| Stats & Discussion -- Summer 2003 Contest -- Mark III |
| : | | | | | This Topic has been marked closed. No additional messages may be posted. | | | | Page 9 of 10 | | | From: Heroic Knuckles | Posted: 9/25/2003 11:46:45 AM | Message Detail |
b u m p
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Excelesior! | | From: creativename | Posted: 9/26/2003 1:51:37 AM | Message Detail |
Advent
Children is PWNing all video game discussion at this point in
time...and it only makes sense that it could be a factor in SC2K4.
Since it's currently scheduled for a summer 2004 release, the DVD
should be out in time to make a difference in the late rounds.
Yet
another factor benefitting almost the same crowd that benefitted from
Kingdom Hearts factor in the first place? Seems almost unfair. Of
course, all the other possible factors that were discussed ended up
having no impact on SC2K3, so who knows if this will end up mattering.
Additionally, the "demographic crossover" which probably magnified KH's
impact is unlikely to be present.
I'll also note that no doubt
some will theorize that possible backlash may actually hurt Cloud,
Sephiroth, etc., but in the past backlash has not decreased characters'
popularity levels. So I think this can only help.
I'll also
add my thoughts on Advent Children here: I first heard about it from
the Poll of the Day, and I was just overjoyed. Then I got really
confused, and then learned it wasn't going to be a game...which really
disappointed me.
SquareEnix is really shooting themselves in the
foot here. And sadly, they won't even ever know it--because this will
certainly be wildly successful on its own. It's FF7-2, there's no way
it wouldn't be. However, the fact is an actual game would've been far more successful.
The ideal scenario would have been to make FF7-2 for the PS3
(or whatever the next gen console is called), and release it within a
year of that consoles debut. That would have been absolutely monumental.
That
game would've been guaranteed to sell at least 7+ million copies, and
in fact would have had a chance to surpass Super Mario 64's 11 million
copies sold and become the 4th highest selling game of all-time (behind
Super Mario Bros. 3, Super Mario World, and Super Mario Land for
GameBoy--note that this doesn't count Tetris and the original Super
Mario Bros., since most copies of those were packaged). Final Fantasy
7-2 for the PS3...<sigh> What could have been.
I can't believe how much money Square is throwing away with this movie idea.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/26/2003 4:34:44 AM | Message Detail |
Backlash
isn't, indeed, what it's made out to be. Even if Cloud and Sephiroth
end up being pathetic in that thing, they will still outvote everyone.
Heck, even Dante wasn't affected much by the DMC2 anti-vote.
On
another subject, it's unbelievable how Square has lost it. Ever since
FF7, they haven't pulled the masterpieces they were capable of in the
general opinion. The funniest thing is... their fanbase is still
growing every day. And now... what Creativename said. I get the feeling
they're going to pay for this, just not now.
For now, let's just
look at the PotD and shudder. I know I'm bold by saying this now, but
at this stage Cloud is GUARANTEED to repeat.
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 9/26/2003 1:39:14 PM | Message Detail |
Wait, whoa, whoa, and wait.
Let's not go all chicken little about this just because of one straight-to-video movie.
Since it's currently scheduled for a summer 2004 release, the DVD should be out in time to make a difference in the late rounds.
False.
A game has to have been out for a while to have a noticeable impact in
the polls. A month or more is my guess, based on Jill and REmake. Did
Soul Calibur II help Link? Not in any noticeable way (see: Link-Cloud).
Did Super Mario Sunshine help Mario? No (see: Mario-Crono 2K3 vs.
Mario-Crono 2K2). The earliest Advent Children could make a big
difference is SC2K5... by which point all those other elite 7 guys will
have had a new game apiece at least. Cloud and Sephiroth will be
keeping up with the Joneses at best.
It's been proven already that hype doesn't get votes (see: Yuna and FF X-2, Gordy and Half-Life 2). Heck, it doesn't even get nominations. Two Captains, equally (un)deserving of a 16 seed, and Olimar gets the nod while Falcon gets the shaft.
Additionally, the "demographic crossover" which probably magnified KH's impact is unlikely to be present.
Exactly.
In fact, I really can't imagine this being bought the instant it hits
shelves by anyone but big fans of FF7. You know, the kind of people who
would vote for Cloud and Sephiroth in a popularity contest? I suspect
that the number of votes this will turn to Cloud/Sephiroth's side
against Link (or anyone else, but no one else matters except each
other) will be counted on the fingers of one hand. Give it a year of
availability and that number might approach a grand whopping hundred.
Without adding to your fanbase demographic, a new release is worthless
(see: Wind Waker, Metroid Prime, Devil May Cry 2, Super Mario Sunshine,
Mega Man X7).
I expect SC2, given a year, will help Link out
slightly, because it's a totally different genre from the LoZ series
(and SSB as well, really). And slightly is all he needs... I figure
that will be much more important than Advent Children. Will it be
enough to give him the win over Cloud? I don't know.
Even if Cloud and Sephiroth end up being pathetic in that thing, they will still outvote everyone.
Right.
But if Aeris returns with a role that appeases her haters within the
FF7 community, she could shoot up to the Magus/Sonic level of
popularity (or more!). This is the biggest impact I can see Advent
Children having. But again, that's in 2 years, not 1. Let's see who
appears, and how, in Kingdom Hearts 2, before playing
rate-the-Square-characters...
Okay, there's one more impact I
can see. More FF7 castmembers in the contest. That might happen anyway,
though. And it certainly should. After all, there's no doubt
they are more deserving than, say, AiAi, and could beat him in a match.
If they can win, they should go in! </Johnny Cochran>
At
this point, my prediction is Link in 2004, returning the favor by
busting 17000+ brackets with his win over Cloud wherever they meet.
---
The GameFAQs Summer Contest 2003 Fanfiction Project: http://members.aol.com/gcbfiles/ffproj.html | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/26/2003 2:36:03 PM | Message Detail |
Wow,
Advent Children is an FF7 sequel, huh? I never heard of it until
today...well, that's what having an incredibly busy week does to you.
StopPokingMe,
Thank you for mentioning that a a new game needs to sink in for a while
to really affect these character contests....in fact, I think it's even
longer than a month for that effect to take place, maybe sometimes even
more than a year.
