| Stats & Discussion -- Summer 2003 Contest -- Mark III |
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| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 6:29:40 AM | Message Detail |
Ah,
duh. I forgot one important point when considering whether this match
can break the vote record: it is unlikely that there will be a late
surge of voting like there was in Mario vs. Crono. So this match might
have like 130,000 or so instead of 132,000.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Seijun | Posted: 8/30/2003 6:35:00 AM | Message Detail |
You
know, I think I now understand why Kingdom Hearts could have had such
an effect on the popularity of the characters like Cloud, Sephy,
Squally, and Aeris.
Greater audience range.
Whenever a
new Mario, Link, or Sonic game is released, the majority of its
consumers are fans of their previous games. Sure, the new games might
attract some new gamers, but generally, the buyers are still the same
people as before. (Although such is not always the case. See: Metal
Gear Solid).
However, Kingdom Hearts wasn't just a Final Fantasy
or a Squaresoft game, it was also a Disney game, which means that the
people buying it were not just Final Fantasy fans. This means that
there's a very good chance that these four might be introduced to
people who have never heard of them before, resulting in a sudden surge
of popularity.
Of course, I don't know how much of the Kingdom
Hearts demographic are none Final Fantasy fans, but still. Just some
theory based on unfounded assumptions in an attempt to try and figure
out this strange Kingdom Hearts factor. ^^;;
---
Apparently
Shion is more concerned with her weapon of mass destruction
appreciating the beauty of spring and the sweetness of a baby's smile. |
| From: chaos knight | Posted: 8/30/2003 6:37:08 AM | Message Detail |
It also doesn't hurt that Kingdom Hearts is one of the best, if not the best, current next-gen RPGs so far IMO. :P
---
Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS
|
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 6:40:32 AM | Message Detail |
Yes,
that is very evident. Kingdom Hearts expanded the demographics of the
included FF7 characters' fanbases. There was no doubt some correlation
between KH owners and FF7 owners, but probably not nearly as high as
the overlap between, say, FF7 owners and FF8 owners. This is the type
of theory that you don't even need much evidence for to accept; it
would be shocking if it weren't true.
It is the extent of
the KH influence that is shocking. One knew that it would expand the
FF7 characters' fanbases demographically speaking, but I don't think
very many of us ever conceived it would completely change the landscape
of the contest in this manner.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/30/2003 10:12:20 AM | Message Detail |
| bump, for great justice |
| From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/30/2003 10:13:25 AM | Message Detail |
Well,
my bracket is wrecked since I had Mario getting to the finals. He's not
coming back, but if anybody was to come back from a 40% vote deficit it
would be Mario.
Here's some interesting info about Shadow/Sonic.
Now,
last year Mario>Cloud (barely). This year Mario got 55% against
Shadow, so Cloud (Last Year) should have gotten roughly 55% against
Shadow, also.
Now assuming that Cloud's popularity increased 7-10% at the most, that means that Cloud (This Year) should have beaten Shadow with roughly 65%. Cloud (This Year) beat Sonic with 66%.
This means one of two things:
a) Shadow is as popular or more so than Sonic himself
b) All Sonic fans will support Shadow as some sort of Puppet Sonic whenever he is in a match.
Regardless this makes, Wario look pretty, and makes Mario look pretty good also.
---
Evile Ninja Team Member
The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker |
| From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/30/2003 10:14:08 AM | Message Detail |
and to think, I originally didnt even wanna play Kingdom Hearts cause of Disney. How wrong I was
Lets hope that KH2 will have even more Square cameos and an even larger role for Cloud and Sephiroth and maybe even Kefka |
| From: irriadin | Posted: 8/30/2003 10:53:37 AM | Message Detail |
Ok.
So what with Mario getting a thrashing by Sephiroth at the current
moment, and Sonic getting blasted by Cloud, many people are thinking
that Link will fall to Cloud next round.
People who believe Link will lose are banking on the formidable "Kingdom Hearts" advantage.
However, these people are forgetting that Soul Calibur II just
came out, and guess what? The game features Link in it (GCN only, of
course). Not the "controvercial" cel-shaded Link, but the realistic
OoT-esque Link.
Now, naturally I have no way of knowing how
either the SCII or KH factors may effect the match between Cloud and
Link, but I believe they should be roughly equal. If, however, I were
to give the nod to one of the two, I would say Soul Calibur II.
