Stats & Discussion - Summer
2003 Contest |
| | Page 6 of 10 | | | |
From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 7/23/2003 12:46:20 AM | Message
Detail |
I've been collecting stats for a few matches now
and I think they are ready to be released. I have made tables
showing the correct prediction percentage based on what was the
entrants' score before each match, if enough data was made available
(I need the score distribution both before and after a match to
calculate the percentages, and CJayC has missed a couple of updates
so some matches are missing) Enough confused talk, on with the
stats and some fast analysis. The stats page that I will update
nightly is right
there:
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth
Match #12
- Yoshi vs Conker At first, I thought that all matches would
pretty much look the same, with the elite being 10-15% more accurate
than the average, and the rest of the entrants being less and less
accurate as their scores were going down. Not at all. The top
five groups were all equally accurate ±1%, which was quite
surprising IMO
Match #13 - Sora vs Aeris Gainsborough This
match looked exactly as I thought they would all look like, where
higher scores had higher accuracy. Nice comeback by the 3's who
scored better than both the 4's, 5's and 6's
Match #16 -
Sonic the Hedgehog vs Ken After CJayC's 2 days break, I finally
had new stats to collect. Surprisingly (am I the only one who's
surprised by such results? I hope not), everyone seemed to be
equally accurate, pretty much like in Match #13
Match #17 -
Mario vs Captain Olimar Everyone is pretty near 100%, no
surprises here
Match #18 - Wario vs Shadow the
Hedgehog This is where things get weird. This match was such an
upset that the group with the lowest accuracy of the entire
scoreboard was....the perfects!!! Scoring a sad 33,62%, every other
group has been more accurate than them, if we exclude our perfect
zeros.
Match #19 - Pac-Man vs Kefka The perfects managed
to be two times as accurate as the average in what is, IMO
surprisingly, a prediction upset. The top brackets had, in majority,
Kefka winning, while the lower brackets mostly had Pac-Man
winning
Match #22 - Kirby vs Ramza Beoulve The masses are
coming back! While the elite scored a 60-70% accuracy, the average
brackets all scored 85-93% of their possible points! The elite had
seen Kefka's victory coming, but it seems that this time, being
"average" was a good thing!
Finally, nice work Solar and
everyone else who's been making this topic one if not the most
interesting, useful and sane place to stay on this
board! --- "Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those
who wander are lost" Current Points: 18/20 |
From: NT220
| Posted: 7/23/2003 5:00:49 AM | Message
Detail |
Kirby vs. Ramza
To be honest, I
didn't give this match much thought when I was choosing my own
bracket. Sure, it wasn't a totally brainless decision, but it
certainly didn't keep me agonizing for days like Tidus vs. Ganondorf
and Yuna vs. Knuckles did. Hell, I had more trouble deciding who
would win between Kirby and Alucard than deciding on this
one.
So I was actually pretty surprised that this became one
of the most hyped first-round matches even before the contest.
Initially in the analysis topics the commentators were split pretty
evenly between favoring Ramza and Kirby, but when the contest
started and Tidus lost by an extremely narrow margin to Ganondorf,
the scale began distinctively tippint in favor of Ramza. Then came
Jill's loss to Squall, and practically everyone was convinced that
Ramza will win. Hell, I was convinced and had regarded it a
lost point before the North division even ended!
With the
benefit of hindsight, though, I shouldn't have been so easily
convinced. The main rationale for Ramza winning was that Jill >
Kirby last year, Squall > Jill this year, and that Ramza is at
least equal to Squall. Therefore, Ramza > Jill >
Kirby.
The problem is that Jill this year has nowhere
near the popularity of Jill last year. REmake was probably
the most hyped release of early 2001, its FAQ page being the
most visited on GameFAQs for several weeks. Even better for Jill, it
happened to be on the GCN, therefore taking valuable Nintendo votes
from Kirby. This year, on the other hand, Resident Evil's popularity
is on the downturn. The recent games were quite lackluster, and we
know nearly as little about RE4 as we did last year. When Jill faced
Kirby, it was Jill who performed strongly, not Kirby who performed
weakly.
So Kirby vs. Ramza... From what I've heard, Ramza
probably isn't even the most memorable character in FFT - that would
be Delita or maybe Orlandu (the latter for battle prowess rather
than genuine character development, but meh). Also, more
importantly, Kirby isn't quite popular enough to generate anti-votes
- but definitely popular enough to get most of the Nintendo vote.
Ramza isn't well-known enough to sway Nintendo voters, as FFT was
PlayStation-only and FFT Advance is still quite far on the horizon.
For the casual voter, Ramza is a generic guy with no nose, lacking
both anime-ish coolness and realistic badassness (ugh, can't believe
I actually typed that word). Kirby may be distinctively kiddy, but
at least he's memorable. Ramza was able to secure the Square vote,
but that didn't turn out to be enough.
Interestingly, this
wasn't anything near an upset for the casual voter, as more than
four-fifth of brackets correctly had Kirby winning. That, coupled
with Kefka's win actually being an upset according the the brackets,
seriously makes me question the so-called Square support outside of
FF7~10 and Crono (yes, Crono. Not Chrono
Trigger). --- "The surest sign of intelligent life outside
Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 7/23/2003 6:08:15 AM | Message
Detail |
Why not Magus? He did as well against Sam Fisher
as Crono did against Dante, and the approximate equality of these
two opponents isn't too far-fetched.
And I just looked at the
stats... 37% had Bomberman winning his match!
WTF? --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . .
19/21, 0 lost . . . . . T-347 (1071-way) Today's pick:
Max |
From: NT220
| Posted: 7/23/2003 7:47:45 AM | Message
Detail |
I say that mainly because less than 60% of
brackets had Magus beating Sam - that is, in the minds of the
general populace, Fox over Pikachu is less of an
upset. This suggests that relatively few people know who Magus is -
on this board, at least, Magus over Sam is a complete
no-brainer.
Magus's 2:1 ratio against Sam doesn't really
impress me. Aeris, Auron, and Alucard (heh, the three A's) all
posted similar numbers against similar opponents - you could say
that Aeris's margin over Sora was due to the double-Square factor,
but there is no way I'm going to accept that Sam is more popular
than Tails. Bomberman is probably slightly scrubbier than Sam, but
he's not too far off.
Crono did post a similar margin against
Dante, but the Crono fanboy train didn't start gathering last year
until his match against Lara. I still think Magus will beat
Ganondorf, but I don't think the margin is going to be high. I
definitely don't view him as a threat to Link as I did
before.
I must say, though, that Vercetti and Zero worry me.
Vercetti could bomb out against DK in round 2 (extremely unlikely,
but DK will have the entire Nintendo vote at his side) or go
all the way up to Mario/Crono/Sephiroth in the semis. Zero... if he
knocks off Sonic, my bracket will be in shambles as I have Sonic
going to the quarters. --- "The surest sign of intelligent
life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us"
~Calvin |
From: NT220
| Posted: 7/23/2003 7:51:13 AM | Message
Detail |
Ugh, my Kirby vs. Ramza analysis had tons of
errors. "Tippint" in the third line of the second paragraph should
be "tipping", and REmake was one of the most hyped releases of
2002, not 2001. --- "The surest sign of intelligent
life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us"
~Calvin |
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 7/23/2003 4:54:50 PM | Message
Detail |
Personally, I don't go with the picks to
determine whether a character is good or not, but with the polls
themselves. Going by your logic, Morrigan was weak-ass last year,
yet she smashed Spyro more than 70-30, and only 42% of the entrants
had it correct. Plus, she got a third of the vote against
Mario...
I'm curious... when you refer to the "Crono fanboy
train", do you only think of this board? Because at least 75% of the
voters don't come here. So I don't think it has much of an
impact.
As for Tails, I have no problem seeing him less
popular than Fisher, since not only is Tails not cool anymore and
way past his prime, unlike Sonic and Knuckles, but his role in SA2
turned many people away from him.
Match #23
Review
Despite the results, I still stand by my belief
that a game won't have any impact until it's released, and I could
even say it takes some time after that. The hype surrounding SMS
didn't exactly help Mario last year, as it took the infamous PGC
intervention to take down Cloud, and the incredible stupidity of a
Crono cheater to get past Crono. Therefore, I agree with the guy who
said on another topic that Gordon would have this match in the
pocket had the match occured after HL2's release.
