| FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest
(Updated Nightly) |
| | Page 2 of 9 | | |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/16/2002 3:41:25 AM | Message
Detail
|
There you are, KSOT.
Did you go through the
old stat topic regularly before it got deleted?
If you did, read
my message on the last page....
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/16/2002 3:44:40 AM | Message
Detail
|
Lara - 2
Well, I like that...
maybe she has a chance at taking at Crono. Maybe my bracket isn't
domed...
Yeah, right.
I too was surprised by the fact
that Morrigan's victory was an upset. I can see more people picking
Spyro, though, because he was more recognisable (due to TV ads,
etc.). But I don't know anybody who likes Spyro (and I mean
anybody) and I know quite a few Darkstalkers and MvC fans. I
figured Morri would be much more liked, and I was correct. It seems
most people picked by recognisability though. This seems to be a
general trend, too... how else to explain Mario as the
favourite?
Oh, and about that new poll... where's Tidus? I
mean... FFX... number one game here... damn, it made sense when I
put my bracket together. Oh well, just so you know, that single
"other" vote is a vote for Tidus. The only other one on that list
that I mispicked was Gordon, but that was one I wished I could
change come voting day. Tidus' and Raziel's losses are the only ones
which actually caught me off guard, though I have five more losses
which I blame on stupidity.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I
think your massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they
fold in upon themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/16/2002 1:28:43 PM | Message
Detail
|
Tidus didn't make the poll because the criteria
were that nearly half the people had to predict the match
incorrectly (maximum of about 10% difference between prediction
percentages) and there had to be a fair amount of surprise/outrage
on the boards. Sonic was predicted to win by 61% of the people, so
not enough picked Tidus for his inclusion. Even though I also picked
Tidus for the same reasons you did and the second "other" vote up
there is mine for Tidus. :) I actually predicted all of the poll
characters' losses correctly. The theme of my bracket seems to be
that I get the hard ones right and the easy ones wrong: hard
schmard, easy whoopsie. Abe and Strider didn't make the poll
because, while a lot of people got that one wrong, nobody was
particularly shocked, probably due to the coin flip nature of the
battle. Also, I was trying to limit the number of poll choices so it
doesn't wreak havoc with my webpage formatting. :)
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/16/2002 1:37:50 PM | Message
Detail
|
I should point out that the website is now fully
updated, including the glorious North Division prediction numbers.
Finally I can get rid of those darn asterisks. :) Tripod was giving
me a hard time last night which is why I opted to postpone the
update. Hopefully that won't happen too often (although this is the
second time...). I guess that's about it. Don't forget to vote in
the poll. :)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/16/2002 6:25:19 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Samus vs. Ryu analysis.
Wow,
the number 4 seeds are really taking a beating at the hands of the
number 5 seeds. First Dante, then Max, and now Ryu. Donkey Kong is
the only number 4 seed to survive (maybe because he was facing a
12th seed, although Aya almost beat him).
Samus "Street
Fighter Killer" Aran has moved on to the next round. She had a
harder time against Ryu than she did against Ken, but there was
never really any doubt about the outcome (although it was the 8th
closest match). Against Ken she managed 65% of the vote, compared to
58% this time. I guess Ryu is only 7% more popular than Ken. :)
Ryu's 42% of the vote was nearly half of the 81% he had against
CATS.
This was the 10th most popular poll of the tournament,
with nearly 68000 total votes cast. That's 10000 more than Ryu's
first match and about 5000 more than Samus'. Interestingly enough,
Samus' vote total ended up at around 40000 for both matches (41000
against Ken and 39000 against Ryu). Ryu's total dropped from 47000
against CATS down to less than 29000 against Samus.
80% of
the contest entrants picked Samus to beat Ken, but only 58% thought
she could take down Ryu (or CATS) as well. I guess that says
something for Ryu's popularity, unless all those picks were for CATS
(I doubt it). Still, the Street Fighter characters were no match for
the metal-clad bounty hunter, and all of the fighting game fans'
hopes now rest with Scorpion. Samus' next battle will be against
Sonic, which could prove to be a good match. I would say Sonic is
the favorite, but Samus has demonstrated more popularity than I'd
expected, so she may give the blue hedgehog a run for his
money.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/16/2002 10:01:10 PM | Message
Detail
|
I feel pretty stupid having Ken beat Samus now.
I think Ryu is 14% more liked than Ken too (30% diff to 16% diff) -
thats the way I'm looking at it anyway :-).
---
Everyone that
says "There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously
never visited this board. |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/16/2002 10:28:40 PM | Message
Detail
|
Don't feel stupid Ringworm, you're probably way
higher than my 37 points anyways;)
---
"Everything gold does
not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost" |
| From: Ngamer64
| Posted: 8/16/2002 10:52:45 PM | Message
Detail
|
Hm... well, after today's thrashing, I think we
need to change our official stance. There is now an "elite six" in
this tournament. Yeah, yeah, the oppenents have been weak,
(certainly the weakest of both the first and second rounds) but
regardless, MegaMan is a huge threat. I still think Sephy will beat,
but it looks like the margin of victory will be razor-thin either
way. And whichever one pulls it off, both will give Link a run for
his money about equally. Very
interesting...
---
the-elite.net |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/16/2002 11:37:49 PM | Message
Detail
|
Mega Man has certainly impressed me. However, I
hope this is the last time he impresses me because I have Sephiroth
going a long way. :)
You might even want to consider an
"elite seven". Crono is starting to earn himself some respect.
