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Summer 2003 Contest

Stats & Discussion - Summer 2003 Contest

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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/4/2003 9:24:54 AM | Message Detail

Is being seeded third a kiss of death?

heh. So very true.
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SUMMER CONTEST STATS: 34/38 Current Pick: (7)KOS-MOS vs (2)Samus, Boards Hunted: 461

From: GunMage | Posted: 8/4/2003 9:32:40 AM | Message Detail

*SNAP!* That's the sound of broken brackets echoing through the boards as users wakeup to see Squall with a 60-40 lead on Luigi. The way I see it, Luigi just isn't as popular as his older brother. The Green Machine really doesn't have any decent roles in any games besides Luigi's Mansion, which the masses passed over. Squall, on the other hand, has FF8 and Kingdom Hearts. Yes, it's true that Squall really isn't all that well liked, but it looks like Luigi is another casualty of the "sidekick syndrome" that has plagued Tails for the past two years.

And so goes the biggest shocker yet of the 2003 GCB. Let's have more! ^_^
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Who says magic users can't use guns? Best of both worlds, I say.
(GCB Fanfiction: http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=8835220)

From: cyko | Posted: 8/4/2003 9:42:30 AM | Message Detail

Maybe we all overestimated Luigi...or underestimated Squall...or both...call it one of the great mysteries of gaming or something...geesh!

i think it's more that we overestimated Luigi. Mario made it to the finals last year and Luigi's not much different than Mario, right? well, i guess he is different; as in no where near has popular. with Mario, he is a powerhouse, but on his own, it looks like Luigi just can't hack it. there was no contest proof that Luigi was a strong competitor. he defeated Ratchet the nobody, which proves nothing. ew all just expected that he had to be nearly as good as Mario. blind faith, my friends. blind faith has cost me another two points.

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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:06:25 AM | Message Detail

Luigi vs. Squall

Wow. Not only did Squall manage a victory over the green-clothed plumber, but the margin was nearly as big as the one in Squall vs. Jill. This is yet another match where the average picker will probably do better than the "top" pickers, many of which didn't even have Squall winning his opener. In this topic, the posters (including myself) were unaminously in favor of Luigi taking the match, with margin predictions being as high as 60%. This is, without a doubt, the biggest upset in the tournament so far - at least there were acknowledgements that Shadow is stronger than previously thought, and Yuna vs. Knuckles was already widely considered the toughest first-round match to call. This one, though... simply came right out of left field.

Squall unceremoniously bowed out in the first round to Solid Snake last year, barely receiving half the votes of the stealthy agent. However, now it seems that the Squall hate has either been overestimated or eroded - Kingdome Hearts probably did have something to do with it. But perhaps for the Square voters it's a lesser-of-two-evils match. Squall may be annoying, but Luigi is Mario's brother, and Mario's EVIL. Annoying > evil, and Squall's got the vote.

Luigi... wow, I have no idea where people got the idea that he'd be more popular than Mario. If anything, Mario's got the Zelda factor: Mario Tennis, Mario Kart, Mario Sunshine, etc. Luigi's face isn't the one plastered on countless Nintendo products. Luigi isn't the one who makes cameos in other Nintendo games. Hell, if you really think about it, Luigi's had one playable appearance over the past decade in a non-spinoff game - and that game happened to be the universally panned Luigi's Mansion. The developers even saw fit to leave him out in Mario RPG and Paper Mario (both of which bear Mario's name, if you haven't noticed).

So Luigi's got the Nintendo vote, but casual voters aren't likely to vote him. The only way Luigi might leave a mark on casual voters' minds is via Luigi's Mansion, and few have fond memories of that game. FF8 was the best-selling FF (or did FFX surpass it? Either way, it did better than both fellow PSX FFs), and Kingdom Hearts is still fresh on people's minds. Put that together and it's a comfortable victory for Squall.

Squall's upset doesn't give him much of a better chance against Samus, though. Not only will Nintendo anti-votes would be swinging full force, but Samus has a much better control of the casual vote, as well. Metroid Prime and Fusion are just as fresh and memorable as Kingdom Hearts, and did better with the critics. Of course, I wouldn't be ruling out anything after this match, but I still say Samus has this with around 60%.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: Lancelot BT | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:18:51 AM | Message Detail

Just noticed something about last years contest; compared to this year's contest, it's brackets were so unfairly drawn out. Obviously taking into account last year's results, this year's brackets will be fairer, however you'd have thought that CJay would have known how popular some characters would have been last year.

The main gripe I have with last years brackets are that the South division is devoid of any competition for Link, while the West division is stacked with four #1 or #2 seeds in this years contest, and a few novelty characters who perform surprisingly well too. You may say that CJay chose the seeds based on who he thought were more popular characters, but how could he sanely put Sephiroth, Sonic, Samus and Mega Man in the same division (this especially annoys me when you look at the seeding that Seph got).

Ah well, that's my rant over, just had to get that off my chest.

