| Stats & Discussion -- Summer 2003 Contest -- Mark III |
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| From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/31/2003 11:10:56 PM | Message Detail |
Wow. I can't believe it. Link might be able to come back during the day... but even if he does, what about Sephiroth?
---
... |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/1/2003 12:47:43 AM | Message Detail |
So Link *****-slaps Sephiroth, then Mario, after Mario had beaten Cloud, thus proving that Mario is level with Cloud... right?
In theory, the tier should look like this:
Link
Mario, Cloud
Sephiroth
But this year, Sephiroth REALLY *****-slaps Mario, and Cloud is slowly beating Link.... doesn`t this look backwards?
To an extent, maybe. But I have played Kingdom Hearts all the way through. It is a great game, no matter how "kiddie" it is.
---
~~Voted best username on the SC2K3 board~~, Boards Hunted: 461
|
| From: chaos knight | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:20:31 AM | Message Detail |
If this continues, you will actually be able to hear tens of thousands of brackets shattering across the world tomorrow night.
---
Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS
|
| From: CC2680 | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:22:40 AM | Message Detail |
| It
shows that last year doesn't matter all that much. I've been saying
that the whole time but... However Link is far from out of this, but
Cloud is looking good right now. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:36:27 AM | Message Detail |
It
shows that last year doesn't matter all that much. I've been saying
that the whole time but... However Link is far from out of this, but
Cloud is looking good right now
On the contrary, last year
matters a lot. Most results have been amazingly consistent. Only where
there is an obvious outside factor at play have the results been
significantly different. In fact, Kingdom Hearts may be the only factor
to make a major difference.
It's odd, since the new Metroid
games were supposed to make the difference Kingdom Hearts did. One
would also think that there wasn't much demographic overlap (relatively
speaking) between original Metroid players and new ones. With the lack
of demographic overlap being the apparent reason for KH's influence,
one wonders why Samus didn't benefit because of this.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: CC2680 | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:41:32 AM | Message Detail |
KH
made a difference but I doubt it alone made a difference. There are
more factors to count, thats why it doesn't matter all that much for
the big characters. A lot of the newer voters could just simply enjoy
FF7 or whatever.
I know most of the earlier matches, and most of
the final competitors are the same, but I'm talking about the elite
matches. Obviously the characters that got there last year would most
likely get back, however when they get to that point it's completely
different.
|
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:43:27 AM | Message Detail |
Obviously
the characters that got there last year would most likely get back,
however when they get to that point it's completely different
The late round results have been almost exactly what you would've expected outside of Cloud and Sephiroth's improvements.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: CC2680 | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:47:41 AM | Message Detail |
| That
is true, well I guess it more or so applies to Cloud and Sephiroth and
whoever they face. Then again those are probably the 4 elite(well I
think Mario is a step down now). However yeah I mainly had Cloud and
Sephiroth in mind when I think about how things have changed(Obviously
KH had a impact regardless of how anyone feels about the game, yet I
doubt that's the only big reason). |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:51:12 AM | Message Detail |
The "Elite 5" theory needs to be increased to 7 now, with Link finally losing a match:
Link,
Mario, Cloud, Sephiroth, Crono, Solid Snake, and Megaman. EVERY year,
this will be what the contest comes down to, unless we see some new,
amazing character get introduced soon.
---
~~Voted best username on the SC2K3 board~~, Boards Hunted: 461
|
| From: Shake | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:51:29 AM | Message Detail |
This
underdog vote is one of the strongest factors in this competition. The
first year, Link was a 2 seed and Mario the favorite to win it all.
This year Link was the returning champion and he is the heavy favorite
going into any match. If Link had won this with ease, next year they
would have had to change the contest.
So a FFVII character wins
this year. Many believe 2 characters from a single game beating icons
with legions of games or series spanning 15 years is herecy. And we may
be looking at an all Final Fantasy VII Final now.
Now think
about next year. Link will be heavily pushed to beat the Final Fantasy
duo. Many will view Link as their best chance to beat them, and they
will probably be right. Link will be an underdog again, making him my
favorite to win next year. We will be holding close tabs on THREE
characters, as well as looking forward to another Mario vs Crono.
There
is a remote chance Link will still win this competition, and then he
will be surely beaten next year, because he will lose the support of a
lot of bracket voters , as well as many people complaining about Link
winning three years in a row.
Anyway, by making this match close
mister Strife has made the Summer Contest unpredictable again. We have
no idea who will win the final or the match that is going on now. And
next year will be even better.
Enjoy the contest, thanks to Cloud Strife.
I
pasted and copy'd this from my topic, because I wanted the experts to
look at my argument. Maybe we underestimated some of the anti-votes?
---
OH
MAH GAWD,WHAT THE HELL IS CJAYC DOING WITH THAT DAMN CHAIR!Mario's
up!Dammit,not like this!Mario pins Crono! Its a damn screwjob, by gawd! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 2:02:11 AM | Message Detail |
The "Elite 5" theory needs to be increased to 7 now, with Link finally losing a match:
Well, it's only the Elite 3--Link, Cloud, Sephiroth. No one is close.
