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Summer 2003 Contest
Stats & Discussion -- Summer 2003 Contest -- Mark III
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/27/2003 9:25:39 AM | Message Detail
Actually, upsets in prediction percentages shouldn't work for rounds 2 and beyond, since you can have, say, Master Chief, Zero, Scorpion, etc. in the Elite 8. There's a possibility that Sonic was the most common choice to take the lower East, so it wouldn't be an upset.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 86/92, 0 lost . . . . T-29 (31-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Vercetti
From: BigCow | Posted: 8/27/2003 9:29:25 AM | Message Detail
I'm well aware of that, we have no way of knowing all the prediction percentages there. However, we know who the most popular pick was for all the majority cases. I'm simply identifying the characters that weren't a majority pick.

And that's still only one character for round three, and a handful for round two. There were a lot of majority picks, these are simply the ones so far that weren't overwhelmingly obvious. It's possible that aside from Link's and Cloud's next matches, we may see no more majority winners.

Also, we don't know Snake's precentage to win yet either.
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From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/27/2003 9:29:40 AM | Message Detail
As Big Cow pointed out, there's only one and two seeds left.
Blah :P

Link's and Cloud's spots in the final four are pretty much assured. Mario/Sephie will be a tossup, and now it seems like I'm not the only one having second thoughts about the Mega Man/Snake match.
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...
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/27/2003 9:31:08 AM | Message Detail
65.68% for Snake, BigCow.

And you know what's funny? Even LINK winning the tourney wouldn't be a majority pick.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 86/92, 0 lost . . . . T-29 (31-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Vercetti
From: BigCow | Posted: 8/27/2003 9:35:33 AM | Message Detail
Thanks Slowflake, it still doesn't show up on mine.

Link winning the tourney would be 42.79%, whereas second place, Sephiroth, would be 7.95%. He's the clear plurality favorite, but he's not a majority pick.

It's still pretty disgusting. Last year Mario was the overwhelming pick to win with 1:6 odds or something, and Link was 1:9. This year, Link's 1:1 or something. It's kind of sad that everyone bets on the winner, and that likely influences the voting.

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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/27/2003 9:43:25 AM | Message Detail
Well, I don't think Cloud or Sephiroth would have stood a chance to begin with. I say remove the bracket part of the tournament if there's going to be one next year. I'm all for that, despite having a great shot to win a prize right now. (Speaking of which, I'm fully expecting to gain a few places from those who picked Vercetti to win today.)
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 86/92, 0 lost . . . . T-29 (31-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Vercetti
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/27/2003 10:28:41 AM | Message Detail
Mega Man vs Vercetti Review
So much for the power of Vercetti. *Hears the sounds of 2260 brackets being ripped to shreds.* Four things to pull from this match.

1. I was way off in thinking the bracket-voters would pull this match to at least the 60/40 range.
2. Vercetti ends up being the contest's stronger version of Gordon Freeman, meaning -- Very popular game with a not so popular main character.
3. Zelda's stock is rising since MM had more trouble with her than with Tommy
4. Everyone who was pushing the panic button for Mega Man after the 2nd round, false alarm. Nothing to worry about!

So with Snake/Mega Man on the horizon, I feel that this match is Mega Man's to lose. Snake has shown himself to be only as strong as he was last year, while the blue bomber, who came within 1000 votes of Sephiroth, certainly hasn't lost any popularity. (but rather is facing much stronger competition) So if the Snake of last year most likely would have lost to the Mega Man of last year, I don't see much changing in the actual confrontation
From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/27/2003 12:28:58 PM | Message Detail
Yay! I predicted all of the Elite Eight correctly, and I'll probably be in the top 50 by tomorrow! Megaman's during worse against Vercetti than I thought he would but it's still good enough for me to confident of his Final Four chances. This match makes Zelda look really good and makes Kite look a little better, IMO
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Evile Ninja Team Member
The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/27/2003 5:12:17 PM | Message Detail
Like Yesmar, I'll likely be in the Top 50 tomorrow! Hurray for us!

(Before I start, a question: in KH, did Cloud REALLY grow bat wings and huge biceps or is it something my mind made up with these ****ed up pics?)

West Semifinal #2 Review

Let's say... I expected a bit more than Megaman just doubling Vercetti. I expected something more along the lines of 70-30 MM. But Megaman falling in popularity is highly questionable... what about the Battle Network games? Nonetheless, some people, including me, are starting to worry about Snake, who was rather unimpressive again this year, save for his "new and improved Knuckles cocktail". But... it wouldn't surprise me if Vercetti had the Master Chief factor going for him... armies of haters, but die-hard fans who can alter the numbers.

North Final Preview

Sit comfortably on the couch, sip a Fanta Shokata or two, annoy the board with them on your brand new laptop, and enjoy the massacre... because this is what to expect from tomorrow's match. Link beat MARIO 63-37. However, there doesn't seem to be too much Samus hate, so this could be the only chance for Samus to do better than Mr. Nintendo. Metroid Prime and Fusion made a big impact last year, but so did Wind Waker, and the potential haters brought by the graphics weren't nearly as numerous as once thought. Plus, Link had his two massive blowouts with a WW pic. If we get an OoT, SSBM or SC2 pic from now on... bar one more source, if not of anti-votes, at least of worry.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 86/92, 0 lost . . . . T-29 (31-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Vercetti
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/27/2003 5:57:08 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, there have been very few prediction upsets past Round 1 in these contest it seems...

Here are characters that definitely weren't picked by the most brackets to win in 2002, aside from R1.

Scorpion (making top 16) - more thought Max Payne would get there.
Alucard (making top 16) - more thought Duke Nukem XD would get there.
Scorpion (making top 8)) - more thought Pac-Man would have that spot.
Crono (making top 4) - more thought Snake would do it...a LOT more.
Link (winning it all) - more thought Mario would win...and perhaps Solid Snake or Sephiroth, as well.