Although maybe the suggestions of him toppling Snake are a bit
exaggerated.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: MasterCIoud
| Posted: 8/16/2002 11:41:52 PM | Message
Detail
|
So you don't think Crono will beat Snake? I
highly doubt that. In fact, I think Aeris has a pretty good shot at
downing Snake.
---
GameFAQs Character Battles-42/48 - 55
pts. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/16/2002 11:45:19 PM | Message
Detail
|
Well, I've underestimated Crono to this point,
so I wouldn't be surprised if I underestimate him again. But I gotta
believe that Snake can make the final four.
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/17/2002 12:07:12 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
6 - Mega Man
(45:1) - 60914 / 91.84% (66328) - 14192 /
84.7%
3 - Serious Sam (300:1) - 5414 / 8.16%
(66328)
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Biggest
Blowouts (difference in brackets)
1) Mega Man
92.30% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 7.70% - (84.60%)
2)
(ii) Mega Man 91.84% vs. Serious Sam 8.16% -
(83.68%)
3) Sephiroth 87.71% vs. Gabe Logan
12.29% - (75.42%)
4) Link 84.31% vs. Little
Mac 15.69% - (68.62%)
5) Sonic the Hedgehog
82.44% vs. Pitfall Harry 17.56% -
(64.88%)
6) Ryu 80.79% vs. CATS 19.21% -
(61.58%)
7) Knuckles the Echidna 80.56% vs. Akira
Yuki 19.44% - (61.12%)
8) (ii) Pikachu
20.49% vs. Cloud Strife 79.51% - (59.02%)
9)
Bomberman 78.11% vs. Kane 21.89% -
(56.22%)
10) (ii) Aeris 76.93% vs. Tina Armstrong
23.07% - (53.86%)
Top 10 Biggest Vote
Gaps (difference in brackets)
1) Mega Man 63039
vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) (ii) Mega Man
60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500)
3)
Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 -
(52765)
4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 -
(48433)
5) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife
59926 - (44481)
6) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023
vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
7) Knuckles the
Echidna 49964 vs. Akira Yuki 12057 -
(37907)
8) (ii) Strider Hiryu 17270 vs. Link
53992 - (36722)
9) Cloud Strife 54643 vs.
Fox McCloud 18599 - (36044)
10) Ryu 46869
vs. CATS 11145 - (35724)
Top 10 Biggest
Vote Getters
1) Mega Man - 63039
2) Sephiroth -
61367
3) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
4) (ii) Cloud
Strife - 59926
5) Link - 59509
6) Cloud Strife -
54643
7) (ii) Link - 53992
8) Sonic the Hedgehog
- 53023
9) (ii) Aeris - 50055
10) Knuckles the
Echidna - 49964
Top 10 Lowest Vote
Getters
1) Ms. Pac-Man - 5257
2) (ii) Serious
Sam - 5414
3) Gabe Logan - 8602
4) Little Mac -
11076
5) CATS - 11145
6) Pitfall Harry -
11292
7) Kane - 11476
8) Akira Yuki -
12057
9) Dirk the Daring - 12109
10) Servbot -
13777
Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict
(based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the
winner)
1) Link 96.4% vs. Little Mac 3.6%
2)
Mario 95.9% vs. Servbot 4.1%
3) Sonic the Hedgehog
95.6% vs. Pitfall Harry 4.4%
4) Donkey Kong 94.2% vs.
Bub 5.8%
5) Mega Man 94.1% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5.9%
6)
Max Payne 91.9% vs. Dirk the Daring 8.1%
7) Sephiroth
90.2% vs. Gabe Logan 9.8%
8) Lara Croft 88.4% vs. Chop
Chop Master Onion 11.6%
9) Ryu 87.0% vs. CATS 13.0%
10)
(ii) Mega Man 84.7% vs. Serious Sam
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/17/2002 12:14:55 AM | Message
Detail
|
Wow. A lot of lists needed updating after
yesterday. More great work, solar.
I think the most
interesting thing about yesterday's match was how many people
predicted correctly that Megaman would win. The highest of any 2nd
round matches. Lots more votes too... I don't think I'll all that
surprised anymore if Sephiroth loses next round. This is getting
interesting...
---
Muse of the Day: How come "thaw" and
"unthaw" mean the same thing? |
| From: Siege1331
| Posted: 8/17/2002 12:19:59 AM | Message
Detail
|
Nice job solar. These are really
nice.
---
"Note to self, no matter how bad life gets, remember
that there is always beer." -Norm McDonald
SHINE
GET! |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/17/2002 12:33:17 AM | Message
Detail
|
I don't think any of those updates come as a
surprise to anyone. :) Except maybe that a second round match made
it onto the easiest to predict list. We've also got our first case
of a second round character making it onto the lowest vote getters
list. Not an enviable position for Sam to be in. He just barely put
up a better fight than Ms. Pac-Man. Ouch.
Well, Tripod's
being disagreeable again, and I can't even log in to update the
website. So that will be postponed until tomorrow for the second day
in a row, unless it suddenly starts cooperating in the next few
minutes.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/17/2002 12:48:56 AM | Message
Detail
|
A second round match making the easiest to
predict list is a little surprising, yeah. O_o
Frankly,
though, I'm more surprised with Serious Sam's horrible vote total. I
mean, he DID make it to the second round. Seeing him rank second on
the lowest-tally list while there is...kind of funny, actually.
<g>
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/17/2002 2:13:46 AM | Message
Detail
|
Heheh, poor Sam. I almost feel sorry for him. He
got a generous seed and an easy first round opponent in Mr. Driller,
which basically gave him a free pass to the second round where he
didn't deserve to be. Probably the worst case of seeding in the
tournament, next to Sephiroth as a 7th seed of course.
