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Summer 2003 Contest

Stats & Discussion -- Summer 2003 Contest -- Mark III

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From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2003 4:35:29 PM | Message Detail

Whoops. I didn't realize the other topic was so close to filling up. We're now up to 1000 stats/discussion posts. Not bad. That certainly breaks last year's record. Thanks to everyone for continuing to make these topics a success. In particular, thanks to Jjukil, Samberdog, Slowflake, cyko, King Morgoth, Ringworm, creativename, steve illumina, Haste2, Team Rocket Elite, BigCow, Who Cares?, MMXcalibur, EvilNcr, NT220, red sox 777, bing ling, Yesmar, StopPokingMe, SlangEdter41, swirldude, Lyon, uncle5555, and all the rest (I know I missed quite a few - it doesn't mean I don't like ya, but you try thanking the whole board...). Please, continue with the excellent stats and analysis.

Some links:

This year's stats website: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com
Last year's stats website: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Last year's stats topic: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html
This year's first stats topic: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
This year's second stats topic will be archived soon.
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: BigCow | Posted: 8/25/2003 4:36:09 PM | Message Detail

attack of the clones-
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9705651

I've seen this topic before.
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From: BigCow | Posted: 8/25/2003 4:39:16 PM | Message Detail

back to back twin topics?
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From: cyko | Posted: 8/25/2003 4:44:42 PM | Message Detail

yeah, i posted a new topic for ya, Solarshadow. i didn't know when you'd be on next and i wanted to post the lists i had updated.

here's the one i posted:

http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9705651

lol.

i can just close it if you want me, too. =P

if not, though, there's the link.

---
"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back

From: cyko | Posted: 8/25/2003 4:48:48 PM | Message Detail

Solarshadow started this thread, so he deserves to carry it out a lot more than me, lol.

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in brackets)

1) Link 91.35% vs. AiAi 8.65% - (82.70%)
2) Mega Man 88.96% vs. Mr. Resetti 11.04% - (77.92%)
3) Mario 88.42% vs. Captain Olimar 11.58% - (76.84%)
4) Cloud Strife 86.91% vs. CATS 13.09% - (73.82%)
5) Crono 85.81% vs. Tom Nook 14.19% - (71.62%)
6) Solid Snake 82.88% vs. Raiden 17.12% - (65.76%)
7) (ii) Sephiroth 82.67% vs. Max Payne 17.33 - (65.34%)
8) (ii) Link 82.46% vs. Fox McCloud 17.54% - (64.92%)
9) Sephiroth 82.00% vs. Raziel 18.00% - (64.00%)
10) (ii) Crono 78.92% vs. Kefka 21.08% - (57.84%)

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) Link 92998 vs. AiAi 8802 - (84196)
2) Mega Man 91905 vs. Mr. Resetti 11400 - (80505)
3) Cloud Strife 94086 vs. CATS 14168 - (79918)
4) Mario 89189 vs. Captain Olimar 11678 - (77511)
5) Crono 88469 vs. Tom Nook 14631 - (73838)
6) (ii) Sephiroth 89595 vs. Max Payne 18786 - (70709)
7) Sephiroth 90364 vs. Raziel 19838 - (70526)
8) Solid Snake 84638 vs. Raiden 17480 - (67158)
9) (ii) Link 81148 vs. Fox McCloud 17261 - (63887)
10) (ii) Crono 79999 vs. Kefka 21373 - (58626)

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Mario 50.05% vs. Crono 49.95% - (0.10%)
2) (ii) Magus 50.30% vs. Ganondorf 49.70% - (0.60%)
3) (ii) Tommy Vercetti 50.48% vs. Donkey Kong 49.52% - (0.96%)
4) Ganondorf 50.68% vs. Tidus 49.32% - (1.36%)
5) Kefka 50.95% vs. Pac-Man 49.05% - (1.90%)
6) (ii) Alucard 52.21% vs. Kirby 47.79% - (4.42%)
7) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog 52.34% vs. Zero 47.66% - (4.68%)
8) Master Chief 52.96% vs. Felix 47.04% - (5.92%)
9) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 53.02% vs. Aeris Gainsborough - (6.04%)
10) Max Payne 53.99% vs. Gordon Freeman 46.01% - (7.98%)

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (iii) Mario 66571 vs. Crono 66434 - (137)
2) (ii) Magus 55179 vs. Ganondorf 54529 - (650)
3) (ii) Tommy Vercetti 51425 vs. Donkey Kong 50457 - (968)
4) Ganondorf 58660 vs. Tidus 57078 - (1582)
5) Kefka 47678 vs. Pac-Man 45905 - (1773)
6) (ii) Alucard 53328 vs. Kirby 48818 - (4510)
7) (ii) Sonic thr Hedgehog 51903 vs. Zero 47261 - (4642)
8) Master Chief 56549 vs. Felix 50231 - (6318)
9) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 56701 vs. Aeris Gainsborough 50241 - (6460)
10) Max Payne 49281 vs. Gordon Freeman 41997 - (7284)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (iii) Mario vs. Crono - 133005
2) (ii) Squall Leonhart vs. Luigi - 116190
3) Ganondorf vs. Tidus - 115738
4) Zelda vs. Lara Croft - 113881
5) (ii) Samus Aran vs. KOS-MOS - 113194
6) (ii) Cloud Strife vs. Auron - 113186
7) Zero vs. Scorpion - 112801
8) (iii) Samus Aran vs. Squall Leonheart - 112685
9) (iii) Cloud Strife vs. Bowser - 111372
10) (iii) Link vs. Magus - 110935

Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) Max Payne vs. Gordon Freeman - 91278
2) Magus vs. Sam Fisher - 91464
3) Yoshi vs. Conker - 92418
4) Kefka vs. Pac-Man - 93583
5) Luigi vs. Ratchet - 94649
6) (ii) Ryu vs. Dante - 94907
7) Dante vs. Ryo Hazuki - 95384
8) Squall Leonhart vs. Jill Valentine - 95666
9) Ryu vs. Duke Nukem - 96408
10) (ii) Solid Snake vs. Knuckles - 96684

---
"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back

From: cyko | Posted: 8/25/2003 4:49:51 PM | Message Detail

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) Cloud Strife - 94086
2) Link - 92998
3) Mega Man - 91905
4) Sephiroth - 90364
5) (ii) Sephiroth - 89595
6) Mario - 89189
7) Crono - 88469
8) Solid Snake - 84638
9) (ii) Cloud Strife- 81716
10) (ii) Link - 81148

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) AiAi - 8802
2) Mr. Resetti - 11400
3) Captain Olimar - 11678
4) CATS - 14168
5) Tom Nook - 14631
6) (ii) Fox McCloud - 17261
7) Raiden - 17480
8) (ii) Max Payne - 18786
9) Raziel - 19838
10) Ryo Hazuki - 21316

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) (iii)Crono - 66434
2) Tidus - 57078
3) (ii) Ganondorf - 54529
4) (ii) Donkey Kong - 50457
5) (iii) Aeris Gainsborough - 50241
6) Felix - 50231
7) (ii) Kirby - 48818
8) (ii) Shadow the Hedgehog - 48694
9) (ii) Zero - 47261
10) (iii) Squall Leonheart - 47103

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) Kefka - 47678
2) Max Payne - 49281
3) (ii) Ryu - 51258
4) (ii) Tommy Vercetti - 51425
5) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 51903
6) (ii) Alucard - 53328
7) (ii) Magus - 55179
8) (ii) Bowser - 55510
9) Knuckles the Echidna - 56363
10) Master Chief - 56549

