FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest
(Updated Nightly) |
| Page 5 of 9 | | |
From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/26/2002 9:35:56 PM | Message
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Good work Solar! Here are the full third
round stats
: http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/stats3.txt
I don't
know if anyone is going to read my post but I need to errrr...
"express" myself anyways ;)
I think that today could be one
of the saddest (sp?) days in all gaming history...even though I will
loose 24 points if Mario wins tonight, I think he "should" win. Oh
well, no one "deserves" to win a POPULARITY contest except for the
character who'll get the most votes... I know that this have been
said before, that this is not a matter of who deserves to win but of
who is most popular, and that is exactly the point I'm trying to
make. This will be a sad day if a single-game character like Cloud
happens to be more POPULAR than Mario. I won't be mad, I won't start
flaming anyone who voted for Cloud, I won't stop coming here, I
won't stop flaming FF games, I won't cry. I will simply be sad, that
a character like Cloud (I have nothing against Cloud, but he's only
been in a single game, which is not enough for him to be a "legend")
has beaten a gaming icon like Mario. And I hope that I'm not the
only one.....
I only hope that this makes sense and that I
don't look like a fanboy... --- "Everything gold does not
glitter Not all those who wander are lost" |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/26/2002 10:00:18 PM | Message
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Here's a little Fourth Round preview for you.
I've included the characters with their seeding, the odds, and the
percentage of contest entrants that chose them to win their previous
match. It's not much, but it might give us some indication of which
characters are likely to win and how many people might get it
right.
1 - Mario (6:1) - 72.5% 2 - Cloud Strife
(14:1) - 53.5%
5 - Crono (33:1) - 33.1% 2 - Solid Snake
(8:1) - 67.5%
5 - Scorpion (150:1) - 17.3% 2 - Link
(9:1) - 69.0%
5 - Samus Aran (36:1) - 31.8% 7 -
Sephiroth (9:1) - 55.7%
-FOURTH ROUND PREVIEW
ANALYSIS-
This round with starts off with a bang, as the
Mario vs. Cloud matchup is likely to be the most exciting and
meaningful of the entire round. It's the first clash of 2 "elite
five" characters and both are strong contenders to win the
tournament, so no matter what the outcome this will definitely shake
up a lot of brackets. At 6:1 Mario has the best odds in the
tournament, with Cloud's 14:1 not far behind at 5th. So not only
does that indicate that this should be a good battle, but it also
shows that there is a lot on the line. Mario hasn't been as
impressive as he should have been in the previous rounds, but he can
make up for that now if he can take down Cloud. Cloud has been a
force all throughout the contest, but hasn't really faced a real
challenge until now. This battle should be epic and draw a record
number of voters. As for the eventual outcome? Too close to
call.
The other close battle of the round could be Crono vs.
Solid Snake. Snake has been underwhelming in his previous battles,
but he has had some decent competition. Crono on the other hand has
been doing remarkably well, particularly for a character who was
only really in 1 game way back on the SNES (plus the PS1
re-release). He could surprise a lot of people and pull off the
upset against Snake. Of course, if Snake does manage to win (and he
probably should), this will give us a good indication of whether he
has a chance to make the finals or not. If he only squeaks by Crono,
bigger Square mascots like Cloud are likely to make him look silly
(or those that beat the Square mascots, if Mario can win), but if he
can pull off a sizeable victory he may just have a chance against
the rest of the "elite five".
Link vs. Scorpion is probably
the only matchup that could be considered "blowout" material. Link
should take this easily, with Scorpion putting up a decent but
ultimately non-threatening fight. It will serve as a nice breather
after all the excitement of the previous matches. And it should have
the highest prediction percentage of the fourth round. Mario and
Snake will be locked in tough battles, and none of the other
characters were predicted last round by more that 55% of the
entrants, so those totals should remain low no matter what the
outcome. Of course, if Scorpion were to win it would set an
amazingly low record in that category, since only 17% even had him
getting this far.
And finally we have Samus vs. Sephiroth.
This one is Sephiroth's to lose, and it's unlikely that Samus will
take it away from him. She's done well in defeating some hard
opponents (most notably Sonic), but she just barely pulled through
in her last match and Sephiroth is another step up from that. Still,
I wouldn't count her out just yet, but the edge is definitely with
Sephiroth. I expect this to be the hardest match to predict of the
round, unless Crono (or maybe Cloud) wins, in which case he'll
probably have that honor. Either way, the prediction percentage for
this match should be in the 40% range if Sephiroth wins it, and way
down in the 20% and lower range if Samus takes it.
Now that
the matches have finally gotten interesting this should really be a
lot of fun. Sit back and enjoy it. --- Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/26/2002 10:30:47 PM | Message
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Thanks again, King Morgoth. Just when I was
starting to wonder where you were you appear bearing nicely
formatted lists. :)
What you posted makes sense, although
personally I won't feel too sad if Mario loses (even though I had
him taking it all in my bracket). Cloud being just as popular as
Mario (or slightly more popular) on a site like GameFAQs doesn't
surprise me all that much. I figured Mario could still take it, but
it looks like the FF support was even stronger than I'd thought. On
a more balanced site Mario would do much better, but RPGs have
always dominated GameFAQs so Cloud and co. have a bit of an
edge.
Even still, it is amazing that the massive
contributions Mario has made to video games could be so easily
trumped by a 1-game wonder (he didn't have a starring role in any of
the subsequent games he appeared in). Games starring Mario have
pulled in over $7 billion over the years. So Mario losing would be
kind of disappointing, but give some credit to Cloud, he was a
pretty cool character from a very significant game.
I
won't be mad, I won't start flaming anyone who voted for Cloud, I
won't stop coming here, I won't stop flaming FF games, I
won't cry.
Uh, did you mean to say that?
:) --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/27/2002 12:33:00 AM | Message
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...well. That little round of insanity is
done.
Not that the boards won't be ringing for hours with the
aftermath... ...not that they weren't already ringing before....
*sighs*
Looks like you've got quite a bit of updating to do,
Solar. =)
...as for me, I've got a lot of banging my head on
the desk to do. I had Snake winning today...and on the 30th...and on
the 1st....*bangs head on the desk repeatedly*
Thanks,
Jjukil |
From: Old
Master Q | Posted: 8/27/2002 12:35:17 AM | Message
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compared to the last few matches this one can be
considered a breather.
but, we never know what'll happen
during the day....... --- A person is only as big as the
things that make him angry. |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/27/2002 12:41:15 AM | Message
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Tonight's Results:
1 - Mario
(6:1) - 64990 / 50.11% (129703) - 7416 /
44.2% 2 - Cloud Strife (14:1) - 64713 / 49.89%
(129703)
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Closest
Matches (difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the
Hedgehog 49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% -
(0.04%) 2) (iv) Mario 50.11% vs. Cloud Strife
49.89% - (0.22%) 3) (iii) Mega Man 49.49%
vs. Sephiroth 50.51% - (1.02%) 4) (ii) Donkey Kong
51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%) 5)
Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% -
(5.14%) 6) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby
46.66% - (6.68%) 7) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles
"Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%) 8) Pikachu
54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% -
(8.82%) 9) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield
44.54% - (10.92%) 10) (iii) Aeris 43.46% vs.
Solid Snake 56.54% - (13.08%)
Top 10
Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)
1) (iii)
Sonic the Hedgehog 41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 -
(34) 2) (iv) Mario 64990 vs. Cloud Strife
64713 - (277) 3) (iii) Mega Man 48185 vs.