:)
Tripod let me in for a bit, so the stats and combined top
10 lists are updated. The rest will be updated
tomorrow.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: KSOT
| Posted: 8/17/2002 10:33:11 AM | Message
Detail
|
| Mega Man is starting to arouse my
curiosity... |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/17/2002 12:11:08 PM | Message
Detail
|
What the heck? Do you have an alternate account
now, KSOT? Maybe it's an impostor! :)
Anyway, the website is
fully updated now. I'm still taking suggestions for new poll ideas,
so don't be afraid to let fly with those.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/17/2002 7:11:24 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Mega Man vs. Serious Sam
analysis.
Warning: extreme statements of the obvious appear
below.
Uh, Mega Man killed Sam. It was messy, it was ugly.
Please, cover the children's eyes.
Where do I begin? Mega Man
crushed Sam into pulp, squished him like a bug, ground him into
dust, blasted him to smithereens, etc! This match ranks as the
second biggest blowout of the tournament (next to Mega Man over Ms.
Pac-Man) and by far the biggest blowout of the second round. Mega
Man received 91.84% of the vote, just below the 92.30% he took
against Ms. Pac-Man. The next closest blowout was Sephiroth over
Gabe with an 88/12 split, and the closest second round match is
Cloud over Pikachu at 80/20. Quite a thrashing. Sam did not live up
to his 3rd seed placement, and proved that he probably shouldn't
have made it to the second round (blame Mr. Driller for not taking
him out in the first). Sam's meagre 8% of the vote share was over
50% lower than the 59% he earned last round. It was a slaughter. Do
I need to go on?
Mega Man further proved his popularity (the
extent of which continues to surprise some), becoming only the third
character to break the 60000 vote mark, the previous two being
Sephiroth and... Mega Man. :) That's right, the Blue Bomber is
currently the only two time member of the 60000 vote club. Serious
Sam on the other hand brought in a pathetic 5414 votes, which just
barely beat out Ms. Pac-Man's 5257 showing (not an accomplishment to
be proud of). The vote gap for this match was exactly 55500 votes,
which is actually more votes than the entire total of 9 of the
previous matches. Yes, it's just that silly.
This one wasn't
even close for a moment. In fact, Mega Man got more votes in the
first hour than Sam got for the entire day. Absolutely brutal.
Someone should have called off the fight.
I'm going to leave
some of the Mega Man discussion for tomorrow when I can do some more
comparisons against Sephiroth. But I think it's worth noting that
this wasn't even one of the most popular matches (12th on the list
with 66000 total votes) and yet Mega Man still managed to break the
60000 vote barrier. And his first match was similar (only slightly
more popular at 68000 total votes, 8th on the list). He's just plain
dominating. Of course, he has had arguably the easiest first and
second round opponents, but I think a lot of us didn't expect him to
do quite so well regardless. We may have underestimated his
popularity to some degree.
Considering the size of the
blowout, it's perhaps surprising that only 84.7% of the contest
entrants predicted this one correctly. 94.1% had Mega Man winning
the first round, but over 10% of those thought he would lose to Sam
or Mr. Driller? I suppose that's not too bad, but when looking at
the outcome it's hard to believe that anyone could have missed it.
:)
I don't think I need to tell anyone who Mega Man's third
round opponent will be. This clash is already being hyped up
considerably. And with good reason. His next match against Sephiroth
is set to be the highlight of the third round. Most would have put
their money on Sephiroth at the beginning of the tournament, but
given Mega Man's impressive showings thus far that confidence is
beginning to waver. Does Mega Man have what it takes to upset the
mighty Sephiroth? Could be. But more on that tomorrow.
P.S.
Sam did not make the most impressive losers list. Just so you
know.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/17/2002 10:03:06 PM | Message
Detail
|
Nice in-depth analysis (!!!) Solar! ;)
But
did you really need to be so...cruel in your statements (even though
you have only described the massacre)? I mean, it really was ugly
but I pity that poor Sam, don't you? ;)
---
"Everything gold
does not glitter
Not all those who wander are lost" |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/17/2002 10:27:05 PM | Message
Detail
|
Just called it like I saw it. :) I do feel a bit
sorry for Sam, but the boy didn't even put up a fight. It's like he
was out drinking the night before or something. There's no excuse
for such poor discipline. ;)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
Stats Discussion:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3916637 |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/17/2002 11:50:00 PM | Message
Detail
|
This might be interisting Solar, I added the
First and Second Round total of votes of all the remaining
competitors and here it is :
Total Number of Votes received
by Third Round Competitors :
Mega Man - 123953
Sephiroth -
115323
Cloud - 114569
Link - 113501
Crono - 93222
Aeris
- 88245
Snake - 88232
Sonic - 86625
Mario -
83884
Scorpion - 81498
Lara - 81045
Samus - 80150
Jill -
75367
Pac-Man - 73757
Alucard - 69380
Donkey Kong -
64400
Just look how REALLY close Snake and Aeris are...this
might be a close fight...
