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Summer 2003 Contest

Stats & Discussion - Summer 2003 Contest

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/18/2003 3:47:09 PM | Message Detail

But maybe we overestimated Wario's popularity. Once again, this is another scenario that number of games & longevity doesn't equal popularity.

Yeah, it looks like it. I thought Wario would take it on exposure alone. I'm not a Wario fan specifically, but I'm certainly more familiar with him. I guess that just wasn't enough. Now I'm even more worried about Knuckles vs. Yuna...

As for the "coolness" factor, I think the next match will definitely test that theory. Kefka should win it easily, but he looks positively ridiculous in that pic. If Pac-Man wins, we'll know how superficial the voters are. :)

Yay!

Hooray, Kirby Still On Top finally made his way in here. Now the party can really get started! I would just like to point out that without KSOT's support last year there wouldn't even be a stats topic (or website, etc.). Special thanks in this category also goes to Jjukil and NeoElfboy for encouraging me to trade my life for stats. ;)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Krillin373 | Posted: 7/18/2003 4:13:10 PM | Message Detail

I think many haven't realized that a lot of people actually preferred Shadow over Sonic, at least that's what I've always heard.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Today's pick- Shadow

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/18/2003 4:49:54 PM | Message Detail

Match #18 Review

You know, there are some of these matches where the outcome makes you go all WTF. This is one of these. I mean, a blowout in Shadow's favor? Gimme a break. I knew Shadow had a chance, but I always thought that if there was a blowout to be had, it would be Wario's. Anyway, I don't know if Wario's pic is hindering him (more on pics later, of course...), but where's the problem then?

Shadow looks cooler, acts cooler and all-around owns Wario. Note that this is not my opinion, which is exactly the opposite. But... he's been in one game. Looks like we all forgot how this means nothing on GameFAQs, where the RPG elites are one-game wonders.

But Wario had so much exposure, from his own games to the many Mario spinoffs (Party, Tennis, Kart, etc.), and in the latter he was most often humorous. (Guess comical relief isn't the kind of things GameFAQs users like, as shown by the popularity of RPGs.) Many thought this would net him the win, but it looks like he suffers from the DK syndrome: everyone knows him, but no one cares. I say that because I didn't see a lot of Wario hate (I've seen more Yoshi hate for crying out loud!).

On a final note, while it was obvious that Shadow would have been the better opponent for Mario no matter the outcome (see the Bowser/Yoshi/Cloud love triangle), such a performance shows he might have the strength to destroy all of the momentum Mario gained yesterday.

Match #19 Preview

Okay, so we have a match between two characters that can't look good no matter what is done. But... as so many pointed out, something's wrong with Kefka's pic. Lettuce Man (would be a great Megaman boss, isn't it?) is, after all, against a legend, and while Pac-Man didn't do good last year, Kefka's popularity can hardly be gauged, since FF fans seem mostly fans of 7-10, and old-schoolers prefer CT. Kefka's in the hot seat... can he pass ANY test? ((c) Jjukil 2003)
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 16/17, 0 lost . . . . . T-233 (1246-way)
Today's pick: Wario

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/18/2003 5:08:05 PM | Message Detail

Samberdog: Thanks. =) Remember, I may still be bringing the Poll Stats back with a full chart, once I get some time to figure out what to report (and how). Maybe by the end of Round 1. =P

Mario vs. Olimar: Mario is back with a vengeance this year. This may be Nintendo vs. Nintendo, but where Olimar's concerned, how many anti-Nintendo voters really know that? Besides, even to those that do know both of them, I would think that Mario would be the greater of two evils. Even if it's not much, his margin of victory here has to mean something. At the very least, Mario vs. Sephiroth looks a little closer.

Wario vs. Shadow: Man...how unpopular must Wario really be to be losing by this much to the one-game-wonder Shadow. Did we not we just see Sonic limp into Round 2 with 70%, followed by Mario scoring a Link-style blowout? Or am I watching the wrong contest? Granted, Ken would wipe the floor with Olimar, but it still just doesn't seem right. With his dorky attitude and appearance--and Wario World's flop--I knew Wario would have it rough against the "ultra-cool" Shadow, but I really couldn't see it being more than 57/43. Today's results really prove something about this contest...but I'd better not say what, since we're trying to keep flame wars out of this topic. ^^; (Of course, this review is already biased enough anyway....)

Oh, and
*pokes each and every of you with sharp sticks* ;P

Pac-Man vs. Kefka: I'm actually glad about the picture being used, for one reason: it makes for a true test of the Kefka fanbase's mettle. ;) I'm still pretty sure he'll pull off the win--FF characters have done too well this year for him not to. (...though, look where that got Wario....) I really wouldn't mind seeing either of these characters advance, but in contest terms, I'm hoping Kefka scores a 75/25 blowout. We need another surprise powerhouse this year, and Kefka's one of the last candidates left for the job (besides Vercetti and Yuna).

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/18/2003 10:28:50 PM | Message Detail

"I'd have to disagree here. Ken > Scorpion. If Ken had been in Scorpion's spot last year, he would have done just as well, and would have probably fared a teeny bit better against Link even."

Maybe you're right. I think it's become clear that I'm not very good at gaging Scorpion's popularity...
There's one more thing I wanted to say about that match. If Scorpion got his ass handed to him by Zero, than this speaks even less of Pac-Man and Max Payne. Just something to keep in mind.

Match #17 - Mario VS Olimar - Review

Mario - 89189 / 88.42%
Olimar - 11678 / 11.58%

Total - 100876 (9th highest)

Prediction Percentage - 98% (16th hardest)
My Pick - Mario
Analysis Topic Pick - Mario
"Odds" Pick - Mario

Brackets Ruined - 7

"Olimar is gardening in Mario's backyard." LOL, it looks like Mario was the one doing the gardening in Olimar's backyard... I'm sorry, I couldn't resist. So everyone saw this coming (except one perfect, which is awesome), and Mario starts off loads better than he did last year. Although I had my doubts, Mario shines through like a true 1st tier should. I'd say Mario definitely has one advantage this year than he had last - all the pressure to perform is off him. As 2002's favorite, it looks like he'll be receiving much less anti-votes than he did last year. All the focus on Mario has shifted to Link, so Mario is free to advance as he pleases. Speaking of Link though, Mario didn't manage to put up numbers as impressive as his, although that was to be expected. Shadow will be an interesting opponent, but Mario's first real match won't occur until the third round, where he should be facing Crono.

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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 15-2 / 15 points won / 2 point lost

From: GunMage | Posted: 7/18/2003 10:41:02 PM | Message Detail

Match 18 - Wario vs. Shadow Review

The sounds of anguished bracketholders filled the board throughout the day over what many did not believe was possible, myself included. I did pick Shadow to win, but not this convincingly. This is a rather suprising margin that suggests either Shadow's fanbase is considerable, or Wario just isn't that well liked. Does Shadow have a chance against Mario? I would think not, so my guess is over half the people in the contest will lose only one point from this match (unless something really twisted goes down in Mario vs. Shadow).

The big victory by Shadow discounts the claims that the pic swayed the match, as it seems he would have won regardless. Congrats to one of the first shockers of the GCB.
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Who says magic users can't use guns? Best of both worlds, I say.
(GCB Fanfiction: http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=8835220)

From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 7/18/2003 10:43:02 PM | Message Detail

Match # 18:

Well, this came as a big surprise to many of the posters here, including myself. Although I had an idea that Shadow did have a large fanbase, I never thought he'd be doubling up Wario, a character who's been far more prominent recently. This just goes to show you that you can't count out some of the supposed "underhogs" in this contest.

