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Summer 2003 Contest

Stats & Discussion - Summer 2003 Contest

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From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/1/2003 11:01:59 AM | Message Detail

Welcome. Those of you who recognize me know what this is all about. ;) For everyone else, a brief history:

Last year I began compiling a few modest stats related to the contest, simply with the intention of providing information on what the percentage of contestants correctly predicting each match was. Somehow that spiralled out of control and I ended up keeping detailed stats about the entire contest. :) Well, I started a topic in order to post the nightly update and it eventually morphed into as much a discussion topic as one about stats.

Anyway, this is the 2003 version of that topic. I'll be posting my usual brand of stats each night, and everyone is welcome to post their own comments and analysis as well. Should be fun.

This year's stats website: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com
Last year's stats website: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Last year's stats topic: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

And much thanks of course to last year's crowd. :)

From: ardonite | Posted: 7/1/2003 11:03:08 AM | Message Detail

good to have you back

From: Rodri316 | Posted: 7/1/2003 11:03:37 AM | Message Detail

Awesome! It's great to see the stats are back.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Go Yoshi! Go Kirby! Go Link!
Current points: 0 out of 0

From: ncrdrg3 | Posted: 7/1/2003 11:03:49 AM | Message Detail

^_^ good to see it back!
Current Match: Trashing.. not surprising.. but it shows there's a nice ammount there who'll constantly anti-vote Link.
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sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

From: Bananaquest | Posted: 7/1/2003 11:05:01 AM | Message Detail

Nice to see it back, solarshadow. I'm looking forward to reading some nice stats. ^_^
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Join the Official Magus RPG Party ~ Vote Magus vs. Sam Fisher on July 4th
''Where's the beef?'' - Wendy's hamburger commercial ~ My website www.bananaquest.com

From: dimeat | Posted: 7/1/2003 11:11:29 AM | Message Detail

Nice to have the stats post, was waiting for this board to open again

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/1/2003 11:53:14 AM | Message Detail

Good to see you back.
I was comparing this years votes with last years, or more specifically the Mario vs. Link battle.

Link vs. Aiai 11:15-TOTAL VOTES 48095
Mario vs. Link 11:15-TOTAL VOTES 45865
Difference: 2230

Link vs. Aiai 11:30-TOTAL VOTES 49635
Mario vs. Link 11:30-TOTAL VOTES 47397
Difference: 2238

Link vs. Aiai 11:45-TOTAL VOTES 51191
Mario vs. Link 11:45-TOTAL VOTES 48932
Difference: 2259

But the Link vs. Aiai started about half an hour early. So lets add 30 mins to the Mario vs. Link battle.

Link vs. Aiai 11:15-TOTAL VOTES 48095
Mario vs. Link 11:45-TOTAL VOTES 48932
Difference: -832

Link vs. Aiai 11:30-TOTAL VOTES 49635
Mario vs. Link 12:00-TOTAL VOTES 50463
Difference: -828

Link vs. Aiai 11:45-TOTAL VOTES 51191
Mario vs. Link 12:15-TOTAL VOTES 51994
Difference: -803

Assuming this match goes all the way to midnight, we will see the match break 100000 total votes with Link having 91000 of them. Also if Aiai is lucky, it will break 10000 votes.
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100 NidorinaF(Amber)/100 TangelaM(Spike)/100 HypnoM(Essence)
100 DodrioF(Tritoch)/100 ScizorM(Incision)

From: DebonairBassman | Posted: 7/1/2003 11:55:59 AM | Message Detail

Thank god to have someone smart back on the board from last year, thanks Solar, this is useful, if you need help with stats or whatever hit me up
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Ever wonder if one of the people on this board is really some 45 year old fat guy in the back area of Funcoland playing dungeons and dragons by himself? LCSS

From: JordanM85 | Posted: 7/1/2003 12:28:40 PM | Message Detail

i am from last year.

From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 7/1/2003 12:29:12 PM | Message Detail

It's about 1:30 PM EST, and already this match has had about as many votes as the first match in its entirety did last year-- I wonder how high the totals will go for the interesting matches?
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"You think you're right, but you know you're wrong." -- My friend, master debater

From: zerolaw | Posted: 7/1/2003 12:32:47 PM | Message Detail

good to see that your back for this years. your stat thread was one that i looked for every night last year. nice to see it again.
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Summer 2003 Contest Status: Picks 0/0 Points 0/0
Link vs. AiAi

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/1/2003 12:35:44 PM | Message Detail

Good to see you back solarshadow.
I'm not surprised that the vote totals of this year's first match will eclipse last year's first match. Afterall, this time around more people know about the contest.

From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 7/1/2003 12:36:38 PM | Message Detail

The increased number of voters isn't surprising. More people probably come here for game help than before, not to mention the 300,000 accounts created in the past year.