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) Link 99.1% vs. AiAi 0.9%
2) Mario 98.0% vs. Captain Olimar 2.0%
3) Mega Man 95.6% vs. Mr. Resetti 4.4%
4) (ii) Link 95.4% vs. Fox McCloud
5) Cloud Strife 94.9% vs. CATS 5.1%
6) Sephiroth 93.9% vs. Raziel 6.1%
7) Samus Aran 93.8% vs. Isaac 6.2%
8) Crono 92.8% vs. Tom Nook 7.2%
9) Solid Snake 92.6% vs. Raiden 7.4%
10) Luigi 87.9% vs. Ratchet 12.1%

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) (ii) Magus 24.2% vs. Ganondorf
2) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog 33.8% vs. Aeris Gainsborough
3) (ii) Ryu 37.5% vs. Dante
4) (ii) Squall Leonhart 38.1% vs. Luigi
5) (ii) Alucard 40.4% vs. Kirby
6) (ii) Bowser 40.7% vs. Yoshi
7) Shadow the Hedgehog 42.1% vs. Wario 57.9%
8) KOS-MOS 42.5% vs. Crash Bandicoot 57.5%
9) Kefka 43.5% vs. Pac-Man 56.5%
10) (ii) Aeris Gainsborough 45.9% vs. Master Chief

---
"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back

From: cyko | Posted: 8/25/2003 4:51:57 PM | Message Detail

If I may say something... I do NOT want these four points. Even if they put me back in the running.

*applauds Slowflake*

this might be the third time you've read this, but.................. *shrugs*

Match 53 Review

(1) Mario vs. (4) Crono

well, **** me. last night, i went to bed around 10:00 gft with Crono ahead by around 800 votes. he had slowly but surely been increasing his lead since noon. being a Mario fan, i was a little sad, but i actually fell asleep thinking about what i would say here about Crono's upset. in the morning before work, i checked the contests results to see how many people picked this match right. i passed the results of the current match and went to the results page and saw............. 65.42% were right? wtf? i thought only 60% had Crono even making it to Mario. confused, i clicked on the match results..............

0_o

w00t!?!?

Mario wins by 137?!?!?!!

how the living **** did that happen!?!!! i checked the boards and saw the chaos that ensued after i went to bed. and even though i am a Mario fan and have never understood Crono's popularity, this win seemed wrong. it wasn't satisfying like his victory over Crono last year. i, too, have to agree that Mario's win this time seemed even more questionable than last year. a poll that was open for just about 24 and a half hours is one thing, but the 256 vote gain during the last update was very suspicious. neither character had a gain even half of that the entire rest of the day (except for the update before the last update, where Mario jumped up 146). 55% for Mario during that last hour was considerably higher than the rest of the day and even the start of the match. accusations of cheating for both sides are flying all over the place. some users have even been bold enough to accuse CJayC himself of cheating for Mario, seeing how he could pull Crono's votes away from his comeback last year, but look the other way when Mario makes an even more suspicious comeback this year.

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"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back

From: cyko | Posted: 8/25/2003 4:52:14 PM | Message Detail

here is my honest opinion of how Mario won and i'm serious. i see two realistic possibilites:

1) some Mario cheater (or cheaters) found a way in the closing hours to cheat that CJayC couldn't trace. he deleted those votes from Crono last year because they were easy to spot and he had solid proof. even if you know both sides are cheating, you can't really delete any votes if you don't know which side had more cheaters or have any proof of where they came from.

2) a big Crono cheater (or cheaters) thought that they had given Crono a big enough lead that Mario could not comeback from and decided to go to bed. with the constant vote-stuffing for Crono slowed to a minimum, Mario's legitimate voters (or possibly legitimate voters and cheaters) were able to comeback.

i am dead serious about those two theories being the only realistic possibilities. i find it very difficult to believe that more people would have waited to vote during the last thirty minutes of the match than during any half-hour period the rest of the day (excluding the first hour or two of course). it doesn't make any sense.

as for the possibility of CJayC using his power on this site to influence the outcome of this match......... i suppose it's possible. anything's possible; especially on the internet. but, i have never met CJayC or know him personally (and i seriously doubt i ever will), so i can't really say how much of a Nintendo fanboy he is or if he would try to influence a match.

but seriously, why would CJayC cheat in his own tournament? what would he have to gain? he is already the owner and operator of one of the most popular video games websites in the world, and has many site users that respect him and some that practically worship him. if you think about it, there is no logical reason why he would try to influence any matches. keeping the poll open almost a half hour longer than usual seems questionable, but i guess i can accept that he was checking for obvious cheaters, and it doesn't say anywhere that each poll has to be exactly 24 hours or start or end exactly at midnight. remember the Samus vs. Sonic match? that match was two or three hours short, not because of CJayC's intervention to make Samus win, but because a glitch in the system wouldn't close the Link vs. Jill poll automatically, it had to be changed manually. so things do happen. but man..............it happened at a really bad time for Crono. seriously, though, i really don't see CJayC actively changing the results of these matches to what he wants to happen.

but, if Mario pulls out an unprecedented fourth questionable win over Square against Sephiroth......................... *shakes head*.............. i fear for this board. not a straight, legitimate win, mind you (which is a definite possibility), but another finish as questionable as this one. cheaters, please do not defile Mario's legendary name anymore.
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"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/25/2003 5:12:53 PM | Message Detail

Tag!

It looks like Sephiroth is (probably) just a scooch more popular than Cloud, as predicted.

BTW, I've decided to stick around, but probably just not as much. No more bigass reviews unless I feel particularly inspired.
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...

From: helpusobi 1 | Posted: 8/25/2003 6:48:07 PM | Message Detail

Thanks solarshadow and friends for all the hard work.

I don't suppose you could keep the full Mario vs Crono match on your site? It might be interesting to see that match again next year and compare the stats.

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YYZ

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2003 7:46:31 PM | Message Detail

I don't suppose you could keep the full Mario vs Crono match on your site? It might be interesting to see that match again next year and compare the stats.

Can do. Might also be interesting for those that missed it this year. It's up now:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/pollupdates.html
(Graphs to follow.)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 8/25/2003 7:47:32 PM | Message Detail

Well....my bracket's down the crapper....

so........it's all Mega Man from here on out!

MEGA MAN! YOU CAN DO IT!
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MEGA MAN RD. 3: vs Tommy Vercetti
(1)Solid Snake vs (5)Ryu

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 8/25/2003 7:47:48 PM | Message Detail

BTW, great job solar.
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MEGA MAN RD. 3: vs Tommy Vercetti
(1)Solid Snake vs (5)Ryu

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2003 7:50:43 PM | Message Detail

Yeah, my bracket's toast as well. It hurts to lose it like that too. I still had a decent chance at some prize money.
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:00:03 PM | Message Detail

doesn anyone have a link for the midnight screenshot of the mario crono match just as mario was winning?
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http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/MyAnime/index.php?categ=10&user=ChichiriMuyo

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:00:53 PM | Message Detail

Oh, if anyone else has any of the previous matches' updates saved, I'd like to see those too.
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:04:10 PM | Message Detail

somebody has to have some, because ive seen them before... for a few scattered matches of course
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http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/MyAnime/index.php?categ=10&user=ChichiriMuyo

From: Old Master Q | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:12:07 PM | Message Detail

bookmark
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AND Mario lives another day!! Next up: Sephiroth!!
Sum2k3 score: 70/84 Next pick: Sephiroth

From: torey luvullo | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:16:37 PM | Message Detail

responding to cyko.

remember mayor richard daley of chicago in the 1960 nixon/kennedy presidential election. illinois was they key state - whoever won it would win the election. the republicans downstate were ready to submit their cheating vote totals, and so was daley. but he made them blink first. then he just submitted the amount needed to make kennedy win.

nixon was PWNED!

i am not saying there was cheating in this match at all. i couldn't say that, because i have no proof. but if we assume there was cheating on both sides, as many here [even cjay] seem to, then the lesson of mayor daley should be taken to heart:

In a battle of cheaters, he who cheats last cheats best

From: steve illumina | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:21:49 PM | Message Detail

Round 3 Analysis: Snake vs Ryu

My Bracket Pick: Snake over Ryu: Prediction: Snake by 59.80

As expected by everyone including Castlevania fanboys (do they exist?), FF7 badboy Sephiroth slew Alucard nicely in a blowout which brings back memories of Cloud doing the same thing to Bowser a few days ago. Now we are on to the final two matches of an unforgettable Round 3. The first being a little hyped match between the King of Fighters, Ryu, and the cigarette smokin' cardboard box movin' Solid Snake.

