| Stats & Discussion -- Summer 2003 Contest -- Mark III |
| : | | | | | This Topic has been marked closed. No additional messages may be posted. | | | | Page 7 of 10 | | | | From: steve illumina | Posted: 9/4/2003 6:50:50 AM | Message Detail |
It
is my time as well to give my thanks to all who posted on this thread
and made it extremely fun to read and participate in. Also thanks to
solarshadow for the very fun Oracle challenge and MMX for the Prophet
challenge.
I hope to see all of you in May when we come back
to do it all again! In the meantime, Ill be around here and there and
everywhere, anxiously awaiting analyzing again!
Steve Illumina ~9/4/03~
---
Contest Score: 113/192 Oh Seph... Anywayz...Bring on 2004!
NFL Week 1: Miami Dolphins! over Houston by 14 | | From: Star Magician | Posted: 9/4/2003 12:03:33 PM | Message Detail |
It's all over...
I think it lasted 49 days, if you say Link vs. AiAi was the first day. Seems like longer.
I'll be sticking around. I haven't been present at this board much, but with so many people leaving I'll be more noticeable.
---
Matzu:"You cut my foot off!"
Ninjai:"I apologize. I meant to cut off your head." | | From: csteve81 | Posted: 9/4/2003 12:16:58 PM | Message Detail |
I
believe the tournament lasted for 65 days. The 64 character tournament
would consist of 63 battles, and then there was that break which I
believe was 2 days long. I think that's right...
32 + 16 + 8 + 4 + 2 + 1 = 63 + 2 day bonus = 65
Either way, t'was fun. This is my first post ever on the Stats & Discussion threads, I guess I'm a little late.
---
Bart: Hello, Mr.... Kurns. I bad want... money now. Me sick.
Homer: Ooh, he card reads good! | | From: Star Magician | Posted: 9/4/2003 12:25:45 PM | Message Detail |
Oops, I forgot to add the second round for some reason...no, I'm not some little kiddie who doesn't know how to add!!!
---
Matzu:"You cut my foot off!"
Ninjai:"I apologize. I meant to cut off your head." | | From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 9/4/2003 2:11:26 PM | Message Detail |
If I had my way, this is what I'd do for next year's contest:
Take
out the top tiers. All nine of them. I mean, honestly, it's nearly
impossible for any new characters to get to their level since everyone
else is automatically labeled as inferior. As much as I love some of
them, you know one of them will win each year.
Not only the top
tiers, but take out the weaklings. No AiAi, Resetti, Tom Nook, etc. No
one really cares enough for them to be here.
What that leaves is
a bracket full of middle-tier competitors, with many openings for new
characters next year. This means: An unpredictable contest with no
powerhouses, many more close matches, and as stated earlier, many more
characters will have a chance to enter and prove their worth.
---
"Do these huggies make my ass look big?" - Stewie Griffin
Nominate Vivi in SC2K4! | | From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/4/2003 3:34:38 PM | Message Detail |
Well, I'll be signing off here too. I never did any real deep analyzations, but I did my best.
Bye!
---
Evile Ninja Team Member
The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker | | From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/4/2003 3:54:44 PM | Message Detail |
Well
guys, it's been fun! Too bad I couldn't be around much for the end of
the contest, but oh well. Anyway, some things I plan to look for in
SC2K4:
Hopeless Weaklings: I'm tired of seeing characters
like AiAi, Servbot, & Captian Olimar, who have absolutely no chance
of winning against anybody taking up spaces for someone else that can
do better. Just because a character is seeded high, doesn't mean they
have to go up against a completely worthless character.
Characters On One-Year-Hiatus:
It will be interesting to see which of these characters will get to
come back for their second run. I still believe that Aya & Morrigan
are the only two deserving to come back next year (Aya has the RPG
fanbase & Morri was one of the few fighting characters that
excelled that year) Also, if Raziel was able to get in this year, then
the one who defeated him, Strider Hiryu, should get another crack in
all fairness.
Characters that should be axed: Gordon
Freeman, Crash Bandicoot, & Ken are tops on my list. Gordon
suffered humliating losses to Tina Armstrong & Max Payne proving
that no one cares about him, despite Half-Life's success. Crash &
Ken are two characters that will never get a fair shake as long as they
remain in the contest. They'll probably end up as a low seed and will
be up against an opponent they cannot beat. But as someone else already
suggested, replace him with maybe Chun-Li, Bison, Akuma, & maybe
even Guile & we can see if the others are closer or even better
than Ryu. I would say CATS as well, but you know the CATS Army will
never let their boy miss a spot in the contest.
Soul Calibur 2 Characters:
Right now, all three versions of this game is in the Top 10 FAQ pages
of all Gamefaqs. If these pages are still at least in the Top Ten of
their own consoles by the time May rolls around, perhaps we can count
on one of these characters getting in. (Nightmare anyone???)
The High Seeds:
This is how I would setup the top four seeds of each division for next
year. Only characters that have proved themselves or have shown great
potential should be worthy of such seedings. (IMO, no new character
should be seeded higher than #5)
NORTH
1. Cloud
2. Samus
3. Snake
4. Zero
EAST
1. Mario
2. Sonic
3. Shadow
4. Zelda
SOUTH
1. Link
2. Megaman
3. Squall
4. Ryu
WEST
1. Sephiroth
2. Crono
3. Magus
4. Bowser
Anyway, let me know what you think of that setup.
Anyway,
that's my two cents! I'll probably still be around for a while, but for
those of you already taking off, see you same time next year!
| | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/4/2003 4:03:49 PM | Message Detail |
LOL, you picked my 1-seeds and put them in the EXACT same divisions. Here's how I would've done it:
NORTH
1. Cloud
2. Megaman
3. Magus
4. Bowser
5. Ryu
EAST
1. Mario
2. Crono
3. Snake
4. Tidus
5. Squall
SOUTH
1. Link
2. Sonic
3. Ganondorf
4. Shadow
5. Auron
WEST
1. Sephiroth
2. Samus
3. Zero
4. Aeris
5. Zelda
Oh BTW, can you believe it? The regulat PotD gets almost as many votes as the tournament itself!
---
If
Kefka were governor of California, he'd kill half the population to
solve the power problem, then 98% of what's left for the hell of it.
-GoldManiac | | From: HyperBlast Xan | Posted: 9/4/2003 4:11:17 PM | Message Detail |
Oh BTW, can you believe it? The regulat PotD gets almost as many votes as the tournament itself!
Indeed...
My arrangement of the top 4 for 2004:
North:
1:Cloud
2:Crono
3:Shadow
4:Ryu
East:
1:Link
2:Mega Man
3:Aeris
4:Zero
South:
1:Sephiroth
2:Samus
3:Sonic
4:Vercetti
West:
1:Mario
2:Snake
3:Magus
4:Bowser
Some are easily changeable for others/new characters too.
---
|~Xan~|
I was always afraid that the leprechaun would get drunk one day and decide to put something like brown boots in it. - Csteve81 | | From: swirldude | Posted: 9/4/2003 4:14:06 PM | Message Detail |
Ok,
so Who Cares? thinks Mega will reach the Finals, and Slowflake says
Sonic. (Looking at the South #2, since 02 Link and 03 Sephiroth resided
in this slot.) Mega and Sonic would be the right characters to ruin
this tradition.
---
M to the ario 2003 - maplejet
S to the ephiroth...and the trash can! ~ me | | From: swirldude | Posted: 9/4/2003 4:14:38 PM | Message Detail |
And HyperBlast Xan says Samus.
---
M to the ario 2003 - maplejet
S to the ephiroth...and the trash can! ~ me | | From: HyperBlast Xan | Posted: 9/4/2003 4:15:47 PM | Message Detail |
And HyperBlast Xan says Samus.
No, actually, I don't say that. It's just coincidence that the South 02 seed got to the finals both years.
---
|~Xan~|
I was always afraid that the leprechaun would get drunk one day and decide to put something like brown boots in it. - Csteve81 | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/4/2003 4:16:27 PM | Message Detail |
Actually, I could see Sonic barely losing to Ganondorf... then we would get quite the division finals.
---
If
Kefka were governor of California, he'd kill half the population to
solve the power problem, then 98% of what's left for the hell of it.