Contrary to popular belief in this topic,
Dante actually performed BETTER this year than he did last year. I
don't mean to get into some boring numbers, but Ryu got 42% against
Samus in 2002, while Dante got a pitiful 33% (I double checked on the
numbers...it's indeed closer to 33% than 34%) against Crono just a week
or two earlier. A huge difference in losing margin against two
characters that are supposed to be fairly even. Last year I'm almost
certain Ryu could've beaten Dante with more than 54%. This makes me
believe that Devil May Cry's popularity has sunk in to the puclic
more(as it's been out 1.5 years by 2003, as opposed to being around 6
months old in the 2002 contest) than it has been negated by DMC2. Tidus
also seemed to look a bit stronger this year, going from .5 years to
1.5 years in age, but I suppose the KH-factor could be blamed for that
(too).
I'm very interested in seeing how Samus will perform by 2004 with that theory in mind. (hey, MP made tons of new Metroid fans!)
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: creativename | Posted: 9/26/2003 2:58:48 PM | Message Detail |
False. A game has to have been out for a while to have a noticeable impact in the polls.
Obvious retort: it's not a game.
Yes,
a game has to be out a while to make a difference--this is because
games are not as "frontloaded" in terms of being bought like, for
instance, movies are. I've made this point in this thread before. It's
common now for movies to get 50% of their total gross opening weekend;
for games, it may take a few months to "diffuse" through the
marketplace. But Advent Children isn't a game, so it's an unknown. It
will probably perform more frontloaded than a typical DVD
release--which take a very long time to hit "saturation"--because it
won't hit theaters first, and because the anticipation level is so
extreme.
It is does come out in mid July or earlier, I think
there is more than enough time for it to make an impact in the late
rounds of SC2K4--if it was ever going to make a difference at all, that
is. Which is up for debate.
Additionally, the "demographic crossover" which probably magnified KH's impact is unlikely to be present.
Exactly. In fact, I really can't imagine this being bought the instant it hits shelves by anyone but big fans of FF7.
Well,
I don't think there's any doubt this will sell millions of copies. In a
way there's probably going to be even more of a crossover overall,
because it is a movie rather than a game. People who never played the
game will probably want to see what all the fuss is about.
But, I don't see that influencing the contest too much, because obviously it's the gamers that matter.
Wow,
Advent Children is an FF7 sequel, huh? I never heard of it until
today...well, that's what having an incredibly busy week does to you.
I don't think anybody had heard of it before Thursday night.
Tidus
also seemed to look a bit stronger this year, going from .5 years to
1.5 years in age, but I suppose the KH-factor could be blamed for that
(too).
Tidus was at the same level, virtually unchanged.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/26/2003 3:17:28 PM | Message Detail |
I
don't know... this site is so heavily biased in favor of FF already
that it will have the whole community boiling... read voting Cloud or
Sephiroth. The reason why it didn't help Mario was because the bias is
AGAINST him.
BTW, who thinks it would be so totally dumb to
bring back Aeris? Sega gave a god-awful explanation on why Shadow is
back for Sonic Heroes, and if Square pulls it... but hey, it's Square,
so they'll be defended by the fanboys every step of the way (see Tidus
being even more popular than Auron).
But if she does come back,
I could see her shooting past Sonic and Snake (she's already pretty
much on par with Magus, as both are 3-seed material). And a wee bit
ahead of them, there's Mario, Crono, Megaman and Samus. If her
popularity rises this much... there, we have THREE FF7 characters in
the top 4. Scary.
Of course, there's the threat of even more FF7
representation. I believe Mario and Sonic should be limited to 4
characters, and therefore 3 would be the limit for one game (soon-to-be
mini-series) such as FF7. Tifa, Red XIII and Vincent are what we should
worry about. (But please let Frog in.)
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Seijun | Posted: 9/26/2003 8:24:33 PM | Message Detail |
Well,
I don't think there's any doubt this will sell millions of copies. In a
way there's probably going to be even more of a crossover overall,
because it is a movie rather than a game. People who never played the
game will probably want to see what all the fuss is about.
Yeah,
but the same people who never played the game probably checked out The
Spirits Within when it came out, and I think survey says that quite a
bit of people considered the movie to be rather... unspectacular.
Unless
if the movie turns out to be really good, I will have to agree with SPM
that the majority of people who will buy this will be FF7 fans, and
therefore, the movie's impact on the SC2K4 will be minimal. Any other
movie goer will see that it's based on a Video Game, and will therefore
think that it will probably suck.
Of course, most of what I mentioned was said of Kingdom Hearts as well, and look what happened. :p
---
Apparently
Shion is more concerned with her weapon of mass destruction
appreciating the beauty of spring and the sweetness of a baby's smile. | | From: Star Magician | Posted: 9/27/2003 9:57:44 AM | Message Detail |
viewtiful bump
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"N00B! YOUR MOM HOWLED LIKE A BLACK WIND LAST NIGHT!" ~Magus | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/27/2003 2:57:33 PM | Message Detail |
Yes,
maybe you're right about TIdus not changing much...though it seems
pretty suspicious that Tidus performed at almost the same level as
Sonic in 2003. It seems that Sonic may have gone down, or Tidus went
up, or perhaps a combination of both. You know, it always a little
strange how Cloud could dominate over Sonic so much yet not win over
Link with 55%; according the math in 2002, Link would beat Sonic with
59/60%. On top of that, Sephiroth sufficiently schooled *Mega Man* by
more than that. So it seems either the outside Nintendo fans and
bracket voters came at full force in Cloud vs. Link, or Link really is
more popular than last year, and that would mean the division is
tougher than I previously thought. If the first is true, Tidus probably
stayed roughly the same. If it's the 2nd idea, then he probably had
some boosts. Your thoughts?
Meh, it's so hard to judge these
things...sorry, just trying to not automatically pass my statement on
long-term rising popularity. =p Oh, and I just LOVE rambling and
arguing and defending every once in a while...maybe nobody else likes
doing it, though? =p ;_;
In response to Slowflake, I certainly
hope Aeris would never reach that level, but it could happen... she's
popular yes, but she's the weak link of the FF7 trio, and should be
replaced by another FFVII character... Also, check out this:
Last
year Crono was just as popular as Cloud, if not slightly below, yet
performed about "10%" (think addition) better than Aeris did against
Solid Snake. This year, compared to Sonic, Cloud did a whopping "19%"
better against Sonic than Aeris herself did. Even factor in proportions
(i.e. more popular characters gain extra fans more quickly), Cloud
should've gotten 60% at the very best. That is why I was incredibly
shocked that Cloud nearly doubled Sonic's percentage. There's no doubt
Cloud and Sephiroth's support changed more dramatically than Aeris'.
That makes me wonder what Cloud vs. Sephiroth would've been like in
2002...
As Seijun said, for the Advent Children to make an
effect, I say the movie will have to be amazing to reach out and grab
many new fans, especially from this site. I couldn't stand that thought
of them increasing in popularity that much AGAIN, though...
