| Stats & Discussion - Summer 2003 Contest |
| | | Page 4 of 10 | | | | | From: Yesmar | Posted: 7/14/2003 5:45:20 PM | Message Detail |
Yikes!
Current Match:
Felix
is doing really good. He is arguably less popular than Isaac and yet is
doing significantly better, admittedly against a weaker opponent. This
does bode much better for my round two pick of Aeris over Master Cheif
though. And also, the number of perfects should decrease somewhat,
although not as much as they will tomorrow. Speaking of tomorrow...
Next Match:
I
personally have Zero winning, although the match is going to be very
close no matter who wins. Zero has tons of support of Megaman support
and has the added bonus of being the star of his own games. Scorpion
may be very popular but in fighting games there's not usually a "main"
character, at least not in traditional terms.
Now there are two matches I want to discuss. One I think is being underrated, while the other is being overrated.
Underrated:
Pac-Man Vs. Kefka
Everyone's
assuming this will be a lock for Kefka. Don't get me wrong. I love
Kefka to death, but there's just something about Pac-Man. I know people
say Keka>Scorpion (arguably) and Scorpion>Pac-Man, so
Kefka>Pac-Man.
However, people aren't taking into account
what the characters look like. Even if you haven't heard of Scorpion or
played his games, you may still vote for him because he looks cooler
than Pac-Man. I highly doubt that Kefka's looks will sway anybody's
votes.
Also, Pac-Man is right up there with Mario as most
recognized video game figure. Your mom knows who Pac-Man is. Bantu
tribesman know who Pac-Man is. Of course, neither of these two will be
voting, but this is still something to think about.
Overrated:
Kirby Vs. Ramza
A
lot of people that played FFT may have loved it, but how many people
have played it? Plus, Kirby fans will undoubtedly be wanting revenge
for last year.
---
The wind...it blows--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker | | From: cyko | Posted: 7/14/2003 6:24:45 PM | Message Detail |
i
can't really say anything about the Zero vs. Scorpion match that wasn't
already explained quite well by both Slowflake and MMXCalibur in his
prophet prediction, so here are a few stat lists instead. Solarshadow
had several stat lists last year, but since he's a little busy, i will
help him get started. ^_^
Top 5 Vote getters
1. Cloud Strife- 94086
2. Link- 92998
3. Samus Aran- 81123
4. Bowser- 74164
5. Luigi- 70550
Top 5 Most Pathetic Characters (Least Votes)
1. Aiai- 8802
2. CATS- 14168
3. Ratchet- 24099
4. Ness- 24627
5. Isaac- 26560
Top 5 Blowouts (Biggest Vote Difference)
1. Link over Aiai- 84196
2. Cloud over Cats- 79918
3. Samus over Isaac- 54563
4. Bowser over Ness- 49537
5. Luigi over Ratchet- 46451
Top 5 Closest Matches
1. Ganondorf over Tidus- 1582
2. Squall over Jill Valentine- 19118
3. Kos-Mos over Crash Bandicoot- 23631
4. Magus over Sam Fisher- 29732
5. Yoshi over Conker- 30424
Top 5 Most Impressive Losers
1. Tidus- 57078
2. Tails- 38685
3. Jill Valentine- 38274
4. Crash Bandicoot- 37510
5. Sora- 32614
Top 5 Least Impressive Winners
1. Squall- 57392
2. Ganondorf- 58660
3. Magus- 60598
4. KOS-MOS- 61141
5. Yoshi- 61421
Top 5 Biggest Vote Totals
1. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 115738
2. Auron vs. Tails- 108884
3. Cloud vs. CATS- 108254
4. Samus vs. Isaac- 107683
5. Link vs. Aiai- 101800
Top 5 Smallest Vote Totals
1. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 91464
2. Yoshi vs. Conker- 92418
3. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 94649
4. Squall vs. Jill- 95666
5. Sora vs. Aeris- 97810
Top 5 Easiest Matches to Pick (Based on Number of Correct Contest Entries)
1. Link vs. Aiai- 99.1%
2. Cloud vs. CATS- 94.9%
3. Samus vs. Isaac- 93.8%
4. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 87.9%
5. Bowser vs. Ness- 79.5%
Top 5 Hardest Matches to Pick
1. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 42.5%
2. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 47.7%
3. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 56.9%
4. Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud- 57.4 %
5. Auron vs. Tails- 60.7%
*phew* hope you enjoy this.
---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/14/2003 6:26:39 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/14/2003 6:30:52 PM | Message Detail |
I've
decided to include a bit of extra information with my writeups so that
they'll be a bit more complete. The rankings are taken for just the
matches completed so far.
Match #10 - Auron VS Tails - Review
Auron - 70199 / 64.47%
Tails - 38685 / 35.53%
Total - 108884 (2nd highest)
Prediction Percentage - 60.7% (5th hardest)
My Pick: Auron
Analysis Topic Pick: Auron
Most
picked this one pretty easily, after last year's defeat it was apparent
that Tails wouldn't be able to stand up to a lot, much less FFX's fan
favorite. Other than that, this match was pretty standard. Auron did
well, but he'll lose to Cloud next round unless he manages to pull of
some FF incest upset. Unfortunately, this match may not have given us
as much insight into the upcoming Yuna/Knuckles match as we may have
liked. Had Tails won, it would have been easy to say Knuckles would
take it, vice versa if Auron had killed Tails in a blowout. What we do
know though is that Knuckles > Tails, and Auron > Yuna. The match
will be much closer than this one, though I still think Yuna will edge
out the echidna for the win.
Match #11 - Bowser VS Ness - Review
Bowser - 74164 / 75.07%
Ness - 24627 / 24.93%
Total - 98791 (7th highest)
Prediction Percentage - 79.5% (6th hardest)
My Pick: Bowser
Analysis Topic Pick: Bowser
It
was pretty obvious to most that Bowser would win, although I don't
think many believed it would be by this much. The vocal and dedicated
Earthbound fans, while definitely not enough to give Bowser a
challenge, were most likely responsible for making many of us predict
that this match would be closer than it was. So if Ness was weaker than
we thought, than what about Bowser? Have we underestimated him? He may
just surprise us next round and defeat Yoshi.
More to come!
---
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 12-1 / 12 points won / 1 point lost | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/14/2003 9:54:34 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/14/2003 9:59:30 PM | Message Detail |
Ugh...
sorry for all the double posts, but I keep catching stuff just as I'm
posting... and now Gamefaqs insists on leaving that message after you
delete even if you're the last one to post.
Match #12 - Yoshi VS Conker - Review
Yoshi - 61421 / 66.46%
Conker - 30997 / 33.54%
Total - 92418 (11th highest)
Prediction Percentage - 77.2% (7th hardest)
My Pick: Yoshi
Analysis Topic Pick: Yoshi
It
feels like the results of Bowser/Ness and Yoshi/Conker should have been
switched. Many expected Yoshi to dominate over Conker as much as Bowser
did against Ness. So why did Yoshi surprise us with his results? Did we
overestimate him, or underestimate Conker? I still can't see Conker as
that strong a character. He hadn't had much exposure even before
Rare moved to the Xbox. It looks like Yoshi isn't as popular as many
originally predicted. Jjukil asked about Yoshi's popularity, and I can
say that I've never really found him that engaging. I've always looked
at him as Mario's dumb pet, and at first chose Bowser to overcome him
in the second round. After listening to many of the posters on the
board though, I changed my mind, as someone mentioned that Yoshi is
chosen far more often than Bowser in games like Mario Kart/Tennis/SSB.
I thought this was a good point, but now I'm not so sure. Looking at
Bowser and Yoshis' first round, I'd say Bowser has a much better chance
right now of advancing to the third. However, when two big names from
the same company meet, just about anything can happen.
Match #13 - Aeris VS Sora - Review
Aeris - 65196 / 66.66%
Sora - 32614 / 33.34%
Total - 97810 (9th highest)
Prediction Percentage - 70.7% (6th hardest)
My Pick: Aeris
Analysis Topic Pick: Aeris
Originally
I thought this match would be a bit more tricky, since both were Square
characters, but I guess a popular classic is always greater than a
popular, but still new character. Aeris did quite well, it looks like
she'll be able to make it to the third round easily. We'll have to wait
to see Sonic's performance though before we can go any farther.
Match #14 - Master Chief VS Felix - Current
Wow, and I thought all the people that thought Felix would win were crazy. I had no idea it would be so close.
Match #15 - Scorpion VS Zero - Preview
Most
agreed in the analysis topic that Zero will win this. In a move I'm
kind of regretting right now, I decided to go against my topic and
choose Scorpion. Zero fanatics (and there's a lot of them!) are calling
this match a blowout now, but I still refuse to believe it'll be
anything but close.