Mega
Man, Mario, Crono, Sonic, Samus, and if you extend it maybe
Snake...these guys represent the next tier. None are close to the top 3.
Shake,
The
underdog vote doesn't appear to be any sort of factor. Everything that
has happened can be explained quite easily without it.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 2:06:30 AM | Message Detail |
Oh,
and I don't want to completely dismiss the underdog vote. It's just
that there's no need for it, nor any evidence for it. Anti-votes due to
being favored clearly are not needed to explain Mario's performance
last year, as he did essentially the same this year. The only
difference was that he ran into the Sephiroth monster rather than the
Link monster. Link's performance this year is also right in line with
last year's, once you adjust for how Cloud did against Sonic.
Also, bracket-voting should counter any underdog factor, if there is one.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: MyWorldIsSquare | Posted: 9/1/2003 2:10:01 AM | Message Detail |
Creativename
- it flucuates every year. Last year, Mario, Crono, and Link were the
three most dominant, with Cloud Strife not all too far behind. Link was
*by far* the most powerful of them all.
This year, it's
entirely different. Mega Man looks a bit stronger, but I'd say the most
improved is Sephiroth, who has beaten Mario by Link-like levels without
the split fanbase. Cloud is doing great too.
Link's
performance in 2002 was due to a game - Wind Waker. Cloud and Sephy's
performance this year, as well as Squall's dramatically improved
performance, was due to a game - Kingdom Hearts. If last year was the
year of the "Wind Waker", then this year was KH's year, as Cloud and
Sephy were introduced to a whole new demographic of gamers who have
pushed them over the top.
But what that means is, next year
could be a whole new ballpark. There are no "tiers" of players that
stay absolutely equal year by year. MGS3 is coming out...Snake could
suddenly show dominance that year. If Chrono Break were to
hypothetically reintroduce characters like Crono or Magus, we'd see
those two do extremely well. It's a year by year basis kind of thing,
and this year Kingdom Hearts has proven to be the game that has most
influenced voting patterns (even if Cloud loses, the close fight he put
up renders this point true).
Let's wait to see what next year brings...
---
That`s for Crono, you fatassed Italian-wannabe waterpistol-packing plumber boy!! ~ UltimaterializerX |
| From: CC2680 | Posted: 9/1/2003 2:13:59 AM | Message Detail |
| I
still think Cloud was a bit more impressive then Crono last year. They
both lost to Mario by similar counts, however the vote total was
ridiculous compared to anything we saw at that time. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 2:19:48 AM | Message Detail |
This year, it's entirely different. Mega Man looks a bit stronger,
Actually,
both Mega Man and Snake look essentially the same as they did last
year. Pretty much every character that came back from last year's
contest does, in fact.
but I'd say the most improved is
Sephiroth, who has beaten Mario by Link-like levels without the split
fanbase. Cloud is doing great too.
Cloud seems to be more
improved than Sephiroth, actually. Last year it seems Sephiroth was a
decent bit stronger than Cloud (though this may have been entirely due
to PGC). This year they look almost exactly equal.
But what
that means is, next year could be a whole new ballpark. There are no
"tiers" of players that stay absolutely equal year by year.
Yes, of course. Cloud and Sephiroth moved into the tier this year, it may change next year. It's just that basically nothing
changed this year except for KH. Shocking, but true. So moving into the
top tier is no easy feat, if a game as lauded as Metroid Prime doesn't
get you there. Also, the current top-tier guys aren't guaranteed to
stay, but aren't likely to decrease in popularity by any significant
amount. No one seems less popular this year, actually, outside of
Bomberman and maybe Jill (though Squall's improvement would
easily explain her "poor" performance). Some would say Sonic and Mario
are weaker, but this would be erroneous. The data clearly points at
their opponents being stronger, rather then them being weaker.
As
for Snake, I'd say Twin Snakes would make more of a difference that
MGS3, heh. Twin Snakes can expand his base demographically if it's
successful, while MGS3 should have not very much impact, from what we
know of the game so far ;)
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2003 3:53:30 AM | Message Detail |
KA-BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANG!!!
Multiply this by 17571 and you'll have a pretty good idea of what's
going on. That means it's over for me... it was good while it lasted.
And now, we can call Cloud Strife as the winner of the 2003 AND 2004 Summer Contests.
Unless... morning votes + CLUTCH move anyone? Or why not... PGC? Nah, I'm dreaming.
Aftermath seedings coming later today.
West Final Review and Semifinal #2 Preview
Megaman didn't whip Snake too hard, but he still won his division with little trouble.
The
more I think about it, the more I think CJayC made the West weak on
purpose, without any strong Nintendo or Square contenders, to allow
someone else to shine. I mean, Zelda? DK? Yuna?
Now he looks so
out of place among the Links, Clouds and Sephiroths of this world...
he'll be in for a swift exit next round. After all, isn't Cloud kicking
Link's ass right now?
