| Stats & Discussion -- Summer 2003 Contest -- Mark III |
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| From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2003 12:44:32 AM | Message Detail |
My
confidence in Link winning has now gone up a slight bit, because people
have mentioned the Soul Calibur 2 factor. Odd that I didn't think of
that myself, especially with the way I've been lusting after the GCN
version of that game. SC2 is already an incredibly popular game.
Though, most gamers don't rush out an buy games immediately (games are
different from movies in that regard), so I don't know how much impact
the game will have. It is the first positive factor for Link in a while
though.
I must say that without the SC2 factor, I would be
incredibly uncertain about the outcome of Link vs. Cloud. Now, I am
slightly more certain that Link will win.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/29/2003 12:46:32 AM | Message Detail |
Hey I wanna post something
Um...did
anyone notice that all of the division finals have a character whose
name begins with the letter 'S'? Yeah, I just thought that was
interesting |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2003 12:52:28 AM | Message Detail |
From: creativename | Posted: 8/28/2003 10:48:43 PM | Message Detail
A character who was 1.5x Sonic last year would have beaten Link with 52.4% of the vote.
Uh-oh, just read that again. That should be 1.6x Sonic.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2003 12:56:07 AM | Message Detail |
Um...did
anyone notice that all of the division finals have a character whose
name begins with the letter 'S'? Yeah, I just thought that was
interesting
That is odd. Though, more words start with "S"
than any other letter except for "P". I remember as a kid I was
surprised at how big the "S" section of the dictionary was. This site
is fascinating:
http://phrontistery.50megs.com/ihlstats.html
Stat-heads like the people in here might enjoy a look at that.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 8/29/2003 2:04:22 AM | Message Detail |
| Did
you happen to miss Sonic vs Ken, Zero, and Aeris? He is clearly weaker
this year, while Samus is at least as strong as last year, if not
stronger. Link's victory yesterday pretty much squashed whatever chance
Cloud and rest of the field had IMO. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2003 2:12:04 AM | Message Detail |
You
know, I just realized how impressive these results make Auron look! In
fact, it makes it seem as if the "Same Fanbase Factor" might have been
very overrated for that match. Going by Cloud as 65% against Sonic,
that translates into Auron getting just under 42% against Sonic. While
at first I thought that Auron should be more popular than Aeris, FFX
isn't nearly as popular and didn't sell nearly as many copies as FF7.
So Auron getting 42% against Sonic seems highly reasonable. Hell, even
CATS doesn't look half bad anymore. ...nah, that's going too far. CATS
still stinks ;) (for the purposes of this contest anyway)
Damn,
I've really taken over this thread tonight. I've never posted at this
site as much as I have tonight. I've started like 3 topics tonight for
this match alone, when normally I might start a couple per week.
It's
just that after the Crono stuff almost completely derailed my
enthusiasm for this contest, this match has brought it back and then
some. I have never been as excited about this contest as I am now! To
think that someone may actually defeat Link is incredible, despite my
extreme fanboyism towards Link. If someone does defeat Link, that
greatly increases the odds of there being a Summer 2004 Contest
(hopefully with Frog!) Also, it now occurs to me that Sephiroth may
very well trash Mario to an extent that cheating will not come into
play. That prospect makes me downright giddy, to be perfectly honest.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2003 2:28:20 AM | Message Detail |
Did
you happen to miss Sonic vs Ken, Zero, and Aeris? He is clearly weaker
this year, while Samus is at least as strong as last year, if not
stronger. Link's victory yesterday pretty much squashed whatever chance
Cloud and rest of the field had IMO
Sonic vs. Ken indicated
that Sonic's popularity had risen (or Ken's had fallen), and there is
much more reason to believe that Aeris' popularity increased than
Sonic's popularity decreasing. I'm not saying that Sonic's popularity
has not decreased, but it couldn't possibly have fallen that
much. Sonic vs. Zero does indicate that Sonic's popularity has
fallen--working through Zero, Sonic is 1.69x Scorpion this year,
whereas he was 2.18x Scorpion last year. However, even when taking this
into account and saying that Cloud will get 65% against Sonic--which
puts Cloud this year at 1.585x of Sonic last year--Cloud this year
remains at 48.6% of Link last year. And that's without adjusting the
total for the presumed under-estimation of Mario's side of the bracket
last year, due to Same Fanbase Factor in the Link vs. Mario match.