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 12-1 / 12 points won / 1 point lost | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/14/2003 11:29:25 PM | Message Detail |
Nice stats cyko!
I
just thought I'd cut and paste the list CJayC made a couple nights ago,
just incase it gets purged and somehow no one got around to saving it
in time. And I guess while I'm at it I'll post some of my thoughts.
Link 17571 - No big surprise. Link >>>> everyone else
Sephiroth 3265 - Second only to Link, as usual
Mario 2953 - Not quite the favorite again, but still pretty good
Cloud 2482
Snake 2378
Vercetti 2260 - I can't wait to see how he does
Samus 1688 - If Link wasn't in the contest, I'd give it to either her or Sephiroth
Master Chief 1488 - Yikes, and lot of people almost had their brackets ruined today
Crono 650 - Go Crono!
Mega Man 599
Sonic 480
Dante 384 - So I guess this is where the middle tier starts
KOS-MOS 367
Kefka 286
Magus 284 - Have fun against Link
Alucard 238
Zero 236 - Zero > Scorpion
Auron 215
Zelda 190
Squall 185
Lara 176
Aeris 160
Kirby 149 - Kirby > Ramza
CATS 138 - I love people that love CATS
Gordon 120
Shadow 118 - Shadow > Wario
Ness 117
Pac-Man 104
Sora 104
Sam 101
Tidus 97
Yuna 95 - Yuna > Knuckles
Ryu 93
Ramza 86
Isaac 82 - Isaac > Felix
Vyse 80
Luigi 79
Yoshi 75 - Yoshi > Bowser
Raziel 69
Kite 62
Scorpion 55
Ganondorf 52
Jill 51
Felix 50
Conker 49
Ryo 43
Duke Nukem 41
Pikachu 40
Knuckles 36
Wario 36
Tails 33
Bowser 31
Max 30
Donkey Kong 29
Resetti 29
Tom Nook 26
Fox 25
Ken 23
Raiden 21
Ratchet 18
AiAi 13
Crash 9
Bomberman 9 - Poor Bomberman, I love the little guy.
Olimar 7
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 12-1 / 12 points won / 1 point lost | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 7/14/2003 11:29:59 PM | Message Detail |
This may not be important for the future, but I am quite puzzled here...
Tidus beat Claire Redfield with only 55% last year.
This year Squall beat Jill Valentine with 60%.
I
coulda sworn that Tidus was more popular than Squall, AND Jill was more
popular than Claire. Is there a good explanation for these numbers?
Is
Tidus really not that popular? Squall getting 35% against Snake a
fluke? Claire has more TJF than Jill? Increased Final Fantasy fans?
Decrease in Resident Evil popularity?
The last question is probably the biggest and most likely reason, but still...
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/14/2003 11:43:34 PM | Message Detail |
Master Cheif vs Felix Review
Out
of all my picks in my brackets, this was one of the matches I wish I
could do over. I originally had MC winning this one, but I let some of
the pre-contest hype influence me, & at the last minute changed my
pick to Felix. But after seeing how close this match was, the risk
doesn't seem all the bad.
It's simply remarkable to see a
character from a handheld system holdout so strongly for an entire
match. This effort by Felix gave us our first close match of the
contest since Jill/Squall. As for Master Chief, he may have won the
battle, but after this performance, he most certainly won't win the
war. Because as popular as Felix seems to be, here on GameFAQs, Felix
is nothing compared to Aeris. And in my view, after all the hubbub
about 1440 people picking MC to take the contest, now it just means
that come August 8th, 1440 people will be ripping up their bracket at
the end of the day.
Zero vs Scorpion Preview
The most
hyped match of the East division. This matchup is all about proving
grounds & making statements. For Zero, it's about proving that the
sub-character from the Mega Man universe can stand on his own. We all
know of Mega Man's popularity, & Zero has been in every Mega Man X
game (in some way, shape, or form), so he has had an opportunity to
build a fanbase. Question is, 'Is it large enough to impact this
match?' For Scorpion, it's about proving that his run to the Elite 8
last year was no fluke. While he deserves props for beating Pac-Man,
Kazuya Mishisma & Max Payne aren't exactly opponents that make you
wet your pants. And Zero is just the character he needs to beat to
legitimize his run.
One thing to look for in this match, is if
either character wins with 60% of the vote or higher. If this happens,
this will put a little pressure on Sonic to perform well in his first
match. | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/15/2003 6:51:00 PM | Message Detail |
Okay,
so I announced a little "article" yesterday, but I lacked the time to
finish it. I'll do it as soon as I'm done with this post. I promise!
Match #15 Review
Usually
I'm either way off, or spot on. This time it's the latter. It only
proves the total lack of balance in last year's bracket (though this
year's arguably even worse in that department). Scorpion took the
Link-less half of the South, and just because of that, people hoped he
could dispatch Zero. WRONG! Zero, even though he's no Link, did way
better than Pac-Man, who definitely can't beat Kefka after what we saw
today.
Match #16 Preview
Last year Ken Masters
took on Samus in round 1, and this time it's Sonic. Of course the two
are closely tied... literally. This means that to have a chance to put
up a fight against Cloud, Sonic has to do at least as well as Samus did
last year against Ken (65-35). But we shouldn't think of Cloud just
yet, as Zero and Aeris are in the way...
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 13/14, 0 lost . . . . . Position unknown
Today's pick: Zero | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/15/2003 7:12:38 PM | Message Detail |
EASY AND HARD PATHS TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Okay, so that's a little bit of extra thoughts of mine (if you call that a little bit). I'm posting that here for four reasons:
1. All your elaborate analysis are belong to this topic (stats are analysis of that kind, if you wonder)
2. No one ever reads topics with such long first posts
3. This topic lacks discussion and commentary on the contest as a whole, as opposed to specific match-ups
4. This topic also lacks... flame wars. Great.
I'm
tired of people saying Link's path is too easy, complaining about how
AiAi and Fox aren't suitable competition. Come on, a 1st seed and
defending champion is not supposed to be challenged in rounds 1 and 2.
However, from there until the end, he will get some of the STIFFEST.
COMPETITION. EVAR. The only reason why he might have an easier way is
because he IS Link. That whole thing gave me the idea to do this.
Part 1: Among top-tier characters
Who will be considered top tier in this: Mario, Link, Samus, Megaman, Cloud, Sephiroth, Crono, Magus
(Don't
whine if your favorite is not in this (like Snake and Vercetti), I'm
trying to be as objective and realistic as possible.)
These
characters are not equally popular, as Link's presence in the group
attests. However, in everyone's best-case scenario, Link or the one who
beats him will be faced, so it cancels out. And Link is, well, Link.
Let's
see how these guys (and girl and robot) are spread through the
divisions. Cloud and Megaman are the only top-tier characters in their
respective divisions, therefore they will have to fight other top-tiers
twice in their best case scenarios, the most likely ones being:
Cloud: Link, Sephiroth (2)
Megaman: Sephiroth, Link (2)
NOTE:
This is what I think would be most likely. It could be Crono or Mario
instead of Sephiroth for all we know. This goes for the rest of this
analysis.
Now to untie them. Division finals: both meet
worthy competitors that are, however, very unlikely to beat them
(Sonic, Snake). Tie. Division semis: both meet characters that could
either come close, or totally bomb (Bowser/Yoshi, Vercetti). Tie.
Second round: both meet decent opponents, however they won't give much
of a fight (Auron, Zelda). First round: both get virtual byes (CATS,
Resetti). Tie.
There, you have it: Cloud and Megaman have the easiest way to the championship, in theory.
Now, there are two top-tier characters that are alone, but only in their half-divisions: Samus and Sephiroth. Let's do it again.
Samus: Link, Cloud, Sephiroth (3)
Sephiroth: Mario/Crono, Megaman, Link (3)
Both
fight relatively good opponents in round 3, but neither are a match for
them (Luigi, Alucard/Ramza). But Sephiroth fights two wimpolas (Raziel,
Max) while Samus faces two RPG characters (Isaac, KOS-MOS). Advantage
Sephiroth.
The rest of the top tier consists of two pairs of characters that are in the same half-division:
Link/Magus: each other, Samus, Cloud, Sephiroth (4)
Mario/Crono: each other, Sephiroth, Megaman, Link (4)
Now let's look at the first two opponents for each:
Link: AiAi, Fox
Magus: Sam Fisher, Ganondorf
Mario: Olimar, Wario/Shadow
Crono: Tom Nook, Kefka
Link
obviously has the easiest. Next is Mario, whose only threat in the
4-pack could be Shadow. Then there is Magus, who has two
slightly-above-average opponents. Finally there's Crono, who has the
toughest way, because despite Tom Nook being a pushover, a hard fight
(Kefka) is worth a million average fights.
