| FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest
(Updated Nightly) |
| | Page 3 of 9 | | |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/20/2002 12:41:27 AM | Message
Detail
|
Thats good. I actually didn't have any spam
today (WOOHOO), that'd have to be the first time ever, that I can
remember. I guess I'll have about 20-30 tomorrow though.
I
can't see today's poll featuring on many lists, except for maybe the
most popular poll list (6600 votes or so already). That should save
you some work.
---
Everyone that says "There's no such thing
as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this board. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/20/2002 1:01:05 AM | Message
Detail
|
Yeah, it was really nice today with only the one
list to change. I used the extra time to update the full lists on
the website, even though I'm not scheduled to do that until
tomorrow. :)
So, the website is now updated. And this is
probably the last day to vote in the Upset Poll, for anyone who
hasn't. I'll probably be changing it at the end of tomorrow.
Additional poll suggestions are still welcome.
I think that's
about all I have to say for tonight. Although I would like to
express my shock that only 53.5% of the entrants predicted Cloud to
win this one. What the heck? The percentage should be higher than
that, shouldn't it? It seems Cloud has been
underestimated.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/20/2002 1:01:43 AM | Message
Detail
|
Dante over Ryo... ouch. Don't worry... I'm not
getting the 4 for this either. I can't ever believe I thought Lara
beating Crono made sense. I obviously underestimated those who hate
Lara, along with the fact that PC games generally aren't as popular
as their console counterparts, along with the fact that Chrono
Trigger is an extremely widely-loved game.
*consoles himself
with his perfect North Division... if Cloud can make it
happen*
Oh, and I may be jumping the gun a bit... but after
seeing these numbers, I am definitely feeling that Crono has become
the favourite to win his
division.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your
massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/20/2002 1:21:04 AM | Message
Detail
|
Hmm, that's a good point about Crono. Snake has
underwhelmed and Crono has overachieved (at least in my opinion).
That's going to be one heck of a division final (anyone mind if I
count Aeris out already?).
Cool, one of us will have a
perfect North Division. Go Mario. :)
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/20/2002 2:30:44 AM | Message
Detail
|
Go Cloud. ^_^
Not that I like him better
necessarily, but I've been backing my bracket even in cases which I
would never have voted (Duke Nukem over Iori, for
instance).
anyone mind if I count Aeris out
already?
A little. Maybe I'll be proven horribly wrong,
but I believe this one will be reasonably close (10-15% vote gap).
Basically, I consider Aeris more popular than either Squall or
Knuckles.
And if she wins... well, there will have been
bigger upsets IMO. Still, I'd rather not have my East division be
totally scrapped, so I'll pull for
Snake.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: javajim
| Posted: 8/20/2002 9:38:51 PM | Message
Detail
|
| Poll suggestion, if you haven't done it already:
either the character least deserving of being in this contest, or
the character that should have been in the contest, but was left out
(like Rayman?). This seems to be a popular topic on this board.
|
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/20/2002 11:43:44 PM | Message
Detail
|
Hmm... the difference between Aeris and Snake is
a tad higher than I predicted, for now... still, it's Snake's
closest match thus far, and doesn't exactly renew my confidence in
him to defeat Crono.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think
your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in
upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/21/2002 12:21:20 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Stats:
1 - Lara Croft (50:1) -
21571 / 29.13% (74059)
5 - Crono (33:1) -
52488 / 70.87% (74059) - 5541 /
33.1%
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Most Popular
Polls (by vote totals)
1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371
2) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife -
74365
3) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059
4)
Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
5) Solid Snake vs.
Squall Leonhart - 71676
6) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link -
71262
7) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
8) Jill
Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
9) Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan -
69969
10) Mega Man vs. Ms. Pac-Man -
68296
Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters
1)
Mega Man - 63039
2) Sephiroth - 61367
3) (ii)
Mega Man - 60914
4) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
5)
Link - 59509
6) Cloud Strife - 54643
7) (ii)
Link - 53992
8) (ii) Sephiroth - 53956
9) Sonic
the Hedgehog - 53023
10) (iii) Crono -
52488
Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
(based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the
winner)
1) (ii) Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
2)
(ii) Bomberman vs. Jill Valentine 32.5%
3) (iii) Lara
Croft vs. Crono 33.1%
4) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs.