---
"Everything gold does not
glitter
Not all those who wander are lost" |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/17/2002 11:56:35 PM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
7 - Sephiroth
(9:1) - 53956 / 81.52% (66191) - 12911 /
77.0%
2 - Crash Bandicoot (250:1) - 12235 / 18.48%
(66191)
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Biggest
Blowouts (difference in brackets)
1) Mega Man
92.30% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 7.70% - (84.60%)
2)
(ii) Mega Man 91.84% vs. Serious Sam 8.16% -
(83.68%)
3) Sephiroth 87.71% vs. Gabe Logan
12.29% - (75.42%)
4) Link 84.31% vs. Little
Mac 15.69% - (68.62%)
5) Sonic the Hedgehog
82.44% vs. Pitfall Harry 17.56% -
(64.88%)
6) (ii) Sephiroth 81.52% vs. Crash
Bandicoot 18.48% - (63.04%)
7) Ryu 80.79%
vs. CATS 19.21% - (61.58%)
8) Knuckles the Echidna
80.56% vs. Akira Yuki 19.44% - (61.12%)
9)
(ii) Pikachu 20.49% vs. Cloud Strife 79.51% -
(59.02%)
10) Bomberman 78.11% vs. Kane
21.89% - (56.22%)
Top 10 Biggest Vote
Gaps (difference in brackets)
1) Mega Man 63039
vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) (ii) Mega Man
60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500)
3)
Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 -
(52765)
4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 -
(48433)
5) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife
59926 - (44481)
6) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023
vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
7) (ii) Sephiroth
53956 vs. Crash Bandicoot 12235 - (41721)
8)
Knuckles the Echidna 49964 vs. Akira Yuki 12057 -
(37907)
9) (ii) Strider Hiryu 17270 vs. Link
53992 - (36722)
10) Cloud Strife 54643 vs.
Fox McCloud 18599 - (36044)
Top 10
Biggest Vote Getters
1) Mega Man - 63039
2)
Sephiroth - 61367
3) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
4)
(ii) Cloud Strife - 59926
5) Link - 59509
6)
Cloud Strife - 54643
7) (ii) Link - 53992
8)
(ii) Sephiroth - 53956
9) Sonic the Hedgehog -
53023
10) (ii) Aeris - 50055
Top 10
Lowest Vote Getters
1) Ms. Pac-Man - 5257
2)
(ii) Serious Sam - 5414
3) Gabe Logan - 8602
4)
Little Mac - 11076
5) CATS - 11145
6) Pitfall
Harry - 11292
7) Kane - 11476
8) Akira Yuki -
12057
9) Dirk the Daring - 12109
10) (ii) Crash
Bandicoot - 12235
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/18/2002 1:13:12 AM | Message
Detail
|
Heh, you beat me to calculating those numbers,
King Morgoth. But that's cool, because it saves me some effort. :) I
was thinking of maybe putting combined stats like that on the
website but I'm not sure where they'd go exactly or how many
categories I want, so I'm leaving them off for now. But they are fun
to look at. I like how Mega Man has almost twice as many votes as
DK. Impressive. Oh, are you still interested in reformatting the
second round full lists? They're complete now so you can have at
them if you want.
Website report: Everything's been updated.
Including the Contest Averages and all that other fun stuff. Enjoy.
(Maybe I should post the second round averages here as well? Might
be a good idea.)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/18/2002 1:35:23 AM | Message
Detail
|
Okay, here you go. These are the second round
averages only. The first round averages can of course be found on
the website:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/avg.html
-CONTEST
AVERAGES-
Average Number of Votes Received By The Winning
Character
North Division - 43009 / 65.5%
East
Division - 42909 / 65.9%
South Division - 40900 / 65.9%
West
Division - 46941 / 72.9%
Second Round Avg - 43440 /
67.6%
Average Number of Votes Received By The
Losing Character
North Division - 22613 / 34.5%
East
Division - 22162 / 34.1%
South Division - 21185 / 34.1%
West
Division - 17449 / 27.1%
Second Round Avg - 20852 /
32.4%
Average Number of Total Votes Per
Match
North Division - 65622
East Division - 65071
South Division - 62084
West Division - 64390
Second
Round Avg - 64292
Average Win
Margin
North Division - 20396 / 31.1%
East Division -
20748 / 31.9%
South Division - 19715 / 31.8%
West Division -
29492 / 45.8%
Second Round Avg - 22588 /
35.2%
Average Number of Contest Entrants
Predicting Each Match Correctly (out of 16764 total
entrants)
North Division - 10460 / 62.4%
East Division -
10711 / 63.9%
South Division - 8860 / 52.9%
West Division -
11754 / 70.1%
Second Round Avg - 10446 /
62.3%
Average Number of Points Earned by Contest
Entrants (out of 8 possible points per division, 32 per round)
North Division - 4.99
East Division - 5.11
South
Division - 4.23
West Division - 5.61
Second Round -
19.94
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/18/2002 2:30:20 AM | Message
Detail
|
I don't want ot be picky but there's a little
error in your "Second Round Top 5 Lists"....
I think that there's
a little problem with the stats of the 9th position in your "Top 5
Smallest Vote Gaps" table
;)
http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/stats2.txt
Took me
40 minutes, thought it would take waaaaay longer...oh well, I ain't
gonna complain about that ;)
---
"Everything gold does not
glitter
Not all those who wander are lost" |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/18/2002 2:44:26 AM | Message
Detail
|
LOL. Crap, that's the second time that's
happened. At least nobody caught it the first time. :) Alright, it's
fixed now.
Excellent job on the formatting again, as usual.
Thanks a lot, it looks great.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/18/2002 2:18:40 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Sephiroth vs. Crash
analysis.
Well, it was another blowout, as expected. Not
nearly as absolute as Mega Man's destruction of Serious Sam, but it
does rank as the 2nd biggest blowout of the second round (6th
overall).
Crash put up enough of a fight to prevent
Sephiroth's second round totals from reaching quite as high as his
first round totals (and Mega Man's first and second round totals).
The two of them occupy the top 3 positions on the Top 10 Biggest
Blowouts, Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps, and Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters,
but Sephiroth's second round totals rank 6th, 7th, and 8th on those
lists. Which would seem to be a pretty good indication of Crash's
difficulty as an opponent.