So you have, in order, from easiest to hardest:
1. Cloud
1. Megaman
3. Sephiroth
4. Samus
5. Link
6. Mario
7. Magus
8. Crono
(CJayC seems to hate Chrono Trigger for some reason.)
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 13/14, 0 lost . . . . . Position unknown
Today's pick: Zero | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/15/2003 7:14:32 PM | Message Detail |
Part 2: Among all characters
Since
everyone that is not top tier has to face a top-tier character before
leaving the division, this leaves again Cloud and Megaman as those who
have the easiest way.
Some characters can face up to 5 top-tier
characters: AiAi, Pikachu, Fox, Tidus, Ganondorf, Sam Fisher, Olimar,
Wario, Shadow, Pac-Man, Kefka, Tom Nook.
Note that, obviously,
the other match will be against another member of the club. If you look
closely at that list, there is one character that stands out from the
rest: Kefka. So the one who faces Kefka, either in first or second
round, and 5 top-tier characters has, in theory, the hardest way. Since
you have two combinations with Kefka and the top tier in that 4-pack,
Crono, this leaves two characters: Pac-Man and Tom Nook. NOW we take
into consideration the popularity of both... and we all know Pac-Man
> Nook. So therefore, the character that has to go through hell more
than anyone else is... TOM NOOK! (Cloud and Megaman seem too close to
call, therefore I didn't un-tie them like I just did.)
Easiest: Cloud and Megaman
Hardest: Tom Nook
Pointless? Maybe. But like for all the stats, that's still good to know. :)
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 13/14, 0 lost . . . . . Position unknown
Today's pick: Zero | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/15/2003 8:07:42 PM | Message Detail |
Very nice Snowflake.
I
knew that when I chose Crono to meet Link in the finals, he would have
a tough time, I don't think I realized he had the toughest route of all
the top-tiers.
All the bigger the payoff if he does win though...
On
another topic, I wonder what's up with CJayC. He hasn't posted last
nights results yet. I'm also still hoping for better odds than the ones
he's kind of given us already. Maybe that's all there is to it though,
perhaps CJayC was embellishing when he mentioned he determined last
year's odds with a complicated weighted system.
In conclusion, I hate Scorpion and I hope Jjukil comes back soon.
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 13-1 / 13 points won / 1 point lost | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 7/15/2003 8:23:28 PM | Message Detail |
Some analysis on the North Division this year compared to the North Division last year:
With
nominations by everyone this year, all the weakest characters should be
weeded out, unlike last year. So theoretically, the battles should be
closer let's compare the victory percentages with this year compared to
last year:
Last year:
Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 74.61%
Mario vs. Servbot - 74.11%
Spyro the Dragon vs. Morrigan Aensland - 68.29%
Terry Bogard vs. Aya Brea - 64.77%
Duke Nukem vs. Iori Yagami - 62.72%
Donkey Kong vs. Bub - 61.96%
Pikachu vs. PaRappa the Rapper - 54.41%
Alucard vs. Miles "Tails" Prower - 54.32%
Ave: 64.40% victory
This year:
Link vs. AiAi - 91.35%
Samus Aran vs. Isaac - 75.34%
Luigi vs. Ratchet - 74.54%
Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud - 68.67%
Sam Fisher vs. Magus - 66.25%
KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot - 61.98%
Squall Leonhart vs. Jill Valentine - 59.99%
Tidus vs. Ganondorf - 50.68%
Ave: 68.60% victory
In
actuality, LAST year's matches were closer than this year's for the
North Division. Of course this year has easily the closest single
match, as well as the not-so-closest match.
Now, to compare the accuracy of people's predictions with this year versus last year:
Last year:
Mario vs. Servbot - 95.87%
Donkey Kong vs. Bub - 94.18%
Duke Nukem vs. Iori Yagami - 83.87%
Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 80.20%
Pikachu vs. PaRappa the Rapper - 64.82%
Terry Bogard vs. Aya Brea - 56.27%
Alucard vs. Miles "Tails" Prower - 51.41%
Spyro the Dragon vs. Morrigan Aensland - 42.28%
Ave: 71.11%
This year:
Link vs. AiAi - 99.12%
Samus Aran vs. Isaac - 93.79%
Luigi vs. Ratchet - 87.92%
Squall Leonhart vs. Jill Valentine - 62.08%
Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud - 57.41%
Sam Fisher vs. Magus - 56.92%
Tidus vs. Ganondorf - 47.72%
KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot - 42.45%
Ave: 68.40%
This
year has bigger blowouts AND it's "tougher" to predict. Isn't that
pretty ironic? Quite honestly, though, I'm doing much better this year
than last year, but I guess it's because I've actually been around this
message board a lot. Still, does it mean the contest entrants this year
are more, um, stupid?
Of course, once this whole round is done we'll have an even better idea about all this.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/15/2003 8:52:46 PM | Message Detail |
Two pretty predictable matches ahead of us.....
Sonic will beat Ken by a wide margin
Mario will nuke Captain Olimar
Which then leads us to Wario/Shadow, a novelty match if you will.Both are evil "clones" of their hero counterparts.
I believe Wario will take home the win because of his more exposure to the gaming world.
Meanwhile, if you missed out on Sonic Adventure 2, you will have NO clue who Shadow is.
Wario
has the 4 (yes, there are 4) Wario Land games and plus he jumps on the
Mushroom Kingdom bandwagon with Mario Kart and Mario Party. Wario also
has the recently released WarioWorld, and while it's not selling off
the shelves like hotcakes, it's not a bad game either. Thus, Wario at
LEAST gains some exposure from the game to help him out in getting to
Round 2 to face his "brother", the more popular red-hatted
plumber....Mario.
If Shadow is able to pull out a victory vs Wario, I will be shocked. Shadow has two things working for him:
a)Cool look.
b)Sonic Adventure 2 where he was one of the most liked characters of the group.
So here's to Wario moving on at least one match.
*raises glass*
---
MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti
(2)Sonic vs (15)Ken (14/15 pts.) | | From: DebonairBassman | Posted: 7/15/2003 9:52:25 PM | Message Detail |
*taps MMX's glass*
I completely agree with your analysis MMX, then again I never disagree with you...
Haste2,
I am very impressed with you analysis on the round differences, but you
have to also factor in the blowouts that took place during this years
tourney, and how closely knit last year was... but very well done
anyways.
But here's why I joined the discussion
Ramza vs. Kirby
This will be my demise either way, and many others at that.
KIRBY
A
legend in his own. Kirby has appeared in the Smash Brothers games, and
has had numerous adventures in dream land on the Gameboy system. He
also had a 64 sleeper hit with Kirby and the Crystal Shards, along with
his own pinball game. He has many fans hoping for the pink puff to
advance and move on... but one person is standing in his way.
RAMZA
One
game says it all, and one character can help change the way people
think about that game and even at their own lives. Ramza Beoulve was an
incredible character from an astonishingly well put together game with
an equally matched story. Many people have played this game, and a
great deal of those who have played it love it. Final Fantasy Tactics
still today has many people playing it over and some playing it anew.
He has a well rounded fan base, and is the perfect match for Kirby
BASSMAN's OPINION
I
believe this will be as close as the Felix Master Cheif match, if not
closer. I am completely undecided on who will win this, but all I can
do is wait 7 days until the match...
I honestly have no material to back either arguement on who could win, and I would like someone elses solid opinion.
---
Boondock Saints - WATCH THIS MOVIE
OgreBattle64 - PLAY THIS GAME | | From: GunMage | Posted: 7/15/2003 10:24:44 PM | Message Detail |
Wow, nicely done Slowflake and Haste2! I suddenly feel like I don't belong here...
Match 15 - Zero vs. Scorpion Review
Ouch.
I guess this proves Scorpion's run to the Elite Eight last year was
filled with cupcakes. Zero was definitely stiffer competition, and the
ninja couldn't even get a repeat run started. Of course, Zero didn't
blowout Scorpion, so that pretty much means Sonic will take him down.
Sonic
will roll over Ken, and Mario will stomp Olimar. The only intriguing
thing about these matches will be their victory margins. Any chance of
a Link or Cloud-like performance from either of these mascots? We shall
see...
This brings us to a match that caught my eye, Wario vs.
Shadow. For some odd reason, I think Shadow might just pull off the
upset. I'm not really convinced that Wario will have the same level of
support that Mario would have, but Shadow should pull in a decent share
of votes for his looks and for his role in SA2.
Wario does have
the name recognition and the recency effect on his side, so this will
be close. I am going out on a limb and saying 52-48 Shadow. Sorry for
disagreeing with you, MMXCalibur. You may be wrong, but for all I know,
you may be right. ^_^
---
Who says magic users can't use guns? Best of both worlds, I say.