What does this mean in the future? Really, not much. Shadow will probably be cut down by Mario in Round 2 (although I'm not taking anything for granted anymore), and Knuckles is still probably not favoured against Yuna. But for one day, Sonic Team stood proudly over the juggernaut that is Nintendo.

Match # 19 Preview:

All right, with Scorpion out of the way already, there's nothing standing in the way of Pac-Man's rise to dominance, right? Right? Well, if he wants to have any chance, he'll have to rely on one thing - photo recognition. Kefka's pic isn't that great, but everyone who's played his game remembers his name. Pac will have to get the casual voter to go for him in order to win. We'll see if he can do it.
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RPGP Contributor "DragoonJay@excite.com"; Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/18/2003 11:53:56 PM | Message Detail

Stats website's updated on time for once. ;P
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/19/2003 12:09:49 AM | Message Detail

Updates! Now? Awesome.

*Is off to do Match #18 Review*
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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 15-3 / 15 points won / 3 points lost

From: Haste2 | Posted: 7/19/2003 12:46:15 AM | Message Detail

Kefka's picture "not that good"? It's beyond bad. It's even worse than CATS' pic.

Oh, and I don't think Shadow is up to Sonic. Or even Knuckles. When you look in the eyes of a bunch of casual gamers, I feel that Wario is just another Crash Bandicoot.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/19/2003 1:34:08 AM | Message Detail

The Wario/Shadow match proves it.
Being a hedgehog is the WAY to go!

Hehe....*sigh*....2 points lost for me.
Better than last year, where I had up to 7 points lost at this point.

The Wario loss hurts a bit more since I was actually CONFIDENT in Wario winning. After seeing the results early in the morning, I was looking at the computer with a stunned look on my face. WTF....?

Next year, I must remember to go with the bad-ass characters in close matches. And NOT go with Wario...

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Kefka should beat Pac-Man...he's up by a slim margin...but I don't think Pac-Man can rally enough support to stop a Final Fantasy character when votes start REALLY pouring in.

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Tom Nook and Crono...? Please.....just the first step in Crono's march BACK to the Final 4 :)

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Then...it gets REAL good....the Alucard/Kirby/Ramza part of the bracket. If Kefka is struggling, what does this say about a lesser known Ramza? I'm glad I have Kirby.....for now....

And hopefully, Alucard can represent Castlevania well by making it to Round 3.

I'M OUT!
TIL NEXT TIME....
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MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti
(5)Pac-Man vs (12)Kefka (16/18 pts.)

From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 7/19/2003 1:26:34 PM | Message Detail

Wario vs. Shadow: not really a review, more like implications

For a brief week (until Gordon-Max), Wario holds the 2003 Mr. Driller Award for drawing weak competition, and then proving you're even weaker. We could call it the Pacman-Payne-Mishima award, but that's a mouthful.

It was a shocker, no doubt, and rather than dwell on the why, let's go for the so what.

It looks like these minor Nintendo characters just don't have the oomph to carry the votes the way the big-ticket big-N items can. I know a certain miss Valentine who could attest to that as of last year, too... Wario is no Mario, but yesterday he proved he isn't even close to playing Aeris to Mario's Cloud. It's not just possible to beat Nintendo's supporting cast, it's almost EASY.

Ramza and Lara all of a sudden look a whole lot better in their first-round matches. And in case you didn't know, Magus has G'dorf's number. Squall over Luigi? Very possible. I'm not sure whether this says anything about Bowser-Yoshi, but it should certainly put to rest all those silly rumors about how the winner could challenge Cloud.

But this isn't just Wario's loss, it's Shadow's win. It goes without saying that this makes Knuckles' chances against a similarly weak Square character (Yuna) look good. Knux is like Shadow but in lots more games, ones people have actually played. And Sonic should speed past Aeris uneventfully.
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"You think you're right, but you know you're wrong." -- My friend, master debater

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/19/2003 2:35:01 PM | Message Detail

*sigh*

I wrote out a big huge post last night, but then I accidentally clicked the "x" button and lost all of it because I am dumb. I'll be writing all my posts in Notepad now, so this stuff doesn't happen again. Unfortunately I've lost all enthusiasm for what ever I wrote about before it got deleted, so I'll make this short and sweet.

Match #18

- Shadow kicked all our asses (especially the perfects!)
- He won because of his looks
- He'll lose big time next round to Mario
- +1 Knuckles, but I doubt it's enough to beat Yuna
- Wario sucks

Match #19

- Kefka's pic sucks
- Pac Man's gaining
- It's still anyone's game
- I hope Kefka wins because there's enough matches in the South for me to lose as it is

Match #20

-Hopefully Crono's blowout will be huge enough so we'll know if he can beat Mario or not

East Division Review

- Cloud will win
- Bowser and Yoshi will be closer than we thought
- MC will get his butt handed to him by Aeris
- Zero could be a surprise elite eight member if Sonic doesn't step up

Also, over 1000 people have had their brackets ruined so far (as in choosing a loser to win the entire thing. So don't feel too bad if you've lost two points.
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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 15-3 / 15 points won / 3 points lost

From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 7/19/2003 4:59:18 PM | Message Detail

I think I'll finally start making a point of finding this topic.

Anyhow, I must say that Shadow/Wario took me completely by surprise. My bracket reads Wario, and I didn't even think twice about it. Quite a mistake. In hindsight, I agree with Haste2's comparison of Wario to Crash; sure, he's a big name, you've heard of him... and he still gets owned by the first competent competition.

Pac-Man/Kefka makes me glad I picked Crono over Kefka, despite the rumblings that Kefka could go far. You can assign a lot of the blame to "Lettuce Kefka" if you wish, but it's clear he doesn't have the fan support Crono (or Cloud, Sephy, etc.) has, even if his game is comparably popular on GameFAQs. It seems mutes with katanas and DBZ-esque art are a lot more popular than insane clowns.

(Current bracket progress: 16/18, Kefka to win today)
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If you work 10 hours, you will make 80 dollars. Since you have "worst" compatibility with the government, they will reduce it to 40. -Andvareel

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/19/2003 6:41:06 PM | Message Detail

Match #19 Review

Okay, so I wasn't too sure to do this even an hour ago, but it looks like a done deal for Kefka, so I'm doing it now. Of course, if something big happens afterwards, I'll just re-do it tomorrow. Anyway, this match, much like Tidus vs. Ganondorf, didn't get much hype, because Kefka looked like the obvious winner. Then controversy struck two days before the match, because of Kefka's picture. Of course, it's hard to make Pac-Man look good either, but still...

Of course, the incredibly low margin didn't help calm down things either. However, thanks to Kefka's good showing in the opening hours, he managed to win. Thank goodness he had that 2000-vote lead, because Pac-Man took advantage of the daytime voters.

But how could Kefka, the heavy favorite from the old-school Final Fantasy fans, have find himself so close to a first round defeat? Kefka, runner-up of the 2002 snubbed tournament? I'll refer you to the last part of this match's preview... the fanbase is with CT and FF7-10, NOT FF1-6. However, even knowing that, I expected a convincing victory.

So to make a long story short, we already expected Crono to win, but this is going to be a massacre. Not one of the Tom Nook level, but it's going to be ugly nonetheless. And so much for a mystic Kefka vs. Sephiroth encounter... not only is it not going to happen, but the "mystic" part is gone as well.