-GoldManiac | | From: HyperBlast Xan | Posted: 9/4/2003 4:18:32 PM | Message Detail |
Ah crap I put Aeris ahead of Zero, reverse those two =\
---
|~Xan~|
I was always afraid that the leprechaun would get drunk one day and decide to put something like brown boots in it. - Csteve81 | | From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/4/2003 4:38:37 PM | Message Detail |
LOL, you picked my 1-seeds and put them in the EXACT same divisions.
Yeah,
I put the ones you posted earlier as a base for my list. :) Pretty
much, the list I put down was to keep some of the matchups fresh and
interesting & avoiding possible repeats. (Mario vs Crono &
Samus vs Sonic should be the only matches worthy of an 'intentional'
repeat) All and all, I really want to see a Mario/Sonic match because
it will never happen in the finals with the current trend. And with the
Chrono Trigger fans talking about how Magus is more poular than Crono,
why not setup that matchup? Anyway, so many ways you can put these
characters together, I can see why Ceej has a hard time placing them
all in the best spot. | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/4/2003 4:40:57 PM | Message Detail |
Well...
Magus seems to be more popular than Crono everywhere on the Internet,
except for one website, if you see where I'm going.
Speaking of CT, if Frog is let in, then boot Auron on my list and put him in his place.
---
If
Kefka were governor of California, he'd kill half the population to
solve the power problem, then 98% of what's left for the hell of it.
-GoldManiac | | From: GunMage | Posted: 9/4/2003 6:35:33 PM | Message Detail |
I
know I didn't contribute much at all during the contest, but I would
just like to say that this topic has been a great place to be, mostly
safe from all of that nasty stuff in the rest of the board. Great job
to all of you, especially Solarshadow.
Next year, I have
something planned. We'll see if I can pull it off. (Hint: It deals a
lot with football.) You can probably still find me in my fic project,
either on this board on in Fanfiction. Until next year...
---
Bring on the upsets!
(Vs. Mode: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9727932) | | From: creativename | Posted: 9/4/2003 7:33:37 PM | Message Detail |
All-Time Recursive Standings
Here's
a list of all characters from SC2K2 and SC2K3, relative to Cloud 2003,
and with the assumption that Link 2003 = Link 2002.
1 || Cloud Strife '03 -- 50%
2 || Link '02 -- 48.39%
3 || Link '03 -- 48.39%
4 || Sephiroth '03 -- 48.11%
5 || Sephiroth '02 -- 41.78%
6 || Mega Man '02 -- 41.28%
7 || Samus Aran '02 -- 39.23%
8 || Sonic the Hedgehog '02 -- 39.21%
9 || Mega Man '03 -- 37.03%
10 || Mario '03 -- 36.62%
11 || Crono '03 -- 36.58%
12 || Samus Aran '03 -- 36.43%
13 || Mario '02 -- 35.97%
14 || Crono '02 -- 35.92%
15 || Cloud Strife '02 -- 35.87%
16 || Solid Snake '03 -- 33.83%
17 || Sonic the Hedgehog '03 -- 33.79%
18 || Magus '03 -- 33.48%
19 || Solid Snake '02 -- 33.26%
20 || Ganondorf '03 -- 33.21%
21 || Tidus '03 -- 32.61%
22 || Shadow the Hedgehog '03 -- 32.02%
23 || Ryu '02 -- 31.99%
24 || Zero '03 -- 31.73%
25 || Aeris Gainsborough '03 -- 31.14%
26 || Tidus '02 -- 31.1%
27 || Bowser '03 -- 29.97%
28 || Squall Leonhart '03 -- 29.16%
29 || Auron '03 -- 27.8%
30 || Aeris Gainsborough '02 -- 27.7%
31 || Ryu '03 -- 27.62%
32 || Zelda '03 -- 27.53%
33 || Claire Redfield '02 -- 26.61%
34 || Alucard '03 -- 26.23%
35 || Jill Valentine '02 -- 26.11%
36 || Ken '02 -- 25.53%
37 || Yoshi '03 -- 24.91%
38 || Kirby '03 -- 24.56%
39 || Dante '03 -- 24.53%
40 || Knuckles the Echidna '02 -- 24.39%
41 || Kirby '02 -- 23.61%
42 || Strider Hiryu '02 -- 23.07%
43 || Master Chief '03 -- 23.06%
44 || Knuckles the Echidna '03 -- 22.99%
45 || Scorpion '02 -- 22.87%
46 || Tommy Vercetti '03 -- 22.58%
47 || Donkey Kong '03 -- 22.25%
48 || Dante '02 -- 21.96%
49 || Morrigan Aensland '02 -- 21.82%
50 || Scorpion '03 -- 21.56%
51 || Jill Valentine '03 -- 21.54%
52 || Luigi '03 -- 21.39%
53 || Raziel '02 -- 21.29%
54 || Felix '03 -- 21.02%
55 || Squall Leonhart '02 -- 20.84%
56 || Sam Fisher '03 -- 20.4%
57 || Bomberman '02 -- 20.4%
58 || Wario '03 -- 20.3%
59 || KOS-MOS '03 -- 19.91%
60 || Alucard '02 -- 19.6%
61 || Yuna '03 -- 19.43%
62 || Ramza Beoulve '03 -- 19.29%
63 || Lara Croft '02 -- 18.72%
64 || Ken '03 -- 18.71% | | From: creativename | Posted: 9/4/2003 7:38:30 PM | Message Detail |
All-Time Recursive Standings Part II
65 || Lara Croft '03 -- 18.7%
66 || Kasumi '02 -- 18.54%
67 || Sora '03 -- 18.45%
68 || Pac-Man '02 -- 17.83%
69 || Miles "Tails" Prower '03 -- 17.51%
70 || Miles "Tails" Prower '02 -- 17.02%
71 || Raziel '03 -- 16.91%
72 || Fox McCloud '03 -- 16.62%
73 || Servbot '02 -- 16.4%
74 || Bomberman '03 -- 16.39%
75 || Max Payne '03 -- 16.27%
76 || Fox McCloud '02 -- 15.99%
77 || Isaac '03 -- 15.8%
78 || Little Mac '02 -- 14.86%
79 || Vyse '03 -- 14.69%
80 || Simon Belmont '02 -- 14.5%
81 || Conker '03 -- 14.34%
82 || Gordon Freeman '03 -- 14.21%
83 || Duke Nukem '03 -- 14.1%
84 || Crash Bandicoot '02 -- 13.99%
85 || Ryo Hazuki '02 -- 13.61%
86 || Max Payne '02 -- 13.58%
87 || Kite '03 -- 13.45%
88 || Kefka '03 -- 13.35%
89 || Duke Nukem '02 -- 13.24%
90 || Crash Bandicoot '03 -- 13.23%
91 || CATS '03 -- 13.09%
92 || Pac-Man '03 -- 12.92%
93 || Pikachu '02 -- 12.6%
94 || Ness '03 -- 12.44%
95 || Pitfall Harry '02 -- 12.08%
96 || Spyro the Dragon '02 -- 11.47%
97 || Kyo Kusanagi '02 -- 11.37%
98 || Donkey Kong '02 -- 10.99%
99 || Kazuya Mishima '02 -- 10.8%
100 || PaRappa The Rapper '02 -- 10.78%
101 || Q*Bert '02 -- 10.76%
102 || Aya Brea '02 -- 10.58%
103 || Tina Armstrong '02 -- 10.3%
104 || CATS '02 -- 10.06%
105 || Raiden '03 -- 9.55%
106 || Gabe Logan '02 -- 9.14%
107 || Chop Chop Master Onion '02 -- 9.13%
108 || Tom Nook '03 -- 8.71%
109 || Ulala '02 -- 8.64%
110 || Abe '02 -- 8.57%
111 || Ryo Hazuki '03 -- 8.55%
112 || Ratchet '03 -- 8.5%
113 || Pikachu '03 -- 8.34%
114 || Iori Yagami '02 -- 8.32%
115 || AiAi '03 -- 8.15%
116 || Goemon '02 -- 7.71%
117 || Akira Yuki '02 -- 7.22%
118 || Gordon Freeman '02 -- 7.12%
119 || Bub '02 -- 7.05%
120 || Captain Olimar '03 -- 7.03%
121 || Mr. Resetti '03 -- 6.8%
122 || Kane '02 -- 6.7%
123 || Terry Bogard '02 -- 6.05%
124 || Guybrush Threepwood '02 -- 5.92%
125 || Serious Sam '02 -- 5.88%
126 || Ms. Pac-Man '02 -- 5.54%
127 || Dirk the Daring '02 -- 4.68%
128 || Mr. Driller '02 -- 4.21%
The
assumption that Link 2003 = Link 2002 actually works out reasonably
well. I tried out other assumptions, but most ended up with the
differences between the same characters being more extreme. Also, with
this assumption, Fox and Tidus (who were in Link's division this year)
are at similar levels both years. It's reasonable to assume they didn't
change much. Pikachu, Jill and Squall were also in his division, but
their popularity had more pronounced changes. This is understandable
with Squall (KHF) and Jill (she presumably had a boost last year from a
new release), and Pikachu's fanbase (what little there is of it) is
probably fickle.