Solid 'Liquid or Gas' Snake is credited along with his games: Metal Gear Solid, Substance, Twin Snakes, VR Missions, etc, with creating the modern stealth genre. A genre which found its roots on the great NES, with 'the truck have started to move' of cult classic Metal Gear 1. Despite all this success of the last 6 years, some gamers do not know who he is, even with his #1 seed. Others dont really care. This fact showed with Sonic wannabe Knuckles gathering a decent percentage, and it will show itself even more with one of the most recognizable faces in gaming overall, Ryu.

Ryu, the true Street Fighter Legend, the man who lives for the path not the goal, has a tough path here to vanquish the semi-popular Snake. Ryu, like ALucard, is a solid middle of the road contender, but he is still a few notches higher than the son of the vampire is.

Should prove to be a close vote, with Snake winning sparingly. My guess could even prove to be too high, for Ryu with the help of fighting gameheads, Capcom loyalists (some eager for an all capcom showdown in the Elite 8 between the company's biggest names Ryu and Megaman), peeps not into Snake or his genre at all, retro and old schoolers, all kinds of places overall, could make it a 55-45 match. Ryu will not be embarrassed like Alucard just was.

Snake will draw votes from varied sources too, from bracket protectors to fans of his games to Konami Klans eager to avenge Alucard. Pics will be interesting for this match too, but again, wont help anyone too much. Basically, Snake will win this 'last of the semi-boring' matchups of this year's contest, for Mega Man and Vercetti is next...and then the Elite 8 Quarterfinals Round begins!

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Trivia 9 Team: CheeseStrikesBack! Score: 65/88 'Go Seph!'
"I will be reborn with the Planet" -Sephiroth, FF7

From: BigCow | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:39:41 PM | Message Detail

Up to Alucard, 7290 people picked a losing character to win the competition.

That's 17.75% of everyone.

Vercetti will likely be the next to go, and greatly increase that figure.

Random stat:

North Division picks to win: 20662, but that's mostly Link
50.32%

East Division picks to win: 5736
13.97%

South Division picks to win: 8146
19.84%

West Division picks to win: 6516
15.87%

North is loaded, simply by virtue of having 43% of the picks with Link. South is slightly overstocked, East actually has the fewest hopes riding on it, and West has a fair share... although a couple thousand of those picks belong to vercetti, and most of the rest go to Snake.

---
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From: BigCow | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:41:01 PM | Message Detail

Prediction upsets, based upon picks to win:

1. Fox (25) > Pika (40)
2. Ganon (52) > Tidus (97)
3. Bowser (31) > Ness (117)
4. Max(30) > Gordon (120)
5. Knuckles (36) > Yuna (95)
6. DK (29) > Vyse (80)
7. Bowser(31) > Yoshi(75)
8. Aeris(160) > Master Chief(1488)
9. Ryu(93) > Dante (384)

That makes 9 out of 54

Seeding upsets:

1. Fox (9) vs Pikachu (8)
2. Ganondorf (12) vs Tidus (5)
3. Magus (13) vs Sam (4)
4. Aeris (11) vs Sora (6)
5. Shadow (9) vs Wario (8)
6. Kefka (12) vs PacMan (5)
7. Max (10) vs Gordon (7)
8. Zelda (10) vs Lara (7)
9. Magus (13) vs Ganondorf (12)
10. Squall (6) vs Luigi (3)
11. Bowser (5) vs Yoshi (4)
12. Aeris (11) vs Master Chief (3)
13. Alucard (6) vs Kirby (3)
14. Ryu(5) vs Dante (4)

That makes 14 out of 54

Max score at the end of today: 88

Score at the end of today if you went by seeding:

68

Score at the end of today if you went by picks to win (unknown at start):

76

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From: BigCow | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:41:45 PM | Message Detail

Total Zelda predictions to win (Link/Zelda/Ganondorf): 17813 or 43.38%

Total Final Fantasy VII predictions to win (Cloud/Sephiroth/Aeris): 5907 or 14.38%

Total Mario Predictions to win
(Mario/Luigi/Wario/Bowser/Yoshi/Donkey Kong): 3203 or 7.80%

Total MGS Predictions to win (Snake/Raiden): 2399 or 5.84%

Total Chrono Trigger Predictions to win (Crono/Magus): 934 or 2.27%

Total MegaMan predictions to win (Zero/MegaMan): 835 or 2.03%

Total Sonic Predictions to win (Sonic/Shadow/Knuckles/Tails): 667 or 1.62%

Total Street Fighter predictions to win (Ken/Ryu): 116 or .29%

Total Animal Crossing predictions to win (Nook/Resetti): 55 or .13%

Total Final Fantasy Predictions to win: (Cloud/Sephiroth/Aeris/Squall/Tidus/Yuna/Auron/Ramza/Kefka):6871 or 16.73%

-------------

(note: Kos-mos is considered Namco and Conker is considered Rare)

Total Nintendo Predictions to win (Mario/Luigi/Wario/Bowser/Yoshi/Donkey Kong/Zelda/Link/Ganondorf/Fox/Ness/Kirby/Pikachu/Samus/Captain Olimar/Nook/Resetti): 23097 or 56.25%

Total SquareSoft Predictions to win (Cloud/Sephiroth/Aeris/Squall/Tidus/Yuna/Auron/Ramza/Kefka/Crono/Magus/Sora): 7909 or 19.26%

Total Konami Predictions to win(Alucard/Snake/Raiden): 2637 or 6.42%

Total Capcom Predictions to win(Ken/Ryu/Jill/Dante/Megaman/Zero): 1386 or 3.38%

Total Sega Predictions to win (Sonic/Knuckles/Shadow/Tails/Ryo/AiAi): 723 or 1.76%

Total 3d Realms predictions to win (Duke Nukem/Max Payne): 71 or .17%

Everybody but those guys: 5236 or 12.75%

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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/25/2003 8:45:40 PM | Message Detail

well, at leas ti have more points than if i went by seeding
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http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/MyAnime/index.php?categ=10&user=ChichiriMuyo

From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/25/2003 9:21:38 PM | Message Detail

I don't think Mario's comeback has to do with cheating...

I just think the Crono fans were lazy assuming he would win and Mario fans just kept on getting over people to come over to the site and vote Mario...I mean, they did it like mad. I hope those Square fans learned a valuable lesson...

I'm very disappointed that Crono lost, and one would think that I would want Sephiroth to avenge Crono's loss...however, I want Mario to win this time. Why? Because Mario's the underdog when he's against Sephy, duh! ;P Besides, I'd rather see Mario vs. Mega Man than Sephiroth vs. Mega Man.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/25/2003 10:14:46 PM | Message Detail

tag

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/25/2003 10:15:35 PM | Message Detail

Hmm, looks like I'm in the minority for having Mario's win actually benefit me.

