario/Bowser relationship to work off of despite being hero and
villain.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 11/14/2003 12:10:23 PM | Message Detail |
some thoughts on the mystery of SPM.
If
[KH] did have the effect of bringing [Cloud, Sephiroth, and Aeris] to
new players then why is it that they had a rather radical growth yet
the hero of KH get his ass handed to him on a stick by Aeris?
I
admit I can't italicize junk so there it is. Well, having played KH and
thinking it's one of the best games ever, in my opinion, it's really
easy to see why Sora did so bad.
I'll just mark *SPOILERS* in case any one decides to be all technical, but whatever.
*SPOILERS*
Sora
really isn't that enticing of a character. He's pretty much a kid, and
that can't help, he's pretty cliche and lame, that can't help, and, as
well, Aeris is in KH and she is Aeris. Sora is always like, lalalala
I'm going to save the world, and all the classic lines and stuff, which
is ok, but I dunno it's just bleh. The only thing in that game that
would make you like Sora would be maybe the ending, but aside from that
he's pretty meh.
Kairi may have been a better choice, because, well, *SPOILERS*
if Aeris can have her "pity" votes, than Kairi can most certainly have hers.
Ansem may have been better to, because he can draw on the "I'm a mysterious magical villain" qualities.
Riku may have been the best bet though, because he's pretty much a main character, and he also benefits from the ending.
Another
ongoing question was why didn't kh boost Aeris as much? Well, she isn't
a main character like squall, cloud, or well kind of sephy, and she
doesn't have a cool or definitive role in the game either.
and um that should do it.
---
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| From: DaruniaTheKing | Posted: 11/14/2003 12:50:03 PM | Message Detail |
About
characters that remained unchanged both years: What about, say, Max
Payne? He faced Scorpion and Sephiroth (Which were in the tourney both
years), definately NOT improved from one year to other (Had not the
ability of do it so), is not Nintendo nor Square... I think he might
work.
Him, or CATS. If CATS was a joke in 2002, he is still a joke in 2003. Simple as that.
Optional dumb question:
Had Crash and Link their places switched in the 2002, who would have
taked the South? What about Link? How would his popularity gotten after
suffering the attack of three elites? Would have won the championship?
Would Mario crush him via anti-votes? Or Megaman? What do you think?
|
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 11/14/2003 2:39:25 PM | Message Detail |
Aeris'
popularity was arguably just below TIdus' last year, so Aeris probably
would've only managed 40-41% on Sonic. Well, you interpret things from
there.
About characters that remained unchanged both years: What about, say, Max Payne?
Well,
Max Payne 2 is a very new game, and Max seems to have had a radical
makeover, as well. I guess he's out. As for CATS, I'm sure the fad is
dying as time goes by...
Bah, I could come up with an argument
for almost any character. Also, there have been almost changes in
certain characters who seem like they should hardly change at all...see
Alucard (who rose), Ryu, and Pac-Man(who fell)
Had Crash and Link their places switched in the 2002, who would have taked the South?
Jill Valentine, most likely. She got the highest percentage on him.
For
Link's fate, I don't think it would have changed. In fact, Cloud had
one of the harder roads to the championship. Besides, wouldn't the
angry fans have stopped Cloud from winning the championship, even if
Sephiroth was his opponent? Bah, I don't know why I'm even talking
here...I know exactly what the response to this will be.
---
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"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/14/2003 4:03:30 PM | Message Detail |
In fact, Cloud had one of the harder roads to the championship
I
don't know what year you're talking about, but it's unlikely to be
2002. Though I admit if Cloud remained unchanged, things would have
been a hell of a lot more interesting in the East. Auron, Bowser and
Sonic would likely all have gotten in the 40s against Cloud, for
starters... no wonder these three were hyped so much for the upset.
And
it's scary to think what would've happened if Link wasn't in the South
last year, indeed. Jill in the Final 4? Link vs. Sephiroth in ROUND
TWO? Yowza.