Possible other ones in 2002...
Jill Valentine (making top 16) - more may have expected Kirby or Bomberman to achieve this. It boggles my mind that so many thought Jill would beat Kirby, yet lose to Bomberman. Must've been because of Kirby's low seed...
Samus (making top 8) - more may have expected Sonic to reach R4...but this a big maybe, especially since this was one of the most competive groups of 8 characters.

Obvious ones for 2003...
Magus (making top 16) - apparently he's the only one who was clearly a surprise this tourney, as less than 25% predicted him to get this far. Tidus and/or Ganondorf were picked more than Magus.

Possible ones for 2003...
Squall (making top 16) - Luigi?
Bowser (making top 16) - Yoshi?
Ryu (making top 16) - Was Dante the favorite?
NONE in Round 3 so far....but if Crono won against Mario, the correct amount of brackets could've been under 15%...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: creativename | Posted: 8/27/2003 6:12:05 PM | Message Detail
P.S. creativename... I tried to email it to you already but your email address wasn't working... I got "mail undeliverable" messages for everything I sent you.

Thanks for trying durron :) Don't know why it did that, the account seems to be working fine. Did you get my e-mail from the Hotmail account, BTW (creativename000@hotmail.com)?

Mega Man vs. Snake:

Mega Man is really disappointing me here. I was expecting much worse than this. I was mostly discounting the rumblings about Snake being a threat to him before, but now I'm not so sure. If his improved performance really does reflect that Snake's popularity has improved by a little bit, he has a great shot at beating Mega Man, something I never would've considered before this contest started. In fact, I barely gave that match a second thought as late as last week.
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Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/27/2003 10:35:09 PM | Message Detail
And once again, it seems that Mega Man is indeed a victim of those protecting their brackets. Only 31.11% had the blue bomber going the the Elite 8, the lowest of all the remaining characters. Every other character except for Sonic is above 50%, and Mega Man easily a has better chance at taking the contest than Sonic.

So it seems like alot of these brackets were for Vercetti. I mean, the only other characters that could have gotten those picks were DK & Zelda, but c'mon, Vercetti was the one with the 6th highest picked to win total. Put another plus on MM's victory yesterday.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/27/2003 10:42:26 PM | Message Detail
Remember the list of predicted percentages against Link made based on last year's performance? Samus was predicted to get 41.065%. As of right now, Samus has 40.73%. I know it's a bit early to call and the percentages are likely to change by quite a bit. But isn't it a bit eerie how accurate its been? It also predicted Fox's percentage almost perfectly. Magus got a bit higher then Ganondorf who got a bit higher then Tidus. Magus got slightly higher then Tidus' predicted percentage against Link.
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I got the first vote in the Link vs Samus battle!
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Vote_1_Link.jpg
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/27/2003 10:42:46 PM | Message Detail
And, Oh yes! Kudos to Snowflake for getting in the Top 50!
From: cyko | Posted: 8/28/2003 4:33:07 AM | Message Detail
alright Slowflake! number 39!

i don't have time for any full match reviews at the moment, but with the amount of bracket voters Vercetti had, i would say that Megaman did pretty well against him. he had almost 60000 non-bracket/casual votes. Megaman vs. Solid Snake looks like it will be close, but Megaman looks like he will be strong enough to pull it out.

and tomorrow, Cloud will destroy Sonic. he barely beat Aeris, and Cloud is miles ahead of Aeris. it will be like the Link vs. Scorpion match of last year. well, maybe not that bad, since Sonic is much more deserving of an elite eight spot than Scorpion; but still the biggest blowout this round.

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"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back
From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/28/2003 5:26:10 AM | Message Detail
Nice work Snowflake! Hopefully you can continue to move up... what if you won a prize? That'd be so sweet!

And, do my eyes deceive me, or is Mega Man's prediction percentage the lowest of all the elite 8 characters?

*feints*
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...
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/28/2003 5:44:38 AM | Message Detail
FINALLY, SLOWFLAKE HAS COME BACK TO THE TOP 50!

If Sephiroth goes to the finals, then yes, I might very well win a prize. Mario vs. Crono not even getting 135000 votes gives me more confidence in my tiebreaker.

But today is STATS DAY! Coming later:

-Overall standings by half-division
-Round 3 predictions
-Vote counts: 2002 vs. 2003 (first 3 rounds)


LOL, I just found out how to skip two lines without putting anything in either one!

No Winners And Losers, since there wouldn't be enough substance to make one, but I'll still give the Star and Turd awards.

STAR OF THE ROUND: Aeris Gainsborough (E11): No one was particularly impressive this round, so I have to give the nod to Aeris here. Despite what numbers tend to say, she kept up easily with Sonic during nighttime. For a supporting character, even from FF7, it's quite an impressive performance.

TURD OF THE ROUND: Bowser (E5): He's the first character to have won both awards (he got the Star award in round 1). 70-30 is the kind of whipping we expected from YOSHI over Bowser in June! Having beaten the same Yoshi, who's still popular among Nintendites, Bowser had a good chance for an upset, or at least a great performance, against Cloud. He blew it. Hardcore. Big time. As MMX put it so well... sorry Bowser, but your championship is in another tournament.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 90/96, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Link over Samus
From: Shake | Posted: 8/28/2003 5:57:00 AM | Message Detail
Hi guys.

This is a great topic, and I lurk here all the time. I just wanted to discuss what surprised me in the Prophetic Predictions topic.

Crono got a lot of wins there before the match happened. A lot of you agreed that Sephiroth has a stronger fanbase then Crono, and after his blow-out against Alucard I heard someone say he probably was slightly stronger then Cloud.