*tagging post; thank GOD for that Search function*
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/25/2003 10:52:58 PM | Message Detail

Well, I will say this much. Mario had better have his ****s screwed on very, very tight when Sephiroth comes rolling around, because Sephiroth will have the full support of every angle imaginable.
---
"Yes, yes, yes… the black wind howls…wails…blows…does a somersault... whatever." -MMXcalibur, Boards Hunted: 461

From: creativename | Posted: 8/25/2003 11:05:04 PM | Message Detail

I'm going to post a breakdown of Mario vs. Crono, by update, below. This should take 3 posts. The columns are time (Central), Mario votes that update, Crono votes that update, total votes, Mario's % that update, and Crono's % that update. "Net" means net votes for Crono. A positive number means Crono gained, a negative number means Mario gained.

First 33 updates

23:40 | Mario | 0032 | Crono | 0038 | Total | 0070 | Mario % | 45.71% | Crono % | 54.29% | Net | 6
23:50 | Mario | 0933 | Crono | 0806 | Total | 1739 | Mario % | 53.65% | Crono % | 46.35% | Net | -127
00:00 | Mario | 0414 | Crono | 0420 | Total | 0834 | Mario % | 49.64% | Crono % | 50.36% | Net | 6
00:15 | Mario | 1383 | Crono | 1418 | Total | 2801 | Mario % | 49.38% | Crono % | 50.62% | Net | 35
00:30 | Mario | 1092 | Crono | 1222 | Total | 2314 | Mario % | 47.19% | Crono % | 52.81% | Net | 130
00:45 | Mario | 1011 | Crono | 1092 | Total | 2103 | Mario % | 48.07% | Crono % | 51.93% | Net | 81
01:00 | Mario | 0946 | Crono | 0992 | Total | 1938 | Mario % | 48.81% | Crono % | 51.19% | Net | 46
01:15 | Mario | 0799 | Crono | 0927 | Total | 1726 | Mario % | 46.29% | Crono % | 53.71% | Net | 128
01:30 | Mario | 0745 | Crono | 0744 | Total | 1489 | Mario % | 50.03% | Crono % | 49.97% | Net | -1
01:45 | Mario | 0602 | Crono | 0671 | Total | 1273 | Mario % | 47.29% | Crono % | 52.71% | Net | 69
02:00 | Mario | 0508 | Crono | 0603 | Total | 1111 | Mario % | 45.72% | Crono % | 54.28% | Net | 95
02:15 | Mario | 0546 | Crono | 0556 | Total | 1102 | Mario % | 49.55% | Crono % | 50.45% | Net | 10
02:30 | Mario | 0490 | Crono | 0513 | Total | 1003 | Mario % | 48.85% | Crono % | 51.15% | Net | 23
02:45 | Mario | 0458 | Crono | 0491 | Total | 0949 | Mario % | 48.26% | Crono % | 51.74% | Net | 33
03:00 | Mario | 0389 | Crono | 0438 | Total | 0827 | Mario % | 47.04% | Crono % | 52.96% | Net | 49
03:15 | Mario | 0395 | Crono | 0369 | Total | 0764 | Mario % | 51.70% | Crono % | 48.30% | Net | -26
03:30 | Mario | 0344 | Crono | 0383 | Total | 0727 | Mario % | 47.32% | Crono % | 52.68% | Net | 39
03:45 | Mario | 0315 | Crono | 0371 | Total | 0686 | Mario % | 45.92% | Crono % | 54.08% | Net | 56
04:00 | Mario | 0323 | Crono | 0323 | Total | 0646 | Mario % | 50.00% | Crono % | 50.00% | Net | 0
04:15 | Mario | 0332 | Crono | 0366 | Total | 0698 | Mario % | 47.56% | Crono % | 52.44% | Net | 34
04:30 [N/A]
04:45 | Mario | 0593 | Crono | 0623 | Total | 1216 | Mario % | 48.77% | Crono % | 51.23% | Net | 30
05:00 | Mario | 0342 | Crono | 0298 | Total | 0640 | Mario % | 53.44% | Crono % | 46.56% | Net | -44
05:15 | Mario | 0205 | Crono | 0282 | Total | 0487 | Mario % | 42.09% | Crono % | 57.91% | Net | 77
05:30 | Mario | 0296 | Crono | 0262 | Total | 0558 | Mario % | 53.05% | Crono % | 46.95% | Net | -34
05:45 | Mario | 0268 | Crono | 0305 | Total | 0573 | Mario % | 46.77% | Crono % | 53.23% | Net | 37
06:00 | Mario | 0289 | Crono | 0246 | Total | 0535 | Mario % | 54.02% | Crono % | 45.98% | Net | -43
06:15 | Mario | 0301 | Crono | 0300 | Total | 0601 | Mario % | 50.08% | Crono % | 49.92% | Net | -1
06:30 | Mario | 0298 | Crono | 0262 | Total | 0560 | Mario % | 53.21% | Crono % | 46.79% | Net | -36
06:45 | Mario | 0314 | Crono | 0329 | Total | 0643 | Mario % | 48.83% | Crono % | 51.17% | Net | 15
07:00 | Mario | 0360 | Crono | 0303 | Total | 0663 | Mario % | 54.30% | Crono % | 45.70% | Net | -57
07:15 | Mario | 0419 | Crono | 0329 | Total | 0748 | Mario % | 56.02% | Crono % | 43.98% | Net | -90
07:30 | Mario | 0429 | Crono | 0393 | Total | 0822 | Mario % | 52.19% | Crono % | 47.81% | Net | -36

