FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest
(Updated Nightly) |
| Page 6 of 9 | | |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/29/2002 5:36:22 AM | Message
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btw..i just checked ffonline..didnt see any
link --- "Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays
it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX |
From: Mario0128
| Posted: 8/29/2002 5:53:47 AM | Message
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wow solar, either your really fast at typing or
you pre-made this, either way, great work!!! and thanks for the
update! |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/29/2002 6:12:42 AM | Message
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Well..even though im rooting for square
characters..you cant really deny mario couldnt win with his fans on
gamefaqs.com. Advertisement and all for mario and cloud ruined the
tournament. I hope it wont happen ever again. The contest doesnt
represent gamefaqs anymore..link is taking out seph more easily than
he should..thats my opinion. Mario wouldnt have advanced..crono
could have beaten cloud since mario fans prefer crono and rpg fans
split their votes. Btw..i still hope crono vs link will happen. I
happen to be a Square fanboy too,..sort of. --- "Britney songs
are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public"
RamzaFX |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/29/2002 12:50:45 PM | Message
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I couldn't find the link on ffonline either,
which is why I qualified it with "apparently". I heard it mentioned
enough times to suspect it was true, but if it was the link was
taken down by the following day. Maybe if we poked around on their
forums we could find out more. --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/29/2002 1:04:35 PM | Message
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One last thing to consider... if a major
Final Fantasy site had put up a large "vote for Cloud" link, and PGC
had not put up one for Mario... if Mario had led with about 1000
votes halfway through the day, only to have that lead disappear...
in short, had the situation being reversed as completely as symmetry
allows, would you still feel the same way? This isn't intended as a
rhetorical question. Pause for a moment and think about
it.
Yep.
...wait. No, not quite. I'd have been
a little more impressed with Mario, actually. On Gamefaqs, he was
probably the underdog in this battle; to go toe to toe with Cloud
while he was even advertising on other sites would be most
impressive.
But if you're asking if I'd cry foul if Cloud,
not Mario, had a major site on his side and won...the answer is
no.
Thanks, Jjukil |
From: Panthera
| Posted: 8/29/2002 1:29:58 PM | Message
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I really don't think campaining for votes is
right in this sort of thing. At least not the way it was done. Its
okay if you go to a site like GameTalk, and post in several forums,
including FF ones AND some Nintendo ones about this contest, then we
have the benefit of extra voters. But going to a Nintendo site and
mentioning it is unfair. Its like you went to a club, told them that
in 2 days, there would be a vote for what country on Earth is the
best, and in the time before it, you recruited 100 Americans into
it, even though the club had only 130 people to start with. It makes
the result biased. --- "Kids can be so cruel"-Marge "We
can? Cool!"-Bart. |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/29/2002 7:26:47 PM | Message
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Some brief Scorpion vs. Link
analysis.
Well, finally a relatively boring match to let us
catch our breath. This one was never in doubt, and the fact that
Link smoked Scorpion was entirely expected.
The match ranks
as the 15th biggest blowout of the tournament, which is actually
pretty impressive for a fourth round match. And thanks to the
increased popularity of the fourth round matches, the vote gap
approached 48000, which makes it the 5th biggest gap of the contest.
That's a pretty sizeable victory.
The vote total wasn't as
high as the previous 3 matches, but the 91535 total votes still
places it 4th on the Top 10 Most Popular Polls list. Link's previous
polls brought in about 10000 more votes than Scorpion's, so while
impressive totals are old hat for Link, this is the first time
Scorpion can claim to be in a notably popular poll.
So,
Link's domination continues. His average vote percentage is an
impressive 77%, and he is the only character that has never gotten
less than 70% of the vote in any of his matches. Also, his most
recent vote count of 69544 places him at the top of the Biggest Vote
Getters list by almost 5000 votes more than the next character, and
he joins Cloud as the only other character to break 50000 votes in
all 4 of his matches, and Mega Man as the only other character to
break 60000 votes twice. Also note that he was only 500 votes shy of
breaking 60000 in his first match and less than 500 votes shy of
being the only character to reach 70000 votes. And with Mega Man and
Cloud out of the picture, Link is clearly the most dominating
character remaining.
