| FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest
(Updated Nightly) |
| | Page 7 of 9 | | |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 4:39:27 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some brief Samus vs. Sephiroth
analysis.
Another number 5 seed cut down in her prime. It was
a good run for Samus and she took down some higher seeds and
incredibly worthy opponents, but in the end she couldn't quite
compare to Sephiroth (although it was surprisingly close). She
opened a few eyes when she started with an early lead, but Sephiroth
recovered and then pulled away, leaving the rest of the match as a
real snoozer.
Samus finishes up with a modest average of 55%
of the vote over her 4 matches, but she will remain notable for
having the smallest margin of victory out of any battle (34 votes
over Sonic). Her vote count for each match remained steady at around
40000, with only a slight jump in her last match to 46000. She did
well throughout the tournament, but only her narrow win against
Sonic really stands out. Of course, she's now 4th on the Top 10 Most
Impressive Losers list, but with nearly 20000 fewer votes than 1st
place Cloud, we've definitely seen more impressive last stands.
:)
After huge blowouts in his first 2 matches (80+%),
Sephiroth has been involved in 2 extremely close battles (#3 and #6
on the Top 10 Closest Matches list). Still, he managed to beat 2
gaming icons in Mega Man and Samus, so that's no small feat. He
broke 50000 votes for the 3rd time, and he's been above 60000 once
(in the first round actually, which potentially makes it more
impressive). However, after his last 2 narrow victories he'll have
his hands full next round with Link. They have identical odds, but
the edge definitely is with Link. Should be interesting.
At
97224 total votes, this was the 4th most popular poll. In fact, all
4 of the fourth round matches are in the top 5, which says something
about the growing interest in these later matches. Let's hope these
higher numbers continue (which of course they will).
This was
another hard match to predict, with only 38.3% of contest entrants
getting it right (good for 8th on the list). Expectedly difficult
but not particularly notable considering how hard all of these final
matches have become to predict. The prediction percentages for
future matches should be similarly low, but probably won't set any
new records (unless Crono wins again, of course).
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Pokemaniac
Will | Posted: 8/31/2002 5:19:07 PM | Message
Detail
|
Wow, you're commited to this, SS. Nice job here.
Would you mind if I made a topic about the Crono vs Sephiroth third
place poll? It would probably attract mroe
people.
---
Picks For The Future Battles
Link |
| From: Gunblade
| Posted: 8/31/2002 6:26:28 PM | Message
Detail
|
Well, looks like that Seph's had his day
now.
Hmmm...it looks like that Link might even beat Mario. I
can probably safely say that Seph isn't really less popular than
Crono or Cloud, but look at how big the vote gap between Seph and
Link is right now. Mario never had such an easy time.
Or it
could be Seph's awful picture. =p
Any way, here's a little
amusing pic I made for tonight.
=)
http://www.geocities.com/chaosreturner/MarioVsLink.jpg
---
Good,
evil, what's the difference? Not that I care.
Gunblade,
Defender of all games. |
| From: Pokemaniac
Will | Posted: 8/31/2002 7:52:52 PM | Message
Detail
|
I like that pic, Gunblade! It shows their
original forms overall. I think that CJayC should use a pic like
that for the last match, with their NES pictures. Maybe you should
E-mail him about it.
---
Picks For The Future
Battles
Link |
| From: Dark
Mario Sephiroth | Posted: 8/31/2002 8:05:46 PM | Message
Detail
|
i have a couple things to say first what does it
mean when it says u need karma on your account?
now to the point
Sephiroth Vs Link Well i like them both they are both in my top 5
but i like Sephiroth more but we all know he is gonna lose Link will
kill mario sadly i like links games more but Mario is Mr. Video
Game. heres why i think link will win.
first Sephiroth is just as
popular if not more popular than chrono or Cloud but Chrono and
cloud came close to mario while like its beating Sephiroth by more
that 10%
By the way good work on this poll u are really
devoted to this
---
Its your life you choose you alone choose
the path you take and our destiny. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 8:25:23 PM | Message
Detail
|
Pokemaniac Will: Sure. I was going to make a
topic like that myself a little later on, but you're certainly
welcome to. The more exposure, the better. :)
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 8:50:30 PM | Message
Detail
|
-FOURTH ROUND WRAP UP-
Just going to make
this quick, since it was such a short round.