From: creativename | Posted: 8/25/2003 11:05:24 PM | Message Detail

Second 33 updates

07:45 | Mario | 0484 | Crono | 0415 | Total | 0899 | Mario % | 53.84% | Crono % | 46.16% | Net | -69
08:00 | Mario | 0470 | Crono | 0467 | Total | 0937 | Mario % | 50.16% | Crono % | 49.84% | Net | -3
08:15 | Mario | 0603 | Crono | 0577 | Total | 1180 | Mario % | 51.10% | Crono % | 48.90% | Net | -26
08:30 | Mario | 0611 | Crono | 0585 | Total | 1196 | Mario % | 51.09% | Crono % | 48.91% | Net | -26
08:45 | Mario | 0655 | Crono | 0590 | Total | 1245 | Mario % | 52.61% | Crono % | 47.39% | Net | -65
09:00 | Mario | 0709 | Crono | 0654 | Total | 1363 | Mario % | 52.02% | Crono % | 47.98% | Net | -55
09:15 | Mario | 0843 | Crono | 0708 | Total | 1551 | Mario % | 54.35% | Crono % | 45.65% | Net | -135
09:30 | Mario | 0838 | Crono | 0714 | Total | 1552 | Mario % | 53.99% | Crono % | 46.01% | Net | -124
09:45 | Mario | 0949 | Crono | 0845 | Total | 1794 | Mario % | 52.90% | Crono % | 47.10% | Net | -104
10:00 | Mario | 0927 | Crono | 0908 | Total | 1835 | Mario % | 50.52% | Crono % | 49.48% | Net | -19
10:15 | Mario | 0921 | Crono | 0854 | Total | 1775 | Mario % | 51.89% | Crono % | 48.11% | Net | -67
10:30 | Mario | 0874 | Crono | 0914 | Total | 1788 | Mario % | 48.88% | Crono % | 51.12% | Net | 40
10:45 | Mario | 0970 | Crono | 0930 | Total | 1900 | Mario % | 51.05% | Crono % | 48.95% | Net | -40
11:00 | Mario | 0927 | Crono | 0964 | Total | 1891 | Mario % | 49.02% | Crono % | 50.98% | Net | 37
11:15 | Mario | 0968 | Crono | 0964 | Total | 1932 | Mario % | 50.10% | Crono % | 49.90% | Net | -4
11:30 | Mario | 0893 | Crono | 0943 | Total | 1836 | Mario % | 48.64% | Crono % | 51.36% | Net | 50
11:45 | Mario | 0948 | Crono | 0966 | Total | 1914 | Mario % | 49.53% | Crono % | 50.47% | Net | 18
12:00 | Mario | 0988 | Crono | 0950 | Total | 1938 | Mario % | 50.98% | Crono % | 49.02% | Net | -38
12:15 | Mario | 0939 | Crono | 1013 | Total | 1952 | Mario % | 48.10% | Crono % | 51.90% | Net | 74
12:30 | Mario | 1009 | Crono | 1151 | Total | 2160 | Mario % | 46.71% | Crono % | 53.29% | Net | 142
12:45 | Mario | 0902 | Crono | 1042 | Total | 1944 | Mario % | 46.40% | Crono % | 53.60% | Net | 140
13:00 | Mario | 0978 | Crono | 0965 | Total | 1943 | Mario % | 50.33% | Crono % | 49.67% | Net | -13
13:15 | Mario | 0957 | Crono | 0947 | Total | 1904 | Mario % | 50.26% | Crono % | 49.74% | Net | -10
13:30 | Mario | 0937 | Crono | 0951 | Total | 1888 | Mario % | 49.63% | Crono % | 50.37% | Net | 14
13:45 | Mario | 0855 | Crono | 0901 | Total | 1756 | Mario % | 48.69% | Crono % | 51.31% | Net | 46
14:00 | Mario | 0867 | Crono | 0907 | Total | 1774 | Mario % | 48.87% | Crono % | 51.13% | Net | 40
14:15 | Mario | 0912 | Crono | 0913 | Total | 1825 | Mario % | 49.97% | Crono % | 50.03% | Net | 1
14:30 | Mario | 0883 | Crono | 0896 | Total | 1779 | Mario % | 49.63% | Crono % | 50.37% | Net | 13
14:45 | Mario | 0862 | Crono | 0890 | Total | 1752 | Mario % | 49.20% | Crono % | 50.80% | Net | 28
15:00 | Mario | 0821 | Crono | 0838 | Total | 1659 | Mario % | 49.49% | Crono % | 50.51% | Net | 17
15:15 | Mario | 0879 | Crono | 0853 | Total | 1732 | Mario % | 50.75% | Crono % | 49.25% | Net | -26
15:30 | Mario | 0841 | Crono | 0859 | Total | 1700 | Mario % | 49.47% | Crono % | 50.53% | Net | 18
15:45 | Mario | 0780 | Crono | 0779 | Total | 1559 | Mario % | 50.03% | Crono % | 49.97% | Net | -1

From: creativename | Posted: 8/25/2003 11:06:33 PM | Message Detail

Final 33 updates

16:00 | Mario | 0748 | Crono | 0770 | Total | 1518 | Mario % | 49.28% | Crono % | 50.72% | Net | 22
16:15 | Mario | 0739 | Crono | 0828 | Total | 1567 | Mario % | 47.16% | Crono % | 52.84% | Net | 89
16:30 | Mario | 0766 | Crono | 0775 | Total | 1541 | Mario % | 49.71% | Crono % | 50.29% | Net | 9
16:45 | Mario | 0790 | Crono | 0767 | Total | 1557 | Mario % | 50.74% | Crono % | 49.26% | Net | -23
17:00 | Mario | 0746 | Crono | 0762 | Total | 1508 | Mario % | 49.47% | Crono % | 50.53% | Net | 16
17:15 | Mario | 0717 | Crono | 0730 | Total | 1447 | Mario % | 49.55% | Crono % | 50.45% | Net | 13
17:30 | Mario | 0672 | Crono | 0728 | Total | 1400 | Mario % | 48.00% | Crono % | 52.00% | Net | 56
17:45 | Mario | 0711 | Crono | 0665 | Total | 1376 | Mario % | 51.67% | Crono % | 48.33% | Net | -46
18:00 | Mario | 0652 | Crono | 0731 | Total | 1383 | Mario % | 47.14% | Crono % | 52.86% | Net | 79
18:15 | Mario | 0637 | Crono | 0718 | Total | 1355 | Mario % | 47.01% | Crono % | 52.99% | Net | 81
18:30 | Mario | 0617 | Crono | 0637 | Total | 1254 | Mario % | 49.20% | Crono % | 50.80% | Net | 20
18:45 | Mario | 0614 | Crono | 0645 | Total | 1259 | Mario % | 48.77% | Crono % | 51.23% | Net | 31
19:00 | Mario | 0588 | Crono | 0616 | Total | 1204 | Mario % | 48.84% | Crono % | 51.16% | Net | 28
19:15 | Mario | 0633 | Crono | 0671 | Total | 1304 | Mario % | 48.54% | Crono % | 51.46% | Net | 38
19:30 | Mario | 0609 | Crono | 0643 | Total | 1252 | Mario % | 48.64% | Crono % | 51.36% | Net | 34
19:45 | Mario | 0693 | Crono | 0642 | Total | 1335 | Mario % | 51.91% | Crono % | 48.09% | Net | -51
20:00 | Mario | 0665 | Crono | 0652 | Total | 1317 | Mario % | 50.49% | Crono % | 49.51% | Net | -13
20:15 | Mario | 0670 | Crono | 0705 | Total | 1375 | Mario % | 48.73% | Crono % | 51.27% | Net | 35
20:30 | Mario | 0668 | Crono | 0692 | Total | 1360 | Mario % | 49.12% | Crono % | 50.88% | Net | 24
20:45 | Mario | 0654 | Crono | 0641 | Total | 1295 | Mario % | 50.50% | Crono % | 49.50% | Net | -13
21:00 | Mario | 0600 | Crono | 0624 | Total | 1224 | Mario % | 49.02% | Crono % | 50.98% | Net | 24
21:15 | Mario | 0581 | Crono | 0589 | Total | 1170 | Mario % | 49.66% | Crono % | 50.34% | Net | 8
21:30 | Mario | 0567 | Crono | 0571 | Total | 1138 | Mario % | 49.82% | Crono % | 50.18% | Net | 4
21:45 | Mario | 0597 | Crono | 0549 | Total | 1146 | Mario % | 52.09% | Crono % | 47.91% | Net | -48
22:00 | Mario | 0541 | Crono | 0556 | Total | 1097 | Mario % | 49.32% | Crono % | 50.68% | Net | 15
22:15 | Mario | 0615 | Crono | 0589 | Total | 1204 | Mario % | 51.08% | Crono % | 48.92% | Net | -26
22:30 | Mario | 0622 | Crono | 0534 | Total | 1156 | Mario % | 53.81% | Crono % | 46.19% | Net | -88
22:45 | Mario | 0637 | Crono | 0533 | Total | 1170 | Mario % | 54.44% | Crono % | 45.56% | Net | -104
23:00 | Mario | 0630 | Crono | 0570 | Total | 1200 | Mario % | 52.50% | Crono % | 47.50% | Net | -60
23:15 | Mario | 0673 | Crono | 0543 | Total | 1216 | Mario % | 55.35% | Crono % | 44.65% | Net | -130
23:30 | Mario | 0708 | Crono | 0622 | Total | 1330 | Mario % | 53.23% | Crono % | 46.77% | Net | -86
23:45 | Mario | 0742 | Crono | 0598 | Total | 1340 | Mario % | 55.37% | Crono % | 44.63% | Net | -144
00:00 | Mario | 0993 | Crono | 0750 | Total | 1743 | Mario % | 56.97% | Crono % | 43.03% | Net | -243

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 8/25/2003 11:21:29 PM | Message Detail

From now on...I want the matches I want.