What does
it say about Max Payne? That he's below TINA FREAKIN' ARMSTRONG in
popularity. Of course, when nobody cares about the characters, the
influence of TJF is arguably greater. But when you can only count on
the jugs to win... Granted, Max scored a blowout against Dirk last
year, but hey, it's Dirk. (Kirby was ranked below THAT? WTF?) Now
that he faces a semi-half-decent character (and maybe that's STILL
too generous), we see what he's worth... nothing. No wonder the
margin of victory is so slim.
Match #24
Preview
No top-tier character is getting a bye as big as
Sephiroth this year. First in line is Raziel, who lost to Strider in
the closest match of round 1 last year, and Strider got wasted by
Link. Take someone just below Link and someone just below Strider,
and you should get about the same results. However, the top
characters seem to crush their competition by even more than last
year... if this trend maintains, Raziel could fail to gather 20% of
the vote. My prediction would be Sephiroth,
82-18. --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . .
. 20/22, 0 lost . . . . . T-347 (1071-way) Today's pick:
Max |
From: creativename
| Posted: 7/23/2003 8:03:12 PM | Message
Detail |
King Morgoth, I'd just like to say that your
stats are THE #1 most interesting thing I've seen in this
entire thread. I was thinking of doing the same thing a few days
ago, but since I didn't have the stats from the beginning I decided
against it; plus, I was a little lazy about it. Big-time kudos to
you on this. Great, great stuff. Hope you have the time to keep it
up.
I say that mainly because less than 60% of brackets
had Magus beating Sam - that is, in the minds of the general
populace, Fox over Pikachu is less of an upset.
You seem
to forget that few of the brackets had Crono going anywhere last
year either. Most probably had him being ousted by Lara, and
certainly very few had him beating Snake.
Character support
cannot be gauged properly by looking at brackets, especially in the
case of a characters whose fanbase is more "hardcore" and
"old-school". There are some cases where all the brackets combined
are better at predicting than the "experts" (or consensus on this
board), however usually they are significantly worse (e.g., KOS-MOS
vs. Crash).
Magus's 2:1 ratio against Sam doesn't really
impress me. Aeris, Auron, and Alucard (heh, the three A's) all
posted similar numbers against similar opponents
Sam
Fisher is definitely more impressive than Bomberman, and probably
moreso than Tails as well. There can be little doubt that Magus
>> Alucard.
Because at least 75% of the voters don't
come here. So I don't think it has much of an
impact.
Yeah, 75% is a convservative number there...most
likely it's much higher (say, 85%-90%). These boards clearly have
virtually no impact on the outcomes of these matches. The only case
where there was even any indication of this board existing was the
first 90 seconds of CATS vs. Cloud, where CATS was actually
winning...but of course Cloud was blowing CATS out within 5 minutes
and ended up with 87%. --- Frog must be in the 2004 character
battle, if there is one. Remember to nominate Frog in
2004! |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 7/23/2003 10:19:19 PM | Message
Detail |
Continuing my tradition of neglecting things for
days, then catching up with it all in one too-long-to-read
shot:
Pac-Man vs. Kefka: Well, exactly what I didn't
want to happen happened. Pac-Man (the one I actually wanted to win)
went down, but he put up quite a fight--which means that Kefka won't
be, when the next round comes along. His turnout really is shocking,
and/or depressing; after Crono's success, I figured Kefka would do a
lot better--better than Scorpion, anyway. Kefka's not really less
popular than Scorpion at Gamefaqs, is he? Maybe the
pictures really do make a difference....
Crono vs.
Nook: After AC's victory over FF7 in the Great Game Contest, I
was starting to think Nook could do fairly well--20%, say. Not
quite. Crono's as popular as ever, and there's little doubt he'll
make it to Round 3 now. At least his Mario rematch will be fun to
watch.
Seijun: You may have a point about the new
voters being largely from PA (and thus largely Pac-Man fans). But I
still can't see Pac-Man being as strong as Crono, who just scored an
85% blowout. And all Crono needs is about a thousand more votes to
put down Kefka in the second round. I would still like to believe
your theory, however--if it's true, then at least Kefka could still
be more popular than Scorpion....
Ringworm's Stats:
While I probably believe in bracket-voters more than most, I tend to
think their biggest influences will be on A) the small-margin
matches and B) the people worth the most points. More middle-ground
matches, like Shadow vs. Wario, I'm less sure about. I also don't
believe there's many people that will exclusively vote for
their bracket. So the stats are interesting, but (as has been said
before) probably not too conclusive.
Alucard vs.
Bomberman: Went just as expected. Although Alucard did beat
Bomberman by a bigger margin than Jill, I'm not sure what that means
for Alucard/Kirby, since the margin wasn't THAT much bigger (and
Kirby could easily be more popular now). We'll see next
round.
Kirby vs. Ramza: Once again, one of the
most-hyped matches of the first round turns into a dud, margin-wise.
Kirby may not have proven himself a major Nintendo player
here--since Ramza's not exactly Cloud himself--but he showed he has
some power after all. The stage is set for another hard-to-pick
matchup in Alucard vs. Kirby; will it be another "dud," or will it
come down to the wire? (Then again, as Samberdog mentioned, 80% DID
pick Kirby to win, and they might've helped him get this margin; I
wonder how the picks will sway in Round 2....)
Day-Of-Week
Averages: Very interesting, creativename. Surprising to see
Friday outdoing Sunday in terms of votes--seems like more people
would be home on Sunday. The trend seems to be holding fairly true
this year, too; I guess that helps explain Pac-Man vs. Kefka (though
it was low even for a weekend poll, especially considering it was so
close).
Max vs. Gordon: Looks like the main effect of
the Half Life hype was to make it closer than it would've been last
year. (Or, at least, it's nice to assume Max would've beat
Tina Armstrong.) Predictable result; boring characters. Low turnout
(I think). Max won't make a dent in Round 2.
Next.
Sephiroth vs. Raziel: Let's just pray Sephiroth
doesn't get 90% of the vote. (Or at least, I should, since I
have Mario beating him... *looks around nervously*) |
From: MMXcalibur
| Posted: 7/23/2003 10:22:30 PM | Message
Detail |
Think about it...Max Payne is going to get
farther than Tidus, Pac-Man, Wario and Ramza. Wow.
Feel the
power of the crap matchup!!!!
And we get to the last duo of
blowouts...
Sephiroth will pwn.
Snake and Raiden is a
match I'm looking forward to...just to see if Snake really REALLY
owns Raiden in every aspect.....
--- MEGA MAN RD.
1: vs Mr. Resetti (2)Sephiroth vs (15)Raziel (21/23
pts.) |
From: NT220
| Posted: 7/24/2003 4:05:03 AM | Message
Detail |
Bleh, my computer just ate my long reply
regarding Magus. I'm not going to type the whole thing again, so
just the gist of it:
I admit I was too rash in dismissing
Magus's chances. I still disagree with Slowflake's listing of Magus
as a top tier (especially in Sonic's stead), but I probably did
underestimate him. My previous rationale was that he didn't have
enough name recognition, and 16-bit RPG support is overrated, unless
there's a good picture (see: Kefka), but I've realized that general
name recognition isn't that important in a contest like this and
that Magus does have a cool pic. Still don't see him being as strong
as Crono, but I did underestimate him.
I probably
underestimated Fisher, too, although I maintain that he is a "vogue"
character just like Kite and KOS-MOS (albeit a far more popular
vogue character). He was in mainly because he was fresh on people's
minds when the nominations were out. Similarly if we had nominations
last year we'd probably get people like Alexandra Roivas from
Eternal Darkness. If Splinter Cell doesn't get a new entry over the
holidays or early next year, don't expect to see him in the next
character battle.
Just an interesting question, though: how
do you think Frog would do if he were in the contest? Among CT fans
he's nearly as popular as Magus, and he probably won't get screwed
by an unrecognizable picture like Kefka did, but he won't appeal to
the casual gamer as much as Crono or Magus does. He'd probably be
the best indicator of 16-bit RPG support if he was
in. --- "The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is
that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
From: kawaiifan
| Posted: 7/24/2003 5:13:33 AM | Message
Detail |
First, today I finally found the time to read
through this entire thread. :) I would like to thank everyone
involved in compiling these stats and analysing the outcomes -- it's
a fascinating read.