The popularity levels of less popular
characters are much more volatile than those of the upper-tier
characters, as one would expect--with the notable exception of the
Kingdom Hearts effect, of course. A scatterplot of 2002 popularity
compared to change in popularity shows this too be true; there is far
more volatility among those who were at the lower end of the popularity
spectrum. At the high end, Cloud and Sephiroth are all alone in terms
of changing drastically in popularity, either up or down.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: Soupy | Posted: 9/4/2003 7:40:30 PM | Message Detail |
Hey
solarshadow, it seems that the user contest isn't really gonna happen,
so I was just wondering if you still wanna do this rivalry thing. I'm
up for it if you are.
---
I got a fever! And the only prescription... .... ..is more cowbell!
-Bruce Dickinson | | From: steve illumina | Posted: 9/4/2003 7:45:20 PM | Message Detail |
Hey solarshadow, it seems that the user contest isn't really gonna happen
What user contest?
---
Contest Score: 113/192 Oh Seph... Anywayz...Bring on 2004!
NFL Week 1: Miami Dolphins! over Houston by 14 | | From: creativename | Posted: 9/4/2003 7:51:55 PM | Message Detail |
Most improved characters
Below
is a list of those SC2K2 characters whose performances were most
improved in 2003. The % here is a geometric measure, and indicates how
much their ratio to Cloud '03 increased, rather than their arithmetic percentage:
1 || Donkey Kong : 131.6%
2 || Gordon Freeman : 116.1%
3 || Cloud Strife : 78.8%
4 || Squall Leonhart : 56.3%
5 || Alucard : 45.8%
6 || CATS : 34.6%
7 || Sephiroth : 29.2%
8 || Max Payne : 23.7%
9 || Aeris Gainsborough : 18.1%
10 || Dante : 15.5%
Oddly
enough, Gordon Freeman (who was the weakest among the returnees in
2002) was the 2nd most improved returning character--and yet he was
still pathetic.
Most declined
1 || Ryo Hazuki : -40.6%
2 || Pikachu : -36.9%
3 || Ken : -32.8%
4 || Pac-Man : -31.6%
5 || Raziel : -24.8%
6 || Bomberman : -23.5%
7 || Jill Valentine : -22.3%
8 || Sonic the Hedgehog : -20.9%
9 || Ryu : -18.9%
10 || Mega Man : -16.3%
11 || Samus Aran : -11.2%
12 || Knuckles the Echidna : -7.4%
13 || Scorpion : -7.3%
14 || Crash Bandicoot : -6.3%
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: swirldude | Posted: 9/4/2003 7:57:16 PM | Message Detail |
Votewise,
Seph had 11,000 more votes than Cloud. Would that make Seph #1 and
Cloud #2? It would be interesting to see what CJay does if another
contest occured next year.
---
M to the ario 2003 - maplejet
S to the ephiroth...and the trash can! ~ me | | From: creativename | Posted: 9/4/2003 8:13:03 PM | Message Detail |
I'd
like to say now how much fun it was hanging out in this Stats thread.
This contest wouldn't have been nearly as interesting or enjoyable
without this thread and all the posters who made this thread what it
was. Frankly, I would've complete stopped paying attention to this
contest after the Mario vs. Crono fiasco, if it weren't for this
thread. It was a great thing that this thread kept me paying attention,
otherwise I would not have seen Link get knocked off. Which, despite
Link being one of my favorite characters ever, was quite worth it.
A
note on the vote totals for Cloud vs. Sephiroth: after all the fuss
about people "boycotting" this match, it turns out the match did pass
120,000 votes, just like I predicted it would. It didn't seem like it
would in the hours after it started--it looked like it might struggle
too reach even 100K. This was when lots of threads were started about
how people really weren't interested in it. All that speculation was
premature though, because as it turns out it seems that the low vote
totals early on on really were because of the "school day"
factor, like some were saying. By the end, everyone who wanted to vote
on the match, did so. And while it didn't come close to the vote totals
for Link vs. Cloud (what can?), it was still one of the highest
"grossing" matches ever. It even beat out Mario vs. Sephiroth.
Some final numbers:
Most under-seeded characters in 2003
Below are the most under-seed characters in SC2K3, according to the recursive ranking system:
Aeris -7
Raziel -6
Ken -4
Jill Valentine -4
Most over-seed characters in 2003
Pac-Man 9
Pikachu 7
Gordon Freeman 5
Miles "Tails" Prower 4
Kirby 3
Lara Croft 3
Crash Bandicoot 3
Most under-seeded, All-Time (among participants from both years)
Aeris Gainsborough -15
Raziel -10
Squall Leonhart -9
Ken -8
Kirby -8
Sephiroth -7
Fox McCloud -6
Crono -5
Jill Valentine -5
Knuckles the Echidna -5
Mega Man -5
Most over-seeded, All-Time (among participants from both years)
Gordon Freeman 17
Pac-Man 16
Crash Bandicoot 10
Donkey Kong 9
Lara Croft 9
Pikachu 9
Max Payne 7
Duke Nukem 5
And
with that, a very hearty "Thank you!" to all those who have posted in
these threads! The statistics and analysis posted in here by all were
immensely interesting and kept me reading for hours and hours. I'll be
probably be around here for another week still, and I hope to see most
of you again next year, if there's an SC2K4.
PS: Don't forget to nominate Frog! :)
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: Cthulhu | Posted: 9/4/2003 9:21:26 PM | Message Detail |
| Everyone follow me to LUE for the SC2K3 aftermath party! | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/4/2003 9:58:41 PM | Message Detail |
Eh, might as well...my thoughts on top 4 seedings: (okay, I just kinda randomly stuck Samus somewhere on there...)
NORTH
1. Cloud
2. Mario (fine, ONLY because of outside support. =p)
3. Sonic the Hedgehog
4. Tidus
EAST
1. Link
2. Samus
3. Ganondorf
4. Shadow the Hedgehog
SOUTH
1. Sephiroth
2. Crono
3. Magus
4. Aeris
WEST
1. Mega Man
2. Solid Snake
3. Zero
4. Squall Leonhart
Maybe
PGC had an effect after all last year, because Mega Man got a slightly
higher percentage against Sephiroth this year than Mario did, and
considering MM got 49.5% against Sephiroth LAST year, I think would
could say that Mario would've gotten 49% against Cloud last year under
normal circumstances assuming FF characters were the only ones that
have changed in popularity...just a thought.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: steve illumina | Posted: 9/5/2003 2:45:06 PM | Message Detail |
<bump>
---
Contest Score: 113/192 Oh Seph... Anywayz...Bring on 2004!
NFL Week 1: Miami Dolphins! over Houston by 14 | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/5/2003 2:54:42 PM | Message Detail |
Bleh,
the main idea of my last message wasn't about PGC...it was simply the
fact that Mega Man did better than Mario against Sephiroth this year,
which means Mega Man would probably edge out Mario one-on-one. (he did
better than Crono against Solid Snake, too) This gets me to think that
Mario wouldn't have won against Cloud with pure GameFAQs votes. Bracket
voters was probably a small influence, too,but whatever few PGCers
probably made the difference. Mario caught up with Cloud in the
afternoon, as well, which is when Nintendo characters normally LOSE in
percentage in the polls. I just think Mario gets extra outside support
(in the past, at least) later in the day in extremely close matches.
With this in mind, Mario would probably take out Mega Man, anyway,
but...
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/5/2003 3:03:35 PM | Message Detail |
Okay, so things settled down a bit, so now I can jump off the "OMG CLOUD WILL KILL EVRY1 NEXT TIME" bandwagon.