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/1/2003 1:07:41 PM | Message Detail

* comes in out of storm *

Ugh, the board sure got ugly quick, eh?

I can't believe how many votes are being cast! Y'know something's changed when a first round blow-out gets more votes than last year's final. So why the much improved turn out? I suppose that Link is responsible for at least some of it.

And speaking of Link... wow. What a great start. Any doubts I had in my mind of becoming champion again have been dashed. If the anti-Link vote can't even muster 10%, I can't see how he can lose.
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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 0-0 / 0 points won / 0 points lost

From: Cecil XIX | Posted: 7/1/2003 2:42:01 PM | Message Detail

By themselves, Anti-Link voters are powerless. But against someone who's popular in his own right, they could make the difference.

As for you solarshadow, it's great to have you back. Every tournement needs some play-by-play, and you are no less than perfect for that job.
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- Cecil The Nineteenth. Really.
Proud Member of the Freedom Fighters. Sonic *will* triumph.

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/1/2003 7:02:43 PM | Message Detail

SOLAR!

All right...now for NEXT match, my QUICK TAKE:

Fox will ride the anti-Pokemon wave.
Fox over Pikachu!

Use the Cloud theorem.
Both of these characters faced Cloud last year.
Fox fared better than Pikachu vs Cloud.
Thus, Fox > Pikachu.

Simple....geome....er..algeb......I dunno....numbers n' stuff.

Good to see you back on track, solar!
And as always, Mega Man wins this year!
It has been written, thus it shall be done.
---
MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti
RD. 1: (8)Pikachu vs (9)Fox (1/1 pts.)

From: DebonairBassman | Posted: 7/1/2003 7:12:54 PM | Message Detail

My Link theorem works as this...
Most people when hating him think of the new games, but he was THE RPG in his day when the original came out, everyone knows link, he's nearly as popular as mario, and he has a sword and shield... he's the original hero, and he's in many games that have kept us entertained for years and years
The reason most people are mad is because they are upset they're man isn't winnin it... oh well... hey I repeat, it's good to have solar back
---
Ever wonder if one of the people on this board is really some 45 year old fat guy in the back area of Funcoland playing dungeons and dragons by himself? LCSS

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/1/2003 7:14:27 PM | Message Detail

It's great to have you back Solar!!!
---
"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost"

From: TwistedMentat | Posted: 7/1/2003 7:14:54 PM | Message Detail

To add my $.02 to the discussion...

Granted, there are a lot more people paying attention to this first match than the first match last year, but I don't believe this pace will continue. My opinion is that vote numbers will slowly decrease over the rest of the first round, save for the "big" matches, before beginning their inevitable climb to absurd levels in the next round.

My theory? Even if there are nearly 300,000 more users from last year (myself included, although I saw the first tourney in its entirety), this first match is the novelty part of this. Many people, IMHO, are voting because it's something different than a regular Vote of the Day, but after a few days of this, things will have settled down into a more stable voting pattern.

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/1/2003 7:18:02 PM | Message Detail

Hiya Solarshadow! Awesome to see you're back.

First, a question: Will you have stats to compare the number of votes between the matches of the same date for both contests? Like, Mario/Servbot vs. Link/AiAi? And also, I suggest comparing the totals up to a given point. Like, the first x matches of 2002 vs. the first x matches of 2003.

Secondly... records and milestones set by Link vs. AiAi.

-Most votes ever for a first round match (previous record holder: Cloud vs. Fox at around 72000)
-BARRING MASSIVE CHEATING: Biggest vote gap in SC history
-MAYBE: first match before the division finals to ever hit 100000
-Link: first character ever to have 70000, ALMOST CERTAINLY 80000, MAYBE 90000 votes in one match

Third... preview of Pikachu vs. Fox and review of Link vs. AiAi.

I'll be quick... Pokémon may be back in the groove with the release of Ruby and Sapphire, but still, many Pokémaniacs believe any Pikachus should be killed on sight. I, for one, think basing the franchise around Pikachu over any better-looking Pokémon (Mewtwo anyone?) was a huge marketing success in the short-term, but the biggest mistake EVAR in the long-term. Fox, while obscure, and despite the fact that his most recent title bombed, has much less haters, and if SSBM has any influence on the voting, he'll take the cake even more easily, because of his top-tier capabilities (I don't know how the hell he's top tier, but then again, Sheik is the only top-tier character I'm good with).

As for Link vs. AiAi... my second point pretty much sums it up, along with these three words (the final ones of this loooong post).

FOX... YOU'RE NEXT!!!
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 0/0 . . . . . T-1 (?-way) . . . . . 0 lost

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/1/2003 7:47:59 PM | Message Detail

Aw, man...how did I miss this one.
And how I have missed this one--the best topic of the contest, as far as I'm concerned.