Link's
victory yesterday was not as impressive as Cloud's today. Again, Samus
is apparently equal to last year. There is certainly no evidence from
the contest that she is stronger. The speculation that she would be
stronger this year was well-grounded, however it appears not to be the
case.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2003 5:45:47 AM | Message Detail |
Hehe, looks like I'm not the one looking for my eyeballs too. (LOOKING for my eyeballs? That sounds wrong.)
Cloud
is almost DOUBLING Sonic! I would have NEVER expected that. Especially
with this disgusting KH Batcloud pic. (What happened, did Morrigan
se><><or him in between games or what?) This is insane.
This is wrong. I agree with whoever said Cloud would probably beat Link
without the bracket-voters. And even there, it might not be enough.
Looks like Cloud indeed had room to improve with Kingdom Hearts.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 98/104, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Cloud over Sonic |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2003 5:50:13 AM | Message Detail |
Oh, and at this rate, Sephiroth will SQUASH Mario.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 98/104, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Cloud over Sonic |
| From: Teratron | Posted: 8/29/2003 9:24:15 AM | Message Detail |
| OK,
am I the only one here who isn't in the least bit surprised by this
result? I pretty much expected Cloud to get somewhere in the 60%-70%
range. Link vs. Samus, OtOH, had me ever so slightly nervous.
Personally, I'm more impressed by Link's margin. I won't be a bit
surprised if Link-Cloud is the closest match Link has had yet, but I
still expect he'll take it fairly comfortably. |
| From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 8/29/2003 11:10:27 AM | Message Detail |
| I don't think bracket votes will play that big of a role next round, as most people will have no chance to win by then. |
| From: BigCow | Posted: 8/29/2003 1:10:09 PM | Message Detail |
Up to Sonic, 11811 people picked a losing character to win the competition.
That's 28.77% of everyone.
And the numbers will keep on climbing.
Mario
or Sephiroth die tomorrow. Either way, it'll add to the number of
brackets busted. Mario is a classic, the smart money's on him, but I
want Sephiroth to win largely due to last round, and I think he may
have the better support. I see him taking an early lead, if nothing
else.
Survivors:
Link 17571
Sephiroth 3265
Mario 2953
Cloud 2482
Snake 2378
Mega Man 599
---
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Archive: http://members.aol.com/gcbfiles/ffproj.html |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2003 1:16:36 PM | Message Detail |
Well,
I guess you do have a point. But why wouldn't someone finish as good as
possible? 10th or even 50th isn't what defines a good performance.
Besides, those that are still in have in majority either Link,
Sephiroth, Mario or Cloud with the odd Snake/Megaman pick.
And why in the hell did Cloud put ten metric tons of tape on his sword? It wouldn't even cut Jello in that state!
East Final Review
I
remember a piece of commentary by MMXcalibur waaaay before the contest
started. It went a bit like this: "Cloud is riding the FF7 train, and
there's no getting offa this train. Until the Link juction point, that
is." Lookie... it just might forget to stop there, because we all
forgot that it was powered by the brand new Kingdom Hearts engine.
This
is unexpectedly one-sided. Now, the question stands... did the same
fanbase factor work for Link? I'd say neither had the full support of
their respective fanbases, so it sort of cancels out. It better be,
because Cloud is beating up a slightly weaker character even better...
both are almost virtually tied going into their anticipated showdown.
What this match also shows is that Cloud's performances against Auron
and Bowser were far from being flukes. Bowser had a newcomer-exclusive
4-pack, and Auron beat up Tails badly (besides, you could always blame
the common fanbase for Cloud vs. Auron, since these two are much more
similar than Link and Samus).
Now... the stage is set for Link
vs. Cloud. I was never really sure that Cloud had enough power to make
Link struggle here. But with his demonstration today... what is going
to happen?
Two last thoughts... 1. Last year, Cloud barely lost
to Mario, and this year he could beat Link. Freaky comparison, really.
2. Before this match, the obvious final was Link vs. whoever. Now it's
whoever vs. Sephiroth.
South Final Review
After
Batcloud, we will obviously be treated to a little more tolerable
Batseph. And now we have a pretty good idea of how much of a leap
forward FF took since last year. If Mario barely escaped Cloud last
year... he's set for a trip to the chamber of horrors tomorrow. Now,
even if FF's popularity didn't improve that much, there is numerical
evidence that Mario's a severe underdog going into this match. Both
Cloud last year and Sephiroth this year faced Alucard right before
Mario. Sephiroth did almost 3% better. The only way Mario can keep up
is his now proverbial "clutch"... but it wouldn't surprise me if
Sephiroth had enough of a lead going into the final hours to render it
utterly useless.
