GameFAQs: General Message List

Summer 2003 Contest

Stats & Discussion - Summer 2003 Contest

From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 7/25/2003 3:40:58 PM | Message Detail

Couple of interesting 2nd round matches:

Zero Vs. Sonic - Being Sega's mascot and all, Sonic is the popular pick here, and for good reasons. But I wouldn't be surprised if Zero pulls an upset here. Consensus is that Megaman is stronger than Sonic, but where does that leave Zero? If it's anywhere near Megaman's level, Zero will wipe the floor with the blue hedgehog. I hope most people will have given up on their brackets at this point, which would prevent automatic votes for Sonic without much thoughts. If Zero can win here, he'll certainly defeat Aeries.

Yoshi Vs. Bowser - If only Super Mario Brothers fans' votes counted, Yoshi will win easily. But I think photogenic Bowser with his classic villain look will win majority of the votes from none SMB fans. I regret picking Yoshi, as I expect Bowser to get around 55% of the votes here.

From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 7/25/2003 3:47:31 PM | Message Detail

I disagree about female characters having disadvantage by default. Ken is miles behind(I hate to admit this as Ken is my character of choice) Chun Li, Blanka, and possibly Guile in terms of popularity. BTW, I have no idea what makes you think Vega is popular, aside from his looks. If you goto arcades, there are hardly any vega players at all. I don't think Akuma is well known outside of 2D fighting diehards circle. If SF gets 2 nominations next year, it should be Ryu and Chun Li or Blanka. Though Ken is probably as popular as Scorpion, he doesn't deserve to be in the tournament over more popular SF characters.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/25/2003 3:52:49 PM | Message Detail

Slowflake's miracle prediction has given me the perfect opportunity to offer you guys a sneak preview of a competition I was hoping to run (assuming I have enough time). It's inspired partially by MMXcalibur's Prophet Challenge, Ringworm's betting topics, and nearly every prediction post I've ever seen. The basic idea is to predict not just the winner of each match, but the percentage of the votes they will get. The aim is to see who can most accurately gauge each character's popularity. Okay, so we all knew Sephiroth would beat Raziel, giving everyone 1 point in their bracket. But Slowflake predicted the exact vote split, which is much better than I would have done. :) So I'm hoping this competition will reward those who can most accurately predict the outcome of each match.

The competition is tentatively called "The Oracle Challenge" (because MMX already took "Prophet"). ;) The basic scoring model is that everyone can earn up to 50 points for each match. If you pick the winner and guess exactly right (like Slowflake) you get 50 points. If you're off by 2% I subtract 2 points, giving you 48. If you're off by 9.5% you get 40.5 points. Etc. If you pick the wrong character you'll usually get 0 points, although you may get still get a few in relatively close matches (based on a formula I'll explain later).

So, that's the basic idea. I'm hoping to start it at the beginning of the second round. And hopefully I'll have enough time to run this as well as keep up with the stats. :)

Feedback is welcome. If this is a dumb idea, I'd like to know. ;)
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/25/2003 3:53:00 PM | Message Detail

Match #25 Review

Who's impressed with Raiden's showing? I certainly am. The confusion between the jillions of Raidens in the gaming world HAS to be a factor, as there seemed to be some confusion among some people on the board. Maybe pity votes helped Raiden too... keep in mind not everyone played MGS2. Plus, Raiden DOES have fans, as I said yesterday. With all of these factors together, it's hard to tell Snake's true might: we only have last year as a basis.

Match #26 Preview

This is it. The most hyped round 1 match this year (and maybe both combined)... and rightfully so, with both forces being (or seeming, see Kirby vs. Ramza) equal. It looks like a TON of the board members' votes will go to Knuckles... but we don't have much of a say, and neither do bracket-votes, as seen many times in the past. Some bring up Auron vs. Tails as an argument in Yuna's favor, but with Knuckles and Auron being more popular than Tails and Yuna, you never know... You can add the awesome performances of the rest of the Sonic cast, and you get one heck of a match.

What? You want a prediction? To the hundredth? Okay, so I say Knuckles wins with 51,18% of the vote. Now it will be absolutely CREEPY if I get THAT one correct. ^_^
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 22/24, 0 lost . . . . . T-223 (758-way)
Today's pick: Snake

From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 7/25/2003 3:54:06 PM | Message Detail

Wow, us Prophets are going to be way over again tonight. How is Snake only getting 83%, despite the fact that you can't possibly anti-vote his series? Hm...

Anyways, as long as we're on the topic of stats, there's something I haven't seen yet which I think would be quite interesting: a complete 2002 VS 2003 Statistical Breakdown. Yeah, we all know that the vote totals are way up, but it seems to me that the average winning percentages are down considerably. And also, people seem to be having a tougher time with their picks, and I believe we have less perfects left (%age wise) than we did at this point last year, though I'm not sure. Yeah, it could make for a pretty neat stats page, if someone wanted to whip that up...

---
the-elite.net

From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 7/25/2003 4:03:48 PM | Message Detail

I'm not truly impressed by Raiden's showing, considering that I think Snake is the weakest #1 seed, and maybe not even top 2 in his own division. There are lots of people who don't like Snake at all, and he does seem to have a decent amount of haters among the posters.

And yes, solar, it is the Canadian Smart Ask (not that there are any others I know of).
---
RPGP Contributor "DragoonJay@excite.com"; Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/25/2003 4:08:36 PM | Message Detail

How is Snake only getting 83%, despite the fact that you can't possibly anti-vote his series?

I disagree with that. If you're going to anti-vote, you take it out on the most well-liked character. Anyone who wants to anti-vote MGS will pick Raiden. Which has to account for most of his votes, doesn't it?

Anyways, as long as we're on the topic of stats, there's something I haven't seen yet which I think would be quite interesting: a complete 2002 VS 2003 Statistical Breakdown.

Sounds like a lot of work. ;) I'll try to do some of that over the course of the contest. I actually had a graph I meant to post that compared the vote totals by match for the two years (also broken down by round). I'll see if I can dig that up, update it, then post it in the next couple days. As for the rest of the stuff, I'm sure you can find some takers around here... :)

Which reminds me: I'm going to open a section on the stats site called "Contributions". There's so much good stuff in this topic, and I feel a lot of it would benefit by either being on the site, or being linked to from the site. I'll be throwing whatever stats-related stuff I like from this topic in there, unless there are specific objections. Again, this may not happen for a while (still waiting on an Internet connection).
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 7/25/2003 4:14:07 PM | Message Detail

And yes, solar, it is the Canadian Smart Ask (not that there are any others I know of).