Sephiroth 49172 - (987) 4) (ii) Donkey Kong
31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 - (1320) 5) Strider
Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001) 6)
Jill Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 -
(4702) 7) Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper
25736 - (4975) 8) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles
"Tails" Prower 28190 - (5326) 9) Tidus 35004
vs. Claire Redfield 28117 - (6887) 10) Kyo Kusanagi
31160 vs. Abe 22760 - (8400)
Top
10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)
1) (iv) Mario vs.
Cloud Strife - 129703 2) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth -
97357 3) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link -
85273 4) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran -
83912 5) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371 6) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247 7)
(iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365 8) (iii) Lara Croft
vs. Crono - 74059 9) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud -
73242 10) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart -
71676
Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters
1)
(iv) Mario - 64990 2) (iv) Cloud Strife -
64713 3) Mega Man - 63039 4) (iii) Link -
61931 5) Sephiroth - 61367 6) (ii) Mega Man -
60914 7) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926 8) Link -
59509 9) Cloud Strife - 54643 10) (ii) Link -
53992
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by
votes)
1) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713 2) (iii) Mega
Man - 48185 3) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog -
41939 4) Kirby - 32837 5) (iii) Aeris -
32702 6) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478 7) (iii) Pac-Man
- 28936 8) (ii) Ryu - 28630 9) Miles "Tails"
Prower - 28190 10) Claire Redfield -
28117
Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
(based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the
winner)
1) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3% 2) (ii)
Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem 3) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
vs. Samus Aran 31.8% 4) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill
Valentine 32.5% 5) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono
33.1% 6) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne 7)
Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7% 8)
Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7% 9) (iv)
Mario 44.2% vs. Cloud Strife 10) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo
Kusanagi 50.5%
--- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: DRDPRGer
| Posted: 8/27/2002 12:48:17 AM | Message
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Thanks for the update! Always nice to have some
numbers on here. --- Ed will introduce Ed. Full name, Edward
Wong Hau Pepelu Tivrusky the 4th - Ed from Cowboy Bebop. |
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/27/2002 12:54:06 AM | Message
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Wow.
Just... wow.
First of all,
congrats are in order to Solar for getting the perfect North
division.
Myself, I say goodbye to 24 points, after
mispicking the big match. And, two days after the Sonic/Samus
debacle, I sort of understand how the Sonic fans felt, finally. My
feelings are nowhere near as extreme, since I am not personally a
fan of Cloud's (I liked FF7, but it is far from my favourite game),
yet a part of me does feel cheated. I know there are plenty of good
reasons for Mario deserving the win, but I am a little annoyed that
he only (apparently) won because of the influx of votes from
Nintendo-based sites. In a sense, this shouldn't bother me... does
it not prove that Mario fans were more devoted, if they were willing
to campaign for their cause? But I didn't expect this, so bother me
it does. A factor unaccounted for.
After the high-pressure
matches of the previous days, I'm looking forward to bit of
down-time, and hopefully NOT having to hit that Refresh button at
least once every half an hour. Crono's current lead over Snake looks
massive by recent standards (though I would have called it close
just last week... how quickly things change!) and I don't expect
Link or Sephiroth to lose. Nor Mario, for that matter, against his
next opponent. It'll be very nice to relax.
During the first
week of the contest, I remarked that I didn't feel Mario was up to
the standards of the characters I saw as the true talent (Link,
Cloud, and Sephiroth) in this Contest. However, at that time, I
qualified that statement with my belief that if Mario could prove me
wrong and overcome Cloud, he could overcome anybody.
And I do
wonder, who will stop Mario now? There are really only two
possibilities, Link and Sephiroth. But seeing what Mario was able to
accomplish... to tap the fact that he does mean more to the
industry than anything else... do they really have a chance? I once
claimed Link had a better chance than Mario, because very few
dislike Link, while the same isn't quite as true for the man in red.
But if the Nintendo faithful were forced to choose... can you
honestly say they would go against their mascot? They certainly
didn't for Donkey Kong, and while Link is admittedly a few leagues
above the ape, somehow I doubt his fate will be different. And
Sephiroth? I just can't see him accomplishing what Cloud couldn't. I
do believe he's perceived as cooler than Cloud, and would likely win
if those two had met... but in general, I'd have to say that if
Mario could defeat Cloud, the same support would give him the win
over the Contest's only villain.
Is Mario now the clear
favourite? If not, who can beat him?
Let's hope to see the
return of sanity to the Boards as we search for the
answers.
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
From: Old
Master Q | Posted: 8/27/2002 12:57:50 AM | Message
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niiiiice post. --- A person is only as big
as the things that make him angry. |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/27/2002 1:24:35 AM | Message
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Amazing. That match was one for the ages. It
lived up to all the hype, and even surpassed it.
Where to
start. I guess with tonight's huge winner, Mario. I don't know what
to say. He started out the contest favorite, with the best odds and
the support of many. But once things started, Mario was not
impressing as he should be. While other character like Link,
Megaman, and Sephiroth were reaching sixty thousand votes, Mario had
his hands full with first round upset Morrigan. I was really stating
to doubt that my favorite plumber (who I have winning the entire
contest) could defeat Cloud, as he just seemed to overwhelm Mario in
every aspect. Things were looking grim, especially with Sephiroth's
win over fellow old-school videogame icon MegaMan, but somehow Mario
pulled through. After defeating Cloud, Cloud, his toughest
competition yet, he's managed to post the highest number of votes
yet in this contest.
Cloud of course, put up an equally
amazing show. He had a great first round, offing big names like Fox,
Pikachu, and Alucard with relative ease. He was winning against
Mario for a few hours, then managed to stay neck and neck with him
for the rest of the evening, but in the end, he was just 200 votes
shy of greatness. Like your stats show, he received more votes than
anyone else in this contest, outside of Mario. Wow.
This is
all a true testament to how amazing that match was. The two
contestants are now the top two highest vote getters, even though
they both finished with just 50% of the vote. The total was
an astounding 130000! I don't think a GameFaqs poll has ever seen
those kind of numbers, and it will be a hard press to beat that
total again.
But why all the votes? Well, obviously these two
were big names. And the vote totals had been rather inflated in the
last three matches. Whether the recently increased numbers were due
to the PA link, or just because competition was heating up, no one
is really sure. And lately some have said that these higher totals
were due to rampant cheating. But I don't think anyone was seriously
expecting 130000 votes. I believe most of these came from the
massive campaigns fans of each character launched, with the most
obvious being Mario's. The link from PlanetGameCube most likely
allowed Mario to win. Many were outraged at these campaigns, and
CJayC has spoken out against them. I personally think they're fair
game, but maybe that's just because Mario won ^_^.
I'll post
some more of my thoughts in a little bit.
--- Muse of
the Day: Why do you get on a bus, but get into a car? |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/27/2002 1:40:31 AM | Message
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Phew. Well, the website's been fully updated. I
figured the beginning of the fourth round was worthy of special
treatment (particularly considering what happened in the first
match), so I went ahead and updated all the sections instead of just
the usual few. That'll leave me some time tomorrow to finish fixing
up the menus and to take care of some other house cleaning type
business.
Just by glancing at the stats I can tell I'm going
to have a lot to talk about in the analysis. It's too bad I used up
all of my vocabularly on the previous 2 matches. :)
Anyway,
I'm not going to say anything more tonight. I think I've posted my
fair share of bytes for today already. I look forward to just
relaxing and reading the comments everyone else has
posted. --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/27/2002 1:43:08 AM | Message
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After that orgasm inducing match, it's boggling
to think that things are really just starting to get
tight.
Snake Vs Crono. Well, it looks like Crono's winning.
