| Stats & Discussion - Summer
2003 Contest |
| | | Page 9 of 10 | | |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/2/2003 1:03:57 PM | Message
Detail |
Okay, the stats website is updated. Contest
averages will be added shortly (once I have a chance to calculate
them).
My god, this is my 57th post on this topic. My
active messages will take a nosedive when this is
purged...
Heh. What did I get up to last year? 149 or
something? When that topic hit 500 I lost all of my active
messages. :)
---
Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: HydraCores
| Posted: 8/2/2003 1:09:48 PM | Message
Detail |
Um... Haste2? Did I c Kirby vs. Jill on your
lists? I might just be getting blind....
---
The World will
end in Fire, Ice, or Thunder. Depends on which one of my heads
manages to eliminate the others.... |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/2/2003 1:16:43 PM | Message
Detail |
Hey solar, I hope it's okay I linked to you
from my site.
Naturally. I think I'll link yours in
return.
Keep up the good
work!
Thanks!
---
Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: cyko
| Posted: 8/2/2003 1:33:33 PM | Message
Detail |
cyko's Match 34 Preview
(12) Ganondorf
vs. (13) Magus
we've been looking forward to this match
for a month now, and it has been one of the most debated matches of
Round 2. on the one hand, you have Ganondorf, the villain from the
Legend of Zelda. a lot of fans of the series will support him,
especially with the hope of forcing a Link vs. Ganondorf match. with
Link supporters on his side, how can he lose, right? well, not
necassarily. while the Zelda series draws a lot of votes, Ganondorf
doesn't have a whole lot of personal support. most people view him
as "the bad guy that Link fights", instead of as "Ganondorf the
Almighty Gerudo King".
Magus not only has fans of his game
(Chrono Trigger) behind him, but he has his own fans that love him.
if you don't believe me, just look at the Official Magus RPG Party,
which has near 150 members on this board. Magus also has the Square
backing, which contains some of the most hardcore fans out there.
Magus's only real weakness is that a lot of casual voters probably
haven't even heard of him, let alone know who he is. but, he will
make up for that with his much more impressive picture. Akira
Toriyama's art can draw in the votes.
the general consensus
seems to be: "well, Ganondorf just barely beat Tidus and Magus is
way more popular than Tidus; therefore Magus will win." on the
boards, yes, Magus is far more popular than whiny Tidus, but the
boards aren't always right. on the boards, Kefka was supposed to be
a serious threat to Crono and maybe even Mario and Sephiroth. but
instead, he barely beat Pac-Man. being an old character means not
everyone knows who you are, which will cost you votes. i'm trying to
be as objective as possible, but even with being an older character,
i also think that Magus has to be more popular than
Tidus.
but there is one small stat that does worry me about
Magus's potential victory. take a look at the results of every
Square vs. Nintendo match:
Summer2K2-
Cloud- 54643
vs. Fox McCloud- 18599
Aya Brea- 30478 vs. Donkey Kong-
31798
Cloud- 59926 vs. Pikachu- 15445
Cloud- 64713
vs. Mario- 64990
Sephiroth- 51177 vs. Samus-
46047
Crono- 53716 vs. Mario- 53831
Sephiroth- 44597
vs. Link- 58273
Summer2K3-
Tidus- 57078 vs.
Ganondorf- 58660
Crono- 88469 vs. Tom Nook-
14631
Ramza- 42482 vs. Kirby- 57862
Nintendo has
won six out of the ten Nintendo vs. Square, but three of their four
losses were pushovers (Fox, Pikachu, and Tom Nook) in fact, the only
half-way decent Nintendo character Square has beaten was Samus. and
in all four really close matches (winners getting 51% or less),
Nintendo has come out ahead. Nintendo followers are just as bad as
Square fanboys. i mention these stats because the next two matches
are both Nintendo vs. Square (and Luigi is looking like the favorite
over Squall on monday). will Magus be able to break the trend, maybe
even keep it from being a nailbiter? with his loyal following and
picture advantage, i believe that Magus will pull it out. but it
will be close; not as close as Tidus vs. Ganondorf, but still close.
prediction: Magus with 51-55%
---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3
characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth
and Mr. Resetti |
| From: Yesmar
| Posted: 8/2/2003 1:47:32 PM | Message
Detail |
So far I have 28 points (Thanks to Squall,
Shadow, Kefka, and Knuckles.) I still think that Kefka wasn't
overestimated as much as Pac-Man was underestimated.
And to
talk about Ganondorf Vs. Magus:
As much as I want Ganondorf
to win (for more than one reason) he will fall to Magus, although
the fight will be close.
And shameless self promotion for my
web
site:
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Pic_History.htm
---
The
wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind
Waker |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/2/2003 2:21:34 PM | Message
Detail |
Match #28 - Dante VS Ryo Hazuki -
Review
Dante - 74068 / 77.65%
Ryo Hazuki - 21316 /
22.35%
Total - 95384 (23rd highest)
Prediction
Percentage - 83.5% (19th hardest)
My Pick - Dante
Analysis
Topic Pick - Dante
"Odds" Pick - Dante
Brackets Ruined -
43
I knew Dante would win, but I didn't think the margin of
victory would be this large. Ryo's pretty useless, but he managed to
beat Guybrush last year, so he must have some support. Though many
thought Dante would be less popular than last year because of DMC2,
it looks like the opposite has occurred. Ryu VS Dante just got a lot
closer, but it's hardly time to declare an upset yet. Like Snowflake
said, Dante's popularity is most likely quite fleeting. Most voters
should lean towards Capcom's other hero in round two. Whoever
does win, it's safe to say that they won't be going any further.