I'll probably be gleaning a lot of the match-review commentary from this topic, actually, If it's okay with you guys. =) I'm still debating whether I should make my own topic or not, but if this one's anything like last year's, mine could never compete anyway....

Now then. Commentary.

...this is scary. O_o; Link is getting entirely too many votes for this matchup. I knew we had more users here now, but I didn't think we'd get twice as many voters again for this contest. I don't even want to think about this year's Mario/Crono....

Like others have said, I'm surprised at the lack of Link anti-votes; I was actually expecting the anti-vote to be magnified for this one. Everyone knew Link couldn't lose this match, so I figured a good number of his fans would vote against him just for fun this time, then vote for him later on. But if this is the best that even that total can muster...well...things really don't look good for Magus and Samus. >_<

Be back later tonight....
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http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
GCBNN: Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update: 7-1-03)

From: Ringworm | Posted: 7/1/2003 7:53:30 PM | Message Detail

Cool. Nice to see your doing the stats again Solar, one of the reasons I took such an interest in last years tournament.

If you need any help figuring out the stats, I can probably set up a spreadsheet that would work out the stats reasonably quickly. I guess that's how you did it last year though, and probably will this year. So if you want any help, just ask.

I'll try to contribute a bit this year anyway, like last year. It might just be bumping the topic, but I guess even that helps.
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Everyone that says ''There's no such thing as a stupid question'', has obviously never visited this board.

From: Seanchan | Posted: 7/1/2003 8:10:25 PM | Message Detail

Nice to see you back Solar. One of the best running topics from last summer which can only get better this year. I look forward to reading!
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"Saying "They're not metal, they suck" is like saying broccoli isn't a vegetable because it looks like a tree." - Ireviewgames

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/2/2003 1:46:43 AM | Message Detail

Here's a little data on Link vs. AiAi for the index:

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Polls Open: From 6-30-03 at 11:23 PM to 7-1-03 at 11:48 PM

Vote Totals: 92998 (Link) to 8802 (AiAi)
Percentages: 91.35% to 8.65%
Margin: 82.7%

Polls Locked to 15-minute Updates: 11:35 PM
Results At That Time: 1624 to 163--90.88% to 9.12%
Accuracy Rating: 99.48%
----

I was going to post it on my match review at the website, but it just fits in better at a Stat Index, you know? =)
---
http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
GCBNN: Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update: 7-1-03)

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/2/2003 1:52:00 AM | Message Detail

The big question is will we see these kind of overall voting numbers throughout the entire 1st round? If not, then I think Link will have this the bag. But Fox v Pikachu has already past 10K, so this may actually be the norm for the entire contest. I just wonder how many votes will see for a marquee matchup if a bottom-feeder match like Link v AiAi got that many?

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 7/2/2003 5:17:03 PM | Message Detail

bump
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Summer Contest 2003: 1 out of 1 points- Co-Leader

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/2/2003 5:24:09 PM | Message Detail

Hmmm... consider this a bump in disguise.

Match #2 Review

Ouch. Fox WOOPS Pikachu with great skill and power that remain unequaled by his opponent. And the worst thing about it is, people are actually surprised at it. Many a Pikachu fan though the rage over Ruby/Sapphire would put the electric mouse on top, and that combined with the dud that is Star Fox Adventures. Neither influenced the outcome: Pikachu haters are still as numerous as ever, even among Pokémaniacs. And Fox had the two original Star Fox titles, and especially the SSBs, behind him. So SFA bombing had little to no meaning. (Dante should take note of this, even though he's still getting the bowels beat out of him by Ryu.)

Match #3 Preview

Hours before the contest started, Ganondorf was believed to have enough potential to give Magus a lot of trouble, and maybe even beat him. Now, the surge of new users through the link on the poll results page has changed that: they make him look like an underdog against Tidus. The same Tidus who nearly lost to Claire Redfield and was beat by (quite frankly, a lackluster) Sonic. And now he faces the champion's "teammate". And while Ganondorf has nothing really special, he has spillover popularity and is Nintendo's best villain IMO. Add the Tidus haters into the mix and you get a Ganondorf win. However, this could either be close or a blowout a little bigger than today's. Saturday's match is my first and only worry for my perfect bracket in the North. Magus-killer or Tidus-jobber? I think somewhere in between.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 1/1 . . . . . T-1 (?-way) . . . . . 0 lost

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/2/2003 5:28:49 PM | Message Detail

Hello everyone. I've just got time for a quick post, so I'll respond to the questions/comments directed at me a little bit later on.

I must say that I'm very surprised at the phenomenal voter turnout for the first match. I expected more interest than last year, but not by this much. The number of voters has almost doubled compared to Mario and Servbot's opening match last year (53,213 votes versus 101,800 for Link/AiAi). What does this say about future rounds? Might we break 200,000? How many would show up for a Mario/Crono rematch? It's a scary thought.