I am getting eery by Mario's "clutch" ability, but when I saw more people going for Mario there then for Sephiroth, I was a bit surprised.

So I wanted to ask in this topic, how many of you think Mario is going to beat Sephiroth?
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OH MAH GAWD,WHAT THE HELL IS CJAYC DOING WITH THAT DAMN CHAIR!Mario's up!Dammit,not like this!Mario pins Crono! Its a damn screwjob, by gawd!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:01:12 AM | Message Detail
*doesn't raise hand*

While the hardcore voters make up for very little of the vote in normal matches, these guys ARE the vote-stuffers in Mario matches. And the Square ones will be motivated to boot. Cloud, Crono, then Crono again... but this time they have an even more powerful character to back in Sephiroth. Plus, there are the now split bracket-voters...

But Mario Magic does worry me though.

Before I'm done... BAH GAWD THAWT'S A NAYCE SIG SHAYKE!
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 90/96, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Link over Samus
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:07:15 AM | Message Detail
Darn, looks like there won't be any 2002 vs. 2003 vote counts today... the second topic isn't up yet at Solar's site.

A prediction though... today we will have, for the first and probably only time, NEGATIVE VARIATION. Last year was, if you remember, Mario vs. Cloud, still #2 of all time in terms of vote turnout.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 90/96, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Link over Samus
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:08:13 AM | Message Detail
OVERALL STANDINGS BY HALF-DIVISION

Upper North

1. 50.00% Link
2. 34.93% Magus
3. 34.72% Ganondorf
4. 34.25% Tidus
5. 23.58% Sam Fisher
6. 17.54% Fox
7. 10.99% Pikachu
8. 08.65% AiAi

Lower North

1. 50.00% Samus
2. 41.80% Squall
3. 33.45% Jill
4. 33.26% Luigi
5. 30.25% KOS-MOS
6. 24.66% Isaac
7. 23.00% Crash
8. 16.94% Ratchet

Upper East

1. 50.00% Cloud
2. 29.97% Bowser
3. 27.80% Auron
4. 26.17% Yoshi
5. 19.75% Tails
6. 17.55% Conker
7. 14.94% Ness
8. 13.09% CATS

Lower East

1. 50.00% Sonic
2. 47.66% Zero
3. 46.98% Aeris
4. 37.44% Master Chief
5. 35.42% Scorpion
6. 35.22% Felix
7. 31.33% Sora
8. 31.09% Ken

Upper South

1. 50.00% Mario
2. 49.95% Crono
3. 44.90% Shadow
4. 31.52% Wario
5. 21.06% Kefka
6. 20.66% Pac-Man
7. 14.18% Tom Nook
8. 11.58% Olimar

Lower South

1. 50.00% Sephiroth
2. 27.72% Alucard
3. 26.49% Kirby
4. 22.43% Ramza
5. 19.70% Bomberman
6. 18.00% Raziel
7. 17.33% Max Payne
8. 15.95% Gordon Freeman

Upper West

1. 50.00% Snake
2. 42.74% Ryu
3. 39.31% Dante
4. 36.87% Knuckles
5. 32.95% Yuna
6. 25.71% Duke
7. 17.57% Ryo
8. 17.12% Raiden

Lower West

1. 50.00% Megaman
2. 39.25% Zelda
3. 33.14% Vercetti
4. 32.82% DK
5. 29.60% Lara
6. 24.67% Vyse
7. 23.04% Kite
8. 11.04% Resetti

ROUND 3 PREDICTIONS

2003

84.53% . Link
73.13% . Cloud
70.89% . Sephiroth
65.68% . Snake
65.42% . Mario
64.90% . Samus
33.76% . Sonic
31.11% . Megaman

All-Time

84.53% . 2003 Link
73.13% . 2003 Cloud
72.52% . 2002 Mario
70.89% . 2003 Sephiroth
69.01% . 2002 Link
67.51% . 2002 Snake
65.68% . 2003 Snake
65.42% . 2003 Mario
64.90% . 2003 Samus
55.74% . 2002 Sephiroth
53.53% . 2002 Cloud
33.76% . 2003 Sonic
33.05% . 2002 Crono
31.75% . 2002 Samus
31.11% . 2003 Megaman
17.33% . 2002 Scorpion
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 90/96, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Link over Samus
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:18:35 AM | Message Detail
Comments on above stats:

-Link is absolutely DOMINANT in the predictions department. How surprising.

-Megaman will soooo not have the bracket-vote advantage next round. Neither did he against Sephiroth last year, though...

-Speaking of Megaman, on second thought, he isn't doing so bad. Lara'd get 29.6% of the vote against him, which is about the same percentage she got against Crono. Crono beat Snake last year...

-Cloud and Sephiroth are steamrolling over the competition. They have yet to get below 70% in a match this year. Link had some stiff competition in his half-division though, that's why he's not up there with them.

-On the opposite end of the spectrum, EVERYONE would have gotten Sonic down below 70%.

-The last of each half-division are all 15 and 16 seeds, except Ratchet (14) and Gordon (7).

-Of course, the first of each half-division are all 1 and 2 seeds.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 90/96, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Link over Samus
From: Shake | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:23:18 AM | Message Detail
Thanks Snowflake, Ryu Senkari made a hilarious topic and I just pasted the best lines to my sig. I had to much of it to add his name to it, so I'll just give him props here. The original was much longer though and ended with the unforgettable line: WHERE'S MY BARBECUE SAUCE ?!!!!

That aside though, Cloud is going to put on a great performance against Sonic if he wants to calm my worry's this Samus vs Link matchup has stirred. 60 to 40 is an awesome percentage, although I hope it can at least partially be because of the split fanbase.