(GCB Fanfiction: http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=8835220) | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 7/15/2003 10:25:20 PM | Message Detail |
...but you have to also factor in the blowouts that took place during this years tourney, and how closely knit last year was...
Sorry, but what exactly do you mean? =P (Yes, I know I'm not perfect, or even close to it with this)
Oh
wait, at first I thought you meant the the blowouts of this tourney
being connected with the knitting between this year's and last year's
tournament. o_O Yeah, I'm definitely aware of that. But I think doing
the next 3 divisions will fix most of it...
Ramza vs. Kirby is
my big worry...well, and also Yuna vs. Knuckles. I've been convinced by
the results of Tails vs. Auron and this topic that Yuna will have the
match. -_- I should've realized that it takes a couple years for a
Final Fantasy game to reach its full popularity.
And I have
Kirby beating Ramza, as well. I think I've picked too many FF
characters too lose already. I honestly think Ramza's performance will
depend highly on the picture CJayC uses. If he uses a bad one, Kirby
should easily have the match. With a great one, he has an excellent
shot, but he still doesn't have the looks of Crono, Isaac, or Felix.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: Old Master Q | Posted: 7/15/2003 10:44:42 PM | Message Detail |
I like your analysis Slowflake. I know it's been said a couple times but I guess I'll state it again =T
Last
year, Link had the easiest road. Hands down. He received no competition
in his respective division - his only "real" challenges were Sephiroth
and Mario. Everyone else (Mario, Sephiroth, Cloud, Crono, Snake,
Megaman, Samus) would have had to beat at least 3 "top-tier" characters
if they won. Link only faced two, and he made quick work of them.
Now
it may just be a hunch of mine, but I think the character with the
easiest road will most likely be the winner of the whole thing. Don't
ask me why, I can't explain without resorting to some lame excuse
*coughantivotescoughvotestuffing* ... anyways, I have a very good
feeling about Cloud. There isn't as much hype on him as there was last
year. Already this year he's got the highest votal total, beating out
Link's impressive score. Now, whether or not it's because Link's match
was the very first match, or if it's because Cloud really IS that much
'greater', is questionable. HOWEVER, looking at the scores from last
year.... Cloud has been consistently very, very, good. As someone said
before, his matches against Fox and Pikachu last year held the highest
number of votes in their respective rounds, and Cloud vs. Mario had the
most votes in the whole darn contest. Granted, Link was also very
impressive with his scores. However, Link's competition was
considerably weaker (Little Mac, anyone...?)
Now, you may argue
that Link DID beat out Sephiroth and Mario. I hypothesize that this is
due to the fallout of Planet Nintendo's influence. In other words....
had outside sources not interfered, Cloud would have beaten Mario and
things would have been very different. Link STILL may have won......
but I doubt it =T
Call me crazy but I think that EVEN WITH the
same outside interference this year, Cloud can beat the elf. Why?
Apparently, Mario was the one whom they (the Nintendo sites) all
rallied for last year -- which also makes me believe that Mario is a
special case in that whenever he's against a Square character he WILL
win regardless. Anyway, the contest started picking up near the end of
round 3 and the beginning of round 4 (swt 16 and elite 8). The first
match of the elite 8 will probably be Link vs. Cloud. At this time,
there shouldn't be any real influence from outside sources, because a)
Link is NOT Mario and b) Cloud is Square, and Square sites remain
neutral =P. And given both characters' performance last year and this
year, I believe Cloud can win his match against Link.
Of
course, I can be gravely mistaken. This year =/= last year... more
brackets means bracket-voters matter more... round 3 matches might
start the hype early, in which case Cloud is doomed....
Regardless, I will look forward to that match. And once again I like your analysis Slowlfake! :D
---
fhqwhgadshgnsdhjsdbkhsdabkfabkveybf
Sum2k3 score - 13/14 Next pick: Zero | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/16/2003 12:44:43 AM | Message Detail |
Oh, I can't do my match review without the stats, so I'll try and do something equally useful.
FULL CONTEST PREDICTIONS BASED ON CJAYC'S "ODDS"!
Although
they're not the real odds, right now they're all we've got, so perhaps
they may be able to give us some help on some of the tougher upcoming
matches.
Round One
Link > Aiai
Pikachu > Fox
Tidus > Ganondorf
Sam < Magus
Squall > Jill
Luigi > Ratchet
KOS-MOS > Crash
Samus > Isaac
Cloud > CATS
Auron > Tails
Bowser < Ness
Yoshi > Conker
Sora < Aeris
Master Chief > Felix
Zero > Scorpion
Sonic > Ken
Mario > Olimar
Wario < Shadow
Pac Man < Kefka
Crono > Tom Nook
Alucard > Bomberman
Kirby > Ramza
Gordon > Max
Sephiroth > Raziel
Snake > Raiden
Knuckles < Yuna
Ryu > Duke
Dante > Ryo
Donkey Kong < Vyse
Vercetti > Kite
Lara < Zelda
Mega Man > Resetti
Round Two
Link > Pikachu
Tidus < Magus
Lugi < Squall
Samus > KOS-MOS
Cloud > Auron
Yoshi < Ness
Master Chief > Aeris
Sonic > Zerio
Mario > Shadow
Crono > Kefka
Kirby < Alucard
Sephiroth > Gordon
Snake > Yuna
Dante > Ryu
Vercetti > Vyse
Mega Man > Zelda
Round Three
Link > Magus
Samus > Squall
Cloud > Ness
Sonic < Master Chief
Mario > Crono
Sephiroth > Alucard
Snake > Dante
Mega Man < Vercetti
Round Four
Link > Samus
Cloud > Master Chief
Mario < Sephiroth
Snake > Vercetti
Round Five
Link > Cloud
Sephiroth > Snake
Final
Link > Sephiroth
Phew!
Well that's how it would go according to the "odds." It's actually a
pretty decent bracket, although not surprisingly many characters with
more hard-core fans (RPG characters, MC) have an unrealistic boost.
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 13-2 / 13 points won / 2 point lost | | From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/16/2003 4:13:17 AM | Message Detail |
*comes out of his virtual hidey-hole*
Like
I said up on the site, sorry for closing down, guys. It was a tough
decision, but I think it was for the best--the place was becoming a
shadow of its former self. Besides, you can get most of the
contest-related stuff I was posting right here--I think the previews
are basically all that's missing.
From here on, I'll basically be going through what I missed and writing down random thoughts:
-Bowser vs. Ness:
Wow, Bowser looks a lot more impressive than I thought he would--close
to Samus, even. Some people have said it was because Ness was also from
Nintendo, but so was Isaac, and I really don't think Ness is weaker
than Isaac. Not after his appearances in Melee, and not after another
SNES holdover made the Final Four last year. Hopefully this means
Cloud's Round 3 fight will at least be interesting.
-Ultimaterializer
mentioned Knuckles has all of Sonic's fanbase. Thanks to the Sonic
Adventure games, I really don't think that's true. And Ganondorf
beating Tidus actually makes me thing Yuna's got a better shot
against Knuckles, because the score was so close and Tidus has so many
anti-fans. (BTW, I'm one of the ones that didn't have a Genesis
alongside my SNES. ;)
-Yoshi vs. Conker: Yoshi was
definitely less impressive than Bowser, but I'm not sure what it means.
If their opponents had been reversed, their totals could have also been
reversed, as far as I'm concerned. I'm just glad that Conker put up a
fight, and that the results didn't make it 100% clear that Yoshi would
beat Bowser. Might cost me in my bracket, but it'd be nice to see
Bowser pull off the upset. (Be even nicer if he upset Cloud to boot. =D
)
-Poll Stats: discontinued. I am still collecting them,
but thus far there's been no response--and, more importantly, I'm still
not even sure what to report. And I'll probably be killed if I do
another reformat at this point. ;) If I get the time, I'll put up
another chart or two later on that I make myself, which should make it
much easier to get in the info I want.
-NT220 on Yoshi:
Your explanation is sound, but it's still basically giving all the
credit to the games, which I was already doing. I'll definitely agree
that Yoshi stars in the bigger series, but what I'm really wondering is
if Mario is the ONLY thing responsible for his fanbase being bigger
than Kirby's.
-Obviously, last year has taught the casual contestant very little. I'll have more on this later, maybe even an article.
-Sora vs. Aeris:
Very, very little to say about this match. Aeris was more impressive
than I expected, but only by a little. I still don't see her beating
Sonic, even if Sonic's currently losing 30% of the vote to Ken (as I
predicted he would... ;)
-MC vs. Felix: Certainly closer
than I expected. We almost saw a comeback, even. Even with a win, MC
probably disappointed many, since he's clearly going out in the second
round. I wonder how many voted for MC solely because of their brackets;
with a 3000 vote difference, they could easily have saved him in this
round. (I also wonder if Felix had more votes for him or against the X-Box.)