Semifinal #1 Review - Tomorrow, OK? So many things can or cannot happen.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 122/128, 0 lost . . . . T-10 (15-way)
Today's pick: Link over Cloud |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2003 4:24:09 AM | Message Detail |
DIVISION FINALS PREDICTIONS
2003
72.17% . Link
54.13% . Cloud
32.76% . Sephiroth
14.53% . Megaman
All-Time
72.17% . 2003 Link
57.01% . 2002 Link
54.13% . 2003 Cloud
44.24% . 2002 Mario
38.34% . 2002 Sephiroth
32.76% . 2003 Sephiroth
14.63% . 2002 Crono
14.53% . 2003 Megaman
Not much comment here, Link dominates, yadda yadda yadda. But I can't wait to see TODAY'S percentage. This will be THE PITS!!!
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 122/128, 0 lost . . . . T-10 (15-way)
Today's pick: Link over Cloud |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2003 4:31:26 AM | Message Detail |
OVERALL STANDINGS BY DIVISION + AFTERMATH SEEDINGS
North
1. 50.00% Link (0)
2. 37.94% Samus (0)
3. 34.93% Magus (+10)
4. 34.72% Ganondorf (+8)
5. 34.25% Tidus (0)
6. 31.72% Squall (0)
7. 25.38% Jill (+4)
8. 25.24% Luigi (-5)
9. 23.58% Sam Fisher (-5)
10. 22.95% KOS-MOS (-3)
11. 18.71% Isaac (+4)
12. 17.54% Fox (-3)
13. 17.45% Crash (-3)
14. 12.85% Ratchet (0)
15. 10.99% Pikachu (-7)
16. 08.65% AiAi (0)
East
1. 50.00% Cloud (0)
2. 33.79% Sonic (0)
3. 32.21% Zero (+4)
4. 31.75% Aeris (+7)
5. 29.97% Bowser (0)
6. 27.80% Auron (+2)
7. 26.17% Yoshi (-3)
8. 25.30% Master Chief (-5)
9. 23.94% Scorpion (+1)
10. 23.80% Felix (+4)
11. 21.17% Sora (-5)
12. 21.01% Ken (+3)
13. 19.75% Tails (-4)
14. 17.55% Conker (-1)
15. 14.94% Ness (-3)
16. 13.09% CATS (0)
South
1. 50.00% Sephiroth (+1)
2. 38.40% Mario (-1)
3. 38.36% Crono (+1)
4. 34.48% Shadow (+5)
5. 27.72% Alucard (+1)
6. 26.49% Kirby (-3)
7. 24.21% Wario (+2)
8. 22.43% Ramza (+6)
9. 19.70% Bomberman (+2)
10. 18.00% Raziel (+5)
11. 17.33% Max Payne (-1)
12. 16.17% Kefka (0)
13. 15.95% Gordon Freeman (-6)
14. 15.87% Pac-Man (-9)
15. 10.89% Tom Nook (-2)
16. 08.89% Olimar (0)
Lower West
1. 50.00% Megaman (+1)
2. 46.50% Snake (-1)
3. 39.75% Ryu (+2)
4. 39.25% Zelda (+6)
5. 36.56% Dante (-1)
6. 34,29% Knuckles (+2)
7. 33.14% Vercetti (-4)
8. 32.82% DK (-2)
9. 30.64% Yuna (0)
10. 29.60% Lara (-3)
11. 24.67% Vyse (0)
12. 23.91% Duke (0)
13. 23.04% Kite (+1)
14. 16.34% Ryo (-1)
15. 15.92% Raiden (+1)
16. 11.04% Resetti (-1)
Most underseeded: Magus (+10), Ganondorf (+8), Aeris (+7), Ramza and Zelda (+6)
Most overseeded: Pac-Man (-9), Pikachu (-7), Gordon (-6), Luigi, Sam Fisher, Master Chief and Sora (-5)
Comments
-LOL, Ceej did a great job of underestimating the supporting Zelda cast. And Magus too. How he got a 13 is beyond me.
-If
you told me in June that Kefka deserved his 12-seed, I would have
called you crazy. Speaking of Kefka, a much wanted Sephiroth Kefka
would have ended 84-16... and definitely not in Kefka's favor.
-CATS
got an 11-seed out of these last year... but with the likely champion
and 14 good competitors, he has no chance to survive make his time.
-Ceej... no matter how many 11-seeds you put on Aeris, she won't start performing like one anytime soon.
-Jill vs. KOS-MOS in round 1... hehehe...
-I wonded if the overall rankings will mean anything at all... I'm expecting Cloud to smite Sephiroth.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 122/128, 0 lost . . . . T-10 (15-way)
Today's pick: Link over Cloud |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 4:32:56 AM | Message Detail |
But I can't wait to see TODAY'S percentage. This will be THE PITS!!!
One would think so. But, remember that a lot more people picked Squall and such to go far than the experts would have thought.