One message that especially caught my
eye.... Creativename wrote, on page 4:
I used a very
simple recursive formula to rank each character in the tournament
last year, working backwards from the Link-Mario
final.
Believe it or not, I recently did the very same
thing, with the same formula. :) The only differences were that I
arbitrarily set Link's championship performance equal to a million
points, thus making Sephiroth's 765312, Mega Man's 749950, and so on
down to Mr. Driller's bringing up the rear at 46835; and another
difference was that you took greater care in putting together your
chart than I did with mine. I had rounded off any fractional parts,
to make calculating later characters' numbers more convenient, so
rounding errors probably accumulated in my results.
Our
method has the advantage of accounting for difficulty of opposition
faced; a character (e.g. Kirby, Claire, Squall) who loses to a
strong opponent in the first round, could well be more popular than
a character (e.g. Pacman, Lara) who knocks off two weak entrants,
thereby advancing to the round of sixteen, then proceeds to lose a
close match to a middling opponent or to get blown out by a strong
one. Unfortunately, if anything, our formula even overcompensates
... for example, Servbot ranked 30th out of the 64 (@.@) all because
of his not-as-bad-as-it-could-have-been defeat at the hands of
finalist Mario.
Solarshadow wrote, on page 18:
And
Master Chief vs. Felix was much closer than I'd expected. [...]
What's Master Chief doing at #3 again? Methinks Aeris would have
been more deserving of that spot.
I couldn't agree
more. Aeris turned in the 12th strongest performance last year,
meriting a 3 seed this year.
Someone told me that this year's
seeding was done strictly according to the number of nominations
that each character received. I feel that for next year, the seeding
might be somewhat more accurate if the characters' past performance
played some part in it as well. Aeris' and Crono's underseeding are
definite cases in point, as is Gordon's obvious overseeding. For
that matter, in my opinion Gordon shouldn't have even been invited
back, as was foretold by his performance last year having been the
56th strongest (9th weakest) out of all 64 entrants. Kirby is
also overseeded -- we Kirby fans wanted revenge for last year :) We
remembered, and overnominated our pink puffball accordingly. No way
is he a true 3 seed. Kirby would have essentially no chance heads-up
against Aeris ... and she's an 11 seed.
--- Supporting
Nakoruru (and her little sister Rimururu too!) for nomination in
2004!
|
From: creativename
| Posted: 7/24/2003 6:14:43 AM | Message
Detail |
Believe it or not, I recently did the very
same thing, with the same formula. :)
Awesome! I think
our method is not very accurate for predictions--for instance, Jill
vs. Squall and Alucard vs. Bomberman turned out waaay different than
they would have, if our model was predictive. However, I do consider
it a better way of measuring last year's performance than simply
going by how far the character advanced; in other words, it helps to
eliminate the luck factor. So I think this type of ranking--despite
its shortcomings--can be useful for seeding purposes.
Also,
while our model wasn't very good at predicting match-ups between two
people who were both here last year, I think it did show that that
Tidus was very under-rated on this board. I made a thread a while
back about how people under-rating Tidus was going to lead to a lot
of incorrect conclusions. The logic went like this:
*People
underestimate Tidus, and Ganon barely beat Tidus -->People
will underestimate Ganon *Magus vs. Ganon (let's assume Magus
wins for the moment) could be much closer than people think, because
Ganon is actually pretty strong. -->Thus, if/when Magus
doesn't convincingly beat Ganon, people will underestimate
Magus. *At this point, people might expect Link to annihilate
Magus--however, while Link will very likely win, it probably won't
be a complete mis-match. -->If Magus get around 40% of the
vote against Link, people will suddenly conclude Link is vulnerable.
This will lead people to overestimating Samus'
chances.
Anyway, I just thought that this is a nice way to
look at it, even though it's completely hypothetical and is assuming
a lot.
(bah, my post is too big...) --- Frog must be in
the 2004 character battle, if there is one. Remember to nominate
Frog in 2004! |
From: creativename
| Posted: 7/24/2003 6:18:15 AM | Message
Detail |
(continued)
Oh, and other stuff on our
model (it's good to have someone to talk with this about!): it shows
that Donkey Kong was extremely lucky last year. He advanced
to the Sweet 16, despite being only the 42nd strongest in the whole
tournament. While it has been shown our model is poor at
predictions, I do think that this means something for the DK vs.
Vyse match. DK seems to be a heavy favorite here, which really
surprises me.
Let's compare it to Kirby vs. Ramza for the
moment. While normally I would say Ramza > Vyse (because while
Skies of Arcadia has a big following at this site, Tactic's is
bigger), I have now become a convert and think that pics do matter
(at least in the early rounds). No good pics exist of Ramza, but
Vyse should get a pretty decent pic--I'm thinking people will see
the two swords and go "this is t3h r0xx0rz!~!", heh ;) Also, Vyse
has both Sega and Nintendo based because of his original game and
the remake. Thus, for the purposes of this contest, I would say that
Vyse > Ramza. And of course I don't even need to explain why
Kirby >> Donkey Kong. As others have said, Donkey Kong appears
to suffer from the fact that everyone knows him, but no one truly
cares.
So, given the fact that DK did AWFUL last year
according to our model, I'm calling this match the "model-predicted
upset special". Even if our model is underestimating DK, he was just
SO bad according to it. Let's convert our numbers to 100,000 votes,
which is a good number for the 1st round. In this case, DK has a
value of about 13,174 votes. Let's also assume that Kirby's
popularity has stayed constant for the past year; his popularity
last year was 32,969. Since Ramza's vote ratio to Kirby was .734,
that gives Ramza a value of 24,206. If you assume that Vyse = Ramza,
then Vyse is clearly far ahead of DK, 24,206 votes vs. 13,174
votes.
The Kirby '03 = Kirby '02 assumption, as well as the
Ramza = Vyse assumption, are key here; and these are both very
questionable assumptions. But, there seems to be a hell of a lot of
leeway. DK only compares to Vyse if you almost double his popularity
level. So while it's not 100% definitive that Vyse will beat DK, I
consider it to be probable.
Oh, and I call our model a
"Linearly Recursive Model Assuming Transitivy", since it is composed
of recursive linear math and assumes a transitive relationship
between matches holds. I guess this would be LRMAT. Do you call it
anything? --- Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if
there is one. Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! |
From: creativename
| Posted: 7/24/2003 6:28:52 AM | Message
Detail |
^^^***Also, Vyse has both Sega and Nintendo
based
Typo; I meant "bases", not "based", as in support
bases at this site.
Just an interesting question, though:
how do you think Frog would do if he were in the contest? Among CT
fans he's nearly as popular as Magus, and he probably won't get
screwed by an unrecognizable picture like Kefka did, but he won't
appeal to the casual gamer as much as Crono or Magus does. He'd
probably be the best indicator of 16-bit RPG support if he was
in.
I don't think Frog would do that great; OK, but not
great. He is behing Magus in terms of popularity among CT, and I
think it's by a pretty decent amount. Also, he is a Frog afterall--a
Frog with a sword, which helps, but still a Frog. People that don't
know who he is might be reluctant to vote for him. I think you are
very correct in that he'd be the best indicator we have of SNES RPG
support at this site.
I see Frog as being a solid 2nd round,
maybe 3rd round guy depending on the bracket. I see Magus as being
an easy 3rd round, very possible Elite Eight guy depending on the
bracket. Though of course, I like Frog far better than Magus.
Anybody that's played the game would know why it's somewhat
difficult for a Frog fan to truly love Magus :) --- Frog must
be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one. Remember to
nominate Frog in 2004! |
From: cyko
| Posted: 7/24/2003 6:55:45 AM | Message
Detail |
Just an interesting question, though: how do
you think Frog would do if he were in the contest? Among CT fans
he's nearly as popular as Magus, and he probably won't get screwed
by an unrecognizable picture like Kefka did, but he won't appeal to
the casual gamer as much as Crono or Magus does. He'd probably be
the best indicator of 16-bit RPG support if he was in.
i
just can't see Frog doing as well as Crono or Magus. he almost has
the same level of support on the boards, but he would grab a lot
fewer casual votes. while he is drawn in Akira Toriyama's style, a
frog with a sword isn't as cool-looking as a spikey haired kid with
a sword or an evil guy with a scythe. comparitively, i think Frog
probably would have gotten 55- 60% against Sam Fisher, 70% against
Tom Nook, and about the same as Kefka against Pac-Man. then again, i
could be wrong. a lot of voters might have a soft spot for frogs.
