| FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest
(Updated Nightly) |
| | Page 4 of 9 | | |
| From: Yuffie
4 Life | Posted: 8/24/2002 12:10:57 PM | Message
Detail
|
Third Place Poll ends in 4 hours (4 GF Time).
Just an update. MMXcalibur and solarshadow are tied at 18. Vote
here:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=4017889
---
Megaplayers. Back to my original sig. Supporting
Samus, Mega Man, Link, and Snake throughout.
Record: 44-10 (68
pts.) Includes Jill/Link. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/24/2002 1:30:30 PM | Message
Detail
|
Glad to see the next match is up, and also
glad to see it's one that, as of right now, can't yet be called. As
this is an auto-loss for me, I am glad that either way it goes,
it'll screw up a lot of people. Though I'm stilling pulling for
Samus.
That sums up my feelings almost exactly. Aya vs.
DK was stressful because I had points on the line (one of the first
2 point matches even). But with an automatic loss this time I can
just sit back and enjoy the fun. I voted for Samus but I'll also be
happy if Sonic wins, so this match won't disappoint me no matter
what the outcome. That's a pretty good feeling to have for once.
:)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Cecil
XIX | Posted: 8/24/2002 2:06:46 PM | Message
Detail
|
bump.
---
- Cecil The Nineteenth.
Really. |
| From: JordanM85
| Posted: 8/24/2002 2:09:55 PM | Message
Detail
|
| very cool |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/24/2002 10:43:04 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some brief Jill vs. Link analysis.
Well,
this was a bit of a blowout, as predicted. The 18th biggest blowout
of the tournament so far, which is not too big but it was certainly
not a difficult win for Link. And I'd say the size of the win is
significant, considering that Jill was able to take down some
popular characters like Bomberman and particularly Kirby. This was
Link's first real chance to show his strength, and I'd say he's
looking strong.
One important note to make: This match
featured an unusually high number of voters. There are two main
reasons for this. First of all, a link to the contest from
Penny-Arcade was responsible for a swell in the votes. Secondly, the
poll was left open for nearly 3 hours longer than most (closing
sometime after 2:30AM CST). The combination of these 2 factors is
the reason for the aberrant vote totals. So if you're a fan of
asterisks, put one beside this match.
Even without the extra
votes, this match still would likely have been one of the most
popular. With the extra votes it's by far the most popular match of
the tournament so far. Over 85000 votes were cast, almost 10000 more
than the 2nd most popular match. That's an amazing total. Future
matches will have a hard time surpassing that number.
Link
managed to join Mega Man and Sephiroth as the only members of the
60000 vote club, although that membership is somewhat disputed. At
midnight Link was still in the 59000 vote range and it wasn't until
the poll went into extra time that he broke the 60000 mark. But the
votes stand and Link now has the 2nd highest vote count. He was only
500 votes shy of 60000 in his first match and he garnered 54000 in
his second match, so he's no stranger to the Biggest Vote Getters
list. In fact, he's the only character to make the list in all 3 of
his matches (Mega Man or Sephiroth would have a chance to join him
if their match doesn't turn out to be as close as everyone is
predicting). Not bad at all. Link should breeze by Scorpion for the
South Division title, and looks like a serious force to be reckoned
with in the final four.
Jill took out some big names in her
previous matches, but Link was just too much for her to handle. She
managed to get 38000 votes in each of her 2 previous matches, but
only 23000 this time, even with all the extra votes. Which leaves
Samus as the only surviving female character... for now.
A
moderately impressive 69.0% of the entrants predicted Link to win
this match. That's the 2nd best prediction percentage of the round.
Mario and Snake are the only other 2 characters to have been picked
by a reasonable number of people (72.5% and 67.5% respectively).
Mega Man or Sephiroth could join that list, but since they're going
head to head it seems rather unlikely. I expect that Link's next
match against Scorpion will be the easiest to predict of the fourth
round. But that will be the last time the outcome of a match will be
obvious beforehand.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/25/2002 12:39:05 AM | Message
Detail
|
There are a lot of issues to delve into tonight,
but I'm short on time right now, so I'll just look at the first,
Jill/Link.
The obvious distinctive feature of this match was
the number of votes it got. A number of people are blaming much of
this on a link from Penny Arcade. It is true that, even before
Midnight, we were seeing the highest vote total yet. However, I do
not think that necessarily proves that the PA connection had much of
an effect. It might be wise at this point to keep in mind the
relative popularities of PA and GFAQs. The latter is one of the top
50 most visitied sites on the internet; the former has much more of
a niche viewership (I don't know its numbers). It is rather absurd
to claim a PA link would grossly change the numbers, since the vast
majority of PA readers know of GameFAQs. If anything, I'd imagine
Penny Arcade will benefit from the GameFAQs link rather than the
other way around... ^_^
The other, more concrete reason is
the fact that the poll dragged on. This unfortunately dilutes the
numbers somewhat (Link should not be as high as he is on the
blowouts by vote difference list, for instance) but other than that
has little effect on the contest as a whole. It is worth noting that
this added time also shortened the Sonic/Samus affair, which truly
deserves the honour of #1 most popular match. But the Sonic/Samus
battle is a topic in and of
itself...
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your
massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 12:40:57 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
1 - Sonic the Hedgehog
(45:1) - 41939 / 49.98% (83912)
5 - Samus Aran
(36:1) - 41973 / 50.02% (83912) - 5323 /
31.8%
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Closest Matches
(difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% - (0.04%)
2)
(ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% -
(2.12%)
3) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel
47.43% - (5.14%)
4) Jill Valentine 53.34%
vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
5) Alucard 54.32%
vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
6)
Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% -
(8.82%)
7) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield
44.54% - (10.92%)
8) (iii) Aeris 43.46% vs.
Solid Snake 56.54% - (13.08%)
9) (iii) Pac-Man
42.26% vs. Scorpion 57.74% - (15.48%)
10)
Kyo Kusanagi 57.79% vs. Abe 42.21% -
(15.58%)
Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps
(difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34)
2) (ii)
Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea 30478 -
(1320)
3) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs. Raziel
27661 - (3001)
4) Jill Valentine 37539 vs.
Kirby 32837 - (4702)
5) Pikachu 30711 vs.