Given
that Cloud is apparently about Link's level in popularity this year, a
lot of those fans probably had him beating Link. Not most of course,
but I still think the amount of people who picked Cloud to be in the
finals might be higher than the 14% who picked Mega Man to be in the
Final Four. Which, frankly, is quite absurd. Whoever thought (before
this contest started) that Cloud was more likely to beat Link than Mega
Man was to beat Snake must've been out of their ****ing minds.
Hmph.
Actually, that brings up an interesting point. Whoever wins this
contest (assuming Link does lose, which shouldn't be taken for granted)
will be someone that had either Cloud or Sephiroth winning. I'm
actually guessing that this would *not* have been the result of
in-depth analysis, but rather what I dub "fanboy luck".
Perhaps that should make Slowflake and others like him feel a little bit better ;)
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 4:35:17 AM | Message Detail |
CATS
got an 11-seed out of these last year... but with the likely champion
and 14 good competitors, he has no chance to survive make his time
LOL. Even after all this time, that still made me laugh.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Star Magician | Posted: 9/1/2003 4:36:24 AM | Message Detail |
Bwahahahaha!!!!
Link is going DOWN!! I LOVE YOU CLOUD!!!
*ahem*
Okay, calm down, Link still could make a comeback. It's not over yet...
But it does look like we'll have a FF7 hero vs. villian championship match.
---
I am the shadow, the keeper of light. If you want the sun's power, show me your own. ~Dullahan
Currently supporting Cloud and Mega Man. |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2003 4:37:57 AM | Message Detail |
I
agree... EACH AND EVERY SIGN pointed to a Link win, no matter how you
looked at it. Kingdom Hearts and a bunch of cameos were completely
overlooked, and they were probably discarded because they were just
that, cameos.
Oh well, I have no regrets. I would just have had
a decent shot at a money prize had Link won. Which is pretty good in
itself... everyone said that a cookie-cutter wouldn't get anyone
anywhere, and there isn't much cookie-cutter-er than my bracket.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 122/128, 0 lost . . . . T-10 (15-way)
Today's pick: Link over Cloud |
| From: Ncr | Posted: 9/1/2003 4:41:20 AM | Message Detail |
I agree... EACH AND EVERY SIGN pointed to a Link win, no matter how you looked at it
I strongly disagree.
For example, Cloud scored 66% on sonic while link scored 65% on Magus.
And we saw how Magus didn't live up to the hype. Just THIS AND seph's crushing of mario pointed heavily towards a cloud victory.
You just totally missed/ignored/dismissed it.
I knew Cloud was gonna win personally.
---
sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16 |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2003 4:41:36 AM | Message Detail |
I meant in June.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 122/128, 0 lost . . . . T-10 (15-way)
Today's pick: Link over Cloud |
| From: Ncr | Posted: 9/1/2003 4:42:19 AM | Message Detail |
oh.. well.. I got link on my bracket because of link's prowess last year too >_<
---
sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16 |
| From: Cid | Posted: 9/1/2003 6:12:34 AM | Message Detail |
Damn, I really had my heart set on winning a prize. And I just made it into the top 5.
*sigh*
*walks off*
---
Time to bring it down again. Don't just call me pessimist. Try and read between the lines.- Tool |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2003 7:40:23 AM | Message Detail |
This
is unbelievable. Now Link is coming back! If he comes back within
shooting distance of Cloud, we could see yet another "clutch" move...
Remember
what I said about the Shadow fanboys and their rabidness? I went
against them in my bracket... wrong move. Now I also went against the
rabid Cloud fanboys... do you know exactly how rabid they are? They are
even among Nintendo fans! Every time someone asks "who do you want to
be in SSB3", there will always be some loser who says "Cloud and
Sephiroth". Come on, they'll never be there. Though Cloud would make a
good replacement for Sandbag...
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 122/128, 0 lost . . . . T-10 (15-way)
Today's pick: Link over Cloud |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 9/1/2003 10:21:03 AM | Message Detail |
| Wow,
you leave for college for one day, and then the next all hell breaks
loose. I know we all talked about Cloud taking down Link, but how many
of us actually believed it? Anyway, I can't stay too long since I'm
using the school library's computers and not my own yet. And while I'm
glad in the bracket sense that Link lost, I can't celebrate too
much...I picked Mega Man to take it over Link! DOH! |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 9/1/2003 10:27:25 AM | Message Detail |
I always felt that Cloud had the best chance out of all the characters of beating Link, but I didn't think he'd actually do
it. I just thought he'd put up a decent fight and then bow out like all
the rest. But now it looks like he's really going to hold on. Wow.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Old Master Q | Posted: 9/1/2003 10:43:33 AM | Message Detail |
*sings*
IIiii--- have Clouuuuud---beeaating Liiiink--- in my braaaaacket---
>_>
*runs*
---
Done for in the Sum2k3 contest |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:36:18 PM | Message Detail |
Stats site news:
Everything's
basically updated to the end of the fourth round. None of the fourth
round sections are up, but the stats are there in the main sections.