Match #20 Preview

Tom Nook, the raccoon with all the odds stacked against him; he has the absolute hardest way to the championship this year. And he's going up against the man who almost made Mario beg for mercy last year. We'll all be eating raccoon meat tomorrow night, as Crono will be on the winning end of one big slaughter. Of course, Nook has his fans and the anti-Square vote on his side, but as seed by previous polls, anti-votes are almost confined to board users (few, but extremely vocal). Yet Animal Crossing managed the upset against FF7, what an obscure title could probably not do, even with all the anti-votes in the world - meaning that AC has at least some sort of following. So I'd say Crono wins 80-20.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 16/18, 0 lost . . . . . T-679 (2124-way)
Today's pick: Kefka

From: Seijun | Posted: 7/19/2003 6:56:53 PM | Message Detail

Hmm... I wonder... could the close margin not be because of Kefka's popularity, but due to a possible increase in Pac-Man voters? Penny Arcade wasn't able to link to this contest before Pac-Man's lost to Scorpion last year, but they were still able to give their fans knowledge that the contest existed and some of them probably returned to help the arcade legend.

Perhaps the added audience gave the old Namco mascot a little boost? Just another way of interpreting this match from a different perspective which may or may not be right. ^^;;

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Congrats, dude. You've defeated a boy with a tiara, his sister and a squirrel.

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/19/2003 6:57:46 PM | Message Detail

Addition To Match #19 Review

I forgot to say... the vote turnout seems ridiculous today. This could be a sign that people don't care as much as we thought about Kefka.

Could this match mean some bad things for Ramza, who's also from a lesser FF as compared to 7-10, and up against a similar character...? Maybe, maybe not. We'll have to wait until Tuesday to see.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 16/18, 0 lost . . . . . T-679 (2124-way)
Today's pick: Kefka

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/19/2003 7:13:57 PM | Message Detail

Hmmm, I doubt it. The ones who go to PA but not here have probably long forgotten this comic strip. Unless there was more than just that, but it just might have been forgotten by the majority of these people as well. Besides, as I mentioned in my addition, the vote turnout is too low to justify outside interference or cheating so far.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 16/18, 0 lost . . . . . T-679 (2124-way)
Today's pick: Kefka

From: cyko | Posted: 7/19/2003 8:24:46 PM | Message Detail

i gotta tell ya, Slowflake, you do a good job of thinking the same way i do.

cyko's Match 18 Review

Wario vs. Shadow the Hedgehog

What happened here? Shadow looks way cooler than the goofy-looking Wario, hands down. and like i said, i'm not surprised Shadow beat him, but 65% ??!? wow. Shadow has impressed me....... but he still won't beat Mario. he might do better than Morrigan did last year, though. it does make the Yuna vs. Knuckles match appear a bit more interesting now. wait and see if the picture plays a factor in that one. if CJayC uses the hotpants picture of Yuna from X2, then Knuckles can kiss his chances goodbye; another picture casualty. which brings me to the next match.........

cyko's Match 19 Review

Pac-Man vs. Kefka

oh my god..... what was up with that picture of Lettuce Kefka?!? it made Wario's picture look like a work of art. don't get me wrong, i love Yoshitaka Amano's art, but that was NOT a good representation of Kefka. but, *phew*, i can relax a little now. *wipes sweat from forehead* it's almost 8:00 and Kefka is up by around 1400 votes, which looks to be a little more than Pac-Man can handle. you gotta give the yellow one a lot of credit, though. he really gave Final Fantasy fanboys a scare, keeping the match very close all day; much closer than most people on the boards expected. honestly, though, Kefka really did get the short end of the stick on his matches. Pac-Man, then Crono, then Mario, then Sephiroth?!?!? come on...... the difficulty of his opponents is ridiculous. seeded somewhere else, he had a serious shot at the sweet sixteen or even farther. ah, well. at least he defeated an icon. i salute you, Kefka, my personal all-time favorite character!!! but, of course i'm still gonna vote Kefka over Crono.

as far as the whole awful picture issue goes, honestly, Kefka is just not that photogenic. he really doesn't have any good pictures that will make the average voter who doesn't know him look and say, "man, that guy looks awesome!!! i'm totally voting for him!!!" ; which is what a picture of Crono or Zero can do. Kefka simply will not get any superficial votes, so he doesn't stand a chance against Crono. being a Kefka fan, however, i know i would appreciate a picture of Kefka that actually LOOKS like Kefka, so he can lose with some dignity instead of as a piece of lettuce. =P

So Kefka may not have won by much, but considering he did it against a powerful character without a single superficial vote, this really does prove that Kefka really has a huge following. maybe in 2004 he won't have as tough of a bracket path.

cyko's Match 20 Preview

Crono vs. Tom Nook

that raccoon is so dead that it's not even funny. oh wait, yeah it is funny. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!!! this will be another huge blowout, on par with the one and two seeds. Animal Crossing does have a following on the boards, but the majority of voters will not care. i can guarantee you that not a single perfect bracket will go down after this match. it'll be a nice breather before the next big match of Kirby vs. Ramza.

Prediction: Crono with 80%
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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: creativename | Posted: 7/19/2003 10:49:41 PM | Message Detail

Wario vs. Shadow

Before the contest, I--like most here--thought this was a no-brainer. It wasn't until I saw the pics a few days before the battle that I started to wonder. After I saw the pics, I thought it was going to be close, and that Shadow could win. However, I certainly didn't expect this kind of blowout.

Kefka vs. Pac-Man

There's the importance of that pic again. While it has yet to actually decide a match IMO, I've certainly changed my mind about the importance of pics. I used to think they were basically irrelevant--now, I think they can make a difference. There's 3 cases this year where I think pics have mattered:

1) Felix vs. Master Chief: Felix, who even most RPG fans have never heard of, did well here--and I don't think it was just due to X-Box hate. IMO, that sword helped out a heck of a lot.

2) Wario vs. Shadow: Again, I don't think the pic altered the actual results--Wario appears to have relatively few actual fans. I am very inclined to believe that it helped though.

3) Kefka vs. Pac-Man: A match that most of us predicted to be a major blow-out is instead a nail-biter. On can say that Kefka is not quite as well known as it had appeared...but I'm more in the "blame the pic" side. I still maintain that "laughing sprite" Kefka, or final battle Kekfa gets close to 60% against Pac-Man.

Though, one wonders: Since we get new pics in the 2nd round, will Kefka fare better against Crono than expected? This once again leads me to a scenario where people underestimate Crono: if Kefka is closer to Crono than anticipated, people will all of a sudden expect him to be squashed by Mario, when in fact Kefka's pic would be the source of the madness.

I'll add this thought too: I'm now with the people who believe that Crono's own DBZ-esque artwork is helping him out a great deal.

Crono vs. Nook

I think that many people will be disappointed if Crono doesn't blow out Nook by as much as Mario whooped on Olimar. And I can see that happening:

1) Firstly, people on these boards judge things by total votes. This is usually pretty silly; total votes cast are subject to too many factors (though Cloud, for one, does seem to draw extra voters). Crono will almost certainly not blow out Nook by as many net votes as Mario did Olimar, because tomorrow is Sunday. There should be less votes tomorrow than usual.
2) Getting 88+% against anybody is impressive, but I don't see Crono quite reaching that level. Maybe 84%-86%.