Why?
Simply because Soul Calibur II is much more recent than Kingdom Hearts.
People visiting Gamefaqs for SCII will see the match, and will probably
vote for Link. Naturally, this probably extends only to the GCN SCII
owners, but looking at the top ten faqs page should tell you that it is
the most popular version.
So, that's my anyalsis of the
intangibles. That being said, I think Link will win by about the same
amount he did over Sephiroth last year. Good day!
---
Supporting Link in the Summer 2003 Contest |
| From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/30/2003 11:01:03 AM | Message Detail |
Regardless this makes, Wario look pretty, and makes Mario look pretty good also.
That should say "wario look pretty good."
---
Evile Ninja Team Member
The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker |
| From: Star Magician | Posted: 8/30/2003 11:07:58 AM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| From: Star Magician | Posted: 8/30/2003 11:08:56 AM | Message Detail |
That should say "wario look pretty good."
I don't think anyone would use "pretty" to describe Wario :D
---
I am the shadow, the keeper of light. If you want the sun's power, show me your own. ~Dullahan
Supporting Cloud, Mario, and Mega Man. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 11:09:59 AM | Message Detail |
Now assuming that Cloud's popularity increased 7-10% at the most,
But that's simply not true. Cloud's popularity has risen by a hell of a lot more than that.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: SSJVegeta69 | Posted: 8/30/2003 11:14:37 AM | Message Detail |
Cloud only lost to Mario because of Planet GameCube anyway. Because there's no way I'm buying that Cloud=Crono
---
"Sore wa himitsu desu." - Xellos |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 11:15:12 AM | Message Detail |
Oh
nevermind, you mean 7-10% in terms of the polls. I see. Yeah, if you
assume that Cloud = Sephiroth and work through their matches, then
Shadow and Sonic would be roughly equal.
Cloud = 1.96x Sonic
Sephiroth = 1.5x Mario (about)
Mario = 1.23x Shadow
So,
Sephiroth is approximately 1.845x Shadow. Shadow is thus closer to
Sephiroth than Sonic is to Cloud. The difference isn't significant, but
it is there. I do get the feeling that Cloud might be a bit more
popular than Sephiroth this year, though.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 11:23:12 AM | Message Detail |
Because there's no way I'm buying that Cloud=Crono
Unfortunately,
you are correct. Crono wasn't quite as popular as Cloud last year. He
was close, but not quite there. Cloud was more popular than Mario and
Crono both but lost due to PGC. And this year, forget about it. Link,
Cloud, and Sephiroth are on a completely different level from everybody
else. They are the only real "top tier" characters. Better than last
year though, where Link was by his lonesome.
irriadin,
I responded in your other thread too, but the SC2 factor cannot be nearly as high as the KH factor precisely because
the game is recent. Recent releases don't have nearly the impact as
older (yet still modern) releases. Games do not sell the majority of
their copies in the first week, whereas these days it is normal for a
movie to make 40-60% of its final gross opening weekend. It takes
months for a game to have its full impact upon the gamer population.
I
do think SC2 could play a significant role in Link vs. Cloud, but
there's just no way it could make as big a difference as KH so soon. Of
course, I would've said the same thing about KH...but, it's probably
true, in this case. Also remember that because of the relative scarcity
of GameCubes, KH almost certainly sold a great deal more than the GCN
version of SC2 will.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Terran | Posted: 8/30/2003 11:26:08 AM | Message Detail |
I
do think SC2 could play a significant role in Link vs. Cloud, but
there's just no way it could make as big a difference as KH so soon.
I
doubt SC2 will play any significant role. Kingdom Hearts renewed
Cloud's popularity because it was the first game he was in for years.
Link is in a new game every year or two, so one cameo won't have the
same effect on him imo.