I
can honestly say... anyone out of the Link/Cloud/Sephiroth trio can win
next year. Link did a wee bit better than Sephiroth against Cloud...
but if the common fanbase kicked in to give Cloud these extra
thousands... then Sephiroth would beat Link too. And if Link was
boosted by the bracket-voters, and Seph wasn't... it sure is enough to
compensate.
There's also going to be the anti-Cloud voters...
though I maintain most of them are Nintendites that would vote Link
anyway. The brackets are probably going to be on Cloud's side, and I'm
repeating myself, but he won against all of them. With them on his side
now... he might be even more powerful.
Unless... either FF7 or
KH age rapidly in the next year. FF7's been around forever now, so we
have to look at KH. Can it have the staying power to grant Cloud
another championship? Probably, since Crono's a dinosaur compared to
Cloud and he's still going strong.
So barring any surprise, I
think Cloud will be the first to ever defend his title. And if my
predictions are correct, the only remotely tough fight he will have
will be in the finals, against whoever wins between Link and Sephiroth
(I'm thinking Seph).
---
If Kefka were governor of California,
he'd kill half the population to solve the power problem, then 98% of
what's left for the hell of it. -GoldManiac | | From: solarshadow | Posted: 9/5/2003 7:30:53 PM | Message Detail |
Well, it's finally over, huh? Only 6% of the entrants got the final battle right. That's impressively low. :)
Anyway,
the stats site has had the following sections updated: All Stats,
Combined Top 10 Lists, Complete Full Stats. Everything else will come
up slowly over the next week or so. And I'll probably change the Third
Place Poll to some sort of "What would you like to see next year?" poll
tomorrow sometime. So vote for Link or Mega Man if you still haven't
done so.
Thanks to everyone who participated in the stats
topics. Sorry I didn't contribute to the discussion as much as I should
have. It was still a lot of fun though, and I enjoyed reading what
everyone had to say.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com | | From: Soupy | Posted: 9/5/2003 8:38:12 PM | Message Detail |
So, you think you're too good to respond to me, huh?!
I'll get you solar boy! Mark my words!
---
I got a fever! And the only prescription... .... ..is more cowbell!
-Bruce Dickinson | | From: Cthulhu | Posted: 9/6/2003 2:11:45 AM | Message Detail |
| CJ
should take out any repeat champions. If Link or Cloud wins next year,
they are gone for good. Granted, we might have to take up the next 18
summers trying to get all of the Elite 9 out of the brackets... | | From: Star Magician | Posted: 9/6/2003 4:22:25 AM | Message Detail |
Yeah, two-time winners will have proven their strength...
---
The Golden Sun will rise again in 2004!
Soul Calibur 2...the Legend will never die! | | From: kawaiifan | Posted: 9/6/2003 6:29:00 AM | Message Detail |
Now that the tourney's over, I have time to compose some responses. ^.^
Teratron:
Instead
of just random divisions based solely on nominations, I'd devote each
division to a gaming generation - 8-bit and older, 16-bit, 32/64-bit,
and current generation.
I like your idea ^.^
Please see my 'option 4' below; your proposal is probably a superior version of it.
To
negate one of the disadvantages that I listed for my 'option 4' (eight
straight first-round matches in a single category), the first round
could be cycled instead.
1 July could be the first match of the
North division, 2 July the first match of the East, 3 July the first
match of the South, 4 July the first match of the West, 5 July the
second match of the North, 6 July the second match of the East, 7 July
the second match of the South, 8 July the second match of the West, 9
July the third match of the North....
On the other hand, this would give us four straight 1 seed vs. 16 seed matches instead. So I don't know. ^.^;;;
uncle5555:
My dream is to see a retro tourney with characters from the 8-bit and 16-bit eras,
Me
too. Even better, this can dovetail with Teratron's suggestion, which
allocates separate divisions for oldschool and newschool. That way
everybody's happy. ^.^
Yesmar:
Marina-chan looks so cute! ^.^
Such big kawaii eyes. I like ^.^
I just wish I had an N64 so I could try that game....
Who Cares?:
Hopeless
Weaklings: I'm tired of seeing characters like AiAi, Servbot, &
Captain Olimar, who have absolutely no chance of winning against
anybody taking up spaces for someone else that can do better.
I
agree (with one exception). If the format remains similar, then I feel
that the 64 entrants should be the 64 characters who have the best
chance of doing well. Frog, for example, would beat Nook or Resetti
80-20, if not better. If the nominations process needs to be reformed
in order to permit this, then I hope that it will be so reformed.
I do have a second suggestion, for ameliorating a related problem ... please see (far) below.
Characters
that should be axed: Gordon Freeman, Crash Bandicoot, & Ken are
tops on my list. Gordon suffered humiliating losses to Tina Armstrong
& Max Payne proving that no one cares about him, despite
Half-Life's success.
Totally agreed. I feel that he should
not have been brought back ... and granting him a 7 seed was nothing
short of a joke, after witnessing his horrendous performance last year.
On the other hand, perhaps a 3 seed again, now that we know about the curse .... ^.^
Crash
& Ken are two characters that will never get a fair shake as long
as they remain in the contest. They'll probably end up as a low seed
and will be up against an opponent they cannot beat.
I hate
Crash ... and I would love to see him back next year but as a 16 seed,
so that I can watch Cloud or Sephiroth or Link annihilate him to the
tune of 92-8. ^.^
But never mind me. ^.^;;
As for Ken,
But
as someone else already suggested, replace him with maybe Chun-Li,
Bison, Akuma, & maybe even Guile & we can see if the others are
closer or even better than Ryu.
Sounds good to me.
Slowflake:
OMG...
I expected Cloud to be dominating here. Guess this once more slams the
common fanbase theory. Then... why did Vercetti do twice better against
Megaman than DK against Mario, assuming Vercetti=DK and Megaman=Mario?
Weird.
I feel that the phrase 'same fanbase factor' is being
applied to three (or more) significantly different situations, leading
to confusion.
(continued)
---
Supporting Nakoruru, and her little sister Rimururu too!
| | From: kawaiifan | Posted: 9/6/2003 6:29:07 AM | Message Detail |
1)
Two characters, A and B, from the same company. Their fans, and their
company's fans, definitely prefer either one over some outsider; but
most of them also strongly prefer A over B should they face each other.
Other voters tend not to care that much about either one, but might
have a mild preference for A over B. Thus, B does rather well against
an outsider (due to heavy support from the former group), but is left
without a leg to stand on when matched up against A (since both their
fans and the other voters tend to prefer A by whatever degree). This is
the first thing that comes to my mind when the 'same fanbase factor' is
mentioned.
Examples: Mario vs. Donkey Kong, Crono vs. Kefka, and to a lesser extent Link vs. Mario.
2)
Two characters, C and D, from the same company. That company's fans
love both about equally, and would very strongly support either one
against some outsider, but would have a hard time choosing between them
if they faced each other. Other voters generally don't care about
either one, with a minority who hate both of them just about equally,
and negligible numbers who hate (or like) one but not the other. When
either C or D faces an outsider, the former does very well; but when
they face each other, it's a good close match, since few voters
strongly prefer C over D, and they're counterbalanced by the few who
strongly prefer D over C.
Example: Cloud vs. Sephiroth.
The 'same fanbase factor' is not evident here, but that's because the details of the situation are considerably different.
3)
Two characters, E and F, from the same company. Despite their being
from the same manufacturer, they aren't very similar, and neither are
their games. Fans of one aren't particularly likely to be fans of the
other, any more than anyone else would be. Similarly, haters of one
aren't particularly likely to be haters of the other, unless they are
among a small minority of zealots. The two are essentially two
independent characters.
The 'same fanbase factor' of course does not apply here, for the simple reason that their fanbases are not the same.
Examples: Link vs. Fox McCloud; and, as an extreme case, Pacman vs. KOS-MOS, both being from Namco.
(I
remember having thought of a fourth situation, but I can't remember it
now that I've typed out the above descriptions. ^.^;; )
The key
difference is the order of priorities. Many Mario fans would support
Donkey Kong, Mario's old rival, against some non-Nintendo character
like Vercetti; but would overwhelmingly desert Donkey Kong should he
face Mario himself. Many Square fans love both Cloud and Sephiroth, and
would support them against all others, but have no significant
preference between the two. And of those who do, some prefer one, some
the other.
So Donkey Kong noticeably overperforms against outsiders
and/or noticeably underperforms against his more popular comrades,
while Cloud and Sephiroth are essentially untouched by this.