Scorpion did well to get this far in the
tournament, but he was really no match for Link. Scorpion had been
averaging a modest 40000 votes in his previous matches, but only
garnered 22000 in his final battle. His percentage took a tumble to
24%, giving him an overall average of about 55%. So, after
overcoming the odds and pulling off upsets in the previous 2 rounds,
Scorpion is finally gone. This also marks the first casualty for the
impressive trio of 5th seeds. After beating number 4 and number 1
seeds in the previous 2 rounds, Crono went on to beat his number 2
seed (Solid Snake) while Scorpion lost to his (Link). The other
surviving member, Samus, has her hands full with the 7th seeded
Sephiroth and is unlikely to advance as well.
The mildly
impressive 57.0% prediction percentage will be the highest of the
fourth round, and most likely also the only one above the 50% mark.
We've finally entered the stage of the contest where most of the
contestants are getting each match wrong. So don't feel too bad if
your bracket's falling apart, since it's happening to many others as
well. Still, considering who Link's opponents were and how easily he
breezed past them, it's a little bit surprising that more people
didn't get it right. 69% had him winning his last match, so 22% of
those then thought he would lose the division final to the likes of
Pac-Man, Scorpion, or Max Payne. But at least Scorpion didn't win
the match, because if he had the prediction percentage probably
would have been in the 5% or lower range. :)
Next up for Link
is a semi-final matchup against either Sephiroth or Samus (probably
Sephiroth). I'd say that either way, Link will have the edge. He has
shown no weakness in the competition so far, so it will be up to his
opponent to either humble him or just watch him keep padding his
statistics. --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: MMXcaliburPartDeux
| Posted: 8/29/2002 7:36:03 PM | Message
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Again, I am humbled in your presence of stats
solar.
My prediction for Link vs Sephiroth, if Cloud (who was
whipping Nintendo mascots Pikachu and Fox) couldn't take
Mario....Sephiroth (who slid by Samus and Mega Man) isn't beating my
other fave character Link. Link is very popular and isn't hated as
much as Mario is around here. Link wins 65-35, IMO.
As for
Crono vs Mario, I honestly think it could go either way...Crono's
got the Cloud voters behind him and Crono has a fanbase in his own
right. Im not sure who Im voting for. Two of my fave characters. I
might go Crono just because I enjoyed Chrono Trigger THAT MUCH! But
I picked Mario. Crono 51-49, IMO. In an upset.
Again,
great job solar. All tourney long. --- MMXcalibur:
Returns!!!!!!! (minus the warning....-_-''') |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/29/2002 11:42:13 PM | Message
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I'm starting to get worried about tonight's
match. It hasn't started yet but something keeps shouting "Crono!
Crono! Crono!" at me. I won't be surprised if he loses anymore.
Hopefully he'll still pull through. --- I've been
SHINE GOTTEN !! Shine Count: 20 |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/29/2002 11:50:53 PM | Message
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Thanks very much, MMXcalibur.
Crono
beating Mario would be another amazing upset, but I don't doubt his
abilities anymore. If that happens though I think Link will probably
win the tournament. But that's not a bad guess either way.
:) --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/30/2002 12:21:35 AM | Message
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Tonight's Results:
5 - Samus Aran (36:1)
- 46047 / 47.36% (97224) 7 - Sephiroth (9:1)
- 51177 / 52.64% (97224) - 6428 /
38.3%
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Closest Matches
(difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% - (0.04%) 2)
(iv) Mario 50.11% vs. Cloud Strife 49.89% -
(0.22%) 3) (iii) Mega Man 49.49% vs. Sephiroth
50.51% - (1.02%) 4) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06%
vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%) 5) Strider Hiryu
52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%) 6) (iv)
Samus Aran 47.36% vs. Sephiroth 52.64% -
(5.28%) 7) (iv) Crono 52.93% vs. Solid Snake
47.07% - (5.86%) 8) Jill Valentine 53.34%
vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%) 9) Alucard 54.32%
vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%) 10)
Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% -
(8.82%)
Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps
(difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34) 2) (iv)
Mario 64990 vs. Cloud Strife 64713 -
(277) 3) (iii) Mega Man 48185 vs. Sephiroth
49172 - (987) 4) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs.