=P
*People underestimate Tidus, and Ganon barely beat
Tidus -->People will underestimate Ganon *Magus vs. Ganon
(let's assume Magus wins for the moment) could be much closer than
people think, because Ganon is actually pretty
strong. -->Thus, if/when Magus doesn't convincingly beat
Ganon, people will underestimate Magus. *At this point, people
might expect Link to annihilate Magus--however, while Link will very
likely win, it probably won't be a complete mis-match. -->If
Magus get around 40% of the vote against Link, people will suddenly
conclude Link is vulnerable. This will lead people to overestimating
Samus' chances.
i agree with your train of thought here,
creativename. Magus will pull it out over Ganondorf (not by much,
though) and i believe he will do respectable against Link, but Samus
will probably not do as well as Magus, simply because the Nintendo
vote will be split apart, the majority going to
Link.
I do think that this means something for the DK
vs. Vyse match. DK seems to be a heavy favorite here, which really
surprises me.
however, i seriously doubt this match will
be that close. Skies of Arcadia (although it is a great game) has
nowhere near the level of support that Final Fantasy Tactics does.
Vyse does have a cool picture, but he won't have as much support as
a Square character. it won't be a huge blowout, but i think D.K.
will win by more than Kirby did. --- Currently a fan of
these Summer2K3 characters: Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser,
Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti |
From: Yesmar
| Posted: 7/24/2003 1:09:38 PM | Message
Detail |
I was trying to figure out how many characters
returned from the contest from last year and figured out the
following.
26 Winners Returned 8 Losers
Returned
This means a grand total of 34 (or just over half)
of last year's contestants returned and 30 of this year's
contestants are newcomers which was a lot more than I
expected.
Anyway, for all those interested the six winners
not invited to return were:
Morrigan Aya Brea Tina
Armstrong Kyo Strider Serious Sam
Stone
&
the 8 losers that returned
were: Tails Fox McCloud Gordon Freeman Squall
Leonhart Kirby Raziel Ken Masters CATS
I was also
trying to figure out a likely return scenario for next year's
competition keeping the statistics the same, but some matches were
just to close to call, leaving me to believe that more people from
this year will be back when compared to people from last
year.
Regardless, the 5 people that should not be back
are: Tails Gordon Freeman Raziel Ken
Masters CATS
These people could not even manage to win any
matches either year they were in the competition.
--- The
wind...it blows--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind
Waker |
From: DomaDragoon
| Posted: 7/24/2003 1:28:04 PM | Message
Detail |
Regardless, the 5 people that should not be
back are: Tails Gordon Freeman Raziel Ken
Masters CATS
These people could not even manage to win any
matches either year they were in the competition.
Yes,
but you have to look at the competition.
Tails: Alucard /
Auron. The long-sworded badasses. This is the kind of opponent Tails
can't stand up to. If you put Tails up against a different kind of
opponent (say, CATS or DK), then Tails would do
better.
Freeman: Tina / Max Payne. Yeah, he should be
scrapped, unless HL2 comes out before the next
contest.
Raziel: Strider / Sephiroth. Heck, he shouldn't have
been in this year after getting beaten by a third-tier
character.
Ken: Samus / Sonic. Yeah, two icons. You really
think Ken had a chance against either of them? I don't see any
reason not to have him, although a different representative from the
SF series would be better.
CATS: Ryu / Cloud. The father of
the most prolific fighting series, and the founder of the next-gen
RPG. CATS shouldn't be in, but you know he will.
--- RPGP
Contributor "DragoonJay@excite.com"; Smart Ask! National Champion
(2003) |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 7/24/2003 2:30:25 PM | Message
Detail |
Solarshadow... Just wanted to let you know
that the PacMan/Kefka stats don't show up when I choose "All Stats"
instead of "First Round Stats."
Yeah, thanks. I'm not
sure how that happened. I know I updated it, because I recall
specifically checking to make sure it was correct. Must have
"un-updated" it somehow. Oops. :)
--without Cloud, Monday
seems to be more or less just another weekday.
I have no
idea why that made me laugh so hard. It sounds like you're
love-sick, or maybe you hate clear skies or something.
;)
Tom Nook is a bastard and not well liked by too many
people, even Animal Crossing fans.
I think that's taking
it a bit far. Although he's known as "Nook the Crook", I think
that's a semi-affectionate term for the entrepreneurial raccoon. :)
Sure he has a monopoly on the items for sale in Animal Crossing, but
he's also willing to buy any old junk you bring him. So he's pretty
much the source of all the money you receive in the game, as well as
being the recipient of it. :)
Anyway, lots of good stuff to
read, I just wish I had time to read it all (I've been skimming). I
promise I'll start hanging around in this topic more often once I
finally have Internet access again (still a week or two off). Oh,
and I think I put a new poll up on the stats site recently. I think.
I'm so disoriented. :( --- Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
From: Who
Cares? | Posted: 7/24/2003 2:39:56 PM | Message
Detail |
Finally have enough time to post on this thread
again, at least for today!
Anyway, for all those
interested the six winners not invited to return
were:
Morrigan Aya Brea Tina
Armstrong Kyo Strider Serious Sam
Stone
Funny thing about this list is that the only
ones who could truly put up a fight if they returned next year would
be Morrigan & Aya. We all know how big RPG's are on this site,
so Aya would probably have another good showing, depending on her
competition. And for all the whining about Morri's jugs, fact is,
she's in my view, one of the top 5-10 most popular characters in
fighting game circles, and outside Ryu & Scorpion, the only
fighting game character that was impressive last
year.
Regardless, the 5 people that should not be back
are: Tails Gordon Freeman Raziel Ken
Masters CATS
These people could not even manage to win any
matches either year they were in the competition.
The
only one I may have a problem with is Tails. Afterall, when your
given Alucard & Auron in your first match, your chances aren't
good unless that character is an icon. But I will say that Tails'
best days are well behind him.
And as for Ken, I
wholeheartedly agree. As much as I like Ken, it's time Street
Fighter got a better representative or two. Perhaps Chun-Li or
Akuma, both whom may be more popular than Ryu in fighting game
circles these days. However I will argue that if Ken, or even
Morrigan, would have switched positions with Scorpion last year,
that would have done just as well, if not better than
Scorpion.
Anyway, just wanted to respond to that. I'll
catchup to the rest of the thread later.
|
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 7/24/2003 4:43:49 PM | Message
Detail |
Match #24 Review
The outcome of
this match was extremely predictable, and I even managed to get the
percentages right! (It would be hilarious if the poll ended with
EXACTLY 82-18...) Of course, Mario and Crono had much stronger
showings, but Raziel is definitely no Olimar or
Nook.
Match #25 Preview
An action game icon vs.
the most hated character from the same series. I wonder where
this'll go... In all seriousness though, it will effectively take
someone like Raiden for Snake to get a blowout of the like of most
top-tiers. I was shocked when I discovered that Raiden had fans, and
loyal ones at that... but most people who played MGS2 won't even
dare to give Raiden pity votes. But will the "I thought this was the
MK Raiden" factor play a role...? --- Summer 2003 Contest:
Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 21/23, 0 lost . . . . . T-224
(771-way) Today's pick: Sephiroth |
From: Haste2
| Posted: 7/24/2003 4:54:06 PM | Message
Detail |
creativename and kawaiifan, I did a rankings
list just like yours and donated it to the topic about a year
ago...it's in the old topic, though.
I personally don't think
Vyse has much of a chance against Donkey Kong. While DK did horrible
against Mario last year, we gotta remember that almost all the DK
fans like Mario, as well, and would prefer Mario without question.
Just a fanboy clash...
And I really think that Aya > Vyse.
Skies of Arcadia wasn't a very big hit, even on this site, mainly
because it was released on the GameCube and Dreamcast, one system
with few RPG fans and the other being dead. Parasite Eve was quite a
popular game, and the featured Aya has TJF, as well. I just don't
think Vyse's looks will attract near as many votes as Aya
did...
And whoever said that Sephy would beat Raziel 82/18,
it looks like you are exactly correct. =p I thought the victim would
at least put up a better fight than Crash Bandicoot did last year.
Sephiroth scares me...he seems to perform better against
semi-weak opponents than even Link. I honestly thought he would win
it all last year after Round 2's results.