PaRappa The Rapper 25736 - (4975)
6) Alucard
33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 28190 -
(5326)
7) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire Redfield
28117 - (6887)
8) Kyo Kusanagi 31160 vs. Abe
22760 - (8400)
9) Serious Sam 32301 vs. Mr.
Driller 22696 - (9605)
10) (iii) Aeris 32702
vs. Solid Snake 42545 - (9843)
Top 10
Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)
1) (iii) Jill
Valentine vs. Link - 85273
2) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog vs.
Samus Aran - 83912
3) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371
4) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247
5)
(iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365
6) (iii) Lara Croft
vs. Crono - 74059
7) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud -
73242
8) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart -
71676
9) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
10)
Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
Top 10 Most
Impressive Losers (by votes)
1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
- 41939
2) Kirby - 32837
2) (iii) Aeris -
32702
3) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
4) (iii) Pac-Man
- 28936
5) (ii) Ryu - 28630
5) Miles "Tails"
Prower - 28190
6) Claire Redfield - 28117
7)
Raziel - 27661
8) (ii) Bomberman - 27432
9) (ii)
Knuckles the Echidna - 26748
10) PaRappa The Rapper -
25736
Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
(based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the
winner)
1) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3%
2) (ii)
Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
3) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
vs. Samus Aran 31.8%
4) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill
Valentine 32.5%
5) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono
33.1%
6) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
7)
Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7%
8)
Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7%
9) Abe 49.5%
vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%
10) Jill Valentine 50.8% vs.
Kirby 49.2%
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: marsman57
| Posted: 8/25/2002 12:42:56 AM | Message
Detail
|
Wow, no real comments on Sonic v. Samus... kinda
mad that Samus won, but that's just my opinion (probably because I
had Sonic), but I want Mega Man to win (eventhough it would help me
more to have Sephiroth win points wise). I just want a lot of
brackets to get messed up. I'd only lose 4 more points with
Sephiroth losing, some would lose like 48 ^_^.
---
"Got a bad
case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" --
8-bit theater |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/25/2002 1:13:20 AM | Message
Detail
|
Heh. After today, I might as well rule out my
chances entirely. It looks like Sephy's going down, thats my only
surviving tip in the bottom half, plus I have him winning the lot :/
I've known for about 2 weeks now though that I was going to struggle
to make the top 20% or so, and its going to be even worse after
today (most likely).
Sonic v Samus was a lot closer than I
expected, Pity I had Tidus winning that match :P. I seriously doubt
any of the other matches will be that close either, but who knows. I
still believe there's a lot of multiple voting taking place (compare
the amount of votes to pre-competition polls for example), but I
guess it can't be helped.
Good luck to everyone else still in
the comp.
If you're looking for a new poll idea now, maybe it
would be a good time to put a "Who do you think will win the
competition?" poll up. As there'll only be 8 left after today, its
probably the best time for it.
---
Everyone that says
"There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never
visited this board. |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/25/2002 1:24:26 AM | Message
Detail
|
Well, its only 198 diff now, guess I'm not
COMPLETELY out of it yet (out of the top 20% anyway). Its going to
be another huge amount of votes for this one. I'd say it will be
reasonably close too.
VOTE SEPHY! (Again if you can
:P)
---
Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid
question", has obviously never visited this board. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 1:24:43 AM | Message
Detail
|
I don't know the exact number of people who
visit PA each day, but I seem to recall that it was in the range of
10,000-20,000. I could be way off though. Either way, a direct link
to the contest page from a popular website could definitely have an
effect on voting (even if those visitors are all aware of GameFAQs,
it's unlikely that many of them are daily voters). Maybe only 5,000
votes, maybe 3,000, maybe less. But I think it was
noticeable.
Still, maybe it was just a really popular
poll. I'm sure that's possible, although Jill/Link doesn't seem like
the matchup that would do it.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/25/2002 1:26:34 AM | Message
Detail
|
Penny Arcade viewership: ~20000
GameFAQs
viewership: 4,000,000
I just can't see there being that big
an impact.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your
massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/25/2002 1:39:58 AM | Message
Detail
|
Where are you getting those numbers,
Neo?
Personally, from what I've heard, you need to move one of
GF's 0s into PA's total....
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 1:40:19 AM | Message
Detail
|
I'm in trouble if Sephiroth loses too. I've got
him going to the finals, so if Mega Man holds on that'll end any
hope of me winning the contest (which is basically gone at this
point anyway, so I'm not going to worry about it too
much).
That reminds me, I'll probably close the stats website
poll at the end of today, or at any point that it looks like
Sephiroth will definitely lose. :) Kinda screws up the poll if he
goes down. As for Ringworm's "Who do you think will win the
competition?" idea, I was thinking of waiting until the final four
for that one. Although, that doesn't really leave much time to vote.
Hmm, I'll think about it.
NeoElfboy: Well, the polls only get
about 70,000 votes regardless of the 4,000,000 viewership, and then
PA sends maybe 10,000 viewers directly to the poll page? Many of
those are likely to drop a vote while they're here. Dunno, maybe it
had little to no effect, but it sure is easier to explain it that
way. ;)
In other news, the stats website is mostly updated. I
found something I'll need to fix tomorrow, but the basic stuff for
tonight is up (as usual). Last day to vote in the current website
poll.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 2:42:33 AM | Message
Detail
|
Okay, this should help with the PA debate.
Straight from Penny Arcade: "And, with well over sixty thousand
readers a day coming to check out new strips, it may be the most
popular gaming comic online."
60,000 thousand people see a
link to a gaming site that relates directly to the comic. Most will
visit. Some will already be GameFAQs frequenters, some won't bother
to vote. Some will vote. Enough to be noticeable? Beats me, but it
sounds good.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/25/2002 4:12:59 AM | Message
Detail
|
Some unofficial analysis/venting on Sonic vs.
Samus:
...wow.
Well, we knew this match would be
close, but I don't think anyone expected it to be this close. Or
this popular; for a matchup that only ran for 22 hours--and one many
feel will simply decide who loses in the next round--the 83912 vote
total was nothing short of staggering. It's not all that hard to
explain, though; several factors contributed to that total. How
close the matchup was obviously helped boost it up, and some of the
extra PA voters are probably still hanging around too (especially
since the link's still up there). Of course, the factor many people
would be quickest to point out is the cheating that may or may not
be involved...but I'll get into that later.