---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
Bracket Points/Rec: 91 out of 112/47-11 (81.03%) Picked: Sephiroth |
| From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/30/2003 11:34:54 AM | Message Detail |
The
Link version of SC2 was only on the Gamecube anyways, making likely
voters of Link due to SC2 already Nintendo fans. Though KH was only on
PS2, it generated a lot more new interest because its got a much higher
diversity in fanbase and also because of the aforementioned overlap
factor
Gamecube owners are much more likely to overlap and be
Link and Nintendo fans whereas KH owners are less likely to be Final
Fantasy fans. Besides, I think a fighting game with basically no story
has less drawing power than an RPG-ish, 50 hour game where Cloud
actually played a minor but memorable part |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/30/2003 1:51:11 PM | Message Detail |
I
think that Link is very lucky that Soul Calibur 2 just so happened to
be released in America with a week to go in the contest. Very fitting :)
But
our next match seems like it will be a good one. In one corner stands
Solid Snake, a man who has, yet again, underachieved. In the other lies
Megaman, who some would say should have beaten Sephiroth last year, but
disappointed against Zelda.
This match could very well be decided by 1,000 votes or less, but for my sake, I hope Megaman wins.
---
~~Voted best username on the SC2K3 board~~, Boards Hunted: 461
|
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/30/2003 2:05:36 PM | Message Detail |
I
can't believe I had my sig reading "Mario over Sephiroth"... of course
I was away most of the day, so I couldn't fix this. Mario over
Sephiroth always looked unfeasible to me anyway, even in June... but
for different reasons. It's a miracle I'm tied for 19th when I called
most of the matches so bad. Of course, being one of the people who had
Link winning it all, there are still two more chances of it being
fatal...
South Final Review
Okay, so when I woke
up to see the results, I first thought I forgot to put my glasses on. I
reached for my glasses... they weren't there. OMG SOMEONE STOLE MY
GLASSES! Then, it slapped my in the face... I already had them on. How
come, then, that Sephiroth's bar is 1.5 times as long as Mario's? Holy
cow, that's complete destruction right there. Against Alucard... 2003
Seph > 2002 Cloud by 3%. Now... 2003 Seph > 2002 Cloud by 11%?
That's just ****ed up. Of course, it might just be one more letter in
the spelling of the word DOOM for Link... but let's just wait 'til
Monday to find out, okay?
Meanwhile, a thought. The number 1
legend in video gaming is getting beat by... an NPC. Granted, it might
be the most popular NPC ever, but it's still an NPC! The only NPC that
might claim to be more popular than the lead of his game. But we will
be fixed on that next week, especially if Link beats Cloud.
On
to another topic, the tiebreaker. The vote count looks set to reach
astronomical proportions once more. But the question is, since is isn't
even close... WHY? And it's frikkin' Saturday! Of course, one could
argue that Mario vs. Crono II happened on a Sunday... so imagine the
final. Link vs. Sephiroth on WEDNESDAY. Another super-close match for
the Hero of Time, the ballot is stuffed like a Thanksgiving turkey...
150000 votes anyone? It should calm someone like me, who put a rather
high tiebreaker compared to others...
West Final Preview
The
hype for this match has been run into the ground now by the perspective
of a Cloud championship. Megaman's pedigree this year looks a little
disappointing... however, like I wrote a few days back, he would have
gotten over 70% against Lara Croft... like Crono did last year. And
since Crono edged out Snake by a few thousands for the win... However,
Snake mustn't be messed with. He beat Knuckles by 2 more percents than
last year... could these missing points be his redemption?
Now
to deliver the killing blow to Megaman, you'll name Vercetti and his
great performance against Mega. But Vercetti likely had the Master
Chief factor working for him: a huge hit with rabid fanboys but lots of
haters will be underachieving against small-time opponents
(Felix/Kite), but do great against stronger ones (Aeris/MM). And while
Megaman has the advantage on paper, this match is still up in the air.
One
thing's for sure though... among Link, Cloud and Sephiroth, the winner
of this match will look out of place and be in for a swift exit next
round. Heck... ANYONE would.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 106/112, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (27-way)
Today's pick: Sephiroth over Mario |
| From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/30/2003 3:29:57 PM | Message Detail |
As of this update(15:15 GFAQs time), Sephiroth is leading by 20822 votes. Last year, Link beat Mario by 24619. With 27 updates left, Sephiroth can beat Mario by the same margin if he gets 3797 votes or 140.62
votes an update, not out of the question. If Sephiroth can get within
even 1000 or 2000 votes of the 24619 that Link beat Mario by, and
taking into account the Nintendo vs Nintendo split fanbase factor, then
Sephiroth has a great chance of beating Link in the finals should Cloud
fail to take him down
Percentages mean less and less at this point with so many voters, but Sephiroth's 60.89% is only 1.64 away from Link 2002's 62.53%. A gain of about 0.061% average for the last 27 updates will equal Sephiroth to Link's winning percentage last year
|
| From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/30/2003 3:35:57 PM | Message Detail |
*Update*
15:30 GFAQs time
Sephiroth's lead increased 326 to 21148 and the percentage increased 0.04%. At this pace, Sephiroth will beat the vote margin of victory of 2002 Link but not his percentage of victory |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 8/30/2003 7:30:52 PM | Message Detail |
Interesting
stuff by everyone who posted the last 48 hours, had to sit here and
read it all, was away so that is why no previews from me, in case
anyone was wondering. Now to comment on Cloud and Seph.