While I wouldn't count Snake out 100% yet, it'll be pretty tough to
overcome this large of a margin. This is going to be a real upset if
it happens. Snake had the 2nd highest odds, and stands to be the
only member of the elite five to be taken down by a character not in
the club. A lot of brackets will be destroyed after this
match. I know I'll lose eight points. I can't say I see why people
are so compelled to support Crono, but it's definitely safe to say
he's been wildly underestimated.
Regardless of whether Snake
makes a comeback or not, I seriously doubt either of the two can
defeat Mario in the next round. Crono will most likely put up a
decent fight, but I can't see him doing anymore than Cloud
did.
Link over Scorpion is extremely obvious. Scorpion had a
great run, but it's safe to say his train ends here.
Samus
over Sephiroth will most likely end in a Sephiroth win. Which would
not surprise many. Although his win over Megaman wasn't as
overwhelming as it could have been, Samus stands little chance.
Link VS Sephiroth, here's predicting, will be another close
match, but I really think Link can take it. Cloud is dead. And
although some would argue, I don't think Sephiroth is as big with
casual gamers as Cloud is. I don't know, this is probably the only
match left in the contest I'm undecided about.
Phew! Ok, that
was a lot. I hope you weren't too bored with my incoherent
ramblings. It's just that this topic stands as a beacon of light,
truth, and intelligence in the mindless (albeit entertaining) sea of
close minded flames, and I like to share what's going on in my
head.
More GREAT work Solar! You really should get
some award or something, way 2 go! --- Muse of the Day:
Why do you get on a bus, but get into a car? |
From: FaceLoran
| Posted: 8/27/2002 1:57:04 AM | Message
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I am thoroughly crushed that Crono has somehow
managed to defeat the great Solid Snake. I had him taking it all.
--- @xxxxxxxxxx[============================>
"Sometimes I amaze even myself!" -Han Solo, Star Wars: A New
Hope |
From: UncleUlty
| Posted: 8/27/2002 2:12:34 AM | Message
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I agree with all u said samberdog, i also hope
that this will be as big of an upset as u say...I need people to
start losing points and quick...I had cloud in the finals but if
most people have snake winning, and a lot having him go all the way,
i could have a chance to win.
I also think link has the
contest won,,,if he can get past seph.. If link goes up against
mario,,its fair to assume that all huge square fans and nintendo
haters will pick what to them is the lesser of 2 evils..Link.. also
many nintendo fans..myself included, like Link more than
mario..
My hopes on the semi finals...Crono beats Mario,,,if
he can pull this off,,it will help me a lot..I cant get points
anyhow..but if crono wins..it will shatter many peoples bracket and
bring them down to my level,, --- "You are in the presence of
Octopus Royalty" TEAM SNK |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/27/2002 2:22:13 AM | Message
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Random Thoughts (more coherent ones to come
tomorrow):
-I just don't know what to say about the vote
totals anymore. I'm beyond being amazed, frankly; I've got no idea
what to think.
-Crono has a shot at Mario, I think,
especially if he does get past Solid Snake (which is looking less
certain by the update, thank goodness for my bracket). Crono's
fanbase is very different from Cloud's; being on the SNES takes away
some of Mario's nostalgia votes, and Chrono Trigger seems more
widely respected than Final Fantasy 7. (FF7's proponents rank it
higher than CT...but CT is on more peoples' lists of great games.)
I'll take Mario over Cloud, but I'll take Crono over
either.
-Yesterday did indeed live up to the hype. The sheer
volume of votes was not half as amazing as the sheer volume of board
topics. (We are up to 300 pages, folks, and the Mario/Cloud wars
date back to page 145.) And yet...somehow, it didn't seem all
that exciting. Maybe the fifteen minute rule cut down on the
suspense; maybe the flames and rants rendering the board useless
unnerved me. Maybe I've just been disspirited by the idea of
cheaters. Whatever it was, the sheer numbers say it was great...but
it didn't feel great, somehow. I'm wondering if I'm the only
one feeling the same way.
Thanks, Jjukil |
From: MMXcalibur
| Posted: 8/27/2002 6:33:36 AM | Message
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Amazing. I give you all golden cookies...and
solarshadow....a BASKET o' GOLDEN COOKIES! You have done
excellent work all contest long. I'd just like to add my 2 cents
if it's all right. Calling the classic Mario/Cloud battle and the
future the way I saw/see it:
My take?
Well, for me,
Mega Man is gone. He fought a good fight vs a tough opponent on a
RPG-dominated site. I was a tad bit ticked that a legend in Mega
Man was ousted by a NPC over-rated villain in Sephiroth. But that's
my opinion.
Anyways, after Mega Man's defeat, I could just
feel FFVII support growing. I looked at the Mario/Cloud battle as
the breaking point for all old-skool gamers who couldn't understand
why FFVII characters were beating classic characters. Cloud would
win...I was sure of it. My theory was proven correct as I saw the
poll for the first time with a Cloud 700 vote lead. However, the
dark horse in all of the battle had to
be....planetgamecube.com. There attention giving news brief on
Mario swayed the contest in Mario's favor, no doubt. He came
back, took a lead..but strangely....it just stayed there....no Mario
jump to 1000 vote leads. The difference plopped at 50.15% and
stayed around that area. Well, either way, I wanted Mario to win
this. Mario was classic. He WAS video games. I liked FFVII,
and Cloud. But this was MARIO. So me (and my bracket:p) were
happy for Mario's win. Two characters from one game do not
deserve to be in the Final 4. From any game. Even MMX
games.
The future looks pretty strong in Mario's favor. He's
passed the one person to stop him from visiting the finals. Next
is a meeting with either Crono or Snake. And if Cloud and his FFVII
fanbase couldn't oust the king of gaming. I'm not sure either of
these two will.
Mario was very underrated. He was given no
shot at all. All the buzz was about Cloud and how he would pull out
a victory and head for the finals. However, now that he's pulled
thru, Mario has gone from a Square sacrificial goat to one of the
contest favorite's.
As for the bottom half of the
bracket.....Link and Scorpion is a no-brainer...my man Link will
*****-slap Scorpion. He had a good run. But Midway magic ends
here.
Sephiroth vs Samus is all Sephy. Samus has Sonic
fans, the anti-nintendo and FFVII fanbase all against her. She is
toast.
Link vs Sephiroth? Well, this is Mario vs
Cloud...ROUND 2. Im sure the result will be in Link's
favor. He is not as disliked as Mario. Why? NOt quite sure. He
never talks. (Crono) Has a sword (Sephy, Cloud). Old-skool (Legend
of Zelda). New skool (Ocarina of Time). He is a threat. And
Sephiroth is a bit lesser known than Cloud. Sephy and his cool
looks may not help him as much this time. Link can match that
stride for stride.
My final? Link vs Mario. But that's a
story Ill have to wait to
tell....right?
--- (>^_^)-(
()============<D <(0_o'^) -KIRBY
X-BUSTER! |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/27/2002 7:04:31 AM | Message
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I have to agree with the campaign for certain
characters being outrageous..i feel a lot more disappointed than neo
elf boy because I know that without all that advertising which no
doubt favored Mario, made it win. But i dont think its fair, i see
Mario fans very low as of now. They keep complaining they never
wanted to see 2 Square characters in the finals and they're
currently almost doing that trick but for Nintendo..thats really
being hypocrite and low. My fun from this contest has been fading
out since all those recent matches..i dont know if they got
legitimate wins over the others and it seriously bothers
me. --- "Did you really think something as simple such as the
end of the world was gonna do me in?" Sabin Anti-Mod Faction:1
Moderators:0 |
From: GoldSlime35
| Posted: 8/27/2002 2:13:19 PM | Message
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In case anyone cares, because the final match is
worth 32 points it is almost guaranteed that the top 50 will all
have picked the champion correctly.