Aya Brea 30478 - (1320) 5) Strider Hiryu
30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001) 6) Jill
Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702) 7)
Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 -
(4975) 8) (iv) Samus Aran 46047 vs. Sephiroth
51177 - (5130) 9) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles
"Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326) 10) (iv) Crono
52517 vs. Solid Snake 46697 -
(5820)
Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote
totals)
1) (iv) Mario vs. Cloud Strife - 129703 2)
(iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake - 99214 3) (iii) Mega Man vs.
Sephiroth - 97357 4) (iv) Samus Aran vs. Sephiroth -
97224 5) (iv) Scorpion vs. Link - 91535 6) (iii)
Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273 7) (iii) Sonic the
Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912 8) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud
Strife - 75371 9) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake -
75247 10) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife -
74365
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by
votes)
1) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713 2) (iii) Mega
Man - 48185 3) (iv) Solid Snake - 46697 4) (iv)
Samus Aran - 46047 5) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog -
41939 6) Kirby - 32837 7) (iii) Aeris -
32702 8) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478 9) (iii) Pac-Man
- 28936 10) (ii) Ryu - 28630
Top 10
Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest
entrants choosing the winner)
1) (iv) Crono 14.6% vs.
Solid Snake 2) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3% 3) (ii)
Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem 4) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
vs. Samus Aran 31.8% 5) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill
Valentine 32.5% 6) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono
33.1% 7) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne 8) (iv)
Samus Aran vs. Sephiroth 38.3% 9) Morrigan Aensland
42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7% 10) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs.
Tina Armstrong 43.7%
--- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/30/2002 12:59:28 AM | Message
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I'm starting to see a distinct pattern in which
lists need to be updated each night...
Anyway, the website is
almost completely updated. I'll save the contest averages and the
fourth round top 1 lists (ahem) for tomorrow. New poll going up very
shortly. Not quite sure what yet, but I'll figure something out.
:) --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/30/2002 1:38:04 AM | Message
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Well, the poll idea I had won't work because I'm
only allowed 10 possible answers. Bah. I guess I'll leave the
current one up a bit longer. It's a good poll and could use some
more votes.
I just looked at the results page and determined
that I no longer have a mathematical chance of winning this contest.
Although if everything goes my way it's still technically
possible for me to finish tied for third (albeit exceedingly
unlikely). I'm not counting on it though. :) --- Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Stats
Discussion:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3916637 |
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/30/2002 1:41:05 AM | Message
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Link wins 65-35, IMO.
You're mad.
Absolutely mad. You're more crazy than I was when I said Samus would
have an edge against Link (although now nobody will ever be able to
prove I was crazy, thankfully for my bracket).
I agree
that Link has to have the edge, but it's far from certain. I fully
expect another Mario/Cloud affair. Do you honestly believe that 30%
of Sephiroth's fanbase will suddenly turn against him and vote Link,
combined with 100% of the Samus voters? Because even that wouldn't
make the gap as wide as you propose...
As for Mario/Crono...
Crono continues to absolutely amaze me. It's become clear that this
will be yet another close one. I still see Mario winning, but Crono
will put up a good fight, and may even pull off a massive
upset.
And of course, after today's close match and
tomorrow's, we likely have another close match to finish off the
tournament. Earlier I figured Mario had it wrapped up, but now I
think I may have overreacted to the impressive numbers (65000
against a very good opponent). Now, I just find it hard to call.
Mario, Crono, Link, Sephiroth... none of the four has better than a
2 in 5 chance of winning it all, and none of the four winning would
genuinely surprise me any more. It's anyone's game.
Nothing
left to do but sit back, grab the popcorn, marvel at the insanities
of fans, and enjoy the show.