Cloud
took out the Blue Blur handily. I had the 5th highest percentage pick
on solarshadow's contest, and before I submitted it I thought I was too
high! Needless to say. Cloud sent the Sega Squadrons to the
grave...will be a great semifinal with Link and the hardest overall
match to call thus far IMO. (which is how matches this late should be)
Then...I
had Sephiroth to win this match with Mario (and in my bracket the whole
thing), so I am extremely pleased with this outcome. He is taking the
King of Platformers to school, better than any of us thought he would.
Proves also to me that Cloud = Seph, and Crono, though he tries
valiantly, is in a 'tier 2' of his own underneath these two, but above
Aeris and Magus and Squall in 'tier 3' in the Square popularity charts.
Seph should have no problem dispatching Mega Man on Tuesday.
Which
is where we are at right now. Snake vs Mega Man. My bracket has Mega
beating Snake, my prediction is Mega by 55.10%. And that is how it will
play out. Snake has not impressed me in any of his victories...no
blowouts over halfway decent competition like the other #1 seeds have
put up. Mega, on the other hand, has been around longer, is universally
liked and respected and more casuals will know him than Snake. This is
the one variable in this match that will knock off the #1 seed, and end
this round at 2 #1's and 2 #2's. Mega could go near 60% here and it
would not surprise me in the least. Snake's run ends tomorrow.
---
Trivia 9 Team: CheeseStrikesBack! Today: Go Sephiroth!
"I shall be one with the Planet..." -Sephiroth |
| From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 8/30/2003 7:37:50 PM | Message Detail |
Cloud and Sephiroth are currently looking to join Link as the top tiers.
Meanwhile,
Samus performed slightly better than Mario against Link this year, and
tons better than Mario against Sephiroth last year. Would that make her
more popular than Mario and Crono?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: 99/120
Vote Mega Man! |
| From: SSJVegeta69 | Posted: 8/30/2003 7:38:47 PM | Message Detail |
I think it just makes Link less popular than last year.
---
"Sore wa himitsu desu." - Xellos |
| From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/30/2003 7:49:54 PM | Message Detail |
| Well
as of this writing, Sephiroth has passed the 26000 mark in votes more
than Mario, thats more than Link beat him by last year. While he's
still about 1% away from 2002 Link's percentage win, Sephiroth has
shown that he's indeed got a legitimate shot at Link's crown, and thats
assuming Cloud doesnt beat him first! Given the same-fanbase factor in
last year's finals, should Seph and Link battle it might not even be as
close as people may think |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 8:09:54 PM | Message Detail |
Meanwhile,
Samus performed slightly better than Mario against Link this year, and
tons better than Mario against Sephiroth last year. Would that make her
more popular than Mario and Crono?
I would think it means
that Mario, Crono, Samus, and Sonic are all on roughly equal popularity
levels, with Sonic being the weakest by a litte bit. And Mega Man is
probably just a slight bit higher than them, but roughly on their level.
Given
the same-fanbase factor in last year's finals, should Seph and Link
battle it might not even be as close as people may think
That's
what I'm thinking, but for Cloud vs. Link instead. The same fanbase
factor appears to have been quite overrated. I think the only match
where it made a big difference was in Mario vs. Donkey Kong, because DK
voters are fickle I guess (DK voters are probably Nintendo voters,
whereas Mario has his own following indepedant of Nintendo). I think
this is also good evidence that "company Fanboy" voting isn't quite the
epidemic that people seemed to think it was.
Anyway, on Cloud vs Link: I would expect Cloud '03 to beat Link '02 with 54% of the vote, possibly even as high as 57%! I don't think that match would be nearly as close as people expect, but in Cloud's favor, not Link's. Cloud has shown to be an all-out monster
this year. Add in the bracket-voter and SC2 factors, and things look
much better for Link '03...but still "cloudy", if you excuse the bad
pun.