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/27/2003 11:23:53 PM | Message Detail |
Well,
this is a bit late for this...I thought about doing it for a long time,
but I finally decide to create a list of 2002 character rankings based
on "Mario = Sephiroth" (I know they weren't exactly equal in 2002, but
close enough) ...or basically, if we pretended that Link faced
Sephiroth in the finals, also, to get rid of same-fanbase factor that
everyone believes exists. In other words, it just increases the numbers
of all the characters in the North and East divisions.
Well, I
won't post the whole list up, but I'll just show how some of the 2003
Round 1 matches would've gone based on my normal "rankings" chart as
well as this new "Mario=Sephiroth" chart. I'll just call it chart #2,
and the original one chart #1. And please note that my rankings chart
is a bit different from creativename's, though it's based on how each
character would've done against LInk, as well.
Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud -
actual: Fox wins with 68.67%
Rankings #1: Fox wins with 59.65%
Rankings
#2: Fox wins with 59.65% (note: this is the same result because Fox and
Pikachu were both in the North/East divisions in 2002)
Squall Leonhart vs. Jill Valentine
actual: Squall wins with 59.99%
Rankings #1: Jill wins with 55.51%
Rankings #2: Squall wins with 51.44% <--- Doh!
Cloud Strife vs. CATS
actual: Cloud Strife wins with 86.91%
Rankings #1: Cloud wins with 82.21%
Rankings #2: Cloud wins with 84.63%
Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Ken
actual: Sonic wins with 68.91%
Rankings #1: Sonic wins with 65.30%
Rankings #2: Sonic wins with 65.30%
Alucard vs. Bomberman
actual: Alucard wins with 64.46%
Rankings #1: Bomberman wins with 50.67%
Rankings
#2: Alucard wins with 56.20% <----Thank goodness I didn't find this
out, or else I would've had Kirby beating Alucard in my bracket for
certain. =p
Gordon Freeman vs. Max Payne
actual: Max wins with 53.99%
Rankings #1: Max wins with 66.50%
Rankings #2: Max wins with 61.23%
Sephiroth vs. Raziel
actual: Sephiroth wins with 82.00%
Rankings #1: Sephiroth wins with 73.49%
Rankings #2: Sephiroth wins with 73.49%
Ryu vs. Duke Nukem
actual: Ryu wins with 69.92%
Rankings #1: Ryu wins with 74.76%
Rankings #2: Ryu wins with 70.79%
Dante vs. Ryo Hazuki
actual : Dante wins with 77.65%
Rankings #1: Dante wins with 64.60%
Rankings #2: Dante wins with 64.60%
Yeah,
some of the estimations based on the "Mario vs. Sephiroth" list are
horridly off, but every one of those predictions based on that list is
closer than ones based on the other list (except for when they're
exactly the same) It seems like pretty good evidence that fanbase split
DOES in many more matches than one might think. (this is mainly pointed
toward creativename. =p) Creative, maybe you could apply this "Mario
vs. Sephiroth" style to YOUR rankings list? I'd just think it'd be
interesting to compare them, and see if yours works even better...
Wow...I'm starting to create tons of typos...means I need to go to bed...
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: creativename | Posted: 9/28/2003 4:58:26 AM | Message Detail |
You
know, it always a little strange how Cloud could dominate over Sonic so
much yet not win over Link with 55%; according the math in 2002, Link
would beat Sonic with 59/60%
A decrease in popularity for
Sonic is the most logical explanation. He didn't fall that much though;
it's within the realm of randomn fluctuations, I think (though I'm not
certain).
On top of that, Sephiroth sufficiently schooled
*Mega Man* by more than that. So it seems either the outside Nintendo
fans and bracket voters came at full force in Cloud vs. Link, or Link
really is more popular than last year, and that would mean the division
is tougher than I previously thought
Mega Man also seemed to
drop a bit in popularity. But, again, not to any significant extent;
not enough to conclude that the drop meant anything.
The
evidence is very much in favor of Link '03 = Link '02. This assumption
worked best out of the ones I tried. The correlation between character
results from both years is just over .9 using this assumption.
or
basically, if we pretended that Link faced Sephiroth in the finals,
also, to get rid of same-fanbase factor that everyone believes exists
People shouldn't believe in it anymore, if they still do.
I
actually did that a while ago (adjusting everyone in Mario's half up).
However looking at the results this year, it seemed to me to make
things worse (not using numbers, just skimming over the results).
Neither Mario nor the people in his half of the bracket were very
underrated. Just now I did a more in-depth analysis again, this time
using Excel Solver to find the value for Mario '02 that minimized the
relative least squares difference between characters' popularity
between '02 and '03 (among repeat characters). It seems that adjusting
Mario to 39.4% against Link in SC2K2 (vs. the 37.5% he received) is
best using this formula. So perhaps Mario was underrated, and my
initial look at this was incorrect. Not really much difference though,
and you get almost as many things that make less sense as those that
make more sense.
I also adjusted for Donkey Kong a while ago.
I'm not going to bother to use solver for him, because it was readily
apparent that he was highly underrated in '02 compared to '03 using the
recursive rating method. Adjusting DK '02 up by a huge amount would no
doubt increase correlations. The same fanbase factor is the most
logical explanation in his case.
It seems like pretty good evidence that fanbase split DOES in many more matches than one might think.
Sorry,
but it's quite the opposite. There's too many points against same
fanbase factor affecting anything at "high" levels. It may affect
mid/lower-tier characters like Donkey Kong or Raiden, but not guys like
Mario or Cloud or Sephiroth or Link. Also, it didn't even affect Cloud
vs. Auron, which is a match where on might assume it would've come in
to play. And Auron isn't really a heavyweight.
Creative,
maybe you could apply this "Mario vs. Sephiroth" style to YOUR rankings
list? I'd just think it'd be interesting to compare them, and see if
yours works even better...
As I said, not much difference.
Not nearly enough evidence to prove a same fanbase factor worked
against Mario. Scientifically, you have to prove a complicating factor
such as the SFF, rather than disprove it. I do believe it hurt Raiden
this year, and maybe Kefka...though that's a big maybe.
Obviously, it did nothing to exaggerate the results of Cloud vs.
Sephiroth, which is akin to Link vs. Mario in that both are higher-tier
opponents (even though Mario isn't really at the level of the others).
Link was simply much more popular than Mario in '02 (and '03), and
Sephiroth probably wouldn't have had that much trouble with Mario in '02 either.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 9/28/2003 8:35:40 AM | Message Detail |
Nice List Haste2, and I can see your point, the #2 Rankings are quite a bit more accurate.