Neither Dante or Ryu have showed they have what it takes to beat
Snake.
More to come... I'll get caught up
eventually!
I have 28 points right now (Jill, Scorpion,
Wario, and Yuna)which is better than the 25 points I had at the end
of last year's first round.
"Scorpion did worse against
Link than STRIDER last year"
Had this been brought to my
attention before the contest started, I might have saved myself a
point. XP I liked your winners/losers column, and I agree with most
of it. I don't think Ganondorf is a loser though, taking down Titus
is something to be proud of. I think his match with Magus will be
close.
"Off-topic: My brother rented Wind Waker today, and
it looks awesome. No kidding."
WW is an amazing game. I
didn't like it as much as OoT, but its ending sequence is the most
beautiful thing I've seen in a videogame ever. And if you play it
I'm sure you'll walk away liking Ganondorf
more.
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character
Battle II"
Current Record: 28-4 / 28 points won / 4 points
lost / Tied at #1094 |
| From: Slowflake
| Posted: 8/2/2003 3:43:42 PM | Message
Detail |
Match #33 Review
Do I really need
to write one? All I can say is that everything's going according to
plan, as far as a repeat is concerned. Of course, there's one big
stretch of top contenders awaiting, but Link will run into them with
full momentum.
Match #34 Preview
I'm going to
concentrate my efforts here instead. Both were disappointing in
round 1... Ganondorf barely took out Tidus, who's a hated figure
among some FF/Square fans. Therefore, that's some votes that will go
from Ganondorf to Magus... we'd need only 800 for the tie, and I bet
there's much more than that. However, there will also people that
voted Tidus that will vote Ganondorf this time around. Much less,
though, because Ganondorf has less haters inside of his own
fanbase.
Magus, on his side, defeated Sam Fisher, the star of
Splinter Cell, a multiplatform game that's big enough... and he
doesn't have Freeman Flu. Can he compare to Dante, seeing how
similar the results were to Crono vs. Dante? In my view, yes. Crono
missing the finals by 115 votes last year shows how much more
popular he is than Tidus, who lost 60-40 to Sonic last year, which
is in every way worse than a virtual tie with Mario. And if Magus is
on par with THAT, there's no way out for Ganondorf.
Now,
there's a factor that will probably not come into play, but if it
does, it will be devastating for Ganondorf. It goes like this:
outside forces can and will attempt to push the vote for their
favorite. Now, why could it kill Ganondorf, but not Magus?
Ganondorf isn't as big in the Nintendo world as Magus is in
Square's. To put it bluntly, for the Nintendites, this match will be
meaningless, unless they have Ganondorf beating Link in their
brackets, while on Square's side, Magus is one of... nay, their best
hope of bringing Link down, so they'll want to protect him until the
big clash. As I said, this will probably not happen, but if it
does... expect outside interference to be for Magus.
Last
thought: Aeon Azuran will fall tomorrow if Ganondorf wins... he has
Magus winning the whole tournament. (And I think another perfect has
ALUCARD winning it all.)
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake
(CAN) . . . . . 30/32, 0 lost . . . . . T-68
(284-way)
Today's pick: Link over Fox |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/2/2003 3:53:37 PM | Message
Detail |
The Contest Averages section has been updated
with the first round averages. Phew. Here they
are:
Average Number of Votes Received By The Winning
Character
North Division - 68790 / 68.60%
East
Division - 70748 / 68.04%
South Division - 69510 / 68.52%
West
Division - 71522 / 70.59%
Round Average - 70142 /
68.94%
Average Number of Votes Received By The
Losing Character
North Division - 31769 / 31.40%
East
Division - 33298 / 31.96%
South Division - 31161 / 31.48%
West
Division - 29934 / 29.41%
Round Average - 31540 /
31.06%
Average Number of Total Votes Per
Match
North Division - 100559
East Division -
104046
South Division - 100671
West Division -
101456
Round Average - 101683
Average Win
Margin
North Division - 37021 / 37.20%
East Division -
37450 / 36.07%
South Division - 38349 / 37.05%
West Division -
41588 / 41.17%
Round Average - 38602 /
37.87%
Average Number of Contest Entrants
Predicting Each Match Correctly (out of 41059 total entrants)
North Division - 28096 / 68.43%
East Division - 30168 /
73.47%
South Division - 29702 / 72.34%
West Division - 32203 /
78.43%
Round Average - 30042 /
73.17%
Average Number of Points Earned by Contest
Entrants (out of 8 possible points per division, 32 per round)
North Division - 5.47
East Division - 5.88
South
Division - 5.79
West Division - 6.27
Round Average -
23.41
I'll leave specific comparison to the 2002
averages up to someone else (at least for the moment), but it's
worth pointing out that while the vote counts are way up, the
overall percentages are very similar. The thing that surprised me
the most is that the average number of points earned by contestants
is actually a bit lower than last year (23.41 this year versus 23.74
last year). I would've thought that with all of last year's
knowledge and all of this year's advanced speculation we would've
collectively come out a little higher. I know for my part I have the
same score as last year, so maybe a lot hasn't changed. Let's hope
it gets better as the rounds wear on. :)
---
Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Slowflake
| Posted: 8/2/2003 3:54:57 PM | Message
Detail |
Hey! Can I do it for the total votes per
match?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . .
. 30/32, 0 lost . . . . . T-68 (284-way)
Today's pick: Link
over Fox |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/2/2003 3:58:33 PM | Message
Detail |
Go nuts. I think I need a nap.
;)
---
Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Slowflake
| Posted: 8/2/2003 5:10:08 PM | Message
Detail |
2002 vs. 2003 - Total vote counts for round
1
Overall
2002: 1928709
2003:
3253848
Variation: +068.71%
By
division
Div. 2002 . . 2003 . . . Variation
N .
464025 . 804469 . +073.37%
E . 492964 . 832368 . +068.85%
S .
473037 . 805365 . +070.25%
W. 498683 . 811646 .
+062.76%
By match
No. 2002 . . . 2003 . . .
Variation
01 . 053213 . 101800 . +091.31%
02 . 057359 .
098818 . +072.28%
03 . 056566 . 115738 . +104.61%
04 . 052618
. 091464 . +073.83%
05 . 061706 . 095666 . +055.04%
06 .
052874 . 094649 . +079.01%
07 . 056447 . 098651 . +074.77%
08
. 073242 . 107683 . +047.02%
09 . 064249 . 108254 .
+068.49%
10 . 055392 . 108884 . +096.57%
11 . 064189 . 098791
. +053.91%
12 . 058198 . 092418 . +058.80%
13 . 060878 .
097810 . +060.67%
14 . 056361 . 106780 . +089.46%
15 . 062021
. 112801 . +081.88%
16 . 071676 . 106630 . +048.77%
17 .
056989 . 100867 . +076.99%
18 . 053920 . 104607 . +094.00%
19
. 059609 . 093583 . +056.99%
20 . 050816 . 103100 .
+102.89%
21 . 052419 . 101384 . +093.41%
22 . 070376 . 100344
. +042.58%
23 . 058323 . 091278 . +056.50%
24 . 070585 .
110202 . +056.13%
25 . 064315 . 102118 . +058.78%
26 . 063121
. 101894 . +061.43%
27 . 062555 . 096408 . +054.12%
28 .
058014 . 095384 . +064.42%
29 . 068296 . 097770 . +043.16%
30
. 054997 . 100886 . +083.44%
31 . 069969 . 113881 .
+062.76%
32 . 057416 . 103305 . +079.92%
---
Summer 2003
Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 30/32, 0 lost . . . . . T-68
(284-way)
Today's pick: Link over Fox |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/2/2003 6:36:24 PM | Message
Detail |
As half-promised earlier, the Poll Stats are
back for the end of the first round!
Check 'em out
here:
http://members.aol.com/Jjukil/pollstat.html
You
can also go from there to the Full Lists, which take all that raw
data and make it interesting.
I'm pretty sure I'm going to
make these stats a first-round study only, though. It's hard to be
here at 11:00 sometimes, and the results probably won't change much
from here. I'll keep logging them until the end of the North
division, though, just in case anyone wants to pick up where I left
off. =)
----
So what conclusions can be drawn from
this study?
Mainly, a couple of things you already knew:
1)
The polls don't start at midnight.
2) Any poll that isn't close
is over in the first thirty minutes.
As the charts show, the
polls don't start at any specified time. I've heard before that
CJayC uses an automated script to update the polls, but if so, it
must have at least one random variable in it--there's a full hour's
difference between the earliest and latest start time, even without
the Sam/Magus glitch. (Gordon/Max started at 11:17;
Alucard/Bomberman started at 12:18.) So, basically, if you want to
be here for the start of the poll, come by at 11:00 and prepare
cruise the boards for a while. The average may be 11:45, but all of
four polls started even within five minutes of that....
The
differentials were actually a bit shocking to me, though. Not only
are the polls usually over in the first minute--the
percentages are decided in the first thirty. Fully 3/4 of the
polls' first-freeze tallies predicted the final results within a 5%
margin of error. Granted, there are exceptions, but they seem few
and far between; only one blowout was lost (Yoshi's), and only one
poll went from a solid win to a close race (Master Chief's). The
irregular tallies are, of course, a different story...but even
there, the highest difference logged outside of Cloud/CATS was
14.94%. Besides, those were the most irregular results
recorded; the other results are often much closer to the counts at
the first freeze.
Finally, one of the most interesting parts
of the Full Lists (to me, anyway) were the Votes Per Minute. It's
pretty similar to the normal Most Popular Polls lists, but there's a
few oddities here and there. The most notable being the first two
polls, of course. For the longest time, I thought Kirby/Ramza had
that locked thanks to a glitch--the server outage came at one of the
lightest voting times on the site. But Lara/Zelda actually overcame
that with a full 80 votes per minute. I'll say it again: what was
up with that poll...?
The other most notable one, I think,
was Sam/Magus. I'd known for a while it was a short poll, so I
expected it to climb the charts in VPM...but it's still sixth from
the last. Sad to see the new SNES icons getting such
disrespect....
----
Well, that's about it. I'll be
back later for comments on recent matches...but if you need a dose
of my biased poison now, I will say this:
Magus
will win. Or at least he'd damned well better.
-_-
There. That should be sufficient. ;) |
| From: Haste2
| Posted: 8/2/2003 9:18:37 PM | Message
Detail |
I have some interesting awards for Round 1
matches, for both this year and last year. An asterisk represents
any Round 1 battles in 2002.