Summer Contest 2004 Early Commentary
My
first thought here goes to the decidedly unlucky Square fanboys who cry
for something all year, then when they get it, it backfires at them.
"CJayC shouldn't interfere in Mario vs. Crono!" Result: he didn't,
giving the win to... Mario. Now what if the following scenario
happened? "CJayC should take out the champion next year!" SC2004 rolls
around and... no Cloud in sight. I know I would PISS MY PANTS.
On
a more serious note... the following commentary is based on what Link
will do from here on in. My point is... even if they don't win, if
either Cloud or Sephiroth get within 2000 votes of Link, Link will have
serious problems next year, stock falling with the bracketeers and less
bracket-votes and all that. If Cloud does, it's bye-bye for Link in
2004, since he'll be stuck fighting him again. If Cloud doesn't, but
Seph does (meaning Seph > Cloud), then Link will need PERFECT
bracket placement. That means both Cloud and Sephiroth are in the other
half of the bracket. The chances of that happening are basically zero.
The only winning scenario for Link is Cloud beats Seph, because people
will vote for the hero over the villain anytime, and Link barely beats
Cloud.
This means... Link will need to have two good showings
'til the end in order to keep his hopes alive for next year. Any
faltering, and even if he defends successfully, either Cloud or
Sephiroth will be instant favorite next year,
---
Sig cut... post too long. |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/29/2003 1:42:34 PM | Message Detail |
Well
this match pretty much solidified Sonic as the weakest of the top
characters. (the elite 8 & Crono) As I pointed out a while back, he
can beat any character in the contest except for those eight.
And
I agree agree with everyone else, Cloud is looking scary. The winner
will be Link, Cloud, or Sephiroth. I just don't believe that Snake/Mega
Man will have enough to edge out Sephy (assuming he beats Mario of
course)& then edge out Link/Cloud.
One more comment on
Sonic, if there is a SC2004, Ceej should just dump the prospect of a
Mario/Sonic final since it will never happen on this site. Instead,
just put them in the same division as the 1 & 2 seeds and have them
on a collision course in the Elite 8. Heck, we all want to see that
match, and I for one am tired of playing theory matches with these two!
:P |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2003 1:48:08 PM | Message Detail |
I
agree with Who Cares on the Mario/Sonic issue. I mean, Mario/Cloud was
a finals caliber match-up, yet it happened in the division finals and
still DELIVERED as one of the most remembered matches ever, up there
with the Mario/Crono series.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 98/104, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Cloud over Sonic |
| From: Shake | Posted: 8/29/2003 1:56:01 PM | Message Detail |
Very
good analysis by Snowflake again. I enjoyed that one, because I need
convincing Cloud actually may have a shot. All the signs tell me so,
and I want Cloud to beat him, but my gut feeling tells me the morning I
look at Cloud vs Link there will be a 55% Link and a 45 % Cloud.
I just hope its wrong......
---
OH
MAH GAWD,WHAT THE HELL IS CJAYC DOING WITH THAT DAMN CHAIR!Mario's
up!Dammit,not like this!Mario pins Crono! Its a damn screwjob, by gawd! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2003 4:26:51 PM | Message Detail |
And
I forgot to mention that the bracket-voters went massively with Mario
against Crono... now Mario and Sephiroth are pretty much tied. Maybe a
little advantage for Seph even, since more brackets have him winning it
all and I wouldn't be surprised if that ratio kept up within those that
have Link winning.
Also, usually I discard revenge voters, but
when they are motivated to vote-stuff... chamber of horrors did I say?
More like a HIAC!
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 98/104, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Cloud over Sonic |
| From: torey luvullo | Posted: 8/29/2003 4:33:03 PM | Message Detail |
| slowflake
is probably right...but the question is, is there such a thing as a
lead which is safe against the "clutch" mario late vote? some people
are undoubtedly thinking that if lead by mario opponent = x, clutch
votes by mario late in the match > x + 1... |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2003 4:39:31 PM | Message Detail |
Torey...
I sincerely doubt Mario could make up 3000-4000 votes with a clutch
move. Last year Mario beat Cloud at his weakest, and Crono twice (his
popularity hasn't changed since last year). Now it's post-KH Sephiroth.