Oops. I meant Samberdog. That's what I get for not checking my posts before I click.
---
RPGP Contributor "DragoonJay@excite.com"; Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)

From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 7/25/2003 4:15:33 PM | Message Detail

Ha, that's an excellent idea, solarshadow. Actually, I'm already competing, as I've been predicting winner votes/losers votes/total votes/margin and percentage for every match so far. (To no avail, I might add. *sigh*) But I guess I could post the same info in two topics nightly... If you do it, definitely have us predict to two decimal places, and have a rule like MMX on not being able to guess the same number.

---
the-elite.net

From: creativename | Posted: 7/25/2003 7:11:19 PM | Message Detail

Well, I don't know what people consider a complete statistical breakdown, but I've put some stuff up on the web; there's a couple of charts too:

http://home.nyc.rr.com/saqib/GameFAQs/bracket_comparison.htm

Here are the numbers for 2002 (complete 1st round):

Average Votes: 60,272.16
Standard Deviation of Average Votes: 6,279.49
Relative Standard Deviation: 0.104185539
Winner's Average Vote %: 68.85%
Standard Deviation onf Winner's Average Vote %: 0.106256932

2003 (North, East, South Divisions Only):

Average Votes: 101,758.42
Standard Deviation of Average Votes: 6,848.62
Relative Standard Deviation: 0.067302737
Winner's Average Vote %: 68.39%
Standard Deviation onf Winner's Average Vote %: 0.119171433

where "Relative Standard Deviation" = Standard Deviation of Average Votes divided by Average Votes
______"Average Votes" = Average of Total Votes per match
______"Winner's Average Vote %" = Average % of votes that the winners received

Obviously, the average votes per match has gone up by about 68.8%. However, the average % of votes that the winner receives in each math is virtually unchanged. The deviation in the % that the winner receives is also not significantly different.

The one thing that has changed, is the the relative standard deviation--this seems to have gone down. However, this could simply be a statistical quirk; or, standard deviation of votes may be a non-linear function of total votes.

There are charts on the page I put the link up to earlier. The first one compares the total votes by match from 2002 and 2003. These are pretty erratic, with peaks and valleys. Both charts show similar patterns. The other chart shows the Winner's % of votes by match, from 2002 and 2003. This chart shows a fairly clear up-and-down pattern for both years--obviously, due to the fact that the contest has a seeding system; higher seeds should be expected to win, and the tournament follows a high seed-disparity to low seed-disparity match pattern.

So, basically, the contest seems to be the same as last year--no real difference in the behavior of voters. More voters this year, but that's it.

I don't have any data on how people were doing, score-wise, thru the 1st round of last year's contest. Solarshadow's site has data for each match, but I couldn't find any stuff about scores partially thru the contest. If anyone knows where to get such data, let me know.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: ardonite | Posted: 7/26/2003 1:30:48 AM | Message Detail

when're the top 10s gonna be updated... they're my favorite...

From: cyko | Posted: 7/26/2003 11:39:03 AM | Message Detail

your wish is my command, ardonite. and now that there are enough matches, i have expanded to top ten lists. enjoy!

Top 10 Vote Getters

1. Cloud Strife- 94086
2. Link- 92998
3. Sephiroth- 90364
4. Mario- 89189
5. Crono- 88469
6. Solid Snake- 84638
7. Samus Aran- 81123
8. Bowser- 74164
9. Sonic- 73484
10. Zero- 70885

Top 10 Most Pathetic Characters (Least Votes)

1. Aiai- 8802
2. Captain Olimar- 11678
3. CATS- 14168
4. Tom Nook- 14631
5. Raiden- 17480
6. Raziel- 19838
7. Ratchet- 24099
8. Ness- 24627
9. Isaac- 26560
10. Sam Fisher- 30866

Top 10 Blowouts (Biggest Vote Difference)

1. Link over Aiai- 84196
2. Cloud over Cats- 79918
3. Mario over Captain Olimar- 77511
4. Crono over Tom Nook- 73838
5. Sephiroth over Raziel- 70526
6. Solid Snake over Raiden- 67158
7. Samus over Isaac- 54563
8. Bowser over Ness- 49537
9. Luigi over Ratchet- 46451
10. Sonic over Ken- 40338

Top 10 Closest Matches

1. Ganondorf over Tidus- 1582
2. Kefka over Pac-Man- 1773
3. Master Chief over Felix- 6318
4. Max Payne over Gordon Freeman- 7284
5. Kirby over Ramza- 15380
6. Squall over Jill- 19118
7. KOS-MOS over Crash Bandicoot- 23631
8. Zero over Scorpion- 28969
9. Alucard over Bomberman- 29318
10. Magus over Sam Fisher- 29732

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers

1. Tidus- 57078
2. Felix- 50231
3. Pac-Man- 45905
4. Ramza- 42482
5. Gordon Freeman- 41997
6. Scorpion- 41916
7. Tails- 38685
8. Jill Valentine- 38274
9. Crash Bandicoot- 37510
10. Wario- 36721

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners

1. Kefka- 47678
2. Max Payne- 49281
3. Master Chief- 56549
4. Squall- 57392
5. Kirby 57862
6. Ganondorf- 58660
7. Magus- 60598
8. KOS-MOS- 61141
9. Yoshi- 61421
10. Aeris- 65196

Top 10 Biggest Vote Totals

1. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 115738
2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 112801
3. Sephiroth vs. Raziel- 110202
4. Auron vs. Tails- 108884
5. Cloud vs. CATS- 108254
6. Samus vs. Isaac- 107683
7. Master Chief vs. Felix- 106780
8. Sonic vs. Ken- 106630
9. Wario vs. Shadow the Hedgehog- 104607
10. Crono vs. Tom Nook- 103100

Top 10 Smallest Vote Totals

1. Gordon Freeman vs. Max Payne- 91278
2. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 91464
3. Yoshi vs. Conker- 92418
4. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 93583
5. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 94649
6. Squall vs. Jill Valentine- 95666
7. Sora vs. Aeris- 97810
8. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 98651
9. Bowser vs. Ness- 98791
10. Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud- 98818

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Pick (Based on Number of Correct Contest Entries)

1. Link vs. Aiai- 99.1%
2. Mario vs. Captain Olimar- 98.0%
3. Cloud vs. CATS- 94.9%
4. Sephiroth vs. Raziel- 93.9%
5. Samus vs. Isaac- 93.8%
6. Crono vs. Tom Nook- 92.8%
7. Solid Snake vs. Raiden- 92.6%
8. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 87.9%
9. Sonic vs. Ken- 84.4%
10. Kirby vs. Ramza- 80.0%

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Pick

1. Wario vs. Shadow the Hedgehog- 42.1%
2. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 42.5%
3. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 43.5%
4. Zero vs. Scorpion- 47.3%
5. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 47.7%
6. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 56.9%
7. Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud- 57.4%
8. Auron vs. Tails- 60.7%
9. Squall vs. Jill Valentine- 62.1%
10. Alucard vs. Bomberman- 63.0%

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/26/2003 1:18:49 PM | Message Detail

Max & Gordon followup: If any of you have any doubts as to whether Sephiroth will win his next matchup, keep in mind that Max and Gordon combined got fewer votes than Link....