So even if Crono "disappoints" against Nook, don't conclude anything about Mario vs. Crono from this (unless of course he gets less than 75% against Nook or something like that, which would be shocking).

Responses to Samberdog and Cyko

- Cloud will win
You are truly underestimating Sonic very badly. Though I hope you're right.
- Bowser and Yoshi will be closer than we thought
Actually I think it will be more of a blow-out than we thought. Bowser should win easily. (if I'm wrong, I'll be very surprised)
- MC will get his butt handed to him by Aeris
Yup.
- Zero could be a surprise elite eight member if Sonic doesn't step up
No chance. Or, a very small chance anyway. You again underestimate Sonic. Zero is popular, but he's just not near that level.

as far as the whole awful picture issue goes, honestly, Kefka is just not that photogenic.

I agree, but I have seen some nice in-game Kefka pics. As I mentioned before, the final battle pic probably would've been a good one.

And few would dispute that LAUGHING KEFKA SPRITE PWNS j00!!!

;)

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Nominate Frog in 2004, and support the Ramza Armada!
http://s3.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9058675

From: torey luvullo | Posted: 7/19/2003 10:53:19 PM | Message Detail

this is the greatest. thread. evar.

oh trend gurus - is today being a saturday any excuse for kefka? or is he the weakest winner yet? i mean, i truly expected him to pull away from pac-man and win with ~52% of the vote. certainly, pac-man cooperated - there was no great turnout for the yellow disc on sat nite. but there was none for kefka either.

From: torey luvullo | Posted: 7/19/2003 11:02:35 PM | Message Detail

here - i knew it was here somewhere:

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners

1. Master Chief- 56549
2. Squall- 57392
3. Ganondorf- 58660
4. Magus- 60598
5. KOS-MOS- 61141

it appears that kefka - the villain who put the "lad" in "salad" - is going to top this list by at least 5000 votes and maybe as many as 10000.

doesnt that strike you as somewhat weak?

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/20/2003 12:31:45 AM | Message Detail

The stats site's updated on time two nights in a row! :O

It seems we have another prediction based upset, as only 43.5% picked Kefka to win. That's surprising. Granted it turned out to be close, but I thought Kefka was the easy favorite. Oh well.

Also, why only 93583 voters? An uninspiring matchup, or just a busy weekend?

Speaking of busy weekend, I'll catch you guys later.
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: creativename | Posted: 7/20/2003 12:40:00 AM | Message Detail

So Ceej's stats have been updated. It appears as though 11 perfect brackets were dashed by Kefka's victory.

This match-up very much illustrated the difference of opinion between the "masses" and the "experts". Only 11 of 78 previously perfect users predicted Pac-Man to win (14.1%), whereas 56.53% of all users predicted Pac-Man to win. Thus, for the "experts" it was a massive upset that Pac-Man was even close--while for the masses, Kefka simply winning was an upset. In the end, the consensus opinion of the masses was probably closer to the actual outcome than what the experts were expecting (though the reasons for this will continue to be debated).

It's interesting to note that the only upset so far for both parties has been Shadow over Wario. The only other candidate is Zero over Scorpion, but I think a majority of experts favored Zero in that one. These facts illustrate Shadow as being quite the world-beater.
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Nominate Frog in 2004, and support the Ramza Armada!
http://s3.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9058675

From: Camwi | Posted: 7/20/2003 12:41:35 AM | Message Detail

solarshadow = My hero

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Finally back from being banned since 10/9/02.. (Note lack of karma)
Official sponsor for Magus in the 2003 Summer Contest ^_^

From: creativename | Posted: 7/20/2003 12:49:04 AM | Message Detail

Another interesting thing is that there have already been 5 first round upsets based on all entries this year, compared to only 2 total first round upsets last year (Morrigan's and Tina's victories). Though Alucard's, Kyo's, and Jill's matches were each basically a pick-'em last year, and if you count those then the number evens out. Shadow has Morrigan beat, though, in terms of "most surprising upset": 42.3% of brackets thought Morrigan would beat Spyro, whereas only 42.11% thought Shadow would beat Wario.

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Nominate Frog in 2004, and support the Ramza Armada!
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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/20/2003 12:54:03 AM | Message Detail

Shadow`s victory makes people WORRY about Knuckles against Yuna? If anything, it helps me to see that Knuckles should be able to beat her. She`s around the popularity level of Tidus, who would not be able to beat Knuckles at all. Anti-votes matter in close matches, and this will be a close match. All of the anti votes will go against Yuna because she`s a semi-disliked SQUARE character from a Final Fantasy. Not to mention that Knuckles is often more well-liked among Sonic`s very own fans.
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SUMMER CONTEST STATS: 18/19 Current Pick: (4)Crono vs (13)Tom Nook, Boards Hunted: 461

From: cyko | Posted: 7/20/2003 12:54:51 AM | Message Detail

wow, two upsets in a row; 42.1%, then 43.5% predicted correctly. this first round has been tough.

Top 5 Vote getters

1. Cloud Strife- 94086
2. Link- 92998
3. Mario- 89189
4. Samus Aran- 81123
5. Bowser- 74164

Top 5 Most Pathetic Characters (Least Votes)

1. Aiai- 8802
2. Captain Olimar- 11678
3. CATS- 14168
4. Ratchet- 24099
5. Ness- 24627

Top 5 Blowouts (Biggest Vote Difference)

1. Link over Aiai- 84196
2. Cloud over Cats- 79918
3. Mario over Captain Olimar- 77511
4. Samus over Isaac- 54563
5. Bowser over Ness- 49537

Top 5 Closest Matches

1. Ganondorf over Tidus- 1582
2. Kefka over Pac-Man- 1773
3. Master Chief over Felix- 6318
4. Squall over Jill Valentine- 19118
5. Kos-Mos over Crash Bandicoot- 23631

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers

1. Tidus- 57078
2. Felix- 50231
3. Pac-Man- 45905
4. Scorpion- 41916
5. Tails- 38685

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners

1. Kefka- 47678
2. Master Chief- 56549
3. Squall- 57392
4. Ganondorf- 58660
5. Magus- 60598

Top 5 Biggest Vote Totals

1. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 115738
2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 112801
3. Auron vs. Tails- 108884
4. Cloud vs. CATS- 108254
5. Samus vs. Isaac- 107683

Top 5 Smallest Vote Totals

1. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 91464
2. Yoshi vs. Conker- 92418
3. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 93583
4. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 94649
5. Squall vs. Jill- 95666

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Pick (Based on Number of Correct Contest Entries)

1. Link vs. Aiai- 99.1%
2. Mario vs. Captain Olimar- 98.0%
3. Cloud vs. CATS- 94.9%
4. Samus vs. Isaac- 93.8%
5. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 87.9%

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Pick

1. Wario vs. Shadow the Hedgehog- 42.1%
2. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 42.5%
3. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 43.5%
4. Zero vs. Scorpion- 47.3%
5. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 47.7%

there's already five matches that less than half of all contestants predicted correctly, and there is still four or five close matches to go......

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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Ringworm | Posted: 7/20/2003 1:56:06 AM | Message Detail

Good stuff.

I thought I'd try and collect some different stats to what everybody else seems to be doing, and try to compare the entrants of the contests votes, to non-entrants. Assuming all people who entered voted with their bracket every day, I compiled the following tables (I'll put yesterdays results on soon):

http://www.geocities.com/ringwormrulez/stats.html

If you check this out, it seems that a lot of characters are more popular with non-entrants, than people that entered the contest. Take Shadow for example. 42.1% of entrants picked Shadow (17291), meaning that 50595 non-entrants picked Shadow (79.6% of the non-entrants).