Sephiroth gained a little less
than 82% of the vote, down from his 88% against Gabe Logan. But his
vote total plummeted by nearly 7000, down to 54000 from the previous
61000+. That leaves Mega Man as the only two time member of the
60000 vote club. Crash saw his percentage go from a weak 63% against
Ulala down to a worthless 18% against Sephiroth. And his vote total
dropped by 2/3 from 36000 down to 12000. Which just managed to get
him a spot on the Top 10 Lowest Vote Getters list (only the 2nd
second round character to do so). Not an inspiring performance, but
the competition was admittedly quite steep.
This poll was
moderately popular at 66000 total votes cast, but that's
considerably lower than the almost 70000 votes in Sephiroth's first
match. Which is a bit of a surprise. You'd think Crash would be a
more exciting opponent than Gabe, even if Crash's first match only
got the attention of 57000 voters. Perhaps we should blame the
anti-climactic end to the second round for the lack of
interest?
77% of the contest entrants picked Sephiroth to win
this match, which is 13% fewer than chose him to win the first
round. That probably says more for Crash's popularity than the
meagre vote count he managed (unless most of those predictions were
for the busty Ulala).
Well, next up for Sephiroth is an epic
battle against Mega Man. Along with Link and Cloud these 2 pretty
much dominate the most impressive lists. So this will definitely be
a heavyweight bout. The odds are in Sephiroth's favor and he
probably has the edge, but Mega Man has surprised us with his
popularity thus far and could offer up another surprise in the third
round. By combining vote totals we can see that Mega Man and
Sephiroth are the two most popular characters so far (votewise).
Mega Man has received a staggering 123953 votes, and Sephiroth is
just behind with a whopping 115323 (as a bit of comparison, Alucard
and Donkey Kong have combined totals of 69380 and 64400 votes
respectively). It's almost a shame that one of these two characters
will have to fall in the third round, but at least it gives the
potential for one of the first truly epic battles.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: ReaPeR
xZ | Posted: 8/18/2002 5:01:23 PM | Message
Detail
|
solarshadow - I think it would be cool to see
what division each character was placed in on The Odds and The
Seeding pages on your website. Just a suggestion.
---
If I
drench myself in others blood, am I sick?
If I bathe myself in
others blood, am I sick? |
| From: javajim
| Posted: 8/18/2002 8:18:12 PM | Message
Detail
|
| Nice work Solarshadow, very impressive what
you've put together so far. My only suggestion would be to add
pictures by the stats, especially for the full results. Basically,
just copy the pics that CJayc used in the polls and insert them. I
think it would make it just a little more interesting than just
staring at a page full of numbers. Again, great work, can't wait to
see your analysis up on your website also. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/18/2002 9:51:37 PM | Message
Detail
|
ReaPeR xZ: Good suggestion. The seeding is
divided by division, but I'll look into doing something with the
odds as well (when I get a chance).
javajim: Pictures could
be fun. I'd have to find a way to work them into my formatting
though. Also, I'm not sure if they'd be so large in file size that
I'd have to worry about my bandwidth limit. But I'll play around a
bit and see if I can get anything to work. I was thinking of making
a bracket only out of the contest pics, but I'm not sure if it's
worth the effort.
Thanks for the suggestions. I'll see what I
can do.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Drakoi
| Posted: 8/18/2002 10:05:40 PM | Message
Detail
|
wow, the south div was so hard to pick! Other
than Link and Lara. But if I had just known who snake was I'd be 8
fewer in the red. Cool stuff Solar.
---
Current Summer Contest
Score, 57g-15r |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/18/2002 11:04:12 PM | Message
Detail
|
-SECOND ROUND WRAP UP-
Well, I'd say this
round was a little more eventful than the first, but we're only
really just getting warmed up.
The second round started with
a ho hum victory by Mario over Morrigan. It looked like an
inauspicious start, but things were about to get much better. Donkey
Kong and Aya Brea then treated us to the closest match of the
contest. The lead actually changed hands numerous times over the
course of the morning before DK built up a comfortable margin. Aya
managed a late charge to make things interesting, but it just wasn't
enough and DK took the match by a hair.
The very next match
featured Alucard and Duke and turned out to be one of the most
notable of the round. Alucard took the match and surprised a lot of
people, with only 28.8% of the contest entrants predicting him to
move on to the third round. That still stands as the hardest match
to predict. Another surprise came when Scorpion upset the favored
Max Payne. It is almost certain that more people picked Max in their
brackets, but Scorpion came through convincingly and took the win,
much to the delight of only 33.6% of the entrants.
This round
also featured a couple of hyped battles that didn't live up to their
billing. Remember when I said Crono vs. Dante could be a close and
exciting match due to the similarity of their odds and previous vote
totals? Forget I ever said anything. :) Crono secured two-thirds of
the vote and took the win easily. Another nothing match turned out
to be the Pikachu vs. Cloud affair. Some people were convinced
Pikachu could pose a threat to Cloud, but Cloud proved them wrong by
smoking the little yellow rat 80% to 20%.
In the "closer than
they should've been" category we have Knuckles vs. Snake. Snake was
expected to take this one in a walk but ended up with only 60% of
the vote. Is this a hint that Snake doesn't have what it takes to
make it to the final rounds? Only time will tell. Mario vs. Morrigan
also falls into this category, with Mario barely managing two-thirds
of the vote against a relatively weak opponent. The mustachioed
plumber has not been living up to his #1 odds ranking.