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes
I think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they
fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
From: Kirby
Still On Top | Posted: 8/30/2002 10:08:26 AM | Message
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The top 49 going into the final 4: Link -
14 Mario - 13 Sephiroth - 13 Crono - 6 Samus -
2 Solid snake - 1 |
From: atomtaco
| Posted: 8/30/2002 12:15:48 PM | Message
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Just congratulating you on a job well done with
these stats, solarshadow.
Kudos!
And I still believe
Mario will win, being helped out greatly by the many people coming
to this site, specifically for the purpose of looking for help with
Super Mario Sunshine.
--- Vote in the GAMEFAQS Greatest
RPG Character Tournament at:
http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4121201 |
From: Cthulhu
| Posted: 8/30/2002 2:49:26 PM | Message
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::marks for future viewing:: |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/30/2002 9:55:59 PM | Message
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Impressive..crono is gaining ground on
mario..around 340-350 votes behind..It might be the biggest upset of
this tournament. I hope crono will take out mario --- "Britney
songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in
public" RamzaFX |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/30/2002 10:04:57 PM | Message
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crono frenzy is on the board..right after mario
took back some 65-70 votes..he came back strong and is now at 49.98!
47 votes behind..ill keep you guys informed..ahh i can barely wait
for the next update! crono is currently pulling off the biggest
upset! --- "Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone
plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/30/2002 10:23:39 PM | Message
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finally..it was a major cheater using a scrip
who voted 490 times for crono. But he's still at 49.89 which is VERY
close --- "Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays
it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX |
From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/30/2002 10:32:48 PM | Message
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Keep up the good work solar! Here are the
last formatted stats I'll give you, I don't think the semi-finals
and finals would be really that more useful once
formatted. http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/stats4.txt
If
Crono manages to beat Mario I wonder how many contestants will have
picked this battle right....5% or so maybe? May he win or not, I
think that since the beginning of this contest (and even more
tonight) Crono has earned well-deserved respect, from both Square
and Nintendo fans.... Are there many characters who can say they
accomplished that? Not really....
Oh well, I'm going back to
my bowl of pop-corn and I'll wait for the results
;)
--- "Everything gold does not glitter Not all those
who wander are lost" |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/30/2002 10:55:09 PM | Message
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This is official..i repeat this is
official..crono is currently leading by 20 votes! I have my fingers
crossed to hope he keeps gaining. --- "Britney songs are like
Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public"
RamzaFX |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/30/2002 11:39:24 PM | Message
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Mario took back the lead..and crono just gained
it back..only 30 minutes remain..crono in the lead with 50.6% or
about a little more than 100 votes. As someone else pointed out on
the boards..this being the 1000th gamefaqs poll..isnt it a little
ironic if crono won since he's from 1000 A.D? Anyway..30 minutes
left..2 updates..we'll see what happens. --- "Britney songs
are like Final Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public"
RamzaFX |
From: marsman57
| Posted: 8/30/2002 11:43:10 PM | Message
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Dude, this contest is interesting... but I've
lost all chances of winning, but I'm still into it. I'm glad to see
Crono doing so well since everyone seemed to underestimate him ^_^.
Sorry I haven't posted much lately, been busy with
college! --- "Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord
Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/30/2002 11:48:37 PM | Message
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one update remaining..crono still in lead with
50.03% with a little less than 100 votes..i expect it will be
heavily matched. Not trying to offend anyone..but i think we should
now call this pulling a crono! Anyway..go crono! crono-link finals
would be the most interesting..with the clash of the time
heroes. --- "Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone
plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/30/2002 11:53:25 PM | Message
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Heh. I guess I was right about one of my
predictions after all. Took long enough. ^_^
I've been gone
for most of the night. What did I miss? How long has Crono been this
close? And what's this about a script voter for
Crono...? --- http://members.aol.com/Jjukil The Great
Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/30/2002 11:53:32 PM | Message
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Well, I just got in after a long day and it
looks like I've missed some excitement. I was expecting Mario to
still be comfortably in the lead, not fighting for his life. And
what's this about catching a cheater? I guess I missed all the fun.