Sure, there's a few big assumptions in this analysis. Take from it what you will, but maybe this helps explain the shock results. It also gives some idea of how the "Casual voter" will vote. Maybe the picture does have a bigger effect on the results than we are giving it credit for.

As for my analysis of past matches, I decided not to bother. I'll do some matches from now on, but there's plenty of good discussion on older matches already.
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Everyone that says ''There's no such thing as a stupid question'', has obviously never visited this board.
Match 20 tip: Crono

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/20/2003 10:24:37 AM | Message Detail

Interesting Stats Ringworm.

So does this mean characters like Samus and Sonic, who only scored 65% and 60% of outside votes are weaker than we thought?
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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 15-3 / 15 points won / 3 points lost

From: HyperBlast Xan | Posted: 7/20/2003 10:26:47 AM | Message Detail

Intresting ringworm.
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|~Xan~|
"You never learned anything... and never will" - Professor Xavier, X-Men Evolution

From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 7/20/2003 11:03:31 AM | Message Detail

Ringworm's stats interest me greatly. Granted, there are too many assumptions for them to be wholly accurate, but it's a neat way to look at the matches, regardless.

Let's use them to take a closer look at the major issue of the day: the picture bias. According to these statistics, the top five characters who most swung the casual voters were

Shadow, 37.5% - Sonic looks good enough on his own, but make him blacker and more evil looking, and you get the epitome of cool. Especially when paired against a fat yellow rip-off. Was that what went through the casual voter's head before he made his choice?

KOS-MOS, 33.4% - What's this? An attractive young robot-lady in the anime style? Whether or not the dreaded TJF played a role, that poor bandicoot never had a chance at winning over the casual vote.

Felix, 32.8% - The classic young, cape-wearing, sword-wielding RPG hero, drawn in the anime style. This is just a great picture; it certainly wouldn't be hard to see how it could pull so many votes away from a gun-less Master Chief.

Isaac, 29.8% - Yet another anime-style RPG hero, though his pic isn't quite as good as that of his friend. Even against one of the greatest character designs ever in Samus, I could see how this might swing many casual voters.

Ken, 25.2% - Ok, this picture isn't anything special (it's the same one from last year, even). Sorry, Sonic, but you have no excuse for losing casual votes to Ken, a character with a worse picture and poorer name recognition. A more interesting pic, though, was that of #6 on the list...

Zero, 24.5% - A big, powerful robot, again in the anime style, complete with a long, flowing cape and an oversized sword? Even with good name recognition, the undead ninja didn't have much of a chance with the casuals.

Yeah, as much as I hate to admit it, I think the pics are playing a much bigger factor this year. But I agree that no match yet has been won by a character who would have lost were we only given names to vote on. But with percentage swings like these, that day can't be too far off now...

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the-elite.net

From: creativename | Posted: 7/20/2003 3:57:46 PM | Message Detail

Ringworm,
You seem to be assuming 100% entrant loyalty to bracks. No offense, but I find this to be completely unrealistic. I'm sure you're aware that there are too many assumptions in your system, but I don't think you realize just how inaccurate it is.

I see most users as having no problems whatsoever voting outside their brackets. Bracket-loyalty is most likely a completely insignificant factor. It is most certainly utterly inconceivable that there will be the perfectly linear relationship where you can just subtract the entry picks from the total votes, and get the votes among people who have entries.

Not to mention the fact that not all people who have entries will vote every day--in fact, it is most likely less than half.

So does this mean characters like Samus and Sonic, who only scored 65% and 60% of outside votes are weaker than we thought?

No, it probably means nothing. I see very little difference between voters who have brackets, and voters without...except, perhaps, a more "hardcore" tilt among the bracket-makes, in terms of their voting; the people who made brackets are presumably more active at this site, and thus have a greater awareness of obscure characters. But even that is a highly questionable hypotheses, and I myself doubt it's validity. Most brackets picked Pac-Man, for instance, even though the real experts thought the possibly of Pac-Man winning was insignificant...it's tough to conclude anything with the added complexity of the pic-factor, but this is still probably enough to discount the "People with and without brackets come from radically different bracket expectation populations" theory. Ringworm's system is based on a "People with and without brackets from from radically different voting populations" assumption, which, again, is beyond suspect.
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Nominate Frog in 2004, and support the Ramza Armada!
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/20/2003 4:21:20 PM | Message Detail

I, too, think Ringworm's stats rely too much on unrealistic assumptions. I mean, usually people will have no problem voting against their brackets in either already obvious victories or matches that won't cost too many points, and ALL of the matches were at least one of these two so far. With that, on to the usual analysis.

Match #20 Review

Wow, looks like Mario's momentum advantage is nulled here. Tom Nook receives a much worse beating than Simon Belmont last year. Nook is recent and fresher than Belmont in people's minds, but this seems unimportant here, as his opponent proved last year. Now, with one huge blowout in each side, Crono seems to have a much easier fight to the Sweet 16 then Mario, as Shadow's thought by some to be able to take down the plumber... but so was Morrigan last year...

Match #21 Preview

Another breather before all hell breaks loose. Alucard is the overwhelming favorite, as only Olimar had less winning brackets than Bomberman. Not much to say here, except that there really is much more interest in the identity of Alucard's round 2 opponent...
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 17/19, 0 lost . . . . . T-548 (1617-way)
Today's pick: Crono

From: Ringworm | Posted: 7/20/2003 5:49:08 PM | Message Detail

I'll admit there were a lot of assumptions needed to be made there. Probably highly inaccurate, I agree. Just wondered what the results would be like before I tried it, and I think it was an interesting result, which is why I posted it.
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Everyone that says ''There's no such thing as a stupid question'', has obviously never visited this board.
Match 20 tip: Crono

From: DebonairBassman | Posted: 7/20/2003 5:51:23 PM | Message Detail

Well thought out Ringworm...
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Boondock Saints - WATCH THIS MOVIE
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From: creativename | Posted: 7/20/2003 6:02:43 PM | Message Detail

Days-of-the-Week Statistics

I calculated some stats based on last year's results. The results below show the average total votes received on that day of the week last year, by round; the count is displayed in parentheses:

ROUND 1
Saturday__: 55,810.25 ___(4)
Monday___: 65,429.6 ___(5)
Tuesdsay__: 61,320.8 ___(5)
Wednesday: 61,900.2 ___(5)
Thursday__: 58,491.6 ___(5)
Friday____: 60,658.5 ___(4)
Sunday___: 56,780.75 ___(4)
Overall Average of Round 1: 60,272.16 (32)

ROUND 2
Saturday__: 59,117 ___(2)
Monday___: 70,315.5 ___(2)
Tuesdsay__: 66,202 ___(2)
Wednesday: 61,556 ___(2)
Thursday__: 66,493.5 ___(2)
Friday____: 66,981 ___(3)
Sunday___: 60,118.7 ___(3)
Overall Average of Round 2: 64,291.6875 (16)

ROUND 3
Saturday__: 80,598.5 ___(2)
Monday___: 74,365 ___(1)
Tuesdsay__: 74,059 ___(1)
Wednesday: 75,247 ___(1)
Thursday__: 68,475 ___(1)
Friday____: 85,273 ___(1)
Sunday___: 83,912 ___(1)
Overall Average of Round 3: 77,816 (8)