Sephiroth and Raziel: Well, at least he didn't make Raziel look like AiAi. He still did significantly better against Raziel than Link did against Strider last year, however. And while Raziel and Strider didn't tie, they were very close. Not looking good for us Mario supporters...but, obviously, I'm not throwing in the towel just yet.

Snake and Raiden: Yeah, this was about what I'd expected. On paper, it's pretty funny, but in reality there's the joke voters, the underdog/pity voters and the anti-MGS voters all backing up Raiden's small-but-loyal cadre of true fans. Actually, I kind of expected more of a turnout for Raiden; the fact that Snake did so much better in this year's "joke" matchup than last year's may mean he'll be a bigger threat this time around. Which would be pretty nice to see, as long as he doesn't beat Mega Man....

From: vipergamer | Posted: 7/26/2003 2:23:50 PM | Message Detail

Hey great topic. I have started a stats topic, but did not know there was already one. I recommend a truce, and will be posting the link to your page on mine. Here is mine if anyone cares to take a gander.

From: vipergamer | Posted: 7/26/2003 2:24:43 PM | Message Detail

left out the thread dumb me.

http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9184935

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/26/2003 2:48:42 PM | Message Detail

This is the only chance I'll get to post today, so I'll do my review now since the outcome is no longer in question.

Knuckles vs Yuna Review

It was touted as the most difficult match to pick in the entire first round, and some people still weren't sure even before the start of the match. Everyone thought Yuna would have this one easily after performances by Tidus, Squall, and Auron handling Tails. But after struggles by Kefka & Ramza, and Shadow destroying Wario, the match became even again, and possibly tipped in Knuckles favor. But as of right now, it looks as if Knuckles will walk away the victor. We can take in a lot of things just from this one match.

When I got home from my late shift at work about 3am Pacific, Knux was up by about 1100 and looked like that his lead would just hover that total for the rest of the match. But after only about 5-6 hours of sleep, I look up and notice that Knux lead had swelled up to 3000. And now the lead is up to 6000 votes and still increasing. If there was any doubt left that a morning vote didn't exist, this match laid them to rest.

Another thing, we know that Knuckles IS the most popular supporting character in the Sonic series. However, I do see some fellow Sonic fans getting a bit overconfident after the performances by Knux & Shadow. But while it's too early to say that Sonic can challenge Cloud, his chances does look alot better vs Aeris (all assuming he's gets past Zero of course). But it right now, it's clear that Yuna is NO Aeris.

As far as Yuna is concerned, she falls into the category with Tidus, Ganondorf, & Wario, meaning that it doesn't matter how popular your game/series is if no one likes or cares about you. So now this almost makes you think about Zelda's chances in her match in a few days since the argument of 'she's the titular character of her series' no longer holds any weight.

As for the next round, we will be treated to a match that should appropriately be titled the "Haven't We Seen This Script Before Match". Snake beat Knux by 15K votes last year, and unless there has been a major anti-Snake/Knux-lovers uprising in the past year, Snake will move on. However, that doesn't mean that match is meaningless. If Snake can't at least match his percentage count from last year (61%), there will be doubt about his chances to make the Final Four.

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/26/2003 3:18:53 PM | Message Detail

I disagree with the Zelda thing... I think she'll just win with 55-60% instead of 65-70%.

Match #26 Review

The match lived up to the expectations... until sunrise, that is. Knuckles quickly took a 1000-vote lead, then Yuna seemed to come back a little. But the "kids" really dug her grave from there. Another awesome performance from the Sonic cast... could it build Sonic's status as a legit threat to Cloud? Anyway, it's one more proof that politicking doesn't account for much, as we get a not-so-wanted rematch between KTE and Snake, and I say not-so-wanted because Snake won rather easily last year, and he'll probably do it this year again.

And no matter what happens, my prediction of 51.18% was not good at all. Damn me for blowing up... well, I don't know, but I blew something up.

Match #27 Preview

Iori Yagami is an obviously very weak opponent, and Duke had trouble with him last year. Meanwhile, Ryu defended himself well against Samus... this is a no-brainer. The CATS army alone sure won't push Nukem over the top... Another year of sitting down and chewing bubblegum for Duke.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 23/25, 0 lost . . . . . T-220 (750-way)
Today's pick: Knuckles

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/27/2003 1:36:10 AM | Message Detail

Solar your contest sounds like a good idea. I don't think I'll do too well though, I'm awful at guessing percentages. Is it going to be cumulative like Ringworm's or less exclusive like MMX's? I like the betting and the ongoing contest... but they both have their pros and cons.

Is it just me or has this topic been getting a lot busier as of late. Before we were worried about it getting lost in the purge... now it's like BAM! three pages. Or maybe's it's just because I haven't posted in a while...

Cool stuff creative name. Pretty interesting that last year and this year are so close. Also I was looking at your charts, and it seems that this year's results peak and valley much more than last year. Just an observation.

Hurray for cyko's TOP TEN lists!

I also have an upcoming little "side project" up my "sleeve." It's probably nothing to get too excited about right now but I'll refer to it as if it was...

Match #24 - Sephiroth VS Raziel - Review

Sephiroth - 90364 / 82%
Raziel - 19838 / 18%

Total - 110202 (3rd highest)

Prediction Percentage - 93.9% (21st hardest)
My Pick - Sephiroth
Analysis Topic Pick - Sephiroth
"Odds" Pick - Sephiroth

Brackets Ruined - 69 (giggle)

So Sephiroth's got the votes (90000!) but he doesn't quite have the percentage margin to run with the other big boys. Should Sephiroth fans be worried? Hell no! Raziel is way tougher than the opponents that the other upper tiers (with the possible exception of Samus and Sonic) had to face in the first round. 82% is quite good. Sephiroth is poised to win the division. After the first round, I can easily say Sephiroth is the strongest character in the South.