-Slowflake exposing how many websites I've failed: Wow, I'm surprised anyone remembered that comment. I couldn't even remember where I said it for a while. =P
-Crash
and Bomberman's odds say a lot about how many people care about their
characters. Not only do they get snubbed by the people picking to
win--and the people picking their favorites--but the people picking to
lose won't even give them the nod.... | | From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/16/2003 4:17:27 AM | Message Detail |
-Zero vs. Scorpion:
This WOULD have been this year's Crono vs. Dante...if it had happened
in Round 2. Dante looked bad enough for people to know he'd lose
already; this year we didn't know what to think until the poll opened.
But Zero certainly impressed once they did, didn't he? I'd like to see
him upset Sonic...but again, I just can't, even if Sonic IS losing 30%
of the vote to Ken. (Wait, didn't I say that already? Hmm...maybe I'm
missing something here....)
-Yesmar: I agree that Kefka
doesn't look as cool as Scorpion, but he and Crono come from much the
same era, and the Final Fantasy fanbase is out in full force this year.
(Ugh, alliteration....) Besides, I have a feeling Kefka could be a
bigger threat than any of us bargained for. ...but that's another
discussion altogether.
-Nice lists, cyko. =) Kind of creepy how Tidus pulled in almost as many votes as Squall....
-Slowflake's article:
Heh. I've always thought of Kefka as having the hardest path to the
championship...but when you take into account the characters that have
no chance of winning, Tom Nook clearly has it worse. =P You're also
right about Link having a harder fight than people say he does. Two
small rebuttals, though: Sonic tied Samus last year and probably hasn't
lost much steam, so Cloud probably has it rougher than Mega Man.
Meanwhile, Magus still hasn't proven himself as a top-tier player. How much he beats Ganondorf by will tell us more.
-Haste2's stats:
That's a good point about the prediction percentages. I guess it comes
with the territory, though--we got in three times as many brackets, but
only a few more topics before the contest started. (Then again, I'm
doing worse this year than I was this time last year...*mutters
something about Jill*)
-Wario vs. Shadow: It could be
close, but so could a lot of the matches so far that have actually
ended up 60/40. You guys have convinced me Wario will take this, and
I've got him on my bracket...so, naturally, I'll be here to poke you
with sharp sticks when he loses. ;P
that's it. Be back here later.... | | From: cyko | Posted: 7/16/2003 6:47:24 AM | Message Detail |
thank you to Samberdog, Slowflake, Jjukil, and anyone else who noticed these lists! ^_^
Top 5 Vote getters
1. Cloud Strife- 94086
2. Link- 92998
3. Samus Aran- 81123
4. Bowser- 74164
5. Luigi- 70550
Top 5 Most Pathetic Characters (Least Votes)
1. Aiai- 8802
2. CATS- 14168
3. Ratchet- 24099
4. Ness- 24627
5. Isaac- 26560
Top 5 Blowouts (Biggest Vote Difference)
1. Link over Aiai- 84196
2. Cloud over Cats- 79918
3. Samus over Isaac- 54563
4. Bowser over Ness- 49537
5. Luigi over Ratchet- 46451
Top 5 Closest Matches
1. Ganondorf over Tidus- 1582
2. Master Chief over Felix- 6318
3. Squall over Jill Valentine- 19118
4. Kos-Mos over Crash Bandicoot- 23631
5. Zero over Scorpion- 28969
Top 5 Most Impressive Losers
1. Tidus- 57078
2. Felix- 50231
3. Scorpion- 41916
4. Tails- 38685
5. Jill Valentine- 38274
Top 5 Least Impressive Winners
1. Master Chief- 56549
2. Squall- 57392
3. Ganondorf- 58660
4. Magus- 60598
5. KOS-MOS- 61141
Top 5 Biggest Vote Totals
1. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 115738
2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 112801
3. Auron vs. Tails- 108884
4. Cloud vs. CATS- 108254
5. Samus vs. Isaac- 107683
Top 5 Smallest Vote Totals
1. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 91464
2. Yoshi vs. Conker- 92418
3. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 94649
4. Squall vs. Jill- 95666
5. Sora vs. Aeris- 97810
Top 5 Easiest Matches to Pick (Based on Number of Correct Contest Entries)
1. Link vs. Aiai- 99.1%
2. Cloud vs. CATS- 94.9%
3. Samus vs. Isaac- 93.8%
4. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 87.9%
5. Bowser vs. Ness- 79.5%
Top 5 Hardest Matches to Pick
1. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 42.5%
2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 47.3%
3. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 47.7%
4. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 56.9%
5. Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud- 57.4 %
interesting notes:
- if Felix could have pulled out the upset, only 26.9% would have predicted the match correctly.
-
out of the 2091 people who predicted CATS would beat Cloud, 138 or 6.6%
predicted he would win the entire tournament. only Link and possibly
Sephiroth beat that percentage.
- Tidus got more votes in his losing effort than Master Chief did in his victory.
if i have time later, i'll post some more match analysis.
---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti | | From: DebonairBassman | Posted: 7/16/2003 12:45:11 PM | Message Detail |
I apologize Haste... I didn't state that well enough.
But then, you did answer the question yourself, that the following rounds will make up for it.
sorry... I would elaborate more on the other things but I have football practice to go to... see ya
---
Boondock Saints - WATCH THIS MOVIE
OgreBattle64 - PLAY THIS GAME | | From: Haste2 | Posted: 7/16/2003 2:33:05 PM | Message Detail |
Ken
getting 30% against Sonic means nothing about how "bad" he'll do. Ken
got 35% against Samus last year, and look how well SHE did. I'm
guessing that Sonic is doing better than Samus because the fanbases are
conflicting more in this match than Samus vs. Ken, and therefore it
swings the percentage an even greater amount towards the more popular
character, kind of like Link vs. Mario, but not as extreme.
Bassman, what are you apologizing for? =P
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." | | From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/16/2003 3:16:55 PM | Message Detail |
Hi
again. Still too busy to do much aside from update the website, but I'm
getting there. I would like to give a quick shoutout to TRE, cyko,
Haste2, Sir Bormun, BahamutZERO, Who Cares?, Slowflake, Samberdog, and
everyone else for the cool stat-work and insightful analysis. I've
tried to read as much as I can, but I'm still way behind.
It's
nice to see cyko doing the top 5 lists. I wasn't sure when I was going
to start those this year, and I must admit that I'm nowhere near as
prepared as I should be to do them. Fortunately I've still got last
year's templates, so that should save me a bit of time... when I
finally get around to it. :)
Many of you have noticed the new
poll on the stats site. I'm going to try to change it on a regular
basis. I've already got the next 3 lined up, and I'll be taking
suggestions again like last year. Also, it seems that Bravenet no
longer allows you to view the poll archive. That's a pain. I'll have to
find some way around that.
Some quick thoughts:
Looks
like the board was right: Zero beat Scorpion pretty easily. I was still
worried about picking Zero right up until I saw the poll. So, we lose
the first of last year's elite eight. Oh well, Scorpion didn't deserve
that position anyway. ;)
And Master Chief vs. Felix was much
closer than I'd expected. This is the match that my opinion changed the
most on since the brackets were finalized. Originally I never gave a
thought to Felix winning this, but as the battle approached I became
less and less confident about the outcome. A nicely balanced first
round battle which made the seeding look silly. What's Master Chief
doing at #3 again? Methinks Aeris would have been more deserving of
that spot.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com | | From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 7/16/2003 3:20:47 PM | Message Detail |
someone
mentioned that Yoshi is chosen far more often than Bowser in games like
Mario Kart/Tennis/SSB. I thought this was a good point, but now I'm not
so sure. -- Samberdog
That would be me, and by way of your
topic my dumb pick has probably infected dozens of entries. But rather
than get a head start on the lynch mob, let me remind you the match
hasn't actually happened yet...
With Conker recieving somewhere
in the neighborhood of half as many votes as his game sold copies, it's
obvious Yoshi attracted a lot of anti-votes (as the cute invariably
do). Conversely in his match, Bowser was the one to benefit from the
"anti-cute boost."
Ness looks like he flopped BAD, but frankly i
bet Earthbound fans were the only ones voting for him, what with his
opponent being a cooler-looking, more famous fellow Nintendo character
(with more personality!). 24000 fans ain't bad.
So is Bowser as
strong as he looks? The answer is a definite maybe. There's no question
he'll be the one to take the "appearance votes," but we can see from
last year that starting in round 2, that doesn't mean much. The
majority of the Nintendo support will probably go for the more famous
Yoshi, but if Bowser can get the majority of everything else, he'll win
for sure.
I still suspect Yoshi can win, and here's how.