And
I've got the million dollar question. DOES LINK HAVE A CLUTCH? Never
needed it... until now. It'll be cool to see. Mario used it, Samus used
it... why not Link?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 98/104, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Cloud over Sonic |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2003 5:48:35 PM | Message Detail |
because people will vote for the hero over the villain anytime, and Link barely beats Cloud.
sephiroth
is one badguy that may actually break that rule, snowflake. i know id
vote for him over cloud. and if somehow link loses this contest then
all confidence will be lost in him, and in 2004 he'd be lucky to get
10% picking him to win. If he does win retiring him would be nice, he'd
prove his potence and next year he'd get like 65% confidence... with
more bracket voters and more of them sure of his win it'll be a self
fullfilling prophecy. If he doesnt win it proves that its anybodies
game regardless of who is picked to win by over 40% of the brackets. Im
sure Link will be cloud though, but not likely by more than 55-60%.
Link vs Sephiroth (assuming he beats mario and mega/snake) will
actually be a much tougher fight. I have a feeling we're still looking
at a fait chance of a link vs mario rematch, though that'd be rather
boring.
---
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/MyAnime/index.php?categ=10&user=ChichiriMuyo |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2003 5:54:46 PM | Message Detail |
that should say Link will beat Cloud... not be Cloud.
---
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/MyAnime/index.php?categ=10&user=ChichiriMuyo |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2003 6:00:45 PM | Message Detail |
My
point is, even if Sephiroth was more popular than Cloud against, say,
Link, or anyone else for that matter, Cloud would probably beat
Sephiroth simply because it's the hero. It's rock-paper-scissors if you
will. Seph beats Link, Link beats Cloud, Cloud beats Seph.
I'm not implying that Cloud would wipe the floor with Sephiroth, but Cloud would win with a fairly comfortable margin.
And
as far as retiring the champ is concerned, if Link fails to impress in
his next two matches, he would likely lose next year since he would be
much less popular with the bracketeers. The reason why Link was such a
heavy favorite from the start is because he squashed Square's main man
(or close second) BADLY. Looks like he can't repeat that this year. I
know... if Cloud comes close, I'll have him taking the tournament
regardless of whether Link is back or not.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 98/104, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Cloud over Sonic |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/29/2003 6:06:06 PM | Message Detail |
And
I've got the million dollar question. DOES LINK HAVE A CLUTCH? Never
needed it... until now. It'll be cool to see. Mario used it, Samus used
it... why not Link?
You do have a point. Link fans have
never had to recruit voters or cheat to get past an opponent. Cloud had
a higher "base popularity" then Mario last year, Mario "cheated" for
the win. Link and Cloud start seem to be about equal. But if Nintendo
fans cheat as well as some people claim, Cloud will lose by a lot more
then people think. 200,000 vote match anybody?
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..." |
| From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/29/2003 6:08:44 PM | Message Detail |
Team Rocket... I think the only way we'll get close to 200,000 is if we see a sephiroth/link final.
---
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/MyAnime/index.php?categ=10&user=ChichiriMuyo |
| From: swirldude | Posted: 8/29/2003 6:10:03 PM | Message Detail |
If
Link does beat Cloud, the only interesting final would be Link/Megaman.
I do not want to see Link vs Mario or Link vs Seph again. What a bore.
The best final would be Cloud vs Mario. Let's see that madness again!
---
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| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/29/2003 6:12:59 PM | Message Detail |
Link
vs. Seph would be good... we'd have a great point of reference in the
Cloud/Seph feud, unlike Alucard where the two fights were a year apart.
These two matches would only be separated by Seph/Mega.
My point is... if you vote for Link on Monday, we still get Cloud vs. Seph!
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 98/104, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Cloud over Sonic |
| From: swirldude | Posted: 8/29/2003 6:14:44 PM | Message Detail |
If
Cloud makes this interesting (like a 52-48 match), then maybe I'll look
forward to a Link-Seph final. But Link beat Seph 55-45 last year, and
he's still a powerhouse. It'll all depend on Link vs Cloud to see if
Link vs Seph would be interesting. If Link beats Cloud the way he beat
Seph, get ready for a boring final.
---
Without a signature, a terrible thing happens. NOTHING!
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| From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/29/2003 7:55:43 PM | Message Detail |
Sorry for not posting much, I've just been too busy.
Stats site news:
- Top 10 lists are not updated. Sorry, I'll catch up soon.
- Contest Averages are updated.
- A new poll is up.
-
Fourth Round Stats are being updated, just not in their own section.
I'll get that up soon, but until then you'll have to check All Stats
for them.