My favorite was this though,
Alucard vs. Bomberman
actual: Alucard wins with 64.46%
Rankings #1: Bomberman wins with 50.67%
Rankings
#2: Alucard wins with 56.20% <----Thank goodness I didn't find this
out, or else I would've had Kirby beating Alucard in my bracket for
certain. =p
How did that happen? I guess Bomberman is just that cool :D
Do
you really think Sephiroth would have been able to trounce Mario in
2002? Mario beat Cloud, and now that we know Cloud > Sephiroth, I
think it's pretty easy to see that Mario could very easily edge out
Sephiroth as well. Unless of course Kingdom Hearts did more for Cloud
than it did Sephiroth.
I wouldn't start calling another Cloud
victory in 2004 quite yet. Link was a league above all the competition
last year, and he still lost. Either he or Sephiroth have an excellent
chance of knocking Cloud down come 2K4.
---
I met a possum! | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/28/2003 1:40:00 PM | Message Detail |
Cloud
> Sephiroth? Maybe, but I'm not so sure. Human nature normally
pushes the vote on the hero's side, unless Sephiroth is just so cool it
goes outta the window.
For the record, I had Sephiroth beating
Mario on the basis that Sephiroth > Cloud, actually. No ingerence of
KH... I intially thought of a 51-49 win there.
But if the same
fanbase factor is bogus... then Seph was way ahead of Cloud last year.
This would scream the question, how did Cloud catch up so much with
Seph?
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/28/2003 3:21:36 PM | Message Detail |
creativename, how is again that your formula works for seeing how one character would perform against another?
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: creativename | Posted: 9/28/2003 5:36:31 PM | Message Detail |
Do you really think Sephiroth would have been able to trounce Mario in 2002?
Not trounce, but most likely win fairly comfortably.
and now that we know Cloud > Sephiroth
This was NOT
true in 2K2! Sephiroth would've probably beaten Cloud last year. As for
this "hero" factor, it's meaningless, outside of the fact that of
course primary characters are typically more popular than other party
members, villains and NPCs.
Mario beat Cloud
Well,
I don't think we need to go over those circumstances again. It seems
reasonable to think that Cloud was about 51%-52% against Mario last
year without interference.
Unless of course Kingdom Hearts did more for Cloud than it did Sephiroth.
It did.
I
wouldn't start calling another Cloud victory in 2004 quite yet. Link
was a league above all the competition last year, and he still lost.
Either he or Sephiroth have an excellent chance of knocking Cloud down
come 2K4
Completely agree. I don't see how anyone can make
Cloud a prohibitive favorite. You cannot possibly become a bigger
favorite than Link was this year--it seemed inconceivable he'd lose, at
least until you realized how much Squall had improved (the first time I
ever thought that Cloud/Sephiroth had a chance to beat Link wasn't
until after Squall vs. Samus!). And even then, it wasn't until Cloud
thrashed Sonic that you truly believed it. Cloud didn't even get 52% on
Link either Link or Sephiroth this year. If the KH characters all
gained so massively, then this is next to nothing.
If you look
at where Cloud ranked last year, it seems possible for Mega Man, Mario,
Crono, and Samus to win next year (in addition to the Big Three). If
any of these receives a Cloud-level KH-style boost, then they could
easily win. Snake, Magus, Ganon, Tidus, Shadow, Zero and Aeris are also
not completely out of contention if they receive some sort of massive
boost.
creativename, how is again that your formula works for seeing how one character would perform against another?
Oops! "minimized the relative least squares difference" <--that doesn't make any sense, heh. It should read "minimize the squared difference".
I
just took a list of all characters that were in both contests, then
compared their expected % against Link (Link '02 for SC2K2 characters,
Link '03 for SC2K3 characters). I then calculated correlations on these
values as well. I didn't solve using max correlation, because this will
often lead to funky results in statistics. Instead I minimized the sum
of the relative squared differences--by relative, I mean that I divived
the squared difference by the SC2K3 level.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/28/2003 6:23:48 PM | Message Detail |
Thinking
about it, all that talk about Megaman losing feathers during his match
with Resetti... it IS true. Last year, Sephiroth and Megaman were the
best behind Link, then way behind you had Cloud, Mario and Crono (Samus
was still at Sonic's level back then, speaking of which, Prime and
Fusion did help her). Now MM seems to have fallen to the
Mario/Crono/Samus tier... see the results against Snake and Sephiroth.
Vs. Snake: barely better than Crono
Vs. Sephiroth: barely better than Mario
Or...
could have all this hype around Megaman with his trouncing of Ms.
Pac-Man given him a shot? You know, people believing in a massive
underdog to the point of creating an upset prospect?
Now, I see
people talking about Snake gaining popularity from his new titles...
his story would be eerily similar to Samus', who got from Sonic's tier
to Crono's tier with new games. She was an old-school icon who popped
back up recently... just like Snake. And Snake is around Sonic's level
as of now... this would make a whopping FIVE characters who could
potentially face Cloud in the semis, assuming the widely assumed
bracket model (Cloud in the North, Link and Seph in the South and West)
comes true. It will be decided by which of these five end up in the
East... my prediction is Mario and Crono.
Next topic o' the day
is Shadow. Okay, so we all thought his fanbase was much like Ramza's or
Ness', rabid but limited in size. How wrong we were... and now, he has
a second major title on the way, thanks to a lame-ass explanation on
how he survived you-know-what. If one game can have this much effect on
a character's popularity, can he end up at Sonic's level? (I think that
Mario's not a good measuring stick, because against anyone but a
Nintendo character not named Link or Samus, or Cloud or Sephiroth,
he'll always come out with a narrow victory, be it against Servbot or
Crono.) I am not sure if the Square factor kicked in for KH, but if
Shadow can still rise... well, at least he's got my anti-vote for all
eternity.
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: creativename | Posted: 9/28/2003 9:58:47 PM | Message Detail |
Samus was still at Sonic's level back then, speaking of which, Prime and Fusion did help her
There
is no way that Samus was more popular this year. She was 11th on my
"most declined" list (falling 11.2% geometrically). It's just that
Sonic was even worse than her, at 8th (down 20.9%, which is actually
fairly significant, contrary to what I posted earlier). Samus' decline
was not necessarily significant, but there is no basis whatsoever for
saying she was more popular this year.
his story would be eerily similar to Samus', who got from Sonic's tier to Crono's tier with new games
?
Samus was well ahead of Crono last year. She fell behind him this year.
Even bumping Mario upwards, last year Crono was equal to Samus at best.
This year, despite her fall in popularity, she was virtually even with
Crono (who was essentially unchanged).