South Division Review

And speaking of the South, it's done now! We all knew that the South would be the toughest in the later rounds, but I never would have thought the first round would be so crazy. Wario and Kefka were supposed to be locks! Where'd Shadow come from? Why did Kefka suck so bad? Kirby and Max? Don't get me started! Boring first round matches aside, these last eight matches gave us some info for what are sure to be some of the best battles in the contest. Mario and Crono are both in top form, there third round rematch should be another poll for the ages... Then the winner gets to take on Super-Power Sephiroth for the division title. Kefka, once thought to be a genuine threat to Crono, has been exposed for being disappointingly weak. The second round as a whole looks pretty boring in the South, except for Alucard/Kirby, which should be close.
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 22-4 / 22 points won / 4 points lost

From: cyko | Posted: 7/27/2003 3:14:21 PM | Message Detail

The competition is tentatively called "The Oracle Challenge" (because MMX already took "Prophet"). ;) The basic scoring model is that everyone can earn up to 50 points for each match. If you pick the winner and guess exactly right (like Slowflake) you get 50 points. If you're off by 2% I subtract 2 points, giving you 48. If you're off by 9.5% you get 40.5 points. Etc. If you pick the wrong character you'll usually get 0 points, although you may get still get a few in relatively close matches (based on a formula I'll explain later).

sounds good, Solarshadow. count me in!

As far as Yuna is concerned, she falls into the category with Tidus, Ganondorf, & Wario, meaning that it doesn't matter how popular your game/series is if no one likes or cares about you. So now this almost makes you think about Zelda's chances in her match in a few days since the argument of 'she's the titular character of her series' no longer holds any weight.

sorry Who Cares, but again, i gotta agree with Slowflake on this one. Lara Croft would have a much better chance if her games weren't such a steaming pile of crap. she does have a new movie out, which will probably help a bit, but CJayC isn't gonna use a picture of Angelina Jolie, so it won't help too much. and last year, Lara Croft had trouble against Ryo Hazuki; and even Chop Chop Master freaking Onion managed over 30%. Lara really isn't that well-liked. Zelda might be in trouble if it wasn't for Super Smash Bros. Melee. she was one of the better characters in the game and fans finally got to play as her extensively, building her own fanbase; instead of solely as Link's damsel in distress. Lara Croft doesn't stand a chance.

Hurray for cyko's TOP TEN lists!

thanks, Samberdog! i aim to please.

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: cyko | Posted: 7/27/2003 3:16:49 PM | Message Detail

cyko's Match 26 Review

Knuckles vs. Yuna

well, it looks like i severely underestimated the fanbase of the Sonic Team. first Shadow and now Knuckles costs me a point. -_- not that it matters too much, because neither of them will beat Mario or Solid Snake respectively. i seriously thought Final Fantasy X-2 and Yuna's hot new look would play a factor in this match, but i guess it adds further proof that a big upcoming release won't help a character. Yuna, Master Chief, and Gordon Freeman all have highly anticipated titles coming out, but all performed poorly. i guess most people only pay attention to what is already out. ah, well. so Knuckles gets his rematch against Solid Snake, but he hasn't done anything in the past year to do better than the 40% he got last year against Snake.

cyko's Match 27 Review

Ryu vs. Duke Nukem

as the first round winds down to a close, we get treated to four consecutive beatings. (well, except for Vyse, who will do okay against D.K., but still has no chance) at 3:00, Ryu is up by over 25000 with 70% and looking very strong right now. Dante will have to put up similar numbers tomorrow to stand a chance in round 2. Alucard on the other hand isn't looking so tough anymore. he beat Duke Nukem last year by about 13000 with only 61% of the vote, and Duke is proving that he isn't much of an opponent right now. the vampire is gonna have his hands full with Kirby next round.

cyko's Match 28 Preview

Dante vs. Ryo Hazuki

this one's been covered pretty well already. Dante has a major advantage in the looks department with his swords AND guns compared to Ryo's .....um..... averageness. it doesn't help that not a whole lot of people know who Ryo is or what game he is from. Dante isn't exactly a household name either, but Devil May Cry has a larger fanbase than Shenmue. Dante should be able to take this one easily.

now the bad news about Dante. well, bad for me anyways. after checking my bracket recently, i noticed that i am registered for Dante over Ryu in round 2. -_- i could swear that i picked Ryu. #@!$@**!! Dante had better make a strong showing against Ryo to give me a little hope that those two points aren't already gone.

prediction: Dante with 63%

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: polarisflash | Posted: 7/27/2003 3:17:34 PM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted by a GameFAQs Moderator]

From: DebonairBassman | Posted: 7/27/2003 3:20:00 PM | Message Detail

Cyko = Genious... I love this topic but rarely throw in my 2 cents, but I probly will more often... I just heard about Solar's contest so I decided, what the heck, count me in!
---
My life is complete. I met Pnut. Personally.
-GAMEFAQS Psychiatrist and friend of all-

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/27/2003 3:34:22 PM | Message Detail

Who talked about this topic getting busier and busier? Hehehe, maybe my topic-killing powers are strong enough to take down this one. This could also be why I can't gather a good amount of votes for my All-Star tournament, aside from Samberdog's extraordinary tiebreaking powers, which might just be asked tonight again.

Enough with the cheap plugs... on to the review.

Match #27 Review

This match truly gives a definition of has-been... if you look in the dictionary, you'll see a picture of Duke. Both are old... no, ancient characters, yet one still holds the spotlight after all these years. Comparing Ryu's performance against Duke to Alucard's last year, it's obvious that Ryu has even less problem with the master of ripped-off one-liners. Assuming he gets past Dante (which he probably will), his big match in round 3 will be against a weaker opponent than Cloud (still an Alucard comparison). Could he possibly... defeat Snake and be the ultimate bracket-buster this year? (Seems to be the department of fighting characters, after Scorpion last year.) I don't think so, but like Bowser and Yoshi, the opportunity's great for an upset.