1. Biggest Upset Strictly
by Seeding -
4) Sam Fisher vs. 13) Magus
3) Gordon
Freeman vs. 14) Tina Armstrong*
2. Biggest
Blowout in a "Bracket Upset" Match -
8) Wario vs. 9) Shadow
the Hedgehog - 64.9%
8) Spryo the Dragon vs. 9) Morrigan
Aensland - 68.29%*
3. Biggest Blowout in an Upset
Strictly by Seeding -
8) Pikachu vs. 9) Fox McCloud -
68.67%
8) Spyro the Dragon vs. 9) Morrigan Aensland -
68.29%*
4. Easiest "Seeding Upset" Match to Predict
-
6) Sora vs. 11)Aeris - 70.68% [of brackets
correct]
6)Kasumi vs. 11)Aeris - 67.44%*
5.
Toughest "Seeding Non-Upset" Match to Predict -
7)
KOS-MOS vs. 10) Crash Bandicoot -42.45%
3) Jill
Valentine vs. 14) Kirby - 50.77%*
---
"Ah, a party! We
haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a
party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: torey
luvullo | Posted: 8/2/2003 9:24:33 PM | Message
Detail |
| great numbers jjukil. |
| From: Team
Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/3/2003 12:45:58 AM | Message
Detail |
Just wondering, did anybody here save a copy of
CjayC's Contest Statistics page after Round 32? I've been saving
copies of it, but I forgot to do it after Round
32.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in
their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never
forget..." |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/3/2003 1:29:17 AM | Message
Detail |
Slowflake - Good job with those vote
totals stats. The totals really rocketed up. It's interesting to see
how much variation there is between divisions though (not to mention
specific matches). Looks like a lot of it really depends on how
exciting the match ups are.
Jjukil - Amazing work. I
need a little more time to pour over those before responding though.
I think my eyes are bleeding. Too many numbers today, not enough
sleep. ;)
Haste2 - Very cool. I love upset stuff. :)
Those categories make for some very interesting
comparison.
Team Rocket Elite - Try checking King
Morgoth's site first:
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/predictions.html
He should
have it up eventually. If not, I've probably still got it saved in
my cache, so hit me up later if you need to and I'll search it out
for you.
---
Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: emeraldweapon
| Posted: 8/3/2003 7:06:10 AM | Message
Detail |
I keep losing this thread, so I'm posting to
keep track of it.
---
"Growing older is mandatory. Growing up
is optional." |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/3/2003 11:34:47 AM | Message
Detail |
Oh, remember that graph I promised weeks and
weeks ago? I finally put it up on the stats site. Nothing too fancy,
just a look at the popularity of the polls this year and last. I'm
sure you can find it without my help, but here it is anyway:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/graphs.html
---
Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Yesmar
| Posted: 8/3/2003 1:10:12 PM | Message
Detail |
4. Easiest "Seeding Upset" Match to Predict
-
6) Sora vs. 11)Aeris - 70.68% [of brackets
correct]
6)Kasumi vs. 11)Aeris - 67.44%*
This
once again begs the question of why is Aeris so
underseeded?
Oh, and isn't Aeris the only person to be in the
same exact spot both years?
And Kirby was in the same exact
match, but his seed was flipflopped.
---
The wind...It is
blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind
Waker |
| From: Who
Cares? | Posted: 8/3/2003 2:47:00 PM | Message
Detail |
I believe Aeris and Mario are the only two
characters that stayed in the same seeding position as last
year.
Anyway, what is up with this match. This is the first
chance I've had to see it all day and suddenely I see all of these
cheating topics. Then I read the Match Updates & noticed the
huge chunk Ganondorf keeps taking off each update. Now I'm really
curious as to how much the 'morning vote' has made an impact in all
of these close matches.
But right now, Ganondorf is making my
observation about 5 v 12 seeded characters being in a prime position
look good! :) |
| From: Slowflake
| Posted: 8/3/2003 3:01:22 PM | Message
Detail |
Match #34 is too ****ing close to call, even
though Magus seems to have stopped the carnage for now. So... the
review will have to wait until tomorrow. But down the crapper goes
my 58% prediction, dats fo shu.
In case anyone's interested,
I decided to keep the current division of the All-Star tournament up
for a day longer, because everyone's going wild on Ganondorf vs.
Magus.
Match #36 Preview
Kind of a breather
here. I stand firm on my prediction here: the Ratchet Rebound is
sure puzzling, but Mario scored 75% against a total loser last year,
and look where it took him. We can use last year's Snake vs. Squall
as a reference: where is Luigi compared to Snake, and how much
popularity did Squall earn with Kingdom Hearts? Is this enough to
give Squall the 15% needed for the win? I doubt it. Snake's a big
name and all, but it's freakin' Luigi. And, even if he's a bit below
Snake, it still gives him a lot of points to play with. Squall beat
Jill, but he didn't destroy her. And in retrospect, Jill's wins over
Kirby and Bomberman weren't THAT impressive, and neither did her
destruction at the hands of Link. So Squall whacking a weak opponent
could have been what really happened in round 1. If you're still not
sure Luigi can take Squall, I'll take it from the other side: is
Luigi worth 10% over Jill? I think he's worth even more. So while I
think Luigi will win, he'll have a very tough time getting
60%.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . .
32/34, 0 lost . . . . Position unknown
Today's pick: Magus
over Ganondorf |
| From: Camwi
| Posted: 8/3/2003 3:02:10 PM | Message
Detail |
Magus Magus Magus! Come on, guy! You can do it!
w00t!!
---
Finally back from being banned since 10/9/02..