Max Payne
5) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon
57.7%
6) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong
43.7%
7) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%
8)
Jill Valentine 50.8% vs. Kirby 49.2%
9) Alucard
51.4% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 48.6%
10) (ii) Crono
51.8% vs. Dante
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/21/2002 12:24:52 AM | Message
Detail
|
Sorry this was late. It's been a really busy day
for me. And I realize I didn't do the usual match analysis today,
but that will have to wait until sometime tomorrow (same with the
poll change). I've got just enough left in me to do a minor update
of the website and check to see if I'm being slaughtered in the user
tourney. I'll catch up after I've had some rest.
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/21/2002 12:56:51 AM | Message
Detail
|
javajim: Good suggestions. I particularly like
the first one. The second one will be much harded to come up with
5-6 poll answers that would satisfy everyone. Although if you'd like
to give it a shot go right ahead. :)
Website's got its
update, more to come tomorrow (I'll probably stick the few analysis
posts I've recovered in the miscellaneous section when I get a
chance). Zzzz...
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: GoldSlime35
| Posted: 8/21/2002 1:14:01 AM | Message
Detail
|
| I have a poll idea. It could be what is your
record on the easiest or hardest to predict list. |
| From: Cecil
XIX | Posted: 8/21/2002 2:00:54 AM | Message
Detail
|
Excellent Stats, of course. This contest has
been surprisingly dramatic.
---
- Cecil The Nineteenth.
Really. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/21/2002 10:58:21 AM | Message
Detail
|
GoldSlime35: That would be cool. The only
problem is that the lists keep changing. :) The poll would only be
able to be up for a short time (depending), but I like the
idea.
Okay, the website's been updated with the rest of the
stuff and the new poll is up. I'm only going to leave this one up
for a day or two (probably) so that I can get to some of the other
ideas. The previous two polls are viewable in the archive if you
want to see how they turned out.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/21/2002 12:01:46 PM | Message
Detail
|
I'm not sure if anyone other than Jjukil is
interested, but I've added the few analysis posts that were
recovered to the Miscellaneous section. We could only find 5 of the
11 that were lost, but that's pretty good considering. I may add
some of the new stuff to it later, but I wanted to get that up for
now. Also, it may be too late, but if anyone else wants to try to
find some of the lost posts follow the directions given by Jjukil
and myself in some of our previous posts in this
topic.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/21/2002 12:19:22 PM | Message
Detail
|
More great work Solar.
Awesome!
---
Muse of the Day: If the Flintstones lived
in the prehistoric era, than why did they celebrate Christmas and
Thanksgiving? |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/21/2002 12:55:06 PM | Message
Detail
|
Ah good, Samberdog is back. :) Now whatever
happened to that Who Cares? guy and his company stats? Those were
kind of interesting.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/22/2002 12:04:44 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
11 - Aeris (90:1) -
32702 / 43.46% (75247)
2 - Solid Snake (8:1)
- 42545 / 56.54% (75247) - 11317 /
67.5%
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Closest Matches
(difference in brackets)
1) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06%
vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
2) Strider Hiryu
52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
3) Jill
Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% -
(6.68%)
4) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower
45.68% - (8.64%)
5) Pikachu 54.41% vs.
PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%)
6) Tidus
55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% -
(10.92%)
7) (iii) Aeris 43.46% vs. Solid Snake
56.54% - (13.08%)
8) Kyo Kusanagi 57.79% vs.
Abe 42.21% - (15.58%)
9) (ii) Samus Aran
57.85% vs. Ryu 42.15% - (15.70%)
10) (ii)
Bomberman 42.03% vs. Jill Valentine 57.97% -
(15.94%)
Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps
(difference in brackets)
1) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs.