One of the major
things that changed this round was the number of people voting in
the polls. The average went from 77816 last round to an amazing
104419 this round (even though only 1 actually broke the 100000
mark). As the battles have gotten more intense a lot more people
have started taking an interest. It will be interesting to see if
the final 3 matches can keep up the pace.
The second major
change is the average win margin. Winning characters ended up being
an average of only 15.9% ahead of their opponents. Which is actually
a bit misleading. Link's 52% margin of victory threw things off
considerably, because if we discard his match the average for the
rest is a mere 3.8%. But no matter how you look at it, the battles
were a lot closer this round than the 27.6% average margin of last
round.
The average prediction rate dropped by only about 10%,
down to 38.6% (which is really not that bad). So the average number
of points earned by contestants this round (out of 32) was 12.34.
Less than half, for the first time. If you're playing along at home,
you now need more than 72.03 points to be in the majority.
As
expected, the biggest match of the round was the epic Mario vs.
Cloud battle. The match really could have gone either way, with
Mario winning by only 50.1%. Crono's upset victory over Snake was
managed with 53% of the vote, as was Sephiroth's expected win over
Samus. The only match that wasn't a nail-biter was Link's 76%
pasting of Scorpion.
Bonus stat: The total number of votes
cast this round was 417,676, for a grand total of 3,944,706 (nearly
4 million!) votes so far this contest. Wow.
-FIFTH ROUND
PREVIEW-
Well, with the fifth round almost over already
there's no point in doing an indepth preview. So I'll just give you
the usual numbers showing the characters' seeding, odds, and the
percentage of contest entrants that chose them to win their previous
match.
1 - Mario (6:1) - 44.2%
5 - Crono (33:1) -
14.6%
2 - Link (9:1) - 57.0%
7 - Sephiroth (9:1) -
38.3%
Based on the odds alone it looks like Mario should win
fairly easily against Crono, and Link vs. Sephiroth should be an
amazingly close match. But in reality, I bet that ends up reversed.
;)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 9:44:18 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Mario vs. Crono
analysis.
Well, another amazing match featuring Mario. Even
though Crono was supposed to be an easier opponent, this one turned
out to be even closer than his battle with Cloud, and almost as
exciting. The finish was certainly just as spectacular. The lead
kept swapping hands with every update, and again it came down to the
very last minute before a winner was determined. It really could
have gone either way, but in the end Mario was the
winner.
This was another incredibly popular match, with a
total of 107547 votes cast in the poll. This is only the 2nd time a
poll has broken the 100000 mark, and it ranks behind only the
Mario/Cloud total on the Top 10 Most Popular Polls list. I wonder if
it's just the drama of the Nintendo vs. Square battles that brings
out this many voters, or if an all-Nintendo final could match it.
Maybe we'll see...
Crono's run is the undisputed Cinderella
story of the tournament. And although it didn't have a fairy tale
ending, Crono and his fans have nothing to be ashamed about. Every
battle for Crono was against a big-name character. He first had to
get through Simon Belmont, Dante, Lara Croft, and Solid Snake, and
he certainly wasn't expected to clobber them by as much as he did.
It took the tournament favorite, Mario, to end his glorious run, and
even then it was almost unimaginably close. Crono ends up with an
average vote take of 63%, which will likely be one of the highest of
the tournament. His vote count was also impressive, averaging just
over 50000 votes per match. A very impressive run
indeed.
Mario, on the other hand, continues to look strong.
His mediocre opening rounds are all but forgotten (and certainly
forgiven) now that he's found his way to the final. As the character
with the best odds coming into the tournament it shouldn't be much
of a surprise to see him make it this far, although he did have a
bit of a rough time and came very close to losing his last 2
matches. Even so, he broke 50000 votes for the 3rd time, and still
holds the record for the highest vote total from his previous match.
So while his percentages have been really close, at least his vote
count is improving. Of course, all that really matters now is how he
performs in the final. He'll be facing Link, Nintendo's #2 mascot.
He's still the favorite by odds and by recognition, but does he have
what it takes to defeat Link when it comes right down to it? Link
has been dominant in his victories thus far and shows no signs of
slowing down. It should make for an amazing clash of the Nintendo
icons.