---
TEJELPAMMED: Know your roots in the morning before work, with added vitamin fad. -Lettuce Kefka on TEJELPAMMED cereals |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/14/2003 4:27:43 PM | Message Detail |
By
saying Alucard's populartiy grew are you basing that on creative name's
list? Again, any results based off of Link are subject to any gain or
loss by Link which we cant judge if we use him as the central figure in
the comparative list. Without knowing the difference in Link's standing
we can't say how accurate that list is. But here's something we cna
look at with Alucard. In 2k2 he did better against Cloud then he did
agaisnt Seph in 2k3. This would indicate that the two did get stronger
yet Alucard's %'s still stayed roughly the same in his matches... If
Alucard can be proven to be stronger then Cloud and Sephiroth would
likely have to have grown far more than anyone has yet guessed at.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:01:57 PM | Message Detail |
Since Kirby actually outperformed him in 2002, it is very possible.
---
TEJELPAMMED: Know your roots in the morning before work, with added vitamin fad. -Lettuce Kefka on TEJELPAMMED cereals |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:10:02 PM | Message Detail |
I`ll
predict your bracket Snowflake, as it`s the best pseudo-2004 bracket
I`ve seen. I`m not going to give any reasons for my predictions unless
people try to think I`m wrong, which I`m not ;)
NORTH DIVISION
/ (1) Cloud Strife
\ (16) Ness
/ (8) Kirby
\ (9) Jill Valentine
/ (5) Bowser
\ (12) KOS-MOS
/ (4) Shadow the Hedgehog
\ (13) Kefka Palazzo (Kefka has a last name??)
/ (6) Auron
\ (11) Claire Redfield
/ (3) Ganondorf Dragmire
\ (14) Vyse
/ (7) Donkey Kong
\ (10) Morrigan Aensland
/ (2) Megaman
\ (15) Nightmare
EAST DIVISION
/ (1) Mario
\ (16) CATS
/ (8) Geno
\ (9) Master Chief
/ (5) Squall Leonhart
\ (12) Sam Fisher
/ (4) Tidus
\ (13) Ken Masters
/ (6) Knuckles the Echidna
\ (11) Viewtiful Joe
/ (3) Zero
\ (14) Kasumi
/ (7) Alucard
\ (10) Wario
/ (2) Crono
\ (15) Pikachu
SOUTH DIVISION
/ (1) Link
\ (16) Crash Bandicoot
/ (8) Yuna
\ (9) Lara Croft
/ (5) Frog
\ (12) Captain Falcon (why is he in the bracket?)
/ (4) Ryu
\ (13) Bomberman
/ (6) Yoshi
\ (11) Pac-Man
/ (3) Janus "Magus" Zeal
\ (14) Ghaleon
/ (7) Luigi
\ (10) Aya Brea
/ (2) Solid Snake
\ (15) Ridley
WEST DIVISION
/ (1) Sephiroth
\ (16) Gordon Freeman
/ (8) Sora
\ (9) Miles "Tails" Prower (tough call, but think of it as Aeris vs Auron)
/ (5) Zelda
\ (12) Fox McCloud
/ (4) Aeris Gainsborough (NO! Aeris is supposed to be an 11 seed in the east!)
\ (13) Duke Nukem
/ (6) Tommy Vercetti
\ (11) Ramza Beoulve
/ (3) Sonic the Hedgehog
\ (14) Mewtwo
/ (7) Dante
\ (10) Scorpion
/ (2) Samus Aran
\ (15) Sarah Kerrigan (good call of character, but she doesn`t belong here)
---
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| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:15:57 PM | Message Detail |
NORTH DIVISION
/ (1) Cloud Strife
\ (8) Kirby
/ (5) Bowser
\ (4) Shadow the Hedgehog
/ (6) Auron
\ (3) Ganondorf Dragmire
/ (7) Donkey Kong
\ (2) Megaman
EAST DIVISION
/ (1) Mario
\ (9) Master Chief
/ (5) Squall Leonhart
\ (4) Tidus
/ (6) Knuckles the Echidna
\ (3) Zero
/ (7) Alucard
\ (2) Crono
SOUTH DIVISION
/ (1) Link
\ (8) Yuna
/ (5) Frog
\ (4) Ryu
/ (6) Yoshi
\ (3) Janus "Magus" Zeal
/ (7) Luigi
\ (2) Solid Snake
WEST DIVISION
/ (1) Sephiroth
\ (9) Miles "Tails" Prower
/ (5) Zelda
\ (4) Aeris Gainsborough (good match!)