He needs 60 to 65 % against Sonic to counter this latest Link match, and that is no easy task.
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OH MAH GAWD,WHAT THE HELL IS CJAYC DOING WITH THAT DAMN CHAIR!Mario's up!Dammit,not like this!Mario pins Crono! Its a damn screwjob, by gawd!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:25:13 AM | Message Detail
Yep... if anything, Samus is even stronger than Sonic. Both were virtually tied last year, and with Prime and Fusion... ouch. Add to that those who, like me, voted Samus today but will vote Link against Cloud and whoever... ouchie.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 90/96, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Link over Samus
From: Shake | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:34:34 AM | Message Detail
I agree : I was a bit enthusiastic after Cloud vs Bowser, but things are looking down for the alledged baby-eater.

We will have to wait untill after the Sonic match before we can really gauge what he is made of. I m hoping for him to surprise me and come up with 68 % or so.

Its the only way this tournament can make the semi-final exciting enough. There has to be some doubt Link CAN lose this match. Cloud= Sephiroth. And Mario cant hold a candle to Link's dog, let alone give him a hard time. If Cloud doesn't totally overrun Sonic, this tournament is over and done with.
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OH MAH GAWD,WHAT THE HELL IS CJAYC DOING WITH THAT DAMN CHAIR!Mario's up!Dammit,not like this!Mario pins Crono! Its a damn screwjob, by gawd!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:44:09 AM | Message Detail
This tourny has been done and over with from the start. It was all a matter of who Link would have to face next.
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"Yes, yes, yes… the black wind howls…wails…blows…does a somersault... whatever." -MMXcalibur, Boards Hunted: 461
From: steve illumina | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:48:28 AM | Message Detail
Round 4 Analysis: Cloud vs Sonic

Bracket Pick: Cloud over Aeris, Prediction: Cloud by 61.90%

I did not have time to do a Link vs Samus Analysis, but I will say in summary that my bracket had Link over Luigi (!) but I predicted Link to beat Samus by 58.40. Currently he is doing a little better than that. The split Nintendite vote in favor of the more liked Link and the 'lets protect our' bracket voters are too much for Samus to overcome...

As for Cloud and Sonic: this should be the easiest of the Elite Eight matches to call, with the second #2 seed in a row to fall. Sonic has had his problems with Zero and now Aeris. These problems do not bode well for him taking on Square juggernaut Cloud.

Of who is left, Sonic has the least amount of brackets putting him on the winners stand. That small fact tells the tale there. He will draw the Sega Squadrons who wish to save their only representative left from defeat. He will draw Nintendites who just cant stand FF7 or Square or Cloud, he will draw some kiddies. But it wont be enough, for Cloud is too strong and too well liked. It will be a battle of RPG's greatest heros in the first of two semifinals next week...Sonic just cannot win this one...he lacks the overwhelming support he needs.

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Trivia 9: CheeseStrikesBack! Score: 73/96 Today: 'Go Link!'
"Digdogger hates certain kind of sound." -Old Man, Zelda 1
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:51:33 AM | Message Detail
It will be a battle of RPG's greatest heros in the first of two semifinals next week...

Zelda is not an RPG. Jesus...
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~~Voted best username on the SC2K3 board~~, Boards Hunted: 461
From: BigCow | Posted: 8/28/2003 10:15:06 AM | Message Detail
Up to Samus, 11331 people picked a losing character to win the competition.

That's 27.60% of everyone.

And the numbers will keep on climbing.

Survivors:

Link 17571
Sephiroth 3265
Mario 2953
Cloud 2482
Snake 2378
Mega Man 599
Sonic 480

Samus was my next best bet to beat Link, but Metroid Prime and Fusion only go so far. The Hyrulian looks set to win it all.
---
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/28/2003 10:53:48 AM | Message Detail
North Final Review

A scenario well familiar to us happens once again, as Link clinches his 10th win in a row. The funny thing here is that Samus is doing slightly better than Mario against the Hero of Time. Could this mean Samus is now second-in-command in the Nintendo department?

East Final Review

Another no-brainer here. It would take a miracle for Sonic to take out Cloud... 53% last round against the Gaming Spoiler Goddess (although goddesses are rarely said to look this bad) gives a fairly good clue as to how he'll perform against the lead of the same game. Thus ending the wild roller-coaster ride of the Sonic crew in this contest.

These were short, huh? These two matches are a bore. However, the other two division finals should be much more exciting...
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 90/96, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Link over Samus
From: GunMage | Posted: 8/28/2003 12:14:35 PM | Message Detail
An interesting idea, Slowflake. For some reason, I think if there ever came a Mario vs. Samus match, the lady in the Power Suit would win in the 50-55ish range. Some of the reasons I believe this are similar to why Link was victorious last year. In an all-Nintendo match, the company loyalties go out the window, and most of the voters will just choose who they like better.

Of course last year, Mario faced the full brunt of Square anti-voting because of his close wins over two of their top entries, and Link is an RPG-like character. I'm not so sure Samus could get the same amount of support as Link did, but she could get enough to defeat the plumber. Anyone have other thoughts on this?
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Bring on the upsets!
(Vs. Mode: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9727932)
From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/28/2003 12:40:56 PM | Message Detail
I think Mario would clutch it out again. I also think it'd be a fairly low vote total. Anyway, Mario should do considerably better against Sephiroth than Samus did (at least last year's Samus... but I still think he's stronger).