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Lancelot BT, gawdess of the Legends and Official owner of the "Hi, my name is (username) and I'm a Legend." Topic Ž™

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:21:47 AM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: steve illumina | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:22:07 AM | Message Detail

"i think it's more that we overestimated Luigi. Mario made it to the finals last year and Luigi's not much different than Mario, right? well, i guess he is different; as in no where near has popular. with Mario, he is a powerhouse, but on his own, it looks like Luigi just can't hack it. there was no contest proof that Luigi was a strong competitor. he defeated Ratchet the nobody, which proves nothing. ew all just expected that he had to be nearly as good as Mario. blind faith, my friends. blind faith has cost me another two points."

Cyko: Well said and thought out, and I totally agree. I figured Luigi would ride the coattails of the King of Platformers and make it to Samus and give her a run for her money. Alas, it will not be so...

Also, I like your other thread you started about hatred of Squall and him burning in Hades. Gave me a much needed laugh today.
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~Steve Illumina~ Round 2: 2/2 Today: Go Luigi!
Official Sephiroth Supporter: Summer Contest 2003

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:23:16 AM | Message Detail

Oh, and I have to say that the amount of conclusions this board draws over one match is astounding. Since Squall beat Lugi, it's obvious that Samus would die a painful death against KOS-MOS.

With this sort of rhetoric going around, it's no wonder that the average score this year at the end of round one is actually lower than that of last year, despite easier matches to pick.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:05:12 PM | Message Detail

I would this match should definitly get the award for biggest upset so far this contest. Last night we had four or five people commiting account suicide over Luigi's loss. First Ganondorf and now Luigi. Not a good day for Nintendo fanboys.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: bhaalspawn | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:13:03 PM | Message Detail

Does this mean that bigger upsets are in store, maybe Link is pushing it a bit as he has so much support but Samus vs Squall could very well be an upset.
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Ay ay ay! Es un desastre de bocadillos de jamon York

From: Seijun | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:20:10 PM | Message Detail

Well... at least the North Division looks a bit more even in a way. Two Nintendo characters (provided that the last battle isn't another upset ^^;;) and two Square characters making it to Round 3. Nice.

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Congrats, dude. You've defeated a boy with a tiara, his sister and a squirrel.

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/4/2003 2:03:09 PM | Message Detail

Time for me to post something somewhat useful:

More fun with "The Odds."

1st round losers are in italics, I also included each character's seed.

1-Link 17571
2-Sephiroth 3265
1-Mario 2953
1-Cloud 2482
1-Snake 2378
3-Vercetti 2260
2-Samus 1688
3-Master Chief 1488
4-Crono 650
2-Mega Man 599
2-Sonic 480
4-Dante 384
7-KOS-MOS 367
12-Kefka 286
13-Magus 284
6-Alucard 238
7-Zero 236
8-Auron 215
10-Zelda 190
6-Squall 185
7-Lara 176
11-Aeris 160
3-Kirby 149
16-CATS 138
7-Gordon 120
9-Shadow 118
12-Ness 117
5-Pac-Man 104
6-Sora 104
4-Sam 101
5-Tidus 97
9-Yuna 95
5-Ryu 93
14-Ramza 86
15-Isaac 82
11-Vyse 80
3-Luigi 79
4-Yoshi 75
15-Raziel 69
14-Kite 62
10-Scorpion 55
12-Ganondorf 52
11-Jill 51
14-Felix 50
13-Conker 49
13-Ryo 43
12-Duke Nukem 41
8-Pikachu 40
8-Knuckles 36
8-Wario 36
9-Tails 33
5-Bowser 31
10-Max 30
6-Donkey Kong 29
15-Resetti 29
13-Tom Nook 26
9-Fox 25
15-Ken 23
16-Raiden 21
14-Ratchet 18
16-AiAi 13
10-Crash 9
11-Bomberman 9
16-Olimar 7

Pretty standard stuff. The top twenty based on the odds all still remain. Lara is the most popular character to lose so far (which is interesting, I guess some still see her as a strong force), even though 176 brackets still isn't all that much.

Fox, DK, Max, Bowser, and Knuckles are on the top of list of round two survivors with the lowest odds. Fox is already gone, Max and Knuckles never had a chance. Donkey Kong was supposed to lose his second round match, but now it looks like he could win, (again, making him quite possibly the luckiest of all contestants) against Vercetti of all people. We'll have to wait and see if 29 > 2260. And then there's Bowser, who was supposed to beat Yoshi but now it looks like he could very well lose that match.

Round two will be fun, as lots of larger names will fall, mainly Master Chief and possibly Vercetti.

Also, it looks like seed three is definitely not the place to be. Luigi's dead, Master Chief will be for sure. Kirby only has the slightest chance, and Vercetti will have to try his hardest to squeak past DK!

Don't feel too bad if you've lost two points because Squall beat Luigi, because 1984 (almost five percent) brackets have a first round loser winning the entire thing.
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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 30-4 / 32 points won / 4 points lost / Tied at #657

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/4/2003 3:38:23 PM | Message Detail

News:

The stats site is updated. This year the Complete Full Lists section will not suffer the ugly form that it did most of last year. But - the results will appear in their proper order, however they won't be numbered until the end of the year (unless someone knows how to get an HTML list working inside a table). The reason for this is simply that it's far too much work to manually renumber every entry for every category every day (especially as the number of entries approaches 63 or 126). I'm just not going to do it.