--- "Ah, a
party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a
party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 7/24/2003 5:57:57 PM | Message
Detail |
Oh, does this elaborate method of calculation
take into account the absolute destruction of DK against Mario? If
it does... then Vyse doesn't have as much of a chance as you say. He
can win, but it's not a no-brainer like you make it out to be. I
think that if DK went against an equally popular non-Nintendo
character, I think DK would have fared much
better. --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . .
. . 21/23, 0 lost . . . . . T-224 (771-way) Today's pick:
Sephiroth |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 7/24/2003 5:59:24 PM | Message
Detail |
That's some neat stuff KM. I still can't believe
only 20% chose Ramza after all the hulabaloo over the match.
Sometimes not being "elite" has its advantages.
Match #20
- Crono VS Tom Nook - Review
Crono - 88469 /
85.81% Tom Nook - 14631 / 14.19%
Total - 103100 (9th
highest)
Predicted Percentage - 92.8% (16th hardest) My
Pick - Crono Analysis Topic Pick - Crono "Odds" Pick -
Crono
Brackets Ruined - 26
Crono proves that his
performance last year wasn't a fluke, and that he has what it takes
to play with all the big boys. His blowout against Tom proves that
Mario/Crono Pt. II should be a match to remember. It's clear that
after Kefka's narrow win, Crono will make it to the third round
without a hitch. So after the first round, who has the advantage in
the highly anticipated rematch? Looking at percentages, Mario had
the bigger blowout by a decent margin, even though Crono managed to
acquire nearly as many votes as him. Crono's poll also had several
thousand more total votes, even though his match took place on
Sunday. So who was the bigger competition, Olimar or Tom Nook? It's
hard to say, especially since one matchup was Nintendo VS Nintendo
and the other Nintendo VS Square. Olimar's game, Pikmin, has done
slightly better than AC here in North America, of course, it's been
out about six months longer. There's no doubt though, that Animal
Crossing has a much larger community here at Gamefaqs (it's still
hanging around #25 on the top FAQs list). If you've played Pikmin
you'll know that Olimar is a pretty unassuming character. His
journal entries are neat, but nothing too exciting really. Votes
coming for Olimar were most likely based on his game's merit, not
his character's. I rented AC, and thought it was pretty neat. I
harbored no hate for Tom Nook. He gives the player a house and it's
only natural that he would expect to be paid back. I can understand
some people not liking him though, especially if they didn't really
care about earning money in the game. So who had the tougher
opposition? It's hard to say, although I'd say it's probably Crono,
just because Animal Crossing is so much more popular at Gamefaq's
than Pikmin is. Unfortunately all Animal Crossing fans have to look
forward to is Mr. Resetti being the victim of an even bigger blowout
than the one Nook was a part of. Hopefully we'll see more of both
Mario and Crono's skills next round.
Match #21 - Alucard
VS Bomberman - Review
Alucard - 65351 /
64.46% Bomberman - 36033 / 35.54%
Total - 101384 (11th
highest)
Prediction Percentage - 63% ( (11th hardest) My
Pick - Alucard Analysis Topic Pick - Alucard "Odds" Pick -
Alucard
Brackets Ruined - 9
This was a pretty
uneventful match, the only surprising thing is that only 63% of
entrants predicted the match correctly. One thing that's interesting
though is that this is one of only three first round matches where
both competitors made it past the first round last year. Looking at
last year's results, we can see that... Alucard > (Jill >
Kirby >) Bomberman. So Alucard beat Bomberman worse than Jill
did. And Jill beat Bomberman worse than she beat Kirby. As long as
Kirby hasn't grown in popularity too much since last year, Alucard
should defeat Kirby in a fairly tight match.
More to
Come! --- Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle
II" Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points
lost |
From: creativename
| Posted: 7/24/2003 6:14:25 PM | Message
Detail |
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/24/2003 2:39:56
PM And as for Ken, I wholeheartedly agree. As much as I like Ken,
it's time Street Fighter got a better representative or two. Perhaps
Chun-Li or Akuma, both whom may be more popular than Ryu in fighting
game circles these days. However I will argue that if Ken, or even
Morrigan, would have switched positions with Scorpion last year,
that would have done just as well, if not better than
Scorpion
I disagree about Ken. Ken's showing have
actually been quite impressive. He is a very solid 2nd round
character. And no, I don't think Akumna would do nearly as well as
Ken. You have to remember than Ken has the old-school fans behind
him; Akuma would not have this. Most wouldn't even know who he was.
Morrigan is more well-known than Akuma. His main hope would be
having a real bad-ass pic. As for Chun-Li, I doubt she would do as
good as Ken, because she is a girl. Contrary to all the whining
about "TJF", it seems more common in these polls for females
candidates to under-perform. The only Street Fighter character, not
including Ryu, who might have a chance to do better than Ken is
Vega.
And yes, Ken for one is > Scorpion, in all
likelihood. Morrigan and Scorpion are close too.
From:
Haste2 | Posted: 7/24/2003 4:54:06 PM And I really think that Aya
> Vyse.
Actually, the fact that he almost lost to a
relatively unknown female is another reason why I discount DK. Like
I said, females seem to underperform at this site. "TJF" is just
something people came up with and it caught on mostly for comedic
purposes; however, it doesn't really appear to be an actual factor.
Stuff like Aya vs. DK (DK is not popular) and Tina vs. Gordon (no
one knows Gordon) can easily be explained without TJF, which is what
people mostly came up with it for.
So no, I don't think Aya
> Vyse; I don't believe it's even close. The fact that he is a
male gives him an edge, as does the two-sword thing, as well as the
fact that at this website SoA is far more popular than
Parasite Eve. I don't ever--I mean, EVER--hear people talking about
Parasite Eve on this site. Whereas, people very often talk about
SoA. Ramirez, for one, always gets tons of responses on various
"best villain" polls. --- Frog must be in the 2004 character
battle, if there is one. Remember to nominate Frog in
2004! |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 7/24/2003 6:42:55 PM | Message
Detail |
Match #22 - Kirby VS Ramza -
Review
Kirby - 57862 / 57.66% Ramza - 42482 /
42.34%
Total - 100344 (13th highest)
Prediction
Percentage - 80% (15th hardest) My Pick - Kirby Analysis Topic
Pick - Kirby "Odds" Pick - Kirby
Brackets Ruined -
86
Another close match come and gone. Of course, it wasn't
nearly as exciting as it was made out to be, but that's probably for
the best, as we've had plenty of excitement this division with two
other matches with surprise results. As much talk as there was,
Kirby winning makes sense. He's a fan favorite at Gamefaqs, and his
new cartoon series could not have hurt his popularity. Of course, we
could have just been overestimating Ramza. He was the only character
I hadn't heard of. I guess he doesn't have the appeal of the other
FF heroes. So chalk up another victory for Nintendo over Square
(just in case it means something) as Kirby moves on to round two,
where he'll face Alucard. I doubt Kirby will be able to win here,
Alucard is a pretty strong opponent. I predict Alucard should be
able to take it with about 56%, although there is the possibility of
the puffball pulling an upset.
Match #23 - Gordon VS Max -
Review
Gordon - 41997 / 46.01% Max - 49281 /
53.99%
Total - 91278 (23rd highest)
Prediction
Percentage - 65.4% My Pick - Max Analysis Topic Pick -
Max "Odds" Pick - Gordon
Brackets Ruined -
120
Another close match... the South's first round has turned
out to be a lot tougher than I thought it would. Anyway Gordon and
Max squared off in what will most likely be the least popular match
of the contest. PC characters never get much love on Gamefaqs, so
neither of these characters are very exciting. Most chose Max to win
it, as more voters would be able to recognize his character. The
looming release of HL2 didn't seem to do much for Gordon, who got
owned by a bottom tier character for the second year in a row.
Gordon winning the entire contest in 120 brackets, and his unusually
high seed does seem to indicate that he has a fair few hardcore
fans, even more than someone like Ramza. Unfortunately, they mean
nothing because Gordon is a loser. Anyway, Max is dead next round,
I'm not even convinced he'll be able to put up as good a fight
against Sephiorth as Raziel is currently.
Match #24 -
Sephiroth VS Raziel - Current
Sephiroth caps off the
tumultous South Division with an easy blowout, though perhaps not as
easy as some Sephiroth fans may prefer. We'll have to wait for the
final voting total to see just how Sephiroth stacks up against the
stiff competition in his division this year.