And I certainly didn't anticipate a photo finish.
Cool. --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/30/2002 11:55:42 PM | Message
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...good grief, we just made almost exactly the
same post, Solar. =P
*is fully expecting to see you post this
just before he does* --- http://members.aol.com/Jjukil The
Great Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/30/2002 11:57:52 PM | Message
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I summarized since i know you guys werent
there..and missed most of the fun..anyway 5 minutes left..and we
shall see the winner. --- "Britney songs are like Final
Fantasy, evryone plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX |
From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/30/2002 11:58:32 PM | Message
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Hey Solar! Hey Jjukil! The cheater you guys
are talking about voted something like 490 times for Crono within 40
minutes, CJayC caught him and took away those 500 votes from
Crono. Mario was leading by about 1200-1300 (if I remember well)
at about 6pm and Crono came back within a few hours and they've been
exchanging the lead each 15 minutes for the last 2 hours
:) --- "Everything gold does not glitter Not all those who
wander are lost" |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 12:06:54 AM | Message
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Jjukil: Heh, and only 7 seconds apart. That is
pretty amazing. I couldn't pull it off a second time though, because
I got stuck trying to catch up on some website formatting for
tonight's results (I'm way behind) and didn't see your post in time.
:)
I just saw your website. Looks cool. I'll poke around some
more when I have time. Don't suppose you'd mind if I linked to it
from the stats site? Thought not. :) --- Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: marsman57
| Posted: 8/31/2002 12:29:01 AM | Message
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This is a little bonus... we don't know about
people that have Mario winning because we don't know if they have
Link or Sephiroth winning today, but these should be your top 10 if
Sephiroth or Link win (barring a few differences if there are ties,
I forgot to check and didn't feel like going back to mark them, the
only ones I checked on were ties for 10th which are marked with a -,
and in the case of only one - being marked that means that others
are tied but unlisted)
If Sephiroth wins, this should be your
top
10 Smrpg64 m0gster vpRockstar Skwave Spektre Evil
Genius Linksbrotherlunk N64GmMstr Secef
126 -a99a99a99
If Link wins, this should be your top
10 Burney Fat Morton Jellyroll TRA synergy magnolia
brandon I am spam LeLoup Moogle Man Young
Janus -SutterCane -SeladonEQ -KyerWiz --- "Got a bad
case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" --
8-bit theater |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/31/2002 12:29:17 AM | Message
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Heh. Certainly not, Solar. =) I actually made a
topic about it earlier today, but almost nobody's noticed so far.
With today's matchup, though, I'm not sure I can blame
them.
Like I said in that topic, tell me what you think, and
feel free to make contributions. After the last few days, I'd
especially value what you guys had to say. If you'd rather keep
them off of this topic, here's a link to the one I made
earlier: http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4129525 (Putting
them there would help me, too, of course, since it would bump the
topic.... ^_^)
And it's good to hear Ceej did something about
that bit of cheating. As it turns out, it would have made all the
difference. Man, what a close one. I was really pulling for
Crono, too--especially when the final update had him ahead. =/ Ah
well.
Did Ceej put up a message about the cheater on this
board or something? If not, how did we find out about it? And if so,
got a link to the topic I could check
out? --- http://members.aol.com/Jjukil The Great Gamefaqs
Character Battle: A Look Back |
From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/31/2002 12:33:23 AM | Message
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|
http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4133741 this
is the link for the topic about the cheater --- "Everything
gold does not glitter Not all those who wander are lost" |
From: PRIMESTAR2000
| Posted: 8/31/2002 12:36:44 AM | Message
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why even give a damn about this
crap? --- "Welcome to the other side of reality, and this is
your eternity" --- Look it up yourself!!! |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 12:37:17 AM | Message
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Tonight's Results:
1 - Mario
(6:1) - 53831 / 50.05% (107547) - 5190 /
31.0% 5 - Crono (33:1) - 53716 / 49.95%
(107547)
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Closest
Matches (difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the
Hedgehog 49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% -
(0.04%) 2) (v) Mario 50.05% vs. Crono 49.95%
- (0.10%) 3) (iv) Mario 50.11% vs. Cloud Strife
49.89% - (0.22%) 4) (iii) Mega Man 49.49%
vs. Sephiroth 50.51% - (1.02%) 5) (ii) Donkey Kong
51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%) 6)
Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% -
(5.14%) 7) (iv) Samus Aran 47.36% vs. Sephiroth
52.64% - (5.28%) 8) (iv) Crono 52.93% vs.