(Note lack of karma)
Official sponsor for Magus in the 2003
Summer Contest ^_^ |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/3/2003 5:50:32 PM | Message
Detail |
Some catch up. Although it's probably mostly
pointless of me to post these. Ever since CJayC starting doing his
own stats page I've really only been useful for the Top 10 Lists and
Contest Averages. But oh well, it's tradition.
6 - Donkey
Kong - 61027 / 62.42% (97770) - 36020 / 87.7%
11 -
Vyse - 36743 / 37.58% (97770) - 5039 / 12.3%
3 -
Tommy Vercetti - 65818 / 65.24% (100886) - 34384 /
83.7%
14 - Kite - 35068 / 34.76% (100886) - 6675 /
16.3%
7 - Lara Croft - 42940 / 37.71% (113881) - 15719
/ 38.3%
10 - Zelda - 70941 / 62.29% (113881) - 25340 /
61.7%
2 - Mega Man - 91905 / 88.96% (103305) -
39257 / 95.6%
15 - Mr. Resetti - 11400 / 11.04%
(103305) - 1802 / 4.4%
---
Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: BigE
| Posted: 8/3/2003 6:38:15 PM | Message
Detail |
Not just Mario and Aeris kept their position.
Alucard was 6th seed last year, and Dante was
4th.
Weeee! |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/3/2003 6:50:56 PM | Message
Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the
original poster] |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/3/2003 6:58:13 PM | Message
Detail |
Tonight's Results:
1 - Link - 81148 /
82.46% (98409) - 39180 / 95.4%
9 - Fox McCloud - 17261
/ 17.54% (98409)
Affected Top 10 Lists:
Top
10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in brackets)
1) Link
91.35% vs. AiAi 8.65% - (82.70%)
2) Mega Man
88.96% vs. Mr. Resetti 11.04% - (77.92%)
3)
Mario 88.42% vs. Captain Olimar 11.58% -
(76.84%)
4) Cloud Strife 86.91% vs. CATS
13.09% - (73.82%)
5) Crono 85.81% vs. Tom
Nook 14.19% - (71.62%)
6) Solid Snake 82.88%
vs. Raiden 17.12% - (65.76%)
7) (ii) Link
82.46% vs. Fox McCloud 17.54% - (64.92%)
8)
Sephiroth 82.00% vs. Raziel 18.00% -
(64.00%)
9) Dante 77.65% vs. Ryo Hazuki
22.35% - (55.30%)
10) Samus Aran 75.34% vs.
Isaac 24.66% - (50.68%)
Top 10 Highest
Individual Votes
1) Cloud Strife - 94086
2)
Link - 92998
3) Mega Man - 91905
4) Sephiroth -
90364
5) Mario - 89189
6) Crono -
88469
7) Solid Snake - 84638
8) (ii) Link -
81148
9) Samus Aran - 81123
10) Bowser -
74164
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by
votes)
1) Tidus - 57078
2) Felix -
50231
3) Pac-Man - 45905
4) Yuna -
45531
5) Lara Croft - 42940
6) Ramza Beoulve -
42482
7) Gordon Freeman - 41997
8) Scorpion -
41916
9) (ii) Fox McCloud - 39180
10) Miles
"Tails" Prower - 38685
Top 10 Easiest Matches
to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)
1)
Link 99.1% vs. AiAi 0.9%
2) Mario 98.0% vs. Captain
Olimar 2.0%
3) Mega Man 95.6% vs. Mr. Resetti 4.4%
4)
(ii) Link 95.4% vs. Fox McCloud
5) Cloud Strife
94.9% vs. CATS 5.1%
6) Sephiroth 93.9% vs. Raziel
6.1%
7) Samus Aran 93.8% vs. Isaac 6.2%
8) Crono
92.8% vs. Tom Nook 7.2%
9) Solid Snake 92.6% vs.
Raiden 7.4%
10) Luigi 87.9% vs. Ratchet
12.1%
Very interesting. I'll be by with some commentary
much later.
Also, the website is partially updated. Just the
main section, really. But you've got the updated Top 10 Lists right
here, so I'll wait until later to do that.
The Oracle
Challenge is now accepting predictions for the East Division. See
its new topic
here:
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9331148
That'll
do it for now. I think I'm going to skip my usual pre/post round
analysis this year. It's hard to find the time...
P.S. The
2002 stats site just got its 10,000th hit. Wow.
---
Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Team
Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/3/2003 7:02:25 PM | Message
Detail |
I noticed a small error on your top 10 charts.
Fox only got 17261 votes, not 39180, against
Link.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in
their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never
forget..." |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/3/2003 7:06:24 PM | Message
Detail |
Oops, that makes a lot more sense. How did I do
that? Oh well, I'll fix it later. I bet that'll cause me a lot of
grief...
---
Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/3/2003 9:08:17 PM | Message
Detail |
Heh, I think I know how that happened (sort of).
I was trying to do too much at once, there were numbers
flying everywhere, and somehow the number of people correctly
predicting the match ended up where Fox's vote total was supposed to
be. I'm not exactly sure how that happened. I knew I was
doing too much, but I was expecting to screw up in an entirely
different way, so that must have slipped by. Still should have
caught it on double check though. I knew it looked funny. I remember
thinking, "Wow, I don't think I've ever put the winner on the
highest individual votes list and the loser on the most impressive
losers list for the same match before!" Heh. Oh well. Thanks for
pointing it out. Hope that was the only problem. :)
Okay,
these two lists should have been included, and are correct now.
Also, ignore Fox's brief appearance on the Most Impressive Losers
list (above). He did not deserve to be there.