ROUND 4
Saturday__: N/A ___(0)
Monday___: 129,703 ___(1)
Tuesdsay__: 99,214 ___(1)
Wednesday: 91,535 ___(1)
Thursday__: 97,224 ___(1)
Friday____: N/A ___(0)
Sunday___: N/A ___(0)
Overall Average of Round 4: 104,419 (4)

ROUND 5:
Saturday__: N/A ___(0)
Monday___: N/A ___(0)
Tuesdsay__: N/A ___(0)
Wednesday: N/A ___(0)
Thursday__: N/A ___(0)
Friday____: 107,547 ___(1)
Sunday___: 102,870 ___(1)
Overall Average of Round 5: 105,208.5 (2)

ROUND 6:
Saturday__: 98,211 ___(1)
Monday___: N/A ___(0)
Tuesdsay__: N/A ___(0)
Wednesday: N/A ___(0)
Thursday__: N/A ___(0)
Friday____: N/A ___(0)
Sunday___: N/A ___(0)
Overall Average of Round 6: 98,211 (1)

It is apparent that total votes have drastically increased by Round 3. Also, the average votes by day numbers start to mean little, because of the small sample sizes.

Rounds 1 and 2 seem to have similar vote totals, so I grouped them together in hopes of gaining a meaningful sample. Though the sample sizes remain small (48 total days, as little as 6 days per Day of the week), there are patterns which are evident.

AVERAGE BY DAY OF ROUNDS 1 AND 2:
Saturday__: 56,912.5 ___(6)
Monday___: 66,825.6 ___(7)
Tuesdsay__: 62,715.4 ___(7)
Wednesday: 61,801.9 ___(7)
Thursday__: 60,777.9 ___(7)
Friday____: 63,368.1 ___(7)
Sunday___: 58,211.3 ___(7)

Weekends--as expected--have the lowest vote totals. The weekdays are pretty similar to each other, except for Monday. Mondays seem to have the highest activity levels. Coincidentally, Cloud's matches seem to have all fallen on Mondays, thus obfuscating the true cause of the higher Monday totals. It perhaps shouldn't be surprising that the highest vote totals were for Mario Vs. Cloud, which contained Cloud as well as being on a Monday.

Taking the average of 1st and 2nd round match-ups that didn't contain Cloud results in a figure of 63,833.2, based on 5 days. This is still the highest, but not by a significant amount--without Cloud, Monday seems to be more or less just another weekday.

There really isn't much of substance to conclude here, except that Weekdays > Weekends in terms of voter turnout. Even this is by a relatively small amount; something on the order of 10%. This would only be relevant to those that participate in MMX's Prophet Challenges.
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Nominate Frog in 2004, and support the Ramza Armada!
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From: cyko | Posted: 7/20/2003 11:09:33 PM | Message Detail

interesting observations, Ringworm, but i also have to agree that too many assumptions are included there. also, did you figure the anti-vote in there anywhere? for example: while i'm sure Felix did get a small boost from his better picture (i mean, come on, Master Chief didn't even have a gun in his photo), the anti-x-box votes far outnumbered any superficial votes.

cyko's Match 20 Review

Crono vs. Tom Nook

raccoon roadkill anyone? it's fresh out of the battle arena? as expected, Crono handled the evil Tom Nook with great ease. at 11:00 he has about 85500 votes and is up by over 70000. not quite as impressive as Mario's showing this time, does it really matter? Tom Nook might be a bit tougher opponent than Olimar, but either way, Crono vs. Mario is shaping up to be a very close match again. which is exactly what CJayC wanted.

cyko's Match 21 Preview

Alucard vs. Bomberman

as one of the most highly anticipated matches of the first round approaches, we get to relax one more day and watch Alucard pound Bomberman. well, maybe not a thorough pounding, but look at the facts. Alucard is from Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, which is widely regarded as the best and most popular Castlevania game in the series and one of the best playstation games ever. and besides that, Castlevania itself has much more of a following than Bomberman does. as far as the picture goes, neither has a real advantage. Alucard looks pretty femmie, while Bomberman looks like a distorted cartoon. Alucard also has a lot more support and fans on the boards, while only seven people had Bomberman going all the way in their bracket(even though that didn't seem to help Wario much).

then there are the numbers from last year. Alucard beat Tails by 5326 and Duke Nukem by 13419 before losing to Cloud in the third round. Bomberman blewout Kane from Command & Conquer (who? lol) by almost 30000 and lost to Jill Valentine in the second round. in their losing efforts, Alucard managed 22578 (30.4%) against Cloud while Bomberman pulled 27432 (42.0%) against Jill. hmmmmmmmm............ actually, i hadn't noticed that last stat before. Cloud is a heck of a lot tougher than Jill, but Bomberman did pretty well for someone who is supposed to be a pushover. this match might be closer than we all thought........

but i am banking on Catlevania fans pushing Alucard over the top.
prediction: Alucard with 65%

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/21/2003 1:54:56 AM | Message Detail

Solarshadow... Just wanted to let you know that the PacMan/Kefka stats don't show up when I choose "All Stats" instead of "First Round Stats."

Hot day-by-day stats creativename. Makes one wonder, why Monday?
Oh yeah, because of Cloud.

Match #19 - Pac-Man VS Kefka - Review

Pac-Man - 45905 / 49.05%
Kefka - 47678 / 50.95%

Total - 93583 (17th highest)

Prediction Percentage - 43.5% (3rd hardest)
My Pick - Kefka
Analysis Topic Pick - Kefka
"Odds" Pick - Kefka

Brackets Ruined - 104

That was certainly closer than I expected. Of course, most thought Pac-Man would take the match, although Kefka was almost unanimously named in the analysis topic, and judging by the amount of perfects that chose him, he was the clear "elite" favorite. This match wasn't even supposed to be close. Seeing Scorpion lose to Zero wasn't exactly encouraging for Pac-Man, yet he still managed to make a match against an old school FF fan favorite the biggest nailbiter of the contest. So what happened? It's unlikely that Pac-Man has gained any popularity over the past year, so we must have overestimated Kefka. The evil clown certainly wasn't the favorite with the daytime voters, but fortunately Kefka managed to build enough of a lead to hang in there. I think the results would have been different had Kefka had a better, or more clear picture. Not being able to recognize the character you're voting for is never a good thing. It's tough to prove, but I think a good picture can make all the difference in a close match. Of course, the fact that it was close doesn't say much for Kefka. Many predicted him going quite far, I was even concerned he had a chance against Crono for a while. I suppose the support just isn't there, for reasons others have mentioned. Kefka will lose next round, Crono shouldn't even have to break a sweat. Does this offer any insight into the Kirby/Ramza match? None other that "fringe" FF characters probably aren't quite as popular as their mainstream counterparts. Kirby definitely has a chance.

Good job Crono! I'll wait for full stats before a write up, but things are definitely in mix for a massive round three Mario/Crono rematch spectacular!

Alucard wins handedly, but his margin is neither too wide nor narrow to give much insight on his chances in round two. Also, Bomberman is a stud.

---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 17-3 / 17 points won / 3 points lost

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/21/2003 2:02:58 AM | Message Detail

Not enough time to do a thorough post now, but I do have a small comment to add:

If there's any match where pictures really have an effect, it's got to be Pac-Man vs. Kefka.

No, not because Kefka looks awful...
Because I could even see some dedicated FF6 fans seeing the poll pic, going "Hey, Pac-Man," and voting for him before they realized who the other choice was.