Solid Snake 47.07% - (5.86%) 9) Jill Valentine
53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%) 10)
Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% -
(8.64%)
Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps
(difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34) 2) (v)
Mario 53831 vs. Crono 53716 - (115) 3) (iv)
Mario 64990 vs. Cloud Strife 64713 -
(277) 4) (iii) Mega Man 48185 vs. Sephiroth
49172 - (987) 5) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs.
Aya Brea 30478 - (1320) 6) Strider Hiryu
30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001) 7) Jill
Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702) 8)
Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 -
(4975) 9) (iv) Samus Aran 46047 vs. Sephiroth
51177 - (5130) 10) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles
"Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326)
Top 10
Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)
1) (iv) Mario vs.
Cloud Strife - 129703 2) (v) Mario vs. Crono -
107547 3) (iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake - 99214 4)
(iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357 5) (iv) Samus Aran
vs. Sephiroth - 97224 6) (iv) Scorpion vs. Link -
91535 7) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link -
85273 8) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran -
83912 9) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371 10) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake -
75247
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by
votes)
1) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713 2) (v) Crono -
53716 3) (iii) Mega Man - 48185 4) (iv) Solid
Snake - 46697 5) (iv) Samus Aran - 46047 6)
(iii) Sonic the Hedgehog - 41939 7) Kirby -
32837 8) (iii) Aeris - 32702 9) (ii) Aya Brea -
30478 10) (iii) Pac-Man - 28936
Top
10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of contest
entrants choosing the winner)
1) (iv) Crono 14.6% vs.
Solid Snake 2) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3% 3) (ii)
Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem 4) (v) Mario 31.0% vs.
Crono 5) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran
31.8% 6) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5% 7)
(iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1% 8) (ii) Scorpion
33.6% vs. Max Payne 9) (iv) Samus Aran vs. Sephiroth
38.3% 10) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon
57.7%
--- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 12:39:17 AM | Message
Detail
|
And another (wouldn't all fit in one
post):
Top 10 Most Even Matches (based on the odds,
ratio in italics)
1) (v) Link (9:1) vs. Sephiroth (9:1) -
1.0 2) (ii) Crono (33:1) vs. Dante (36:1) - 1.1
3) Ryo Hazuki (250:1) vs. Guybrush Threepwood (300:1) -
1.2 3) Bomberman (250:1) vs. Kane (300:1) - 1.2
5) Terry Bogard (200:1) vs. Aya Brea (250:1) - 1.3 5)
(iii) Samus Aran (36:1) vs. Sonic the Hedgehog (45:1) - 1.3
7) (ii) Jill Valentine (180:1) vs. Bomberman (250:1) -
1.4 8) (iii) Crono (33:1) vs. Lara Croft (50:1) -
1.5 9) (ii) Samus Aran (36:1) vs. Ryu (55:1) - 1.5
10) Raziel (160:1) vs. Strider Hiryu (250:1) - 1.6
--- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 1:11:25 AM | Message
Detail
|
Thanks again for the formatting, King Morgoth.
Your help has been greatly appreciated throughout the contest. I've
updated the website with the formatted lists... I think. I've got so
much to catch up on I can't remember what I've done. Oh well, only 2
more days and I can relax. :)
And you're probably right, if
Crono had won the prediction percentage would probably be around 5%
(even less, I'd guess). It would have been an amazing upset.
--- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Kirby
Still On Top | Posted: 8/31/2002 1:26:10 AM | Message
Detail
|
more uselessness... Mario - 25 Link -
12 Sephiroth - 10 Samus - 2
Someone with 130 pts in 8th
place has Samus winning. The poor thing... --- "since when did
"not" becoming a virgin become cool?" - mrduckbear3 |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/31/2002 1:27:14 AM | Message
Detail
|
1) (v) Link (9:1) vs. Sephiroth (9:1) -
1.0
I find this stat especially interesting, considering
the thrashing Sephiroth's getting right now. (He's already more than
2000 votes behind; judging by the only comebacks so far--Samus and
Mario, from 1500 down or less--he's already lost.) I don't think
ANYONE else saw THIS coming.
And by else, I don't mean me; I
was as wrong as usual. =P I mean MMXCalibur. You called it,
man...you called it. And after we all called you crazy,
too. Hopefully things will improve later today, and we can stand
by our words.
;) --- http://members.aol.com/Jjukil The Great
Gamefaqs Character Battle: A Look Back |
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/31/2002 1:39:46 AM | Message
Detail
|
I imagine Sephiroth will definitely close the
gap, but he's definitely lost. My guess is a 55/45 split at the end
of things.
Will Link take out Mario just as badly? I don't
even want to try guessing any
more.
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/31/2002 1:58:28 AM | Message
Detail
|
NeoElfboy:
Sorry I haven't
responded to your rebuttal on campaigning about four pages back
earlier. I just want to say that you make many excellent points. But
I think that the whole interconnection of revenge and anti-votes is
an important part of the game, and they will happen regardless. The
polls are tainted, and will never give you a 100% accuracy to who
the most popular character is. This may not produce a completely
pure winner, but that's what happens when people vote.
If
Cloud managed to come back from behind and beat Mario because an
outside website helped him, I would be upset, but only because my
character lost. People will campaign, and it's just as much a part
of the game as anything else. If Cloud got more votes, he got more
votes.
ncrdrg:
I'm glad you called the the
Crono VS Mario match, I was gone for the last part and it sounded
quite exciting! Another extremely close match. If CJayC
hadn't have caught that cheater, it would have been Crono going on.
Wow. I'm really shocked. Crono but up a spectacular show throughout
the contest, and he almost made it to the finals. Crono was
definitely the Cinderella story of this
contest.
solarshadow:
More great work, as
always. This contest has been the highlight of my Gamefaq's message
board history, and your hard work and dedication has made it 800
times better.
Samberdog fanclub:
After this
match, I'm now in the 97th percentile! Go me! I'll be getting
another sixteen points as long as Link wins, and if Mario takes the
final, I just might win a prize! Well, no I won't, but I'm very
pleased with myself.
^_^
--- I've been SHINE
GOTTEN !! Shine Count: 30 |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 3:23:40 AM | Message
Detail
|
Okay, the website is now fully updated (I don't
think I missed anything). Also, a new poll will be going up
tomorrow, just as soon as I'm convinced that Sephiroth has lost. :)
I guess I'm behind on analysis posts though. Not sure I've
got anything left in me tonight. Might wait until tomorrow for those
(I should have a free day). Don't forget to check out Jjukil's cool
site. =) --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: MMXcalibur
| Posted: 8/31/2002 6:11:51 AM | Message
Detail
|
Well....I called the Mario/Crono match for a lil
bit... till some jackass was cheating.... >_>....either
way, I would have been happy if Mario or Crono moved on..both good
characters...but I had Mario winning. I know your sick of all
this praise, solarshadow....but your doing a great job. If your
tired of praise, feel free to contact me for some depressing
ridicule :D :p
Anyway, Link is taking it to Sephy now. And I
am quite the happy camper.....
NOW! Mario vs
Link!! Battle of Nintendo legends. The opposite of Cloud vs
Sephiroth. Square fans will now know why most people spoke of a
"no cloud vs sephiroth battle".