;)
Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in
brackets)
1) Link 92998 vs. AiAi 8802 -
(84196)
2) Mega Man 91905 vs. Mr. Resetti
11400 - (80505)
3) Cloud Strife 94086 vs.
CATS 14168 - (79918)
4) Mario 89189 vs.
Captain Olimar 11678 - (77511)
5) Crono
88469 vs. Tom Nook 14631 - (73838)
6)
Sephiroth 90364 vs. Raziel 19838 -
(70526)
7) Solid Snake 84638 vs. Raiden
17480 - (67158)
8) (ii) Link 81148 vs. Fox
McCloud 17261 - (63887)
9) Samus Aran 81123
vs. Isaac 26560 - (54563)
10) Dante 74068
vs. Ryo Hazuki 21316 - (52752)
Top 10
Lowest Individual Votes
1) AiAi - 8802
2) Mr.
Resetti - 11400
3) Captain Olimar - 11678
4)
CATS - 14168
5) Tom Nook - 14631
6) (ii) Fox
McCloud - 17261
7) Raiden - 17480
8) Raziel -
19838
9) Ryo Hazuki - 21316
10) Ratchet -
24099
---
Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Haste2
| Posted: 8/3/2003 9:23:03 PM | Message
Detail |
Does anyone else think it's absolutely insane
that more people predicted Link over AiAi, Pikachu, AND Fox than
Crono over Tom Nook? Insane, I tell you!
---
"Ah, a party!
We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a
party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: MMXcalibur
| Posted: 8/3/2003 9:28:12 PM | Message
Detail |
I'm not sure what to make of this
match.
Ganondorf just can't make it past Magus' 400 vote
barrier.
Whenever he gains some steam and gets a lil' rally
goin', Magus answers right back.
I think Ganondorf is going
to run out of time if he doesn't do something
NOW!!!!
---
MEGA MAN RD.2: vs
Zelda
(12)Ganondorf vs (13)Magus (31/34 pts.) |
| From: NT220
| Posted: 8/3/2003 10:56:20 PM | Message
Detail |
Ganondorf vs. Magus
Well, either
way this match turns out, it cements Magus's place beside Tommy
Vercetti and Kefka as one of the biggest disappointments of Summer
2003. Once billed as one of the major threats to take down Link, he
couldn't even build a significant lead against Ganon, watching his
lead erode as the day went on. In fact, this makes Magus's
performance analogous with Aya Brea's last year - both beat an
overseeded scrub in the first round, then took a Nintendo character
to a photo-finish. The results of this match is still up in the air,
but either way it means that Magus isn't much stronger than Tidus or
Aya - not favorable comparisons at all.
As I said before,
16-bit RPG support outside of Crono isn't as strong as we thought.
Chrono Trigger gets lots and lots of love (more than it deserves,
perhaps) in the boards, but the board isn't exactly a good indicator
of game/character popularity as CATS can testify. CT may have been
the most popular RPG of its era, but it still can't come close to
the PSX giants. Of course, Crono's popularity is mystifying in this
light, although perhaps spikey hair and a katana pulls more weight
then expected. Either way, Magus won't be a challenge to Link -
he'll be lucky to get 35%. I still think his and Sam's seedings
should have been switched, but he ain't a title hope no matter what
the draw.
Oh, and it's a shame that the cheating accusations
have to start this round. Inevitable, but still a
shame.
---
"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth
is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/3/2003 10:59:49 PM | Message
Detail |
No thanks... if I wanted to enter, I'd put
more precise percentages. I just wanted to give an approximative
idea of how I thought the matches would turn out.
That's
too bad. Because after the Link battle you would've been in 8th. Not
looking too good on Magus though. ;)
---
Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: MyWorldIsSquare
| Posted: 8/3/2003 11:12:03 PM | Message
Detail |
Well, either way this match turns out, it
cements Magus's place beside Tommy Vercetti and Kefka as one of the
biggest disappointments of Summer 2003.
Nah, not
really.
A Sweet Sixteen appearance...which Magus, at this
point, looks to inevitably take, even if only by a 500 vote
margin...is damn decent for a videogame character regardless of how
you color it. For a one-game RPG character that's NOT in a Final
Fantasy...Magus...to be doing so damn well against a legend like
Ganon is a great indicator of what a wonderful character he was.
:P
Oh, and let me add this for thought; if seeded against
certain different opponents, I could envision Magus getting much
farther than the Sweet 16. Link will stop him in is tracks, I'm
sure, but many of the others wouldn't be as lucky.
So, Magus
is doing just fine and dandy by my account. He's only a
disappointment if you expected him to beat the huge gaming
giants, but seriously, I never would have expected him to beat Link,
and I'm a Magus fanatic. I just gotta admit that Magus, like Kefka,
is more of an RPG fad character...serious, hardcore RPG gamers who
actually know who he is love him to death (myself included),
but other RPG characters from more popular games (*cough* FF7 *hack*
*cough*) will tend to garner more votes simply because the game(s)
are more well-known.
(Plus, characters like Sephy and Squall
are bound to generate more votes from the Kingdom Hearts effect,
which made both those characters in particular a lot cooler in my
eyes. If Magus appeared in a cameo on a PS2 game like KH, Magus
would have done much better, as he'd have endeared himself to a
whole new generation of gamers.)