StopPokingMe:
This
leads me to guess that these weak guys were only riding the popularity
of their game-mates to get where they were in the first place.
Yes. I agree. However, I feel that that's just a different way of saying the same thing. ^.^
Fans
of characters like Donkey Kong are likely to be -- and possibly are
favourably disposed toward him simply as a result of being -- even more
devoted to similar-but-more-popular characters like Mario.
Were people voting Kefka over Pac-Man, or old-school RPG's in the form of the game FF6?
My
feelings exactly. The particular voters in question like oldschool
RPG's. As such, they would likely vote for the oldschool RPG
representative, whoever she or he might be, over some irrelevant
character whom they don't care about; but between two representatives
of their favourite category (from the same company and on the same
system no less), they vote for the character they like better. It makes
perfect sense; and it's also a nearly ideal example of the 'same
fanbase factor'.
(continued)
---
Supporting Nakoruru, and her little sister Rimururu too!
| | From: kawaiifan | Posted: 9/6/2003 6:30:19 AM | Message Detail |
Everyone's
suggestions for changing the tournament for next year reminded me of
something that I was pondering about a month ago, and that I'd typed up
but had never posted. Please read on....
...
This
tournament is fun (if you can dodge the flames/bashing on the board
that is). However, I've noticed a few minor issues, which if they could
be fixed or at least ameliorated could make the tourney even better
than it is now.
1) The outcome is a foregone conclusion --
provided that no super-game along the lines of KH appears in the near
future, the winner will always be Link, Cloud, or Sephiroth. This point
we can't really do anything about, unless we were either to remove
these three or to change the tourney in an even more drastic way; but
the following points can indeed be addressed.
2) Boring blowouts.
Link vs. AiAi, Mario vs. Olimar, Crono vs. Nook, Mega Man vs. Resetti.
It's a shame that we had to waste a day on each of these utterly
useless matches, when the outcome of each is beyond obvious. It's just
a matter of 'will the favourite win 85-15, 90-10, or 95-5 ?'
3) As a
consequence of 2, the fifteen and sixteen seeds are 'booby prizes' --
thoroughly undesirable places to be. I'd rather my kawaii Nakoruru-chan
be excluded again for a third time, than have to watch her be a 15 or
16 seed next year, facing the likes of Link or Samus in the first
round. My guess is that most other devoted fans of mildly to moderately
popular characters may feel similarly.
4) Timescale. The first round
drags on forever, while the last three rounds are over in the blink of
an eye. In fact, more than half of the tournament is just the first
round! (Out of 63 matches, 32 of them are first round, 31 are all other
rounds combined.)
So I tried to brainstorm some alternative tournament layouts.
-- Option 1 -- The default.
If things stay exactly as they are, this is what we get. ^.^;;
-- Option 2 -- Reverse seeding.
The
bracket shape is the same, but in each division the 1 seed faces the 2
seed in the first round, the 3 faces the 4, and so on until the 15
faces the 16.
Advantages:
No more boring blowouts in the
first round, provided the seeding is accurate. Each and every single
match in the first round should be exciting and close.
Disadvantages:
Half of the favourites are guaranteed to be knocked out in the first round! ^.^;;;
We
would get Mario vs. Sephiroth in the first round, Mario would lose, and
that would be his only appearance in the whole tourney. ;.;
Another
disadvantage is that the matches will get worse and worse as the
tournament proceeds. If the favourite wins every match, the first round
will pit the 1 seed against the 2 seed, the second round 1 vs. 3, the
third round 1 vs. 5, and the fourth round 1 vs. 9. The good matches will all have been 'used up' at the beginning.
Besides, this is just counterintuitive. ^.^;;
The competition should get more exciting as time goes on, not less.
-- Option 3 -- Random seeding.
I've
seen questions and complaints on the board as to whether seeding is
actually necessary at all. We could simply get rid of the seeding, and
strew the characters at random across the bracket instead.
Advantages:
Unpredictability. ^.^
Possibly fewer boring blowouts in the first round.
The accuracy of the seeding is of no importance whatsoever, for obvious reasons. ^.^
Disadvantages:
After
further consideration, this plan appears to suffer most of the
disadvantages of both the first (default) option and the second
(reverse seeding) option, simultaneously. ^.^;;
-- Option 4 -- Categorised.
Much of the rudeness on the board seems to focus on Nintendo vs. Square matches.
We
could reduce the number of these, and therefore the quantity of flames,
by separating the warring parties. One division could be set aside
solely for sixteen Nintendo characters (probably North for mnemonic value). Another, for sixteen Square characters (probably South for the same reason).
(continued)
---
Supporting Nakoruru, and her little sister Rimururu too!
| | From: kawaiifan | Posted: 9/6/2003 6:30:41 AM | Message Detail |
A third, for Capcom and Sega characters, half a division each (perhaps rename either East or West to Central,
spelt with a C for Capcom but pronounced with an S for Sega). The
fourth, for miscellaneous entrants including SNK characters, Xbox ones,
Namco representatives like Pacman and KOS-MOS, and those who have no
clear allegiance due to factors such as multi-platform releases. The
membership of the third and fourth divisions could certainly be juggled
so that they end up with 16 characters each, though.
Advantages:
The divisions will actually mean something, at long last!
An
equal number of representatives of each category are guaranteed to
survive each round. One Nintendo character, one Square, one Capcom or
Sega, and one Other will make the final four. Also, had it not happened
this year, this would have been a way to virtually force a Cloud vs.
Sephiroth match, in the quarterfinals in the Square division.
Anti-votes
will have much less impact and relevance until the final four. Those
who hate a certain company or system, will likely abstain when matches
take place featuring two characters from that source. Thus, less
flaming (until the semifinals).
Disadvantages:
Decreased general interest, right alongside those abstentions ... and the whole point of the contest is to stimulate interest.
Eight straight (more than a week's worth of) Nintendo vs. Nintendo first round matches, anyone? ^.^;;
Same-company
matches often disproportionately highlight any differences in strength
which may exist, and thus exacerbate blowouts. If Mario and Mega Man
are about the same level, and Bowser and Zero are about the same level,
Mario would probably beat Bowser (or Mega Man beat Zero) by quite a bit
more than Mario would beat Zero (or Mega Man beat Bowser).
Plus,
this doesn't really solve the problem. 1 seed Link will again face a 16
seed the likes of Little Mac or AiAi in the first round of the Nintendo
division. 1 seed Cloud might draw Rydia as a 16 seed. (Poor kawaii
green-haired Rydia. ;.; )
-- Option 5 -- Byes.
Here's my personal favourite. ^.^
Everyone
knows who will win when Link faces AiAi. So why even bother wasting a
day holding that match? Just declare Link the automatic winner. Give
him a bye and spare AiAi the humiliation.
However, that shortens
the tournament by a day, and reduces the number of entrants from 64 to
63. Do it several times (Cloud, Sephiroth, Mega Man, Samus, ... ...)
and we've got a month-and-a-half contest with fifty characters instead
of a two-month one with 64.
So I tried re-drawing some possible bracket layouts, and here's what I've come up with:
64 entrants, 63 matches, 63 days, 4 divisions with 16 characters each. (Sound familiar so far? ^.^ )
Seven rounds of matches, not six. The quarterfinals are the fifth round, the semis the sixth, the final match the seventh.
The 1 seed in each division receives a triple bye (to the fourth round, the round of 16).
The 2 and 3 seeds each receive double byes, to the third round.
The 4, 5, and 6 seeds each receive single byes, to the second round.
The 7 through 16 seeds leap into action in the first round.
Each division is laid out as follows:
First round matches -- 10 seed vs. 13 seed; 11 vs. 12; 9 vs. 14; 8 vs. 15; 7 vs. 16.
Second round -- 5 seed vs. the winner of 10 and 13; (11 or 12) vs. 4; 6 vs. (9 or 14); (8 or 15) vs. (7 or 16).
Third round -- (5 or 10 or 13) vs. (11 or 12 or 4); 3 vs. (6 or 9 or 14); (8 or 15 or 7 or 16) vs. 2.
Fourth round -- 1 vs. (5 or 10 or 13 or 11 or 12 or 4); (3 or 6 or 9 or 14) vs. (8 or 15 or 7 or 16 or 2).
Fifth round (quarterfinals) -- the winners of the two fourth round matches, to determine the division champion.