On the
blowout side we had Sephiroth's dismantling of the 2nd-seeded Crash,
and Mega Man's utter annihilation of Serious Sam. Sephiroth's 82% of
the vote against Crash was the only blowout in the 80% range, but it
pales considerably to the 92% achieved by Mega Man. It was a
slaughter. This was also the easiest match to predict at 84.7%, with
Mario and Link's wins being the only others to break 80%.
As
far as averages go, there wasn't a lot of change in the vote
percentages between the first and second rounds. The winning
characters still got close to 70% and the losing characters around
30%. The polls did get more popular though, with the averages number
of total votes up by 4000 per match. Inevitably, the outcomes got
harder to predict. Prediction percentage dropped by 12% down to an
average of 62.3%. The South Division became the toughest to predict
by far, with an average of 52.9% of the entrants picking those
winners correctly (10% lower than any of the other divisions). The
average number of points earned by contest entrants for this round
was down to 19.94. So, in order to be in the majority now you need
to have at least 43.68 points at the end of the round.
Well,
it was certainly an eventful second round and the third round should
be even more interesting. Stay tuned for a third round preview
shortly.
Bonus stat: The total number of votes cast this
round was 1,028,667, for a grand total of 2,904,502 (nearly 3
million!) votes so far this contest. Wow.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/18/2002 11:37:16 PM | Message
Detail
|
Here's a little Third Round preview for you.
I've included the characters with their seeding, the odds, and the
percentage of contest entrants that chose them to win their previous
match. It's not much, but it might give us some indication of which
characters are likely to win and how many people might get it
right.
1 - Mario (6:1) - 81.7%
4 - Donkey Kong
(140:1) - 69.6%
6 - Alucard (70:1) - 28.8%
2 - Cloud
Strife (14:1) - 69.5%
1 - Lara Croft (50:1) -
74.13%
5 - Crono (33:1) - 51.8%
11 - Aeris (90:1) -
53.5%
2 - Solid Snake (8:1) - 76.2%
1 - Pac-Man
(60:1) - 64.8%
5 - Scorpion (150:1) - 33.6%
3 -
Jill Valentine (180:1) - 32.5%
2 - Link (9:1) -
80.5%
1 - Sonic the Hedgehog (45:1) - 60.8%
5 - Samus Aran
(36:1) - 58.0%
6 - Mega Man (45:1) - 84.7%
7 -
Sephiroth (9:1) - 77.0%
-THIRD ROUND PREVIEW
ANALYSIS-
The most exciting match of this round looks to be
Mega Man vs. Sephiroth, and I don't think people will argue with me
this time. ;) Their votes totals have been the highest of the
contest, proving that each has a tremendous amount of support. It
truly is a clash of the titans and only one will survive. Sephiroth
clearly has the better odds, so I think most people will expect him
to win. But Mega Man has pulled off some surprisingly impressive
victories and may have a couple tricks left up his sleeve. This epic
battle should serve as the perfect climax to the round.
Other
close matches to keep your eye on could include Pac-Man vs.
Scorpion, Aeris vs. Snake, and Sonic vs. Samus. Samus actually has
better odds than Sonic, but it's hard to argue that Sonic isn't more
well known. Tough one to call. Snake really ought to win his match,
but his weak victory against Knuckles and the sizeable following for
Aeris could cause him some problems. It would definitely be a
surprise upset, but it's dangerous to underestimate the power of
FF7. The Pac-Man and Scorpion match is a bit of a toss up. The odds
give this one easily to Pac-Man, but Scorpion has been impressive in
his previous victories and surprised a lot of people (two-thirds of
the entrants didn't think he'd make it even this far). This may be
one to watch.
And the round wouldn't be complete without a
couple of blowouts. Look for Link to make short work of Jill, and
Cloud to have his way with Alucard. They won't set any records, but
the outcomes should never be in doubt. Oh, and I expect that Mario
will destory DK with about 80% of the vote. ;)
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/19/2002 12:51:36 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
1 - Mario
(6:1) - 52333 / 81.98% (63840) - 12158 /
72.5%
4 - Donkey Kong (140:1) - 11507 / 18.02%
(63840)
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Biggest
Blowouts (difference in brackets)
1) Mega Man
92.30% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 7.70% - (84.60%)
2)
(ii) Mega Man 91.84% vs. Serious Sam 8.16% -
(83.68%)
3) Sephiroth 87.71% vs. Gabe Logan
12.29% - (75.42%)
4) Link 84.31% vs. Little
Mac 15.69% - (68.62%)
5) Sonic the Hedgehog
82.44% vs. Pitfall Harry 17.56% -
(64.88%)
6) (iii) Mario 81.98% vs. Donkey Kong
18.02% - (63.96%)
7) (ii) Sephiroth 81.52%
vs. Crash Bandicoot 18.48% - (63.04%)
8) Ryu
80.79% vs. CATS 19.21% - (61.58%)
9)
Knuckles the Echidna 80.56% vs. Akira Yuki 19.44% -
(61.12%)
10) (ii) Pikachu 20.49% vs. Cloud Strife
79.51% - (59.02%)
Top 10 Biggest Vote
Gaps (difference in brackets)
1) Mega Man 63039
vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2) (ii) Mega Man
60914 vs. Serious Sam 5414 - (55500)
3)
Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 -
(52765)
4) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 -
(48433)
5) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife
59926 - (44481)
6) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023
vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
7) (ii) Sephiroth
53956 vs. Crash Bandicoot 12235 - (41721)
8)
(iii) Mario 52333 vs. Donkey Kong 11507 -
(40826)
9) Knuckles the Echidna 49964 vs. Akira
Yuki 12057 - (37907)
10) (ii) Strider Hiryu
17270 vs. Link 53992 -
(36722)
Top 10 Biggest Vote
Getters
1) Mega Man - 63039
2) Sephiroth -
61367
3) (ii) Mega Man - 60914
4) (ii) Cloud
Strife - 59926
5) Link - 59509
6) Cloud Strife -
54643
7) (ii) Link - 53992
8) (ii) Sephiroth -
53956
9) Sonic the Hedgehog - 53023
10) (iii)
Mario 52333
Top 10 Lowest Vote
Getters
1) Ms. Pac-Man - 5257
2) (ii) Serious
Sam - 5414
3) Gabe Logan - 8602
4) Little Mac -
11076
5) CATS - 11145
6) Pitfall Harry -
11292
7) Kane - 11476
8) (iii) Donkey Kong
11507
9) Akira Yuki - 12057
10) Dirk the Daring
- 12109
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/19/2002 1:03:47 AM | Message
Detail
|
Sorry about being a bit late with those. It
wouldn't post for some reason. Anyway, the website's mostly updated
too. I still need to add a section or two and update some of the
menus. That'll happen tomorrow. And I might change how and when
certain parts are updated, because it's taking more time to do than
I'd like. We'll see.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/19/2002 1:06:25 AM | Message
Detail
|
Whew! Well, that was a fun read. =) Nice to see
Mario making his way onto some of those top ten lists, for once. Of
course, it seems pretty obvious why; I'm surprised more people
didn't see it coming.