Also, I'm behind on my poll questions, so I'm going to throw the next two up quickly and then I'll open it up to suggestions. So start thinking of cool poll ideas.

Yesmar - Oh, and isn't Aeris the only person to be in the same exact spot both years?

Yeah, she's the only one in the exact same spot (seeding and division).

FFantasyFX - A hypothetical though: If this match had been held tomorrow, Monday, rather than today, would Gannon have won?

That is a very interesting question. Almost surely Ganondorf would have done better, but I still don't think it would have been enough. Let's assume that 70 votes were being cast per minute (which seems to be about average according to Jjukil's numbers). So that's 1050 votes per update. Now, at his peak, Ganondorf was gaining an average of around 50 votes per update on Magus. So Magus was getting 500 votes, Ganondorf 550. In order to close the 650 vote gap, he would have needed the equivalent of another 13 updates, which is 13,650 votes. That would have put the total votes for the match at 123,358, nearly 8,000 votes higher than the current record. While that's not inconceivable, it's still more than I would expect the poll to have, even on a Monday. But still, that's a very cool thought.

Slowflake - Is being seeded third a kiss of death?

I wish you'd pointed that out before I made my bracket... ;P

Samberdog - Don't feel too bad if you've lost two points because Squall beat Luigi, because 1984 (almost five percent) brackets have a first round loser winning the entire thing.

Well, I still feel bad, but I love seeing this stat, so that cheered me up a little. :)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/4/2003 4:03:47 PM | Message Detail

Last night's results:

12 - Ganondorf - 54529 / 49.70% (109708)
13 - Magus - 55179 / 50.30% (109708) - 9955 / 24.2%

Updated lists:

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Magus 50.30% vs. Ganondorf 49.70% - (0.60%)
2) Ganondorf 50.68% vs. Tidus 49.32% - (1.36%)
3) Kefka 50.95% vs. Pac-Man 49.05% - (1.90%)
4) Master Chief 52.96% vs. Felix 47.04% - (5.92%)
5) Max Payne 53.99% vs. Gordon Freeman 46.01% - (7.98%)
6) Knuckles the Echidna 55.32% vs. Yuna 44.68% - (10.64%)
7) Kirby 57.66% vs. Ramza Beoulve 42.34% - (15.32%)
8) Squall Leonhart 59.99% vs. Jill Valentine 40.01% - (19.98%)
9) KOS-MOS 61.98% vs. Crash Bandicoot 38.02% - (23.96%)
10) Zelda 62.29% vs. Lara Croft 37.71% - (24.58%)

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Magus 55179 vs. Ganondorf 54529 - (650)
2) Ganondorf 58660 vs. Tidus 57078 - (1582)
3) Kefka 47678 vs. Pac-Man 45905 - (1773)
4) Master Chief 56549 vs. Felix 50231 - (6318)
5) Max Payne 49281 vs. Gordon Freeman 41997 - (7284)
6) Knuckles the Echidna 56363 vs. Yuna 45531 - (10832)
7) Kirby 57862 vs. Ramza Beoulve 42482 - (15380)
8) Squall Leonhart 57392 vs. Jill Valentine 38274 - (19118)
9) KOS-MOS 61141 vs. Crash Bandicoot 37510 - (23631)
10) Donkey Kong 61027 vs. Vyse 36743 - (24284)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) Ganondorf vs. Tidus - 115738
2) Zelda vs. Lara Croft - 113881
3) Zero vs. Scorpion - 112801
4) Sephiroth vs. Raziel - 110202
5) (ii) Magus vs. Ganondorf - 109708
6) Auron vs. Miles "Tails" Prower - 108884
7) Cloud Strife vs. CATS - 108254
8) Samus Aran vs. Isaac - 107683
9) Master Chief vs. Felix - 106780
10) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Ken - 106630

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) Tidus - 57078
2) (ii) Ganondorf - 54529
3) Felix - 50231
4) Pac-Man - 45905
5) Yuna - 45531
6) Lara Croft - 42940
7) Ramza Beoulve - 42482
8) Gordon Freeman - 41997
9) Scorpion - 41916
10) (ii) Fox McCloud - 39180

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) Kefka - 47678
2) Max Payne - 49281
3) (ii) Magus - 55179
4) Knuckles the Echidna - 56363
5) Master Chief - 56549
6) Squall Leonhart - 57392
7) Kirby - 57862
8) Ganondorf - 58660
9) Magus - 60598
10) Donkey Kong - 61027

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) (ii) Magus 24.2% vs. Ganondorf
2) Shadow the Hedgehog 42.1% vs. Wario 57.9%
3) KOS-MOS 42.5% vs. Crash Bandicoot 57.5%
4) Kefka 43.5% vs. Pac-Man 56.5%
5) Zero 47.3% vs. Scorpion 52.7%
6) Ganondorf 47.7% vs. Tidus 52.3%
7) Knuckles the Echidna 50.2% vs. Yuna 49.8%
8) Magus 56.9% vs. Sam Fisher 43.1%
9) Fox McCloud 57.4% vs. Pikachu 42.6%
10) Auron 60.7% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 39.3%

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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/4/2003 4:57:08 PM | Message Detail

Today, folks, I'd like to tell a little story I call "Insult to Injury".