That issue aside,
the closeness of this battle was incredible. The lead changed hands
dozens, maybe hundreds of times, and the winner was decided only by
the sound of the bell. The only poll to even come close was Donkey
Kong vs. Aya Brea--which actually has some eerie parallels with this
one. It started out with DK in the lead, but Aya overtook him
briefly--until DK gained a 3000 vote lead the next morning; Aya
slowly caught up as the day went on, but couldn't make the final
push she needed. The same thing happened with Sonic vs. Samus, but
with Sonic's biggest lead just over half of DK's. The lower setback
let Samus succeed where Aya failed an hour before the end of the
poll; from there the result went back and forth until the very
end.
Under normal circumstances, neither character would
really lose much face here. The tiny difference at the end of the
poll shows that the two characters were basically equal in
popularity; all either really needed was a little luck. As it turned
out, Samus was the one to get that luck--along with those with Samus
in their brackets. ;)
But, as anyone here for the end of the
poll knows, these were hardly normal circumstances.
The
nature of Samus's comeback lead many to believe that some
vote-stuffing was taking place. Her steady increase after Sonic's
morning charge, notable jumps as the poll neared its end, and
failure to produce a substantial lead after overtaking Sonic all
seemed a little suspicious. The accusations got so rampant that
CJayC stepped in three times to comment on the subject, basically
saying that multiple votes were found, but nearly equal for both
sides and relatively insignificant. This calmed some, but others
only grew more worried at his acknowledgment of multiple
votes.
Whether cheaters actually changed the percentiles is
impossible for us to prove at this point. But there's no question
that they damaged the poll. The possibility of Sonic losing unfairly
angers many Sonic fans, and for good reason. There's little doubt
that Sonic is a more mainstream character...although that doesn't
always help here at Gamefaqs (see Duke Nukem and Crash).
But
the real losers here are Samus and her fans. In the span of six
hours, she went from a respected competitor to a black mark on the
face of the tournament. A number of people have voiced a new hatred
for the character on the boards, all because of a few extra cheaters
voting for her that may not even exist. The sentiment obviously
hurts her chances in upcoming rounds, and possibly even those of
fellow Nintendo mascots Mario and Link as well.
The Sonic vs.
Samus poll will likely be remembered as the most controversial of
the tournament, and no one can be sure if Samus should have won or
lost it. For die-hard Samus fans, that uncertainty is the hardest
thing to swallow of all.
(Sorry if I'm stealing your thunder
here, Solar. I just felt like saying a few words about this match;
this seems like the least volatile place to do it.)
Thanks,
Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 2:43:36 PM | Message
Detail
|
Not at all, be my guest. I'm quite interested to
hear your thoughts on the issue.
I guess I'll comment on the
cheating situation a bit, since I'm interested in exploring it and
I'm not going to go into it heavily in the daily
analysis.
I'll start by saying I'm not convinced that
cheating ruined this poll, although I am open to the possibility.
I'd like to think my outlook on the subject if fairly neutral, since
I respect Sonic and Samus equally and since my bracket reads Tidus
over Ryu for this battle. It's true that I voted for Samus and was
rooting for her early on, but by the end of the day I was hoping
Sonic would take it. I would have been fine with either
outcome.
So, how could Samus make a comeback if not for
cheaters? Well, Jjukil gave the first evidence of how it's possible.
This match followed much the same pattern as the Aya vs. DK battle.
Aya was actually in the lead shortly after the poll opened, but by
morning DK had assumed the lead and he carried it throughout the
day. Then, as midnight approached, Aya began closing the gap and
might actually have caught up at that rate if the poll had lasted a
few hours longer. Much the same thing happened in the Sonic/Samus
match, only this time there was less of a deficit to make up and
Samus actually pulled off the comeback. It could be argued that both
surges in votes for the losing character were the result of
cheating, but that fails to explain why they were also able to hold
a lead earlier in the day. Another possible explanation? There is
some evidence that the more mainstream characters tend to receive
more votes during the daylight hours, whereas the less well-known
characters are more popular with the late-night crowd (possibly
because it consists of more experienced gamers who are more likely
to have heard of the other character). That's a difficult theory to
prove, but it does make some sense that mainstream characters like
DK and Sonic would fair better with the casual daytime visitors than
Aya and Samus.
Additionally, it is not uncommon for certain
characters to see a dramatic increase in vote share within the final
few hours of a poll. A good example would be Sephiroth, who
maintained a little more than 75% of the vote against Crash for the
majority of the day (if I remember correctly), before increasing it
up to 81.52% as the night wore on. This has happened with other
characters as well, and I can actually produce a visual record of
one such occurrence. In the final 2 hours of the Cloud/Pikachu
battle, Cloud's percentage of the incoming votes mysteriously spiked
up, while Pikachu's dropped. It would be hard to argue that this
spike was a result of cheating, since Cloud was ahead by
approximately 60% at the time and there was absolutely no reason to
cheat for him. This spike didn't affect the over all outcome much
though, because the total number of votes was decreasing rapidly as
the lackluster poll drew to a close. However, it does indicate that
a character's incoming vote percentage can change noticeably within
the last few hours of a poll, and this effect could possibly be
amplified in a very close poll with a lot of interest down to the
wire. To see this in visual form, check out the second graph on the
vote distribution page:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/distribution.html
Could
these factors have been the reason for Samus' comeback instead of
the accusations of cheating? Possible. CJayC has indicated that very
little cheating was possible; very few were able to cheat, those who
could managed only 20-30 votes each, and the cheating balanced out
for both sides. Still, maybe it was cheating that did it. Although
there appear to be other possible explanations.
Later today
I'll probably have a look through the topic that kept a record of
the poll totals and see if I can find any evidence one way or
another from that. I'm not sure how good their records were, but
it's worth a look.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: MMXcalibur
| Posted: 8/25/2002 2:53:44 PM | Message
Detail
|
solarshadow, Im interested...who did you vote
for in the last two heated matches?
Sonic and
Samus
and
Mega Man/ Sephiroth?
NOt trying to pry out
anything. Your stats and reviews are exceptional.
I'm just
wondering who the MAJOR statician of the tourney is voting for
:D
---
(>^_^)-( ()============<D
<(0_o'^) -KIRBY X-BUSTER!
MEGA MAN(rd. 3):Vote
against over-rated villains! |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/25/2002 3:09:19 PM | Message
Detail
|
"But, as anyone here for the end of the poll
knows, these were hardly normal circumstances."