- Third Round Top/Full Lists will be addd when I get a chance (hopefully this weekend).
- The second stats topic will be archived after everything else is done (formatting this probably takes the longest).
That's
about it, I think. Just wanted to give a quick update. I hate that I'm
this far behind and I haven't been able to post any analysis. There
will have to be some changes for next year.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 8/29/2003 8:01:51 PM | Message Detail |
Well,
Sonic has finally been put down, the poor guy. This match makes him
look weak, but IMO, he had the hardest route to the Elite Eight.
Ken,
while not being of Ryu's popularity, is still no pushover. Zero seems
to have a good majority of Mega Man's popularity, and is the strongest
new character in the contest, IMO. And Aeris... well, we all know how
strong she is.
Speaking of Zero, who does everyone feel was the strongest new character to the contest?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: 91/112
Vote Sephiroth! |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/29/2003 8:15:23 PM | Message Detail |
For
Cloud to stand a chance against Link, I don't think Sephiroth will need
to beat Mario by a large margin...you've seen how Mario goes from
looking bad against slighty-weaker characters to holding out against
the strongest ones...
Now about that theory that heroes are
voted more than the villain if they are from the same game...could it
also applied even when they're both from different games in certain
cases? We know that countless people love both Final Fantasy VII and
the Zelda series and would hardly prefer one over the other (I'm sure
FF7 and Zelda games overlap in fanbases a lot as well, unlike
Mario/Final Fantasy), so perhaps it would make sense that a lot who
love both Zelda and FF would just vote Link over Sephiroth just because
Link is a hero, even though they're from different games...
Bleh,
whatever. I've always expected Cloud to perform a bit better than
Sephiroth against Link...and it seems appropriate to say right now. =p
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/29/2003 8:19:38 PM | Message Detail |
Strongest
new character, eh? Tough choice...either Shadow or Zero, most likely.
It's tough to gauge Shadow, as he faced Mario...but I guess I'll say
Zero since he almost took Sega's number one mascot down.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 8/29/2003 8:28:21 PM | Message Detail |
Strongest new character? Depends on how Megaman does rest of the way, Zelda, Magus, or Zero.
Didn't
Link take over 57% of the votes against Sephiroth last year? If it was
55% I would be more optimistic for Cloud but I feel that 14%+ gap is
insurmountable. |
| From: swirldude | Posted: 8/29/2003 9:20:35 PM | Message Detail |
Shadow. I mean, he gets over 40% on Mr. Nintendo, you know, the guy who still beat Crono regardless? Shadow = Awesome
---
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| From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2003 9:59:54 PM | Message Detail |
Shadow,
Zero, Bowser, Ganon, Magus, and Zelda are all candidates for strongest
new character. (yes Magus beat Ganon, but it was essentially a tie)
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/29/2003 10:24:41 PM | Message Detail |
Well,
the poll's just started but it looks like Sephiroth has aquired himself
a very comfortable lead. It will be interesting to see whether Mario
makes any sort of a comeback during the day (and perhaps a last minute
charage again).
If thing's stay as they are 56/44, Sephiroth
will definitely be a step above Cloud and *sigh* Crono. But I think
it's too early to discuss this match in detail, I'll have to wait until
it's over.
I was absolutely shocked by Sonic's performance. He
tied with Samus, and Samus got 47% on Sephiroth, and Sephiroth's
probably stronger than Cloud, so I guess that proves you can't really
make a prediction on those kind of comparisons accuratley all the time.
Cloud is looking pretty strong, but so is Link. I know I just knocked
comparisons, but Sephie only got 43% on him last year. And now
with the bracket voters, I'd say Link is in even better shape. Cloud
has improved as well too, so while I think he may be able to do
slightly better than Sephiroth, I'm guessing that Cloud will peak
somewhere at about 45%.
Please retire Link, and any other contest winners in future competions, it just makes things so much more interesting.
I'd
say the strongest new competitor is either Zero or Bowser. Possibly
Zelda, if Mega Man does better. I might say Shadow if I didn't hate him
so much. Magus is a consideraton too... but I think Bowser/Zero would
be able to beat him.
Hopefully this match will knock off a lot
of Mario supporters, because Snowflake is going to have to move up a
couple spots to win a prize.
---
... |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2003 10:31:09 PM | Message Detail |
If thing's stay as they are 56/44, Sephiroth will definitely be a step above Cloud and *sigh* Crono.