Those of you who caught my whiny little rant for the three hours I could stand to leave it on the topic know that I was disappointed in the contest after Ganondorf vs. Magus. After all, I'd been hoping Magus really was a top tier; instead, the results seem to imply Tidus and Magus are almost equal. When it comes to Tidus, that leaves me a little...well, let's say upset. =P

So, for the first time since the contest began...
...I gave in, and went to sleep without staying up for the start of the new poll.

Obviously, I missed:
--The poll's start time and its first few results, which would have documented the contest's first true turnaround.
--The reaction to one of the biggest upsets in the contest's history.
--The exits and suicides of various board members (famous and infamous).

So, not only is the grand conclusion from all my wonderful research shot...I completely missed the excitement that came with it.
Not a good time for me where the contest is concerned. -_-

Like I said in the rant, if anyone cares, I probably won't be around as much anymore...but I doubt I'll be able to give up the place completely. It's a regular addiction, this contest is.

Having said that, here's what today's result means to me:
--Squall is officially this year's upset special.
--The lead characters really do get a lot more credit than their supposedly-popular sidekicks.
--Neither Bowser nor Yoshi will be beating Cloud...although they could still give him a fairly close fight.
--Apparently, last year's roster was good enough after all; we could easily see all of two "snubbed" characters in the Sweet 16--and those would have only beaten one 2002 alumni....

From: Ngamer64 | Posted: 8/4/2003 5:13:30 PM | Message Detail

Jjukil: This match got off to a rather late start, at 12:10 last night. This was the last update with Luigi winning, at about 12:14.

Squall Leonhart 48.08% 451
Luigi 51.92% 487
TOTAL VOTES 938

Or, maybe he was still ahead for one after that... But anyways, just 15 minutes, and Squall had pulled out to a huge lead. Poor Luigi...

---
the-elite.net

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/4/2003 5:24:24 PM | Message Detail

Oh yeah...there is one more thing this match means to me:
--Pictures do NOT spell life or death for a character. =P

Thanks for the stats, Ngamer. Remember, though, that I'm not the one they go to--I was just going to finish the North Division in case someone else decided to do the remaining rounds. Any takers...?

From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/4/2003 5:54:45 PM | Message Detail

Squall is winning???????!!!!!

OMGWTFBBQ!!!

I like Squall, but still. . .

This will probably end up being the biggest surprise of the contest. Something weird is happening here and I don't mean cheating. Could there be some unforeseen hereby nonexistent factor that has failed to manifest itself in last year's contest and this year's contest up to this point?

Could it possibly be a "girl gamer" vote? Squall's pretty much the only male VG character I've heard described as "cute" by girl gamers. Could this be what's going on?

At least with Wario and Shadow, even though Shadow winning was a shock at first after it sunk in, it seemed reasonable. This is just bizarre.

One of Square's "apparently" most disliked characters, versus a big Nintendo character and it's not even close??

This flies in the face of all logic, statistics, and predictions on this board over the past month. What are we missing?

And also, everyone is being very blase about this. Everybody seems to be going: tum-te-tum-te-tum, "Oh what Squall's winning? That's mildly interesting."

Now that I'm finished, I thought of yet another Prediction Contest.

Would anybody be willing to enter a Prediction contest where you Predict how many people will predict an upcoming match correctly. I'll probably start with Cloud and Auron at the latest.

Oh and who all did Luigicides? I thought I saw somebody say earlier today "Goodbye Yuffie 4 Life", but I had just seen them post a few minutes before.
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The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/4/2003 6:09:09 PM | Message Detail

Hey Solar, the topic is almost at 500! I suggest you save it when it gets there for future reference.

Since Squall's fate will be mostly decided by the outcome of tomorrow's match, I decided to merge the review and the preview into one article. But before...

Match #34 extra comments

That's a big vote turnout for a weekend match we have there. The thought of it being even closer on a weekday makes me shudder.

On another note, the winner of this match was guaranteed to be the lowest seed ever to reach the Sweet 16. Congratulations Magus! Also, this 4-pack was the most unpredictable ever, as the previous record was owned by Alucard's (him, Tails, Duke, Iori) last year.

Last thought... have you ever seen such an exciting 12 vs. 13 match?

LOWER NORTH PANDEMONIUM

What happen?

There's nothing like the sound of hundreds of voices screaming in unison. -Kefka

How true. The outcry following yesterday's match as well as today's is hilarious, even if I have a reason for complaining myself... *points to sig* However, the dozens of account suicides that happened right after I went back to bed, started by Wylvane, the resident Luigi fanboy... we could have done without it, even though some people liked the entertainment value. I never got to read any of the texts, nor do I want to. From what I understand, Yuffie 4 Life did it too. You'll be missed. If Jjukil got the puke bags for Ganon/Magus, most of us used them for today's match.

Squall set up Luigi the Poltergust: Forget about Tina, Morrigan, Scorpion and Shadow, Squall's win nets him the absolute biggest upset in the history of the Summer Contest, the title of Upset Special and the lead of the race for the Star Of The Round award. So few people saw it coming it's frightening... I think only 5 people picked Squall in the Prophet Challenge. Talk about ridiculous... you just have to pick Squall, by 1 or 1 million, and there you go, top 5 4 U. I can't wait to see how many got it right... maybe it's just less than even Magus. 4 perfects have been confirmed to have Luigi as the winner (and what about RPGexpert, who's back in the leaderboard after picking Wario?), but then again, most experts picked Squall to be out first round. This leads to our next point...