LOL, this
line is gold Jjukil. Great analysis overall, too.
I think
cheating did make a big impact on this match. And I'm rather upset.
I feel like I've been cheated out of four points, and it disappoints
me that people would cheat in a contest like. I have lost some
respect for this contest and some of the users. I can only hope that
the rest of contest isn't dictated by who can find the way to cheat
the fastest...
This match between Megaman and Sephiroth is
very interesting. It's 3 o'clock GF time, and there's already more
than 60000 votes. I have Sephirtoh going to the final four, but I'm
glad it's close. If Sephiroth can barely scrape by Megaman, then I
think he'll lose to Link easily.
I also wonder if tomorrow's
match will be as close as today's is. Is Sephiroth more popular than
Cloud? Is Megaman more popular than Mario? If we get anything from
this match, it's that the big Squaresoft characters aren't quite as
invincible as some originally thought.
---
Muse of the
Day: If electricity comes from electrons, then where does
morality come from? |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/25/2002 3:26:00 PM | Message
Detail
|
Agreed, Samberdog (and thanks for the
compliments!). Even with Mega Man's earlier blowouts, I wasn't
really convinced he could compete like this. It was even better to
see him winning when the poll started, since I'm a true Blue Bomber
fan. ;)
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/25/2002 3:34:14 PM | Message
Detail
|
It's also possible that this is showing us
MegaMan's popularity. It is entirely possible that these are the two
most popular characters in the tournament.
About the PA
issue, I don't know about the rest of you, but I don't follow random
links that often. I doubt that many people do. I have finite time on
my hands. Certainly there could be some effect... but I doubt it was
significant, and it deserves no more than the smallest of asterisks.
Especially considering the magnitude of certain events the day
following.
Now for Sonic/Samus...
Like Solar, I was
left by circumstances as a neutral observer to what will almost
assuredly be the closest match of the tournament. I voted Samus (and
it's interesting to consider that if I and twenty others had changed
our votes, the whole contest would look different) but I would have
been almost as happy to see Sonic win (I prefer Samus' games, but a
Sonic win would upset more brackets and leave me in a better
situation).
Cheating has always been a fact of the
tournament. Simply put, it's too troublesome to eliminate
completely, and in general, it has no effect. But this match was
determined by less than 40 votes in the end. Any cheating may well
have had an impact, which is unfortunate to say the
least.
More disappointing to me than the cheating was the
reactions of certain people on the Boards. I found it upsetting that
people were suggesting boycotting the rest of the contest, leaving
GameFAQs, sueing CJayC, in response to the match. The assumption of
Sonic fans that Samus could not have comeback without cheating shows
remarkable ignorance and blind fanboyism. The fact is, such a
comeback was always possible. There are innumerable possible reasons
for it, ranging from Samus being more popular in certain time zones,
to a push on Nintendo boards for Samus votes, to simple bad luck for
the blue hedgehog. There is no proof that cheating changed the
match, and hence CJayC was, in my mind, 100% correct to clearly
state that the results should stand. It is unfortunate that the vote
gap falls within the error margins (allegedly) introudced by
cheating, but that should not ruin the contest. Even if we don't
know that Samus "deserved" to win, we do know that it was more
likely than her opponent "deserving" (given the fact that we know
not which side would cheat more). Time to move on, everybody... it's
just four points, it's just a contest.
A contest that is
getting extremely interesting of late, to be
sure.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: GamerAndre
| Posted: 8/25/2002 3:51:37 PM | Message
Detail
|
| [This message was deleted at the request of the
original poster] |
| From: GamerAndre
| Posted: 8/25/2002 3:55:37 PM | Message
Detail
|
Well, I do have to Agree NeoElf, Samus is
proabably the the only besides Mega Man who could have taken down
Sonic (In that Half of the Quarter Final bracket), but the Fact that
Cheating is rampant and the margin was -100 votes kinda spoiled it
for me, belive me, I would have accepted this loss better if Samus
had a bigger margin of victory
---
"I smell shades of November
2000, although this isn't determining the President" |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 4:01:48 PM | Message
Detail
|
MMXcalibur: I voted Samus in the first match,
although I was a bit torn in my decision. I might've voted Sonic if
I'd saved my vote until later in the day. As for the second match,
it will distress you, I'm sure, to know that I chose Sephiroth.
Another hard call for me since I'm also a big Mega Man fan, but I've
got Sephiroth in my bracket so that swayed me a little because it
looks like he'll need every vote he can get. I'm still holding on to
the faintest glimmer of hope that I can do well in this contest, but
since that hope is barely a flicker I won't be too upset if Mega Man
ends up winning.
NeoElfboy: On the PA issue, I would agree
that few people follow random links. But as a regular Penny Arcade
reader and I can tell you that I follow most of the interesting
links provided by Tycho, and particularly those with the potential
to illuminate the daily strip. Since the most recent comic deals
directly with the GameFAQs character battle, anyone not familiar
with it would have some motivation to follow the link and check it
out. PA has been known to overload various website's servers when
linking to them, so I'd imagine a fair number of the daily readers
actually follow the links. But that's all I'll say about that.
:)
As for the rest of your post, I agree almost 100% with
everything you said and feel that it may be the best post in this
entire topic.
I'm actually starting to wonder if being a
neutral observer has me at a disadvantage when trying to appreciate
the effect of cheating. I'm sure if I'd had Sonic in my bracket I
would be feeling very suspicious and a little angry right now, even
if there was no confirmed legitimate target for that anger. And
that's really the main problem: we can't prove anything. Samus made
a miraculous comeback, but there are a number of ways that she could
have done so legitimately. Which means we can't confidently chalk it
up to cheating. And CJayC has indicated that cheating was minimal
and balanced, so we'll just have to accept the outcome and hope that
it represents the true will of the voters.
Hmm, all this talk
is not getting the website updated. I'll be back in a little while.
:)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Blitz
Ace | Posted: 8/25/2002 4:35:04 PM | Message
Detail
|
I love your stats man, keep up the good
work.
---
Good luck, and may the Bark be with
you.
President of DOG, Dictation of Gamefaqs. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 4:45:45 PM | Message
Detail
|
Okay, the website's been updated with the usual
daily stuff (full lists, upsets, odds, seeding). I've also updated
the Top 10 Most Even Matches list with the odds from the current
round. Either I forgot to put them up before or Tripod tricked me
into reverting to a previous list (it does that sometimes). But it's
fixed now.