Match #25 -
Snake VS Raiden - Preview
Snake will win, MGS incest
makes it hard for me to predict how big of a blowout it will be. I
just have one question, would Raiden do better or worse if CJayC
used a Naked Raiden pic? :p
Hurray for me being all caught
up!
--- Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character
Battle II" Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points
lost |
From: creativename
| Posted: 7/24/2003 7:09:30 PM | Message
Detail |
I just have one question, would Raiden do
better or worse if CJayC used a Naked Raiden pic?
Better.
There's too many pervs at this site. --- Frog must be in the
2004 character battle, if there is one. Remember to nominate
Frog in 2004! |
From: EvilNcr
| Posted: 7/24/2003 7:19:13 PM | Message
Detail |
Gordon winning the entire contest in 120
brackets, and his unusually high seed does seem to indicate that he
has a fair few hardcore fans, even more than someone like
Ramza.
I strongly disagree. In that fight, no one cared
about each other and quite frankly, they both wouldn't be able to
score a 35% against Kirby.
Kirby isn't a weak opponent... but
a average one as I call it. Ramza made a strong showing for a 13th
seed. Trust me, Ramza would handily defeat both Max and Gordon. And
RPG fans are not lacking here. Many FFT fans actually voted Kirby.
Against Max or Gordon, they wouldn't hesitate to support
him.
Ramza has about 300 times the number of hardcore fans
than both max and Gordon. --- The Reaper is always a step
behind you ncr... |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 7/24/2003 8:18:55 PM | Message
Detail |
What I meant was Gordon has more fans that would
place him above any other character than Ramza does.
That's
why Gordon has a higher seed than Ramza. That's why more people
chose Gordon to win the entire thing than Ramza.
I do agree
with you though, Ramza would be able to easily beat either Gordon or
Max. --- Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle
II" Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points
lost |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 7/24/2003 8:36:07 PM | Message
Detail |
Quick comment:
Contrary to all the
whining about "TJF", it seems more common in these polls for females
candidates to under-perform. The only Street Fighter character, not
including Ryu, who might have a chance to do better than Ken is
Vega.
Hope you're talking about M.Bison/Vega, rather than
Vega/Balrog. Bison, I could see the reasoning for--he's the
end-boss, and a fairly memorable one sometimes. The other Vega
really has very little going for him (certainly less than
Chunny). |
From: creativename
| Posted: 7/24/2003 9:12:07 PM | Message
Detail |
Hope you're talking about M.Bison/Vega,
rather than Vega/Balrog. Bison, I could see the reasoning for--he's
the end-boss, and a fairly memorable one sometimes. The other Vega
really has very little going for him (certainly less than
Chunny).
No, I'm talking about Japanese Balrog/American
Vega (I was going to clarify this before, but thought I might end up
confusing people). Vega was also far more popular than American M.
Bison. He had that whole Wolverine thing going for him. Vega was
ridiculously popular. I have little doubt he would fare better than
Chun Li.
I remember being at the arcade, or the busy Street
Fighter machine at 7-11...ah, the old days. Anyway, Vega had a
crapload of fanboys back then. Less than Ryu, but probably on par
with Ken. No one else was close. To this day, when I see people
discussing Street Fighter, people talk about how cool Vega was. No
one talks about M. Bison (though if HE had been named Vega, no doubt
he'd be more popular). --- Frog must be in the 2004 character
battle, if there is one. Remember to nominate Frog in
2004! |
From: kawaiifan
| Posted: 7/24/2003 9:13:18 PM | Message
Detail |
Creativename
wrote:
Awesome!
:)
I think our method
is not very accurate for predictions--for instance, Jill vs. Squall
and Alucard vs. Bomberman turned out waaay different than they would
have, if our model was predictive.
In Jill vs. Squall,
Jill has apparently lost considerable popularity recently, while
some previously annoyed fans may have forgiven Squall in the past
year. So, while this outcome was indeed an upset according to our
system, upsets can happen! And that just makes it more fun
:)
I do agree, though, that Alucard vs. Bomberman
demonstrates that our method is far from perfect.
Another
factor not accounted for by our system is exemplified by Donkey
Kong:
As others have said, Donkey Kong appears to suffer
from the fact that everyone knows him, but no one truly
cares.
DK's performances showcase the fickle nature of
his support. The big ape apparently has few actual fans in his own
right. On the other hand, whenever he's up against a non-Nintendo
character, he can rely on the massive Nintendo machine lending him
their votes for that match.
In other words, as far as his own
popularity for himself, he's a dud. In contrast, as a 'vehicle for
Nintendo support,' he can certainly put up a strong showing over
weak characters (and hypothetically perhaps even do well in a loss
to the likes of a Vercetti / Cloud / Mega Man / Solid Snake); but as
soon as he goes up against a Big N character who's popular in and of
her or himself, Kong disintegrates. (Mario / Link / Samus, for
instance.)
I feel that Vyse stands very little chance against
DK, since many of the plentiful Mario / Link fans won't even
recognise Vyse ... and even if they do, they won't realise that he
has appeared on their platform. Everybody knows Donkey Kong and
where his big simian feet stand. However, Vyse can count on
receiving votes from the sword- and some of the anime-devotees, and
from the anti-Nintendo coalition, in addition to his own fans. Yet I
still don't feel that it'll be close to enough to topple the primate
in this round. Of course, I've been wrong many times before.
:)
Oh, and I call our model a "Linearly Recursive Model
Assuming Transitivity" [...] I guess this would be LRMAT. Do you
call it anything?
:) Sorry, no.
By the way, I'd be
glad to nominate Frog next year ... please nominate Nakoruru for me
though. :)
--- Supporting Nakoruru (and her little sister
Rimururu too!) for nomination in 2004!
Rooting for Mega Man,
and some other characters, in the meantime.
|
From: cyko
| Posted: 7/24/2003 10:09:39 PM | Message
Detail |
Top 5 Vote Getters
1. Cloud
Strife- 94086 2. Link- 92998 3. Mario- 89189 4. Crono-
88469 5. Samus Aran- 81123
Top 5 Most Pathetic
Characters (Least Votes)
1. Aiai- 8802 2. Captain
Olimar- 11678 3. CATS- 14168 4. Tom Nook- 14631 5. Ratchet-
24099
Top 5 Blowouts (Biggest Vote
Difference)
1. Link over Aiai- 84196 2. Cloud over
Cats- 79918 3. Mario over Captain Olimar- 77511 4. Crono over
Tom Nook- 73838 5. Samus over Isaac- 54563
Top 5
Closest Matches
1. Ganondorf over Tidus- 1582 2. Kefka
over Pac-Man- 1773 3. Master Chief over Felix- 6318 4. Max
Payne over Gordon Freeman- 7284 5. Kirby over Ramza-
15380
Top 5 Most Impressive Losers
1. Tidus-
57078 2. Felix- 50231 3. Pac-Man- 45905 4. Ramza-
42482 5. Gordon Freeman- 41997
Top 5 Least Impressive
Winners
1. Kefka- 47678 2. Max Payne- 49281 3.
Master Chief- 56549 4. Squall- 57392 5. Kirby
57862
Top 5 Biggest Vote Totals
1. Tidus vs.
Ganondorf- 115738 2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 112801 3. Auron vs.
Tails- 108884 4. Cloud vs. CATS- 108254 5. Samus vs. Isaac-
107683
Top 5 Smallest Vote Totals
1. Gordon
Freeman vs. Max Payne- 91278 2. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 91464 3.
Yoshi vs. Conker- 92418 4. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 93583 5. Luigi
vs. Ratchet- 94649
Top 5 Easiest Matches to Pick (Based on
Number of Correct Contest Entries)
1. Link vs. Aiai-
99.1% 2. Mario vs. Captain Olimar- 98.0% 3. Cloud vs. CATS-
94.9% 4. Samus vs. Isaac- 93.8% 5. Crono vs. Tom Nook-
92.8%
Top 5 Hardest Matches to Pick
1. Wario
vs. Shadow the Hedgehog- 42.1% 2. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot-
42.5% 3. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 43.5% 4. Zero vs. Scorpion-
47.3% 5. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 47.7%
--- Currently a
fan of these Summer2K3 characters: Magus, Cloud, Zero,
Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti |
From: cyko
| Posted: 7/24/2003 10:22:35 PM | Message
Detail |
Regardless, the 5 people that should not be
back are: Tails Gordon Freeman Raziel Ken
Masters CATS
okay, here's what i
think:
Tails- he really did draw some tough matches
with first Alucard and then Auron, but in all honesty, he is the
weakest link in the chain of Sonic characters. Sonic, Knuckles, and
Shadow are all way more popular, so Tails really doesn't need to
come back again. but Sega does deserve its fair share of characters,
so how about someone like Toejam or Earl
instead?