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...
From: cyko | Posted: 8/28/2003 2:14:23 PM | Message Detail
FFM's list up to End of Round 3:

From: FinalFantasymaster2 | Posted: 8/26/2003 12:05:01 PM | Message Detail

Ranking) Character-Vote #- Last years rank

1) Sephiroth- 260498-3
2) Cloud-253793- 5
3) Link-2460645- 1
4) Crono-234902- 4
5) Mega Man-232984- 7
6) Samus-225653- 8
7) Mario-215516- 2
8) Snake-207186- 6
9) Sonic-182088- 10
10) Aeris-180573- 11
11) Squall-174453- 38
12) Ryu-164586- 18
13) Bowser-163055- N/A
14) Tommy Vercetti-154699- N/A
15) Magus-154524- N/A
16) Alucard-149570- 15
17) Zero-118146- N/A
18) Dante-117717- 22
19) Luigi-116782- N/A
20) Shadow-116580- N/A
21) Zelda-113270- N/A
22) Ganondorf-113189- N/A
23) Donkey Kong-111484- 17
24) Kirby-106680- 33
25) Yoshi-104442- N/A
26) Auron-101669- N/A
27) Master Chief-99710- N/A
28) KOS-MOS-95387- N/A
29) Knuckles-92009- 16
30) Fox-85049- 49
31) Kefka-69051- N/A
32) Max-68067- 24
33) Tidus – 57078- 25
34) Felix – 50231- N/A
35) Pac-Man – 45905- 12
36) Yuna – 45531- N/A
37) Lara Croft – 42940- 13
38) Ramza Beoulve – 42482- N/A
39) Gordon Freeman - 41997- 42
40) Scorpion - 41916- 9
41) Miles "Tails" Prower - 38685- 34
42) Jill Valentine – 38274- 14
43) Crash Bandicoot - 37510- 29
44) Vyse - 36743- N/A
45) Wario – 36721- N/A
46) Bomberman – 36033- 19
47) Kite - 35068- N/A
48) Ken - 33146- 43
49) Sora - 32614- N/A
50) Conker - 30997- N/A
51) Pikachu – 30962- 31
52) Sam Fisher – 30866- N/A
53) Duke Nukem – 28995- 26
54) Isaac - 26560- N/A
55) Ness - 24627- N/A
56) Ratchet – 24099- N/A
57) Ryo Hazuki - 21316- 21
58) Raziel – 19838- 36
59) Raiden – 17480- N/A
60) Tom Nook - 14631- N/A
61) CATS – 14168- 61
62) Captain Olimar – 11678- N/A
63) Mr. Resetti - 11400- N/A
64) AiAi - 8802- N/A

---
"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back
From: cyko | Posted: 8/28/2003 2:17:51 PM | Message Detail
AVERAGE
1) Sepiroth-86863
2) Cloud-84597
3) Link-82015
4) Crono-78301
5) Mega Man-77661
6) Samus-75218
7) Mario-71839
8) Snake-69062
9) Sonic-60696
10) Aeris-60191
11) Zero-59073
12) Dante-58859
13) Luigi-58391
14) Shadow-58290
15) Squall-58151
16) Tidus – 57078
17) Zelda-56635
18) Ganondorf-56495
19) Donkey Kong-55742
20) Ryu-54862
21) Bowser-54352
22) Kirby-53340
23) Yoshi-52221
24) Tommy Vercetti-51566
25) Magus-51508
26) Auron-50385
27) Felix–50231
28) Master Chief-49885
29) Alucard-49857
30) KOS-MOS-47684
31) Knuckles-46005
32) Pac-Man–45905
33) Yuna–45531
34) Lara Croft-42940
35) Fox-42524
36) Ramza Beoulve-42482
37) Gordon Freeman-41997
38) Scorpion-41916
39) Miles "Tails" Prower-38685
40) Jill Valentine–38274
41) Crash Bandicoot-37510
42) Vyse-36743
43) Wario–36721
44) Bomberman–36033
45) Kite-35068
46) Kefka-34526
47) Max-34034
48) Ken-33146
49) Sora-32614
50) Conker-30997
51) Pikachu–30962
52) Sam Fisher–30866
53) Duke Nukem–28995
54) Isaac-26560
55) Ness-24627
56) Ratchet–24099
57) Ryo Hazuki-21316
58) Raziel–19838
59) Raiden–17480
60) Tom Nook-14631
61) CATS–14168
62) Captain Olimar–11678
63) Mr. Resetti-11400
64) AiAi-8802
---
"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back
From: cyko | Posted: 8/28/2003 2:23:51 PM | Message Detail
up to End of Round 3:

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in brackets)

1) Link 91.35% vs. AiAi 8.65% - (82.70%)
2) Mega Man 88.96% vs. Mr. Resetti 11.04% - (77.92%)
3) Mario 88.42% vs. Captain Olimar 11.58% - (76.84%)
4) Cloud Strife 86.91% vs. CATS 13.09% - (73.82%)
5) Crono 85.81% vs. Tom Nook 14.19% - (71.62%)
6) Solid Snake 82.88% vs. Raiden 17.12% - (65.76%)
7) (ii) Sephiroth 82.67% vs. Max Payne 17.33 - (65.34%)
8) (ii) Link 82.46% vs. Fox McCloud 17.54% - (64.92%)
9) Sephiroth 82.00% vs. Raziel 18.00% - (64.00%)
10) (ii) Crono 78.92% vs. Kefka 21.08% - (57.84%)

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) Link 92998 vs. AiAi 8802 - (84196)
2) Mega Man 91905 vs. Mr. Resetti 11400 - (80505)
3) Cloud Strife 94086 vs. CATS 14168 - (79918)
4) Mario 89189 vs. Captain Olimar 11678 - (77511)
5) Crono 88469 vs. Tom Nook 14631 - (73838)
6) (ii) Sephiroth 89595 vs. Max Payne 18786 - (70709)
7) Sephiroth 90364 vs. Raziel 19838 - (70526)
8) Solid Snake 84638 vs. Raiden 17480 - (67158)
9) (ii) Link 81148 vs. Fox McCloud 17261 - (63887)
10) (ii) Crono 79999 vs. Kefka 21373 - (58626)