I picked Mario to win but
now I think Link will, and my reasons are similar to those of
previous posters.
Good job on the stats. Keep up the good
work.
|
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/27/2002 4:03:12 PM | Message
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*bump*
Though I personally like both
Mario and Link, I do hope the final doesn't feature the two of them.
It would seem like such an anti-climax to have this come down to a
pair of Nintendo characters. Don't get me wrong; Cloud/Seph wouldn't
have been any more interesting.
That said, it could very well
happen. It all depends on a certain semi-final which people have
been looking at since the contest began, though one which we now
have far more information about. How will Link/Sephiroth compare to
Mario/Cloud? Will the Nintendo faction rally around Link with as
much dedication as they did Mario? Will Link's apparent lesser
number of haters come into play? Are there a significant number of
people who would vote Seph and not Cloud, or vice versa? What about
revenge votes from MegaMan supporters? Or a revenge campaign by the
FF7 crowd in response to the Planet Gamecube
incident?
*circles the 31st on the
calendar*
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your
massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
From: ReaPeR
xZ | Posted: 8/27/2002 4:13:42 PM | Message
Detail
|
Don't count Crono out yet. If Cloud can put up
such a fight against Mario, Crono certainly can. There are FAR less
haters of Crono than there were Cloud, I think people are
underestimating Crono still, and I think his chances to beat Mario
are very good. --- 08/25/02 R.I.P. MegaMan |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/27/2002 4:23:24 PM | Message
Detail
|
Well if there's anyone in this contest we're
underestimating, it definitely *would* be Crono. --- Muse
of the Day: Why is it good to be a Daddy's girl, but bad to be a
Momma's boy? |
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/27/2002 4:58:08 PM | Message
Detail
|
Agreed.
Unless Scorpion wins it. That'd
be hilarious.
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your
massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/27/2002 9:35:01 PM | Message
Detail
|
Wow, lots to read since I last visited, and I
agree with nearly all of it.
The final is going to be Mario v
Link. Definately Mario, IMO, and most probably Link. I REALLY
overestimated the FF7 fanboys, I'm just hoping they rally behind
Sephy now, so I can at least get the winner of the competition
right. Currently, he's my only semi finalist correct.
I had
the semi final between Snake (RIP in 3 hours), and Cloud, with Snake
making the final. There goes 32 votes just from the third round and
semi, completely ruining my chances of even a top 25% placing. I
knew I should of aimed for last place, I would of been coming equal
last with 4 points if I had of. I may be underestimating Scorpion
and Samus, but I'm fairly sure they will also be out of the
competition after this round.
As far as I can tell, I'll be
getting 8 more points for this competition, for a grand total of 78.
Absolutely pathetic.
Biggest surprises for me are Mario's
victory over Cloud, Snake's disappointing tournament - ending with a
loss to Crono, and the big one - the shear number of votes this poll
has been attracting. I thought my tiebreaker was a little low after
the second round (I had it as 31000ish, I thought it should of been
about 15000 higher), now I realise the winner will probably get
close to 80000 votes. This is more than double the amount of votes
cast in regular polls, I factored in a slight increase, but not this
much. I think its the advertising at other sites now that is
attracting the votes, and not multiple voting as I originally
suspected, but the numbers are still pretty massive.
Great
stats still, and its good to not care in the slightest any more who
wins. My money's on Link, but if I had to choose anyone out of the
remaining bunch, I'd pick Mario, the most recognised gaming icon
worldwide. Should be an interesting week or so
anyway. --- Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a
stupid question", has obviously never visited this board. |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/27/2002 10:31:37 PM | Message
Detail
|
And thus, the storm did calm. With the cries of
foul during Mario vs. Cloud slowly drifting out with the tides, and
the futile rally topics for Snake a mere whisper in comparison, one
can only wonder one thing:
...why, oh WHY did I choose Snake
to win this thing!? >_<
Well, okay, I'm sure that's not
what...most of you are wondering. ;)
Well, it's a day later,
and I still find myself too dumbfounded over the Mario/Cloud affair
to make any decent analysis on it. The numbers alone can do that to
you, I think. But after thinking on it for a while, I think Mario
probably deserved this victory. Backed up by an overwhelming
campaign that included planetgamecube.com, vgmusic.com, and several
other huge large websites outside of Gamefaqs entirely, Mario
ultimately proved that he has the bigger fanbase...or at least the
more dedicated one. And with the massive numbers of Squaresoft fans
that come to this site (and the huge amount of support topics for
Cloud on this board), the latter may actually be more
impressive.
As for the rest of the tournament, there are
definitely some exciting matches...but the rest of the quarters are
sadly not among them. The tourney's biggest underdog, Crono, is
polishing off Snake as we speak, and there's little doubt Link will
make much shorter work of Scorpion. To me, there's even less doubt
that Sephiroth will utterly destroy the tainted Samus; at this
point, I wouldn't be surprised if this was a bigger blowout than
Link vs. Scorpion. =/
Once we make it to the semis, though,
the warzone will return. I sincerely believe that Mario vs. Crono
will be Mario vs. Cloud Take Two, with the same close margin and
maybe even the same astrological numbers of that contest. As I said
earlier, Crono's fanbase could very well be bigger than Cloud's,
although it may be less intense. I still predict Mario will take the
win and head into the finals, but I'll never count Crono out
again.
Still, that will probably be the least volatile
matchup of the final three, as day two pits Sephiroth against Link.
FF7 fans are no doubt dying for revenge after yesterday's narrow
loss, and Link will definitely feel their wrath, on the boards and
in the polls. Of course, if any RPG series can unseat Final Fantasy
in the U.S., it's The Legend of Zelda, and Link has many of the same
advantages Mario had but with the added bonus of RPG roots. Still, I
look for Sephiroth to take this one by the closest of margins (well,
maybe not the closest...I don't think we'll ever top 37
votes).
Finally, on September 1st, the contest ends with
Mario vs. Sephiroth. Needless to say, this will be a bloodbath. All
the tensions of Mario vs. Cloud will come back again, and we may
actually get MORE votes here than we did for that contest. But this
match won't be an exact duplicate of MVC, for one simple reason:
Cloud is not Sephiroth. To me, Sephiroth has always been the most
popular character of FF7, or maybe FF altogether. He has a lot of
"cool" qualities Cloud's missing, and he's a villain--one
responsible for one of the most memorable scenes in gaming. It'll be
a bloody fight, and it could easily come down to the wire again, but
I see Sephiroth beating Mario and winning this tournament. (Of
course, I saw Snake beating Mario AND Sephiroth, so my predictions
of close matches aren't exactly flawless. =P )
The finals
match I'm really rooting for, though, is Crono vs. Sephiroth. With
Samus's imminent demise, Crono will be my favorite character left in
the tournament, and I'd love to see him avenge her loss and take
down the evil that is Sephiroth. ~_^
Thanks, Jjukil |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/27/2002 11:56:55 PM | Message
Detail
|
Wow, there's some really good stuff here. What
an enjoyable read.
I started writing down some thoughts on
the recent events but I just deleted them because they simply
weren't coming together. Exhaustion has taken its toll and I'm
having trouble forming coherent thoughts. So I'll save it, even
though it may not be as meaningful later on. I also didn't manage to
do the usual analysis today, and I'm not going to be able to now.
Sorry about that. Fortunately there's been plenty of good analysis
posted already. I'll get into the numbers side of it tomorrow
(hopefully). --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/28/2002 12:10:39 AM | Message
Detail
|
"The numbers alone can do that to you, I think.
But after thinking on it for a while, I
think...."