Since there's a 50/50 chance at most that we'll see a Cloud
vs. Sephiroth final, I'm gonna start analysis on it right now, since if
Link beats Cloud it'll be pointless to do it later.
Cloud vs. Sephiroth
1) Who do you think would win?
2) What would the margin be?
3) How many votes would it get?
I
have no clue who would win, personally. I might give Cloud a very
slight edge simply because his performance against Sonic was better
than Sephiroth's against Mario.
As for the margin, if the same
fanbase factor is indeed overrated, then this match could very well be
50/50. Cloud and Seph appear to be roughly equal. Even if the same
fanbase factor comes into play, I don't see either side getting more
than a 55/45 win.
Since it's Square vs. Square, I don't think
that it would have a chance to reach Mario vs. Sephiroth levels, or
what I expect Cloud vs. Link to get. I say 120,000.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/30/2003 8:18:07 PM | Message Detail |
| I'm
hoping a lot of bracket voters would vote with their hearts instead of
brackets. Up to this point, anyone not in the top 50 and not within 15
points of the lead has absolutely no shot at winning anything. I know I
voted for Crono even though my bracket had Mario, because my points
were only in the top 3%, which means I've got about 700 people ahead of
me. So hopefully 17000 bracket picks doesnt mean 17000 free points |
| From: chaos knight | Posted: 8/30/2003 8:19:54 PM | Message Detail |
I'm part of the Link bracket voters but I plan on voting for Cloud regardless...
Anyone here notice that now Sephiroth has surpassed Link's vote total against Magus last round? Talk about an impressive victory.
---
Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS
|
| From: the jp | Posted: 8/30/2003 9:32:31 PM | Message Detail |
Bump
---
All your weed are belong to us. |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/31/2003 4:13:57 AM | Message Detail |
Sephiroth only did 1% worse than Link against Mario.
ONE FRIGGIN' PERCENT.
These last two matches remind me of 9/11.
I
wonder if there's anyone in the Top 50 that had Cloud winning it all...
As a matter of fact, I just might do next year, even if he loses
tomorrow.
Lookie! With Megaman's win I have a PERFECT West! Too bad it's not worth 100000 points or such, like in the old days.
And I'm currently at the worst position one can be right now... *points to sig* I hope this changes soon.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 106/112, 0 lost . . . . T-11 (17-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Snake |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/31/2003 6:45:33 AM | Message Detail |
Okay,
although Megaman likely has this one won, I'll wait until tomorrow for
the review. Tomorrow's review will also likely be delayed. So here it
is, my Link vs. Cloud preview!
Semifinal #1 Preview
Cloud
and Sephiroth were already powerful enough last year, with the backing
of, to hear the fanboys, God's gift to mankind, FF7. Yet Cloud couldn't
get past Mario and Sephiroth would likely have beaten him by a very
small margin. Now both are seen contending with Link, who's waaaaaaay
higher on the popularity scale than Mario.
All of this...
because of... get this... A CAMEO. A freakin' cameo morphs two already
credible contestants into top contenders for the crown.
The
funny part of it? Link has his very own cameo coming this way, in the
Gamecube version of Soul Calibur 2. The very version of the very game
that reigns supreme on the Top 10 FAQs. Not that it's an important
factor... did it help Pikachu? Oh no it didn't. But Pikachu was like a
loathed figure in a respected and still-played series.
Another
point... don't be surprised to see Cloud take the early lead. It looks
as though the first few thousands of voters come mainly from the
board... the anti-Link sentiment is at an all-time high, and the people
that bear it have found the ideal candidate to stop Link's 10-win
streak. However, if it happens, Cloud is unlikely to keep that rythm
(Luigi comes to mind) and if he's to lose, he'll be overtaken by Link
within the first hour. And I'll be there LIVE to see the action!
Both
had spectacular runs so far, Cloud maybe moreso. However, Link held the
lead for all 24 hours in all his matches, what Cloud couldn't do. Okay,
so it doesn't have to do with anything, just felt like pointing it out.
We're
all wondering what the pictures will be. FF7 or KH? OoT/SSBM, WW or
SC2? For some freaky reason, Batcloud seems to score with the
Squareheads, but then again, not using a WW pic might help cool down
the bad things that have been said about it. Pics could be a deciding
factor if the match is Mario/Crono like.