The prediction percentage for this match was a
respectable 31.0%. Since 44.2% had Mario winning last round, only
13% expected him to lose in the semi-final. And I'd say most of
those picked Snake to beat him, since only 14.6% of the entrants
even had Crono getting this far. It looks like the prediction
percentage for the final could be in the 20-25% range if Mario wins.
One quarter of the entrants picking the winner correctly? That would
be pretty darn good.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 11:07:21 PM | Message
Detail
|
Bonus stat:
Combined Vote Counts For
Fourth Round Participants (losers in italics)
Link -
244976
Cloud Strife - 231069
Sephiroth - 215672
Mario - 201207
Crono - 198227
Solid Snake -
177474
Samus Aran - 168170
Scorpion -
143028
Link's still in the lead and Mario moved ahead of
Crono. Not much else changed. Scorpion has a pretty sad total, but
Samus' isn't all that impressive either.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/31/2002 11:23:52 PM | Message
Detail
|
After seeing the pic for the finals I just can't
wait for it to begin! I don't think there are many characters with
which CJayC could have done that sort of pic and I like it!
Now
if only the poll could stay within the 51/49 all day it would be a
perfect ending to this tournament!
Keep up the good work
Solar! One more day and everything will be over....makes me sad to
think that I probably won't hear about you guys anymore after
tomorrow :/
---
"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all
those who wander are lost" |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 12:03:43 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
2 - Link (9:1)
- 58273 / 56.65% (102870) - 5135 / 30.6%
7 -
Sephiroth (9:1) - 44597 / 43.35% (102870)
Updated
Lists:
Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote
totals)
1) (iv) Mario vs. Cloud Strife - 129703
2)
(v) Mario vs. Crono - 107547
3) (v) Link vs. Sephiroth -
102870
4) (iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake - 99214
5)
(iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357
6) (iv) Samus Aran
vs. Sephiroth - 97224
7) (iv) Scorpion vs. Link -
91535
8) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link -
85273
9) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran -
83912
10) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371
Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters
1)
(iv) Link - 69544
2) (iv) Mario - 64990
3) (iv)
Cloud Strife - 64713
4) Mega Man - 63039
5)
(iii) Link - 61931
6) Sephiroth - 61367
7) (ii)
Mega Man - 60914
8) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
9)
Link - 59509
10) (v) Link - 58273
Top
10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)
1) (iv) Cloud Strife
- 64713
2) (v) Crono - 53716
3) (iii) Mega Man -
48185
4) (iv) Solid Snake - 46697
5) (iv) Samus
Aran - 46047
6) (v) Sephiroth - 44597
7) (iii)
Sonic the Hedgehog - 41939
8) Kirby - 32837
9)
(iii) Aeris - 32702
10) (ii) Aya Brea -
30478
Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
(based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the
winner)
1) (iv) Crono 14.6% vs. Solid Snake
2)
(iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3%
3) (ii) Alucard
28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
4) (v) Link 30.6% vs.
Sephiroth
5) (v) Mario 31.0% vs. Crono
6) (iii) Sonic
the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran 31.8%
7) (ii) Bomberman vs.
Jill Valentine 32.5%
8) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono
33.1%
9) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
10) (iv)
Samus Aran vs. Sephiroth 38.3%
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: plague444
| Posted: 9/1/2002 12:08:12 AM | Message
Detail
|
just posting on whatever to get karma
today!
---
"But be forewarned, 3 hams will certainly kill him,
3 hams."
-Thundercleese(The Brak Show) |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 9/1/2002 12:26:10 AM | Message
Detail
|
I don't know if you want or need these but one
of my friends helped my making a detailed report of the
Link-Sephiroth match between 13:00 and the end of the poll (CST). We
also made an excel sheet with a few graphs that you could (maybe,
who knows) find interesting.
Anyways, we'll try to do the
same thing tonight but we'll begin right now and try to get all the
results for all the night, please tell me if you're interested in
such a
report.
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/LinkSephiroth.txt
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/LinkSephiroth.xls
(I
don't know what's going on with geocities but I've had a few
problems trying to download the excel sheet so save everything on
your computer before you try to download it, just in
case....)