...pay no attention to this and the
other incoherencies in my posts from the last two days. I promise,
they're not the norm. O_o;;
Actually, I'm starting to think a
small part of me has gone totally mad. XD
Thanks,
Jjukil |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/28/2002 12:26:48 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Stats:
5 - Crono (33:1)
- 52517 / 52.93% (99214) - 2452 / 14.6% 2 -
Solid Snake (8:1) - 46697 / 47.07%
(99214)
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Closest
Matches (difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the
Hedgehog 49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% -
(0.04%) 2) (iv) Mario 50.11% vs. Cloud Strife
49.89% - (0.22%) 3) (iii) Mega Man 49.49%
vs. Sephiroth 50.51% - (1.02%) 4) (ii) Donkey Kong
51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%) 5)
Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% -
(5.14%) 6) (iv) Crono 52.93% vs. Solid Snake
47.07% - (5.86%) 7) Jill Valentine 53.34%
vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%) 8) Alucard 54.32%
vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%) 9)
Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% -
(8.82%) 10) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield
44.54% - (10.92%)
Top 10 Smallest Vote
Gaps (difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34) 2) (iv)
Mario 64990 vs. Cloud Strife 64713 -
(277) 3) (iii) Mega Man 48185 vs. Sephiroth
49172 - (987) 4) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs.
Aya Brea 30478 - (1320) 5) Strider Hiryu
30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001) 6) Jill
Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702) 7)
Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 -
(4975) 8) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower
28190 - (5326) 9) (iv) Crono 52517 vs. Solid
Snake 46697 - (5820) 10) Tidus 35004 vs.
Claire Redfield 28117 - (6887)
Top 10
Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)
1) (iv) Mario vs.
Cloud Strife - 129703 2) (iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake -
99214 3) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357 4)
(iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273 5) (iii) Sonic the
Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912 6) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud
Strife - 75371 7) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake -
75247 8) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife -
74365 9) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059 10)
Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
Top 10
Most Impressive Losers (by votes)
1) (iv) Cloud Strife -
64713 2) (iii) Mega Man - 48185 3) (iv) Solid
Snake - 46697 4) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog -
41939 5) Kirby - 32837 6) (iii) Aeris -
32702 7) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478 8) (iii) Pac-Man
- 28936 9) (ii) Ryu - 28630 10) Miles "Tails"
Prower - 28190
Top 10 Hardest Matches to
Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the
winner)
1) (iv) Crono 14.6% vs. Solid Snake 2)
(iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3% 3) (ii) Alucard
28.8% vs. Duke Nukem 4) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus
Aran 31.8% 5) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine
32.5% 6) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono 33.1% 7) (ii)
Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne 8) Morrigan Aensland
42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7% 9) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs.
Tina Armstrong 43.7% 10) (iv) Mario 44.2% vs. Cloud
Strife
--- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/28/2002 12:31:00 AM | Message
Detail
|
Glad to see I wasn't the only one to severely
underestimate Crono.
I only managed to get the stats portions
of the website updated. The rest is beyond me at this point. Sorry
again. Now sleep. --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/28/2002 12:54:55 PM | Message
Detail
|
I hate Crono. He's cost me 14 points. NO MORE
WINNING CRONO!
I don't know where he's getting all this
support from, I mean, c'mon! Snake! Crono obviously has more force
behind him than the gross majority of us predicted. Still though,
will he be able to beat Mario? Maybe. But I hope not. We'll just
have to wait and see.
I'm definitely glad Link is
slaughtering Scorpion as easily as he is. I know he's getting some
support as the ultimate underdog, but it's clear that he really just
doesn't belong in the fourth round. This looks good for Link who
*hopefully* can keep on blazing past Sephiroth to the
finals.
I don't think Samus will be as big of an opponent as
Megaman was. My prediction's 60/40 for Sephie. --- Muse of
the Day: Why is it good to be a Daddy's girl, but bad to be a
Momma's boy? |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/28/2002 12:56:11 PM | Message
Detail
|
Bonus Stat:
The scoring if you'd followed
the seeding precisely would look like this:
1 Mario - 1pt -
2pts - 4pts - 8pts 2 Cloud - 1pt - 2pts - 4pts 3 Duke - 1pt -
0pts 4 DK - 1pt - 2pts 5 Terry - 0pts 6 Alucard - 1pt 7
Pikachu - 1pt 8 Spyro - 0pts
1 Lara - 1pt - 2pts - 0pts -
0pts 2 Snake - 1pt - 2pts - 4 pts 3 Gordon - 0pts - 0pts 4
Dante - 1pt - 0pts 5 Crono - 1pt 6 Kasumi - 0pts 7 Knuckles
- 1pt 8 Ryo Hazuki - 1pt
1 Pac-Man - 1pt - 2pts - 0pts -
0pts 2 Link - 1pt - 2pts - 4pts 3 Jill - 1pt - 2pts 4 Max -
1pt - 0pts 5 Scorpion - 1pt 6 Bomberman - 1pt 7 Strider -
1pt 8 Abe - 0pts
1 Sonic - 1pt - 2pts - 0pts - 0pts 2
Crash - 1pt - 0pts - 0pts 3 Sam - 1pt - 0pts 4 Ryu - 1pt -
0pts 5 Samus Aran - 1pt 6 Mega Man - 1pt 7 Sephiroth -
1pt 8 Tidus - 1pt
First Round - 27pts Second Round -
20pts Third Round - 16pts Fourth Round - 8 pts Grand
Total - 71 pts
So, 63 points at the end of the third
round, 71 at the end of the fourth. Since you only needed 60 points
to be in the majority at the end of the third round, that's not too
bad for not having to think about it. :) With Mario's latest win
you'd be up to 71, and with the rest of the number 1 seeds already
out of the tournament that's going to be the final total based on
seeding alone. You're not going to win any prizes with a score like
that, but it will probably keep you in the top half of the ranking
(but just barely). --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/28/2002 2:53:41 PM | Message
Detail
|
Website's been updated and there's a new poll to
vote in (thanks to javajim for the suggestion). I'll be back with
more later.
Still can't believe Snake
lost... --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/28/2002 7:39:24 PM | Message
Detail
|
I wanted to offer some quick thoughts on the
"campaigning" issue.
As I've mentioned a couple times, I'm
not a fan of campaigning in the least. It may not actually be
considered cheating, but I feel that securing a block of votes for a
specific character goes against the spirit of the contest. The
intention was to find out the most popular character according to
GameFAQs visitors. This is what we took into account when making our
brackets. Sure anyone can visit the site, but when a group of people
are stopping by simply to vote, and when these people are
predisposed towards a certain character, that introduces
unpredictable variables into the contest and can harm those entrants
who more accurately predicted the will of the regular GameFAQs
voters. For instance, I predicted that Mario would win, but if I
underestimated the popularity of Cloud on this site then I'd rather
be punished for that by losing the match than to have a bunch of
campaigning bring about the win for my character. Of course, I'm not
trying to say that campaigning was definitely the reason Mario won.
I will not claim any certainties with regards to this contest. The
link on Planet GameCube and others sites no doubt helped him, but
links promoting Cloud appeared on Final Fantasy Online (apparently)
and additional sites, so there's no way to be certain which group of
campaigning had the bigger effect (although I suspect it might be
the Mario side).
Of course, it's hard for me to genuinely be
disappointed with Mario's victory, even if it might have been won by
campaigning. I can't really say I wasn't happy to see him win. But
if the poll was tainted by campaigning then it would be a shame. Did
I really deserve the perfect North Division? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe
NeoElfboy deserved it. I would have rather known for
sure.