I'm having trouble catching up on everything else though. I don't even
have enough time each day to complete the new stuff, let alone catch up
on the rest, so I probably won't get some of it finished until after
the contest ends. But it will all get done eventually. :)
P.S. New poll up.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Yesmar | Posted: 9/1/2003 1:43:41 PM | Message Detail |
Who do you think will improve the most when next year comes around?
I
think Snake will definitely be a lot better. I don't think either MGS
game will have come out by then, but the hype should be really huge.
And who will improve the most. . .
Mario!!!
He's
got SMA4, Mario & Luigi, and Double Dash coming out, and that's
just this year. Provided none of these are flops, Mario's standings
will improve some. Especially with Mario & Luigi being an RPG. I'm
really interested in seeing how much this will help him.
---
Evile Ninja Team Member
The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker |
| From: Seijun | Posted: 9/1/2003 3:10:24 PM | Message Detail |
How
interesting. Mario beats Cloud last year, and Sephiroth slaughters him
this year. Link slaughters Sephy last year, and Cloud beats him this
year (provided Link doesn't make any massive last minute comebacks).
It's almost like Cloud and Sephy are avenging each other's loss or something ^^;;
And
I don't think Mario's new games will give him that big a boost. If
that's the case, Megaman would have a popularity jolt each year. ^^;;
---
Apparently
Shion is more concerned with her weapon of mass destruction
appreciating the beauty of spring and the sweetness of a baby's smile. |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/1/2003 3:19:05 PM | Message Detail |
Something
funny... if Sephiroth pulls a rabbit out of his hat and beats Cloud,
then all Summer Contest champions will have been second seeds in the
South division. And even if he loses to Cloud, which he probably will,
providing he beats Megaman tomorrow, which is pretty much a no-brainer
at this point, then this is still the lucky spot to get to the finals.
And
I still can't fully realize what's happening... I really don't see
anything big coming Link's way until next year, and same for Cloud, so
it's a safe bet that Cloud will win next year as well. And if Link and
Sephiroth are on the same half of the bracket, which they probably
will, this will be hella interesting. As a matter of fact, if there's a
contest next year of course, I can tell you who the 1-seeds will be:
North: Cloud
East: Mario
South: Link
West: Sephiroth
That's my prediction. We'll see in 9 months...
Mario
improving next year? Possible, but Link had Wind Waker and he's at last
year's level. But... if Mario and Luigi is actually good and gets
SMRPG-like praise, then anything is possible... and if Luigi is
playable, just imagine! Squall rematch anyone?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 122/128, 0 lost . . . . T-10 (15-way)
Today's pick: Link over Cloud |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 9/1/2003 6:43:41 PM | Message Detail |
Does
anyone think CJayC was TRYING to make Link lose the entire time? Cloud
gets the Kingdom Hearts pic, while Link gets the poor Cel-Shadedness...
=P
I'm not terribly surprised Cloud is winning...I went on
vacation for a couple days and used the info I had from up to the first
hour of Mario vs. Sephiroth to do some analyzing (especially with Magus
somehow outperforming Sonic)...and I had to be extremely one-sided to
see Link beating Cloud. I just WISH there was some sort of way that we
could have predicted Cloud to have gotten that much more popularity
before the contest started, but...there was none.
I've always
dismissed the Kingom-Hearts factor...I figured it was miniscule. Hey, I
still find it hard to believe that that factor really made that much of
a difference, but perhaps the site has flooded with Final Fantasy
fanboys and more mainstream gamers as well. (wait, except for Knux vs.
Yuna...hm...well, Auron and Tidus did better than I expected, at least)
Well,
I do believe the same-fanbase factor does exist after all, because I
don't think Cloud would be ahead of Link otherwise. =p Of course,
perhaps it just doesn't apply to certain situations such as Samus vs.
Link...it makes sense that the Nintendo fans wouldn't necessarily all
stack up with Link, because Samus is totally different and has her
great (and new) games. Mario vs. Donkey Kong on the other hand...