I think that Mario's
not a good measuring stick, because against anyone but a Nintendo
character not named Link or Samus, or Cloud or Sephiroth, he'll always
come out with a narrow victory, be it against Servbot or Crono.
I
am highly doubtful of this. Mega Man should be a slight favorite
against Mario. Also, Mari's odds of victory are only slightly over
50/50 in future matches against Crono; it was apparent that Crono was
infinitessimaly more popular than Mario this year, without
interference. It now appears that interference in favor of Mario must
be taken into account, thus making him the favorite despite the
ridiculous level of equality between the two, but this can hardly be
taken for granted.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/28/2003 10:19:36 PM | Message Detail |
I really miss a lot of things people say because I read all the messages too fast...
Indeed,
I find it hard to believe that Cloud could catch up to Sephiroth so
much...and yet Mega Man also decreasing in popularity? Sonic would also
have to drop, as well. Heck, even Samus somehow dropped compared to
Link this year, too...(in fact, she was disappointing in every
round...she was theoretically supposed to get 74% against KOS-MOS, for
example) This is not applying the SFF, of course. =p However, Solid
Snake, Mario, and Crono seem to be right in place compared to 2002.
Yeah,
you're right about Cloud being more popular than Mario...so I guess I
could adjust my chart and say Mario gets .48 * .43353 or somewhere
around there, if I decide to keep using that SFF chart.
By the
way, if SFF really exists to a signifigant amount, it would difficult
to truly predict the percentages accurately...I mean, we'd have to come
up with some non-linear equation, because if it simply multiplied the
win value by 1.15 or whatever, and Mega Man and Ms. Pac-Man had the
same fanbase, Mega Man would win with over 100% according to it. =p
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 9/28/2003 10:34:05 PM | Message Detail |
I find it hard to believe that any character from last year dropped in popularity.
One
thing to take into account is the higher number of voters. A good
majority of the new voters could have been Square fans, which explains
why Cloud and Sephiroth(and other Square characters)did so well.
I'd
be willing to bet that all characters increased in popularity this year
simply because of the large increase of voters, but it seems
insignificant when compared to Cloud and Sephiroth.
Next year
I'd like to see Samus, Snake, and Sonic in the same division, so we can
once and for all see how they stack up against each other.
---
"Do these huggies make my ass look big?" - Stewie Griffin
| | From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 9/29/2003 12:51:43 PM | Message Detail |
Yes,
a game has to be out a while to make a difference--this is because
games are not as "frontloaded" in terms of being bought like, for
instance, movies are. I've made this point in this thread before. It's
common now for movies to get 50% of their total gross opening weekend;
for games, it may take a few months to "diffuse" through the
marketplace. But Advent Children isn't a game, so it's an unknown. It
will probably perform more frontloaded than a typical DVD
release--which take a very long time to hit "saturation"--because it
won't hit theaters first, and because the anticipation level is so
extreme.
Meh, I bet it will sell just exactly like an
anticipated sequel game (i.e., just as if it were FF7-2 the game), or
those straight-to-video sequels to Disney movies. Actually, it will
probably be advertised less than either. But this is beating a dead
horse.
Unless of course Kingdom Hearts did more for Cloud than it did Sephiroth.
It did.
The more I think about this, the more it makes perfect sense. In order to proceed in the game, you have to listen to Cloud give his little spiel about who he is and what he's doing, and you have
to fight him. He even appears in the ending, I think. It is quite easy,
on the other hand, never to see Sephiroth at all and, as he was a
last-minute addition for the NA release, never even hear of him! I
suspect a fair number players did just exactly that, and many more saw
him for exactly 30 seconds before he killed them in 2 hits, they moved
on to finish the game, and never looked back.
I find it hard to believe that any character from last year dropped in popularity.
It's a relative scale, not absolute popularity (is there such a thing?).
A good majority of the new voters could have been Square fans
A
possibility I have considered myself. Can you think of any particular
reason why it would be the case though? If last year's ~70,000 voters
per match were a representative sample of the site's population, then
why would either:
a) this year's ~100,000 voters not be a representative sample, or
b) the opinion of the general population swing so heavily in favor of new-school Square while leaving Chrono Trigger to rot?
But now for this Samus thing. it is absolutely mystifying to me that a character could have her first game in years released 6+ months before the contest, have it universally acclaimed, and drop severely in the polls.
It makes no sense at all. No rise, I'd believe, but a big drop
confounds me. Creativename has completely convinced me that SFF does
not exist except in a very few select cases, of which I don't believe
Link-Samus is one (or else Cloud-Auron was one too, meaning Auron was a
monster, meaning Tails was respectable, meaning Alucard was fairly
strong, meaning so was Kirby, which is patently false).
Therefore
I have no choice but to suspect the system. Creativename's approach is
excellent, but I think he chose the wrong guy as the control. With the
release of Wind Waker to perfect 10/10 reviews, cries of
"dissapointment to the series," and general grumbling about graphics, I
think we have every reason to suspect Link's relative popularity would
have changed in some way (hard to say which, even!). The assumption of
Link 2k2 = Link 2k3 I find questionable.
Allow me to suggest a
different character to assume remains unchanged. A character who,
barring something stunningly unexpected, may well remain unchanged forever. Pac-Man.
Pac-Man is, as someone put it, "old-school even to old-schoolers." No
new release seems capable of changing what he is (and is not) as a
character, symbol, or series representative. You might be able to argue
the same for Mario, but Pac-Man seems to me to be even more stable.
Would it change much for the underlying assumption to be Pac-Man =
Pac-Man rather than Link = Link?
---
The GameFAQs Summer Contest 2003 Fanfiction Project: http://members.aol.com/gcbfiles/ffproj.html | | From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 9/29/2003 1:50:14 PM | Message Detail |
I'd have to agree with Pac-Man remaining unchanged over Link.
---
"Do these huggies make my ass look big?" - Stewie Griffin
| | From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 9/29/2003 2:01:34 PM | Message Detail |
Samus dropped severely in the polls? I didn't really think so...
---
Those who know nothing, can understand nothing. -Ansem | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/29/2003 2:10:17 PM | Message Detail |
Maybe
that's just because she did so well against Sephiroth. Heck, that would
give Sonic way ahead of Mario too, and the 2003 evidence points to the
reverse. And the basis on which that whole Samus 2002 > Samus 2003
is based is the match against Seph. That just sounds like
rock-paper-scissors to me.
Sonic did better against Ken than
2002 Samus, yet in the end Samus ended up with a much better pedigree
overall in 2003. Don't tell me she won 8-9 points since last year, it's
much less than that... But I seriously doubt she dropped.