---
"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all
those who wander are lost" |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 9/1/2002 12:29:54 AM | Message
Detail
|
*shakes his head* Link really has become the
Simpsons of this tournament. (Just in case anyone else here followed
the Cartoon/Anime tourney.) I'm glad Mario recovered from his
original 33% gap, but so far he doesn't look like much more of a
threat than Sephiroth to me.
(This, naturally, means that he
will win. I mean, look who's talking, here.
;)
---
http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
The Great
Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back (Latest Update: 9-1-02) |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 9/1/2002 12:32:39 AM | Message
Detail
|
Well. It does look like it's over. Link has just
increased his lead, although I guess we can't count Mario out
completely yet. Too bad it couldn't be closer though, it would be
great if the the winner won by only one or two
votes.
---
I've been SHINE GOTTEN !!
Shine
Count: 33 |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 1:15:58 AM | Message
Detail
|
*wipes sweat from brow*
Okay, the website
is fully updated (all except for the contest averages, at least).
Nothing much to say about that except don't forget to vote in the
third place poll while you're there. Oh, and if you're bored go bump
this topic:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4147314
;)
King Morgoth: I'm very interested in such a report.
Definitely. Isn't it obvious by now how happy numbers make me? :)
I'll take a look at the Link/Sephiroth stuff right
away.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 2:05:42 AM | Message
Detail
|
Alright, now the website is fully
updated, contest averages included. Which I will post part of
below:
Average Number of Votes Received By The Winning
Character
First Round Avg - 41682 - 69.2%
Second
Round Avg - 43440 - 67.6%
Third Round Avg - 48971 - 62.9%
Fourth Round Avg - 59557 - 57.0%
Fifth Round Avg - 56052 -
53.3%
Average Number of Votes Received By The Losing
Character
First Round Avg - 18590 - 30.8%
Second
Round Avg - 20852 - 32.4%
Third Round Avg - 28845 - 37.1%
Fourth Round Avg - 44862 - 43.0%
Fifth Round Avg - 49157 -
46.7%
Average Number of Total Votes Per Match
First Round Avg - 60272
Second Round Avg - 64292
Third Round Avg - 77816
Fourth Round Avg - 104419
Fifth
Round Avg - 105209
Average Win Margin
First Round Avg - 23092 - 38.3%
Second Round Avg - 22588
- 35.2%
Third Round Avg - 20126 - 27.6%
Fourth Round Avg -
14695 - 15.9%
Fifth Round Avg - 6895 - 6.6%
Average Number of Contest Entrants Predicting Each
Match Correctly (out of 16764 total entrants)
First
Round Avg - 12440 - 74.2%
Second Round Avg - 10446 - 62.3%
Third Round Avg - 8391 - 50.1%
Fourth Round Avg - 6463 -
38.6%
Fifth Round Avg - 5163 - 30.8%
Average
Number of Points Earned by Contest Entrants (out of 32 possible
points per round)
First Round - 23.74
Second Round -
19.94
Third Round - 16.01
Fourth Round - 12.34
Fifth
Round - 9.85
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 9/1/2002 2:16:14 AM | Message
Detail
|
It's 3:00 here and I'm going to sleep soon, so I
have a special request for anyone who is awake and reads
this.
Could you please write the results of each (or as many as
you can) poll update (with the time and the votes for each
character, % are not needed), which mean each 15 minutes or so, and
send them to vin100_h@hotmail.com.
It would be really appreciated
by myself and Solar's love of numbers and statistics ;)
I'll be
back here at around Noon EST (11:00 GameFAQs time) so I don't need
any results past that time.
Thanks in advance to anyone who'll
help!
Oh and btw, you can help too Solar, if you have time
for that of course ;)
---
"Everything gold does not
glitter
Not all those who wander are lost" |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 9/1/2002 2:17:37 AM | Message
Detail
|
Also, the winner will be
RedPin if
Mario wins
or
Burney or Fat Morton Jellyroll if
Link wins (depending on tiebreaker for this one.)
At the
minute, it looks like Link will take the win by about
15%.
Great job yet again, this topic is one of the main
reasons I'm still interested in the competition. I did pathetic,
78pts. This will probably be about the average though (haven't
worked it out yet).