Also--I really don't think Link vs.
Jill will be a blowout. Jill's considerable following has been
overshadowed a bit by her opponents, both lovable, highly
recognizable mascots in the gaming world. I'm sure Link will win,
but I imagine Jill will put up more of a fight than, say,
Strider.
(Oh, and about your Mario/DK "prediction"....
=P)
Entertaining stuff, Solar. Sure glad you're keeping this
up--what with the lack of fanfics, it's sort of saving the contest
for me.
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/19/2002 2:04:32 AM | Message
Detail
|
I'm very pleased to hear you're enjoying it,
Jjukil. Good to know at least someone is reading all that. :) I wish
I could find the previous matches' analyses, but nobody's contacted
me about it. So, a reminder: if you visited the old stats topic
frequently you may still have some of the pages in your cache. Try
setting your browser to "Work Offline" and following this link:
http://s1.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3747804&page=1
If
that doesn't work try changing the "s1" to "s2" or changing
"&page=1" to "&page=2" (or 3, 4, etc). If you find
any of the pages copy and paste them and email them to:
solarshadow@hotmail.com
I'd sure like to see them, and so would
some others.
Back to your other comments, I was probably
remiss in suggesting those matches would be "blowouts". I wanted to
use that word but I really shouldn't have. I meant them as very
minor blowouts, more like "sure things". :) I agree that Jill won't
get blownout, but I don't have any doubt that Link will take it.
That's more or less what I was trying to express.
It was nice
to see Mario finally putting up some impressive numbers, but that
came as a bit of a surprise to me. I thought DK would do a little
better than that. Of course, I had to think long and hard about that
Mario/DK prediction. I was leaning more towards the 70% range, but
then I had a sudden epiphany and knew that 80% was far more
accurate. ;)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: ardonite
| Posted: 8/19/2002 5:17:30 AM | Message
Detail
|
gj, thought I'd point out the distribution of
scores of entries has two relative maxima now. guess it wasn't a
random distribution of entries. any idea why 47 is so special that
more people chose it?/ what would be the current score if you had
followed the seeding precisely -- i'm lazy?
also the mario vs
dk blowout could be accounted to the fact that there are people who
are merely voting against nintendo characters, and they had no
choice in this match :) |
| From: dimeat
| Posted: 8/19/2002 11:26:04 AM | Message
Detail
|
Heh, good read, I visit your site everyday to
look at howmany people moved up. I keep on moving up except..if
Samus doesn't beat Sonic, I think I'm done for :(
Made Tidus beat
Sonic...don't know why... |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/19/2002 2:51:06 PM | Message
Detail
|
The scoring if you'd followed the seeding
precisely would look a little something like this:
1 Mario -
1pt - 2pts - 4pts
2 Cloud - 1pt - 2pts - 4pts
3 Duke - 1pt -
0pts
4 DK - 1pt - 2pts
5 Terry - 0pts
6 Alucard - 1pt
7
Pikachu - 1pt
8 Spyro - 0pts
1 Lara - 1pt - 2pts
2
Snake - 1pt - 2pts
3 Gordon - 0pts - 0pts
4 Dante - 1pt -
0pts
5 Crono - 1pt
6 Kasumi - 0pts
7 Knuckles - 1pt
8
Ryo Hazuki - 1pt
1 Pac-Man - 1pt - 2pts
2 Link - 1pt -
2pts
3 Jill - 1pt - 2pts
4 Max - 1pt - 0pts
5 Scorpion -
1pt
6 Bomberman - 1pt
7 Strider - 1pt
8 Abe - 0pts
1
Sonic - 1pt - 2pts
2 Crash - 1pt - 0pts
3 Sam - 1pt -
0pts
4 Ryu - 1pt - 0pts
5 Samus Aran - 1pt
6 Mega Man -
1pt
7 Sephiroth - 1pt
8 Tidus - 1pt
First Round -
27pts
Second Round - 20pts
So, 47 points at the end of the
second round. And since you only needed 44 points to be in the
majority, that's not too bad for not having to think about it. :)
With Mario's win yesterday you'd be up to 51. And it's interesting
to note that more people have a score of 51 than any other number.