Match #28 Preview

If Dante wishes to beat Ryu, he'll have to TROUNCE Ryo. Lara failed to get 60% last year against this common opponent, and seeing how Dante did better against Crono than Lara, he'll need 65-70% just to maintain his level of competitiveness from last year! It obviously won't be enough to take down Ryu, so the target could be set between 70 and 75%... a score he barely managed to reach against Q*Bert last year. Unlike last year, Dante has a potential hindrance in DMC2. Fox showed that one dud didn't affect much, as long as there was something else to fall on. Dante has less room than Fox in this department: one good game (the original DMC), that's all. Can he do it?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 24/26, 0 lost . . . . . T-125 (460-way)
Today's pick: Ryu

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/27/2003 3:35:39 PM | Message Detail

Bar the first part of my post... while I was typing it, a bajillion posts appeared out of thin air.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 24/26, 0 lost . . . . . T-125 (460-way)
Today's pick: Ryu

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/27/2003 3:48:28 PM | Message Detail

My god.....I can see it now...

MEGA MAN 95%
MR. RESETTI 5%

:0

Mega Man, you are the ****!

=P

OK...as I stated in my Prophet Challenge preview, if Dante doesn't kick Ryo's ass REPEADETLY! Ryu is gonna win next round.

Ryu is taking Duke back to skool, right now.

As for DK/Vyse, part of me is thinking Vyse will win this....but I picked DK...so....DK it is.
But Vyse winning wouldn't be so bad and would actually be a welcome suprise.

I just started playing Skies of Arcadia Legends for GCN and it's DAMN FUN!
---
MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti
(4)Dante vs (13)Ryo Hazuki (24/27 pts.)

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/27/2003 3:50:23 PM | Message Detail

Oh..... and great job EVERYONE for the stat gathering and reviews/previews.

Very interesting to read and this topic is nice because it actually DEVOTES to stats and discussion without the flames and garbage that is on the boards now. A place to rest the weary!
XD

And besides, I don't need to complement solarshadow. He knows he's appreciated.
---
MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti
(4)Dante vs (13)Ryo Hazuki (24/27 pts.)

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/27/2003 5:11:29 PM | Message Detail

Knuckles vs. Yuna: I managed to get myself into a lose/lose situation with this one: I put Knux on my bracket, then changed my mind and bet $800 on Yuna in Ringworm's betting contest. I may have won the single contest point...but since my perfect first round's already gone, I think I'd have rather had the fictional $800. >_< It was nice to see one of the fabled close matches actually be close, though, even if it wasn't THAT close. Sonic's team is looking even stronger than it did last year; could Sonic edge past Cloud after all...?

Ryu vs. Duke: Just to continue my recent string of negativity: ...how unpopular must Iori really be to lose by 14,000 votes to Duke Nukem. =P Other than that, though, this match is nothing but positives for me--I'll always enjoy seeing Duke get stomped, particularly by another fighting game character. (Vengeance! We must have vengeance! *grins*) I'll have to agree with most people in saying that Dante better have a really strong showing against Ryo if he wants to beat Ryu; Ryu's definitely proved himself as a second-tier player with this one. I don't think Alucard looks much worse, though--Duke's a year older now, after all, and his last game (Project Manhattan) came out just before last year's contest. Meaning he may have actually been riding a small wave of hype last time around....

From: cyko | Posted: 7/28/2003 6:30:06 AM | Message Detail

Top 10 Vote Getters

1. Cloud Strife- 94086
2. Link- 92998
3. Sephiroth- 90364
4. Mario- 89189
5. Crono- 88469
6. Solid Snake- 84638
7. Samus Aran- 81123
8. Bowser- 74164
9. Sonic- 73484
10. Zero- 70885

Top 10 Most Pathetic Characters (Least Votes)

1. Aiai- 8802
2. Captain Olimar- 11678
3. CATS- 14168
4. Tom Nook- 14631
5. Raiden- 17480
6. Raziel- 19838
7. Ratchet- 24099
8. Ness- 24627
9. Isaac- 26560
10. Duke Nukem- 28995

Top 10 Blowouts (Biggest Vote Difference)

1. Link over Aiai- 84196
2. Cloud over Cats- 79918
3. Mario over Captain Olimar- 77511
4. Crono over Tom Nook- 73838
5. Sephiroth over Raziel- 70526
6. Solid Snake over Raiden- 67158
7. Samus over Isaac- 54563
8. Bowser over Ness- 49537
9. Luigi over Ratchet- 46451
10. Sonic over Ken- 40338

Top 10 Closest Matches

1. Ganondorf over Tidus- 1582
2. Kefka over Pac-Man- 1773
3. Master Chief over Felix- 6318
4. Max Payne over Gordon Freeman- 7284
5. Knuckles over Yuna- 10832
6. Kirby over Ramza- 15380
7. Squall over Jill- 19118
8. KOS-MOS over Crash Bandicoot- 23631
9. Zero over Scorpion- 28969
10. Alucard over Bomberman- 29318

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers

1. Tidus- 57078
2. Felix- 50231
3. Pac-Man- 45905
4. Yuna- 45531
5. Ramza- 42482
6. Gordon Freeman- 41997
7. Scorpion- 41916
8. Tails- 38685
9. Jill Valentine- 38274
10. Crash Bandicoot- 37510

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners

1. Kefka- 47678
2. Max Payne- 49281
3. Knuckles- 56363
4. Master Chief- 56549
5. Squall- 57392
6. Kirby 57862
7. Ganondorf- 58660
8. Magus- 60598
9. KOS-MOS- 61141
10. Yoshi- 61421

Top 10 Biggest Vote Totals

1. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 115738
2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 112801
3. Sephiroth vs. Raziel- 110202
4. Auron vs. Tails- 108884
5. Cloud vs. CATS- 108254
6. Samus vs. Isaac- 107683
7. Master Chief vs. Felix- 106780
8. Sonic vs. Ken- 106630
9. Wario vs. Shadow the Hedgehog- 104607
10. Crono vs. Tom Nook- 103100

Top 10 Smallest Vote Totals

1. Gordon Freeman vs. Max Payne- 91278
2. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 91464
3. Yoshi vs. Conker- 92418
4. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 93583
5. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 94649
6. Squall vs. Jill Valentine- 95666
7. Ryu vs. Duke Nukem- 96408
8. Sora vs. Aeris- 97810
9. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 98651
10. Bowser vs. Ness- 98791

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Pick (Based on Number of Correct Contest Entries)

1. Link vs. Aiai- 99.1%
2. Mario vs. Captain Olimar- 98.0%
3. Cloud vs. CATS- 94.9%
4. Sephiroth vs. Raziel- 93.9%
5. Samus vs. Isaac- 93.8%
6. Crono vs. Tom Nook- 92.8%
7. Solid Snake vs. Raiden- 92.6%
8. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 87.9%
9. Sonic vs. Ken- 84.4%
10. Kirby vs. Ramza- 80.0%