Anyway, my biggest problem with campaigning is the
motivation of those who do it. No one who campaigns is interested in
a balanced poll, they simply want a certain character to win, and
it's usually for selfish reasons. People want to get support for
Mario because it helps their bracket; people want to get support for
Cloud so they can gloat on the board; people want to get support for
Mega Man because they hate Final Fantasy. It's never about improving
the contest or gaining attention for the site, it's always about
making their character win for their own reasons. And that's what
really bothers me about it. --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: ncrdrg
| Posted: 8/28/2002 8:32:09 PM | Message
Detail
|
From what i know, mario had had more advertising
than cloud..and playonline has no link..one guy told me than he had
not found links on major cloud fans websites, nor playonline. I
checked Playonline.com...no link at all. Must be a rumor you heard.
It isnt true unless someone gives me a link to to proof. But
Planetgamecube is true..and its probably true for other mario sites
since he's known as the biggest icon of gaming while cloud loss to
mario would be globally would be found acceptable. IMO, advertising
favored Mario more than Cloud. If you think about it..Link getting
this high in votes is probably also a result of previous
advertising. I rather found on playonline people trying to incite
people to vote for Cloud on the boards! Not a direct link by the
staff like Planetgamecube.
On another subject..It would be
interesting to see Crono vs Link or Crono vs Sephiroth in the
finals. Square most underestimated vs either Nintendo 2nd biggest
icon or PSX rpg character (or old vs new). I would be the 1st one to
disgusted by a Nintendo only finals. I seriously hope it wont
happen..since it wouldnt represent gamefaqs normal visitors and
users. --- "Britney songs are like Final Fantasy, evryone
plays it, yet diss it in public" RamzaFX |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/28/2002 8:56:59 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some Mario vs. Cloud
analysis.
Wow.
Well, this was supposed to be the
biggest and most important battle of the tournament so far, and it
certainly lived up to its billing. Where to begin?
It's a
shame this match had to happen so soon, as it was definitely worthy
of being the final. The battle featured 2 supremely popular
characters, possessed more drama than any previous match, had
numerous lead changes throughout the entire day, and it's outcome
was uncertain right up until midnight. You couldn't really ask for
more than that. Sonic/Samus had a slightly more exciting finish, but
other than that this battle was the most thrilling in every
category.
The number of votes cast in this poll was a
phenomenal 129703. It easily surpassed the 100000 mark, an amount
few thought could actually be reached. And it absolutely crushed any
previous poll's total by over 30000 votes. Absolutely amazing. Of
course, some of those votes are likely the result of cheating, but
there is no evidence to suggest that the majority of them were not
legitimate. Other factors for the high vote total include the
massive campaigning that was done to rally support for the
characters (links to GameFAQs apparently appeared on both
planetgamecube.com and ffonline.com, as well as other sites), and
the incredibly high profile nature of the battle. There's hardly
anyone who doesn't have a strong opinion on 1 of these 2 characters,
so people had more motivation than ever to vote in the
poll.
The next astonishing fact is the individual vote totals
achieved by Mario and Cloud. Mario set a new record with 64990
votes, and Cloud placed an unbelievable 2nd on the highest vote
getters list with 64713 (both eclipsed Mega Man's previous high of
63000 votes). I never thought I'd have to update the Top 10 Biggest
Vote Getters list twice for the same match. Well, it looks like
those of us worried about the support for Mario needn't worry any
more. All memory of his uninspired performances in the previous
rounds has been erased by this match. He's now the man to beat.
Cloud didn't do so badly himself (obviously). His nearly 65000 votes
in a losing effort places him securely atop the Most Impressive
Losers list, and proves that he is truly one of the most popular
characters in video game history. The loss was the first time he
managed to break 60000 votes, but he is now the only 4-time member
of 50000 vote club (although Link will join him shortly). Not bad at
all. It's a shame he had to face off against Mario so
soon.
(continued) |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/28/2002 8:57:04 PM | Message
Detail
|
With all of the other excitement I haven't
really conveyed just how amazingly close this battle was yet. Mario
blasted out to an early lead in the first hour, holding the widest
margin of the entire poll with about 55% of the vote. The gap didn't
last long as Cloud quickly began to close it. Soon enough it had
dwindled to nothing and the fierce battle for the lead began. After
a bit of jockeying Cloud managed to get out in front by a slim
margin, which he managed to pad a little and then hold for the rest
of the morning. But by mid-afternoon the comeback was on (as was the
campaigning) and Mario quickly caught up and regained the lead. But
no lead was safe in this battle. The lead continued to go back and
forth for the rest of the day, with neither character able to gain a
clear advantage. The margin was razor thin and the excitement was
palpable. But with 1 hour left and after a record number of lead
changes, Mario finally got back in front to stay. As the poll closed
Mario held one of the biggest leads of the evening, a mere 0.22%
(277 votes). It was a lot of fun to watch. This was the 2nd closest
battle of the tournament in both percentage and votes, which is
pretty impressive considering the total number of votes that were
cast. Doesn't get much better than this.
Considering the
extreme nature of the other numbers, the fact that the match ranked
as the 9th hardest battle to predict is a little boring by
comparison. 44.2% of the entrants got it right, which isn't
surprising when considering the previous numbers. 72.5% had Mario
making it this far, with most choosing him to win again. Many also
had Cloud in this match, and since their odds are so close it's not
surprising to see the percentage split like that. Indeed, out of an
extraordinary match this is the one stat that isn't.
Next up
for Mario will be a tough battle against Crono. Mario has to be
considered the favorite to win, but Crono pulled off an upset
against Snake and has the potential to do it again. It could be
another epic match. --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/29/2002 12:02:16 AM | Message
Detail
|
Good point about Mario becoming the man to beat,
Solar. He was losing "favorite" status after his first two matches,
but it's obviously back in full force now.
*notes the current
results of Samus/Sephiroth, which stand at 901 to 857 in Samus's
favor*
I've never been more glad to be utterly wrong about
one of these predictions. ^_^
Thanks, Jjukil |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/29/2002 12:09:39 AM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Crono vs. Snake analysis.
In
the biggest upset of the tournament so far, underdog Crono has
defeated the heavily favored Solid Snake. Snake came into the
tournament with the 2nd highest odds (8:1, behind only Mario) and
was expected to have a real shot at winning it all.
So, for
the 2nd day in a row one of the "elite five" has fallen. However, it
looks like Snake will be the only member of that club not to be
defeated by one of the others. Crono's no slouch in the odds
department as he is ranked number 6, but Snake was 4 times as likely
to win, based on the odds alone.
Snake's loss is definitely a
surprise, but it wasn't without its warning signs. Although it's
true he had tougher opponents than some, Snake was never able to put
up the kind of numbers that would indicate he deserved his place
among the "elite five". Even against Knuckles and Squall he could
only manage 60-65% of the vote, and not once did he break the 50000
vote mark. His highest spot on the biggest vote getters list is
22nd. Still, Mario underperformed in his opening rounds and then
came through in the big match, so there was hope for Snake yet.
However, he was up against the overachieving Crono, who had been
dominating in victories against Simon Belmont, Dante, and Lara
Croft. Crono's average vote take was over 70% versus Snake's measly
60%. Crono had also broken the 50000 vote barrier once and come very
close a second time. The odds favored Snake but past performance was
clearly in Crono's favor. There's also a chance that Cloud's battle
aided Crono. Perhaps those who showed up to support Cloud stuck
around to vote for Crono, or perhaps with the loss of one major
Square RPG hero came renewed support for the surviving character.
Either way, in the end Crono took the win in a close battle that
lacked any real drama.