As for today's match, things are playing out pretty much as expected. Comparing Fox and Pikachu's performances last year, we can see (as some have pointed out) that both fought and lost to Cloud. Fox earned 25.39% of the vote in defeat, while Pikachu achieved only 20.49%. This would seem to indicate a fairly easily victory for Fox, although we might expect the outcome to be a little closer than it currently is (68/32). Pikachu seems to be slowly but steadily declining in popularity. As for Fox, good luck next round, buddy...

Tomorrow's match features Tidus and Ganondorf. Examining last year's results doesn't really help us much here. Ganondorf didn't make the 2002 cut, and Tidus didn't fight any comparable characters (he beat Claire with 55.46% and lost to Sonic with 41.17%). However, we can note that while Tidus did well against some popular characters, he wasn't particularly impressive last year. FFX's popularity can be assumed to be in decline, perhaps further affecting Tidus' support. Ganondorf, on the other hand, has the benefit of being associated with the ever-popular Legend of Zelda series, in which he has been featured more recently. Also, he may derive additional support from Link's contest successes. This is our first Nintendo vs. Square bout, but it will certainly not be the most exciting. I expect Ganondorf to take a narrow victory in a relatively uneventful match.
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: cyko | Posted: 7/2/2003 5:44:26 PM | Message Detail

excellent. i enjoyed your stats and commentary last year and look forward to seeing them again this year. (and kudos to ncrdrg for reposting last years stat topic on the board again this year, though its gotta be lost by now.)

personally, i cannot believe the first match this year broke 100,000. only three matches last year broke 100,000: Mario vs. Cloud, Mario vs. Crono, and Link vs. Sephiroth. so is every match going to break 100,000? will any match break 200,000? maybe if Link faces Cloud in the final four? things are getting a lot more interesting this year.

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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: SlangEdter41 | Posted: 7/2/2003 5:50:41 PM | Message Detail

My two cents on match #2:

Jesus are you kiddin me? Like many other board members, I predicted Fox victory, but by this large amount of gap? I expected around 60%-40% at most, boy this is quite surprising. Anti Pika group is much much larger than I imagined. There seems to be many anti-Pikachu gamers even amongst the fans of Pokemon! Could Mewtwo have fared better? Possibly, we'll never know I guess.

On to match #3:

I don't see much of a contest here. While the popularity of Ganondorf remains mystery at this point, it is certainly higher than Tidus'. Legend of Zelda franchize is extremely popular, as number of "Top 100 games of all time" lists feature whopping 3 Zelda games in top 10. No other character in the contest can boast same feat, except Link and Zelda. Will this reason alone make Ganondorf a juggernaut in this contest? It'd be interesting to see which Ganondorf picture CJayC uses for the poll, but I don't think it'll change the inevitable outcome. Your safe Ganondorf, at least for this round.

From: ncrdrg3 | Posted: 7/2/2003 5:54:07 PM | Message Detail

Tidus will go down... but mainly because how bad FFX was trash talked and all that **** about Tidus. It's stupid propaganda of people unable to understand the character if you ask me... but the fact doesn't change that this is a backslash that will assure him a loss to Ganondorf... But if you ask me... the next-gaming fans will then surely rally to Magus too to whoop ganon outta the surface!
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sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16

From: creativename | Posted: 7/2/2003 7:03:15 PM | Message Detail

This is probably the best place to post the analysis I did on last year's results. I used a very simple recursive formula to rank each character in the tournament last year, working backwards from the Link-Mario final.

Here's how it works: Say Character Mario received 36,796 votes in direct competition against Link, who receives 61,415. Mario's value is 36,796. Now we can calculate the value for Crono. Mario received 53,831 votes against Crono's 53,716. Adjust Crono's votes by multiplying by a factor of (36,796 / 53,831). Thus Crono now has a value of 36,717.4. Repeat this for all characters in the poll, working backwards. The results are posted at the link below:

CHARACTER RANKINGS BASED ON 2002 SUMMER CONTEST RESULTS
http://www.eden.rutgers.edu/~saqib/GameFAQs_2002_results.txt

The first column shows what that character was seeded as last year (not really relevant). The important columns are the Votes column and column D. The Votes column shows how many votes the character was expected to receive against Link's constant value of 61,415. Column D converts this into percentage terms.

The conclusion from this reveals Sephiroth and Mega Man to be Link's toughest potential oppoenents, with Samus and Sonic not far behind. Mario, Crono, and Cloud are each on a popularity tier behind Samus and Sonic.

Of course there are a lot of new entrants this year, including some potential powerhouses like Magus, Ganon, Luigi, Yuna, Ramza, Kefka, and Tommy Vercetti. I think the calculations give a good set of guidelines though. I like to compare certain characters with others. For instance, I say that Yuna should be slightly more popular than Tidus, who received an impressive value of 29,572.3. Thus she should beat Knuckles about 60%-40%. However Yuna vs. Snake in the 2nd round becomes extremely difficult to call. I would think Ganon would be around Snake, or between Snake and Cloud on the popularity scale, so I expect him to beat Tidus. It should be close though, and it's tough to guess where Ganon should rank.