---
Everyone that says "There's no such
thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this
board. |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 9/1/2002 2:20:22 AM | Message
Detail
|
Um, I won't be around myself, but right now
its:
Mario 42.48% 7360
Link 57.52% 9964
This is
the 2:15AM votes anyway.
---
Everyone that says "There's
no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited
this board. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 2:49:38 AM | Message
Detail
|
I'm just about to leave for the night, but I can
give you 2 more. You might consider starting your own topic about
this and getting as many people as possible to
contribute.
2:30AM
Mario 42.32% 7667
Link 57.68%
10451
TOTAL VOTES 18118
2:45AM
Mario 42.17% 7962
Link 57.83% 10920
TOTAL VOTES 18882
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Stats
Discussion:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3916637 |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 3:11:35 AM | Message
Detail
|
I made a topic for you here:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4151234
Not
sure if it will work, but it was worth a try.
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Stats
Discussion:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3916637 |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 9/1/2002 10:59:17 AM | Message
Detail
|
The other topic worked perfectly Solar! I have
ALL stats since the begining of the poll, and it's all because of
you and everyone else who helped!
Thanks
again!
---
"Everything gold does not glitter
Not all those
who wander are lost" |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 11:43:58 AM | Message
Detail
|
Holy crap, I can't believe that actually worked!
=)
Well, I'm very pleased. Your other graphs were very cool,
so I can't wait to see the new ones for this
match.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 9/1/2002 11:52:03 AM | Message
Detail
|
Awesome. I'm (pleasantly) surprised enough
people were up for it. =)
Well, today won't be seeing much
analysis or updating from me--I'll be out all day. Sorry about
that.
When I get back, I won't have much time to go over anything
on the board before the end of the day. I'd appreciate it if someone
would post a note in this topic if something huge happens here
(particularly any comments from CJayC on when this place will
close).
Of course, one was bound to pop up anyway, but I just
wanted to make sure. =)
And for anyone that's not planning on
checking in here again--it's been a great time here, all.
Thanks.
---
http://members.aol.com/Jjukil
The Great
Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back (Latest Update: 9-1-02) |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 12:36:12 PM | Message
Detail
|
Road to the Final Four:
1 - Mario
(6:1) - 74.11% vs. 16 - Servbot (750:1) - 25.89% -
95.9%
1 - Mario (6:1) - 66.81% vs. 9 -
Morrigan (225:1) - 33.19% - 81.7%
1 - Mario
(6:1) - 81.98% vs. 4 - Donkey Kong (140:1) - 18.02% -
72.5%
1 - Mario (6:1) - 50.11% vs. 2 - Cloud
Strife (14:1) - 49.89% - 44.2%
5 - Crono
(33:1) - 76.78% vs. 12 - Simon (500:1) - 23.22% -
76.4%
5 - Crono (33:1) - 66.58% vs. 4 -
Dante (36:1) - 33.42% - 51.8%
5 - Crono
(33:1) - 70.87% vs. 1 - Lara Croft (50:1) - 29.13% -
33.1%
5 - Crono (33:1) - 52.93% vs. 2 - Solid Snake
(8:1) - 47.07% - 14.6%
2 - Link
(9:1) - 84.31% vs. 15 - Little Mac (750:1) - 15.69% -
96.4%
2 - Link (9:1) - 75.77% vs. 7 -
Strider Hiryu (250:1) - 24.23% - 80.5%
2 - Link
(9:1) - 72.63% vs. 3 - Jill Valentine (180:1) - 27.37% -
69.0%
2 - Link (9:1) - 75.98% vs. 5 -
Scorpion (150:1) - 24.02% - 57.0%
7 - Sephiroth
(9:1) - 87.71% vs. 10 - Gabe (1000:1) - 12.29% -
90.2%
7 - Sephiroth (9:1) - 81.52% vs. 2 -
Crash (250:1) - 18.48% - 77.0%
7 - Sephiroth
(9:1) - 50.51% vs. 6 - Mega Man (45:1) - 49.49% -
55.7%
7 - Sephiroth (9:1) - 52.64% vs. 5 -
Samus (36:1) - 47.36% - 38.3%
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: dimeat
| Posted: 9/1/2002 2:25:12 PM | Message
Detail
|
With Sephiroth losing, my bracket was gone but I
was hoping to at least get to the top50 with Mario winning, but
that's not going to happen.