There's also
bracket-voting. Link has more than 40% of the brackets to win it all,
while Cloud's count barely exceeds 5%. If the brackets can make a
difference, more than in any other match, it's here.
If Cloud
wins here, this match will become the hardest of all time to predict.
Okay, so the final will be harder no matter what, then.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 114/120, 0 lost . . . . T-11 (17-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Snake |
| From: NT220 | Posted: 8/31/2003 7:29:44 AM | Message Detail |
Wow.
If Megaman wins this (and he most likely will; the morning vote has
given him a 2000-vote and growing lead) this may very well end up being
the most difficult match in the contest to predict barring an upset by
Cloud or Sephiroth. Just above 30% of the brackets even had MM coming
this far, and judging by this board far more people had Snake winning
this than MM. We may actually see a single-digit prediction rate for
this one.
Of course, most people in the top 50 will know far better, so this has no bearing on Slowflake's (or my) chances. Bleh.
---
"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
| From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/31/2003 11:02:01 AM | Message Detail |
Yay!!
I have a perfect East Division. Yeah I know, I'm a few days late.* I
know Slowflake has a perfect West, so does anybody else have perfect
divisions.
*I hope I didn't post this earlier.
---
Evile Ninja Team Member
The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker |
| From: SSJVegeta69 | Posted: 8/31/2003 11:20:09 AM | Message Detail |
I have a perfect south.
---
"Sore wa himitsu desu." - Xellos |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/31/2003 12:10:00 PM | Message Detail |
And I was one away from having a perfect BOTTOM HALF... damn Shadow decided to mess with my plans.
And
I'd be tempted to say a lot of the people who had Snake winning had him
beating Vercetti, so I think the prediction % will barely beat Crono's
from last year. Come on people, it was so friggin' obvious FROM DAY ONE!
Tomorrow
I will, coincidentally, post the list of the division finals
predictions both for this year and all-time, sorted by percentage. I
will also post the standings by division as well. These will in turn
give out the Aftermath Seedings... I already calculated the first three
divisions, and as an appetizer, do you know who has been the most
overseeded in these three divisions combined? Pac-Man by a whopping 9
seeds (got 5, deserved 14).
I hope these lists don't get totally buried though, considering the impact of tomorrow's match.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 114/120, 0 lost . . . . T-11 (17-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Snake |
| From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/31/2003 12:19:18 PM | Message Detail |
One thing that this match tells me... Mega Man has no chance against Sephiroth.
According
to how he's doing against Snake, he's probably about as stronger or a
tiny bit stronger than Crono, meaning that he'd probably edge out Mario
if those two fought. However, the guy that blew away Mario will beat
the guy that would barely beat him.
At this point, I'm 99.9% sure that Sephiroth will be in the final.
---
Tulsa Golden Hurricane... In Dynasty Mode, Big 12 Champions
After Day Two of Trivia: 7th Place |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/31/2003 12:21:56 PM | Message Detail |
I agree. It's almost a bye at this point.
To think, the final was Link vs. whoever for so long... and now it's whoever vs. Sephiroth.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 114/120, 0 lost . . . . T-11 (17-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Snake |
| From: Terran | Posted: 8/31/2003 12:34:39 PM | Message Detail |
The
funny part of it? Link has his very own cameo coming this way, in the
Gamecube version of Soul Calibur 2. The very version of the very game
that reigns supreme on the Top 10 FAQs.
I own the GameCube
Version of Soul Calibur 2 and Link is my second most played character
on it. I don't see him boosting his popularity from this though. See,
Kingdom Hearts was the first major title that had given both characters
significant roles in years (btw- does Cloud get another cameo in
FFTA?). Because of this it helped to revilitalize their popularity.
People that never heard of Cloud/Sephiroth bought/rented FF7 (easily
avaible and cheap, least the greatest hits version) and other Final
Fantasy games because they where curious to find out who these people
were. Others who had played FF7 may like Cloud/Sephiroth more because
of the nostagalia this game created for them.
Link, on the other
hand, had a game out earlier this year. A cameo is just a cameo for him
as most everyone knows who Link is anyways and have already passed
judgement on him for better or worse.