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Winter Evening Star | Posted: 9/29/2003 4:03:21 PM | Message Detail |
| Great topic guys ^_^ | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/29/2003 7:32:18 PM | Message Detail |
I
think I've found a system of figuring out the characters strengths
supposing a couple off things in the late matches in the Summer 2003
contest (hey, they don't involve SFF this time), and from what I see so
far, the entire elite 9 seem to be at almost the exact same popularity
as in 2002 (Well, except MAYBE Samus *wink wink*)...but I need to
investigate this some more.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/30/2003 9:26:53 AM | Message Detail |
Even Cloud and Sephiroth? No, that just CANNOT BE. Especially Cloud.
A
question for today. Now, in addition to Frog, Geno and Viewtiful Joe
are thought to be in the next contest. (How did Joe get so popular with
his first game YET TO BE RELEASED?) The question is, are they the next
Maguses, newcomers who are expected to do very well and succeed, or
Vercettis, DUDS? How would you seed them? (That includes Frog, since I
haven't seen too many opinions on the subject.)
Frog: 5-seed.
Ideally, Crono would get a 2 and Magus a 3... so Frog would get a
relatively low seed, sort of a "prove yourself" challenge, without
having a ridiculously low one like Magus this year. We now know CT is
popular as a whole, and not just Crono.
Geno: 8-seed. Although I
don't like him much, I gotta admit he's quite popular with the ladies,
and the guys love him too. However, he's been in only one game, and
while this game is loved by a lot of people, I don't see him having the
same status as Frog, even though the similarities between the two are
striking. Oh, and set him up for a round 2 match with Mario. That would
be great.
Viewtiful Joe: 13-seed, as of now. Perhaps if his game
lives up to the incredible amount of hype it is receiving already (what
kind of game is it anyway?), I can change that, but for now, people who
have been nothing but hype in the contest ended up being duds (3 of
them were 3-seeds this year, but much more widely known than Joe). But
if he does well against the likes of Tidus, Zero and their equals, then
there's always 2005... maybe.
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/30/2003 3:53:57 PM | Message Detail |
These are how I *think* the new characters will be seeded.
Frog: 4-7 Seed
Geno:7-12 Seed
Viewtiful Joe: 3-15 Seed
I
don't really have any logical reasoning for any of these except for
Joe. As we have seen this year, people with huge hype can be seeded
extraordinarily high, but also Joe's newcomer status could also
possibly get him seeded absurdly low. Hell, Squall was a 15 Seed the
first year and a Sweet Sixteen Contender last year.
Perhaps if his game lives up to the incredible amount of hype it is receiving already (what kind of game is it anyway?),
As far as I know, it's a cel-shaded action, beat-um-up game.
I
don't have a link to pictures but Joe is basically a guy in a red
bodysuit. Apparently the game (I don't know about Joe in particular)
kinda parodies all those old action/kung fu movies.
And it's by Capcom for Gamecube.
---
Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing...
--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/30/2003 4:02:24 PM | Message Detail |
Did somebody say "cel-shaded"? *starts digging Joe's grave*
Seriously
though, there were actual reasons for putting MC and Vercetti at #3.
Their games were gigantic hits... only they suffered from a lesser
version of the Freeman Flu, what we didn't know at the time. I don't
think Viewtiful Joe's going anywhere near top seller status such as
Halo and GTA:VC.
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 9/30/2003 4:12:22 PM | Message Detail |
It's
going to be hard to get next year's seedings just right. There are so
many returning characters that fit within the 3-7 seed range, and a few
new characters may take those seeds as well.
Magus, Ganondorf,
Squall, Luigi, Auron, Bowser, Yoshi, Aeris, Zero, Shadow, Alucard,
Kirby, Ryu, Dante, and Zelda all fit in that range, IMO. Perhaps Tidus,
Vercetti, DK, and MC.
---
"Do these huggies make my ass look big?" - Stewie Griffin
| | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/30/2003 4:42:32 PM | Message Detail |
How I would see it:
1-seeds: Cloud, Sephiroth, Link, Mario
2-seeds: Megaman, Crono, Samus, Snake
3-seeds: Sonic, Magus, Ganondorf, Zero
4-seeds: Aeris, Tidus, Bowser, Shadow
5-seeds: Squall, Ryu, Zelda, Frog
6-seeds: Auron, Vercetti, Yoshi, Knuckles.
7-seeds: Luigi, Dante, DK, Alucard
Kirby would have an 8, and MC a 9.
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/30/2003 4:44:50 PM | Message Detail |
And
I think the pack was so good this year that the only newcomer who could
claim a good seed would be Frog. Oh, and if anyone from FF7 is added
(PLEASE NO!), then him/her/them.
Unless Morrigan and Aya return
and they impressed Ceej a lot last year (I wouldn't count on that last
part, as they were left out this year)
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Star Magician | Posted: 9/30/2003 4:47:47 PM | Message Detail |
bump
Go Viewtiful Joe!
---
"N00B! YOUR MOM HOWLED LIKE A BLACK WIND LAST NIGHT!" ~Magus
http://www.capcom.com/v-joe/index2.html# | | From: Star Magician | Posted: 9/30/2003 4:51:05 PM | Message Detail |
4-seeds: Aeris, Tidus, Bowser, Shadow
5-seeds: Squall, Ryu, Zelda, Frog
Why would Squall get a fifth seed? I think he might be able to beat all those fourth seeds, or at least some.
Please excuse this noobish question.
---
"N00B! YOUR MOM HOWLED LIKE A BLACK WIND LAST NIGHT!" ~Magus
http://www.capcom.com/v-joe/index2.html# | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/30/2003 4:58:18 PM | Message Detail |
Taking a closer look at this, switch Bowser with Ryu. Then...
Aeris:
Came mighty close to ousting Sonic. Squall missed by much more against
Samus, who's just a little bit ahead of the blue blur.
Tidus: If he's just behind Magus, then I'd gladly take 34% against Link over 41% against Samus. Whatever way you look at it.
Ryu:
Now THAT's a toughie. Ryu did a small bit better against Samus than
(2003) Squall did, so I'd guess Ryu is that much better (read just a
wee bit).
Shadow: Now, we learned that with Mario around, odd
things happen... but Shadow's still popular. MIGHTY popular. Not
everyone can make Mario run for his life. That's the risk of
short-lived runs... you can't gauge anything accurately. Especially not
with Mario around. But hey, 4 vs. 5 matches are meant to be close,
right? RIGHT?
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/30/2003 5:05:14 PM | Message Detail |
Slowfake...