Gordon- yeah, he lost to two low level
characters. get him out of here.
Raziel- again, why
did he even return this year? he should also go away.
Ken
Masters - Ken, however, deserves another shot. he got stuck with
Samus and then Sonic. and he did pretty respectable against both.
31% against Sonic is no easy task. but even if he did show up again,
he'd probably get another low seed against a tough opponent for yet
another first round loss. i doubt any other Street Fighter
character, including Vega, Akuma, and Chun Li could do much
better.
CATS- ugh. either way, that CATS army won't
shutup, so i guess it doesn't really matter. i still can't believe
they honestly thought CATS could beat
Cloud.
--- Currently a fan of these Summer2K3
characters: Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth
and Mr. Resetti |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 7/24/2003 10:35:29 PM | Message
Detail |
Heh, strange...Akuma was the one people were
abusing at my arcades. ;)
I really don't know enough about
the Street Fighter community at large to argue who would do best
with them. But I don't think Vega would do well with the casual
voters because his role is so limited. He was one of the original 12
World Warriors, but so was E. Honda. Vega didn't make the Alpha
series that gave Akuma his fame until A3 (which had everyone), and
he didn't make SF3 (which had Akuma and Chun Li) at
all.
Besides, Akuma's the tough guy, and Chun Li's the cute
girl. Vega's...okay, he's the psycho with the claw. Bad example. ;)
Still don't think that outdoes the other two, though.... |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 7/24/2003 11:06:34 PM | Message
Detail |
For what its worth, I hate Ken and hope he
dies.
I think Chun-Li could do much
better. --- Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character
Battle II" Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points
lost |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 7/24/2003 11:14:44 PM | Message
Detail |
"RPGP Contributor "DragoonJay@excite.com";
Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)"
Smart Ask!? As in
the CBC Quiz show? That's awesome, my school's team went to Toronto
and won a few rounds last year. I wasn't on it but I plan to try out
next fall. --- Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character
Battle II" Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points
lost |
From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 7/25/2003 12:02:31 AM | Message
Detail |
My prediction would be Sephiroth,
82-18
The outcome of this match was extremely predictable,
and I even managed to get the percentages right! (It would be
hilarious if the poll ended with EXACTLY
82-18...)
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=1328
Slowflake,
I must say this is truly impressive... --- "Everything gold
does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost" Current
Points: 22/24 |
From: EvilNcr
| Posted: 7/25/2003 12:05:39 AM | Message
Detail |
O_o... slowfake, you are godly. --- The
Reaper is always a step behind you ncr... |
From: Team
Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/25/2003 12:06:19 AM | Message
Detail |
Awesome job Slowflake! A perfect
guess. --- "Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in
their hearts..." "All dreams are but another reality. Never
forget..." |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 7/25/2003 12:08:18 AM | Message
Detail |
...wow. That's hilarious. Impressive,
too.... |
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 7/25/2003 6:04:43 AM | Message
Detail |
Oh. My. ****ing. God.
Normally I'm as
good as a rotten strawberry at these things, and I just went to see
the results, saying "No way I could have called this to the
hundredth", and OMG WTF BBQ?
Good thing I didn't try
Snake/Raiden, I thought this would be more along the lines of
93/7. --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . .
. 22/24, 0 lost . . . . . T-223 (758-way) Today's pick:
Snake |
From: cyko
| Posted: 7/25/2003 6:18:46 AM | Message
Detail |
lol, go Slowflake! right on with Sephiroth and
his 82%!
--- Currently a fan of these Summer2K3
characters: Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth
and Mr. Resetti |
From: Nebachanezer
| Posted: 7/25/2003 6:35:32 AM | Message
Detail |
Just looking at ther numbers from the
sephi/raziel match it is the highest vote garnering match. Does this
solidify sephi as a legit contender to dethrone link? I know that
it's just the first round, but when a 2/15 match gets the most votes
thus far that can't bode well for some of the favorites, can
it? --- "We enter this world through an endless shroud of
tears. That's almost Shakespearean, isn't it?" Dr. Gill,
Kikaider "I stink!" Rich Vos |
From: Slowflake
| Posted: 7/25/2003 6:37:52 AM | Message
Detail |
MEEP! Wrong! This match's third, behind Tidus
vs. Ganondorf and Zero vs. Scorpion. Then again, the ability to
attract votes last year didn't help Cloud when he needed it the most
last year, against Mario. --- Summer 2003 Contest:
Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 22/24, 0 lost . . . . . T-223
(758-way) Today's pick: Snake |
From: cyko
| Posted: 7/25/2003 6:39:55 AM | Message
Detail |
cyko's Match 23 Review
Gordon Freeman
vs. Max Payne
*yawn* whats to review here? two characters
that nobody cares about and have no chance of winning against
Sephiroth. in a somewhat close match, Max Payne pulls out a not
well-deserved victory. i doubt that Max will even get as many votes
as Raziel did against Seph. well, at least i got my bracket
point.
cyko's Match 24 Review
Sephiroth vs.
Raziel
just as Slowflake predicted, it's an 82% victory
for Sephiroth. he shows no signs of slowing down this yearand
although his percentage of votes was lower than both Crono and
Mario, his total number of votes was higher than both. the south
division finals will be one heck of a match. Sephiroth fans get to
relax for a little while longer, though, as he gets another bye next
round against Max Payne.
cyko's Match 25
Preview
Solid Snake vs. Raiden
i seriously thought
that Snake was against Raiden from Mortal Kombat for the longest
time. when i first picked my bracket, i never bothered to check the
profile and i never even thought abought Raiden from MGS2. when i
discovered which Raiden was really in this match shortly before the
tourney started, i laughed. i laughed a lot. this is gonna be a huge
blowout. when you take a popular character from a series and match
him up against an unliked character from the same series, you get
one massive cornholing. Raiden has a few fans, but the majority of
the vote he could have gotten in a different match would have been
Metal Gear Solid fans. but when you take the series vote away and
give most of it to Snake, all you have left is pity. Raiden will be
lucky if he breaks 10000 votes. i honestly think Mortal Kombat
Raiden would have done better, probably at least 25%. at least
this match will prove to Hideo Kojima that most people were unhappy
with getting stuck with Raiden in the second game and will hopefully
put Solid Snake back in the main character spot in Metal Gear Solid
3, right where he belongs.
--- Currently a fan of these
Summer2K3 characters: Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka,
Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti |
From: steve
illumina | Posted: 7/25/2003 2:18:43 PM | Message
Detail |
First let me say, this thread has been extremely
entertaining, insightful, and a welcome respite from the lame trash
skewed throughout the message board as a whole. All of the experts
on this board should be commended for their statistical analysis of
the battles and for their commentary.
It is time for I, a new
'expert' to chime in with a humorously written yet serious approach
to the tourney, beginning with the three completed first round
divisions.
We begin in the North, where defending champion
Link easily dispatched the futile primate AiAi by a crushing margin
of over 84000 votes. He will go on to a ho-hum rematch from last
season against fellow Nintendo stalwart Fox McCloud, who handily
defeated the fading Pikachu.
Some would say the next two
matches were upsets because of the seed numbers who won, but I
say...rubbish! In my view, Ganondorf eeked out the win only due to
the fact Wind Waker was released so recently in March, and so then
he is in the minds of the voters as being more fresh than Tidus,
already out 2 years on PS2 and in the league of Squall on the Square
Popularity meter. The result easily would have been the other way
around if Wind Waker came out last year. Chalk this one up to the
retail factor. And thus then the lower seeded Ganondorf wins in what
really was an even contest. He goes on to face #13 seed Magus, a
beloved and Top 3 Square villain in the minds of many (the Top 3
along with Sephiroth & Kefka) who handily defeated overseeded
upstart Sam Fisher, a generic one game wonder character who belonged
somewhere lower than #4.