Nintendo fans vote Yoshi as noted above, and those who aren't fans of
the Super Mario Bros. series snore with apathy at the poll. We've seen
pro-Yoshi posts, but have we seen Yoshi-haters? Or anything at all relating to Bowser? I haven't. Bowser inspires bupkus. Yoshi skates to a slim victory in a low vote-count poll.
---
"You think you're right, but you know you're wrong." -- My friend, master debater | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/16/2003 4:48:32 PM | Message Detail |
Three
words StopPokingMe... Super Mario RPG. That's the reason why those who
normally wouldn't care would vote Bowser. But still, although Bowser is
the better man (turtle?) to fight Cloud, Nintendo will throw Yoshi at
said Cloud, because, as you pointed out, Nintendo fans prefer Yoshi.
On the subject of Jjukil's rebuttals, now...
1. Sonic is a tough opponent, granted, but so is Snake for Megaman. I easily see both matches having similar percentages.
2.
I think Magus' performance against Fisher was quite good actually. The
results were eerily similar to Crono vs. Dante, and considering Fisher
on par with Dante is not too far-fetched. The multi-platform Splinter
Cell was a big hit, and from the information I gathered you have to
know about Fisher if you played the game, so no Freeman syndrome here.
Now, on to the usual review/preview.
Match #16 Review
Well,
there's some more oil on the fire, as Sonic's very good performance
here surpasses Samus' last year. This won't help appeasing the
controversy over Sonic vs. Samus. On the subject of the match itself,
there's not much to say. However, Sonic's strong showing, once again
compared to Samus', shows he can be a challenge for Cloud. But will he
be strong enough to do performances just as convincing against Zero and
Aeris? We'll see that when we get there.
Match #17 Preview
There's
no doubt on the outcome of this match, but much more on the margin of
victory. We saw two Marios last year: the one who did miserably against
Servbot and Morrigan, and the one who crushed DK and squeezed his way
to the finals. Which one will we be treated to this year? Hard to tell.
Olimar is a joke character, like Servbot, but he's also a fellow
Nintendo character, like DK. Will the haters and jokers counter the
block that is the Nintendo fanbase?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 14/15, 0 lost . . . . . T-273 (1434-way)
Today's pick: Sonic | | From: creativename | Posted: 7/16/2003 6:02:19 PM | Message Detail |
Slowflake, some comments on your "road to victory" post:
1)
You didn't put Sonic in you group of "top-tiers". This is a mistake.
Especially considering you put Magus in the group; I'd say Sonic
remains ahead of Magus even if Magus lives up to expectations (which I
think he will).
2) I think that an
Auron--Bowser--Sonic--Link--Sephiroth road is much tougher than a
Zelda--Vercetti--Snake--Sephiroth--Link road. Cloud has to face Sonic,
which I think is in essence a complete toss-up (I would actually give
Sonic a slight edge). Also, Bowser could give Cloud more problems than
people expect.
Thus, I'd say Mega Man has the easiest road to
victory, and by a good bit at that. One could play the Vercetti
unpredictability card in order to make Mega Man's bracket seem more
difficult, but I find that highly dubious; it still wouldn't be enough
to make his bracket tougher than Cloud's anyway.
...Ah, I just noticed Jjukil's post and your reply.
Sonic is a tough opponent, granted, but so is Snake for Megaman. I easily see both matches having similar percentages.
I must vehemently
disagree. Snake isn't even close to being in Sonic's league. Mega Man
will defeat Snake, no problem. Again, I reiterate that Sonic/Cloud is
tough to call--and I'd give Sonic a slight edge (though I'll be pulling
for Cloud). | | From: creativename | Posted: 7/16/2003 6:15:07 PM | Message Detail |
| Oh,
and as for Sonic himself, I'd say his bracket path is roughly
comparable to Cloud's (Cloud--Link--Sephiroth, or people of equivalent
difficulty). Mega Man's path is still much easier than Sonic's, simply
because he doesn't face any real competition until, incredibly, Round 5. | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/16/2003 6:32:43 PM | Message Detail |
There
is something to counter the Vercetti unpredictability card: Bowser vs.
Yoshi. A match where the best could lose. I'll refer you to the very
first paragraph of my previous post, as well as StopPokingMe's.
Now
for Snake vs. Sonic. I will bring something to your attention,
something that was forgotten last year because of the previous match:
Crono vs. Snake was actually very close.
Now,
while I agree that Sonic is quite the borderline case, I would say that
so does Snake, for almost beating a character from that select club
(and Sonic failed by very little too, back when Samus was borderline as
well).
Cloud vs. Sonic? It's all a matter of opinion. I have
Cloud winning, and I'm sure he will, but I'll be rooting for Sonic.
Until then, I can only use solid facts for analysis purposes.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 14/15, 0 lost . . . . . T-273 (1434-way)
Today's pick: Sonic | | From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/17/2003 3:07:50 PM | Message Detail |
Some stats...
Okay,
last year I made an attempt to take every stat I collected and post it
in my stats threads. The reasoning for this was that I didn't ever want
anyone to be required to visit my crappy Tripod site in order
to see the stats. :) This year I've fallen behind, because I've been
busy and it's much easier to just update the website. So, in order to
catch up, I now present the results of the first two divisions in the
traditional format (Top 5/10 lists from me are still quite a few days
off, so look to cyko for those in the meantime). Much of this will
obviously duplicate stuff that's already been posted, but here we go:
KEY: seed# - Character - votes / percent (total votes) - number / percentage of contest entrants predicting this character to win the match
NORTH DIVISION
1 - Link - 92998 / 91.35% (101800) - 40697 / 99.1%
16 - AiAi - 8802 / 8.65% (101800) - 363 / 0.9%
8 - Pikachu - 30962 / 31.33% (98818) - 17487 / 42.6%
9 - Fox McCloud - 67856 / 68.67% (98818) - 23573 / 57.4%
5 - Tidus - 57078 / 49.32% (115738) - 21465 / 52.3%
12 - Ganondorf - 58660 / 50.68% (115738) - 19595 / 47.7%
4 - Sam Fisher - 30866 / 33.75% (91464) - 17690 / 43.1%
13 - Magus - 60598 / 66.25% (91464) - 23370 / 56.9%
6 - Squall Leonhart - 57392 / 59.99% (95666) - 25492 / 62.1%
11 - Jill Valentine - 38274 / 40.01% (95666) - 15568 / 37.9%
3 - Luigi - 70550 / 74.54% (94649) - 36099 / 87.9%
14 - Ratchet - 24099 / 25.46% (94649) - 4961 / 12.1%
7 - KOS-MOS - 61141 / 61.98% (98651) - 17431 / 42.5%
10 - Crash Bandicoot - 37510 / 38.02% (98651) - 23629 / 57.5%
2 - Samus Aran - 81123 / 75.34% (107683) - 38512 / 93.8%
15 - Isaac - 26560 / 24.66% (107683) - 2548 / 6.2%
EAST DIVISION
1 - Cloud Strife - 94086 / 86.91% (108254) - 38968 / 94.9%
16 - CATS - 14168 / 13.09% (108254) - 2092 / 5.1%
8 - Auron - 70199 / 64.47% (108884) - 24921 / 60.7%
9 - Miles "Tails" Prower - 38685 / 35.53% (108884) - 16139 / 39.3%
5 - Bowser - 74164 / 75.07% (98791) - 32629 / 79.5%
12 - Ness - 24627 / 24.93% (98791) - 8431 / 20.5%
4 - Yoshi - 61421 / 66.46% (92418) - 31710 / 77.2%
13 - Conker - 30997 / 33.54% (92418) - 9350 / 22.8%
6 - Sora - 32614 / 33.34% (97810) - 12038 / 29.3%
11 - Aeris Gainsborough - 65196 / 66.66% (97810) - 29021 / 70.7%
3 - Master Chief - 56549 / 52.96% (106780) - 30026 / 73.1%
14 - Felix - 50231 / 47.04% (106780) - 11033 / 26.9%
7 - Zero - 70885 / 62.84% (112801) - 19414 / 47.3%
10 - Scorpion - 41916 / 37.16% (112801) - 21645 / 52.7%
2 - Sonic the Hedgehog - 73484 / 68.91% (106630) - 34656 / 84.4%
15 - Ken - 33146 / 31.09% (106630) - 6403 / 15.6%
Feedback
is welcome, as always. I hope to resume a nightly update in last year's
fashion, although it will more likely be a "daily" update until at
least August.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com | | From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/17/2003 4:46:18 PM | Message Detail |
Bonus stat:
Thought
it might be fun to compare how well the perfects predict each match
compared to everyone else. Unfortunately, not many of these numbers are
available. But we can at least look at a few. The first number is the
overall percentage, the second is the perfects' percentage.