Not that it wasn't a popular battle,
of course. With just shy of 100000 votes cast (99214 to be exact),
it ranks as the 2nd most popular poll yet. And as the 6th closest
match (percentagewise) it would normally have really been one worth
talking about - if we hadn't been spoiled by the previous 3
matches.
But that's not to say this match didn't have it's
significant and notable qualities. After all, it set a new record as
the hardest match to predict of the tournament. A scant 14.6% of the
contest entrants picked Crono to make it to the final four. Only
33.1% had him beating Ms. Croft, so only about half of those thought
he could go on to cut down Snake as well. He has definitely being
surprising a bunch of us as the has tournament progressed. 67.5% had
Snake getting this far, and it's probable that more than half of
them expected Snake to move on. So it's almost certain that we have
another prediction based upset, in that more people picked Snake
than Crono to win. Crono definitely wreaked some havoc with a lot of
brackets. This could be the major turning point in the contest for
the eventual winners.
Next up for Crono is a battle against
contest-favorite Mario. Mario's got the edge and he definitely won't
be as easy an opponent as Snake, but Crono has defied the odds and
surprised us before, so this could make for a very interesting and
hair-raising match. And since it marks the 1,000th GameFAQs poll,
let's hope it's a good one. --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/29/2002 12:13:07 AM | Message
Detail
|
I can't believe Sephiroth is losing to Samus. I
never would have seen that coming. My poor bracket. :(
I also
can't believe another round is coming to an end. This one really
seemed to fly by. ;) --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/29/2002 12:33:49 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
5 - Scorpion (150:1) -
21991 / 24.02% (91535) 2 - Link (9:1) -
69544 / 75.98% (91535) - 9557 /
57.0%
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Biggest Vote
Gaps (difference in brackets)
1) Mega Man 63039
vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782) 2) (ii) Mega Man
60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500) 3)
Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 -
(52765) 4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 -
(48433) 5) (iv) Scorpion 21991 vs. Link
69544 - (47553) 6) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs.
Cloud Strife 59926 - (44481) 7) Sonic the Hedgehog
53023 vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731) 8)
(ii) Sephiroth 53956 vs. Crash Bandicoot 12235 -
(41721) 9) (iii) Mario 52333 vs. Donkey Kong
11507 - (40826) 10) (iii) Jill Valentine
23342 vs. Link 61931 -
(38589)
Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote
totals)
1) (iv) Mario vs. Cloud Strife - 129703 2)
(iv) Crono vs. Solid Snake - 99214 3) (iii) Mega Man vs.
Sephiroth - 97357 4) (iv) Scorpion vs. Link -
91535 5) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link -
85273 6) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran -
83912 7) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371 8) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247 9)
(iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365 10) (iii) Lara
Croft vs. Crono - 74059
Top 10 Biggest Vote
Getters
1) (iv) Link - 69544 2) (iv) Mario -
64990 3) (iv) Cloud Strife - 64713 4) Mega Man -
63039 5) (iii) Link - 61931 6) Sephiroth -
61367 7) (ii) Mega Man - 60914 8) (ii) Cloud
Strife - 59926 9) Link - 59509 10) Cloud Strife
- 54643
--- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Old
Master Q | Posted: 8/29/2002 12:38:44 AM | Message
Detail
|
the gap is closing........
seems like
Sephiroth likes being behind for the first few hours then making his
comeback later one (he did that with megaman ^_^)
but if he's
struggling with Samus, he can kiss his chances against Link
goodbye --- A person is only as big as the things that make
him angry. |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/29/2002 12:43:50 AM | Message
Detail
|
While solarshadow disagrees, I personally think
campaigning for your character is a great idea.
The
environment here at Gamefaqs is a strange one. There are not many
other places on the net that house so many diehard RPG fans. I
wouldn't be the first to note that if this contest was held on a
different website, chances are more mainstream characters like
Sonic, Crash, and Lara would do much better than they have in this
contest. But at Gamefaqs, RPG characters have the obvious edge. I
don't think there's many other websites with a viewing population
that would vote Crono over Snake. In the eyes of a casual gamer, the
silent hero, of an archaic SNES RPG, would not stand a chance
against the likes of a modern day bad-ass like Snake, the star of
two of the most popular games released in the last five
years.
Because of this less mainstream tilt, giants of the
videogame industry, recognizable to everyone, like Mario and Sonic,
are taken down several notches. While, moody, angst ridden spiky
haired anti-heroes of Squaresoft are elevated to a level of power
and influence they would not normally have. Someone like Mario, who
seems to lack the round personality of someone like Cloud, is at a
disadvantage with many RPG fans, who value story and character over
most other things in videogames. I believe that if the vote was
limited only to Gamefaqers, then Cloud would have won.
But he
didn't because it isn't. If Mario IS more popular everywhere
else on the net, then Mario fans have the responsibility to
use that to their advantage, and to help their boy win. Against
someone as mighty as Cloud, Mario does not have enough voters on
Gamefaqs to win. That's because most Mario fans don't hang around
Gamefaqs, probably because as many people say, FAQs aren't really
required for Mario games, so a Mario fan would have no need to visit
Gamefaqs. That's why Mario was not blowing the competition away the
first three rounds. There was no need to call for outside help. Only
when Mario was in trouble, was backup rounded up to help Nintendo's
mascot prevail.
Informing people who would otherwise not know
about this contest, and even a Nintendo site suggesting that you
vote for Nintendo's mascot was perfectly fair play. This contest is
open to everyone, and everyone is allowed to vote. Mario has great
resources through out the internet community, and there's nothing
wrong with tapping into them. Increased visits and votes equals more
hits and money for CJayC, and a more accuarate poll result. If Cloud
was truly more popular, than he would have had better campaign
support and would have won his match. Campaigning is fair game, and
is just another thing to factor into your bracket if you want to be
successful.
--- Muse of the Day: How can something
be new and improved, if it's new, than how can it be improved
on? |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/29/2002 12:45:04 AM | Message
Detail
|
but if he's struggling with Samus, he can
kiss his chances against Link goodbye
Too true. The
all-Nintendo final is looking more and more like a reality. Man, the
FF fanboys are going to go nuts. =P --- Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/29/2002 1:04:42 AM | Message
Detail
|
I'd agree with you, Samberdog, if I felt that
the campaigning was equal.
As it is, it's just skewing
things. It's making things GameFAQs + Nintendo sites. And GameFAQs
has biases, to be sure... but those pale in comparison to a site
dedicated to a single company. Originally, this Contest was going to
decide who was the most popular according to the users of
GameFAQs. Now the pool is far more random, and we really won't
learn much of anything, except perhaps which side is more
fanatical.
Oh, well. We could be in for a major anti-climax,
but this has still been a lot of
fun.
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/29/2002 1:04:52 AM | Message
Detail
|
Samberdog: Well, I do agree with most of what
you've said, but I just don't think the sort of campaigning we've
seen was in the spirit of the contest. I've got no problem if you
round up your friends, but when an army of voters comes from another
site for the sole reason of rocking the vote, then it becomes
problematic. There's no way to know which major sites will be
willing to support certain characters, so it would be very difficult
to account for campaigning votes when making a bracket. It becomes
much more of a guessing game than one rewarding astute predictions.
At least, that's how I see it. Adding variety to the voting pool
will help make the poll better representitive of the gaming public,
but the results were never going to represent the majority of gamers
anyway so it's not going to solve that problem. It will just make it
harder to know which kinds of fans are going to vote in which polls.
I mean, will PGC support Mario again in the semi-finals and finals,
or is a victory over Cloud enough? Just seems like the polls are now
about which "side" can find the most supporters, not which character
is actually more popular with GameFAQs visitors.
P.S.
Confidential to Samberdog: But thanks for the Mario win anyway.