Here are the most popular characters from last year's tournament, along with their values:

The first column is the character name, the 2nd is their value in terms of votes, and the third is the % of votes they would be expected to receive when matched up against Link 1-on-1)

Link_______________61,415.0_____50.00%
Sephiroth__________47,001.6_____43.35%
Mega Man__________46,058.2_____42.86%
Samus Aran________42,290.2_____40.78%
Sonic the Hedgehog__42,255.9_____40.76%
Mario______________36,796.0_____37.47%
Crono______________36,717.4_____37.42%
Cloud Strife_________36,639.2_____37.37%
Solid Snake________32,648.3_____34.71%
Ryu_______________30,813.8_____33.41%
Tidus______________29,572.3_____32.50%

By comparing the round that, according to the ranings, the characters should've advanced to with the round they actually advanced to, I've made a list of the Most Lucky and Most Unlucky entrants from last year. The Expected round they should've advanced too was just calculated based on their ranking; for instance, the bottom 32 were expected to lose in round 1, the next 16 lowest were expected to lose in round 2, and so on; the top 2 were expected to advance to the finals, round 6.

Most Lucky 2003 Entrants
Donkey Kong
Mario
Scorpion

Most Unlucky 2003 Entrants
Claire Redfield
Ken
Mega Man

The Lucky entrants each advanced 2 rounds beyond where they should have, and the Unlucky entrants each advanced 2 rounds less than where they should have.

From: creativename | Posted: 7/3/2003 12:23:55 AM | Message Detail

Ahh, the triumph of Science.

I was very surprised to hear numerous people keep saying how Tidus did very poorly last year, when in fact he was merely unlucky. He actually had quite the solid showing overall, with a value score of 29572.3. Seems people greatly underestimated his popularity. My math, however, did not (I take this as a positive sign).

So people are very surprised that this is very close, but I expected it to be. It would take someone of Sonic level or above to blow Tidus out, and Ganon is just not at that level.

Now, people are going to say that this close contest bodes poorly for Ganon against Magus, if Ganon does indeed defeat Tidus--however, that will again be poor logic. Tidus is quite popular, and so is Ganon. I expect Magus to defeat Ganon, but it shall not be lop-sided.

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/3/2003 1:20:27 AM | Message Detail

Hmm, not a lot of stat work for me to do just yet. CJayC isn't providing the information I need to calculate prediction percentages yet and you can't really have a Top 10 list of any sort with only two completed matches. :) Oh well, things will pick up in the second round (and then some).

I did a bit of work on the website, updating the sections I could. Still not much to see there. Although I added a new section for Jjukil's poll stats (posted by him above). I expect I'll change the formatting for it a bit, but for now it's simply there for everyone to see. Thanks, Jjukil.

Not much else to say. I sure hope the odds will be posted soon...
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/3/2003 1:30:33 AM | Message Detail

Damn, I thought I could come back from work, look at the poll results, see Ganondorf leading by a few thousands and go to sleep, but it's way closer than I thought it would be...

Am I the only one who expected a 60/40 or 65/35 win by Ganondorf or have we all underestimated Tidus?
---
"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
Current Points: 2/2

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/3/2003 1:38:10 AM | Message Detail

I predicted that Ganondorf would score a "narrow victory". But I expected narrow not slim (or slim to none). Tidus is starting to scare me. This is by no means over.
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/3/2003 1:47:31 AM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/3/2003 1:48:42 AM | Message Detail

Heh. Remember that "morning vote" I was mentioning earlier? And how it can only really make a difference in the close matches?

This could be one of those matches. *grins*

Granted, I have no idea which side the "morning vote" will favor. But in a match with a 600 vote gap, it could definitely turn the tide, one way or the other.

I'll put up the Fox/Pikachu poll stats in a little while; busy doing the full results for Terran's tourney.
---
http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
GCBNN: Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update: 7-3-03)

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/3/2003 11:28:36 AM | Message Detail

There' not a whole lot to say that hasn't been said already, but I'll try.

Match #1 - Review

A huge win. Link is clearly back and better than ever. Any anti-votes were rendered meaningless - 90 000 votes, I can't believe it! Over 100 000 votes cast is astounding too, will we see those numbers throughout the contest? If there were any doubts, they're gone now, Link's title of champion is almost guaranteed again.

Match #2 - Review

Slightly more interesting, Fox exerts a clear victory over Pikachu. Quite a few posters on the board seemed to be shocked that Pikachu lost. Fox did alright, although he doesn't strike me as a very strong character; I'd say most of his votes came from Pokemon/Pikachu haters. Fox will lose to Link next round, hopefully he'll be able to do better than Aiai. Another impressive voting turnout - almost 100 000 again.