Yoshi over Conker - 77.2% - 77.8%
Aeris over Sora - 70.7% - 81.0%
Master Chief over Felix and Zero over Scorpion - 60.2% - 45.3%
Sonic over Ken - 84.4% - 85.7%
It still amazes me that that many people can get the first 15 correct and then pick Ken...
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/17/2003 4:51:30 PM | Message Detail |
What's so crappy about your site Solar? I think's it's great...
Match #17 Review
Wow.
Just... wow. I never though Mario could pull off a victory of that kind
of magnitude. And it looks like Olimar won't even be able to reach
Servbot's vote count... with about twice as many voters. The main
question is... how come Mario did so horrible against Servbot, but is
thrashing a 1-inch tall astronaut like he was nothing? More support?
Haters forming a lesser fraction of the vote due to being diluted by
new voters? Less joke voters due to the match being #17 instead of #1?
No matter what it is, Mario's situation seems much more comfortable
than before the contest started. Very few thought Mario could make it
to the finals, but with the kind of strength he's displayed today, he
could now be seen beating Crono, Sephiroth and Megaman to earn a place
in the championship match. But let's see what these three can do...
they could gain back the psychological advantage with great
performances.
Match #18 Preview
If you've taken
note of my picks, you'll notice I'm on a huge winning streak - 12 in a
row, to be exact. This might end tomorrow. Everyone's saying they'll
vote for Shadow (except me, god I hate him), but think Wario will take
it. But I have yet to see Wario support, except for myself. Could this
be a sign of a Shadow victory? Not this much. CATS and Kirby are huge
board favorites, yet one lost, and the other's fate is unsure. And,
Wario has his own games, and they're remembered, it seems. So while
this match seems very close, I'll say Wario, simply out of exposure.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 15/16, 0 lost . . . . . T-234 (1249-way)
Today's pick: Mario | | From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/17/2003 5:04:51 PM | Message Detail |
What's so crappy about your site Solar? I think's it's great...
Heh, thanks. Here's what I think's crappy about it:
1)
All those damn ads. The number of times I've been the 10 millionth
visitor to my own site is silly, especially since the counter only
reads 2600...
2) That color scheme. Ouch. ;)
3) The lack of any style (just compare it to Jjukil's site).
But,
it gets the job done. I've often considered a new format or adding some
graphics, but I don't want to lose any functionality (plus Tripod isn't
big on giving out bandwidth). Okay, so it's not really crappy, but don't be surprised if I try to jazz it up somehow. :)
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com | | From: EvilNcr | Posted: 7/17/2003 5:15:49 PM | Message Detail |
wooo
there. Calm down. This does not mean Mario's position is more
comfortable one bit. I mean.. for one.. Olimar is another Nintendo
character and captain olimar looks like a ****.
Even haters don't vote THAT ...thing over Mario.
---
The Reaper is always a step behind you ncr... | | From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/17/2003 5:23:45 PM | Message Detail |
Then
why would they vote for a Legoman TWO TIMES more than Olimar? Neither
is that well-known, you know, and if I had to decide between the two,
it would probably be Olimar.
...Okay, so I would vote LegoKefka over 95% of the characters in this contest. Happy?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 15/16, 0 lost . . . . . T-234 (1249-way)
Today's pick: Mario | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/17/2003 9:43:44 PM | Message Detail |
I'm back! Gah... I always fall so far behind.
StopPokingMe
- yah, I remember now that it was you that said it. It's no big deal
though, everyone said Yoshi would win for sure but you were the only
one that had an actual reason. We'll just have to wait and see how
things turn out.
I think both Cloud and Mega Man's path out of
their respective divisions are equally easy. Sure Auron, Bowser, Sonic,
Zelda, Vercetti, and Snake are all decent characters, but none of them
(not even Sonic or Snake) should be able to give any of the top tier
characters trouble (except Magus, who I don't agree should be there).
It was pretty apparent from the start that those two would have their
own divisions locked tight from the get go.
Jjukil, I liked you poll stats. The time they started and ended was cool, but the differential was really interesting. Just wanted to let you know...
Solar,
just thought I should say "good work" again. Because that's what you're
doing. I think your site rocks, it wouldn't worry too much about its
looks, as functionality should come first. The only thing I might
suggest is a different colour scheme, but even that might be hard to
do, as the different rounds need to be easily distinguished from each
other.
Anyway, back to my match analysis:
Match #14 - Master Chief VS Felix - Review
Master Chief - 56549 / 52.96%
Felix - 50231 / 47.04%
Total - 106780 (5th highest)
Prediction Percantage - 73.1% (8th hardest)
My Pick: Master Chief
Analysis Topic Pick: Master Chief
"Odds" Pick: Master Chief
Brackets Ruined: 50
This
was an interesting match. As you've heard, it had been assumed that MC
would win this match easily, but by late June many people were
predicting Felix would pull an upset. Well he didn't, but not for lack
of trying. It's quite spectacular that the hero of a little handheld
RPG came so close though, and I think that had it been Felix's Golden
Sun buddy Isaac in his place instead, MC would have lost. It looks like
MC and the Xbox can't get a break on Gamefaqs, because there's no way
in hell he's beating Aeris next round. Despite MC winning in the end,
this just reinforces that RPG's >>> Action games here at
Gamefaqs, just something to keep in mind.
I would like to
continue more of my analysis, but right now I have to go watch Amazing
Race. In case I don't make it back in time though, I just want to throw
my hat in for Wario next match, it might be close, but I'm still
confident he can do it.
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 14-2 / 14 points won / 2 point lost | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/17/2003 9:48:20 PM | Message Detail |
Oh dear... I just saw the pic CJayC is using for Wario.
It's all over. *cries*
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 14-2 / 14 points won / 2 point lost | | From: cyko | Posted: 7/17/2003 10:42:35 PM | Message Detail |
(Top 5/10 lists from me are still quite a few days off, so look to cyko for those in the meantime).
i'm happy i could help you out, solarshadow. ^_^
i'll
update the lists in the morning after the final Mario results are
posted. and great work on your site; it's coming along quite well.
anywho, more of my input:
cyko's Match 14 Review
Master Chief vs. Felix
okay,
it's beating a dead horse by this point, but it was more Master Chief
vs. anti-x-Box than Master Chief vs. Felix. but Master Chief still
pulled out a narrow victory, saving many brackets from being destroyed
early. not that it mattered much, though, because there is no way that
he can overcome both the Final Fantasy fanboys and the anti-x-box
faction. there are still Halo fans out there, but as someone said
earlier, "those 1483 people who had Master Chief winning the whole
thing are 1483 people who won't win this contest."
cyko's Match 15 Review
Zero vs. Scorpion
Zero
made an impressive debut against a relatively decent character. he had
two main things going for him. being related to Megaman is huge,
because Megaman has a huge following here. second, there are two main
types of manga style anime- your ninjas and samurai fighting demons
(which is represented by Crono and Magus), and your futuristic mechs
and robots (which is represented by Zero and Megaman). pictures aren't
everything, but it still helped him out.
cyko's Match 16 Review
Sonic vs. Ken
this
one wasn't much of a surprise to most people. however, Sonic didn't
quite get the level of blowout that the other one and two seeds have.
granted, Ken is a much tougher opponent than Aiai or Mr. Resetti, but
Sonic has got a tough couple of matches ahead of him against Zero and
Aeris.
Zero only pulled about 2600 fewer votes against an arguably
much tougher opponent. the Zero vs. Sonic match will be a lot closer
than most people think, but Sonic (who could be the only Sega character
left by that point) should be able to pull it out. but it will not be
easy for the hedgehog.
---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti | | From: cyko | Posted: 7/17/2003 10:44:22 PM | Message Detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] | | From: cyko | Posted: 7/17/2003 10:59:28 PM | Message Detail |
cyko's Match 17 Review
Mario vs. Captain Olimar
well,
it looks like the old plumber has still got it. he has already beaten
Samus's vote total and still has time to be the third person to break
90000 votes. of course this isn't really much of a match anyways. at
least this match proves that Crono vs. Mario will be just as
interesting as it was last year, as long as Crono beats out Tom Nook by
a similar margin.
cyko's Match 18 Preview
Wario vs. Shadow
ah,
finally, another close match. for a while, most people thought Wario
had this one in the bag. then we got to see the match picture. >_<
that Wario is one goofy looking mofo. but Wario still has the Nintendo
support behind him, along with a fairly successful line of WarioWorld
games. and don't forget about WarioWare Inc. for gba. that weirdly
addictive game has quite a cult following and should help Wario out a
little too. Shadow definitely has the better look, but he only has one
mediocre game under his belt. and Nintendo fans usually show more
support than Sega fans. it will be a close match, and i won't be
surprised if Shadow pulls out, but Wario should be able to slip by.
prediction: Wario at 53%-57%
---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti | | From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/17/2003 11:04:23 PM | Message Detail |
I
think the Mario/Olimar match can be summed up in a few words I came up
with in the Prophet match I did for these two....*ahem*...