Coincidence? You're not going to win any prizes with a score like
that but you'd still be doing better than at least half the
entrants.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/19/2002 3:27:05 PM | Message
Detail
|
The website's been updated with the rest of last
night's stats. And here's what the new updating schedule looks
like:
Nightly: Stats, Combined Top 10 Lists
Following Day:
Full Lists, Odds, Seeding, Contest Upsets
End of Round: current
round's Top Lists, Contest Averages
That should make things a
little bit easier on me. Of course, things may change a bit in the
coming rounds when the matches become fewer and certain sections
become easier to update. But there's really no point in updating
something like the Top 3 Lists for this round when there's only been
1 match so far.
I've also calculated the odds ratios for the
third rounds matches now. They're on the website in the appropriate
places of course, but they're also right here:
Mario (6:1)
vs. Donkey Kong (140:1) - 23.3
Jill Valentine (180:1) vs.
Link (9:1) - 20.0
Aeris (90:1) vs. Solid Snake (8:1) -
11.3
Alucard (70:1) vs. Cloud Strife (14:1) - 5.0
Mega Man (45:1) vs. Sephiroth (9:1) - 5.0
Pac-Man
(60:1) vs. Scorpion (150:1) - 2.5
Lara Croft (50:1) vs.
Crono (33:1) - 1.5
Sonic the Hedgehog (45:1) vs. Samus
Aran (36:1) - 1.3
Looks like the Mario/DK battle
really was a bit of a mis-match. Link over Jill appears to be a safe
bet as well. And Aeris vs. Snake doesn't look as close as some
people have suggested it could be. But I do think the odds mean less
and less the deeper into the tournament we get, so I wouldn't put
too much stock in them. Sonic/Samus and Pac-Man/Scorpion look to be
close ones (unsurprisingly). As well as Lara vs. Crono, which might
come as a bit of a surprise. Think this one will be that close?
Could be interesting.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/19/2002 10:37:44 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some brief Mario vs. DK analysis.
Not a
lot to say here. We all assumed the battle of the Nintendo icons
would be taken easily by Mario, so it was no real surprise. The
extent of the margin of victory may have been a little more
unexpected, but it's hardly worth getting excited about.
It
was nice to finally see Mario putting up some decent numbers though.
Despite previous battles against Servbot and Morrigan, he wasn't
able to achieve anything near the impressive levels of the other
elite. But this trouncing of DK ranks as the 6th biggest blowout
with the 8th largest vote gap. It also marks Mario's first
appearance on the Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters list and finally gives
him that coveted membership in the 50000 votes club. Is Mario
picking up some steam? He'll certainly need to if he hopes to take
down Cloud next round.
As for Donkey Kong, this match marks
the first time he hasn't made the Top 10 Least Impressive Winners
list. Instead, the big ape finds himself 8th on the Top 10 Lowest
Vote Getters list. Not an improvement. Well, for what it's worth, he
had a good (if uninspiring) run, but this was as far as he could
expect to go.
Mario saw his highest percentage of votes (by
over 10%) and highest vote count (by over 5000) in this match, even
though it received around 3000 fewer total votes than his bout
against Morrigan. DK's vote total spiralled down by 20000 votes to
the miserable 11000 range.
The prediction percentage for
Mario remained high at 72.5%, down only about 10% from his previous
match. That could possibly remain the highest for the entire third
round. Link and maybe Snake would have a chance at being predicted
correctly by more people if their matches go as planned though, so
keep an eye on them. The other 2 front runners based on the second
round numbers are Mega Man and Sephiroth, but seeing as they're
pitted against each other, expect those prediction percentages to
take a drastic hit this round.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/19/2002 11:51:57 PM | Message
Detail
|
I just checked my cache, I think I only have one
page (Page 5, 50 per page), I'll send it to you soon, I'll look for
the rest first though.
Nice work so far, looks like I have my
first loss for this division coming up today too (I knew at the time
picking Lara over Crono was a stupid thing to do, but couldn't be
bothered changing it :( )
---
Everyone that says "There's no
such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this
board. |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/19/2002 11:58:09 PM | Message
Detail
|
I have Page 1 too. I don't have pages 2-4
though. Checked both servers, but no.
---
Everyone that says
"There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never
visited this board. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/20/2002 12:15:07 AM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
6 - Alucard (70:1) -
22578 / 30.36% (74365)
2 - Cloud Strife
(14:1) - 51787 / 69.64% (74365) - 8973 /
53.5%
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Most Popular
Polls (by vote totals)
1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371
2) (iii) Alucard vs. Cloud Strife -
74365
3) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
4)
Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676
5) (ii) Strider
Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
6) Link vs. Little Mac -
70585
7) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
8)
Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan - 69969
9) Mega Man vs. Ms.
Pac-Man - 68296
10) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna vs. Solid
Snake - 68083
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/20/2002 12:18:44 AM | Message
Detail
|
Wow, Cloud is in the three highest vote tallys,
guess that says something about the popularity of FF7. Pity I chose
Snake to beat him in the semis.
Did you get my email
BTW?
---
Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a stupid
question", has obviously never visited this board. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/20/2002 12:19:03 AM | Message
Detail
|
Thanks Ringworm. Page 1 will be nice, because I
wanted to see my first round wrap-up again.
I've also got my
first third round loss today (my North Division is still absolutely
perfect!). What was I thinking, picking Dante over Ryo?
;)
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/20/2002 12:35:24 AM | Message
Detail
|
Yep, just checked my email (I was busy with
stats for a bit). And there nestled amid the mortgage offers and,
uh, "enhancement" promises was your message with the glorious pages
attached. :) Very cool. Thanks a lot.
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| Jump to
Page:
| 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