The last two rounds remain as they are now.
(continued)
---
Supporting Nakoruru, and her little sister Rimururu too!
| | From: kawaiifan | Posted: 9/6/2003 6:32:19 AM | Message Detail |
This
can be re-created by taking a standard 128-entrant four-division
bracket, labelling the seeds, then pruning the tree in accordance with
the byes (triple for 1, double for 2 and 3, single for 4 and 5 and 6),
and renumbering the remaining seeds as needed to fill any gaps.
Advantages:
Boring
blowouts are considerably reduced in number and in degree. The winner
between the 8 seed and the 15 is almost certain, as with the 7 and 16,
but the lower seeds just might stand a small chance of an upset here.
Against Cloud, they have less than zero.
The tourney is more
evenly and steadily paced. Currently, the first round has 32 matches,
the second 16, the third 8, the quarterfinals 4, the semifinals 2, and
one final match. Each round is thus actually longer than all of the
subsequent rounds combined!
Here, by contrast, the first
round would be 20 matches, the second 16, the third 12, the fourth 8,
the quarterfinals 4, the semifinals 2, and the one final match. The
first round doesn't drag on nearly as long, being almost two weeks
shorter. A significantly greater proportion of the 'meat' of the
tournament consists of the more exciting middle rounds.
Escalation.
Suspense. The 'heavy hitters' lurk in the wings, waiting to pounce, to
make their presence felt, later on. We really don't need to see them
beat up on poor AiAi in the first round. Meanwhile, the 7 through 16
seeds participate in a sort of 'preliminaries', also known as the first
round, serving to get everyone warmed up for the rest of the tourney.
In a closely related point, more of the medium-strength characters actually get a chance to win a match or two. ^.^
Disadvantages:
The layout is considerably more complex. ^.^;;
Accurate
seeding is of much more importance than at present. Since the 3 seeds
receive byes through both the first and second rounds, they'd better
deserve their rank ... unlike what happened both last year and this
year. ^.^;;
We don't get to see the big boys in action until
later. However, you can't have everything. Were they to appear earlier,
either they would annihilate the lower seeds (as in option 1 above), or
they would face strong competition (as in option 2 above), each of
which carries its own drawbacks. I feel that letting the strongest
competitors lurk in reserve for a while is the least undesirable of
these three alternatives.
************
The worst blowouts, round by round, assuming accurate seeding and that the favourites win every match:
Option 1:
First round, 1 seed vs. 16 seed (difference of 15).
Second round, 1 seed vs. 8 seed (difference of 7).
Third round, 1 seed vs. 4 seed (difference of 3).
Fourth round/quarterfinals, 1 seed vs. 2 seed (difference of 1).
Option 2:
First round, all matches equal in having a difference of only 1.
Second round, all matches equal in having a difference of 2.
Third round, both matches equal in having a difference of 4.
Fourth round/quarterfinals, 1 seed vs. 9 seed (difference of 8).
Option 3: all rounds random.
Option 5:
First round, 7 seed vs. 16 seed (difference of 9).
Second round, 4 seed vs. 11 seed (difference of 7).
Third round, 2 seed vs. 7 seed (difference of 5).
Fourth round, 1 seed vs. 4 seed (difference of 3).
Fifth round/quarterfinals, 1 seed vs. 2 seed (difference of 1).
And
even this chart probably underestimates the true improvements. There
may well be as great a gap in strength between a 1 seed and a 4, as
between a 4 and a 14. (For that matter, the results from this year's
quarterfinal matches show a vast difference between the rightful 1
seeds and the 2's, let alone the rest.)
************
Just throwing out some ideas. ^.^
Comments, questions, additions, anything that I may have forgotten? But be nice please ^.^;;;
I'm finally finished ... for now ^.^
---
Supporting Nakoruru, and her little sister Rimururu too!
| | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/6/2003 6:37:43 AM | Message Detail |
I would personally go for the super-powerful pack of 64 characters, where 16-seeds are actually half-decent.
I mean, I could see matches like Cloud vs. Ryo and Snake vs. Ridley in the first round.
---
If
Kefka were governor of California, he'd kill half the population to
solve the power problem, then 98% of what's left for the hell of it.
-GoldManiac | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/6/2003 11:39:41 AM | Message Detail |
Heh, I kind of like the random seeding idea, honestly...
The
2002 contest was somewhat like that...too many characters were way to
high (Pac-Man, Crash, Serious Sam, Gordon Freeman) or way too low
(Squall Sephiroth, Kirby), as well as having a division with a lack of
good competition. A lot of characters were ranked fairly well, too.
Last year's contest was kind of inbetween accurate seeding and random
seeding...
I'd just like to see characters in undeserving
positions in order to give some of the weaker characters a chance to
get in a win (especially more than just 1 round)...and it definitely
makes the contest more of a challenge to predict in the beginning, as
well. I'd just hate to see every new character almost guaranteed to be
knocked out by Round 2. Random seeding or perhaps just more CJayC
seeding could work well because of this.
Blowouts can be exciting, sometimes...at least if they're big enough. See Mega Man's 4-pack in 2002, heheh.
I'd
still love to see a sidekick character contest, but if that was the
official 2004 contest, there would be a lot of blood and
destruction....so maybe it could be a side tournament.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/6/2003 11:56:34 AM | Message Detail |
Kind
of sudden, but who was it that said Crono was a dinosaur compared to
Cloud? Maybe if Crono lived in 100,000,000 BC (er, been a while since I
played CT...I don't remember the year. =P) that would be true, but his
game's only 2 years older than Final Fantasy VII! =p In fact, Chrono
Trigger is 8 years while FFVII is 6 years old. Of course, the reason it
seems so much older is that...
1. CT was technically a generation behind FF7.
2. Everything before the RPG boom from FF7 looks old-school and ancient.
I
was actually worried that age of Crono's game would harm him as the
contests went on, but looking at how old FF7 is also, I don't think it
will affect him much anytime soon...especially since he performed even
better against Mario this year. The only thing that worries is me would
be the site having more and more new casual gamers who've never even
heard of Chrono Trigger...
I can't believe I'd write so much on
such a small thing someone said (sorry, I'm too lazy to check...I read
it so long ago and it might be 3 pages back hidden), but hey, we can
kind of branch out on things, I guess. =p
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/6/2003 12:15:41 PM | Message Detail |
Well,
I was the one to say it. The problem is just that... how it looks. I am
fully aware that the difference is two years (though I could have sworn
it was 3 for some reason), but these two years happened to be those
where the most drastic changes happened. I guess that's why Crono and
Kefka are considered old-school, but Cloud and Sephiroth are new-school.
---
If
Kefka were governor of California, he'd kill half the population to
solve the power problem, then 98% of what's left for the hell of it.
-GoldManiac | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 9/6/2003 2:12:02 PM | Message Detail |
Sorry I haven't been able to post here for the last while. School starting up and my new job have kept me very busy.
Well,
the second year is over. At least 2K3's final was a little close. Lot's
has been said about the final, and Kingdom Hearts, so I don't feel the
need it reiterate needlessly.
I wanted to write something about
my placing, and more importantly, the analysis topic's bracket
placing... but I can't seem to find the contest results. Anyone have
them? I can paraphrase though - both brackets were Squaresoft0wned.
Last year's results are up, so if 2K3's are down currently, I'll be
able to talk about that later.
Right now I'll speak my mind
about another contest. Cloud beating Link proved that we won't always
get the same results each year, and thus making another contest next
year much more likely.
"Poll of the Day
Should there be another Character Battle next year?
No, and never speak of it again 8.59% 8883
Probably not, unless changes are made 10.66% 11023
I don't care, do what you want 9.12% 9425
Why not, it was entertaining 30.55% 31586
Yes, I can hardly wait! 41.08% 42477
TOTAL VOTES 103394"
That probably looks really ugly on the boards, so you can check this link for reference as well:
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=1368
Wow,
that a lot of votes! It even got more votes than some of the actual
contest matches. Predictably, the inflated PotD vote totals didn't last
long (look at SCII's 60 000).
Anyway, an amazing 71.63%
percent of the voters are in favor of another contest, with only less
than 20% currently against the idea. 2K4 is looking really good right
now.
About changing the format, (and although kawaiifan may not
like it ^_^) I'd say leave it. It's based on the NCAA sheet, and while
it's not perfect, the setup on the whole is very effective. The better,
close matchups should be reserved for the later rounds. I don't want to
see any of the heavy hitters get eliminated immediately.