Aya Brea 30478 - (1320)
2) Strider Hiryu
30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001)
3) Jill
Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702)
4)
Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 -
(4975)
5) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower
28190 - (5326)
6) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire
Redfield 28117 - (6887)
7) Kyo Kusanagi
31160 vs. Abe 22760 - (8400)
8) Serious Sam
32301 vs. Mr. Driller 22696 - (9605)
9)
(iii) Aeris 32702 vs. Solid Snake 42545 -
(9843)
10) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog 33602 vs. Tidus
23516 - (10086)
Top 10 Most Popular
Polls (by vote totals)
1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371
2) (iii) Aeris vs. Solid Snake - 75247
3)
(iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife - 74365
4) (iii) Lara Croft
vs. Crono - 74059
5) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud -
73242
6) Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart -
71676
7) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
8)
Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
9) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby -
70376
10) Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan -
69969
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by
votes)
1) Kirby - 32837
2) (iii) Aeris -
32702
3) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
4) (ii) Ryu -
28630
5) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190
6) Claire
Redfield - 28117
7) Raziel - 27661
8) (ii)
Bomberman - 27432
9) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna -
26748
10) PaRappa The Rapper -
25736
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Stats Discussion:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3916637 |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/22/2002 12:08:14 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonights will probably affect a few lists too,
especially if it stays this close. Dunno why I picked Pac-man today,
it wasn't the smartest choice. Guess I'll stay on 66 for even longer
then (I'm probably going to get three wrong in a row here, which is
not good.)
---
Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a
stupid question", has obviously never visited this board. |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/22/2002 12:14:10 AM | Message
Detail
|
Yep, I'm back ^_^
I know it's been said
before, but, by the looks of it, Snake is going to have a tough time
with Crono. Beating a FFVII character is quite an achievement, but I
think it was a little closer than most expected. Snake can probably
take Crono, but I no longer think he has a real chance to win it all
anymore. But we'll see.
PacMan VS Scorpion does look like it
will make some more work for you... I hope PacMan can come back, but
I'm doubtful. Two 3rd round losses... blah.
---
Muse of the
Day: If the Flintstones lived in the prehistoric era, than why
did they celebrate Christmas and Thanksgiving? |
| From: CaoCon
| Posted: 8/22/2002 12:16:00 AM | Message
Detail
|
bump
---
"I will gladly put my life on
the line." Taishi Ci DW3 |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/22/2002 12:22:07 AM | Message
Detail
|
Ugh, another long day today. I missed the
analyses again so that's 3 to catch up on tomorrow. I think... did
I? I'm too tired to even remember.
The website's been given
its scheduled update, and the poll needs voters. That's all from me
until I've had some rest.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: GoldSlime35
| Posted: 8/22/2002 1:06:22 AM | Message
Detail
|
| You can do the easiest to predict list because
it isn't possible for that list to change anymore. And you can do
the hardest to predict list after the contest is over. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/22/2002 1:09:14 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Alucard vs. Cloud
analysis.
Another impressive victory for Cloud. Alucard
showed some strength in getting this far, but Cloud was just too
much for him.
Much to no one's surprise, the voters really
came out for Cloud again. This match ranks 2nd on the most popular
polls list, with 1st and 3rd position being taken by Cloud's second
and first round matches (at the time - this has since changed). If
Cloud's in the poll you can be sure a ton of people are going to
vote.
Of course, Cloud received the lion's share of those
votes (as usual). However, his almost 52000 votes was 3000 lower
than his first round match and 8000 fewer than his second, probably
owing to the fight put up by Alucard. Alucard's vote count dropped
to less than 23000 after hovering around the 35000 mark for his
first 2 battles.
With 70% of the vote taken, Cloud's average
percentage is around 75% now. Alucard on the other hand has an
average of just less that 50% of the vote, thanks to a tough battle
against Tails, and a not so impressive victory over Duke, and only
30% this time. Better luck next year.
Biggest surprise of
this battle? It has to be that only 53.5% of the entrants got it
right. Considering how strong Cloud has shown himself to be, I'm not
sure who half the people were picking to beat him. Fox, Tails,
Pikachu, Alucard, Duke? I guess there was some decent competition in
his half of the division, but I still would have expected that
number to be a little higher. 80% had Cloud after the first round,
70% after the second, and now 54% after the third. Expect that
number to be slashed again if Cloud can win his next
match.