Now,
about my statement that Mario could do well against any non-Nintendo
character...that was beat down pretty badly, now wasn't it? =p Mario
vs. Crono really fooled me. They truly are just about equal. Well, at
least my hypothesis on that heroes perform better than villains among
the most popular characters could still stand. =p
For tomorrow,
Mega Man is going to be sufficiently owned, unfortunately and
obviously. I can't say anything more. I give him a hand in being in the
well-deserved final 4.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Cthulhu | Posted: 9/1/2003 6:56:15 PM | Message Detail |
The
next battle between Sephiroth and Megaman should give us a good idea of
approximately how many cheaters and multiple voters there are,
depending on how close the battle is
Given that its reasonable
to assume that Cloud = Sephiroth based on their battle with Alucard,
Cloud's(thus far) beating of Link who got 62% against Mario,
Sephiroth's beating of Mario with 61%, and the fact that they come from
the same game, then we can also assume that Sephiroth would have lost
to Mario also in 2002. We can also assume that Cloud would have beaten
Mario this year by similar margins
Still working on the
assumption that Cloud = Sephiroth, Mario facing Cloud/Sephiroth in
different years is a good gauge of just how much the Kingdom Hearts
factor helped these two. So logically, Sephiroth should also beat
Megaman with approximately 60%-65%
Here's where the cheaters
come in: We can probably expect massive retaliation from the
anti-Square fans, the Nintendo fans, and just about everybody else who
doesnt want an FFVII finals. Sephiroth vs Megaman is their one last
chance to do that. If Sephiroth gets significantly below projections,
say 55%, then we will know just about how many cheaters there are by
subtracting that anamolous percentage from anywhere between 60% and
65%, then looking at the vote totals
Some people might be too
hopeless to cheat seeing that Megaman is generally thought of as being
just a speedbump for Sephiroth on the way to the finals, but its the
penultimate match, theres really nothing afterwards for them, so I
believe they will be sufficiently motivated |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 9/1/2003 7:51:55 PM | Message Detail |
Semifinal 2 of 2 Preview: Sephiroth vs Mega Man
Bracket Pick: Seph over Mega Man Prediction: Seph by 56.20%
Ill
admit it...I am shocked and surprised as are all of my fellow experts
at Link being bested by Cloud, with Square sending Nintendo's hopes and
dreams to the depths of defeat.
It is Capcom's chance in the
spotlight to shine, with their most original, most beloved, longest
lasting character...the lovable Blue Bomber, Mega Man. He faces the
second of Square's bipolar axis of FF7 dominance, Sephiroth.
I
never thought it possible, but now that it is possible, and very
likely, it intrigues me. An all FF7 final between the hero and the
villain. The two leads of Square's greatest game, of the RPG that
shattered sales records, converted many non RPG players to become
players of them, and earned Square enough profits to invest in an
ultimately lousy movie...
But enough of that. I had Seph winning
it all from the start. Part of that was cause I knew his bracket and
the West overall was weaker than the North and East, and figured he
could beat anyone in it without problems. I figured only Mario of the
32 characters in the South and West would be troublesome. Needless to
say, he was no trouble. Sadly, Mega Man wont be any trouble either.
Sure
the angry Nintendites and broken bracket voters will vote Mega, but
this I believe is counteracted by the Square and RPG/K. Hearts
contingent and the Seph is still in my bracket voters...i.e. the Seph
to win it voters but also the Seph to win this but lose in the finals
voters. Casuals will go both ways, some for Mega for love of his 100+
games, to some for Seph for his 'cool' pics, his name being cool, the
all FF7 final 'gimmick'...etc. Kids are easily swayed by pics and names
and novelties like an all one game or all one company final...cant ever
forget those intangibles!
Overall, Seph has more intangibles
than Mega Man in his favor, which will propel him to a solid victory
but which will be lower than it would be at any other time cause of
bitter anti-Cloud revenge for Link's loss votes. An all FF7 final...its
gonna happen. And I for one, look forward to analyzing it tomorrow
night!
---
Trivia 9 Team: CheeseStrikesBack! Today: Go Seph!
"Cloud...bring me the Keystone" -Seph, FF7 |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 7:58:08 PM | Message Detail |
IIiii--- have Clouuuuud---beeaating Liiiink--- in my braaaaacket---
*cough*
"dumb fanboy luck"
*cough*
;)
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 8:19:19 PM | Message Detail |
I've always dismissed the Kingom-Hearts factor...I figured it was miniscule
Me too, friend. Me too.
It wasn't until Squall vs. Samus that I first considered Cloud could actually beat Link. Even that was only a minor
suspicion though. Not until the results of Cloud vs. Sonic, did I truly
realize that Cloud had at least a 50% chance of winning.
Well, I do believe the same-fanbase factor does exist after all, because I don't think Cloud would be ahead of Link otherwise
? Sorry, but I do not understand this at all...?
Anyway,
Cloud is simply more popular than Link is this year, and Link last
year. The numbers bear this out. Nothing other than the KH factor is
necessary to explain this, which is why things such political
considerations as "revenge votes", "bracket votes", etc. appear to be
completely negligible. Cloud is basically doing exactly what you would
think he would do without these factors, assuming Sonic and Link have
the same popularity levels as last year.
Well, at least my hypothesis on that heroes perform better than villains among the most popular characters could still stand.
I
must disagree with this :) Of course, the main character will almost
always do much better than secondary characters/villains/NPCs, ceteris
paribus. But I don't think this applies to Cloud vs. Sephiroth.
I see Cloud as a slight
favorite...but his victory against Sephiroth is far from assured. And
him being the hero has nothing to do with it; it's just that both are
on pretty equal popularity levels. I do not expect this match to go
more than 55/45, because the same fanbase factors shouldn't make change
things by more than 2-3% (poll-wise).
We can also assume that Cloud would have beaten Mario this year by similar margins
Yes.