I just realized I have a lot of work ahead of me
for tonight/tomorrow. With the fourth round starting I've got to
make the pages for the fourth round stats, add the top lists for the
third round, and update the contest averages. Not to mention doing
analysis wrap-ups and previews. Phew. At least it will make this
topic and the website worth checking out for the next couple of
days. :)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/25/2002 4:53:15 PM | Message
Detail
|
Hmm... you raise a good point about the two of
us possibly not fully appreciating the Sonic/Samus situation. I
suppose it's impossible for me to fully sympathise with those who
feel cheated... especially those who had a chance at winning the
contest ruined by the close outcome.
On the other hand, I'm
not blinded by anger, either.
It's almost a shame what a
distraction this match has been... nobody's even been bothering to
discuss the events of the current day, which to be sure features one
of the most exciting (and pivotal) matches thus
far.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: durron597
| Posted: 8/25/2002 6:06:31 PM | Message
Detail
|
| solarshadow: Could you ask CJayC to put a link
to your page on the "view results only" page? (Where the current
bout's tally is) |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 8:13:25 PM | Message
Detail
|
I could try. I don't think he will though. You
could suggest it too: contests@gamefaqs.com
Of course, by
the time he gets around to reading his mail again the contest will
probably be over. :)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 9:36:28 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some Sonic vs. Samus analysis.
Well, what
can I say. This was certainly the most exciting and the most
controversial match yet. An unbelievable number of lead changes and
an amazing finish.
I don't think I need to point out that
this was by far the closest match of the tournament. It was
so close it makes the Aya/DK battle look like a monster blowout.
Only a measely 34 votes separated Sonic and Samus by the time the
poll closed (a mere 0.04% difference). I'm sure most of us never
expected to see a match this close. At the beginning of the poll the
lead changed hands a couple of times, and Samus was ahead for
awhile. Sonic staged an early comeback and grabbed the lead. He
continued to lead for most of the day, but could never manage to
pull away by more than 2000 votes. Samus was able to keep it close
and this set the stage for a dramatic finish. With only a couple of
hours left Samus began to seriously start closing the small gap. As
midnight approached the 2 characters were essentially tied, with the
lead see-sawing back and forth right up until the final bell. It was
really a matter of luck as to which character would be leading when
the poll closed, and Samus just narrowly managed to eek out the win.
Much to the disdain of Sonic fans.
This match was of course
marred by the accusations of cheating. To some, Samus' miracle
comeback could only be explained by an influx of illegitimate votes.
The truth is that, while suspicions continue to run high, there is
no proof that cheaters decided this match. There are a number of
possible legitimate explanations for Samus' late charge, and CJayC
has advised us that the actual amount of cheating was minimal and in
equal proportion on both sides. That's all I'll say about
that.
This was another amazing match as far as total votes
are concerned. The nearly 84000 votes puts the match at 2nd on the
Most Popular Polls list. Not bad for a poll that was up for less
than 22 hours. Why so many voters? Well, the fact that the match was
so close is probably the first reason. An exciting match is more
likely to draw voters right down to the wire than a boring one. The
extra cheater votes probably boosted the total a little as well.
It's hard to say by how much; CJayC has assured us that only the
most fervent were able to cheat, with only 20-30 phony votes each.
Hard to know if that had an appreciable effect, but it's worth
mentioning. Also, the link to the poll results is still on the Penny
Arcade main page, which is no doubt sending additional voters this
way. Finally, the fact that 2 very popular characters went head to
head could certainly have inspired voters to come out to the
poll.
Samus and Sonic were both coming off approximately 60%
wins against difficult opponents, so it's no surprise that this one
was close, although I don't think anyone expected it to be
this close. Samus' vote count has hovered around the 40000 range for
her previous 2 matches, so the 41973 she managed this time fits in
quite nicely, and gives her the 24th highest vote count. Right
behind her at number 25 is Sonic, with 41939 votes. This total puts
him shockingly high up the list for a losing character, ahead of an
incredible 31 winning totals. That easily breaks Kirby's previous
loser's record of 32837 (50th on the list). That is seriously
impressive and gives you an idea of just how worthy these 2
characters were. But sadly only one could move
on.
(continued) |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 9:36:29 PM | Message
Detail
|
So, with Sonic's defeat we're down to only one
number 1 seeded character left in the tournament (that'd be Mario).
Amazingly, all of the other number 1 seeds have been taken down by
number 5 seeded characters this round. And those exact same 5th
seeds (Crono, Scorpion, Samus) were responsible for wiping out the
4th seeds in their division last round. A very bizarre coincidence,
to be sure (check the upsets section of the website for
more).
Only 31.8% of the contest entrants picked Samus to win
this match, which was pretty much the expected number. Probably a
very similar number picked Sonic to take it, with the rest split
between Tidus, Ryu, and the others. That makes this the 3rd hardest
match to predict so far. And we can expect the majority of the
matches from here on out to be in the 30% or lower
range.
Samus' next match will be against the winner of Mega
Man vs. Sephiroth, which is still very much in doubt. Either way,
Samus will have her hands full. Most feel the winner of that battle
will take the division title as well, but Samus has surprised us
before so don't count her out just yet.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 9:53:51 PM | Message
Detail
|
New poll going up soon on the stats website.
Last chance to vote for which of the "elite five" characters you
think is least likely to win it all.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: javajim
| Posted: 8/25/2002 10:31:36 PM | Message
Detail
|
| Well, seeing as how I had Sonic vs Mario in the
final round, this one hurt quite a bit. Any slim chance I had is
finally crushed. Even though there was confirmed cheating involved,
I think Cjayc had the right idea in ending the polls at midnight,
and letting chance decide. I think one of the reasons for the late
surge in votes was the attention the match was getting. I for one
was online trying to convince anyone who would listen to vote for
Sonic, and I got a few people to do so for me. I'm sure I'm not the
only one that attracted more people to the polls than is usual. Now
that my chances are over, I'm actually a little relieved; now I can
vote my favorite characters without having a nervous breakdown over
which one wins. The rest of this contest should be a lot less
stressful for me. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 10:37:31 PM | Message
Detail
|
Now that my chances are over, I'm actually a
little relieved; now I can vote my favorite characters without
having a nervous breakdown over which one wins.