And I don't think I need to mention it, but this win
sets up the much-anticipated divisional championship between Mario
and Cloud. Destined to be one of the most significant matches of the
whole tournament, this bout will undoubtably affect a lot of
brackets dramatically. Coming in I'd say that Cloud has the
advantage, but it's never a good idea to count Mario out. Should be
a good one.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: VK2099
| Posted: 8/22/2002 1:53:49 PM | Message
Detail
|
Great stats. I've beeen waiting for rd 2 stats
since Mario vs DK.
---
"The only thing that comes to a
sleeping man is dreams."
- Tupac Shakur |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/22/2002 4:20:11 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some brief Lara vs. Crono analysis.
Crono
continues to impress the unbelievers. This time his victim was the
number 1 seeded Lara Croft. The buxom tomb raider had a pretty good
run up to this point, but she was even less trouble for Crono than
Dante had been last round.
So, our first number 1 seed has
fallen. That would be particularly significant if not for the fact
that Lara was probably seeded a little too high. Still, it's
notable.
Crono has averaged about 71% of the vote combined
for his matches, which is almost exactly what he got this time
around. That's not too shabby at all. He should definitely be able
to put up a decent fight against the underperforming Snake next
round. Lara ends up with an average of just around 53%. A number 1
seed probably should have been able to do a little better than
that.
Crono joins the 50000 vote club for the first time,
with 52000 of 'em. He almost made it in the first round when he had
49000, but dropped farther back against Dante with only 44000.
Lara's total has been continually decreasing, starting with a
moderately impressive 45000 and dropping by 9000 in the second round
and another 14000 to this round's count of only 22000.
The
biggest surprise of this match was the total vote count, which
managed to reach 3rd place on the Top 10 list (at the time). Pretty
amazing considering Crono's highest previous match was ranked 16th
(against Dante) and Lara's previous high was 20th (against Chop
Chop). Where did all these voters come from? This is also the first
vote total to ever surpass one of Cloud's matches. Was there a lot
of interesting in this particular matchup, or are the third round
matches getting more popular in general? We'll have to wait and
see.
Only 33.1% of the entrants picked Crono to win, which
was pretty much to be expected. Only 50% had him advancing past
Dante, so it's not surprising to see another chunk of that fail to
predict his match against an opponent with the kind of seeding and
odds that Lara had. Still, it does rank as the third hardest match
to predict. Might've been nice to see a few more people than that
get it right, but it certainly doesn't rank as one of the bigger
surprises.
Crono will meet Snake in the divisional final,
which could prove to be a pivotal match. I'm sure a lot of people
will have Snake making it this far while only a few (33%) have
Crono. If Crono were to win again it would wreak havoc with plenty
of brackets. Can he topple the heavily favored Solid Snake? Won't be
long until we know.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: MMXcalibur
| Posted: 8/22/2002 4:31:30 PM | Message
Detail
|
Very impressive solarshadow. *claps*
I hope
Mega Man takes care of Sephiroth.
*looks at
sig*
---
(>^_^)-( ()===========<D
<(0_o'^) ---KIRBY X-BUSTER!!
MEGA MAN(rd.
3):Vote against over-rated villains!!! |
| From: Cid
| Posted: 8/22/2002 4:35:02 PM | Message
Detail
|
| Great work, indeed. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/23/2002 12:00:55 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
1 - Pac-Man
(60:1) - 28936 / 42.26% (68475)
5 - Scorpion
(150:1) - 39539 / 57.74% (68475) - 2906 /
17.3%
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Closest Matches
(difference in brackets)
1) (ii) Donkey Kong 51.06%
vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
2) Strider Hiryu
52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% - (5.14%)
3) Jill
Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby 46.66% -
(6.68%)
4) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower
45.68% - (8.64%)
5) Pikachu 54.41% vs.
PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% - (8.82%)
6) Tidus
55.46% vs. Claire Redfield 44.54% -
(10.92%)
7) (iii) Aeris 43.46% vs. Solid Snake
56.54% - (13.08%)
8) (iii) Pac-Man 42.26%
vs. Scorpion 57.74% - (15.48%)
9) Kyo Kusanagi
57.79% vs. Abe 42.21% - (15.58%)
10) (ii)
Samus Aran 57.85% vs. Ryu 42.15% -
(15.70%)
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by
votes)
1) Kirby - 32837
2) (iii) Aeris -
32702
3) (ii) Aya Brea - 30478
4) (iii) Pac-Man
- 28936
5) (ii) Ryu - 28630
5) Miles "Tails"
Prower - 28190
6) Claire Redfield - 28117
7)
Raziel - 27661
8) (ii) Bomberman - 27432
9) (ii)
Knuckles the Echidna - 26748
10) PaRappa The Rapper -
25736
Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict
(based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the
winner)
1) (iii) Pac-Man vs. Scorpion 17.3%
2) (ii)
Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
3) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill
Valentine 32.5%
4) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono
33.1%
5) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max Payne
6)
Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon 57.7%
7)
Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong 43.7%
8) Abe 49.5%
vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%
9) Jill Valentine 50.8% vs.
Kirby 49.2%
10) Alucard 51.4% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower
48.6%
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/23/2002 12:22:03 AM | Message
Detail
|
Wow. That was a tough match to predict. I
guess I shouldn't feel too bad for missing it.
More good
work. And the website keeps looking better and
better.
---
Muse of the Day: If a man is talking in the
forest and there's no woman there to hear him, is he still
wrong? |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/23/2002 12:55:06 AM | Message
Detail
|
MMXcalibur: Thank you very much, I appreciate
it. And it's always nice to see one of the board's most popular and
respected users visiting the stats topic. :) As for the Mega
Man/Sephiroth duel, I'm afraid to even speculate on it. This is one
of the few times I've actually chickened out from making even any
vague predictions. :)
Samberdog: Yeah, we knew this one was
going to be nasty if Scorpion won, but still, wow. Only half the
people that picked Scorpion last time picked him again this time. I
suppose it could have been worse though. I can only imagine what the
number would be like if he won his next match. But I really don't
think he'll beat Link, so I guess we'll never know. :)
The
website's been updated. I even updated the Upsets section, even
though I wasn't scheduled to do that. Notice who the only second and
third round odds-based upsets belong to? Pretty impressive. As for
the analyses, I got 2 of the 3 done today, which means it'll have to
be another 2 for tomorrow. I don't plan to stay behind with those
much longer, it's just that I've been so busy lately it couldn't be
helped. Also, I'll probably change the poll tomorrow. I know it
hasn't got very many votes yet but that's probably because it's not
the most interesting poll. :) Plus, I've got a batch of suggestions
to get through so I don't want to leave it up too long. So vote
while you've got the chance. That's all from me
tonight.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/23/2002 3:13:17 AM | Message
Detail
|
Glad to see you're catching up with the
analyses. And the next two should both be very interesting, each in
their own way... the Snake/Aeris match, featuring the Contest's
just-shy-of-most impressive loser, and the Scorpion/Pac-Man match,
which it seems has tripped up just about everybody.
Today's a
bit of a down day for the Contest, I think... this is possibly the
last obvious match left (though I don't give Scorp much more chance
against Link than I gave Jill). But tomorrow, we'll have the
hard-to-predict Samus/Sonic affair, followed by the tournament's
first true blockbuster. And from there on, it's the final week. Or,
for most contestants, where the real money is going to be made. It's
scary to think that half the total points that can be achieved will
come from those final seven matches. This will make or break
everybody's entry, make no mistake about it...
*is licking
his wounds after Pac's loss dropped him to the 91st
percentile*
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your
massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: dimeat
| Posted: 8/23/2002 11:18:33 AM | Message
Detail
|
| Yay, the correct Scorpion position moved me up
to the Top50. I'm at 33, tied for 29 :) |
| From: Yesmar
| Posted: 8/23/2002 1:49:41 PM | Message
Detail
|
Well Crono's and Snake's victories completely
messed up my bracket. I was regretting having Lara and Aeris win
anyway, but I should take some consolation in that I predicted half
of the upset victories correct (including Scorpion's.) Good show on
Aeris' part though. Did a lot better then I expected.
Also, it would be cool on solarshadow's site if he did how
the contest would have happened if the seeding had been completely
accurate. You could only predict it up to the final four though.