If Sephiroth gets significantly below projections, say 55%, then we
will know just about how many cheaters there are by subtracting that
anamolous percentage from anywhere between 60% and 65%, then looking at
the vote totals
I don't know about "cheaters"--the number of
votes affected by cheating appears to be close to 1,000 only in the
most extreme cases--but that might be a decent estimate for the sum of
"political factors". The calculations work out to Sephiroth getting
between 58.6%-61.1%. However, I doubt that "revenge" and stuff affects
anything in more than trivial ways. There's just no evidence for it,
nor any need for it.
I will say again how absolutely
dumbfounded I am that this year's contest results appear to be almost
exactly the same as last years. The linearly transitive assumptions of the Recursive Model hold so well, it's scary. There's basically 3 things that changed:
1) Kingdom Hearts Factor
2) Mario vs. Donkey Kong last year results in underestimation of Donkey Kong
3) Bomberman wasn't as popular as last year
And...that's
it. Nothing else seems to be necessary. The more I think about this,
the more I'm shocked. How could the linearity and transitivity
assumptions hold THAT well...? Even when I did the model, and I thought
that it would probably hold pretty well, I never expected it to be so goddamn accurate. Cloud vs. Sonic basically predicted Cloud vs. Link right on the nose.
Makes you wonder how much things will really change next year, if Kingdom Hearts was the only
thing that affected this contest. No other games or political factors
did jack squat? Wow. Not even the passage of one full year did anything.
Of
course, even if nothing changes next year (if there is a next year),
any of Link, Cloud, or Sephiroth could win--unless something else
happens, the difference between Link and Cloud shows little reason to
truly favor one over the other next year, if they should meet. Cloud
maybe would be a slight favorite, but it'd be very hard to call. As
would Sephiroth vs. Link, and unless it's not that close on Wednesday,
Cloud vs. Sephiroth next year would be a toss-up too.
---
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: RamzaB | Posted: 9/1/2003 8:26:52 PM | Message Detail |
Could
somebody explain something? I don't understand why everyone is
surprised cloud's winning. If you take a look at the voting, cloud has
had a larger fan base every single round this year. I also don't
understand why there's so much surprise about how high the total is.
Both link and cloud average better than 75k votes per round, it's not
surprising both totals are high.
---
Yes, I have played FF6.
Proud warrior of THE LUCUS BLIGHT ARMY |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 8:50:37 PM | Message Detail |
Could
somebody explain something? I don't understand why everyone is
surprised cloud's winning. If you take a look at the voting, cloud has
had a larger fan base every single round this year. I also don't
understand why there's so much surprise about how high the total is.
Both link and cloud average better than 75k votes per round, it's not
surprising both totals are high.
RamzaB (great name BTW! I
started a pro-Ramza club earlier in the contest), everything you said
is correct. The "masses" aren't as enlightened as those who post in
this topic, however. The lack of rational, logical thinking on the vast
majority of topics on this board never ceases leave me flabbergasted.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/1/2003 10:15:15 PM | Message Detail |
Coincidentally
enough, the amount of people who had Cloud correctly advancing to the
Finals was 13.37%, of all numbers. Weird stuff.
That's also the
lowest for any match so far, beating out Mega Man's "record" for
defeating Snake. Though of course the lowest will be for the champion,
since Sephiroth wasn't champion in that that many brackets (he was
picked in about 8-9% of the brackets, IIRC). Cloud would be even lower
than this.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Terran | Posted: 9/1/2003 10:18:46 PM | Message Detail |
I wonder how many would have correctly predicted Sephiroth beating MegaMan (assuming he wins)...
32.76%
of people choose Sephiroth to go this far, and I imagine that Solid
Snake and MegaMan where both considered prime candidates to goto the
Finals as well. Ironically Tommy also was alot of people's choice to
win this competition...
---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
Bracket Points/Rec: 123 out of 144/50-11 (81.97%) Picked: Sephiroth |
| From: Old Master Q | Posted: 9/1/2003 10:21:56 PM | Message Detail |
ey
now.. I had written up a couple posts in the past Stats &
Discussion topics about how Cloud had a very good chance at beating
Link.
but NoOOOo, nobody listened!! =P haha I'm just playin.. I myself am done for this tournament anyway.
Basically
I said.. had Cloud not run into Mario and all the PGC madness last
year, he could have very well defeated last year and won the whole
thing imo. Even last year, he performed exceptionally well. It was just
unfortunate of him to be put into the same backet as Mario.
speaking of which...
Next year, have Link Cloud and Sephiroth in the same bracket! simple. as. that.
---
Done for in the Sum2k3 contest |
| From: Old Master Q | Posted: 9/1/2003 10:22:38 PM | Message Detail |
woops.. could very well have defeated Link last year =P
---
Done for in the Sum2k3 contest |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/2/2003 6:01:58 AM | Message Detail |
Cloud
beating Link last year is a little far-fetched IMO. The KH factor is a
powerful one... last year Seph/Mega was mighty close, then this year we
get 60-40. If it gives 10 points to Cloud and Sephiroth... we could
assume Link would have beaten Cloud 58-42 last year.