From: kawaiifan | Posted: 7/21/2003 3:43:21 PM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: kawaiifan | Posted: 7/21/2003 3:49:44 PM | Message Detail

Hope I'm not out of line here (since this is the stats thread), but I would like to offer another viewpoint on Slowflake's observations of Crono's matches.

... Tom Nook receives a much worse beating than Simon Belmont last year. Nook is recent and fresher than Belmont in people's minds, but this seems unimportant here, as his opponent proved last year.

My feelings are, Belmont is a beloved oldschool character, who had the misfortune of running right into a massively popular juggernaut representing the bygone Square/Nintendo alliance. The oldschool vote was split, with most of it going to Belmont, and the Nintendo vote was split too. Belmont also received the not-insignificant Castlevania vote -- witness Alucard's performance today. The Square vote and the newschool vote all went to Crono, since he's newer than Belmont.

Nook, on the other hand, is from a niche game for a secondary newschool system ... with the clincher being that it seems that here even the people who have played Nook's game dislike him, since, according to their comments, he's a shopkeeper who charges the player extortionate prices for items. Crono also picked up the entire Square vote as before, the entire oldschool vote, and probably most of the Nintendo vote to boot. I feel that the majority of Nook's votes likely came from the anti-Square contingent.

So I feel that it makes sense that Belmont did considerably better against Crono than Nook did. Just my two euros :)

Congratulations Crono! ... and Crono vs. Mario, II, is shaping up to be as exciting as the first.

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Supporting Nakoruru (and her little sister Rimururu too!) for nomination in 2004!

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/21/2003 5:01:50 PM | Message Detail

Thanks Kawaiifan, I didn't play Animal Crossing, so your insight is quite helpful. Question: are there other shopkeepers in AC? Because if there aren't, how can you say what he sells you is overpriced, without any point of comparison? Poor, poor Resetti, he's probably even more hated...

Match #21 Review

Wow, you can blow up a TV to smithereens, that's great. But can you set Dracula's son on fire? Alucard proved to be an even greater challenge than Jugmeister Valentine for Bomberman, and by about 6%. So what does that say for Alucard? That he won't have trouble with Kirby next round, since Jill also eliminated him last year... but that's beating a dead horse. Ramza, though, could be another problem...

(Last thought... why didn't CJayC use the TV trick for CATS instead of the eggplant picture?)

Match #22 Preview

This is it, the biggest first round match-up in SC history is just hours away now. It's sad, really sad, that one of them has to go, considering who's up in the following match (that one should be dubbed Divisional Round Piss Break in MMXcalibur's Prophet Challenge). But the excitement is understandable... a second-rate Nintendo character against a second-rate Square name.

As mentioned earlier, today's result shows that Kirby has no chance in hell against Alucard... so it will take a convincing victory from Ramza in order to shake Alucard's grip on this 4-pack. Unlikely to happen, though, as Kirby has tons of support. Plus, Kefka has shown us that Square and FF alone won't push a character to an easy win. We know 7 to 10 are popular with the voters, 6 much less, but where's Tactics in all of that? 6 and Tactics are similar: less people have played them, but those who did often prefer them to 7-10. What Tactics might have over 6: Playstation, so after the boom caused by 7. What 6 might have over Tactics: not a numbered game, so it could be considered "spinoff". (Note the "might" and the "could".)

The problem with Kirby is that he seems to suffer from the CATS syndrome: massive support on the board, yet it doesn't seem to translate into votes come the poll.

From a board point of view... this is going to be hell. We won't get to the level of madness reached during Mario vs. Cloud, but expect flame wars left, right, up, down, behind and in front. Ertyu KoS, finally? Let's cross our fingers...
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 18/20, 0 lost . . . . . Position unknown
Today's pick: Alucard

From: kawaiifan | Posted: 7/22/2003 1:31:49 AM | Message Detail

Thanks Kawaiifan, I didn't play Animal Crossing, so your insight is quite helpful.

Thank you :)

Question: are there other shopkeepers in AC? Because if there aren't, how can you say what he sells you is overpriced, without any point of comparison?

I'm afraid I don't know, sorry. I haven't played it either.... I was just parroting what I'd read on the board, from people who presumably indeed have played it. (Many of which went something like, 'Poor Tom Nook? No, he's RICH Tom Nook, with all that money that he charged me!') :)

Poor, poor Resetti, he's probably even more hated...

According to Resetti's character summary on the link from the full bracket: From the Animal Crossing series. Angry mole who's ready to jump all over you for not saving your game properly. Wow, sounds like a real fan favourite there. ;)

Resetti's actual support appears to be negligible. Even worse for him, I haven't seen any evidence of Mega Man haters. Both Nintendo and Square, as well as some smaller vote blocks, tend to draw a minority of anti-fans who will vote against their characters.
Mega Man looks to be virtually immune to this. Perhaps it's due in part to the Blue Bomber having appeared on a variety of platforms, both oldschool and newschool, nullifying both platform and age as possible points of contention in his case.
Since I'm oldschool, I fondly remember his beginnings on the NES, especially Mega Man 2 and 3. Newschool fans will identify him with his more recent adventures.
Or, as the character summary put it concisely: From the Mega Man series. Whether he's Rock, X, .EXE, or Barrel, he's still the blue bomber we all know and love.

AiAi probably received some anti-Nintendo votes, even though he's on Nintendo himself, since he's so little-known and his opponent so famous. Nook's primary source of votes was likely the anti-Square group.
All that I foresee Resetti getting are underdog-fans, disgruntled bracketeers casting futile protest votes out of frustration over previous matches ... and, a few plain nonconformists. :)
All in all, Resetti might end up with a total of about four or five thousand, to Mega Man's 90k+.

In other words, the biggest blowout of the entire tournament.

Last year, the Blue Bomber utterly annihilated both Ms. Pacman and Serious Sam (admittedly two non-serious opponents), permitting them less than six thousand votes each. The vote ratios were more than eleven to one in both cases. He then fell to the extremely popular Sephiroth, but not before a very close match that gave the latter his most severe scare of the tournament (not counting his loss to Link). Resetti should be no tougher than Ms. Pacman or Serious Sam ... if even that.

(By the way, I completely agree with you about Kirby having the CATS syndrome.)

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Supporting Nakoruru (and her little sister Rimururu too!) for nomination in 2004!

From: cyko | Posted: 7/22/2003 4:42:44 PM | Message Detail

Top 5 Vote Getters

1. Cloud Strife- 94086
2. Link- 92998
3. Mario- 89189
4. Crono- 88469
5. Samus Aran- 81123

Top 5 Most Pathetic Characters (Least Votes)

1. Aiai- 8802
2. Captain Olimar- 11678
3. CATS- 14168
4. Tom Nook- 14631
5. Ratchet- 24099

Top 5 Blowouts (Biggest Vote Difference)

1. Link over Aiai- 84196
2. Cloud over Cats- 79918
3. Mario over Captain Olimar- 77511
4. Crono over Tom Nook- 73838
5. Samus over Isaac- 54563

Top 5 Closest Matches

1. Ganondorf over Tidus- 1582
2. Kefka over Pac-Man- 1773
3. Master Chief over Felix- 6318
4. Squall over Jill Valentine- 19118
5. Kos-Mos over Crash Bandicoot- 23631