---
"Here's something else Satan created,
Japanimation."--Mike Nelson on MST3K |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/23/2002 8:53:01 PM | Message
Detail
|
I'd say todays poll will be number 1 in most
popular - over 73600 votes already, with over 2 hours left. Seems
like theres been a few double (or more) votes for Link (that's why I
think its so much higher anyway). Could be wrong, but it seems weird
its going to have at least 5000 more than the next most popular
poll. Maybe Link should be disqualified due to cheating with Jill
winning by default? I guess I can hope anyway.
I'm also
interested in the analyses, they are good to read and always seem to
bring up stuff I didn't realise.
---
Everyone that says
"There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never
visited this board. |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/23/2002 10:14:05 PM | Message
Detail
|
Actually, someone else pointed out in another
topic that the link from Penny Arcade probably jacked up the vote
count. I'll agree to that. After all, a week ago or so they posted a
link directly to the FAQ page for Moonbase Commander...and it showed
up on the Top 10 FAQ pages list the next day. (It's fallen out of
the Top 50 since then. =P )
Of course, the interlinking
affected PA, too--earlier it was nearly impossible to access the
comic, I heard. (I also read a comment by Aetherspoon at that point
that said Gamefaqs has a miniature Slashdot effect. It made me
chuckle; I wonder if he knows about the PA effect. <g>
)
Question: Where, exactly, is the stat site's poll? I've
been looking around, but can't find it anywhere.
Thanks,
Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/23/2002 10:27:38 PM | Message
Detail
|
I'm also interested in the analyses, they are
good to read and always seem to bring up stuff I didn't
realise.
Good to hear. When compiling the stats I often
notice little things that are interesting or notable so I try to
point them out.
Question: Where, exactly, is the stat
site's poll? I've been looking around, but can't find it
anywhere.
Usually it's on the right side of the main
page. Occasionally, when Bravenet (the poll's host) isn't
cooperating, it's nowhere to be found. Try again later if it doesn't
appear. That's a bit frustrating, but it doesn't happen too
often.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: marsman57
| Posted: 8/23/2002 10:48:59 PM | Message
Detail
|
Hey, sorry I haven't posted lately. I haven't
been able to get on a computer hardly any because of problems
getting a wireless card for college. I'm home for the weekend though
so that means lots of online fun. Serious stat props for solarshadow
as usual. I did check my cache btw, but nothing about the missing
pages. Sorry!
---
"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why
Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/23/2002 11:05:14 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some brief Aeris vs. Solid Snake
analysis.
After a couple of decent yet less than impressive
victories against Squall and Knuckles, this battle was considered to
be the real test for Snake. He won the match, but has he proven
himself to be a force to be reckoned with in the later rounds?
Probably not.
Snake's vote percentage has been continually
declining, from 65% to 61% and now down to 57% against Aeris. It's
true that he's had some comparably difficult opponents, but he
hasn't been showing the kind of strength that one of the "elite
five" should be. If he's only able to beat Aeris by that much, what
chance does he have against a more popular Square character like
Crono or Cloud? Or am I underestimating Aeris'
popularity?
Aeris had a good run, beating Kasumi by a
reasonable margin and then blowing out Tina in the second round
(still the 12th biggest blowout). She joined the 50000 vote club in
that match, which has only 8 members (13 if you include 2-time and
3-time members - Snake is not a member). And against Snake she
managed 32702 votes, good enough for 2nd on the Top 10 Most
Impressive Losers list. Aside from Kirby she is the only other
losing character to achieve a vote count higher than a winning
character (7 of them, to be exact). That's not bad at all. Perhaps
she stood a better chance against Snake than I thought.
What
impressed me most about this match was its vote total. Over 75000
total votes were cast, good enough for an amazing 2nd place on the
Most Popular Polls list. This is only the 2nd time one of Cloud's
matches has been topped. I guess it speaks for the popularity of the
two characters, although there seems to be a trend of third round
matches drawing more voters as well.
The next match for Snake
is against the overachieving Crono. Before the tournament started I
would have said Snake was easily the favorite to win this one, but
now I'd give the edge to Crono. Either way it should be a good one,
and expect it to be close.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/23/2002 11:44:36 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Pac-Man vs. Scorpion
analysis.