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Pick

1. Wario vs. Shadow the Hedgehog- 42.1%
2. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 42.5%
3. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 43.5%
4. Zero vs. Scorpion- 47.3%
5. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 47.7%
6. Knuckles vs. Yuna- 50.2%
7. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 56.9%
8. Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud- 57.4%
9. Auron vs. Tails- 60.7%
10. Squall vs. Jill Valentine- 62.1%

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/28/2003 4:54:40 PM | Message Detail

Match #28 Review

Seems Dante whipped out the big artillery for this match! I did definitely not expect such a crushing from him... he now has a shot at the Sweet 16 and at taking two points from my bracket. It seems as though he's even more powerful than last year... I don't think too many people thought it would happen when filling their brackets. Can he take down Ryu? All of a sudden, he's heading into this match as a favorite. Not heavy, but favorite anyway. But in all close matches, we have to ask the question... how much did Ryu voters and Dante voters overlap? How will their votes split in the next round? It's going to be interesting, as the fighting genre isn't that popular here.

Match #29 Preview

He's the leader of the bunch, you know him well! But that sure didn't help against Aya Brea, in a match that is now a big part of the legacy of the Summer Contest. Now he's facing another RPG character, Vyse. Arrrr! The pirate can defeat the monkey, BUT... once again, the problem of overlapping fanbases comes up. Skies of Arcadia debuted on the dying Dreamcast, then was ported to the Gamecube. However, Nintendites will be more likely to back DK, eating some potential votes from Vyse. Aya didn't have that problem last year: she's on Playstation. Back to DK... Is he bigger, faster, and stronger too? Probably not, as his last appearance in a non-spinoff game is DK64... a dud. However, Fox and Dante proved it's no problem when you have something to make up for it. Therefore, I can call the first member of the DK crew as the winner, but in a rather close match - he got only 63% against Bub...
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 25/27, 0 lost . . . . . T-109 (419-way)
Today's pick: Dante

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/28/2003 8:54:01 PM | Message Detail

1 - Solid Snake - 84638 / 82.88% (102118) - 38004 / 92.6%
16 - Raiden - 17480 / 17.12% (102118) - 3055 / 7.4%

8 - Knuckles the Echidna - 56363 / 55.32% (101894) - 20620 / 50.2%
9 - Yuna - 45531 / 44.68% (101894) - 20439 / 49.8%

5 - Ryu - 67413 / 69.92% (96408) - 29696 / 72.3%
12 - Duke Nukem - 28995 / 30.08% (96408) - 11363 / 27.7%

Well, I guess Knuckles was able to beat Yuna after all. I thought FF would save her, but it just wasn't enough. I believe this is the closest split we've ever had with the prediction percentage. Only 181 more people picked Knux than Yuna (out of 41059). Nice.

And Dante's sure looking impressive. After last year's performance I didn't expect much out of him. Is this his popularity surge or Ryo's decline? If he's actually gained a significant amount of popularity it could make for an interesting match against Ryu. Still looks like Ryu will win though.

Oh, and what happened with Snake's blowout? I thought it was supposed to be of record-breaking proportions? Raiden somehow managed to not look completely silly. Which means AiAi's still the front-runner for the Ms. Pac-Man Memorial Award. ;)

Solar your contest sounds like a good idea. I don't think I'll do too well though, I'm awful at guessing percentages. Is it going to be cumulative like Ringworm's or less exclusive like MMX's? I like the betting and the ongoing contest... but they both have their pros and cons.

My intention was to make it cumulative. Which means I'll need to get as many people as possible to sign up at the beginning. Also, I'm considering a bonus each match for the closest guess, but I'm not quite sure how that will work yet.

If you do it, definitely have us predict to two decimal places, and have a rule like MMX on not being able to guess the same number.

Two decimal places is a go, but I'm not sure about restricting guesses. Since I intend to make the scores cumulative, having people guess the same number now and then shouldn't be a big deal. Plus, it will be a lot more work checking for duplicates because of the format.

I don't have any data on how people were doing, score-wise, thru the 1st round of last year's contest. Solarshadow's site has data for each match, but I couldn't find any stuff about scores partially thru the contest. If anyone knows where to get such data, let me know.

The only thing I've got left relating to this is the final table on the contest averages page (http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/avg.html). I no longer have any of the score breakdowns saved, which I very much regret.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Ringworm | Posted: 7/28/2003 8:59:04 PM | Message Detail

Your contest sounds interesting. I'll sign up (even though I'm struggling with MMXCalibur's lately. Dunno how I'm still leading it).
---
Everyone that says ''There's no such thing as a stupid question'', has obviously never visited this board.
Match 29 tip: DK

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/28/2003 9:00:23 PM | Message Detail

P.S. Another new poll is up on the stats site (an interesting one I hope). Vote soon, because it might not be up long. I think that's it for now. I've been working a bit on some of the other sections of the site, so things should start appearing here and there in the next little while. Also, the Oracle Challenge will hopefully start tomorrow.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: EvilNcr | Posted: 7/28/2003 9:24:15 PM | Message Detail

Well, as someone mentioned. Ryo is from a Xbox rpg (and was from the dying dreamcast too i think). Shenmue was much less popular than DMC and it pretty much unknown to many voters. And Dante is well-liked.

Though, the overlapping appeared because Dante's fresh on people's mind to a similar degree(and probably more) than Ryo.
So while I didn't expect that blowout either, it's understandable and I still stand firm my convictions on Ryu vs Dante.

Ryu got 40% against Samus I think while Dante got 33% against Crono. We all know how legend characters perform...
---
The Reaper is always a step behind you ncr...

From: cyko | Posted: 7/29/2003 6:43:26 AM | Message Detail

cyko's Match 28 Review

Dante vs. Ryo Hazuki

well, dang. i thought that Dante would really have to bring it this round to stand a chance against Ryu next round, and bring it he did. that accidental Dante pick in round 2 doesn't look so painful anymore. Dante's huge blowout still may not prove too much, since Ryo really isn't much competition and there probably were a lot of people voting for both Ryu and Dante (they are both Capcom characters, after all).this will be a good round 2 match.

cyko's Match 29 P/Review

Donkey Kong vs. Vyse

i know it's early, but DK is already in control with a 7000 vote lead. not impressive by any means, but good enough against an rpg character. you didn't honestly think Vyse would win, did you? of course not. Aya Brea couldn't quite take the gorilla and she had Square on her side and the hot chick thing pushing her; two factors that Vyse doesn't have. Skies of Arcadia just isn't mainstream enough for Vyse to make a strong prescence in this contest. i was looking for this match to be similar to Kirby vs. Ramza (mid-grade Nintendo character against a lesser-known rpg character), but its looking like DK should be able to beat Kirby's numbers. but it's not looking godd for DK next round. if Tommy proves that his following is as huge as the game he is from, the Kong is as good as dead.

