| FULL STATS - Summer 2002 Contest
(Updated Nightly) |
| Page 1 of
9 | | |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 12:30:40 AM | Message
Detail
|
Welcome to the new and improved stats post.
Well, new anyway. It seems the other one was mysteriously moderated
for being "off-topic" so we'll have to start over. Below, I've
included all the second round stats up to this point (match #45) as
well as the current Top 10 lists. If you're looking for the complete
first round stats, the contest averages, and all the other fun
stuff, you can find them at the contest stats site:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com
But enough preamble, on to
the stats. Remember, if you like what you see post some feedback or
simply bump the topic so that others can see it.
Enjoy.
KEY: seed# - Character (odds) - votes / percent
(total votes) - number / percentage of contest entrants predicting
this character to win the match [not available for losing
characters]
-NORTH DIVISION-
1 - Mario
(6:1) - 44448 / 66.81% (66532) - 13698 /
81.7%
9 - Morrigan Aensland (225:1) - 22084 / 33.19%
(66532)
12 - Aya Brea (250:1) - 30478 / 48.94%
(62276)
4 - Donkey Kong (140:1) - 31798 /
51.06% (62276) - 11665 / 69.6%
6 -
Alucard (70:1) - 35864 / 61.51% (58309)
- 4824 / 28.8%
3 - Duke Nukem (110:1) - 22445 / 38.49%
(58309)
7 - Pikachu (120:1) - 15445 / 20.49%
(75371)
2 - Cloud Strife (14:1) - 59926 /
79.51% (75371) - 11653 / 69.5%
-EAST
DIVISION-
1 - Lara Croft (50:1) - 36308 /
59.38% (61142) - 12427 / 74.13%
8 - Ryo Hazuki
(250:1) - 24834 / 40.62% (61142)
5 - Crono
(33:1) - 43939 / 66.58% (65994) - 8679 /
51.8%
4 - Dante (36:1) - 22055 / 33.42%
(65994)
11 - Aeris (90:1) - 50055 /
76.93% (65064) - 8965 / 53.5%
14 - Tina
Armstrong (500:1) - 15009 / 23.07% (65064)
7 -
Knuckles the Echidna (225:1) - 26748 / 39.29% (68083)
2 -
Solid Snake (8:1) - 41335 / 60.71%
(68083) - 12771 / 76.2%
-SOUTH
DIVISION-
1 - Pac-Man (60:1) - 32607 /
62.84% (51889) - 10871 / 64.8%
9 - Kyo Kusanagi
(300:1) - 19282 / 37.16% (51889)
5 - Scorpion
(150:1) - 39171 / 65.37% (59925) - 5636 /
33.6%
4 - Max Payne (80:1) - 20754 / 34.63%
(59925)
6 - Bomberman (250:1) - 27432 / 42.03%
(65260)
3 - Jill Valentine (180:1) -
37828 / 57.97% (65260) - 5440 / 32.5%
7
- Strider Hiryu (250:1) - 17270 / 24.23% (71262)
2 -
Link (9:1) - 53992 / 75.77% (71262) -
13493 / 80.5%
-WEST DIVISION-
1 - Sonic the
Hedgehog (45:1) - 33602 / 58.83% (57118) -
10188 / 60.8%
8 - Tidus (90:1) - 23516 / 41.17%
(57118) |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 12:30:58 AM | Message
Detail
|
Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in
brackets)
1) Mega Man 92.30% vs. Ms. Pac-Man
7.70% - (84.60%)
2) Sephiroth 87.71% vs.
Gabe Logan 12.29% - (75.42%)
3) Link 84.31%
vs. Little Mac 15.69% - (68.62%)
4) Sonic the
Hedgehog 82.44% vs. Pitfall Harry 17.56% -
(64.88%)
5) Ryu 80.79% vs. CATS 19.21% -
(61.58%)
6) Knuckles the Echidna 80.56% vs. Akira
Yuki 19.44% - (61.12%)
7) (ii) Pikachu
20.49% vs. Cloud Strife 79.51% - (59.02%)
8)
Bomberman 78.11% vs. Kane 21.89% -
(56.22%)
9) (ii) Aeris 76.93% vs. Tina Armstrong
23.07% - (53.86%)
10) Crono 76.78% vs. Simon
Belmont 23.22% - (53.56%)
Top 10 Biggest
Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)
1) Mega Man
63039 vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5257 - (57782)
2)
Sephiroth 61367 vs. Gabe Logan 8602 -
(52765)
3) Link 59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 -
(48433)
4) (ii) Pikachu 15445 vs. Cloud Strife
59926 - (44481)
5) Sonic the Hedgehog 53023
vs. Pitfall Harry 11292 - (41731)
6) Knuckles the
Echidna 49964 vs. Akira Yuki 12057 -
(37907)
7) (ii) Strider Hiryu 17270 vs. Link
53992 - (36722)
8) Cloud Strife 54643 vs.