/ (6) Tommy Vercetti
\ (3) Sonic the Hedgehog
/ (10) Scorpion
\ (2) Samus Aran
---
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| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:18:38 PM | Message Detail |
NORTH DIVISION
/ (1) Cloud Strife
\ (4) Shadow the Hedgehog
/ (6) Auron
\ (2) Megaman
EAST DIVISION
/ (1) Mario
\ (5) Squall Leonhart
/ (3) Zero
\ (2) Crono (tough call, but too many would want the big rematch)
SOUTH DIVISION
/ (1) Link
\ (5) Frog
/ (3) Janus "Magus" Zeal
\ (2) Solid Snake
WEST DIVISION
/ (1) Sephiroth
\ (4) Aeris Gainsborough
/ (3) Sonic the Hedgehog
\ (2) Samus Aran (people are over 2002)
---
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| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:22:05 PM | Message Detail |
NORTH DIVISION
/ (1) Cloud Strife
\ (2) Megaman
EAST DIVISION
/ (1) Mario
\ (2) Crono
SOUTH DIVISION
/ (1) Link
\ (2) Solid Snake
WEST DIVISION
/ (1) Sephiroth
\ (2) Samus Aran
Good
calls for the 1 and 2 seeds, as your Elite 8 would feature all of them.
Sonic/Samus may give a good show, but with Samus` recent hits, Sonic`s
odds suck. As for the Eliter 8 matchups themselves, the obvious
showdown is Mario/Crono`s rematch. Mario got lucky twice, but with the
absolute throng of people that want to see Crono beat his fat ass,
Mario will not be able to pull that off three times, especially after
the petition I`ll have written up before next year`s contest, which
mostly involves a set-in-stone starting time for each match. You saw
what Sephiroth did to Mario after Mario`s little underhanded victory in
2003, didn`t you?
---
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| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:23:38 PM | Message Detail |
FINAL FOUR
/ (1) Cloud Strife
\ (2) Crono
/ (1) Link
\ (1) Sephiroth
You
know as well as I do that the Link/Sephiroth match will come down to
the picture. If we see the real Link, there is no one in this contest
who can beat him. If we`re stuck with that cel-shaded piece of ****,
then both Sephiroth and Cloud can take him down.
---
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| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:24:22 PM | Message Detail |
FINALS
/ (1) Cloud Strife
\ (1) Link
Again, it rests solely on the picture. Link wins with a real Link pic.
---
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| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:48:03 PM | Message Detail |
Kirby
lost first round to Jill 53/47 who then beat Bomberman 58/42. Alucard
beat B-man 64.5/35.5 and Kirby 52/48 this year. If Kirby lost first
round I don't see how he could have outperformed Alucard last year who
made it to the 3rd round. Not to mention Jill was murdered by Link who
we are currently assuming is roughly equal to Seph who beat Alucard by
a smaller margin (if my brain doesnt decieve me... I don't wann do the
math on that one since its not an important matter). If anything this
makes it look possible that Kirby got stronger this year or Alucard got
weaker sine he didn't put up the number the math would have told you to
expect on Kirby. The only factor that could throw that math off that I
haven't mentioned would be bomberman getting seriously weaker which
seems highly unlikely. In fact I dare say I have little to no doubt
that it was indeed Kirby who's strength changed as he was able to
defeat Ramza... something I would not expect him to have done in 2k2
after his defeat at the hands of Jill (I was highly torn between the
two but in the end I took Kirby to win over Ramza because I expected
his platformer roots to be stronger than a character from a Tactics
style game which didn't have but a fraction of the sales of any one
Kirby game). Of course Comparing Jill 2k3 to Jill 2k2 is also supect as
the brutal murder of Claire at the hands of Tidus proved any given FF
lead could take down and given RE heroine on the worst of days. That
being true makes it hard to guage Jill's potential decline which I feel
to be almost non-existant given her easier matchups in 2k2.