Let's just start with the obvious, shall we? This
match was brutally hard to predict. A staggeringly low 17.3% of
contest entrants picked this one correctly, making it by far the
hardest match to predict of the tournament so far. Why did so many
people get it wrong? Well, keep in mind that only 33.6% thought
Scorpion would get this far in the first place. The majority
(likely) had him losing to Max Payne in the second round. Pac-Man
was no slouch of an opponent either with plenty of experience in the
video game industry and a lot of old school charm. But somehow
Scorpion managed to emerge victorious on both occasions and surprise
a whole lot of people.
Scorpion has defied the odds yet
again. There has only been 1 odds-based upset in the third round and
there was only 1 in the second round - both by Scorpion. With 150:1
odds Scorpion took down the favored Max Payne (80:1) and now Pac-Man
(60:1). In all the other second and third round matches the
character with the better odds has won. I'd say that's an impressive
stat. Why did the entrants underestimate Scorpion so badly? Or how
has he overachieved by so much? I can't answer that, I picked him to
win both matches. ;)
Pac-Man is our second #1 seeded
casualty. Only Mario and Sonic remain (for now). And Pac-Man didn't
really live up to that seeding. He didn't even come close to
impressing anyone until his very last match. His first battle
against Goemon got him over 40000 votes, but his second against Kyo
earned him 7th place on the Least Impressive Winners list. However,
his loss to Scorpion was respectable, and good for 4th on the Most
Impressive Losers list (2nd highest of the third round, as well).
I'd like to thank Pac-Man for coming out, but his legendary status
and great contributions to the video game industry just weren't
enough to carry him through the tournament. We salute your efforts,
Pac-Man.
At 68000 total votes this match was a little more
typical than the last 3, which strayed into the 74000+ range. Still,
it was the 11th most popular poll. I'm going to attribute that to
the apparent increased interest in the third round. All of the
matches have seen a jump in voters, with this one probably being
slightly less popular due to the slightly less popular characters
involved. We'll see if that holds true when the results of the rest
of the matches come in.
Scorpion's been coasting along at
about the 40000 vote level for each of his matches, which is not bad
at all. The battle against Pac-Man was certainly his hardest yet,
but it's nothing compared to what he'll face against Link next
round. It's been a good Cinderella run for the yellow ninja, but I
think it's about to come to an end.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: ChOcObO
HuNtEr | Posted: 8/23/2002 11:47:18 PM | Message
Detail
|
all i can say is - nice
---
0 0:0?!!!
Damn Chocobo minigame!
|
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/24/2002 1:27:36 AM | Message
Detail
|
Well, it looks like the next poll isn't going up
anytime soon. Which is a shame, because I was all ready to update
the stats in record time. Oh well, I'm giving up for the night.
Enjoy the new analyses for now and I'll be back with the usual
updates sometime tomorrow (if the new poll's up by
then...).
Speaking of new polls, the stats website has a new
one. Well, it's more of a variation on an old one, really. Have a
look and have a vote if you're so inclined. The previous polls can
all be found in the poll archive if you're interested in how any
turned out (follow the link on the results page).
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Notti
| Posted: 8/24/2002 1:49:00 AM | Message
Detail
|
Imagine if this poll stayed up all day tomorrow?
Might taint the stat pages. So here are the stats as they were the
last time I updated my browser's cache:
The Great GameFAQs
Character Battle
South Division Semifinals: Jill Valentine
vs. Link
Jill Valentine 27.27% 22379
Link 72.73%
59678
TOTAL VOTES 82057
---
•~• •¦• Nottingham •~•
•¦•
‡‡ "Never gonna get me. Never gonna get me. Never
gonna get me I'm the..." ‡‡
http://www.infidels.org/~meta/getalife/ |
| From: broodwars
| Posted: 8/24/2002 1:51:48 AM | Message
Detail
|
Quite frankly, I think the stats of the post
above me should stick. The votes that put Link over 6000 came after
the 24-hour time limit expired...and I still think there's something
fishy about how quickly those votes came...
---
"Guns don't
kill people! I DO!"- WarCraft III's Dwarven Rifleman
"Your pain
shall be Legendary!"- WarCraft III's Arthas |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/24/2002 2:00:43 AM | Message
Detail
|
Well, to me, this result was already "tainted"
by the PA flood. So these extra hours don't make much of a
difference. If anything, they just confirm that something was
awry.