I
most definitely disagree with this. Sephiroth would then be clearly
above Crono, yes, but not Cloud. If anything, Cloud would be slightly
greater than Sephiroth if Sephiroth only wins with 56% (of course, he's
at 57.65% right now, which is more reasonable). There isn't that
much difference between Mario and Sonic. To me, it is still somehwhat
unclear who would win that. I would say Mario with maybe 52% or so.
Remember,
this year's Cloud would be very probably be able to trash last year's
Mario fairly badly, and Mario's popularity this year appears to be
equal to last year.
Please retire Link, and any other contest winners in future competions, it just makes things so much more interesting.
It
makes things less credible. Unless you pull the "this years winner has
to face last year's winner afterwards". But if Link does lose to
Cloud--or even if he gets less than 52%, which is very possible--then
retiring Link isn't entirely necessary, though I do think most would
want him to be retired.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: NT220 | Posted: 8/29/2003 10:31:31 PM | Message Detail |
...
I cannot believe this. Only 54% of brackets had Cloud winning the East
division? Cloud, who everyone in this topic pretty much agreed is a
lock for at least the final four?
Any bracket voters, if they still exist, are definitely going to be in favor of Link in that match.
---
"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
| From: NT220 | Posted: 8/29/2003 10:35:33 PM | Message Detail |
Oh,
and about retiring the champion... what about a Challenge Round system?
Retire the defending champion from next year's contest, but add a
challenge round after next year's final, which would have the two
champions squaring off against each other. That round could be worth 64
points, bringing the possible point total to a nice even (if you're
familiar with computers) 256.
---
"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
| From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/29/2003 10:41:57 PM | Message Detail |
I
think it would be great if Link was left out of the competition, but
had to face the winner of next year's. He could be the reigning
champion, until someone knocks him off, kind of like in the RPG
Playoffs.
I really don't think Cloud stands a chance in this
match, but I don't really mind, either. All the characters that I
would've wanted to win against Link were knocked off in the first or
second round. Megaman's the only one left that I'd vote against him,
but I don't realistically see that happening. Unless Megaman's being on
the GameCube and Game Boy Advance has really swayed Nintendo fans in
his favor, he'll probably do even worse against Sephiroth than last
year, thanks to the Kingdom Hearts factor. Oh well, maybe next year
we'll get to see Megaman in the finals. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/29/2003 10:59:45 PM | Message Detail |
I now project Cloud to defeat Link.
In
my mind, he is the favorite. Link's best hopes are the bracker voters
(who will be more of a factor than they were before, in *any* match, EVER), as well as the Soul Calibur 2 factor.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 8/29/2003 11:42:16 PM | Message Detail |
Some comments for Sephiroth vs Mario
-The
percentage gap between Mario vs Sephiroth actually thwarts nintendo vs
nintendo theory. Link beat Sephiroth by 14% and then proceeded to beat
Mario by 30%. So assuming Nintendo vs Nintendo factor is minimal,
Sephiroth beating Mario by 16% is no surprise. HOWEVER, is Sephiroth
that much more popular than Cloud? Even before PGC came into play last
year, Cloud was only 1% or so ahead of Mario with the lead vanishing
quickly. I might have discovered something here that may never be
proven. Sephiroth either gained huge KH support or he is just
significantly more popular than Cloud. Whatever you want to believe I
guess...
-Kingdom Hearts factor may or may not exist. Squall was
underestimated to begin with. Assuming Alucard's popularity remained
status quo from last year, and also assuming Cloud = Sephiroth, the
popularity increase translates to only 2-3% gain against Alucard, which
may be more like 1-2% against someone like Link. This certainly doesn't
help Cloud against Link.
-With that said, I don't think Cloud
can beat Sephiroth. I do believe in good vs. evil theory, but Sephiroth
may be the only exception to this rule, as he is the only top tier
villain in the tournament. Most of these issues will be cleared Monday
when Link goes up against either his greatest challenger, or a weaker
version of a character he has already beaten by 14%+. I can't wait! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 12:00:26 AM | Message Detail |
Sephiroth
either gained huge KH support or he is just significantly more popular
than Cloud. Whatever you want to believe I guess...
No, the
evidence is clear. Read my previous posts. Cloud=Sephiroth, rougly,
from what we have seen. Neither's popularity level is comparable to
what it was last year.
Assuming Alucard's popularity
remained status quo from last year, and also assuming Cloud =
Sephiroth, the popularity increase translates to only 2-3% gain against
Alucard, which may be more like 1-2% against someone like Link.