Yeah, I had a TINY hope for my bracket...but now...eh...
I wanted to get Top 50 at least...for two matches. guess Mario blew that out of the water, eh?

---MMX'S BEST MATCHES IN THE NORTH/EAST BATTLE IN THE FINAL FOUR---
(1)Link vs (1)Cloud Strife
(2)Samus Aran vs (2)Sonic the Hedgehog

Anyways, I HAD Samus Aran and Sonic in the Final Four facing off....and I don't want that to change. I still want to see that match again. No matter how unimaginable it may seem as both Link and Cloud would have to go down.
Although Link vs Cloud isn't without it's charms. No other combos, only 1 vs 1 or 2 vs 2. That's it.

---MMX'S BEST MATCHES IN THE SOUTH/WEST BATTLE IN THE FINAL FOUR---
(2)Sephiroth vs (2)Mega Man
(1)Mario vs (2)Mega Man

Sephiroth should have the South in the bag given the tussle from the Mario/Crono duel. As to be expected by most, that rematch would be the downfall of either Mario or Crono against Sephiroth. Sephiroth should shower in the "anti-" votes and take in a Southern division championship. Ironic that he is in the SAME place that Link was a year ago....and look at what happened too Link? Hehehe.....
As for the West, Snake has won...and c'mon....Mega Man is the other Western finalist. Don't give me lip on Vercetti. He's nothing now. The West should be tilted in Mega Man's favor now due to Ryu's nice lil' match here against Snake. Mega Man needs to annihilate Vercetti to look good entering the Final Four.
As for the matches, Sephiroth vs Mega Man....please...need I go on. I want this MATCH SOOOOOOOOO bad. I want Mega Man to take back what is rightfully his! I want REVENGE!!!!! ARGH!
Mario has a slim chance of getting out of the South alive...but hey, it's Mario and he's gotten out of more tight spots than any other character. Should he suprise, Mario vs Mega Man will be a nice match between gaming icons. Although, I'm still rootin' for a Sephy/Mega Man Final Four match.

---MMX'S DREAM FINAL FOUR---
North/East- (2)Samus Aran vs (2)Sonic the Hedgehog
South/West- (2)Sephiroth vs (2)Mega Man

All 2 seeds. Who said being second isn't all that great? :)

</rant/opinion/I'm tired/g'night>

---
MEGA MAN RD. 3: vs Tommy Vercetti
(1)Solid Snake vs (5)Ryu

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/25/2003 11:25:28 PM | Message Detail

The Final Four will be Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Megaman, just like many projected it to be. Face it. Sonic is not as strong as people made him out to be.
---
"Yes, yes, yes… the black wind howls…wails…blows…does a somersault... whatever." -MMXcalibur, Boards Hunted: 461

From: creativename | Posted: 8/25/2003 11:32:40 PM | Message Detail

(wow, that's the first I have ever had a "Flooding" error...I'd never even heard of that until yesterday)

Here's a breakdown of how many anomalous updates (I'll refer to them as "segments") each character had:

Vote % greater than 52%
Mario: 22
Crono: 15

Vote % greater than 53%
Mario: 16
Crono: 7

Vote % greater than 54%
Mario: 8
Crono: 3

Vote % greater than 55%
Mario: 4
Crono: 1

There is actually very little evidence here of consistent cheating in favor of Crono. He doesn't have very many anomalous segments. He does, though, have the most anomalous segment--a whopping 57.9% at the 5:15am mark. It seems clear that something was going on here. However, this is actually the segment (excluding the first update) with the least total votes of any segment--and of course, statistical flukes are much more likely with small sample sizes. Still, such a spike seems unlikely (though, it should be noted, not nearly as unlikely as Mario's spikes which came with much higher sample sizes). The low vote total makes cheating (if any occurred) more obvious, but any such cheating this segment had minimal impact. It is also interesting (and disconcerting) to note that Crono's second best update was only 54.29%. Mario actually had 7 updates more anomalous than that one.

6 of the last 7 updates had vote percentages of greater than 53% in favor of Mario (the 11:00pm one was at 52.5%). 4 of Mario's 5 best segments (%-wise) occur in the last 6 updates, including of course his best segment of 56.97% in the very last update.

And the most amazing thing I found? Over the last seven updates, Mario received 54.67% of the votes--5005 vs. 4150. Mario's last seven updates together are more anomalous than Crono's 2nd most anomalous update.

Crono fans (and fans of contest integrity) should be very disturbed by this data. It is highly damning of the "fair result" hypothesis. There's nothing to much to debate here--the data is highly one-sided in terms of this being a most unfair result.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/26/2003 5:46:09 AM | Message Detail

*tracking post*

Yep... the only thing that would disprove this would be smaller, but consistent vote-stuffing in Crono's favor.

Yesterday, before logging out, I saw a post talking about how that male vs. female poll could have given Crono votes too. I didn't have time to put a tracking post there, so I wonder what was said.

My bracket rests entirely on Sephiroth now... he better win his next two matches. The rest are pretty much no-brainers to me, though Snake worries me a little. (When will I make the top 50 list, anyway?)

Anyway, I'll go gather a few more stats for you people, and I'll post them on Thursday.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 82/88, 0 lost . . . . T-29 (33-way)
Today's pick: Snake over Ryu

From: Mild Guy | Posted: 8/26/2003 7:54:33 AM | Message Detail

Tag. Ryu and Snake are pretty similar. The first game for both was not their most successful. But one of their later games defined a genre. Both of those sprites are from their less successful games.
---
"The Many Men, So Beautiful And They All Dead Did Lie, And A Thousand Thousand Slimy Things Lived On And So Did I."

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/26/2003 8:30:06 AM | Message Detail

West Semifinal #1 Review

No one's paying attention to this match either...

Well, looks like Snake's beating Ryu like Samus did last year, so Snake will have a very hard time taking out Megaman. So little to say here, since there's absolutely NO SURPRISE here. Next!

West Semifinal #2 Preview

In the pre-poll period, this match got insane hype, with the major wildcard taking on last year's big surprise. Now, the fuuny thing is... it almost didn't happen. In June and for most of July, Vercetti fanboys were rampant on the board, saying to everyone that would listen to them that Vercetti would win it all. Then Kite came and gave these fanboys an icy shower. Some shut up, but others kept on dreaming. Then there was the match against DK, where Tommy V lost the lead numerous times before barely edging out the ape. And some people STILL believe Vercetti will win. "Megaman should've KILLED Zelda!" Hahaha... poor fanboys.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 82/88, 0 lost . . . . T-29 (33-way)
Today's pick: Snake over Ryu

From: BigCow | Posted: 8/26/2003 10:06:31 AM | Message Detail

Up to Ryu, 7383 people picked a losing character to win the competition.

That's 17.98% of everyone.

86% of all characters gone... and still 82% of all brackets have their winner alive. Another couple thousand should have their hopes dashed when Vercetti bites it though. The elite eight will be where the brackets finally start crumbling.

Surviving contestants, with picks to win:

Link 17571
Sephiroth 3265
Mario 2953
Cloud 2482
Snake 2378
Vercetti 2260
Samus 1688
Mega Man 599
Sonic 480

The elite 8 should have all one and two seeds. (disgusting, I know) Also, it will have the top 8 picks to win... when you take out Vercetti/MegaMan and Crono, as well as the overseeded Master Chief.