I had Luigi over Jill!: Believe it or not, Luigi's not doing much better than Jill against Squall... which means that even if Jill beat Squall, she could have had a great shot at Luigi.

Threes' Troubled Trial: Of course, everyone took note of my comments on 3-seeds and how Luigi was the only one deserving. Well, he should have been seeded not only below Link and Samus, but also below Tidus, Ganondorf, Magus, Squall and maybe even Jill and KOS-MOS. Result: ALL 3-seeds so far (including the ones in 2002) were way overseeded... Master Chief is certain to lose, Kirby'll need an act of God to win (not unlike today's), and Vercetti's not sure to get past that dummy DK.

Icy Shower: Upsets always remind us that nothing's a lock, however such a massive one gives many, me included, that the tournament is going in a completely different tangent, and I'm not talking about momentum, what the Square side seemed to lose after four horrid performances (Kefka, Ramza, Yuna, Magus), but the feeling of total insecurity, that the only impossible thing from now on is Max Payne beating Sephiroth. And of course, I might join my voice to all those wondering, where was the Square support during the four aforementioned matches?
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 34/36, 0 lost . . . . . T-51 (183-way)
Today's pick: Luigi over Jill

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/4/2003 6:09:59 PM | Message Detail

But... Luigi's a freakin' legend!: First, this is GameFAQs, where a merchant from a subpar RPG can be a legend too. But the key explanation was probably given by a previous poster: ever since Super Mario World, Luigi's been playable in ONE non-spinoff game, the universally bashed Luigi's Mansion (Luigi was awesome in it, no matter how horrid the game was). Could it be frustration among Mario fans? Or the fact that Luigi slipped further and further into oblivion with each no-show? SMRPG... Link and Samus are in, but not Luigi. Mario 64... not in the game, but hoaxes as big as the Triforce in OoT were all around the Internet. Paper Mario... Luigi WATCHES OVER THE HOUSE. I'd have traded pretty much ANY teammate for Luigi. And SMS... totally snubbed there too. I ask, why did Luigi fall so far from his prime? Everyone thought Luigi was closer to Mario than Squall to Cloud. Could have Kingdom Hearts helped THIS much?

KOS-MOS vs. Samus: With today's result, one could wonder if another gigantic upset could happen tomorrow. The answer? Probably not... Samus has a lot of staying power not to be forgotten for 8 years without a game, and to have a monster success with the recent titles. Granted, Xenosaga 2 has been announced a few weeks ago, but only games that have been out for a certain period of time will matter. And, her beating of Crash wasn't that convincing... Crash got only 18% against a top-tier character (Sephiroth) last year. Samus will probably win, but if the tide has really shifted in the contest, it could be closer that previously thought. And guess who's waiting in the wings... the Cinderella of the tournament, Squall. If KOS-MOS somehow manages the upset, Squall's chances to go to the Elite 8 are greatly improved, same if Samus wins in a very close match. Nevertheless, it's the first time ever that a mildly hyped match (Luigi vs. Samus) will not happen.

Bowser vs. Yoshi: Here's another match where today's results make some outcomes questionable. So, Luigi, Mario's long-time sidekick, is kicked out by Squall. Someone compared Luigi to Tails... BUT... is Yoshi another Tails... or a Knuckles, who's much more appealing? Yoshi's history is not without its fair share of disappointments, just like Luigi. Mario 64... can't ride him, practically useless unless you really suck at the last level. Yoshi's Story... let's not bring that into the discussion. SSBM? Bowser's a bottom-tier, so Yoshi can easily be higher. Mario Sunshine... Yay! We can ride him! Will he be perceived as a redeeming element by people who hated the game? Perhaps if there is a newfound joy like this, he can gain the upper hand... but still, there's another element...

That one Poll of the Day: No need for presentation, this poll was toted as the reason Yoshi could make the Final 4 back in June. The problem... Guess who was second, behind Yoshi? LUIGI! So I guess it doesn't mean much now, isn't it? However, Bowser was so far behind in that poll that it does deserve some thought.

Final question: Unless I missed something, this has not been asked yet. For the first time ever, I was there for the beginning of a poll... how the hell did Luigi take the early lead? This isn't a case of crazy fanbase like CATS... what happen?
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 34/36, 0 lost . . . . . T-51 (183-way)
Today's pick: Luigi over Jill

From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/4/2003 6:25:51 PM | Message Detail

Believe it or not, Luigi's not doing much better than Jill against Squall... which means that even if Jill beat Squall, she could have had a great shot at Luigi.

Well, if Jill had beat Squall than she couldn't have lost by the same amount as Luigi, so the whole point is negated.

And of course, I might join my voice to all those wondering, where was the Square support during the four aforementioned matches?

Good point.

This whole sudden Square swing is weird. Could it be backlash from Magus? So soon?

I'm also considering the Prejudiced Casual Gamer point of view. Would a casual gamer vote for Squall, believing Luigi was too "kiddy."