That is only one piece of evidence. Everything else points in the other direction, very much so.
Let
us assume that Sephiroth will finish with 58% against Mario, and that
Mario and Link have the same popularity as last year. This implies that
Link will defeat Sephiroth with 54.7% of the vote this year. However,
this is completely ignoring the "same fanbase factor" which supposedly
hurt Mario against Link. It seems that this factor may have been highly
overrated, but it still probably made a little bit of a difference. If
you believe that Mario was actually worth 40% against Link, that bumps
Sephiroth up and implies Link would beat him by 52.07%. That falls into
the "tough to call category".
However, as I have stated before, there is a huge amount of evidence that Link won't even make it to Sephiroth.
It
appears as though that, among "casual" fans of this contest, Link is
still a monumental favorite. Whenever I see someone post that Cloud has
a chance against Link, that person gets completely dismissed by most
users. I can only imagine the chaos that will ensue on this board when
that match is very close. I suppose many will be surprised, but they
should not be.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 8/30/2003 12:23:15 AM | Message Detail |
What
I meant to say was that maybe KH factor only works against certain
opponents, more likely middle tier characters. Remember, in order for
Cloud to defeat Link, KH factor has to be absolutely huge.
-So far KH factor may have worked on Squall vs Luigi and Squall vs Jill, but not Squall vs Samus.
-Was
it KH factor at work when Cloud destroyed Sonic? Then howcome it didn't
work with Aeris vs Sonic? Aeris was supposed to be almost at Sonic's
level anyway.
-As mentioned above, KH factor doesn't seem to bother Alucard all that much.
-I
believe Sephiroth is naturally more popular(at least on this site) than
Mario without any intangibles. Results would have been more or less
similar if they battled last year IMO.
Even if we discard ALL
other cases and assume Cloud=Sephiroth and KH factor helped Sephiroth
gain 18% against MARIO(I really doubt this), that is still far below
Link's near 30% on Mario. You did mention that Link's 30% on Mario is
actually more like 20%, that we will see come monday. There will have
to be too many hypothesis' working in favor of Cloud for him to win
IMO. Not just one, but SEVERAL.
|
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 12:36:09 AM | Message Detail |
Remember, in order for Cloud to defeat Link, KH factor has to be absolutely huge.
KHF has shown itself to be monumental.
-So far KH factor may have worked on Squall vs Luigi and Squall vs Jill, but not Squall vs Samus.
Squall
would have been .41x Samus last year. This year, he was .72x Samus. An
improvement of 76%. Lower that if you think Squall was underrated due
to trickle down effect of the Mario vs. Link "Same Fanbase Factor".
There's still no way Squall didn't improve against Samus by less than
35%.
-Was it KH factor at work when Cloud destroyed Sonic?
Then howcome it didn't work with Aeris vs Sonic? Aeris was supposed to
be almost at Sonic's level anyway.
She most certainly was
not! Without KH, she would've lost by a good bit. She got 43.5% against
Snake last year, and Sonic last year was at least equal to Snake. In
actuality, even adjusting for a bunch of stuff (SFF, Sonic's popularity
decreasing, etc.), Aeris improved by at least 20% relative to her
popularity last year.
-As mentioned above, KH factor doesn't seem to bother Alucard all that much.
This seems true. But it is an isolated piece of evidence against overwhelming evidence.
-I
believe Sephiroth is naturally more popular(at least on this site) than
Mario without any intangibles. Results would have been more or less
similar if they battled last year IMO.
Since Cloud was 53/47
against Mario before interference, I agree that Sephiroth would've
beaten Mario last year. But not this bad, no way. Sephiroth improved by
at least 10% (that's 10% as in his popularity is 1.1 times what it was
before, not 10% as in the polls), and that's a conservative estimate.
Give him a 10% boost, and Sephiroth '02 would've gotten 45.7% against
Link rather than 43.4%.
There will have to be too many hypothesis' working in favor of Cloud for him to win IMO. Not just one, but SEVERAL
No, the only one he needs to severly challenge Link is massive KHF. And that factor is in the bag.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/30/2003 3:45:03 AM | Message Detail |
To
whoever talked about the same fanbase factor: well, Nintendo vs.
Nintendo, like I said yesterday, seems to be nulled by the fact that
neither character has full support. The only way there could be a big
one is when the characters are similar (Cloud/Auron, Mario/DK)
But
I definitely did not expect such PWNAGE from Sephiroth. 60-40? You
gotta be kidding me! Now Megaman stands virtually no chance, and
Link... OMG this is so going to be interesting...