So it looks like the elite eight was pretty predictable from the start. Although Vercetti's higher total in picks to win suggests a win, his seeding suggests a close match, and his performance suggests a loss.

If Link wins, Sonic wins, Sephiroth wins, and Megaman wins, we'll have four major game companies represented-Nintendo, Sega, Square, and Capcom. That said... Cloud will likely beat Sonic, based on the performance against Aeris, and Sephiroth vs Mario is still a hard one to call.
---
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9554541
Archive: http://members.aol.com/gcbfiles/ffproj.html

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/26/2003 12:34:31 PM | Message Detail

Snake vs Ryu Review
Looks like after all of the speculation about whether Snake was stronger or rather Samus (and maybe Sonic) was weaker than last year, it turns out that Snake isn't much better than Samus.

It's looking like it'll finish around 57% in Snake's favor, about the same percentage Samus finished in her bout against Ryu last year. And as a huge fighting game fan, I can honestly say Ryu hasn't gained significant popularity. Sure, there's the newly released SNK vs Capcom Chaos in the arcades now, but this game is more for the diehard fighting gamers & really isn't going to suck in the mainstreamers like Marvel vs Capcom 2 did.

So this match & only beating Knuckles by 2% more in their rematch suggests that he's about as good as he was last year, & I doubt that's good enough to top the Blue Bomber in the next round.

Vercetti vs Mega Man Preview
I won't spend too much on this. Mega Man will win this one. But I will say don't be surprised if it's closer than expected. Remember that 2260 people picked Vercetti to win the whole thing as opposed to MM's 599. In IMO, we've already seen two matches where 'bracket-voters' may have made two strong favorites look rather weak [Aeris/Master Chief & Mega Man/Zelda] If this one actually ends up in the 55/45 range, then I'm not sure we can discount the 'bracket-voters' influnce.

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/26/2003 12:34:34 PM | Message Detail

Solarshadow, I noticed you were missing the 4:30 update for the Crono/Mario battle. Coincidently, it was the last update I saved before I went to sleep:
4:30
Mario 48.62% 12354
Crono 51.38% 13053
TOTAL VOTES 25407

I have save the match updates for some of the previous matches here:
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Updates/
I'll see if I have any others.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/26/2003 7:14:50 PM | Message Detail

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/26/2003 7:58:12 PM | Message Detail

Solarshadow, I noticed you were missing the 4:30 update for the Crono/Mario battle. Coincidently, it was the last update I saved before I went to sleep

Ah, good. Thanks, TRE. I was going to take the updates immediately before and after that one and average them to fill in the missing data, but I would have been over by 2 Crono votes - and we can't have that. :) And thanks for the link. I'll be sure to pour over those in due time. ;)

Crono fans (and fans of contest integrity) should be very disturbed by this data. It is highly damning of the "fair result" hypothesis. There's nothing to much to debate here--the data is highly one-sided in terms of this being a most unfair result.

That is a little disturbing. The thing that surprised me the most was the way in which the votes rocketed up in the final few updates. Here's the number of votes for the last 11 updates (10 regular ones plus the final): 1146, 1097, 1204, 1156, 1170, 1200, 1216, 1330, 1340, 1743, 565. Note that the final update was only about 5 minutes long. Let's convert that to votes per minute: 76.40, 73.13, 80.27, 77.07, 78.00, 80.00, 81.07, 88.67, 89.33, 116.20, ~113.00. While I won't say it's impossible for the votes/min to legitimately jump 10% for two updates and then a further 30% in the final updates, it does stick out as being an extreme aberration. Maybe it's not unusual for the V/M to increase near the end of a poll, but the graphs I have from last year show just the opposite:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/distribution.jpg
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/summercontest/final3.gif

Just an observation.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/26/2003 8:06:43 PM | Message Detail

I also have some vpm graphs:
http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/LinkvsAiai/LinkvsAiaivotes.jpg
http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/MagusvsSam/MagusvsSamvotes.jpg

However the Mario vs Crono match is unique. It was much closer then any of the other matches and had a very high voter turnout. The massive recruitment of voters is likely to throw off results. After all it did generate over 130,000 votes on a weekend match.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: steve illumina | Posted: 8/26/2003 8:28:58 PM | Message Detail

Round 3 Analysis: Vercetti vs Mega Man

Bracket: Mega Man over DK: Prediction: Mega Man by 64.40

The end of Round 3 will spell the end of either of these two combatants: One hit megawonder Tommy 'Gunn' Vercetti or the Blue 'Dont call me Blur!' Bomber Mega Man.

Tommy Boy, a #3 seed, plants his hopes entirely here on his loyal band of fanboys, hoping they will draw enough votes to get by a true legend of gaming. Will this happen? Nope, not today, tomorrow, or next Tuesday. As solarshadow said so well, the pathetic performances of Tommy V spell certain doom tomorrow for the Hawaiian shirt clad badboy. And he thought Kite and DK were tough...

Mega Man has been revealed in the eyes of many to be a '2nd tier elite' character thanks to late bloomer Zelda pulling near 40%. He can silence this talk if he dominates Tommy V by more than 75%. However this will not happen. Too many fanboys and all things Sony peeps out there will keep this from being an embarrassment the likes of Alucard and Bowser felt. The result should end up to be like his last match with the Princess of Hyrule, but a little better margin is doable, perhaps because he will draw some hardcore Nintendite votes he did not get before because he is facing a Sony star whose company snubbed the Cube, not a Nintendo sweetie pie like before. Plus the classic two-toned blue sprite will stir latent memories in the minds of the casuals...

So in essence this once overly hyped match will end up being fairly routine, with MM taking it with ease. How much will he take it by, is the real question...

Then the real battle shall commence, between all of the #1 and #2 seeds. The Elite Eight, the legends of gaming, the icons of the industry, genre creaters and genre enhancers. Some nearly timeless, others fairly new. All worthy of being where they are for 1 reason or another...
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Trivia 9 Team: CheeseStrikesBack! Score: 69/92 'Go Snake!'
"Uniforms? Aren't they cute lil' sailor suits?" -Big Boss

From: chaos knight | Posted: 8/27/2003 1:27:32 AM | Message Detail

Wow, Tommy V is really getting smoked this round...

*tag*
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Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS

From: cyko | Posted: 8/27/2003 4:42:04 AM | Message Detail

FFM posted this somewhere else; i found it very interesting, so i moved it here so more people could see it. i wanted to figure out the average totals and overall totals, but he beat me to it.

FFM's list up to Solid Snake vs. Ryu:

From: FinalFantasymaster2 | Posted: 8/26/2003 12:05:01 PM | Message Detail

Ranking) Character-Vote #- Last years rank

1) Sephiroth- 260498-3
2) Cloud-253793- 5
3) Link-2460645- 1
4) Crono-234902- 4
5) Samus-225653- 8
6) Mario-215516- 2
7) Snake-207186- 6
8) Sonic-182088- 10
9) Aeris-180573- 11
10) Squall-174453- 38
11) Ryu-164586- 18
12) Bowser-163055- N/A
13) Mega Man-157433- 7
14) Magus-154524- N/A
15) Alucard-149570- 15
16) Zero-118146- N/A
17) Dante-117717- 22
18) Tommy Vercetti-117243- N/A
------------------------------
19) Luigi-116782- N/A
20) Shadow-116580- N/A
21) Zelda-113270- N/A
22) Ganondorf-113189- N/A
23) Donkey Kong-111484- 17
24) Kirby-106680- 33
25) Yoshi-104442- N/A
26) Auron-101669- N/A
27) Master Chief-99710- N/A
28) KOS-MOS-95387- N/A
29) Knuckles-92009- 16
30) Fox-85049- 49
31) Kefka-69051- N/A
32) Max-68067- 24
33) Tidus – 57078- 25
34) Felix – 50231- N/A
35) Pac-Man – 45905- 12
36) Yuna – 45531- N/A
37) Lara Croft – 42940- 13
38) Ramza Beoulve – 42482- N/A
39) Gordon Freeman - 41997- 42
40) Scorpion - 41916- 9
41) Miles "Tails" Prower - 38685- 34
42) Jill Valentine – 38274- 14
43) Crash Bandicoot - 37510- 29
44) Vyse - 36743- N/A
45) Wario – 36721- N/A
46) Bomberman – 36033- 19
47) Kite - 35068- N/A
48) Ken - 33146- 43
49) Sora - 32614- N/A
50) Conker - 30997- N/A
51) Pikachu – 30962- 31
52) Sam Fisher – 30866- N/A
53) Duke Nukem – 28995- 26
54) Isaac - 26560- N/A
55) Ness - 24627- N/A
56) Ratchet – 24099- N/A
57) Ryo Hazuki - 21316- 21
58) Raziel – 19838- 36
59) Raiden – 17480- N/A
60) Tom Nook - 14631- N/A
61) CATS – 14168- 61
62) Captain Olimar – 11678- N/A
63) Mr. Resetti - 11400- N/A
64) AiAi - 8802- N/A

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"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back

From: cyko | Posted: 8/27/2003 4:45:12 AM | Message Detail

FFM's list up to Snake vs. Ryu:

AVERAGE
1) Sepiroth-86863
2) Cloud-84597
3) Link-82015
4) Mega Man-78717
5) Crono-78301
6) Samus-75218
7) Mario-71839
8) Snake-69062
9) Sonic-60696
10) Aeris-60191
11) Zero-59073
12) Dante-58859
13) Tommy Vercetti-58622
14) Luigi-58391
15) Shadow-58290
16) Squall-58151
17) Tidus – 57078
18) Zelda-56635
19) Ganondorf-56495
20) Donkey Kong-55742
21) Ryu-54862
22) Bowser-54352
23) Kirby-53340
24) Yoshi-52221
25) Magus-51508
26) Auron-50385
27) Felix–50231
28) Master Chief-49885
29) Alucard-49857
30) KOS-MOS-47684
31) Knuckles-46005
32) Pac-Man–45905
33) Yuna–45531
34) Lara Croft-42940
35) Fox-42524
36) Ramza Beoulve-42482
37) Gordon Freeman-41997
38) Scorpion-41916
39) Miles "Tails" Prower-38685
40) Jill Valentine–38274
41) Crash Bandicoot-37510
42) Vyse-36743
43) Wario–36721
44) Bomberman–36033
45) Kite-35068
46) Kefka-34526
47) Max-34034
48) Ken-33146
49) Sora-32614
50) Conker-30997
51) Pikachu–30962
52) Sam Fisher–30866
53) Duke Nukem–28995
54) Isaac-26560
55) Ness-24627
56) Ratchet–24099
57) Ryo Hazuki-21316
58) Raziel–19838
59) Raiden–17480
60) Tom Nook-14631
61) CATS–14168
62) Captain Olimar–11678
63) Mr. Resetti-11400
64) AiAi-8802

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"We're not doing this for money............ we're doing this for a ****load of money!"- Lonestar
Trivia 9 - Cheese Strikes Back

From: durron597 | Posted: 8/27/2003 5:31:41 AM | Message Detail

Oh wow... I didn't think the 4:30 Mario/Crono update happened... it wasn't posted in Diamond Soul X's thread while I was asleep.

By the way, guys, I still have the script (written in C) that automatically pulled from the website to get all the stats and stuff generated automatically. I'm not going to be able to do updates like I did for Mario/Crono, but if anyone has access to a Unix machine (it only runs on Unix) and knows a little C, I'll give it to you so you can use it for the later rounds of the contest.

P.S. creativename... I tried to email it to you already but your email address wasn't working... I got "mail undeliverable" messages for everything I sent you.
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Want more stats? Check out solarshadow's awesome stats site at:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/27/2003 9:08:05 AM | Message Detail

Yikes. Snake did so much better against Squall and Aeris than Samus and Sonic did, I was sure we was a step above them, but now he has just about the same score versus Ryu that Samus did. The pic is definitely to blame partly, but it's still a little backwards.

MEEP! As far as Squall is concerned, it's because he's more popular than last year. Aeris? I have no idea. Maybe Kingdom Hearts too, or maybe the general increase in FF performances so far.

On another subject... Megaman disappoints me AGAIN. I'm not so sure he can get past Snake anymore...
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 86/92, 0 lost . . . . T-29 (31-way)
Today's pick: Megaman over Vercetti

From: BigCow | Posted: 8/27/2003 9:23:04 AM | Message Detail

Final Round Three Stat:

Up to Vercetti, 9643 people picked a losing character to win the competition.

That's 23.49% of everyone.

Vercetti was the 6th highest pick to win, and now he's history. It looks like the final eight is all one and two seeds. Tragic.

Seven out of eight, or 87.75% of all characters gone, but still 77.6% of all brackets have their winner in the contest. Next round, we'll see the heavyweights start dropping like flies however.

Surviving characters, with picks to win:

Link 17571
Sephiroth 3265
Mario 2953
Cloud 2482
Snake 2378
Samus 1688
Mega Man 599
Sonic 480

Prediction upsets, based upon picks to win:

1. Fox (25) > Pika (40)
2. Ganon (52) > Tidus (97)
3. Bowser (31) > Ness (117)
4. Max(30) > Gordon (120)
5. Knuckles (36) > Yuna (95)
6. DK (29) > Vyse (80)
7. Bowser(31) > Yoshi(75)
8. Aeris(160) > Master Chief(1488)
9. Ryu(93) > Dante (384)

That makes 9 out of 56.

Seeding upsets:

1. Fox (9) vs Pikachu (8)
2. Ganondorf (12) vs Tidus (5)
3. Magus (13) vs Sam (4)
4. Aeris (11) vs Sora (6)
5. Shadow (9) vs Wario (8)
6. Kefka (12) vs PacMan (5)
7. Max (10) vs Gordon (7)
8. Zelda (10) vs Lara (7)
9. Magus (13) vs Ganondorf (12)
10. Squall (6) vs Luigi (3)
11. Bowser (5) vs Yoshi (4)
12. Aeris (11) vs Master Chief (3)
13. Alucard (6) vs Kirby (3)
14. Ryu(5) vs Dante (4)

That makes 14 out of 56

Max score at the end of today/third round: 96

Score at the end of the day if you went by seeding: 76

Score at the end of the day if you went by picks to win (unknown at start): 84, possibly enough to get you on tomorrow's leader board.

Upsets in prediction percentage:

(round 1)
Squall beating Jill-47.72%
Kos-mos beating Crash Bandicoot-42.45%
Zero beating Scorpion-47.28%
Shadow beating Wario-42.11%
Kefka beating Pac-man-43.47%

(round 2)
Magus beating Ganondorf-24.25%
Squall beating Luigi-38.1%
Bowser beating Yoshi-40.65%
Aeris beating Master Chief-45.89%
Alucard beating Kirby-40.4%
Ryu beating Dante-37.54%

(round 3)
Sonic beating Aeris-33.76%

MegaMan vs Vercetti will be a likely upset in percentage, since only 52% picked the blue bomber to win last time. On that assumption:

Score if you went with the majority each time: 75, much more likely 71.

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Gamefaqs Fanfic Project: http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9554541
Archive: http://members.aol.com/gcbfiles/ffproj.html

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