I finished with 128 points. Not
bad.
Highest rank gotten during the tourney - 9th |
| From: Bananaquest
| Posted: 9/1/2002 2:56:13 PM | Message
Detail
|
> Road to the Final Four
Sounds like
NCAA Basketball on CBS to me! Great job with the nightly updates,
solarshadow. Probably one of the few hard working people I've ever
met at this board.
---
Bananaquest: "There is life after
the Summer 2002 Contest. Right?"
Crono: "....." |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 3:24:24 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Link vs. Sephiroth
analysis.
So, another major Nintendo vs. Square battle has
come and gone. And once again the Nintendo icon is victorious (not
counting Seph/Samus). Only this time it wasn't actually that close
of a battle.
Well, it wasn't close by recent standards,
anyway. It was still the 14th closest battle of the tournament, but
with 13.30% and 13676 votes separating the characters, it was
nothing compared to the closest battles. The odds for this battle
were actually the closest of any, dead even at 9:1 for both, so it's
a bit disappointing that the match didn't live up to its close
billing. Link proved that although he had a fairly easy road to the
final four, he still more than deserved to be there and his large
blowouts in previous rounds were no fluke. He made short work of
Sephiroth and now proceeds to the final, where he will meet
Nintendo's other mighty mascot, Mario. It will be very interesting
to see which of these characters is more popular once and for all
(at least according to GameFAQs visitors). I'd say that Link has the
edge on a site like this, although Mario would probably prevail with
a more general voting population (or maybe not...).
Sephiroth
broke the 50000 mark 3 times and the 60000 mark once, and finished
with a respectable votes taken average of 63% (including his loss
and 2 other close battles). He is currently 6th on both the Top 10
Biggest Vote Getters and Top 10 Most Impressive Losers lists, so he
has certainly left his mark. And hey, making it to the final four is
not too shabby at all. ;)
Link continues to be impressive,
dispatching of another opponent with relative ease. While this marks
the first time he has had a vote percentage below 70%, there was
still never any real doubt that he would win this one. Link now
appears on the Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters list 4 times (and his 5th
total is at #12), and is the only character on there more than
twice. To say he has dominated in the votes department would almost
be an understatement. He is of course the only 5-time member of the
50000 vote club, and with a win over Mario he could become the only
3-time member of the 60000 vote club. He's in a league all his
own.
For only the 3rd time, the total number of votes cast
topped 100000 (both final four matches succeeded in reaching the
mark, as well as the Mario/Cloud bout). The 102870 votes cast in
this match makes it the 3rd highest of the tournament so far.
Cloud's matches used to dominate this category, but now he only has
2 on the list (1 down in 10th, about to be knocked off). Link and
Sephiroth both have 3 of their matches on the list now, Sephiroth's
being against strong opponents (Link, Mega Man, Samus) and Link's
being against a slightly less impressive roster (Sephiroth,
Scorpion, Jill).
This was the 4th hardest match to predict,
with only 30.6% of the entrants getting it right. That's only
slightly lower than the 31.0% who picked Mario to advance to the
final over Crono. So no matter who wins the final, it looks like
somewhere between 15-25% of the entrants will get it right, which is
actually a pretty good score.
Well, just one more battle and
everything will be complete. It's been a long road, but a winner
will be crowned soon.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 3:28:54 PM | Message
Detail
|
Sounds like NCAA Basketball on CBS to me!
Great job with the nightly updates, solarshadow. Probably one of the
few hard working people I've ever met at this board.
I
figured that since this tournament was modeled on the NCAA
basketball championships it would be an appropriate title for the
list. :)
And thanks for the kind comments. I definitely
appreciate it.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: MMXcalibur
| Posted: 9/1/2002 3:37:49 PM | Message
Detail
|
Damn straight you better appreciate all this
praise solarshadow! ;p
You've been the hardest working person
in video game contest entertainment:D
BTW, I called the Link
vs Mario match...I predicted 60-40 win for Link....just thought Id
be an ass and point it out :D
Anyway, I finished with 147
points (an accurate final and winner prediction helps)... what'd you
get solar????