The one way I see this
helping Link is if people who otherwise never went to GameFAQs, popped
in solely to get hints/tips/FAQs/Walkthroughs on Soul Calibur II (GCN
ver), saw the Cloud/Link match, and voted for Link because they have
just been playing him in the game. But that seems like a weak arguement
to me as state in the above paragraphs and I feel just as many visitors
would vote for Cloud as they would Link.
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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
Bracket Points/Rec: 99 out of 120/48-11 (81.36%) Picked: MegaMan |
| From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 8/31/2003 12:41:55 PM | Message Detail |
| I
wouldn't expect the bracket voters would play much of a factor at all.
Most people are out of the running anyway, and what's it gonna help
them if Link wins it all? Most of the people ahead of them are gonna
have Link, too. If anything, the bracket voters will be as
insignificant as they've ever been. Only the people strongly in
contention would vote Link for their bracket's sake. |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/31/2003 1:50:12 PM | Message Detail |
Unless they just want to do as good as they can. 10th or 50th isn't the bottom of the standings as we thow them.
And
Terran - know the saying, "you're as good as your last game" or
something? Link probably got a little bit of bad blood with Wind
Waker... maybe the appearance of the Link everyone likes in SC2 can
help wash it away a bit. Something's for sure... it won't hurt.
As
for Cloud and Sephiroth, I guess you do have a point, but it's not
everyone who will go and buy FF7 just to see who these dudes are. For
Cloud to go from Mario-level to Link-level... I can't see this many
people trying it out because of KH. Then they'd have to try FF8 too,
and every FF where a character makes a cameo.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 114/120, 0 lost . . . . T-11 (17-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Snake |
| From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/31/2003 2:03:47 PM | Message Detail |
I just can't see Link losing.
It's
become apparent that Cloud and Sephiroth have obviously increased in
popularity, but Sephiroth only got 43% against him last year. Gaining
seven percent is definitely possible, but gaining seven percent on Link
is a completely different story. An adult Link pic would help (and I
predict that's what we'll get), but even without I don't think it'll
get any closer than the Mega Man/Snake match right now.
If
Link manages more than 53% over Cloud, I think his win over Sephiroth
will be assured. If it's less than that, Sephiroth may have a chance.
Also I doubt SCII will have any affect, but then again, being in of the top games at the moment certainly can't hurt...
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... |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/31/2003 2:04:05 PM | Message Detail |
SC2
link does give him a bit of a boost by, as stated by snowflake, washing
away the badblood of windwaker AND SC2 has adifferent demographic than
your typical zelda game. Many GC owners will have both, yes, but the
same can be said for KH anf FF. A lot of people who love final fantasy
bought KH because it was from square. KH did dip into the younger demo
and made cloud and sephi known to younger audiences but the same could
be said about SC2 doing that for older audiences that may never have
had an interest in playing a Zelda game. Also, SC2 GC is hte most
popular version, and if my line of thinking is similar to anyone elses
in the world one of the main reasons some people bought a GC was for
SC2... I had been anticipating its release on the GC long before it
even hit the arcades and I vowed to buy a GC by the time it was release
(when I first heard about it the rumors were that it'd be a GC
exclusive). Im not saying the SC2 effect is as strong as the KH effect
may be, but it could very well be there.
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http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/MyAnime/index.php?categ=10&user=ChichiriMuyo |
| From: Seijun | Posted: 8/31/2003 2:10:27 PM | Message Detail |
Also,
SC2 GC is hte most popular version, and if my line of thinking is
similar to anyone elses in the world one of the main reasons some
people bought a GC was for SC2...
Personally, I think that
the only people who would buy a GameCube just for SCII are those who
want to play as Link, i.e. those who already know and love him.
Of
course this may be because I'm clinging desperately at the chance of a
new champion. Two-time champions make for boring fics ^^;;
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Apparently
Shion is more concerned with her weapon of mass destruction
appreciating the beauty of spring and the sweetness of a baby's smile. |
| From: cyko | Posted: 8/31/2003 4:37:49 PM | Message Detail |
great stuff everyone!
i
don't have time for an extensive post, but Link vs. Clod will be HUGE!
i still agree that Link has a slight edge. i would love to see a Cloud
vs. Sephiroth match, but not really as the final match. and i think a
lot of people don't want to see a Final Fantasy 7 Final Match. Soul
Calibur 2 should give Link the boost he needs to make it past Cloud.