This would also explain Fox's semi-surprising beatdown of Pikachu, Bowser's great performance compared to Yoshi's lackluster one, Kefka's close race, Shadow's win, and Dante's blowout.

Just a thought
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The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/4/2003 7:22:34 PM | Message Detail

D'OH!

Change that to "If Jill had beaten up a total wimp". I think everyone understood the point I was trying to make anyway.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 34/36, 0 lost . . . . . T-51 (183-way)
Today's pick: Luigi over Jill

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/4/2003 8:27:57 PM | Message Detail

Some Link vs. Fox analysis:

Well, Link continues to cruise in this contest. Fox was a slightly more worthy opponent than AiAi, but not by much. Link's vote total dropped from a first round 93000 down to a still-impressive 81000, and his percentage went from an amazing 91% to an entirely respectable 82%. No sign of weakness yet.

Fox got a better draw this year than last (lost to Cloud in the first round), but his luck ran out when he hit the defending champ in the second round. His vote total tumbled from 68000 (69%) to a mere 17000 (18%). He was just no match for Link.

One of the things the Top 10 Lists don't tell you is that this match ranked a surprisingly low 11th-last for total votes. Only 98409 votes for a second round match? I guess the totals don't really start jumping until the third round, but even still this should have been a little higher. Link's previous match broke 101000, and Fox's last was slightly above this one at almost 99000. Chalk it up to the weekend?

The most significant stat however is this: 95.4% of the entrants predicted Link to win. That's astonishingly high for any match, let alone a second round tilt. It's currently 4th on the Top 10 Easiest to Predict list. Compare it to the easiest second round match to predict last year, which was Mega Man over Serious Sam. Only 84.7% got that one right. Put it this way: More people thought Link would beat AiAi and Fox/Pikachu than thought Cloud would beat CATS. No seriously, think about that. And look at the other matches it's ahead of: Sephiroth/Raziel, Samus/Isaac, Crono/Nook, Snake/Raiden, etc. I think it's fair to say a lot of people have bet heavily on Link. Not that I blame them...
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Terran | Posted: 8/4/2003 8:40:41 PM | Message Detail

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) Ganondorf vs. Tidus - 115738
2) Zelda vs. Lara Croft - 113881
3) Zero vs. Scorpion - 112801
4) Sephiroth vs. Raziel - 110202
5) (ii) Magus vs. Ganondorf - 109708
6) Auron vs. Miles "Tails" Prower - 108884
7) Cloud Strife vs. CATS - 108254
8) Samus Aran vs. Isaac - 107683
9) Master Chief vs. Felix - 106780
10) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Ken - 106630

With still about 3.5hrs to go, Squall/Luigi is only roughly 1000 votes off of this chart. They may even beat it...

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) Tidus - 57078
2) (ii) Ganondorf - 54529
3) Felix - 50231
4) Pac-Man - 45905
5) Yuna - 45531
6) Lara Croft - 42940
7) Ramza Beoulve - 42482
8) Gordon Freeman - 41997
9) Scorpion - 41916
10) (ii) Fox McCloud - 39180

Despite only getting 40% of the vote thus far, because of the high vote total, Luigi has already suprased Fox, Scorpion and Gordon in this category. I doubt he'll best Tidus's record, but perhaps he'll manage another 12k votes to put him ahead of Ganondorf?

---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
Bracket Points/Rec: 31 out of 36/29-5 (85.29%) Picked: Luigi

From: Terran | Posted: 8/4/2003 8:41:47 PM | Message Detail

10) (ii) Fox McCloud - 39180

This is in error btw, Fox got 17193 votes...

---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
Bracket Points/Rec: 31 out of 36/29-5 (85.29%) Picked: Luigi

From: Terran | Posted: 8/4/2003 8:44:18 PM | Message Detail

Well, if Jill had beat Squall than she couldn't have lost by the same amount as Luigi, so the whole point is negated.

I think the point is that if it was a Luigi vs. Jill match in round 1, rather then Squall vs. Jill, Jill might've beaten Luigi...

---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
Bracket Points/Rec: 31 out of 36/29-5 (85.29%) Picked: Luigi

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/4/2003 9:06:14 PM | Message Detail

Some Magus vs. Ganondorf analysis:

For the second round in a row, Ganondorf was in a fight for his life. Only this time it was he who was desperately trying to pull off the last-second comeback. But like Tidus before him, it was simply too little, too late. As the evening voters returned, Magus pulled away and gave Ganondorf a taste of his own medicine.

Not surprisingly, Ganondorf's numbers from the two rounds are reasonably similar. His vote total for this match was 55000, only a few thousand short of his nearly 59000 last match. What's more interesting is that his percentage dropped less than one point (50.68% down to 49.70% - a difference of 0.98%), but that was just enough to reverse the outcome. It seems that Ganondorf has all he can handle with Square's middle-weights (if it's fair to call them that... you may disagree).

Magus' performance was a surprise to the many who thought he could pull off an inspired run similar to Crono's performance last year. If anything, this must suggest that Magus isn't near the popularity of Crono, despite what some have claimed. Crono nearly took down Mario after all, and Magus just barely made it past Ganondorf.