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: steve illumina | Posted: 7/29/2003 7:51:04 AM | Message Detail

Sign me up for solarshadow's contest as well! Is it starting with Link vs Fox in Round 2?

Considering this bracket is laden with blowouts, Lara vs Zelda is lookin more and more interesting is it not? I had picked Lara to take this one due to name and character recognition over Zelda, who has only been playable in one game, Super Smash Brothers Melee, and has changed appearance too much over the years in the backstory of the Zelda games. But all this negative press on Gamespot and otherwise about the lackluster movie opening (4th behind Spy Kids, Bad Boys & Pirates) and the average PS2 game is not going to help either. This is shaping up to be close..too close for comfort.

Though Mega Man will dispatch either of them in round 2...

---
~Steve Illumina~ Contest Score: 22/28
Offical Sephiroth Supporter: Summer Contest 2003

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/29/2003 1:46:18 PM | Message Detail

4 - Dante - 74068 / 77.65% (95384) - 34300 / 83.5%
13 - Ryo Hazuki - 21316 / 22.35% (95384) - 6759 / 16.5%

A big victory for Dante, although due to the low voter turnout (the 6th lowest) his total votes don't put him in the same league as the big boys. Not that we expect him to be a top-tier character. But it's nice to see him put up a decent showing after last year's mediocre performance. I think it's fair to say he won't make it past the second round again though.

Stats site news: A new section has opened. I finally got around to starting the First Round Full Lists (it's a lot more work when I'm not keeping up with it daily... I should've learned that last year). And yes it's ugly, and will remain that way until the end of the first round (just like last year). Hopefully King Morgoth will be around to help with the formatting again this year, since he saved me hours of work last year (for which I am deeply grateful). So, with that section up, Top 10 Lists can't be far behind. The Contest Averages section should appear at the end of the round. Don't forget to vote in the new poll.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/29/2003 4:28:15 PM | Message Detail

Oracle Challenge Update:
The Oracle Challenge (aka the Prophetic Percentage Prediction Challenge) has started and can be found at this link:
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9246055

Entries can be made at any time. The first match will indeed be Link vs. Fox, so you'll need to have predicted that match sometime before its poll starts to qualify for the first set of points. There is no deadline to enter the contest, but obviously you'll do better the more matches you predict so you'll want to get in as soon as possible. :)

Note: I would be willing to count any percentage predictions you make in this topic, to save you the trouble of posting in two places. Please inform me if you wish to use this method of entering. I reserve the right to post your picks in the other topic if it needs bumping. ;)
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: DebonairBassman | Posted: 7/29/2003 4:29:29 PM | Message Detail

very cool idea solar
---
My life is complete. I met Pnut. Personally.
-GAMEFAQS Psychiatrist and friend of all-

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/29/2003 4:35:36 PM | Message Detail

very cool idea solar

Thank you, kind sir.

And besides, I don't need to complement solarshadow. He knows he's appreciated.

Yes, but he has a hungry ego and he can't feed it alone! ... Just kidding. ;)
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/29/2003 4:44:08 PM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/29/2003 4:46:16 PM | Message Detail

Match #29 Review

DK's finally back to kick some tail! The weird part? Vyse is doing as good as BUB last year! I was extremely pleased (and surprised) at the results when I first saw them. Could have DK gained some steam since last year? Maybe, maybe not. But still, it would be interesting to compare how many people played Skies of Arcadia to Parasite Eve. Could anyone provide sales numbers for these games? It would be a good point of comparison, although it's not always meaningful (see Pikachu). The future looks a little brighter for the big primate, but he's still going to have an incredibly hard time against his next opponent...

Match #30 Preview

The biggest wildcard in this tournament gets his chance to show what he's got very, very late in round 1. He's taking on Kite from .hack fame. From what I hear, .hack is actually 1 game in 4... meaning one must shell out 200$ (or even more if, like me, you're living on the wrong end of the border) for the complete thing. Some call it a total rip-off, which could drive voters who know Kite away from him. That and GTA:VC is one of the most sold games EVAR. What can Vercetti do tomorrow? An absolute blowout, or a victory of lesser proportions? If he doesn't impress, his chances will fall to zero against Megaman, and he'll even have trouble against DK. But, should he destroy Kite and move on to defeat Megaman... the tournament could very well be over. Basically, just like Master Chief's match, this will show if he's going nowhere or somewhere.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 26/28, 0 lost . . . . . T-103 (403-way)
Today's pick: DK

From: cyko | Posted: 7/29/2003 6:28:47 PM | Message Detail

finally got around to starting the First Round Full Lists (it's a lot more work when I'm not keeping up with it daily... I should've learned that last year). So, with that section up, Top 10 Lists can't be far behind.

awwwww....dang. i guess that means my days as self-appointed list-keeper are numbered. =(

cyko's Match 30 Preview

Tommy Vercetti vs. Kite

now we arrive to the biggest question mark character of the tournament: Tommy Vercetti. he represents one of the most popular, best-selling games of all time: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City. but unfortunately, he suffers from Gordon Freeman Syndrome (or GFS); which is that he comes from a popular, well-received game, but not everyone (even people who have played the game) still don't know who he is. he does make his identity known more than the nameless main character of GTA3, but honestly, how many fans of Grand Theft Auto really care about the characters or the story? most people play the game to shoot people and steal police cars and tanks that you can run things over with; not to get sucked into the story. and we all know how well action characters do on gamefaqs compared to rpg characters (see Master Chief). so this match will be a bit of gauge to see how many fans Vercetti has gathered, or if most GTA fans don't recognize him or care enough to vote.

fortunately for Vercetti, his first match is against a kite. okay, maybe it's not actually a kite, but i'd bet that a kite could get as many votes as Kite will. he is an rpg character, which does help, but he is the most obscure rpg character in this tourney. and he's not even a likable character or from a decent game. to inform you about who or what Kite is, here are some Possible Spoilers. he is the main character of the boring, repetitive Dot Hack rpg series, the first of which i like to call .crap\\refund.