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 98/104, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (27-way)
Today's pick: Mario over Sephiroth |
| From: Star Magician | Posted: 8/30/2003 3:57:05 AM | Message Detail |
I am SHOCKED.
60-40.
OMG!! Some may have predicted this, but I thought it would be close. I
wasn't sure who to vote for, but since Sephiroth is probably going to
win, I just cast a vote for Mario so he wouldn't look as bad.
---
I am the shadow, the keeper of light. If you want the sun's power, show me your own. ~Dullahan
Supporting Cloud, Mario, and Mega Man. |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 5:30:14 AM | Message Detail |
Sephiroth
is almost matching Link's domination of last year through four rounds.
There is actually an excellent chance that like with Link, no one will get more than 44% of off him before the Finals (depending on how well Mega Man does).
And
remember that while Sephiroth's path to the Elite Eight was easy,
Link's path to the Final Four last year was a complete joke.
Cloud
has also been equally as impressive as Sephiroth, but of course
Sephiroth will do better against Mega Man than Cloud against Link.
Here are there averages so far, taking Sephiroth's performance against Mario to be 59% (it's at 60.21% right now):
___________Link '02___Cloud '03___Sephiroth '03
1st 3 rounds: 77.57%___76.38%___78.98%
1st 4 rounds: 77.17%___73.84%___73.99%
1st 5 rounds: 73.06%_____-_________-
All rounds__: 71.31%_____-_________-
Performance Summaries:
Link '02:
Little Mac: 84.31%
Strider: 75.77%
Jill: 72.63%
Scorpion: 75.98%
Sephiroth: 56.65%
Mario: 62.53%
Cloud '03:
CATS: 86.91%
Auron: 72.20%
Bowser: 70.03%
Sonic: 66.21%
Link: ?
Sephiroth '03:
Raziel: 82.00%
Max Payne: 82.67%
Alucard: 72.28%
Mario: *59.00%
Mega Man: ?
* still in progress, estimate
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/30/2003 5:38:42 AM | Message Detail |
This
match is amazing. Utterly amazing. How could Sephiroth make it look so
easy when Cloud himself could not take down Mario? Better yet, Crono
couldn`t do it, and he had two shots at it.
Yet in comes Sephiroth, and it`s a 60-40 blowout? Did Crono`s loss affect the match THAT MUCH? My God...
---
~~Voted best username on the SC2K3 board~~, Boards Hunted: 461
|
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 5:54:17 AM | Message Detail |
Crono's
loss was probably not a factor at all. There is no way more than a few
hundred people changed their votes based on Mario vs. Crono. While you
would think most of those probably voted early on, thus helping to give
Sephiroth an early lead, Sephiroth was actually gaining almost
constantly %-wise until about an hour ago, so there goes that idea. In
any event, no matter when they vote, the "revenge" votes cannot make
more than a relatively miniscule difference in this match. I'm actually
surprised that theory has been bandied about so much on this board.
Also,
Cloud vs. Mario last year cannot be directly compared to this result.
Ample evidence suggests that Cloud would have done the same thing to
Mario this year.
Why people initially thought Mario was that much greater than Sonic after the Cloud vs. Sonic result, I have no idea.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 8/30/2003 6:14:27 AM | Message Detail |
It
looks like this match might break the Mario vs. Crono vote record. That
match had 34,682 votes by 08:00 poll time/Central time (6am new
GameFAQs time), whereas this match has 34,369. But of course Mario vs.
Crono started earlier, so this match might actually be ahead of the
pace. The (infamous) extra 15 minutes Mario vs. Crono had might make
the difference in which match gets the record.
BTW, I'm
predicting close to 145,000 votes (very possibly 150,000+) for Link vs.
Cloud, which in some ways will help to reduce the bracket voter
advantage. The more total votes, the better for Cloud, as the bracket
voters will represent a smaller proportion of the voting population.
Last
year, the voting totals jumped a lot for Round 3, and then again for
Round 4. Across each of the rounds, the average vote totals were:
Round 1 - 60,272
Round 2 - 64,292
Round 3 - 77,816
Round 4 - 104,419
Round 5 - 105,209
Final - 98,211
This
year's vote totals have been fairly constant until the spike up with
Mario vs. Crono. They went back down again until this match, which was
apparently anticipated very highly. I expect Link vs. Cloud to be even
more anticipated, and that match is on a weekday. It has the potential
to shatter the vote record.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
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