Match #3 - Current

Yikes, I had no idea this would have been so close, I guess many of us did underestimate Tidus. About an hour ago, Tidus had caught up slightly - to a gap of about 300 votes. The gap now stands at about 500. It looks like the morning vote has helped Tidus slightly. Why that is I couldn't say. Yesterday Fox's lead over Pikachu only seemed to increase in the morning, so make of that what you will. This is the first match where the board (almost) got wrong. Most assumed Ganon would advance easily. Ringworm's betting topic had users betting on Ganon almost exclusivly. That being said, neither of these contestants have shown the strength to possibly beat Magus next round.

Match #4 - Preview

Speaking of Magus, most predict he'll easily take Sam, and I would agree. Magus shouldn't have too much trouble at all with this matchup.

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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 2-0 / 2 points won / 0 points lost

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/3/2003 2:57:57 PM | Message Detail

Well, we shouldn't really be counting on Magus to slaughter Ganondorf yet, since we haven't seen him in action.
But I certainly hope he can do better than Tidus did. =P And it won't take much to put him over the top.

Pika/Fox Times And Changes:

Polls Open: From 7-1-03 at 11:48 PM to 7-2-03 at 11:51 PM

Vote Totals: 67856 (Fox) to 30962 (Pikachu)
Percentages: 68.67% to 31.33%
Margin: 37.34%

Polls Locked to 15-minute Updates: 7-2-03 @ 12:30 AM
Results At That Time: 2039 to 4087--33.28% to 66.72%
Differential: 1.95%

(The Accuracy Rating thing from last time is bogus. All I did was divide Link's percentage when the polls opened by his final percentage. Now do the same for AiAi's numbers. =P The new Differential--the difference between the two--gets the same point across, but has the added benefit of actually being accurate.)
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GCBNN: Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update: 7-3-03)

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 7/3/2003 4:03:37 PM | Message Detail

I just realized that Fox McCloud now holds number 3 in the highest number of votes for one match over this year and last as of now. He got more votes than anybody last year except Link over Scorpion!
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Summer Contest 2003: 1 out of 1 points- Co-Leader

From: Muljo Stpho | Posted: 7/3/2003 4:25:56 PM | Message Detail

*tracking post*
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From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/3/2003 4:28:33 PM | Message Detail

Match #2 - Review

Not much to say. A detailed analysis of the outcome would be nearly meaningless, since the two characters were only fighting for the right to lose to Link next round anyway. Also, since there are no other Pokémon or Star Fox characters in the tournament, we can't really get any insight for future matches out of this result. It shouldn't be surprising that Fox won, although the size of the victory was greater than I'd expected. The only question now is how dignified can Fox look in next round's defeat?

Match #3 - Current

This match is a lot closer than I'd expected it to be. At the moment it looks like Ganondorf has it, since it would take a major comeback (over 1,500 votes) for Tidus to win. Still, this match could end up even closer by the time the poll closes. If last year's results are any indicator, this could be the closest match of the first round.

Match #4 - Preview

Sam Fisher and Magus are both new competitors in the contest this year, so their chances are hard to gauge. Sam is the generic star of a recently popular stealth/action game, and Magus is a highly memorable character from an old 16-bit RPG. That's about as disparate as you can get. Still, this one should be easy to judge. RPG characters do very well in this contest, and Chrono Trigger has a huge following on GameFAQs (as Crono proved last year). Whereas fairly generic human characters, even in the starring role, tend not to get much support (see Gordon Freeman and Max Payne, but note the exception of Solid Snake). In the end, it seems clear that Magus will take this one easily. His margin of victory will probably be notably higher than Fox's.
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/3/2003 6:13:34 PM | Message Detail

I wish I could see my posting history so I could find this topic faster. Oh well, still one week to go!

Match #3 Review

It's not over, but we can assume Ganondorf won. Or can we? Samus came back from that kind of margin against Sonic. Weird, we didn't hear the word "cheating" much. Not close enough, I guess, more like DK vs. Aya. Tidus does much better than most anticipated, because we didn't gauge his popularity correctly as related to last year's performance. He did, in fact, extremely well against Sonic, one of the biggest contenders for the hectic West of 2002. That combined with the fact that Nintendo fans don't back their villains nearly as much as their heroes make for a repeat of the match that took place exactly 11 months ago today. But might I add, I keep my perfect bracket. But, despite this, it makes some future matches scare the heck out of me.

-Squall vs. Jill: Picking Jill, what was I smoking? Looks like no matter how hated a FF character is, he will always get a lot of support no matter what. But... the underestimated Tidus beat Claire by little last year. This alone says how popular RE is. So... maybe I wasn't smoking something strong after all.

-Knuckles vs. Yuna: If Yuna > Tidus as suggested, then Knuckles is toast. I only had Auron advancing to R2 in the FF10 crew.