---
(^>.<)-(
()============<D <(0_o'<) -KIRBY
X-BUSTER!
|
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 9/1/2002 4:03:51 PM | Message
Detail
|
I ended up with 117. I took a bit of a risk in
picking Mario over Sephiroth for my final, and it ended up hurting
me. I figured my only chance of winning a prize would be to have an
unusual final (I thought most people would pick either 2 Nintendo
characters or 2 Square characters, so I wanted a split), and if
Sephiroth had beaten Link and lost to Mario I still could have
placed as high as third. So it was a worthwhile risk but it just
didn't pay off (I underestimated Link too much). Oh well, maybe next
year. :)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Sir
Bormun | Posted: 9/1/2002 4:05:47 PM | Message
Detail
|
Solar, I have some links for you. Go to my Round
Robin.
---
One moderator to rule them all, one moderator to
find them, one moderator to bring them all, and in the darkness
delete them. |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 9/1/2002 4:15:57 PM | Message
Detail
|
Wow! I managed to beat Solar! ;)
I'll end up
with 121 pts, thanks to Link winning it all, and I'm REALLY happy
about my score.
Btw, those graphs are looking really good right
now. I've made one file with the Final and another one with combined
graphs of Link-Sephiroth and Link-Mario and I hope you'll like them
as much as I do ;)
---
"Everything gold does not
glitter
Not all those who wander are lost" |
| From: Poiuyt
| Posted: 9/1/2002 4:19:42 PM | Message
Detail
|
My final score was 94. It's not that bad, but I
wish I would've done better. Sonic losing to Samus just
killed my chances of getting a score above 120 in this
contest, but overall it's been a lot of fun, and I hope CJayC does
this again next summer.
---
How's Annie? |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 9/1/2002 4:30:20 PM | Message
Detail
|
I finished with 129. It's amazing how well you
can do in the later rounds, even if your first couple were only
mediocre.
I had Mario over Link in the final, I wouldn't have
won a prize but 161 points would have been sweet.
---
I've
been SHINE GOTTEN !!
Shine Count: 39 |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 9/1/2002 6:51:48 PM | Message
Detail
|
And so, the headline for the final
match:
Another round, another easy win for Link.
Mario
has been embarrassed. Link has opened up a 25% vote gap on him. The
#2 Nintendo mascot is destroying #1. Given the outcomes of recent
polls, today's result is hardly surprising, though if you'd told me
a few months ago that Link would easily dispose of Mario in a
popularity contest with a 100,000-voter base, I would have been very
skeptical. But Link has proven himself head and shoulders above
Mario, just as he did Sephiroth, and by proxy, everybody else in the
tournament.
Mario. Cloud Strife. Solid Snake. Crono.
Sephiroth. MegaMan. Six big names. Along with Link, it would not be
unfair to label these the "elite seven" of the tournament, adding
the impressive Blue Bomber and dark-horse Eastern champ to the five
names who so clearly stood out on the odds list published two months
ago. None of these seven was ever defeated by anybody from outside
the group, and whenever two of these seven clashed, the result was a
close battle. And it's far to say that any match within the Elite
would have been similarly close.
Close... unless that match
involved Link. Mario - the man who proved himself against tough
opposition - was utterly destroyed. Sephiroth fared much better, and
fans of the FF7 villain can take solace in the fact that, by being
the only character to drop Link below the 60% mark, he has a good
claim to the title of #2 character in the contest. But in the end,
even he could not threaten Link; his semi-final loss was obvious
from the first few minutes of voting.
Poor Mario. Excluding
the laughable Link/Scorpion affair, which can be blamed on the
rather sorry half-division that was the upper South, his eventual
loss represents the biggest blowout of the final nine matches, and
by a good margin. I don't begrudge Link the victory at all, but I
would have liked to see the character who better than anyone else
can claim the status of video game "legend" at least put up a good
fight.
Congratulations to Link. He just didn't win, he made
it look easy. Never once did he have a victory that was suspect. In
a contest which a some accused of being marred by cheaters, or
skewed by campaigning, Link rose above all the mess. People may
question the victories of Samus or Mario, but nobody will ever
question Link. And given the bitter nature of a certain minority of
the Contest followers, that is truly impressive.
I'll post
some more thoughts later
today.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
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