I meant that it worked well with all the characters , but with a few
excepions, like Cloud and Sephiroth. =p Of course one can't expect all
characters to have the same popularity, but I think it's safe to say
that most of them did.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/30/2003 5:11:24 PM | Message Detail |
Yes, it's really close, but there aren't 25 3-seeds, there are 4.
*21 characters go "PHEW!"*
So
we might as well do a good job at doing these fantasy seedings, to
prevent some matches from happening one or two rounds too early (in
these same seedings, not in reality!). These characters are not so hard
to untie at the microscope. ;)
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 10/1/2003 3:49:38 PM | Message Detail |
Bumparoo!
I've been wondering. How do Morrigan and Aya stack up against the rest?
We
know that last year Aya was about equal to DK, but with Square's great
showing this year, I'm almost tempted to say she might be a little bit
stronger than DK now.
As for Morrigan... ::looks at
Mario/Morrigan, and then Mario/DK:: I know, I know, split fanbase
during the Mario/DK match, but she still got about twice as many votes
as DK did.
---
"Do these huggies make my ass look big?" - Stewie Griffin
| | From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/1/2003 4:45:04 PM | Message Detail |
But
assuming Megaman is approximately equal to Mario and DK to Vercetti,
then DK lost HALF of his potential votes against Mario. Unless he grew
stronger somehow since last year and Vyse could beat up a lot of the
lower seeds. Because if DK didn't budge, then Bub would beat Vyse.
Wassupwitdat?
---
Pie, Kirby, Family Guy, Porn. Wow... I just summed up my entire life in 5 words... -DWX131415 voting on the Tournament of Everything | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 10/1/2003 6:59:58 PM | Message Detail |
I
know...the fact that Bub got about 1% higher against DK than Vyse does
scares me...well, Vyse just might be that unpopular. I'd also imagine
Bub is much more recognizable than Vyse is. But still...how could a
semi-good looking pirate be less appealing than a cute puzzler mascot?
Nintendo seemed to have a rough start in the 2002 contest, with Samus
doing 4% worse than Sonic against Ken, and so forth.
I've often
thought about Aya Brea vs. Morrigan as well...well, we know that Mario
tends to grab some extra anti-votes...er, at least most
LIKELY...there's no *real* proof it...but since DK would get 32-33%
against Mega Man apparently, I'd say Aya would take Morrigan out, but
with some difficulty.
Well, Bub > Vyse seems a little awkward...how about Vyse vs. Terry Bogard? =p
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 10/2/2003 3:44:45 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 10/2/2003 3:48:04 PM | Message Detail |
Ahem...I decide to repost the message to make it easier to read...
Well,
I couldn't believe that "M=S" rankings list really WAS further off
until I so a graph for myself than the normal...yeah, it's a bit worse.
I've
found a change in calculating how well a character would do against
Link that's undoubtedly improved, though, and it actually deals with
the 2003 rankings. If you increase Cloud's "popularity" to above 50%
(around 56%), nearly all the characters that were in the South/West
division last year match their values better. I didn't figure this out
until I just decide to base all the values based on Link 2002 = LInk
2003 and Mega Man 2002 = Mega Man 2003, working backwards from there, I
saw that Cloud theoretically should've beaten Link with about 56.5%. I
decided to leave the North division alone, as Link was completely in
charge of that division.
Looking at the character values now,
the only ones that seem too high are Scorpion, Crash Bandicoot, and
Kirby. Ken is too low, Fox McCloud, and Pac-Man, and Jill by a little
bit. Let's not even include the 2002 North and East Division characters
to their performances this year...they would generally be FAR too high
compared to 2002, after adjusting 3/4 of the 2003 characters lower.
Hence, raising all North/East 2002 characters will make some
improvement. At this point, the "Mario = Sephiroth" rankings actually
makes sense. Okay, so Mario at about 42% against Link seems to work a
bit better, but that makes sense since at the rate Cloud was going in
that 2002 battle, wasn't he going to beat Mario with 51-52% anyway?
Why
does the math all work better if Cloud beat Link with 56%-57%? Answer:
desperate bracket voters and the infamous Nintendo "clutch" moves at
their full force, which just happened to fail. (Oh, and that's just a
guess, really. :P)
I'll just put the exact numbers to recalculate with:
For
the 2003 characters, calculate Link to have lost to Cloud with
43.51953%. This will change all the characters in the East, South, and
West divisions, but leave the North division characters alone.
Recalculate
the 2002 North/East Division characters with "Mario = 42.486%" (or
close to it...I just pretended that Cloud beat Mario with 51%).
Unfortunately,
I have no idea what'll happen with creativename's versions (using
ratios or something, not just directly multiplying percentages, like I
do) of calculating the "popularity" of the characters... BTW, you still
haven't answered my question on how it works. I meant the formula. I
know you told us a while back, but I think it's in the old topic, and
it's a hassle to go all the way to an archive and search for it. =p
It's
not perfect of course...aside from some outliers than I blame SFF for,
Alucard and Kirby seem to be a little high in the 2003 values (dunno,
blame Sephiroth for getting 11% better against Mega Man, yet only 3%
better against Alucard than Cloud) , and a few other things...
Please analyze and crititize all that I've said...but PLEASE use examples or actual numbers while doing so. =p
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/2/2003 4:00:44 PM | Message Detail |
So
Cloud would have steamrolled over Link had there not been
bracket-voters and the clutch, if I understand what you're saying
correctly.
However, I believe the clutch only comes into play
when a match involving either Mario, Link (unconfirmed) or Samus (but
only these three, since Ganondorf would have made it to Link had the
clutch expanded any further) is very, very close and very late into the
match. That's what I would define by clutch. See Sonic/Samus,
Mario/Cloud and the two Mario/Crono matches.
But if we consided
that Cloud and Sephiroth are very close to each other, and that Cloud
would have beaten Link 57-43, then that would mean that either Mario
actually made a monster jump forward, along with Crono and the rest, or
Link fell by a lot. I doubt that second hypothesis stands true... even
Dante, with only one good game to back him up after a dud much, MUCH
worse than WW, didn't seem hindered.
The conclusion? You just
CANNOT try to get an overview of the contest in one single picture and
get away with it. There are so many ways of comparing each character
anyway... You can only use actual past matches to judge a character's
popularity, like, Dante was doubled by Crono and Ryu did very well
against Samus... Ryu should win with around 55%. If you get what I'm
saying.
But it's too dangerous to base all our predictions on a
single picture... Alucard did better than Jill against Bomberman, but
worse against Kirby, for example. You might have some cases of
rock-paper-scissors.