;) --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/29/2002 1:08:07 AM | Message
Detail
|
Wow. They're dead even. Samus was losing by two
last round and now she's only behind by one. I hope Sephiroth
wins, mostly for that extra eight points, but man it's close. This
was another serious case of severe over/underestimation. Good
job Samus, but I still think Sephiroth can squeak by with a
win.
Either way, Link will absolutely own the winner next
round. Go Link! Pity he couldn't have gotten 70000
votes.
--- I've been SHINE GOTTEN
!! Shine Count: 5 |
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/29/2002 1:24:45 AM | Message
Detail
|
Hmm... time for some usual reflective
thoughts/looking ahead.
Well, I won't call Samus/Sephiroth
yet. I have a feeling Sephiroth will win, but I sure as hell won't
count on that. No close match has gone against Nintendo
yet...
Let's say Seph survives. Next is Link/Sephiroth. If
you're a Square fan, you'd better pray the second Sephiroth theory I
presented after his victory over Mega is correct, or he's probably
gone... Link's more popular than Samus, right?
But what if
Samus wins? I didn't think it would happen due to Sonic revenge
votes, but those just don't appear to be materialising at all. It
appears that perhaps the revenge vote just isn't much of a factor,
after all.
Samus/Link... interesting. On the surface, one is
inclined to favour Link, based on the fact that Zelda has been big
in recent years, but one has to go back to 1994 to find Samus'
latest effort (don't even bother with SSB).
But... call me
crazy... but if that happens, I think Samus will win.
Reasons?
1. For the embittered Square fanatics, she
represents the lesser of Nintendo's evils. 2. The tremendous
amount of respect for the Metroid games, particularly Super Metroid
(you know, the best-game-of-all-time jazz that several major video
game reviewers have blessed it with) 3. TJF. Figuratively, that
is. I know I love Samus for what she represents as far as female
characters go, and I also know many others like me. A little girl
power could propel her to victory.
As I said, call me crazy.
I'm probably almost the only one predicting this. But I really do
give Samus the edge if it comes to it.
Though I give Link the
edge over Sephiroth, and Seph a (slight) edge over Samus at this
point... so overall, I'd say the Mario/Link final is the most likely
one.
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/29/2002 1:44:15 AM | Message
Detail
|
I'm glad we can disagree without resorting to
rampant flaming.
I suppose outside campaigns don't bother me
because I've never really thought of this contest to be about the
popularity of characters according to Gamefaqs users, but just a
popularity contest period. The internet is all about communication,
reaching out and community. I hate to say it, but if this contest
was meant to be Gamefaqs only, then steps should have been made to
ensure that happened.
The extra amount of votes one can get
from campaigning for their character, is proportionate to the
character's popularity. If the characters are of equal popularity
than they should have an equal amount of votes, and they should also
be able to acquire an equal number of campaign votes. If Cloud was
as popular as Mario, than he would have gotten more campaign votes.
If he can't, then that just shows us that Mario is more popular, and
thus deserves to win.
A Mario VS Link final would be great,
in my opinion. By then we would have had all the Square VS Nintendo
stuff over with, and a Nintendo fanboy's (me :D) two favorite
characters duking it out to win it all would be
awesome.
Sorry if this post seems to reply mostly to
NeoElfBoy's post, but both he and solar brought up the main points
of this being a Gamefaqs affair only.
--- I've been
SHINE GOTTEN !! Shine Count: 5 |
From: GoldSlime35
| Posted: 8/29/2002 1:44:47 AM | Message
Detail
|
I hope that it is a Mario/Link final because
that is what I picked. I was one of the few people who picked Crono
to win the east. That happened to be my best division in which I won
every match except for picking Gordon to win the first two rounds.
The funny thing about that is that of the four divisions, the east
is the division in which I knew the least about its
participants.
Additional stat: Mario is the only character to
increase his/her vote total in each round. |
From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/29/2002 1:54:51 AM | Message
Detail
|
NeoElfboy: You're crazy. :)
Samus and
Crono have really turned out to be the darkhorses of this contest,
so I guess all bets are off when it comes to them. But even still I
can't imagine Samus beating Link. I just can't. It would be
interesting if it came down to Samus vs. Crono though (best game of
all-time vs. best RPG of all-time?).
Actually, after
reassessing my feelings I'm starting to think Link is the favorite
to win it all. While he hasn't had the toughest of opponents so far,
it's also true that he hasn't failed to impress in any of his 4
matches. And who's left that can stop him? Maybe Sephiroth, maybe...
Mario?
GoldSlime35: That's a very interesting point.
And after Mario's record-setting performance last round, can he
continue to go up from here? If he did his finals total would be
amazing...
Anyway, the website's been fully updated (easier
to do with a boring match) and a new poll went up earlier today (for
those who didn't see it). It looks like Sephiroth's making a
comeback, so this could be another very interesting match throughout
the entire day. Well, at least we had one day to relax.
:)
Here's an interesting tidbit. The second half of my
Mario/Cloud analysis was my 100th post in this topic. Wow. If that
isn't deserving of some kind of "gratuitous bump award" I don't know
what is. ;) --- Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/29/2002 5:29:22 AM | Message
Detail
|
Samberdog:
Heh. It's a rare occasion when
anyone on this Board admits to being a fanboy. It's an even rarer
occasion when that person is civil and offers well thought-out
posts. I love this topic. ^_^
I have several problems with
campaigning, though. One of which is, even if both sides are eqally
dedicated, Mario fans have an advantage. Mario is a corporate icon.
Any site with a vested interest in a certain corporation is likely
to officially support such an icon. Cloud, of course, is not a
corporate icon, nor is Sephiroth, or any other Square character.
Square has no icons. Similarly (though it didn't come up), Solid
Snake is not an icon for Konami, even if he is the star of their
most successful series (in North America). When Konami markets
"Solid Snake Tennis" or Square makes "Sephiroth Golf" we'd have
other icons, but until then, it really is just Mario. He is more
than just a character. He IS Nintendo. When you think Nintendo, you
think of the man in red.
Does this make him more popular?
I'll admit it could be argued that the fact that Mario is an icon in
addition to his being a character justifies the fact that he is
easier to campaign for and thence the fact that he gets more votes.
But you won't see me actually support that line of reasoning any
time soon.
Another problem with campaigning is how polarising
it is. When you start campaigning, you are saying, whether you like
it or not, that you mean business when it comes to your character
winning. It's like an unofficial declaration of war. And as soon as
there is a "war" mentality going on, people stop considering who is
actually their favourite and start thinking about which "side" any
given character is on. Block-voting for a single company's
characters (be that Square or Nintendo) isn't what this contest
should be about.
I'm not saying this polarisation is
resulting in matches being changed. And if they are being changed,
I'm not sure who stands to be helped. But all the numbers seem
potentially tainted, now. Did Crono benefit from disappointed Cloud
voters turning to the next-best spiky-haired Square alternative? Did
Scorpion benefit from anti-Link votes by vengeful Square fanboys?
Will Mario fans who never even played Metroid vote Samus to kill off
that other wretched FF7 character? It becomes harder to judge
accurately how relatively popular the characters are... which, in
the end, undoes one of the main purposes of the Contest.
One
last thing to consider... if a major Final Fantasy site had put up a
large "vote for Cloud" link, and PGC had not put up one for Mario...
if Mario had led with about 1000 votes halfway through the day, only
to have that lead disappear... in short, had the situation being
reversed as completely as symmetry allows, would you still feel the
same way? This isn't intended as a rhetorical question. Pause for a
moment and think about it.
~NeoElfboy --- "Sometimes I
think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they
fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM <VetSCCer> |
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