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Mario 50.05% vs. Crono 49.95% - (0.10%)
2) (ii) Magus 50.30% vs. Ganondorf 49.70% - (0.60%)
3) (ii) Tommy Vercetti 50.48% vs. Donkey Kong 49.52% - (0.96%)
4) Ganondorf 50.68% vs. Tidus 49.32% - (1.36%)
5) Kefka 50.95% vs. Pac-Man 49.05% - (1.90%)
6) (ii) Alucard 52.21% vs. Kirby 47.79% - (4.42%)
7) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog 52.34% vs. Zero 47.66% - (4.68%)
8) Master Chief 52.96% vs. Felix 47.04% - (5.92%)
9) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 53.02% vs. Aeris Gainsborough - (6.04%)
10) Max Payne 53.99% vs. Gordon Freeman 46.01% - (7.98%)

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Mario 66571 vs. Crono 66434 - (137)
2) (ii) Magus 55179 vs. Ganondorf 54529 - (650)
3) (ii) Tommy Vercetti 51425 vs. Donkey Kong 50457 - (968)
4) Ganondorf 58660 vs. Tidus 57078 - (1582)
5) Kefka 47678 vs. Pac-Man 45905 - (1773)
6) (ii) Alucard 53328 vs. Kirby 48818 - (4510)
7) (ii) Sonic thr Hedgehog 51903 vs. Zero 47261 - (4642)
8) Master Chief 56549 vs. Felix 50231 - (6318)
9) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 56701 vs. Aeris Gainsborough 50241 - (6460)
10) Max Payne 49281 vs. Gordon Freeman 41997 - (7284)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (iii) Mario vs. Crono - 133005
2) (ii) Squall Leonhart vs. Luigi - 116190
3) Ganondorf vs. Tidus - 115738
4) Zelda vs. Lara Croft - 113881
5) (ii) Samus Aran vs. KOS-MOS - 113194
6) (ii) Cloud Strife vs. Auron - 113186
7) (iii) Megaman vs. Tommy Vercetti - 113007
8) Zero vs. Scorpion - 112801
9) (iii) Samus Aran vs. Squall Leonheart - 112685
10) (iii) Sephiroth vs. Alucard - 111430

Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) Max Payne vs. Gordon Freeman - 91278
2) Magus vs. Sam Fisher - 91464
3) Yoshi vs. Conker - 92418
4) Kefka vs. Pac-Man - 93583
5) Luigi vs. Ratchet - 94649
6) (ii) Ryu vs. Dante - 94907
7) Dante vs. Ryo Hazuki - 95384
8) Squall Leonhart vs. Jill Valentine - 95666
9) Ryu vs. Duke Nukem - 96408
10) (ii) Solid Snake vs. Knuckles - 96684

---
"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back
From: cyko | Posted: 8/28/2003 2:24:26 PM | Message Detail

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) Cloud Strife - 94086
2) Link - 92998
3) Mega Man - 91905
4) Sephiroth - 90364
5) (ii) Sephiroth - 89595
6) Mario - 89189
7) Crono - 88469
8) Solid Snake - 84638
9) (ii) Cloud Strife- 81716
10) (ii) Link - 81148

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) AiAi - 8802
2) Mr. Resetti - 11400
3) Captain Olimar - 11678
4) CATS - 14168
5) Tom Nook - 14631
6) (ii) Fox McCloud - 17261
7) Raiden - 17480
8) (ii) Max Payne - 18786
9) Raziel - 19838
10) Ryo Hazuki - 21316

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) (iii)Crono - 66434
2) Tidus - 57078
3) (ii) Ganondorf - 54529
4) (ii) Donkey Kong - 50457
5) (iii) Aeris Gainsborough - 50241
6) Felix - 50231
7) (ii) Kirby - 48818
8) (ii) Shadow the Hedgehog - 48694
9) (ii) Zero - 47261
10) (iii) Squall Leonheart - 47103

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) Kefka - 47678
2) Max Payne - 49281
3) (ii) Ryu - 51258
4) (ii) Tommy Vercetti - 51425
5) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 51903
6) (ii) Alucard - 53328
7) (ii) Magus - 55179
8) (ii) Bowser - 55510
9) Knuckles the Echidna - 56363
10) Master Chief - 56549

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) Link 99.1% vs. AiAi 0.9%
2) Mario 98.0% vs. Captain Olimar 2.0%
3) Mega Man 95.6% vs. Mr. Resetti 4.4%
4) (ii) Link 95.4% vs. Fox McCloud
5) Cloud Strife 94.9% vs. CATS 5.1%
6) Sephiroth 93.9% vs. Raziel 6.1%
7) Samus Aran 93.8% vs. Isaac 6.2%
8) Crono 92.8% vs. Tom Nook 7.2%
9) Solid Snake 92.6% vs. Raiden 7.4%
10) Luigi 87.9% vs. Ratchet 12.1%

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) (ii) Magus 24.2% vs. Ganondorf
2) (iii) Megaman 31.1% vs. Tommy Vercetti
3) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 33.8% vs. Aeris Gainsborough
4) (ii) Ryu 37.5% vs. Dante
5) (ii) Squall Leonhart 38.1% vs. Luigi
6) (ii) Alucard 40.4% vs. Kirby
7) (ii) Bowser 40.7% vs. Yoshi
8) Shadow the Hedgehog 42.1% vs. Wario 57.9%
9) KOS-MOS 42.5% vs. Crash Bandicoot 57.5%
10) Kefka 43.5% vs. Pac-Man 56.5%
---
"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back
From: cyko | Posted: 8/28/2003 2:40:40 PM | Message Detail

cyko's Match 52 Review

(2) Sephiroth vs. (6) Alucard

what a shocker. Sephiroth blows away Alucard. the only real interesting thing to note here is that last year, Cloud beat Alucard with 69.6%. This year Sephiroth beat Alucard with 72.3%. hmmmmmmmmmmmmm............... logic then, says that Sephiroth (this year) > Cloud (last year). most of that is probably due to Kingdom Hearts. it's still hard to say who's currently more popular between Cloud and Sephiroth. both of them are crushing the competition this year. but if Sephiroth is doing better than Cloud last year, and Cloud lost to Mario by a mere 177 votes; then we have more fuel to add to the Sephiroth vs. Mario match.