Yeah,
that's exactly how I felt when I blew it with my second round picks.
I'm still a little bit disappointed, especially when I get a hard
match right (Scorpion over Pac-Man for instance) because I know it
means nothing now, but it's a lot less stressful and any future
losses become much easier to take.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/25/2002 10:48:59 PM | Message
Detail
|
Nice analysis, as always.
The third round
is drawing to a close, and with just an hour left it's starting to
look like Sephiroth will survive. It'd be foolish to call it now,
though. I have a number of thoughts stemming from the events of
today's match, (the most significant in the tournament to date, I
feel) but I'll save them for when things are
official.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your
massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: StaindSoul
| Posted: 8/25/2002 11:09:12 PM | Message
Detail
|
| Wow! I just checked out your website. It's much
better than I would think! Thanks a lot! |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/25/2002 11:19:35 PM | Message
Detail
|
Here's something interesting I've noticed about
today's match: it hasn't caused NEARLY as much arguing and flaming
as I thought it would.
I haven't been around for most of the day,
granted...but I haven't seen a lot of really large or out-of-control
topics about it. Am I missing something? Or were
we...?
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 11:37:34 PM | Message
Detail
|
Nice analysis, as always.
Thanks.
You'll notice this is the first time I haven't used the words
"brief" or "quick" in the first sentence. ;)
Jjukil: Seems
like everyone's still stuck on the results of yesterday's match.
Even still, there should be more talk about it than this. As
NeoElfboy said, it's a shame this match isn't getting its proper
due.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/25/2002 11:39:52 PM | Message
Detail
|
*nods* Definitely. There are so many things to
talk about here besides the cheating, and we're just
not....
I could go into some of those things here, but I'll
leave it up to you guys. For now, I'll just
say:
...96,271....
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/25/2002 11:56:15 PM | Message
Detail
|
Heheh. Yeah, unbelievable.
Uh oh, I just
realized that Mario vs. Cloud is coming up in mere minutes from now.
This is still a make or break battle for my bracket, and I've also
got my perfect North Division on the line. If this match can't get
people to stop talking about cheating for a few minutes, I fear
nothing will.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/26/2002 12:32:12 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
6 - Mega Man (45:1) -
48185 / 49.49% (97357)
7 - Sephiroth (9:1) -
49172 / 50.51% (97357) - 9344 /
55.7%
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Closest Matches
(difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
49.98% vs. Samus Aran 50.02% - (0.04%)
2)
(iii) Mega Man 49.49% vs. Sephiroth 50.51% -
(1.02%)
3) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea
48.94% - (2.12%)
4) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs.
Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
5) Jill Valentine
53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
6) Alucard
54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% -
(8.64%)
7) Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper
45.59% - (8.82%)
8) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire
Redfield 44.54% - (10.92%)
9) (iii) Aeris
43.46% vs. Solid Snake 56.54% - (13.08%)
10)
(iii) Pac-Man 42.26% vs. Scorpion 57.74% -
(15.48%)
Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps
(difference in brackets)
1) (iii) Sonic the Hedgehog
41939 vs. Samus Aran 41973 - (34)
2) (iii)
Mega Man 48185 vs. Sephiroth 49172 -
(987)
3) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs. Aya Brea
30478 - (1320)
4) Strider Hiryu 30662 vs.
Raziel 27661 - (3001)
5) Jill Valentine
37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702)
6) Pikachu
30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 -
(4975)
7) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower
28190 - (5326)
8) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire
Redfield 28117 - (6887)
9) Kyo Kusanagi
31160 vs. Abe 22760 - (8400)
10) Serious Sam
32301 vs. Mr. Driller 22696 -
(9605)
Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote
totals)
1) (iii) Mega Man vs. Sephiroth - 97357
2)
(iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273
3) (iii) Sonic the
Hedgehog vs. Samus Aran - 83912
4) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud
Strife - 75371
5) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake -
75247
6) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife -
74365
7) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059
8)
Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
9) Solid Snake vs.
Squall Leonhart - 71676
10) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link -
71262
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by
votes)
1) (iii) Mega Man - 48185
2) (iii) Sonic the
Hedgehog - 41939
3) Kirby - 32837
4) (iii) Aeris
- 32702
5) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
6) (iii)
Pac-Man - 28936
7) (ii) Ryu - 28630
8) Miles
"Tails" Prower - 28190
9) Claire Redfield -
28117
10) Raziel - 27661
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/26/2002 12:36:07 AM | Message
Detail
|
Great Sonic/Samus analysis.
Almost
100000 total votes. That's amazing! I wonder if that number will be
able to be topped in this contest. Mario and Cloud could do it, I
guess we'll see.
More great Solar!
---
Muse of the
Day: Why do you get on a bus, but get into a car? |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/26/2002 1:05:56 AM | Message
Detail
|
The fun never ends, does it? As I write this,
Cloud leads Mario by a mere 32 votes, or roughly 0.5%. For the third
night in a row, it looks like we'll have no idea who the winner is
until the final hour.
Getting back to the big match of
the first three rounds, MegaMan/Sephiroth...
Starting on a
personal note, this match was huge for my bracket. At the start of
the Mega/Seph bout, I had 71 points with 163 possible. Of the 92
points that were still up for grabs, 60 were tied up in one
character. Had the match gone the other way, I would have quietly
retired from the contest by now. As it is, I still hold out hope of
doing well (if not winning, needless to say). That said, despite the
importance of this match to my own contest performance, I would have
been happy to see it go either way. I'm not ashamed to say I liked
Sephiroth's character, yet the MegaMan series has never disappointed
me, and I've always had a soft spot for the Blue Bomber. I would
have loved to see both get to the quarter-finals (and I feel both
could have in many other possible bracket setups) but it was not
possible. Blame poor seeding for that... the fact that MegaMan and
Sephiroth were seeded behind five others in their division,
including Serious Sam and Crash Bandicoot, is nothing short of
laughable (who were both, fittingly, utterly embarrassed by the
lower-seeded pair).
MegaMan is now out of the picture. He is
without a doubt the first character with a bona fide chance to win
to fall... personally, I'd consider him one of the four best here.
I'd imagine everybody considers him at least in the top 7. But,
whatever threat MegaMan might have posed is fairly meaningless now.