I am in
favor of seeing better characters in the competition though. I'm not
sure how CJayC chose the characters, did he go strictly by nominations,
or did he have to cut some characters with more nominations just so
more demographics/genres could be represented? Should Frog, more
popular, but in the end just another RPG character, take the place of
the less popular but sole puzzle-game representative Aiai? I'm not sure
what's better - although I suppose more popular characters would make
the game a lot more exciting. I think this year was much more fun than
2K2, most of the duds got dumped and since the average character was
more popular we saw a lot more close and exciting matches.
---
... | | From: Star Magician | Posted: 9/6/2003 3:18:23 PM | Message Detail |
I say the contest is fine how it is. It's not perfect, but besides Soul Calibur 2, what is?
---
The Golden Sun will rise again in 2004!
Soul Calibur 2...the Legend will never die! | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 9/6/2003 4:09:23 PM | Message Detail |
"I say the contest is fine how it is. It's not perfect, but besides Soul Calibur 2, what is?"
I need to buy that game soon.
---
... | | From: Cthulhu | Posted: 9/6/2003 8:50:39 PM | Message Detail |
Good
job kawaiifan, I think you did a great job of analyzing the strengths
and weaknesses of the various things CJ can try out to make the contest
more interesting
However one thing on Option 4, the different
company stratifications, I feel needs to be mentioned. While it may be
fun to give hope to those fans who support companies like Nintendo,
Square, Sega, and everyone else deep into the contest, I feel that like
non-interleague baseball, the idea's problems outweight the merits
First,
some companies will be dominated by one or two characters which is an
inherent problem in the contest. I dont see anyone else except Link
making it out of the Nintendo bracket and no one except Sonic would
make it out of Sega. Plus, the 8 straight days of one company may turn
off voters as you pointed out
Second, just because someone makes
it deep into the contest doesnt mean they have a snowball's chance in
hell of winning the whole thing. Scorpion last year was a sacrificial
lamb to Link even though Scorpion was in the Elite 8, boring matches
can happen in any round. The same thing may happen if, for example, the
Sega champion Sonic went up against the Square champion Cloud. Yeah
Sonic got far, but he's still toast. It might be fun to proclaim Sonic
as Sega champion, but its not like we didnt know that already. With
strong characters seeded at 1 and 2, we know they wont meet up until
later. This year's Elite 8 consisted of Link vs Samus, Cloud vs Sonic,
Mario vs Sephiroth, and Snake vs Mega Man. If you simply take a couple
of characters and switch them into different divisions, you'd pretty
much have your Company A vs Company B match right there. Its still
gonna be Nintendo, Square, Sega, and either Capcom(Mega Man) or
Konami(Snake) in the final four, no new companies will be represented.
Besides, this format will deprive us of intra-company matches of middle
tier characters. Bowser vs Yoshi was fun, but I felt Squall vs Luigi,
Ganon vs Magus, Zero vs Sonic, and Mario vs Shadow were even better.
Option 4 would deprive us of these matches
Lastly, company is
sometimes relative. Halo was designed by Bungee Software, not
Microsoft, but that still didnt prevent people from associating Master
Chief with Microsoft. Mega Man is Capcom, but a lot of people see him
as Nintendo. The Misc. company division outside of Nintendo, Square,
and Sega would be a very odd collection of characters
Your other
idea is interesting and could work, but would make picking brackets a
whole lot harder. Plus, we can see from last year and this year that
its impossible to get accurate seed ratings. Only 1 #3 seed actually
made it out of the second round whereas in your system, they'd get a
bye until the 3rd round. Such tampering with the brackets, I feel,
would drastically affect the contest negatively by giving a weak
character a high seed and dilute the later rounds with weaklings.
Theres no guaranteeing that one hot game wont make CJ overestimate the
main character's seed. If such a thing happened last year, Lara Croft
would have made it to the 4th round only to be utterly destroyed. Its
pretty anti-climatic. Since theres no way of ensuring perfect seeding,
I think byes are a bad idea
One solution might be to keep the
regular format and but schedule potential blowouts in the first round
in a double poll. We dont want to waste one whole day on #1 vs #16, but
if CJ did a double poll where you can vote for #1 vs #16 AND #8 vs #9,
then we would have gotten rid of the boredom factor. However, one
horrible thing about this would be that the contest would be severely
shortened and I think most of us like hanging around here for the
summer. Maybe CJ can do double polls only for #1 vs #16 and #2 vs #15
days, thus shortening the contest by only 8 days | | From: kawaiifan | Posted: 9/7/2003 7:27:09 AM | Message Detail |
Cthulhu wrote:
Good
job kawaiifan, I think you did a great job of analyzing the strengths
and weaknesses of the various things CJ can try out to make the contest
more interesting.
Thank you ^.^
I agree with all of the points that you raised about my 'option 4'.
To keep this post more concise, though, I won't quote them here. ^.^;;
Teratron's
suggestion (partitioning by generation instead of by manufacturer) is
probably similar to but considerably better than mine; and would permit
some quite interesting matchups, much more so than mine would.
However, I do feel the need to defend my 'option 5'....
The
following all assumes that next year will have a character contest at
least vaguely similar to that of the past two years, of course.
Plus, we can see from last year and this year that its impossible to get accurate seed ratings.
I'm afraid I completely disagree. ^.^;;;
The
fact that a number of the assigned seeds this year were quite
inaccurate (albeit not nearly as wildly so as last year), in no way
proves that accurate seeding is impossible ... merely that it wasn't
used in those particular cases.
Only 1 #3 seed actually made it out of the second round whereas in your system, they'd get a bye until the 3rd round.
True. But three of those 3 seeds were new to the tournament, and the other one (Kirby) I would have given a 5. Please see below.
Such
tampering with the brackets, I feel, would drastically affect the
contest negatively by giving a weak character a high seed and dilute
the later rounds with weaklings.
Please tell me which of
Alucard, Zelda, Ryu, Auron, Squall, Bowser, Aeris, Zero, Shadow, Tidus,
Ganondorf, Magus, Sonic, Solid Snake, Samus, Crono, Mario, Mega Man,
Sephiroth, Link, or Cloud you would consider to be weaklings.
Yoshi,
Kirby, and Dante are borderline cases, I admit; but as 6 seeds they
would receive only single byes, into the second round, which all three
reached this year anyway.
Theres no guaranteeing that one hot game wont make CJ overestimate the main character's seed.
In
my opinion, characters new the tournament, with no past tournament
record, should never be seeded any higher than 7, no matter how hot
their game may be.
If they're popular, they'll draw plenty of nominations, more than enough to enter the tournament with a 7 or lower seed.
If
they're really popular, they will defeat one or more opponents and do
very well in 2004, perhaps well enough to launch themselves into the
top 24, thereby earning themselves an automatic entry and a 6 or better
seed in 2005.
In other words: Let's let them prove themselves first. ^.^
If such a thing happened last year, Lara Croft would have made it to the 4th round only to be utterly destroyed.
Based
on last year's performance, Lara merited exactly a 7 seed this year ...
coincidentally identical to that which she was actually given. She did
disappoint this year, I agree; and if she is brought back next year, a
10-13 seed might be appropriate.
However, you may be referring
to the 1 seed that she was inexplicably granted before the 2002
competition. The actual seedings used in 2002 were mere guesses, since
at that time no-one had had any past performance by which to be gauged.
Such a deficiency no longer exists, and so should not concern us.
On
the other hand, if next year's contest should be radically different
(such as a game contest, or an oldschool character contest, or an all-
(or no-) RPG character contest), then I fully agree with you that a bye
system would be unsuitable, since very many of the entrants would have
insufficient evidence, if any at all, as to past performance to permit
accurate determination of their seeding. However, if it's a standard
character contest, we have plenty of information.
(continued)
---
Supporting Nakoruru, and her little sister Rimururu too!
| | From: kawaiifan | Posted: 9/7/2003 7:27:19 AM | Message Detail |
Haste2 wrote:
I'd
just like to see characters in undeserving positions in order to give
some of the weaker characters a chance to get in a win (especially more
than just 1 round)...and it definitely makes the contest more of a
challenge to predict in the beginning, as well. I'd just hate to see
every new character almost guaranteed to be knocked out by Round 2.
Random seeding or perhaps just more CJayC seeding could work well
because of this.