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers

1. Tidus- 57078
2. Felix- 50231
3. Pac-Man- 45905
4. Scorpion- 41916
5. Tails- 38685

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners

1. Kefka- 47678
2. Master Chief- 56549
3. Squall- 57392
4. Ganondorf- 58660
5. Magus- 60598

Top 5 Biggest Vote Totals

1. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 115738
2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 112801
3. Auron vs. Tails- 108884
4. Cloud vs. CATS- 108254
5. Samus vs. Isaac- 107683

Top 5 Smallest Vote Totals

1. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 91464
2. Yoshi vs. Conker- 92418
3. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 93583
4. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 94649
5. Squall vs. Jill- 95666

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Pick (Based on Number of Correct Contest Entries)

1. Link vs. Aiai- 99.1%
2. Mario vs. Captain Olimar- 98.0%
3. Cloud vs. CATS- 94.9%
4. Samus vs. Isaac- 93.8%
5. Crono vs. Tom Nook- 92.8%

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Pick

1. Wario vs. Shadow the Hedgehog- 42.1%
2. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 42.5%
3. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 43.5%
4. Zero vs. Scorpion- 47.3%
5. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 47.7%

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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/22/2003 4:47:31 PM | Message Detail

(>'.')> Match #22 Review <('.'<)

Wow, Kirby's doing great today, much better than most expected. I guess this proves the Kefka theorem: Square and FF alone won't make a character win over a non-Square second-rate character, as Nintendo fanboys accused. (Granted, I'm a Nintendo fan, but I thought this theory was bull anyway). Still, it's a little surprising to see Kirby winning by such a comfortable margin, since he was beat by Jill, who was beat by Squall. And I didn't expect to see Ramza so far behind Squall, who, may I remind you, has his own haters. Still, despite Kirby's win, he will still have a tough time scoring 40% against Alucard.

Re-wow, this board indeed behaves much better than last year. Mario vs. Crono might even be tolerable! Okay, so maybe I'm a little optimistic.

Match #23 Preview

Snorefest, piss break, call it what you want, the only matches that were more worthless than this one were Gordon's and Max's R1 matches last year. Max Payne was squashed by Scorpion, and Gordon was beaten rather convincingly by Tina. But while Gordon's loss was smaller than Max's, you have to take the opponent into account. Cinderella story or unknown character with implants the size of Bowser? Shout HL2 all you want, Gordon will still bring the same reaction: who's that guy? More people played HL, true, but Max Payne takes a lot more place in his game(s?). So Max's the safe pick here. No matter what, though, a wrong pick will cost only one point... unless you have the winner beating Sephiroth.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 19/21, 0 lost . . . . . T-486 (1412-way)
Today's pick: Kirby

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/22/2003 4:50:58 PM | Message Detail

Divisional Round Piss Break?

XD

Good one, Slowflake.
Didn't think of that one. Hehe..

And I'm sorry I don't add as much analysis as last year or before....but all my analysis is in the Prophet Challenges.

You understand, right?
If you don't, let me explain with these two puppets....

But I can still add my 2 doll...er...cents.
Yeah, I'm a cheapskate....
=P

Max wins based on game recognition. (Max Payne's game is "Max Payne", that should net a victory...I think...this one is hard to call...)

AND

Sephiroth owns Raziel in every way possible.

AND

Solid Snake shows Raiden how it's done in not only MGS2, but in the Summer Contest as well.

I'm out.....
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MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti
(7)Gordon Freeman vs (10)Max Payne (20/22 pts.)

From: cyko | Posted: 7/22/2003 5:12:32 PM | Message Detail

cyko's Match 21 Review

Alucard vs. Bomberman

ho-hum. not much exciting here. Alucard wins with almost two thirds of the vote. no surprises here, except maybe the fact that 12 perfects dropped. but if you ask me, 64.5% isn't all that impressive against Bomberman. Alucard will have to step it up to take out Kirby next round. speaking of Kirby.....

cyko's Match 22 Review

Kirby vs. Ramza

What happened here?!? this was supposed to be the biggest match of the division, not Pac-Man vs. Kefka! instead, Kirby is comfortably ahead with nearly 60% of the vote and flames on the board have been kind of slim. i don't understand how Kirby is so far ahead against the mighty Final Fantasy machine. I did pick Kirby to win, but i (along with most of this board) though it would be a heck of a lot closer, maybe even decided by a few hundred votes. i guess it proves further how less-mainstream Final Fantasy games (6 and Tactics) really do get less support than the bigger ones (7 and X). either that or Kirby has really gained some popularity over the past year. maybe it is that cartoon show. at the rate he's going, he just might be able to take down Alucard, too.

cyko's Match 23 Preview

Gordon Freeman vs. Max Payne

oh, yay. this is the match of characters that noone cares about. lowest voter turnout of the tournament, guaranteed. you have the cookie-cutter alien fighting hero from Half-Life fighting the constipated ex-cop from Max Payne. and all they are fighting for is the privilege of getting destroyed by Sephiroth in the second round. so, who will win? well, the picture doesn't really look great for either character. but, in the words of MMX Calibur: "Gordon Freeman is not from a game called Gordon Freeman." not very many people know who Gordon is, let alone care what game he is from. Max isn't much more recognizable, but at least most people have heard of the game "Max Payne" and at least figure out what game Max is from. and last year, at least Max defeated Dirk the Daring easily with 76% of the vote before losing to Scorpion in round 2. Gordon lost in the first around against Tina Armstrong's breasts with only 40% of the vote. like i said before though, noone really cares about this match. except for my one point on the bracket.

prediction: Max Payne with 60%

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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: cyko | Posted: 7/22/2003 10:34:18 PM | Message Detail

Question: are there other shopkeepers in AC? Because if there aren't, how can you say what he sells you is overpriced, without any point of comparison? Poor, poor Resetti, he's probably even more hated...

Animal Crossing spoilers

in answer to your questions, Slowflake, i have played Animal Crossing and Tom Nook is a straight up extortionist. he's the only shopkeeper in the game and when he charges you his ridiculous prices, he turns his back to your character and laughs about how rich he is getting off of you. at the beginning of the game, he charges you 100000 bells or something like that for a one room house and he immediately puts you to work in his shop to pay off your debt. and basically one of the main goals of the game is to pay off the evil raccoon so he will leave you alone. Tom Nook is a bastard and not well liked by too many people, even Animal Crossing fans.

Mr. Resetti, on the other hand, is a joke character, sort of like CATS, only much funnier. nobody really hates Mr. Resetti, but he's not really a main character of Animal Crossing. basically, Animal Crossing is a very random game and what you find in a particular spot at a certain time one game might be different in someone else's game. and if you get something you don't want, you can simply reset with out saving until you do get something you want. that's where Mr. Resetti comes in. he is a character the programmers put in to deter you from resetting without saving. at first he tells you nicely not to reset, but each time you reset consecutively, he gets more and more agitated until he snaps and is literally screaming at you not to reset anymore. he begs, pleads, bribes, yells, pretends he doesn't really care, and at one point gets so upset that he has a heart attack and is replaced by his brother for a while. it is absolutely hilarious. you can screw with Mr. Resetti for about an hour straigh without him repeating himself. he is one of the funniest things i have ever seen in a video game. i didn't like Animal Crossing that much, but the game is seriously worth a rental just to watch Mr. Resetti.

it's too bad Mr. Resetti has to take on a great character like Megaman, because he really is funny, but he will be lucky if he breaks 10000 votes.

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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/23/2003 12:40:46 AM | Message Detail

80% predicted Kirby would win the match!

I can't believe it.
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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 19-3 / 19 points won / 3 points lost

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