On to the character who will be pivotal in the final
week.
(continued)
---
"Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/26/2002 1:06:45 AM | Message
Detail
|
Sephiroth has defeated MegaMan. What does this
mean? There are two distinct outlooks, depending on whether one is a
pessimist or an optimist (from the standpoint of somebody with
Sephiroth winning it all):
One view is that Sephiroth could
barely contain MegaMan. Isn't he one of the Elite Five? Shouldn't he
have done better against one who doesn't share that label, however
impressive that character may have been in the first two rounds? It
is entirely possible that, if Seph couldn't manage a decent margin
against Mega, he is doomed against Link. After all, both characters
have broad appeal, both dating back around 15 years, and both
starred in games which much of the GameFAQs votership grew up with.
The key difference is their impact in recent years... while
Ocarina of Time is regarded by many as the best title on the
Nintendo 64, the MegaMan games haven't been quite as relevant...
best-sellers, widely loved games, too be sure... but they haven't
had the impact on the public of an OOT... or, for that
matter, a Final Fantasy VII. Surely Link will close the gap
that the Blue Bomber couldn't, and walk away with a win.
The
other view as that Sephiroth has survived his greatest trial. He has
walked through the fire and still stands. Consider, for a moment,
what MegaMan represented. He had the unwavering support of those who
vote based on "what the character did for the industry". He had the
support of those who champion so-called old-school characters. He
had the support of those who feel FF7 is overrated, and those who
hate Sephiroth, Square, or RPGs in general. Most importantly,
though, he had something that no other character Seph will ever face
again can ever claim to have... an almost total lack of haters. Rest
assured, Samus and Link, Seph's two likely obstacles to the final,
have their share of haters. Not many, perhaps. But they are there,
and their numbers may have been swelled by the allegations of
cheating on the part of Nintendo fans to get Samus the win over
Sonic. It is entirely possible that almost all those who would ever
have voted against Sephiroth already have, which would suggest he is
capable of advancing past Link to the final.
There you go.
Pick your theory. Either way, assuming the latter two quarter-finals
go as most predict, expect a delightful matchup between Link and
Sephiroth in the semi-finals. I know I'll be riveted.
^_^
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/26/2002 2:21:52 AM | Message
Detail
|
Very interesting. I kind of like the second
theory. It makes some sense and could certainly play out that way.
Although I still feel that Link has the edge at this point. I guess
we'll have a better idea after Samus vs. Sephiroth.
He has
walked through the fire and still stands.
Heh,
nice.
In other news, the stats website has seen a bunch of
updating. Almost all of the sections have been updated and there's a
new poll up (another of NeoElfboy's suggestions, I believe). All
that's left to be updated is the Contest Averages, which I'll get
around to early tomorrow.
Oh, I'd like to urge everybody to
take a quick look at the odds page:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/odds.html
The 7 characters with
the best odds are all still standing, with the only surprise being
Scorpion down at number 23. I know the odds were generated based on
the entries, but I'm still amazed that they accurately identified
the top 7 characters. Looks like our collective ability to predict
the matches was pretty darn good (with a minor oops on Scorpion). I
wonder if that will continue...
P.S. Vote Mario.
;)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/26/2002 12:43:57 PM | Message
Detail
|
The third round averages are up, and I'll post
them below as well. The first and second round averages can of
course still be found on the website:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/avg.html
-CONTEST
AVERAGES-
Average Number of Votes Received By The Winning
Character
North Division 52060 75.3%
East Division
47517 63.6%
South Division 50735 66.0%
West Division 45573
50.3%
Third Round Avg 48971 62.9%
Average
Number of Votes Received By The Losing Character
North
Division 17043 24.7%
East Division 27137 36.4%
South
Division 26139 34.0%
West Division 45062 49.7%
Third
Round Avg 28845 37.1%
Average Number of Total Votes
Per Match
North Division 69103
East Division 74653
South Division 76874
West Division 90635
Third Round
Avg 77816
Average Win Margin
North
Division 35017 50.6%
East Division 20380 27.2%
South
Division 24596 32.0%
West Division 511 0.6%
Third Round
Avg 20126 25.8%
Average Number of Contest Entrants
Predicting Each Match Correctly (out of 16764 total entrants)
North Division 10566 63.0%
East Division 8429 50.3%
South Division 7238 43.2%
West Division 7334 43.7%
Third Round Avg 8391 50.1%
Average Number of
Points Earned by Contest Entrants (out of 8 possible points per
division, 32 per round)
North Division 5.04
East
Division 4.02
South Division 3.45
West Division 3.50
Third Round 16.01
So, in order to be in the
majority you need 59.69 points right now (well, 60 or above). How's
your bracket doing?
Also, the total number of votes cast so
far in the contest is 3,527,030.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/26/2002 2:08:29 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Mega Man vs. Sephiroth
analysis.
Remember everything I said about Sonic vs. Samus?
Well, replace "Sonic" with "Mega Man", "Samus" with "Sephiroth", and
double the number of intensifiers. That's basically what it amounts
to.
It was another epic battle, and the biggest one of the
third round. Unfortunately, it was overshadowed a bit by all the
talk about yesterday's match. This battle wasn't quite as exciting
as Sonic/Samus, but it had its share of drama. Mega Man opened the
poll with an early lead, up by as much as 10%. Sephiroth quickly cut
into it and soon caught up. Sephiroth took the lead in the wee hours
of the morning and held a small margin for the rest of the day. Mega
Man attempted a late charge (a la Samus), but he just couldn't make
a serious dent in the vote gap. Still, this ended up as easily the
2nd closest match of the tournament, trumped only by the amazing
Sonic/Samus showdown.
Remember what I said about doubling the
intensifiers? This was an incredibly amazing match as far as
total votes are concerned. An astonishing 97357 votes were
cast in the poll. That's getting awfully close to the "unreachable"
100 grand mark. And it's more than 12,000 votes higher than the 2nd
place Jill/Link battle. The thesaurus is running out of ways for me
to express my incredulity. :) Possible reasons for the staggeringly
high vote total: Increased interest in the contest following the
Sonic/Samus bout, Mega Man vs. Sephiroth being the highest profile
match yet, the link from Penny Arcade, the generally increased vote
totals of the third round, increased cheating, etc.