-Bowser vs. Ness: Nintendo fans, as stated earlier, don't back their villains. I have Bowser advancing, but Ness could prevent it from happening.

Match #4 Preview

A breather, even though Fisher seems quite popular. Now, with today's results, doubters can shut up: if Magus wins this one, he gets a bye to the division semis.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 2/2 . . . . . T-1 (?-way) . . . . . 0 lost
Today's pick: Ganondorf

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/4/2003 1:13:32 AM | Message Detail

Replies to some of the posts above:

ardonite, Rodri316, ncrdrg, Bananaquest, dimeat, DebonairBassman, zerolaw, Who Cares?, Cecil XIX, MMXcalibur, King Morgoth, Seanchan - Thanks for the kind words and the continued support. I recognize a lot of you from last year, and things just wouldn't have been the same without your contributions.

Team Rocket Elite - Nice comparison. It's interesting to see how close the voting totals of the first match were to last year's finals. It looks like the popularity of the polls carried directly over from that match.

Samberdog - Maybe we've underestimated the so-called "anti-vote"? Perhaps it could be as meaningless as TJF and revenge voting? Who knows. I certainly expected more joke votes and anti-votes for Link. I was thinking something on the order of the 25% Servbot got against Mario last year. So much for that. :)

Slowflake - First, a question: Will you have stats to compare the number of votes between the matches of the same date for both contests?

Maybe, but probably nothing formal. If there's something particularly notable I'll probably mention it in a post, sort of like those little "bonus stat" items that I threw in occasionally last year. Of course, with the hugely inflated vote totals this year, much of the potential comparison may be meaningless. So we'll see.

Secondly... records and milestones set by Link vs. AiAi.

Cool points. At this rate, every match this year will break records from last year. :) That'll make it harder to compare the two contests.

Ringworm - If you need any help figuring out the stats, I can probably set up a spreadsheet that would work out the stats reasonably quickly. I guess that's how you did it last year though, and probably will this year.

For the first couple of rounds or so I actually used a calculator. Once that became a ridiculous waste of time (which actually happened rather quickly) I switched to using a spreadsheet. It was set up so that I could just copy and paste each night's numbers and it would output the totals for me. Saved me a heap of time and effort. :) I've still got the spreadsheet from last year, so I should be good for this year as well. Thanks for the offer though.

cyko - (and kudos to ncrdrg for reposting last years stat topic on the board again this year, though its gotta be lost by now.)

Yes, kudos to ncrdrg. And his topic is actually still around, amazingly enough. You can find it here:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=5959638

creativename - This is probably the best place to post the analysis I did on last year's results. I used a very simple recursive formula to rank each character in the tournament last year, working backwards from the Link-Mario final.

Very cool stuff. I think Haste2 did a similar analysis last year (but without quite as much detail - I like the lucky and unlucky lists). Check ncrdrg's rebirth topic (the link is above). Everyone should also check out King Morgoth's character rankings chart (which, to my shame, I still haven't gotten around to putting on the stats site):
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/summercontest/characters.html

red sox 777 - I just realized that Fox McCloud now holds number 3 in the highest number of votes for one match over this year and last as of now. He got more votes than anybody last year except Link over Scorpion!

Wow, that is amazing. I guess that gives us a good idea of just how popular the contest is going to be this year. Anyone else badly want to change their tiebreaker number? ;)

Jjukil - Nice work with the poll stats (and your awesome website). I suppose you intend to keep that up for the entire contest? My hat is off to you merely for the attempt. :)

NeoElfboy - Where are you? You were around during the nominations period. Hurry up and come back.
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: NT220 | Posted: 7/4/2003 1:20:33 AM | Message Detail

Nintendo fans don't back their villains nearly as much as their heroes make for a repeat of the match that took place exactly 11 months ago today.

An interesting point. Makes me feel a lot better about picking Yoshi over Bowser.

I don't really think Ness has the power to take down the turtle, though. EarthBound's fanbase has always struck me as an extremely vocal but comparatively small group, and it has its fair share of haters. Lack of public exposure (except in the SSB games) is probably going to kill him in this match against one of the most well-known villains of all time.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: Kirby Driver | Posted: 7/4/2003 7:48:11 AM | Message Detail

Bumpin' for Solar.
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From: cyko | Posted: 7/4/2003 8:34:24 AM | Message Detail

well, here is my input for the rest of the north division. things will be relatively uninteresting compared to that Tidus/Ganondorf match last night. *whew* Magus, Luigi, KOS-MOS, and Samus will all dispense of their competitors with ease. i believe that each of them will get at least twice as many votes as their respective losers. (Magus currently has 67.2% of the votes in his match right now, about twice as many as Sam.)

however, Squall vs. Jill Valentine will prove to be a close match; not as close as Tidus vs. Ganondorf, but still close. Squall seems to have picked up a little support since his appearance in kingdom hearts (or at least the anti-squall hatred is down a little), putting him on about the same level as Tidus (as a whiny final fantasy hero). but you can't underestimate Jill. she was able to dispense of both Kirby and the unimpressive Bomberman last year, but she hasn't really done much in the past year to gain more support. the amount of votes she gets, though, might depend on the amount of cleavage in her picture. but, i find it hard to believe that Jill could beat Ganondorf, so if Tidus could almost beat Ganondorf, then Squall should be able to take Jill, albeit not by much.

btw to solarshadow- i think it's awesome how you acknowledge and thank pretty much everyone who says something intelligent in your topics. very honorable.