"Olimar is gardening in Mario's backyard."
Get it?
I like it.
:)
Anyway, as for Wario and Shadow....tough one.
But
I think Wario has the more game exposure and thus, should squeak by
Shadow....but the pic of Shadow and the fact we have a psuedo
Mario/Sonic match going on here.....
...oohhh...I dunno.
Might have a 50-50 tie going down to the final gun.
XD
*remembers last year's Sonic/Samus duel*
OK.....for the sake of the board and mods alike....no, let's have SOMEBODY win convincingly.
Hehe...
---
MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti
(8)Wario vs (9)Shadow the Hedgehog (16/17 pts.) | | From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/18/2003 12:01:22 AM | Message Detail |
Match #15 - Zero VS Scorpion - Review
Zero - 70885 / 62.84%
Scorpion - 41916 / 37.16%
Total - 112801 (2nd highest)
Prediction Percentage - 47.3% (2nd hardest)
My Pick - Scorpion
Analysis Topic Pick - Zero
"Odds" Pick - Zero
Brackets Ruined - 55
Oh
damnit. Last year I underestimated Scorpion, and now I've overestimated
him. And it wasn't even close, Zero geting 63%, 70000 votes on Scorpion
is huge. I guess Zero does have the badass Ninja Robot stylings, and
they sure worked. If Zero keeps this up then the Sonic VS Zero match
next round is going to be close. And if Zero manages to take
down the blue hedgehog, then I can't see Aeris managing to stop Zero
either. Most entrants predicted him to lose his first match, and now
I'd say he has a good shot at making it to the division finals. How
ironic would that be? Last year's Cinderella story losing to this
year's! Anyway, if Zero is doing well, than expect Mega Man to do
oodles better. I can't wait to see him in action!
Match #16 - Sonic VS Ken - Review
Sonic - 73484 / 68.91%
Ken - 33146 / 31.09%
Total - 106630 (7th highest)
Prediction Percentage - 84.4% (12th hardest)
My Pick - Sonic
Analysis Topic Pick - Sonic
"Odds" Pick - Sonic
Brackets Ruined - 23
I'm
a little disappointed with Sonic here. Actually, I'm not, Sonic did
fine. I'm just surprised by how well Zero did. Sonic had no problem
with Ken (and doing better against him than his arch rival Samus is a
bonus too), but now my confidence in the spiky rodent has been shaken.
Sonic won his first match by a larger margin than Zero, but Scorpion is
definitely greater than Ken, so round two hardly has a clear cut
outcome. Right now I think Sonic can still do it, but it's going to be
closer than I would've guessed. If Sonic can beat Zero, than Aeris
shouldn't be too much trouble. I can't fathom him taking Cloud though.
One last question still remains, will any of Sonic's friends be joining
him in round two? Both Shadow and Knuckles have a definite shot, but
I'm skeptical.
Mario certainly gave Olimar a thrashing today. I
have to say I'm surprised. This isn't Mario in Mario/Servebot form,
this is Mario in Mario/Cloud form. How interesting.
I also
wanted to talk about the Squall/Jill match. It was a close match, for
sure, but it's still pretty interesting that most of the "elite" got it
wrong when the majority of entrants got it right. Why is that? Maybe
it's because Jill "should" have won. She definitely had the edge based
on last year's performance, but she still lost. Was it just dumb luck?
Or something...else?
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 14-2 / 14 points won / 2 point lost | | From: creativename | Posted: 7/18/2003 1:03:20 AM | Message Detail |
This
thing was getting dangerously close to oblivion. Someone should bump
this midnight every night; it's the best topic on these boards.
This is mostly a bump, so I'm not going to analyze much. Mario vs. Olimar: nothing too surprising.
Wario
vs. Shadow: Shadow is winning comfortably. This one is big shock to a
hell of a lot a people, and will ruin many perfect brackets--probably
most of them. I'd say 60%-75% of perfect brackets will be ruined by
this result. I hope none of the 3 "0", perfectly imperfect people chose
Shadow...that would really stink for them.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: creativename | Posted: 7/18/2003 1:07:15 AM | Message Detail |
but Scorpion is definitely greater than Ken
I'd
have to disagree here. Ken > Scorpion. If Ken had been in Scorpion's
spot last year, he would have done just as well, and would have
probably fared a teeny bit better against Link even.
Ken has just had horrendous luck with his draw for 2 years in a row now.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004! | | From: cyko | Posted: 7/18/2003 6:38:57 AM | Message Detail |
stupid ugly Wario. >_<
there goes another point......
Top 5 Vote getters
1. Cloud Strife- 94086
2. Link- 92998
3. Mario- 89189
4. Samus Aran- 81123
5. Bowser- 74164
Top 5 Most Pathetic Characters (Least Votes)
1. Aiai- 8802
2. Captain Olimar- 11678
3. CATS- 14168
4. Ratchet- 24099
5. Ness- 24627
Top 5 Blowouts (Biggest Vote Difference)
1. Link over Aiai- 84196
2. Cloud over Cats- 79918
3. Mario over Captain Olimar- 77511
4. Samus over Isaac- 54563
5. Bowser over Ness- 49537
Top 5 Closest Matches
1. Ganondorf over Tidus- 1582
2. Master Chief over Felix- 6318
3. Squall over Jill Valentine- 19118
4. Kos-Mos over Crash Bandicoot- 23631
5. Zero over Scorpion- 28969
Top 5 Most Impressive Losers
1. Tidus- 57078
2. Felix- 50231
3. Scorpion- 41916
4. Tails- 38685
5. Jill Valentine- 38274
Top 5 Least Impressive Winners
1. Master Chief- 56549
2. Squall- 57392
3. Ganondorf- 58660
4. Magus- 60598
5. KOS-MOS- 61141
Top 5 Biggest Vote Totals
1. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 115738
2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 112801
3. Auron vs. Tails- 108884
4. Cloud vs. CATS- 108254
5. Samus vs. Isaac- 107683
Top 5 Smallest Vote Totals
1. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 91464
2. Yoshi vs. Conker- 92418
3. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 94649
4. Squall vs. Jill- 95666
5. Sora vs. Aeris- 97810
Top 5 Easiest Matches to Pick (Based on Number of Correct Contest Entries)
1. Link vs. Aiai- 99.1%
2. Mario vs. Captain Olimar- 98.0%
3. Cloud vs. CATS- 94.9%
4. Samus vs. Isaac- 93.8%
5. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 87.9%
Top 5 Hardest Matches to Pick
1. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 42.5%
2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 47.3%
3. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 47.7%
4. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 56.9%
5. Pikachu vs. Fox McCloud- 57.4 %
---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti | | From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/18/2003 1:00:55 PM | Message Detail |
Can
someone explain to me how Shadow beat Wario? Because I completely
didn't see that coming. Especially with Wario's recent game releases.
Did we underestimate the "cool" factor and over estimate the "new game"
influence? I really thought the percentages would be reversed.
Also, someone find me the perfect who picked Olimar over Mario. That boy needs to be smacked. ;)
The
only thing I might suggest is a different colour scheme, but even that
might be hard to do, as the different rounds need to be easily
distinguished from each other.
Yeah, that's the problem.
I've tried a variety of different schemes, including a
GameFAQs-inspired "shades of blue" theme, but it was too hard to easily
distinguish one round from another, particularly in the "Top 10"
sections. So in the end I settled on a CGA-inspired theme. ;) It offers
plenty of contrast, and it's a little brighter than last year. I'm
hoping it won't make some of the text harder to read though. The green
and cyan are a bit sharp. Oh well, I'll keep playing around. :)
P.S. New poll up on the stats site.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com | | From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/18/2003 1:25:52 PM | Message Detail |
I don't know why Shadow is leading by this
much! But I won't complain since I'm a Shadow fan! :P But I think part
of the reason is that Sega/Sonic fans rallying around their characters,
especially after Tails bit it early against Auron.
But maybe we
overestimated Wario's popularity. Once again, this is another scenario
that number of games & longevity doesn't equal popularity.
Also,
I think this convincing victory by Shadow will breathe some life into
Knuckles chances. Cuz let's face it, when Tails was beaten soundly by
Auron, we all thought than all of the Sonic sub-characters would be one
& done. But it's safe to say that Yuna will perform better than
Wario is right now, but now that match becomes interesting again, at
least in my view. | | From: Kirby Still On Top | Posted: 7/18/2003 1:36:02 PM | Message Detail |
Yay!
---
Peter Griffins sisters mothers brothers sons cousin
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