Not that I'm saying PA readers shouldn't be allowed to
vote, or anything (I am one)...I'm just saying that it's likely to
be a one-time occurrance. If all of them came back every day to vote
from now on, I wouldn't mind at all =)
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/24/2002 2:03:16 AM | Message
Detail
|
Yeah, that's what the numbers looked like at
around midnight. Thanks for posting them, Notti.
Looks like
another asterisk for this match. Link wouldn't normally have broken
60000. Of course, this match probably wouldn't have reached 80000
total votes without the link over from Penny-Arcade, so there are a
number of uncontrollable factors altering this one. Oh well, I just
hope CJayC gets the next poll up soon. Sonic was screwed over last
time with a shortened poll. I'll feel sorry for him if it happens
again.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/24/2002 2:43:18 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
3 - Jill Valentine
(180:1) - 23342 / 27.37% (85273)
2 - Link
(9:1) - 61931 / 72.63% (85273) - 11569 /
69.0%
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Biggest Vote
Gaps (difference in brackets)
1) Mega Man 63039
vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) (ii) Mega Man
60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500)
3)
Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 -
(52765)
4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 -
(48433)
5) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife
59926 - (44481)
6) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023
vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
7) (ii) Sephiroth
53956 vs. Crash Bandicoot 12235 - (41721)
8)
(iii) Mario 52333 vs. Donkey Kong 11507 -
(40826)
9) (iii) Jill Valentine 23342 vs. Link
61931 - (38589)
10) Knuckles the Echidna
49964 vs. Akira Yuki 12057 -
(37907)
Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote
totals)
1) (iii) Jill Valentine vs. Link - 85273
2)
(ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife - 75371
3) (iii) Aeris vs.
Solid Snake - 75247
4) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife -
74365
5) (iii) Lara Croft vs. Crono - 74059
6)
Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
7) Solid Snake vs.
Squall Leonhart - 71676
8) (ii) Strider Hiryu vs. Link -
71262
9) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
10) Jill
Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
Top 10 Biggest Vote
Getters
1) Mega Man - 63039
2) (iii) Link -
61931
3) Sephiroth - 61367
4) (ii) Mega Man -
60914
5) (ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
6) Link -
59509
7) Cloud Strife - 54643
8) (ii) Link -
53992
9) (ii) Sephiroth - 53956
10) Sonic the
Hedgehog - 53023
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/24/2002 3:27:01 AM | Message
Detail
|
Okay, the next poll came up just in time. So
there's tonight's stats for you. The website's been updated too.
Don't forget to vote in the new website poll.
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/24/2002 4:12:07 AM | Message
Detail
|
*votes Snake*
Pity about today's tainted
results. Glad to see the next match is up, and also glad to see it's
one that, as of right now, can't yet be called. As this is an
auto-loss for me, I am glad that either way it goes, it'll screw up
a lot of people. Though I'm stilling pulling for
Samus.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/24/2002 4:18:32 AM | Message
Detail
|
Heh. Well, Link's extra boosts may have brought
him into the 60000 votes club...but there's still one
consolation:
Even with the extra two hours and PA voters, he
still couldn't manage the highest vote total.
Go Blue
Bomber! =)
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/24/2002 12:05:53 PM | Message
Detail
|
Yes Jjukil, but Link wasn't facing Ms. Pacman.
60000 votes against the Heroine of RE, a character that took out
both Kirby and Bomberman, is quite impressive.
^
Sorry, I
just need to stand up for my boy Link, and we can't get too attached
to Megaman, his match is tomorrow.
Crazy poll though, did
anyone find out why it wasn't updated on time? If an influx
of PA readers did come to this site, it didn't seem to change the
vote ratio for Jill/Link. The percentages seemed to stay pretty much
the same, which is interesting.
More great work! Scorpion
getting this far is pretty unbelievable, good job picking him to do
it. I think today's Samus/Sonic match (Go Sonic!) should be another
one of the hardest to predict, but that's pretty
obvious.
Keep it up!
---
Muse of the Day: If
electricity comes from electrons, there where does morality come
from? |
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