ESPECIALLY if CJayC uses a Soul Calibur 2 pic of Link. although, i did
think that the WindWaker image would hurt Link last year, but it didn't
seem to slow him down a bit. and i doubt the brackets will influence
much at this point. anyone not in the Top 50 by now is not going to
make it in the Top 10 if Link wins. possibly if Cloud wins, but i doubt
that, too.
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"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/31/2003 7:26:26 PM | Message Detail |
Link has an excellent shot at getting his SC2 pic for this match. I'm sure CJayC is very aware of it being the number one FAQ currently.
If Link does get his SC2 pic, I see Link winning with as much as 54% of the vote.
If
not, then I see Cloud winning. Depending on various assumptions and
adjustments, I end up with numbers ranging from Link winning with 55%
to Cloud winning with 57%. My best numbers have Cloud winning with
52%...but my gut still can't buy Cloud winning. My gut says
Link with 51.5%. But my mind has always pwned my gut before, and I
desperately hope the same is true here.
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Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: steve illumina | Posted: 8/31/2003 8:34:02 PM | Message Detail |
Semifinal 1 of 2: Link vs Cloud
Bracket: Link over Cloud, Prediction: Link by 53.80
So here we are...the Hero of Hyrule vs the Pride of Square.
Let
me begin by stating one thing...it was I back in Link's first or second
match who hyped the Soul Caliber 2 cameo before anyone else on this
thread. Feel free to research the archive of solarshadow's stats
threads. Its there in my round 1 or 2 analysis posts back in July! SO
yep, glad everyone else agrees now that it will help him garner a few
votes from fighting gamers and casuals. :)
Seriously, it will
help. Cameos in popular games always do this. It would be the same if
the Snakester cameo'd in Splinter Cell or Mega Man showed up in Capcom
vs SNK. Farfetched? Maybe just a little. But yes cameos do stoke all
sorts of possibilities, if nothing else, memories of where the
character was first enjoyed.
Link has the backing of the
Nintendites foremost, then the bracket voters, kiddies and lastly the
Soul freaks. This will be enough to beat Cloud I do believe...though
not by much. Cloud will give Link the greatest challenge he ever faced
in 2 years of character battles.
Cloud, one half of the two reps
from the pride of Square still left in this tourney from Square's
greatest gaming hit in the eyes of most Squareites, that being FF7. The
Square legions and anti Link voters will drive up the votes early for
Cloud, but alas, it will not be enough...once the kids wake up since it
is a holiday, a day off school...oh boy!
Many feel Cloud has
the best shot at it, but if anyone can defeat Link this year...it will
be Sephiroth. Seph, who has ran over everyone he faced, including the
Savior of Gaming, the King of Platformers, the Nintendo Legend
himself...Mario. Beat them all by 60% or more. Sure Seph was my pick to
win it all from the get-go, but now I have more faith in him than I did
originally. After he dispatches Mega Man on Tuesday of course (more on
that later)
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Trivia 9 Team: CheeseStrikesBack! Today: Go Link!
"I am the Hero of Hyrule!" -Link, CDi Zelda (Trash...) |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/31/2003 8:41:40 PM | Message Detail |
Megaman`s
performance against Solid Snake proves to me that he has no chance at
all of taking down Sephiroth. I mean, seriously, saying he could beat
Sephiroth is like saying he could destroy Mario, and he quite simply
could not do such a thing.
Yet again, Solid Snake proves to be HIGHLY overrated. Again.
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~~Voted best username on the SC2K3 board~~, Boards Hunted: 461
|
| From: Leonhart4 | Posted: 8/31/2003 8:46:45 PM | Message Detail |
| Now
everyone's so high on Sephiroth, but what makes you think that Cloud
couldn't do the same thing? That blowout shows that the KH factor is
the biggest one this year, and I think Cloud could've beaten Mario
handily, too. |
| From: Fett0001 | Posted: 8/31/2003 9:37:59 PM | Message Detail |
| Bump |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/31/2003 11:06:05 PM | Message Detail |
01:00 Link : 6452 | 48.59% || Cloud : 6827 | 51.41% | Update Votes | 2330 || Total Votes | 13279 | lead of 375 | ( up 134 )
I must echo my earlier sentiments:
Kingdom Hearts has PWNed this contest.
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Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
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