Magus' votes only dropped by about 5000 (60500 down to 55000), even though he had a comfortable win over Sam Fisher in the first round (66%). Blame it on wildly different total votes. Magus' first round match was the second least popular at 91464, while this match reached number five on the most popular at 109708. The most popular is still Ganondorf's first round match at 115738.

What's interesting to note is that Magus actually beat Ganondorf with fewer votes (55179) than Tidus lost to him with (57078). Bizarre. Ganondorf claims second on the Most Impressive Losers list, right below Tidus (imagine that). I wonder if Magus will join them next round? Maybe not.

The most interesting stat, again, is the prediction percentage. A pathetic 24.2% predicted Magus to win this. You never would have guessed it with the discussion highly favoring Magus on the boards. Less than a quarter! Guess how many matches have ever been lower than that? Three: Scorpion over Pac-Man (third round 2002 - 17.3%), Crono over Snake (fourth round 2002 - 14.6%), and Link over Mario (finals, 2002 - 12.8%). That's astonishing. Imagine what that number would look like if Magus were to get farther in this contest?

Next up for Magus is Link in round three. Some thought this would be an interesting match a while ago, but after Magus' struggles with Ganondorf and Link's continued dominance, this looks to be a lock for the man in green.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/4/2003 9:09:24 PM | Message Detail

"this looks to be a lock for the man in green."

...

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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 30-4 / 32 points won / 4 points lost / Tied at #657

From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/4/2003 9:58:37 PM | Message Detail

That's pretty cool. At this time, Magus is the 4th most underestimated character over the past 2 years, after Link, Crono, and Scorpion! It doesn't matter if he loses to Link now, because he's really shown everybody what he's got. *laughs at the anti-Magus group* Of course, Squall could very well be an even bigger surprise.

Do you guys also realize that Luigi *might* (note the asterisks) be only a bit more popular than KIRBY? Jill barely past Kirby, and Jill performed almost as well as Luigi is currently.

We must not forget that Planet GameCube isn't providing links to the Summer 2003 Contest at the moment, so that might also help explain Mario vs. Cloud last year, along with Luigi's destruction against Squall. (And before anyone argues, I'm sure the differences were only a couple thousand extra votes in favor of Nintendo) There haven't been any matches that have truly shown that Nintendo is as powerful this year as last year so far. Don't say Kirby vs. Ramza...because Final Fantasy Tactics just isn't played much by casual gamers, and any art from FFT just isn't very appealing.

Who knows...a lot of this gives me the impression that Crono has a better chance against Mario this time around. Let's wait until Magus vs. Link, though...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:08:14 PM | Message Detail

Haste2: LOL, I was wondering if & when someone was going to take a shot at my username! :)

Who knows...a lot of this gives me the impression that Crono has a better chance against Mario this time around. Let's wait until Magus vs. Link, though...

Yeah, Mario vs Crono was the toughest pick for my bracket, and now I'm uneasy about picking Mario. And your right, so far (save Link) Nintendo IS looking weaker this year. It'll be interesting how Samus, Mario, & Kirby fair in their second rounders.

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:18:02 PM | Message Detail

I'm sure the differences were only a couple thousand extra votes in favor of Nintendo

Uhh... PGC may be one of the most popular fan sites out there, but THOUSANDS of extra votes? I have a tough time seeing the site getting that many visitors period, let alone visitors that don't regularly come to GameFAQs. There are 3600 members of their forums... but most of them probably come here too. I don't think PGC got Mario more than a couple hundred votes.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:19:51 PM | Message Detail

Eh...I've never visited PGC in my life. I imagined it would be a pretty big site.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: Terran | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:25:51 PM | Message Detail

There are 3600 members of their forums... but most of them probably come here too.

Just as a side note, I imagine that the majority of the people who visit PGC are not forum members.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
Bracket Points/Rec: 31 out of 36/29-5 (85.29%) Picked: Luigi

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/4/2003 10:25:55 PM | Message Detail

PGC's big, but their audience overlaps with GameFAQs a lot.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: Cthulhu | Posted: 8/4/2003 11:09:39 PM | Message Detail

When a match such as Magus vs Ganon gets a 24% correct prediction rate, is that 24% of all people who picked Magus over Ganon or 24% who picked Magus over Tidus/Ganon?

From: swirldude | Posted: 8/4/2003 11:12:44 PM | Message Detail

It's of who predicted Magus to be in the Third Round. Say someone predicted a Tidus vs Sam match here with Sam winning. Sam is NOT Magus, and therefore, they got it wrong. This is why Magus's prediction rate over Ganondorf is only 25%
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One green character kills everyone, the other is grounded by a gun wielder. Go figure.