This
truly was a clash of the titans. Both Mega Man and Sepiroth's
previous battles earned them most of the highest spots on the
Biggest Blowouts and Biggest Vote Getters lists. These 2 had been
dominating the contest, so it's only fitting that their battle was
this epic. Mega Man had achieved over 60000 votes in each of his
previous matches, with Sephiroth pulling in over 60000 once and
54000 the other time. Mega Man was averaging 92% of the vote, while
Sephiroth was averaging 85%. Needless to say both of their numbers
took a serious hit this round, but they're still impressive none the
less. Sephiroth's 49172 vote count and Mega Man's 48185 count left
them just short of joining Link and Cloud as the only 3-time members
of the 50000 vote club. But more impressively, Mega Man's losing
vote count places him 18th on the overall list (out of 112). That
puts almost 40 winning totals to shame. Mind-numbingly amazing. Mega
Man wasn't able to win it, but at least he went out with a major
bang.
55.7% of the entrants picked Sephiroth to win, which is
pretty impressive if you consider that only 77.0% had Sephiroth
getting this far and that his battle with Mega Man turned out to be
so close. I'm guessing that most of us underestimated the Blue
Bomber. After all, the odds clearly favored Sephiroth while the
eventual win was anything but clear cut.
Sephiroth will face
off against Samus in the fourth round. After what he went through
against Mega Man this should be a much easier battle. Although it's
probably a risky idea to count out Samus just yet. She's had an
impressive run and was able to take down the likes of Sonic the
Hedgehog. Still, the smart money has to be on Sephiroth, which could
set up an epic semi-final against Link. I can't
wait.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/26/2002 2:50:42 PM | Message
Detail
|
Bonus stat:
Combined Vote Counts For
Third Round Participants (losers in italics)
Link -
175432
Mega Man - 172138
Cloud Strife - 166356
Sephiroth - 164495
Crono - 145710
Mario - 136217
Solid Snake - 130777
Sonic the Hedgehog - 128564
Samus Aran - 122123
Scorpion - 121037
Aeris -
120947
Pac-Man - 102693
Lara Croft -
102616
Jill Valentine - 98709
Alucard -
91958
Donkey Kong - 75907
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/26/2002 8:24:10 PM | Message
Detail
|
-THIRD ROUND WRAP UP-
Now this is more
like it! Finally a little excitement in the polls.
This round
started slowly, with Mario butt-stomping DK for an easy 80% win. No
real surprise that he won, although this was the first time he
managed to put up some decent numbers.
Cloud and Link also
had easy wins as expected, trouncing their opponents with around 70%
of the vote. Perhaps somewhat unexpectedly, Crono defeated Lara by a
similar margin. Crono is looking more and more dangerous as the
tournament progresses.
The biggest upset of the round was
probably Scorpion's victory over Pac-Man. Scorpion defied the odds
yet again and took down an old school icon. An amazingly low 17.3%
of the entrants predicted this one correctly, making it by far the
hardest match to predict yet. Look for some low numbers to rival
that in the upcoming rounds, as the battles become fiercer and the
vote gaps narrower.
Snake still wasn't able to impress
anybody, but he did manage to slip past Aeris. Crono will be his
true test next round. Were Snake's chances overestimated, or is he
merely hiding in the shadows, waiting for his moment to strike? We
shall see.
It was of course expected that the Sonic/Samus and
Mega Man/Sephiroth matches would be extremely close, but not this
unbelievably close. Out of a total of 97357 votes, only a mere 987
separated Mega Man and Sephiroth when the dust finally settled, and
even more incredibly, the Sonic/Samus match was decided by a
frighteningly small 34 votes. That's right, after 83912 total votes
were cast the 2 characters were separated by less than 3 dozen
votes. That's truly amazing. We never thought any of the matches
would end up being this close. And not only did they end up being
close, but they were exciting throughout the day. The lead changed
hands multiple times and the outcome was never certain until
midnight struck. It was also more excitement than most users could
handle, as the contest message board went absolutely nuts (update:
it's still out of control).
Mario, Link, and Snake turned out
to be the only easy wins to predict, all with prediction percentages
at close to 70% or higher. Scorpion, Samus, and Crono turned out to
be the hard picks, with around 30% and lower getting those wins
right. Cloud and Sephiroth hovered around the 50% range, proving
that their impressive showings thus far have surprised more than a
few of the entrants. The overall average prediction rate for the
third round was down to 50.1%. So most people were still getting the
matches right, but only just barely. In fact, in the South
and West divisions there was actually an average of less than 50%
for the first time in the tournament. Only about 43% of the entrants
managed to correctly predict the outcomes of those
matches.
The number of voters has been gradually increasing
as the tournament has progressed, but it was up sharply for the
third round. Between the first and second round the average number
of voters increased by 4000, but between the second and third round
it was up by an additional 14000. The polls now average nearly 78000
voters per match, and the third round bouts have taken over most of
the Top 10 Most Popular Polls list (6 of the 8 battles made the
list, all near the top).
The average win margin was down by
10% to a difference of only 26% per match, but the actual vote gap
dropped by only about 2500 down to 20000. So the characters are
separated by approximately the same amount of votes, but their
overall vote counts are much higher so the percentages have
shrunk.
(continued) |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/26/2002 8:24:39 PM | Message
Detail
|
Since the matches are becoming closer, the
impressive individual vote counts of previous rounds have all but
disappeared. Link was the only character to make the Top 10 Biggest
Vote Getters list this round, with an impressive 62000 (good for 2nd
on the list) over the "thanks for coming out" effort of Jill. Link
is obviously the only character to make the list 3 times so far.
He's had perhaps the easiest division to contend with, but the young
Hylian is definitely looking strong.
Donkey Kong had the
lowest vote total by far of the round, landing him at 8th on the Top
10 Lowest Vote Getters list. He was the only character that really
looked out of place in the third round.
The close nature of
many of the battles paved the way for some very impressive losers
totals. In particular, Mega Man and Sonic managed amazing vote
counts (Sonic with over 40000, Mega Man with nearly 50000) that
placed them well ahead of many of the winners'. The Blue Bomber is
currently an unbelievable 18th on the overall list, while the speedy
hedgehog is merely a very amazing 27th. They can certainly hold
their heads high, even in their defeat.
The fourth round
promises to continue the excitement of the third, and maybe even add
to it. Don't go anywhere.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
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