On the battle
itself...barring NO cheating. I'd have to give the nod to
Link. Mario is surviving by insanly close amounts. Mario
barely sneaked past Cloud. Link is taking it to
Sephiroth. That fact alone tells me Link has won the GameFAQs
2002 Summer Contest. Link wins 60-40, IMO.
Now, I had Link
vs mario in my finals wit Link winning, did anyone else have
that. Two of my final four were knocked out. But I should gain a
respectable score with a correct finals and winner prediction. At
least Link (my other fave character) will go on...poor Mega Man (#1
fave for me:D) ...... --- (^>.<)-(
()============<D <(0_o'<) -KIRBY
X-BUSTER!
|
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/31/2002 6:16:17 AM | Message
Detail
|
Nice going Samberdog!
My bracket stands
in ruins, now. With Sephiroth's loss, my Summer 2002 Contest has
ended. My final score is 91 points (48 out of 63 matches correctly
predicted). Not bad, but it could've been a lot better for somebody
tied for #30-something out of 16,000+ before the Tidus/Sonic match.
I stand at the 73rd percentile now, but I figure the last two
matches will drop me to around the 60th.
I'll be voting Mario
tomorrow. For 62 days, I voted either to support my bracket, or
screw over those of others. It just seems fitting that I finish by
paying homage to the character that symbolises video games better
than any other. But I can't say I'll be upset with either character
taking the win. May the better Nintendo legend
win.
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
From: ekjl
| Posted: 8/31/2002 12:39:27 PM | Message
Detail
|
Excellent work. --- Animal Crossing
~~ Town: Okinawa Name: Hiro |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/31/2002 2:30:56 PM | Message
Detail
|
Okay, I've updated the website fully. Also,
following ReaPeR xZ's suggestion, I've added which division each
character is in to the odds page. I'm not sure if I particularly
like the addition, so give me some feedback and tell me what you
think.
Since Sephiroth is now down by almost 10,000 votes I'm
officially counting him out. :) So, I've added a new poll to the
stats site. It's a third place poll - vote for either Crono or
Sephiroth (I even made a little graphic for it so that it feels
official).
That's it for now. I'll be back in awhile to catch
up on the analyses. --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/31/2002 3:39:47 PM | Message
Detail
|
Wow, the division is a nice addition on the odds
page.....many people are complaining that Link had the easiest
division of the bracket and...oh well, just read
on....
Link's highest seeded opponent was #13 (Pac-Man),
which is lower than any other division's second highest seed. BUT,
and this is important, 7 of the Top 25 seeds are in the South
Division.....more than in any of the three others....
I don't
know if it makes sense, but it seems like people are once again
complaining about nothing ;) *brings in a huge "Go Link!" flag
and sits down, waiting for the finals to
begin* --- "Everything gold does not glitter Not all those
who wander are lost" |
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/31/2002 3:49:27 PM | Message
Detail
|
Link definitely had the easiest division. Look
at that chart.
How many of the top 17 come from the South?
Two, and the only one there other than Link is down at #13. Two out
of seventeen. That's pathetic.
It's true that after that, a
lot of Southies show up... but characters ranked #20 and below just
aren't going to be a threat to the likes of Link, Mario, or Cloud.
The point is, of all the final four... Mario had to face Cloud.
Sephiroth had to face Samus and MegaMan. Crono had Dante, Lara
Croft, and Solid Snake.
Link had? Jill Valentine... I
guess.
Not that it matters; Link could have faced anyone and
he'd almost certainly still be here. But even big Link fans admit he
had an easy journey to get to the Final
Four.
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/31/2002 4:05:45 PM | Message
Detail
|
Looks like I should have found another way to
say what I said. I didn't mean to say that he didn't have an easy
journey going to the final four, he had the easiest route to the
final four, and probably even to the finals (IMHO Cloud and Mario
are both more dangerous than Sephiroth).
The thing is he
deserves to be there as much as the three others and he would
probably be there even if he had faced harder characters in the past
rounds (well, who really knows for sure...). I'm just tired of
fffanboys that keep writing on the boards here (and God knows how
many they are) that Link doesn't deserve to be where he is now, and
blah blah blah.
Maybe I'm taking this contest too
seriously....or maybe I juste like Link a lot
;) --- "Everything gold does not glitter Not all those who
wander are lost" |
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