Middle of the road Square hero
'Storm' Squall Leonhart blows past last year holdover Jill
Valentine, cementing a spot in the next round against Luigi, the
oft-neglected and vastly underrated brother of the King of
Platformers, who proved his mettle by destroying edgy one game
action wonder Ratchet by a 65000+ vote margin, one of the highest
blowouts thus far.
Dark horse candidate KOS-MOS of Xenosaga
Episode 1 fame wiped the floor with fading Sony rodent Crash
Bandicoot by a wider margin than many expected, including myself,
giving her solid momentum against Nintendo tier 2 character Samus
Aran, who walloped newbie Isaac, who tried valiantly in his debut to
pull off the upset but failed, though pulling off a respectable 25%
showing, earning an invite next year in the eyes of
many.
Stay tuned for my South and East wrapup, and then my
West pre-match analysis and more to come later as the exciting 2nd
round follows! Thanks again to all for readin
:)
--- ~Steve Illumina~ Contest Score: 19/24 Offical
Sephiroth Supporter: Summer Contest 2003 |
From: steve
illumina | Posted: 7/25/2003 2:19:30 PM | Message
Detail |
(continuation of last post)
Progressing
to the East, where Squaresoft's Mr. Popular Cloud destroyed the CATS
army with a swoop of his Materia Blade, though as we all know, the
CATS will rise next year...to lose again! He faces rising star
Auron, who won the first recognized by the majority surprise result
of the tourney, defeating old school Sega sidekick Tails
convincingly by about 32000 votes.
Swinging up next was
Nintendo, where a pair of platform legends came through against
lesser Nintendo characters. Ness fell to perennial Mario nemesis
Bowser handily, as did Conker, who suffered defeat at the tounge of
Yoshi in a low voter turnout contest.
Sora of Kingdom Hearts
was bested by underseeded fan favorite Aeris and she goes on to face
the hero of Xbox, the overrated generic Master Chief, who barely
squeaked by against the winner of 'Best Supporting Character in a
Game Boy RPG' Felix. This upcoming snoozefest will likely be the
biggest blowout of the 2nd round.
Last year's favorite son,
Scorpion, was embarrassed by Mega Man wannabe Zero, and produces an
exciting 2nd round match against the iconic Sonic, who as expected,
beat Ryu clone Ken Masters, but Ken as we all know, took many
votes...33146 of them, and will return with a better seeding next
year, for he does deserve better, compared to other higher seeds
than him who fared worse. (Pikachu...Ness...Conker...you know who u
are!)
The South division started with a bang in many
respects. First, Mario, the King of Platformers and Savior of
Gaming, hops all over hapless Captain 'Oh Captain My Captain' Olimar
of the underrated Pikmin series. Second bang is semi-palette swapped
but evolving in originality Wario being upset, yes upset, by palette
swapped but no real originality yet Shadow the Hedgehog. This broke
many brackets, mine included.
Universally respected Pac Man
fell short against Kefka, another of the 'Top 3 Square villains
club, but barely, proving again why he will always maintain timeless
popularity. Kefka will face Crono, the silent yet loved hero of
Chrono Trigger, who dispatched little known newcomer Tom Nook,
sending him back to his lil shop from whence he came in Animal
Crossing with a spanking.
Alucard of Castlevania vanquished
old school Bomberman in a rather uneventful match, and pink puff
Kirby did the same to minor Square hero Ramza in a match that
disappointed some on the boards. Ramza is a classic case of the
'game is more than any of its characters' syndrome, and it showed by
his non-overwhelming, but still fan supported, performance.
The lamest match of the first round, Gordon Freeman vs Max
Payne, ended predictably, with Max defeating Gordy in a battle of
fading first person stars which showed true voter apathy with the
lowest turnout on record this year. Both have sequels coming...does
it matter here? Nope...it matters not...for Max shall now face the
mighty Sephiroth, greatest of Square's villians (and my pick for the
tourney!) who destroyed wannabe bad boy Raziel and probably be
destroyed in what very well may be the biggest blowout of the 2nd
round, competing with Aeris v Master Chief, as the FF7 steamroller
continues in the second round here.
Stay tuned for my West
pre-match analysis and more to come later as the exciting 2nd round
follows! Thanks again to all for readin :) --- ~Steve
Illumina~ Contest Score: 19/24 Offical Sephiroth Supporter:
Summer Contest 2003 |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 7/25/2003 2:46:34 PM | Message
Detail |
Some stats catch-up:
WEST
DIVISION
1 - Mario - 89189 / 88.42% (100867) -
40235 / 98.0% 16 - Captain Olimar - 11678 / 11.58%
(100867) - 824 / 2.0%
8 - Wario - 36721 / 35.10%
(104607) - 23768 / 57.9% 9 - Shadow the Hedgehog -
67886 / 64.90% (104607) - 17291 / 42.1%
5 -
Pac-Man - 45905 / 49.05% (93583) - 23209 / 56.5% 12 -
Kefka - 47678 / 50.95% (93583) - 17850 /
43.5%
4 - Crono - 88469 / 85.81% (103100) -
38103 / 92.8% 13 - Tom Nook - 14631 / 14.19% (103100)
- 2956 / 7.2%
6 - Alucard - 65351 / 64.46% (101384)
- 25852 / 63.0% 11 - Bomberman - 36033 / 35.54%
(101384) - 15207 / 37.0%
3 - Kirby - 57862 / 57.66%
(100344) - 32861 / 80.0% 14 - Ramza Beoulve - 42482 /
42.34% (100344) - 8198 / 20.0%
7 - Gordon Freeman -
41997 / 46.01% (91278) - 14199 / 34.6% 10 - Max Payne -
49281 / 53.99% (91278) - 26860 / 65.4%
2 -
Sephiroth - 90364 / 82.00% (110202) - 38560 / 93.9% 15
- Raziel - 19838 / 18.00% (110202) - 2499 / 6.1%
Oh,
and I'm behind on my poll questions, so I just put another one up.
How did we get into the West Division already? This contest is
really flying by... --- Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
From: steve
illumina | Posted: 7/25/2003 3:09:37 PM | Message
Detail |
My West pre-match analysis!
Solid Snake
will easily defeat Raiden...wait he already is! Even if I said it
yesterday I would have said the same thing. Another easy victory for
the Snake, the weakest of the four #1 seeds.
Brings us to
tomorrow's Sonic Hedgehog vs FFX rematch, in this case, Knuckles v
Yuna. Some say this should be the most interesting match in this
bracket, but Yuna's popularity will echo Auron's in a similar score.
Knuckles will fall here as did Tails, for neither of them are in
Sonic's league. They are mere supporting characters, whereas Yuna is
a star in her own right now with FFX-2. Look for a 60-40
split.
4 blowouts of varying caliber follow. Street Fighter
poster child Ryu will destroy the forgotten Duke Nukem 'my sequel
has been in development' Forever by an 80-20 margin and avenge Ken
in the process. Next Dante of Devil May 'but I won't' Cry will whip
up on lesser known Ryo Hazuki of Shenmue 'Shenwho?' by a likely
75-25 margin. Next blowout will be Nintendo's erratic juggernaut
Donkey Kong over Vyse of Skies of Arcadia, another likely 75-25
score, and the worst of the four blowouts in this line will be Tommy
'Newbie' Vercetti of GTA who will grease Kite of .hack, and will do
so embarrassingly. Of all the characters in the round of 64, Kite
does not belong here. Kite of Pee-Wee's Playhouse would have done
better...
The most interesting match in my mind in this
bracket is Lara vs Zelda. A girl who fell from grace vs a girl who
never had any. A girl who will win because of a new movie, over a
girl from a great game series that still shines. not from one past
its prime. Will be close though. Lara will take it..only to
face...
Mega Man! Mega Man...the Blue Bomber, 15 years of
games, too many to list, will roll all over Mr. Resetti...this like
one of the other experts said, could be the biggest blowout of them
all in the first round, maybe even in contest history. Mega Man
should have been the #1 seed in this division, but oh well. He will
take this bracket, beginning with lowly Mr. Resetti.
And on
to Round 2 then we will go! --- ~Steve Illumina~ Contest
Score: 19/24 Offical Sephiroth Supporter: Summer Contest
2003 |
From: CD
Random | Posted: 7/25/2003 3:23:39 PM | Message
Detail |
Bomberman lost Waaaa! ~_~ |
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