*pours gasoline on the fanboys and looks for a match*


cyko's Match 53 Review

(1) Solid Snake vs. (5) Ryu

man, this round has got to get the award for worst all-time pictures. *shakes head* that Snake picture was awful. (not to mention Bowser, Samus, Alucard.....) Those 8-bit pictures ain't pretty. anywho, Snake had a heavy bracket advantage here to offset the mess of pixels representing him. but a 57.3% victory is slightly worse than Samus's 57.8% victory over Ryu last year. and (stay with me, here) Samus couldn't handle Sephiroth, who basically tied Megaman last year. that means that Snake will have to pull out all the stops to make it to the Final Four.
---
"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back
From: cyko | Posted: 8/28/2003 3:33:21 PM | Message Detail

cyko's Match 54 Review

(2) Megaman vs. (3) Tommy Vercetti

i want to know who around here seriously thought that Vercetti had a chance here? i said it before and i'll say it one more time: people play Grand Theft Auto to kill, destroy, steal, kill, blow things up, and kill. they don't pay attention to the characters in it, just how many they've killed. i am amused, though that Megaman had a tougher time with Zelda than Vercetti. i guess just being in the same games as Link really does help a character out; which reaffirms my faith in Megaman's power in this contest. he has already beaten the bracket voters, so ne still stands a very good chance against Snake.

in the meantime, Megaman has the distinction of being the only character to have beaten characters with rhyming names:

first Resetti and now Vercetti!


cyko's North Division Finals Review

(1) Link vs. (2) Samus Aran

another rather unexciting match compared to some from the last few rounds. Nintendo fans show who their number one loyalty lies with, along with about 25000 brackets. next, though, Link will face his toughest opponent yet: a leveled up Cloud Strife and legions of angry Square fans. we'll have to wait and see how much Cloud beats Sonic by to see what kind of chances Link has of being dethroned.

as for Samus, it's hard to say if she could beat Mario in a match. right now, with anti-Mario sentiment at its highest, Samus would almost surely win. but then again, Mario seems to always pull something out of his rear..............


cyko's East Division Finals Preview

(1) Cloud Strife vs. (2) Sonic the Hedgehog


here's to my perfect East Division!! the only divisionthat i predicted in my bracket and this topic perfectly.

Sonic needs 53000 votes to beat Crono's overall vote total. even with the extra match, he's not gonna do it. i find it rather ironic that Sonic is an Elite Eight character that will probably be ninth in overall votes. tell me how that makes sense. Cloud has plowed his way here with ease and Sonic will only be another speed-bump. Sonic barely beat Aeris. he has no chance against her more popular co-star. Sonic will do better than Cloud's previous opponents, but it won't be close. as for Cloud, he needs another big victory here to prove that he can stand up to Link.

prediction: Cloud with 63-67%

---
"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/28/2003 3:36:11 PM | Message Detail
Scorpion WAS in the Elite 8 last year, but #9 in total votes. Though you can mainly blame it on Megaman and his two 90%+ blowouts and his near-win in round 3.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 90/96, 0 lost . . . . T-19 (29-way)
Today's pick: Link over Samus
From: GunMage | Posted: 8/28/2003 3:59:14 PM | Message Detail
Just a response to Samberdog and Cyko. Mario's "clutch" ability has only been visible against Square's heavy hitters. Last year, he mowed down DK and got whacked by Link. When it's within the company, Mario may not have all of his fans behind him, and I think that might mean he would fall to Samus.

Pertaining to this year, only 30 more hours to go...
---
Bring on the upsets!
(Vs. Mode: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9727932)
From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/28/2003 4:36:30 PM | Message Detail
Yeah. Link killed Mario because the Nintendo vote was split, and most Square voters gravitated towards Link (probably because 1.) his games are more RPGish, 2.) he's not Mr. Nintendo 3.) He wasn't the favorite.

For Samus to win, she'd have to receive most of the non Nintendo fan votes, which I guess is possible, but I don't really think she has the crossover apeal that Link does.
---
...
From: creativename | Posted: 8/28/2003 5:22:14 PM | Message Detail
LOL, I just found out how to skip two lines without putting anything in either one!

HOW!? You must tell me!

and most Square voters gravitated towards Link (probably because 1.) his games are more RPGish, 2.) he's not Mr. Nintendo 3.) He wasn't the favorite.

I'd say it was simply because Link is just more popular. You don't need to rationalize it--Link is just more liked by gamers, by a very large amount, than Mario is. The RPG bias at this site probably doesn't even affect it that much; go to any games site (except Mario fan sites, obviously), run a Link vs. Mario poll, and Link will very likely win a good majority of the time. Just about every demographic or fan group subset I can think of would prefer Link to Mario, and trying to analyze why Link is more popular than Mario is like trying to analyze why Mega Man is more popular than Vercetti. You can analyze it, but the reasons are pretty transparent. He's just more well-liked by the greater amount of people.

---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!
From: creativename | Posted: 8/28/2003 5:39:39 PM | Message Detail
Last year, Cloud's ratio to Aeris' popularity was 1.46: Cloud was ranked at 36,639 votes against Link's 61,415, and Aeris was ranked at 25,095.