---
Sephiroth is feeling pretty after being voiced by Lance Bass. -pika94589 on Sephiroth's looks in FF7:AC | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 10/2/2003 4:47:38 PM | Message Detail |
Well, thanks for, um, trying to understand my pitiful writing skills. I have a tough time doing long explanations. ;_;
Some
good points, Slowflake. Hard explaining Alucard's destroying Bomberman,
huh? Yeah, kind of like how Ryo Hazuki did well against Lara Croft, but
was blown away by Dante.
The goal is to get the characters'
"popularity" values in both years as close as possible. The better than
correlation of their performances to a line is, the less we have to
rely on outside sources...or least I believe. But never totally
reliable, of course. Some time I'll plot the points of 2002 vs. 2003
values for the characters on the line Y=X and see how it turns out...
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 10/3/2003 1:25:26 PM | Message Detail |
Actually,
I suspect that this direct comparison method we're working on here
(sort of a mathematical equivalent of those greater-than less-than
chains people write) is accurate for the most part.
There are exactly two types of situation where this approach fails:
1) SFF. And I mean real
bona fide SFF. It's not as common as one might think, the characters
have to be closely related. Mario-DK is the only example that's
confirmed (DK did NOT double in strength over the past year having only
appeared in Mario Party 4, and you know it). I suspect Crono-Kefka may
have been another (less severe), but it's hard to tell. Nothing else
was, I'm pretty sure (BIG maybe for Link-Samus and Cloud-Auron, and God only knows about Cloud-Sephiroth).
2) The anti-fanbase factor. There are a few characters who, for various reasons, a large chunk of voters will vote literally anything
against. Thus opponents of these characters are buoyed up to higher
levels than they deserve. Off the top of my head, I believe this group
is: Mario, Lara Croft, Master Chief, and Tommy Vercetti. Just about
anything "cute" could be tacked on to that list, as well as Tidus, but
the only ones we have proof of are those four (Servbot, Chop Chop,
Felix, and Kite respectively). These guys tend to underperform in
"easy" victories but yet hang tough in dignified losses to truly
stronger characters, making those who lose to them seem stronger.
The
problem is that you can't judge the performance from year to year of
anyone whose path to your control character passes through a match
involving either of these problems. It's hard to say anything about
anyone who lost to one of the aforementioned characters relative to the
field, or about anyone who lost to someone who went down to SFF, or
anyone who lost to someone who lost to someone who went down to it, etc.
For
example, my Pac-Man equating scheme probably won't work, because the
only one who can be compared fairly to Pac-Man this year is Kefka. The
questionable Crono-Kefka multiplier factors into every other
character's measurement. Similarly it is quite impossible to figure out
how strong Shadow the Hedgehog is, because he lost to Mario, who screws
favorably with his opponents' percentages (2K2 results suggest Servbot
would beat Fox, for example). And thereby all we can say of Wario is
that he's weaker than Shadow (about half as strong, I forget the
percentages exactly) and Mario by some unspecifiable amount.
So
while this lops off large chunks of both brackets, depending on who you
pick as your control variable, some legitimate conclusions can still be
drawn. For example, if we assume Link(2002)=Link(2003), then it is fair
to say any conclusion we draw on a Bowser(2003)-Scorpion(2002 or 2003)
match would be valid. So would any conclusion on the improvement of
Sephiroth under the assumption that Mega Man(2002) = Mega Man(2003).
But evaluating the improvement in Samus is risky, and DK was actually
effected by both stat-skewing problems.
---
The GameFAQs Summer Contest 2003 Fanfiction Project: http://members.aol.com/gcbfiles/ffproj.html | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/3/2003 1:30:30 PM | Message Detail |
Actually,
the only characters that will, bar some exceptions, almost always have
small wins and small losses are Mario and MC. 40% against Aeris, but
53% against Felix... are you trying to tell me that Felix is more
popular than Sora?
I honestly doubt SFF kicked in in Link/Samus,
since while both series are Nintendo, they just can't be compared.
Except they are the best two series to have ever seen the light. ;)
---
Sephiroth is feeling pretty after being voiced by Lance Bass. -pika94589 on Sephiroth's looks in FF7:AC | | From: Who Cares? | Posted: 10/3/2003 2:11:30 PM | Message Detail |
| In
response to the talk about new characters, I see talk of Frog, Geno,
& Viewtiful Joe, but let's not forget about the Soul Calibur 2
cast. Right now, all three versions are still in the Top Ten in FAQs
& Message Boards of the respective consoles. If this keeps up,
don't be surprised if two or even three characters from this game shows
up. Seriously, characters like Nightmare, or Ivy & Taki (TJF
material) could really throw a wrench in the way we are currently
outlooking the 2K4 contest. | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/3/2003 2:16:50 PM | Message Detail |
They
could do like KOS-MOS and win a match. However, I don't see any of them
making the Sweet 16... the competition will likely be too heavy. Plus,
the only fighting character to have a good fanbase here is Ryu. Even
Scorpion is pretty low.
---
Sephiroth is feeling pretty after killing and then screwing Lance Bass. -SSJ3 Popo merging my sig and quote | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 10/3/2003 4:03:28 PM | Message Detail |
Actually,
Lara Croft certainly has a large anti-vote base. Dante got only 4%
higher against Crono than Lara Croft did, yet got 78% against Ryo
Hazuki, compared to Lara's 59%. And to get 70% against...Chop Chop?
Fox
vs. Link was evidentally affected by SFF. Fox got just over 25% against
Cloud last year yet failed to get even 18% against Link. Even *Crash
Bandicoot* did better against Sephiroth. And we know that Fox would win
against him, easily. That's like saying Strider Hiryu would beat Fox by
a considerable margin. That just won't happen. (Strider would
put up a good fight, of course, if that ever happened, and maybe win by
a narrow margin)
There's never been a battle with two
characters of the "same fanbase" in which the winner didn't win by as
much as I thought he/she should. Ever. Except for, I suppose, Sora vs.
Aeris, but that was Sora's first performance. Okay, so there haven't
been that many.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/3/2003 5:36:45 PM | Message Detail |
But
there's no denying that Link would have destroyed 2002 Cloud, and it's
that very Cloud that Fox faced last year. To think, Fox over Cloud was
last year's "cool" pick...
Regarding Lara Croft's hate-base, yes
I know it's ridiculously high, but no odd things happen like when
Master Chief and Mario are around. She's lackluster in wins as well as
losses. I mean, it's perfectly logical that one that can't break 70%
against CCMO won't get 30% against Crono. She's just on par with
characters like Alucard, Kirby and others.
---
Sephiroth is feeling pretty after killing and then screwing Lance Bass. -SSJ3 Popo merging my sig and quote | | Jump to Page: | | | | | | | | 9 | |
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