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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
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From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/4/2003 3:15:40 PM | Message Detail

Match #3 - Review

Huzzah! The results are finally up! Tidus and Ganon battled out in what is the closest and most popular poll yet this year. Predictably, Gannondorf won, though it was much closer than most anticipated. Tidus did quite well, either his popularity has gained or we underestimated his performance against Sonic (maybe 40% isn't too bad after all). Ganon's less than decisive victory shouldn't be too much for Magus to conquer next round.

Match #4 - Current

No big surprise. After a fun couple of minutes in the beginning things have calmed down and Magus is easily out pacing Sam, though perhaps not as much as some predicted. Hopefully Crono will be able to do significantly better than this. I still think Magus will be able to beat Ganon in round two, however.

Match #5 - Preview

I'm sure I'm not the only one who's a lot more unsure of this match now than they were before the contest started. I, like many, chose Jill, but the board now seems to be leaning towards Squall, and after Tidus's strong performance Jill may just end up getting the boot. Hopefully that won't be the case though. I want to hold onto my perfect bracket for as long as possible.

I hope CJayC gets around to posting user results, and odds, and all that fun stuff soon.

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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 3-0 / 3 points won / 0 points lost

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/4/2003 5:50:01 PM | Message Detail

6 more days before level 25 and my posting history! Sad to see Solar's topic gets such few love this year. It might change with the first stats though.

Before going to the review/preview, a reply to a reply to my review of match #3.

An interesting point. Makes me feel a lot better about picking Yoshi over Bowser.

Well... Bowser is far more known than Ganondorf. Why? The Zelda games are really more about the gameplay and adventuring, while SMB is more about kicking Bowser's cronies' ass. So Bowser is a much more integral part of SMB than Ganondorf, of Zelda, even though you fight against them in both series. But I still think Yoshi will win, because he just has an "it" that Bowser doesn't have.

Now, on to the review/preview!

Match #4 Review

I'll be doing this from two points of view: Fisher's and Magus'.

Sam Fisher: Well done, Sam. You went against a juggernaut and did better than most expected. Too bad the government is going to deny your existence. Going by this board at least, Fisher had quite the fanbase, a bit like Dante. Actually, he is doing against Magus almost exactly what Dante did against Crono. And I guess Splinter Cell > DMC, since I actually heard of it. Not that it means anything, but I think it's true. And apparently, in both cases, you have to know the character once you played it, unlike a certain Gordon Freeman. Splinter Cell going multi-platform didn't hinder Sam either.

Magus: With all the factors mentioned above, Magus > Crono certainly holds true. But, if Magus was really on par with Sephiroth like I and a few others expected, he would do a bit better than that. And considered the quality of his opponent, it would have taken him around 75% to be considered a challenge to Link in my eyes. And since he isn't... he'll fall against the champ. Good job nonetheless, you'll easily cruise past Ganondorf. Hey, Tidus almost beat him!

Match 5 Preview

The Reaper is a step behind me on this one, and the toll he'll probably make me pay is sky-high... my perfect bracket. Darn it, it was good while it lasted. BUT, there is still some hope. Tidus, who we now know was underestimated the whole time, had some trouble against Claire Redfield. Now, common sense dictates Jill > Claire, and Tidus probably > Squall. OMG, my brother is playing Metroid Prime, which is in my room, from HIS room. WTF is he trying to do. Anyway, what I was saying is, it might be a tight one. And if I get away with it, the road is totally clear until Bowser vs. Ness.

Bonus Paragraph: Why I think Ncr's hypothesis is untrue

This hypothesis, if you don't know, is "Square reinforcements" as compared to last year. Last year, at least early on, matches with big Square characters had unbelievable vote turnouts (Cloud anyone?). However, while yesterday's was 116k, higher than the first two matches, it was more because it was a close match than anything, and logic dictates it would happen. Today a Square juggernaut is up against a fairly popular character, and we probably won't break 110k. I think yesterday's no-brainer-turned-coin-toss happened because of the factors mentioned in this post as well as my last one.

Over and out.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 3/3 . . . . . T-1 (?-way) . . . . . 0 lost
Today's pick: Magus

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