---
Check out
Endgame, my fanfiction project...my Survivor
topic...and my Summer Contest CYOA Fanfic. |
| From: NT220
| Posted: 8/3/2003 11:24:27 PM | Message
Detail |
When I was picking out my bracket, I didn't
expect Magus to do that well, either. In fact, I had a pretty long
debate with myself on who would win between Magus and Ganon. When I
came to this board, though, the Magus support surprised me. A lot of
people were hyping him up as Link's first true challenger, and a
small but insistent handful even proclaimed him as the one who will
end Link's reign. Even in this thread, Magus gets a lot of credit.
Hell, Slowflake even counted Magus as a top-tier in his "easiest
road to the championship" analysis.
I was a bit swayed by the
Magus hype myself, to the point where I didn't think he'd have any
trouble against Ganon.
---
"The surest sign of intelligent
life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us"
~Calvin |
| From: Slowflake
| Posted: 8/3/2003 11:43:28 PM | Message
Detail |
Match #34 Review
Me? At this hour?
Yea, I decided to go to bed earlier and cut the night in two for the
big showdown. Looks like it wasn't to be... Magus seems to have this
in the bag.
OK, first of all, I'm stunned at the number of
people who say that if Magus can beat Ganondorf, he can beat Link
because they have the same fanbase. To that, I answer... could Tidus
lose only by 2000 to Link? His loss to Sonic last year was in the
TENS OF THOUSANDS, and we know how hard Link would whip Sonic's
butt...
Of course, this means Sonic would have no problem
against Magus, which makes me look like an ass when I supported for
a long time that it was the reverse. Officially bar Magus from the
list of top-tiers, and replace it with Sonic. Congratulations, you
won.
But what does this mean for the future of the survivor?
Pain and suffering next round, that's what.
Well, I think I'm
done. Any comments? ... or "PWNED"?
---
Summer 2003
Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 32/34, 0 lost . . . . Position
unknown
Today's pick: Magus over Ganondorf |
| From: cyko
| Posted: 8/3/2003 11:48:15 PM | Message
Detail |
cyko's Match 35 Preview
(3) Luigi vs.
(6) Squall Leonheart
i thought i better get this one in
first before the match started. =P here we go with a second Nintendo
vs. Square in a row. however, this match isn't expected to be
anywhere near as close as Magus vs. Ganondorf. Luigi's strength is
still a little hard to gauge. Ratchet was a relatively
unrecognizable (and goofy looking) character. he has the eternal
underdog support of younger brothers everywhere, but we really don't
have anything to compare his popularity to his brother, Mario. is he
more of a contender than Mario, or will he fizzle out right away?
just being a big part of the Mario Bros. series should give Luigi
enough momentum to get past Squall.
Squall is one of the
lesser liked Final Fantasy heroes; some say even more than Tidus. he
still has the Square support and Kingdom Hearts has helped his image
somewhat. but his 60% victory over Jill doesn't give me enough
reason to believe that he can take Luigi down. we might be
overestimating Luigi, but i still think he can take it; if for no
other reason, than for Nintendo's revenge for Ganondorf. Luigi will
have to make quite a strong showing here, though, to have a chance
against Samus next round.
prediction- Luigi with
58-62%
---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3
characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth
and Mr. Resetti |
| From: FFantasyFX
| Posted: 8/3/2003 11:53:00 PM | Message
Detail |
Great and informative discussion guys.
A
hypothetical though: If this match had been held tomorrow, Monday,
rather than today, would Gannon have won?
There is no way to
get a definitive answer that question, but it is interesting to
ponder. How much of a variable does the day make? Besides one
bizarre evening run, Ganondorf did most of his damage during the
prime "casual" voting hours (early morning to early afternoon). Most
weekday contests attract more voters, which I assume would be more
likely to be casual voters. Would a simple shift in day been enough
to change the results of the match? Maybe, maybe not. Just throwing
it out for discussion. |
| From: Old
Master Q | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:01:44 AM | Message
Detail |
Annd noww, we have the second major upset of the
tournament!!
Lotsa users on this board (including me) are
going nuts, I might add.
Squall sure has surprised us this
year. First Jill, and now LUIGI????
---
TROGDOR!!
Sum2k3
score - 32/36 Next pick: Luigi |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/4/2003 1:06:02 AM | Message
Detail |
SQUALL!
I liked FF8, but
now Squall has to ruin everything. I liked him better last year when
he took his beating from Solid Snake like a man.
---
Summer
2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current
Record: 30-4 / 32 points won / 4 points lost / Tied at #657 |
| From: NT220
| Posted: 8/4/2003 1:07:53 AM | Message
Detail |
Blah, two more points down the
crapper.
Still don't see Squall downing Samus,
though.
---
"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth
is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
| From: Who
Cares? | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:19:54 AM | Message
Detail |
WHAT THE CRAP!!! Right now, Squall beating Luigi
in this early stage HAS to rank higher than Shadow over Wario in the
'biggest upset' department. I always felt that this match would be
interesting in the first hour or so, but I didn't expect this.
Did Kingdom Hearts seriously change the way people felt
about this guy that much??? (Haven't played either KH or FF8)
Whatever the case, this has to be the biggest single year turnaround
in the contest, and it will take a massive morning vote by Luigi to
take this one. |
| From: NT220
| Posted: 8/4/2003 1:21:22 AM | Message
Detail |
Well, anybody want to hazard a guess at how many
brackets got this correct? I think the number would be surprisingly
high... maybe even as high as 35%.
---
"The surest sign of
intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to
contact us" ~Calvin |
| From: creativename
| Posted: 8/4/2003 1:32:06 AM | Message
Detail |
I...am...in...shock. I am dumbfounded. Not even
Wario vs. Shadow shocked me nearly as much as this.