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/4/2003 11:15:16 PM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: Old Master Q | Posted: 8/4/2003 11:33:28 PM | Message Detail

hmm... so if Link wins this whole tournament.... more people would have predicted the winner of the whole thing than the winner of Magus/Tidus/Ganondorf/Sam..... interesting...
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TROGDOR!!
Sum2k3 score - 32/36 Next pick: Luigi

From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/4/2003 11:37:27 PM | Message Detail

What's also interesting is that 38% of the people predicted Squall to get to Round 3...that makes us look pretty bad. =p And look, 4 perfects still remain. Those guys are friggin' GENIUSES.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: Xuxon | Posted: 8/4/2003 11:39:40 PM | Message Detail

Are my eyes deceving me, or did more than 15000 people pick Squall to win against Luigi? That means that of those that predicted a Luigi vs Squall matchup, about 2/3 picked Squall! Insane...
---
Supporting Mega Man in the Summer 2003 Contest
Current Score: 35/38 Current Prediction: Samus

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/5/2003 12:20:37 AM | Message Detail

Hmmm... well, I said way back around post 440 or so that more people than expected would get Squall vs. Luigi right... "maybe as high as 35%." So, although I'm not that good at predicting how people will vote, I'm pretty good at predicting how people will predict how people will vote. Or something.

*basks in glory*
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/5/2003 12:33:10 AM | Message Detail

Tonight's results:

6 - Squall Leonhart - 69958 / 60.21% (116190) - 15642 / 38.1%
3 - Luigi - 46232 / 39.79% (116190)

Updated lists:

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Magus 50.30% vs. Ganondorf 49.70% - (0.60%)
2) Ganondorf 50.68% vs. Tidus 49.32% - (1.36%)
3) Kefka 50.95% vs. Pac-Man 49.05% - (1.90%)
4) Master Chief 52.96% vs. Felix 47.04% - (5.92%)
5) Max Payne 53.99% vs. Gordon Freeman 46.01% - (7.98%)
6) Knuckles the Echidna 55.32% vs. Yuna 44.68% - (10.64%)
7) Kirby 57.66% vs. Ramza Beoulve 42.34% - (15.32%)
8) Squall Leonhart 59.99% vs. Jill Valentine 40.01% - (19.98%)
9) (ii) Squall Leonhart 60.21% vs. Luigi 39.79% - (20.42%)
10) KOS-MOS 61.98% vs. Crash Bandicoot 38.02% - (23.96%)

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) (ii) Magus 55179 vs. Ganondorf 54529 - (650)
2) Ganondorf 58660 vs. Tidus 57078 - (1582)
3) Kefka 47678 vs. Pac-Man 45905 - (1773)
4) Master Chief 56549 vs. Felix 50231 - (6318)
5) Max Payne 49281 vs. Gordon Freeman 41997 - (7284)
6) Knuckles the Echidna 56363 vs. Yuna 45531 - (10832)
7) Kirby 57862 vs. Ramza Beoulve 42482 - (15380)
8) Squall Leonhart 57392 vs. Jill Valentine 38274 - (19118)
9) KOS-MOS 61141 vs. Crash Bandicoot 37510 - (23631)
10) (ii) Squall Leonhart 69958 vs. Luigi 46232 - (23726)

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) (ii) Squall Leonhart vs. Luigi - 116190
2) Ganondorf vs. Tidus - 115738
3) Zelda vs. Lara Croft - 113881
4) Zero vs. Scorpion - 112801
5) Sephiroth vs. Raziel - 110202
6) (ii) Magus vs. Ganondorf - 109708
7) Auron vs. Miles "Tails" Prower - 108884
8) Cloud Strife vs. CATS - 108254
9) Samus Aran vs. Isaac - 107683
10) Master Chief vs. Felix - 106780

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) Tidus - 57078
2) (ii) Ganondorf - 54529
3) Felix - 50231
4) (ii) Luigi - 46232
5) Pac-Man - 45905
6) Yuna - 45531
7) Lara Croft - 42940
8) Ramza Beoulve - 42482
9) Gordon Freeman - 41997
10) Scorpion - 41916

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) (ii) Magus 24.2% vs. Ganondorf
2) (ii) Squall Leonhart 38.1% vs. Luigi
3) Shadow the Hedgehog 42.1% vs. Wario 57.9%
4) KOS-MOS 42.5% vs. Crash Bandicoot 57.5%
5) Kefka 43.5% vs. Pac-Man 56.5%
6) Zero 47.3% vs. Scorpion 52.7%
7) Ganondorf 47.7% vs. Tidus 52.3%
8) Knuckles the Echidna 50.2% vs. Yuna 49.8%
9) Magus 56.9% vs. Sam Fisher 43.1%
10) Fox McCloud 57.4% vs. Pikachu 42.6%

Well, that hurt. I'm a little surprised at how many got this one right. We were all so sure that Luigi would take it. And now I'm feeling even sillier for having Squall lose in round one. :/
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: lefthando | Posted: 8/5/2003 12:35:06 AM | Message Detail

I did the same thing I thought everyone hated squall
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"It opened all doors brought color to our black and white world"
-my sister after hearing the SNES was ending production(*)

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/5/2003 12:55:21 AM | Message Detail

The new Stats Topic is up here:
Stats & Discussion - Summer 2003 Contest - Mark II
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9361678
Go nuts. :)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/5/2003 1:15:38 AM | Message Detail

Nice job solarshadow.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/5/2003 1:17:30 AM | Message Detail

Hear hear. ^_^

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/5/2003 1:18:50 AM | Message Detail

Planning to stick around, Jjukil?
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/5/2003 1:31:18 AM | Message Detail

He better. This place just wouldn't be the same without him. :)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/5/2003 1:31:42 AM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/5/2003 1:31:44 AM | Message Detail

Go Link!
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

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