I agree.
Please note, though, that byes can accomplish the very same thing, too. ^.^
None of the new characters (nor anyone else) would have to face any
of the top 24 in the first round, so they would be guaranteed not to be
knocked out by them. And no-one would have to go up against any of the
top 12 until the third round at the earliest.
The very toughest
returning characters whom any newcomers might have to contend with in
the first round, would be about the level of a Knuckles, a Vercetti, a
Donkey Kong, or a Scorpion.
************
I feel that the
top 24 seeds (1 through 6) should be awarded based solely on past
performance, with the lower 40 (7 through 16) open to nominations.
Through their performance at the polls, the top 24 have already proven
their popularity, and earned the right to a high seed in the next
tournament.
My proposed seedings for 2004: (drawn directly from creativename's list ^.^ )
1) Cloud, Link, Sephiroth, Mega Man
2) Mario, Crono, Samus, Solid Snake
3) Sonic, Magus, Ganondorf, Tidus
4) Shadow, Zero, Aeris, Bowser
5) Squall, Auron, Ryu, Zelda
6) Alucard, Yoshi, Kirby, Dante
The actual seeds for 2003, and where I would have seeded them for 2003 based on the 2002 results:
1)
Link, Cloud, Mario, and Solid Snake, and 2) Samus, Sonic, Sephiroth,
and Mega Man clearly all belong at or near the top of the list.
3) Luigi was new, and should have been seeded no higher than 7.
3) Master Chief was new, and should have been seeded no higher than 7.
3) Kirby deserved a 5 seed.
3) Tommy Vercetti was new, and should have been seeded no higher than 7.
4) Sam Fisher was new, and should have been seeded no higher than 7.
4) Yoshi was new, and should have been seeded no higher than 7.
4) Crono deserved a 2 seed.
4) Dante deserved a 5 seed.
5) Tidus deserved a 3 seed.
5) Bowser was new, and should have been seeded no higher than 7.
5) Pacman deserved a 7 seed.
5) Ryu deserved a 3 seed.
6) Squall was seeded accurately. (!)
6) Sora was new, and should have been seeded no higher than 7.
6) Alucard deserved a 7 seed.
6) Donkey Kong deserved an 11 seed.
Now for the 2003 results:
Of the seven new characters given high seeds, who disappointed?
Luigi
clearly didn't live up to his 3 seed. Nor Master Chief his 3. Nor
Vercetti his 3. Nor Sam Fisher his 4. Nor Sora his 6. Yoshi also fell
short of his 4, albeit by a smaller margin.
Of the seven, who met or exceeded expectations?
Bowser was seeded 5, but performed like a 4.
Six new characters who didn't live up to their top-24 seeding, and only one who did.
************
In closing, I'd agree that it would be totally counterproductive to give an untested, unproven newcomer a bye.
I
want to see the new characters in action as soon as possible, to see
what they've got, and because it's unpredictable and fun. ^.^
The
byes are for the veterans who have already proven their strength, and
who shouldn't be required to prove it yet again in the first round at a
newcomer's expense. And via giving byes to the top 24, we would permit
more of the limited days of the tournament to be spent on entertaining
mid-level matchups, including ones with new characters, while still not
having to exclude the strongest characters from the tournament.
We know
Link can obliterate AiAi, as well as beat any of the following four by
a lesser but still sizeable margin ... but can Frog defeat Chun-Li? and
how does Sub-Zero stack up against Protoman? Let's save Link for later;
I want to see the other four first. ^.^
| | From: kawaiifan | Posted: 9/7/2003 7:28:57 AM | Message Detail |
I'll join the trend and post my suggested 2004 bracket. ^.^
In
this, I've generally tried to minimise rematches, since they tend to be
even more predictable (and thus somewhat less interesting) than others.
The following will work equally well both in a standard bracket, and in my 'byes' proposal.
The
7 seeds and below are left open for whoever gets nominated, with the
exception of Gordon Freeman whose two back-to-back abysmal performances
should in my opinion preclude his return. ^.^;;
North
1) Cloud, to continue the tradition set this year of the previous champion being given 1-North.
2) Samus, to keep her away from both Sephiroth and Link.
3)
Ganondorf, to keep him away from Link (same fanbase). He will likely
end up facing Samus, but the fanbase overlap should be much less here.
4) Shadow the Hedgehog, to keep him away from both Sonic (same fanbase) and Mario.
5)
Zelda, to keep her away from both Link (same fanbase) and Mega Man. Her
big match will be against Shadow; they are both popular supporting
characters in their respective series, making this battle even more
appropriate. She won't see Ganondorf unless she can then knock off
Cloud, which won't happen.
6) Dante, to keep him away from both
Crono and Ryu. I have a hunch that Dante vs. Ganondorf might be an
interesting match for some reason, but I can't quite put my finger on
why. ^.^; And Dante vs. Kirby would have been one of the best, most
evenly matched, and most anticipated bouts in tournament history, of
course ... but unfortunately they're both 6 seeds. ;.;
East
1) Mega Man, so that he won't see Sephiroth again unless they both reach the final.
2) Mario. Mario and Mega Man seem to be roughly equal in popularity -- let's see who emerges on top.
3)
Sonic the Hedgehog. The elusive Mario vs. Sonic match might now happen.
^.^ Sonic would have to defeat Alucard (or whoever beats Alucard) to
reach Mario, while in Mario's way would stand no-one higher than a 7
seed.
4) Bowser, to keep him away from Cloud. As a 4 seed, Bowser
would have to get past Mega Man before he sees Mario; so Bowser vs.
Mario, which would likely be a same-fanbase blowout, is unlikely to
take place. Besides, he'd have to beat Squall, in what should itself be
a good close match, just to reach Mega Man.
5) Squall, to keep him away from both Snake and Samus.
6) Alucard, to keep him away from both Cloud and Sephiroth.
South
1) Sephiroth
2) Crono. He won't have to worry about Mario again unless they both reach the final. ^.^
3) Magus, in hopes of seeing Crono vs. Magus, and to keep him away from Link.
4)
Aeris. We know who will win when she faces this division's 1 seed ...
but she wouldn't stand a chance against any of the other 1 seeds
either, and this one seems to be by far the most fitting for some
reason. ;.; Plus, this keeps her away from both Snake and Sonic.
5) Auron, to keep him away from Cloud.
6) Kirby < ( ^ - ^ ) >
West
1)
Link. We saw Link vs. Cloud and Cloud vs. Sephiroth in 2003, but the
last time we saw Link vs. Sephiroth was in 2002. The KH factor could
make this a very close match.
2) Solid Snake, to keep him away from Mega Man.
3) Tidus
4) Zero, to keep him away from both Mega Man (same fanbase) and Sonic.
5)
Ryu, to keep him away from Samus. While he is in the same division as
Snake, he'd have to get past both Zero and Link to meet Snake again.
6) Yoshi, to keep him away from Bowser.
---
Supporting Nakoruru, and her little sister Rimururu too!
| | From: Cthulhu | Posted: 9/7/2003 7:15:31 PM | Message Detail |
I'd change one thing about those brackets: I want a Mario vs Crono III :D
Other
than that, those are some very interesting matches and should be hell
on the brackets. I wouldnt standardize a system where only repeat
competitors would get a seed from #1-6, but thats more of a personal
preference than anything because I dislike rigidity
If this were
in effect, no new characters would face each other in the first round.
I think thats bad because it lessens speculation on their strengths.
Going into the match, Bowser vs Yoshi was still up in the air. Luigi vs
Squall was still fairly uncertain because Luigi beat a complete
unknown. To have an unknown face a known in the first round would make
prediction easier. Less discussion on the boards means less interest
since we'll be able to compare the newcomer's strength(if he wins) to
that of the old competitor. While such a comparison doesnt always lead
to accurate results, it still decreases random chance
Good idea
though, I hope CJ reads this topic or someone saves it and sends it to
him. I think it would definitely be a plus if he kept some of these
things in mind. Of course, I dont think its the best solution cause
I've still got my own theory of what would work best :D but my system
would call for a total revamping of the whole bracket system. It might,
however, if I'm lucky, severely lessen the powers of the Elite 9 to a
point where someone else might be able to win, or at least someone
other than Link, Cloud, and Sephiroth. I'll post that later if I can
write up a workable version of it | | Jump to Page: | | | | | | 7 | | | |
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