HOW?!!????!!!!
@#$*%$ Squall. Seriously. I actually
liked FF8, probably more than most. And I'm a HUGE Square
fanboy. However, I care nothing for Squall. I don't really dislike
him, like I dislike Zidane--however, Luigi has always been my
boy. So this is pissing me the **** off.
How could this
happen? I'm honestly at a loss. Kingdom Hearts is the only
explanation. That, and of course Luigi not being as popular as
anticipated. This result pretty much means that Luigi isn't even
that much greater than Jill. That's just *wrong*.
One more
thing: MAGUS IS NOT YET A DISAPPOINTMENT
I posted
earlier in this thread how I expected the underestimation of Tidus
to lead to a whole bunch of conclusions on this board--conclusions
that weren't necessarily warranted. Here's a copy & paste of
it:
*People underestimate Tidus, and Ganon barely beat
Tidus
-->People will underestimate Ganon
*Magus vs. Ganon
(let's assume Magus wins for the moment) could be much closer than
people think, because Ganon is actually pretty
strong.
-->Thus, if/when Magus doesn't convincingly beat
Ganon, people will underestimate Magus.
*At this point, people
might expect Link to annihilate Magus--however, while Link will very
likely win, it probably won't be a complete mis-match.
-->If
Magus get around 40% of the vote against Link, people will suddenly
conclude Link is vulnerable. This will lead people to overestimating
Samus' chances.
The board consensus right now appears to be
that Link will slaughter Magus. This is possible (Link slaughtering
anybody is hardly a surprise), but is hardly set in stone. Fact is,
Ganon beating Tidus was quite impressive. Ganon is popular. I'd say
Ganon is almost as popular as Solid freakin' Snake. Magus beating
him, even by almost nothing, is not to be taken
lightly.
Remember...Crono beat Snake with about 54%. I'd say
that Magus and Ganon would each split with Snake 50/50. So while
Crono might be more popular than Magus, Magus is hardly a chump.
He's still a powerhouse in this tourney--and rather than seeing him
as someone that was lucky to squeak by Ganon, we should instead
think this: Magus, Ganon, AND Tidus were screwed by their bracket
positioning.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if
there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: Haste2
| Posted: 8/4/2003 1:47:25 AM | Message
Detail |
I am in awe from the results as well. Indeed,
Luigi will likely catch up some in the morning, but it will more
than likely not be enough. Well, there was a minute or two or Luigi
glory at least...
It really confuses me...let's compare this
to Mario vs. Cloud.
Mario beat Cloud. Squall is beating
Luigi.
We know that Mario > Cloud and Squall >
Luigi
Thus, if Cloud > Squall..
Then Mario >>>
Luigi.
This makes no sense if you ask me. I thought Luigi
would be MUCH closer to Mario than Squall would be to
Cloud.
However, we can't forget that Planet GameCube helped
out with Mario and Link last year; I suppose Mario would've lost to
Cloud without them.
I know I might be jumping to conclusions
early, but could this possibly mean that Mario will be disposed of
by Crono this time around?
Who Cares?, aren't you supposed
to not care what happens in this contest? =p
---
"Ah, a
party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a
party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:50:35 AM | Message
Detail |
Team Rocket Elite - Sorry for the lack of
updates, I've been really busy these past few days, but I've
updated/completed the first round stats on my site
(www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth), including a table with all the
scores after the first round at the bottom. I'm going away for one
week so I won't be able to update until Friday/Saturday,
sadly
---
"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who
wander are lost"
Current Points: 33/36 |
| From: Team
Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/4/2003 2:08:07 AM | Message
Detail |
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/30/2003 5:11:33
PM
"Is being seeded third a kiss of
death?"
Yes.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to
carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another
reality. Never forget..." |
| From: creativename
| Posted: 8/4/2003 2:14:00 AM | Message
Detail |
slowflake:
So the only deserving 3-seed
EVER would be Luigi
0_o
<cries>
:(
And another one bites the dust...
---
Frog must be
in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to
nominate Frog in 2004! |
| From: red
sox 777 | Posted: 8/4/2003 7:49:05 AM | Message
Detail |
"However, we can't forget that Planet GameCube
helped out with Mario and Link last year; I suppose Mario would've
lost to Cloud without them.
I know I might be jumping to
conclusions early, but could this possibly mean that Mario will be
disposed of by Crono this time around?"
Well, if my memory
serves me right, during the Mario/Cloud match, Mario was only behind
by 700 at the point where Cloud's lead was largest (early morning).
By the time of PGC's intervention, Mario was already on his way
back, having cut the lead to 400. Also, PGC didn't intervene in the
Mario/Crono match.
---
Summer Contest 2003: 29 out of 34
points |
| From: steve
illumina | Posted: 8/4/2003 8:24:15 AM | Message
Detail |
I, along with all of the other experts on this
board, am in shock. I mean...all of us picked Luigi to win by
margins between 50-70%! I did not read any picks for Squall by
anyone on this thread! Aaaah!
How could it come to this?
Average hero Squall taking out 20 year gaming star Luigi? Squall,
disliked by even many of the Squareites, defeating one of the icons
of Nintendo? This is gonna cost me 2 points to make it all
worse!
Maybe we all overestimated Luigi...or underestimated
Squall...or both...call it one of the great mysteries of gaming or
something...geesh!
---
~Steve Illumina~ Round 2: 2/2
Today: Go Luigi!
Official Sephiroth Supporter: Summer Contest
2003 |
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