Personally,
Cloud vs. Bowser began worrying me about Cloud beating Link, but I put
the blame at the wrong place. Speaking of which, Cloud made everyone in
the East look like a million dollars yesterday by beating Link.
But
then Cloud vs. Sonic rolled around... and that was, like many others,
the evidence that Cloud could win the whole thing (I don't think
Sephiroth will be a threat).
Interesting... more than 1 picker
out of 8 picked Cloud to win. We'll never get to know Link's
percentage... probably in the 50s.
Hmmm... why was CJayC so
hell-bent on using the Wind Waker pics? There was a much wider variety
for Cloud and Sephiroth, excluding the round 4 and 5 repeats.
Matches
that would be cool to see next year: Mario vs. Samus and Mario vs.
Megaman. The three seem about equal, with Samus doing a little better
than Mario against Link and Megaman, a bit better against him against
Sephiroth.
Mark my words... you just saw Cloud going against all
the brackets and winning. I say that over half of the brackets will
have the Cloud/Sephiroth winner for the 2004 championship... making
Cloud (or Sephiroth, if he beats him) even more powerful. And there's
always the possibility of FF7 getting some publicity among the GameFAQs
users... everyone and their goldfish have played a Zelda game, but not
everyone played FF7. Plus, Link is at the point where he can't win much
more popularity when a new game comes out. Cloud and Sephiroth are not
yet there.
Oh, if there's a KH2, I want Kefka in there. Then
MAYBE he'll be able to contend a bit better. Performing worse than Max
Payne doesn't cut it, sorry. I fear for his admission next year.
Now, the question of the day: Could have Link survived Sephiroth?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 122/144, 32 lost . . . . T-146 (38-way)
Today's pick: Sephiroth over Megaman |
| From: creativename | Posted: 9/2/2003 6:49:36 AM | Message Detail |
Cloud vs. Sephiroth is unpredictable.
The
expected winner changes depending on the numbers you use. If you assume
that Link is unchanged from '02, and use Cloud vs. Link numbers, you
get that Cloud = 1.067x Link '02. Also, if you go by Sephiroth's
victory over Mario and Mario's defeat to Link from last year, you get
Sephiroth = 0.961x Link '02. This results in an expectation of Cloud
with 52.6% against Sephiroth.
However, if you use the Sephiroth
vs. Mega Man numbers (and assume that Sephiroth will beat him 60/40),
then you end up with Sephiroth = 1.125x Link '02 and Sephiroth beating
Cloud with 51.3%.
And if you use Cloud's numbers against Sonic, you have Cloud blowing Sephiroth out.
In
the end, you have to put Cloud as the favorite. He's also more likely
to blow Sephiroth out than Sephiroth is to blow Cloud out, it seems.
But I think it'll be close. My "best numbers" have Cloud winning with 51.4%.
I'll be rooting for Sephiroth though.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 9/2/2003 7:11:25 AM | Message Detail |
Now, the question of the day: Could have Link survived Sephiroth?
I
dont think so. Look at Seph destroying Mega Man...way higher than we
all thought I do believe. It has already jumped nicely from early in
the poll. I feel Seph would have beat Link comparably to how Cloud did
it. Maybe even by more...cause if Sephiroth keeps this up...the Blue
Bomber will be forever scarred. This is PWNed if I ever saw it...
Kefka in KH2? I would LOVE to see that myself. Also Frog and Magus...they would be cool to see in there as well.
Matches
for next year: well lets start that off with the idea that I would love
to see Mario and Sonic in the same division as 1 and 2 seeds, likely
then facing off in the Elite Eight, to settle that old argument from
the 16 bit days. Would definitely be a hot one. As long as the #1 and 2
seeds, assuming they are the same 8 people as before, are mixed up and
shuffled around it should stay interesting. Also keep Mario and Crono
apart, at least not in the same division. That annoying crying all over
the boards ticked me off. Why risk it again?
I already cant wait till next year...a shame it has to end tomorrow.
---
Trivia 9: CheeseStrikesBack! Score: 113/160 "Go Seph!"
"It is my destiny to rule the Planet..." -Seph, FF7 |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 9/2/2003 9:54:16 AM | Message Detail |
Creativename
- in that type of match, numbers go straight out of the window. As what
a poster above said, only three things changed since last year, and one
of them is the side effect of Mario vs. DK. I fully expect tomorrow's
match to have the same kind of side effect.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 122/144, 32 lost . . . . T-146 (38-way)
Today's pick: Sephiroth over Megaman |
| From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 9/2/2003 9:55:19 AM | Message Detail |
.......well......
Cloud vs Sephiroth....
*ahem*
....I dunno.
Great job, everyone.
Time to pack it up!
*packs up*
Poor Mega Man....*sniff*
---
MEGA MAN, Final Four: vs Sephiroth (VOTE MM!!!)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS(0-0): NEXT: vs SD(0-0) |
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