actually, he's not even the main character. Kite is the main character's online identity, which you play as most of the game in an online game called "The World". supposedly a few years from now, The World is the best selling game of all time with over 10,000,000 registered users. now i know video games aren't necessarily supposed to be realistic, but this game has plotholes big enough to drive a semi-truck through. it's ridiculous! first of all, there are only four main cities in "The World" and at any given moment, there are about twenty or thirty users wandering around each city. and you rarely encounter any other user in the random, repetitive leveling up areas between cities. now tell me, where are the other 9,999,000 other registered users? oh, that's right, they are off-line, playing better games than this pile. to make things more idiotic, in the beginning of the game, the main character's best friend goes into a coma while playing "The World" and how do you respond? by staying by his side in the hospital? alerting the authorities about the possible conspiracy you suspect? no, you go back online and try to find out what happened to him by playing The World some more. *groaaaan* ugh.

i could go into more detail on the lameness of this game, but it doesn't get any better the more you play it and this post is already way too long. but tell me, if you ran a huge video game corporation with conspiracies to rule the world and some kid discovered your true intentions, would you find out where the kid is and make his death look like an "accident"? or do you battle him online for world supremacy? guess which route Dot Crap takes. give me a break.

*whew* sorry about that anti-Kite rant, but he really is a worthless character. anywho, where was i? oh, yeah- so Vercetti will definitely defeat Kite even if everyone who loves GTA doesn't vote for him. we really won't be able to determine his true strength until he faces Donkey Kong.

prediction: Tommy Vercetti with 81.42%

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: NT220 | Posted: 7/29/2003 7:39:03 PM | Message Detail

Dante vs. Ryo

Yep, blowout for Dante. Notice, though, how utterly pathetic this makes Lara look. The Tomb Raider defeated Ryo with a paltry 60% of the vote last year, a modest total compared to Dante's 75-25 blowout. Does that, coupled with Dante actually getting more votes than Lara against Crono last year, actually suggest that Lara < Dante? If so, I can rest better having picked Zelda over her in the first round...

I had never given much thought to Dante vs. Ryu - I had always thought that fighting games were far past their prime on GameFAQs, and that the stylish Dante shouldn't have much trouble getting the support. Imagine my surprise when I found out Ryu was actually the favored one on this board! Well, I do suppose that Ryo is a lot less popular than Duke Nukem, but I don't really think that DMC2 is really going to drag down Dante's popularity as much as people say it will. When you're just that cool, a minor trifle such as a universally panned game won't hurt you :-)

So I enter the second round still cautiously optimistic about my chances at this match. Wouldn't be surprised at two more points going down the crapper, though.
---
"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/29/2003 9:01:38 PM | Message Detail

What can Vercetti do tomorrow? An absolute blowout, or a victory of lesser proportions? If he doesn't impress, his chances will fall to zero against Megaman, and he'll even have trouble against DK. But, should he destroy Kite and move on to defeat Megaman... the tournament could very well be over. Basically, just like Master Chief's match, this will show if he's going nowhere or somewhere.

This pretty much sums up my feelings on Vercetti. He's gotta do well against Kite to have a chance, and a really close match would mean doom at the hands of Mega Man (or even DK). But as cyko says, this shouldn't be the match that tells us the true strength of Vercetti. He should take this one by default. If he doesn't, that'll be another story. But if he does, we'll have to wait until his battle with DK to really get an idea of how popular he is around here (not that DK's the best measuring stick, but he did take down Aya, so he's a few notches above Kite for sure).
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/30/2003 1:29:47 AM | Message Detail

Hopefully King Morgoth will be around to help with the formatting again this year

You're doing such an incredible job collecting all those stats and analyzing them, the least I can do is help a little...

http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth
Both a cheap plug for my "Prediction Accuracy Based on Score" stats and a link to formatted First Round Full Lists and Top 10 Lists. Feel free to make comments if there are things you want me to change in the future, details, a different format or anything, as I made them identical to last year's tables.

Keep up with your great work solarshadow! (Three more days until the Oracle Challenge begins, I can't wait...)
---
"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
Current Points: 26/29

From: Cthulhu | Posted: 7/30/2003 4:28:20 AM | Message Detail

tracking post

From: creativename | Posted: 7/30/2003 2:10:13 PM | Message Detail

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/29/2003 9:01:38 PM
this shouldn't be the match that tells us the true strength of Vercetti.

Well, as it turns out, this match tells a whole lot about Vercetti. So far, a paltry 65.97% against a weakling like Kite? That's awful. All of a sudden, even a chump monkey like Donkey Kong is looking like stiff competition.

I would venture to say that a huge portion of Kite's votes are actually Vercetti anti-votes--as hardcore an RPG gamer as I am, even I had never heard of Kite before this contest. As mentioned before, he's the weakest RPG competitor here. Vercetti just isn' likeable though. Yeah, he's the villain, and being a villain is supposed to give you the bad-ass factor--but that's only with "cool" villains, such as the dark, brooding, complicated type. Not a greedy, horny, murderous mafioso. He's just not interesting enough a character.

Even though I (like many) thought that Vercetti was being given too much attention, and that he would be completely blown out by Mega Man, Kite's 35% is the highest possible amount I thought he could get--I was expecting 25%-35%, with very low odds on 35%. Vercetti's basically looking as weak as he could.

Which, of course, begs the question: Who would win, Tommy Vercetti vs. Master Chief?
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: creativename | Posted: 7/30/2003 2:14:55 PM | Message Detail

One more thing: Vercetti appears to be suffering from the "Wario pic syndrome" here--he just looks fat and ugly. However, if Vercetti has to resort to using his pic as an excuse for a poor performance against Kite (whose pic is pretty decent), that's pretty pathetic. Vercetti is toast.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 7/30/2003 2:26:02 PM | Message Detail

Kite's pic is decent? He looks like a forest imp from 8-bit theater (FF1, for those not in the know).
I don't think Tommy can even claim the desperate "I got a lousy pic" defense, because his opponent wasn't very photogenic either.

Part of me hopes Vercetti looks better for his next round match against DK, as that might give us some insight on how important a picture really is.
---
"You think you're right, but you know you're wrong." -- My friend, master debater

From: Team Aqua Elite | Posted: 7/30/2003 2:45:58 PM | Message Detail

Who would win, Tommy Vercetti vs. Master Chief?

Vercetti. Lesser of two evils.
---
One Poké to rule them all,...and in the drizzle bind them.
In the land of Hoenn where the downpour lies.

Jump to Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10