This year, Aeris was 88.6% of Sonic (50,241 vs. 56,701). Assuming that Cloud's relative popularity to Aeris is constant, that means that Cloud is 1.29 times Sonic--i.e., that Cloud will get 56.4% against Sonic. Of course, that's a pretty big assumption to make, and I consider this to be a liberal estimate of Cloud's performance against Sonic.

I think that both Cloud and Aeris' popularity has increased this year due to Kingdom Hearts, but I don't think Cloud's has moved up as much as Aeris, simply because he was already so popular. However, if Cloud does get 56.4%--or better--against Sonic, then that means big trouble for Mario. Because it would mean Sephiroth has probably improved as much as Aeris also.

And if Cloud does indeed get close to 60% against Sonic, like many are speculating, then Link is in trouble. Link had a ratio of 1.45 against Sonic last year, which means he would have gotten 59.2% of the vote against Sonic. If Cloud can come close to matching this amount then that means he could be as strong as Link was last year. However, I think that the estimates of Cloud approaching 60% are overly optimistic. I expect something on the order of Cloud winning with 55%. Though I'd love for it to be more.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/28/2003 5:46:09 PM | Message Detail
Three blanks spaces:
-------------------------------



-------------------------------

To do that post this:
-------------------------------
</b>
</b>
</b>
-------------------------------
---
I got the first vote in the Link vs Samus battle!
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Vote_1_Link.jpg
From: Enoch Camas | Posted: 8/28/2003 6:55:53 PM | Message Detail
::pops in for a quick question::

Since Samus is doing a little bit better than Mario did against Link last year, and Sephiroth beat Samus, does that mean he will have less difficulty against Mario?

I would assume yes, but Mario's pulled off some crazy wins, so I'm not so sure. What does everyone else think?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: 83/104
Vote Sonic!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/28/2003 8:57:21 PM | Message Detail
i dont think so. last year link beat seph by about the same margin as mario, so by that light they'd be fairly even, but last year doesnt mean squat in some cases. Personally I think Mario/Seph will be close, like Crono/Mario. The match was mainly a fan-base vs fan-base match and most people will vote for the same company as before. It'll be close.
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http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/MyAnime/index.php?categ=10&user=ChichiriMuyo
From: creativename | Posted: 8/28/2003 10:48:43 PM | Message Detail
JAW DROPS TO THE FLOOR

...<wipes drool from mouth>...

...er, gimme a minute to compose myself.

<puts eyes back in sockets>

WHOA.

Just, WHOA. 64.16%. 64.16%...64.16%.

<eyes pop out of sockets yet again>

Damn you eyes! Get back in there!

<cough> OK, I think I'm all right now. Maybe. Possibly. Though I am still in complete AWE of Cloud right now. 64.16%?! That is insane. Now there is no doubt in my mind that Cloud present a very clear and present danger to Link. Two weeks ago, I would've laughed at the thought of that.

In fact, if--as expected--Cloud's % rises during the day, he can even reach as high as 68%. A stratospheric number against an elite competitor--an elite competitor who he is making look like a complete JOKE. Last year, Sephiroth got 43.3% against Link, and 52.6% against Samus. Since last year, Samus=Sonic, well...even if this reasoning is incredibly flawed (which it has shown itself not to be), then Cloud will easily surpass that 43%.

Now, in keeping with the "linearly transitive" logic--and assuming Link is equally popular this year as he was last year--Cloud = approximately 1.8x Sonic. Now it actually appears as if Sonic's popularity may have decreased...but since there's no apparent reason for it, it couldn't have decreased that much. So the vast majority of Cloud's dominance very probably comes from Cloud himself. So let's decrease that to Cloud = 1.6x Sonic. A character who was 1.5x Sonic last year would have beaten Link with 52.4% of the vote.

While I have always discounted the "bracket voters" factor, I now think the Cloud vs. Link match will be close enough to be affected by that factor--and, in fact, I would say the match was close to 50/50 without that factor. I might even have to give Cloud the edge in the match without that factor.

I posted earlier how if Cloud got 60+% against Sonic, then according to the evidence we've seen so far he was pose a major threat to Link. I never thought he'd actually do it though. This is, to quote Papa Smurf, "Simply amazing!"

I must now concede this: Kingdom Hearts has PWNED this contest
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!
From: NT220 | Posted: 8/28/2003 11:04:57 PM | Message Detail
Well, both Cloud and Sonic are traditionally strong morning-vote characters, and the morning vote did favor Sonic in his match against Aeris, so I wouldn't say that Cloud's percentage will skyrocket as the day goes on. I think Link's victory is quite underrated, though - Samus has gained more popularity than any other character in the past year, save Squall. In fact, I would have been very much surprised if Cloud didn't equal Link's performance in this match.
---
"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin
From: creativename | Posted: 8/28/2003 11:10:01 PM | Message Detail
We have seen no evidence whatsoever, within the framework of the contest, that Samus has increased substantially in popularity.

In fact, judging by her performance against Link, it can be said that she is at almost the exact same popularity level as last year. Unless of course Link has gone up a lot as well, which--judging by the performance through Tidus/Ganon/Magus--is not the case.

Cloud's victory over Sonic (if anything close to these numbers hold) is more impressive than Link's over Samus.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!
From: Old Master Q | Posted: 8/28/2003 11:30:22 PM | Message Detail
*digressing off of stats/discussion topic*

IF Cloud beats Link, and Mario beats Sephiroth then Snake/Megaman....

I'll be well into the top 50 methinks XDXD
---
AND Mario lives another day!! Next up: Sephiroth!!
Sum2k3 score: 90/104 Next pick: Cloud
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