Yes,
you can have arguments for any given character to be the basis of
comparison but can you give GOOD ones? I know plenty that we can
automatically throw out (starting with Lara Croft since she seems
unchanged compared to Link therefore negating the possibility of
finding change within him), but who could we (within fair reason) keep?
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:55:12 PM | Message Detail |
That post was the perfect mix of good and bad grammar, and I must read it twice. Hold on.
---
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| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/14/2003 6:06:29 PM | Message Detail |
I believe in a South Division like that Magus might take Snake if MGS3 and Twin Snkes don't give him a SIGNIFICANT boost.
Last year Snake took 56.5% on Aeris, This year Sonic took her by 53%
Ryu lost to Samus last year and Snake this year both 57/43...
Taking
these numbers (plus others I'm sure) it would seem Snake/Samus/Sonic
are all roughly the same and they are all counted in the tried and true
list of characters who will perform up to their seed. Magus highly
outperformed his seeding and with a better seed could invoke more
confidence allowing him a better chance. As much as I hate to say it
sometimes seeding does make a difference in the way people vote. Or at
least in the way some people make their brackets... which effect how
they vote and if they cheat how many votes they may throw at the higher
seed. If 43% of the people have Link going all the way thats 43% of the
cheating bracket voters (statistically speaking) who will desperately
cheat to insure Link's victory over Magus. And in fact it would be more
people since it was 43% having Link go all the way... not going to
magus... What was it, 70-80% having him take that match? To see what
Magus can do we gotta see him in a fair situation going up against
someone other then Link.
I do honestly think that Magus could
take Snake though, unless Twin Snakes and MGS3 (I'm assumning it
features Snake, given the name snake eater and all) are both good
(well, Twin Snakes is sure to be good, but will a remake be effective?)
he may not get a big enough boost to ensure his position. On the other
hand more bracket maker confidence in Magus could spell more votes
(legit and otherwise) for him giving him a better shot.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/14/2003 6:07:41 PM | Message Detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 11/14/2003 5:55:12 PM | Message Detail
That post was the perfect mix of good and bad grammar, and I must read it twice. Hold on.
That defines me perfectly... though its mostly due to me ranting more than anything else.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/14/2003 6:08:23 PM | Message Detail |
Whoa, just notice I made a bit of a pun there, heh.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/14/2003 6:27:31 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 11/14/2003 6:28:58 PM | Message Detail |
Okay,
I'm saying we throw out creative's comparison here (alright, so I don't
really suggest we throw it out entirely)... It doesn't seem possible
that a first round loser could outperform a character who made it to
the third round. In fact 03 proved that Kirby was not superior to
Alucard. This doesnt seem to be a flaw due to the character who is
chosen as the center piece but a flaw in the method itself. Since
Alucard was beaten handily by Cloud who was beaten by Mario who was
beaten quite badly by Link he (Alucard) is made to be worse looking
than he is. The reason for that is probably that L v M was a same
fanbase match that may possibly have been decided by non-nintendo fans
who though Link was cooler (I feel confident that Square fans would
take Link over Mario for several reasons... two of their names start
with the letter "C"). Sorry but just going through Bomberman (who can't
have dropped that much) we can tell that Kirby wasn't able to beat
Alucard ever.
---
Ha! You have been tricked by he who is I! |
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