Fox McCloud 18599 - (36044)
9) Ryu 46869 vs.
CATS 11145 - (35724)
10) (ii) Aeris 50055
vs. Tina Armstrong 15009 - (35046)
Top
10 Closest Matches (difference in brackets)
1) (ii)
Donkey Kong 51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% -
(2.12%)
2) Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel
47.43% - (5.14%)
3) Jill Valentine 53.34%
vs. Kirby 46.66% - (6.68%)
4) Alucard 54.32%
vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
5)
Pikachu 54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% -
(8.82%)
6) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield
44.54% - (10.92%)
7) Kyo Kusanagi 57.79% vs.
Abe 42.21% - (15.58%)
8) (ii) Bomberman
42.03% vs. Jill Valentine 57.97% -
(15.94%)
9) Serious Sam 58.73% vs. Mr. Driller
41.27% - (17.46%)
10) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog
58.83% vs. Tidus 41.17% -
(17.66%)
Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps
(difference in brackets)
1) (ii) Donkey Kong 31798 vs.
Aya Brea 30478 - (1320)
2) Strider Hiryu
30662 vs. Raziel 27661 - (3001)
3) Jill
Valentine 37539 vs. Kirby 32837 - (4702)
4)
Pikachu 30711 vs. PaRappa The Rapper 25736 -
(4975)
5) Alucard 33516 vs. Miles "Tails" Prower
28190 - (5326)
6) Tidus 35004 vs. Claire
Redfield 28117 - (6887)
7) Kyo Kusanagi
31160 vs. Abe 22760 - (8400)
8) Serious Sam
32301 vs. Mr. Driller 22696 - (9605)
9) (ii)
Sonic the Hedgehog 33602 vs. Tidus 23516 -
(10086)
10) (ii) Bomberman 27432 vs. Jill Valentine
37828 - (10396)
Top 10 Most Popular
Polls (by vote totals)
1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371
2) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
3)
Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676
4) (ii) Strider
Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
5) Link vs. Little Mac -
70585
6) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
7)
Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan - 69969
8) Mega Man vs. Ms.
Pac-Man - 68296
9) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna vs. Solid
Snake - 68083
10) (ii) Mario vs. Morrigan Aensland -
66532 |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 12:31:58 AM | Message
Detail
|
Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote
totals)
1) Max Payne vs. Dirk the Daring - 50816
2)
(ii) Pac-Man vs. Kyo Kusanagi - 51889
3) Bomberman vs.
Kane - 52419
4) Donkey Kong vs. Bub - 52618
5)
Duke Nukem vs. Iori Yagami - 52874
6) Mario vs. Servbot -
53213
7) Kyo Kusanagi vs. Abe - 53920
8) Serious
Sam vs. Mr. Driller - 54997
9) Ryo Hazuki vs. Guybrush
Threepwood - 55392
10) Tina Armstrong vs. Gordon Freeman -
56361
Top 10 Biggest Vote Getters
1)
Mega Man - 63039
2) Sephiroth - 61367
3) (ii)
Cloud Strife - 59926
4) Link - 59509
5) Cloud
Strife - 54643
6) (ii) Link - 53992
7) Sonic the
Hedgehog - 53023
8) (ii) Aeris - 50055
9)
Knuckles the Echidna - 49964
10) Crono -
49283
Top 10 Lowest Vote Getters
1)
Ms. Pac-Man - 5257
2) Gabe Logan - 8602
3)
Little Mac - 11076
4) CATS - 11145
5) Pitfall
Harry - 11292
6) Kane - 11476
7) Akira Yuki -
12057
8) Dirk the Daring - 12109
9) Servbot -
13777
10) Simon Belmont - 14906
Top
10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)
1) Strider Hiryu -
30662
2) Pikachu - 30711
3) Kyo Kusanagi -
31160
4) (ii) Donkey Kong - 31798
5) Serious Sam
- 32301
6) Donkey Kong - 32602
7) (ii) Pac-Man -
32607
8) Duke Nukem - 33160
9) Alucard -
33516
10) (ii) Sonic the Hedgehog -
33602
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by
votes)
1) Kirby - 32837
2) (ii) Aya Brea -
30478
3) Miles "Tails" Prower - 28190
4) Claire
Redfield - 28117
5) Raziel - 27661
6) (ii)
Bomberman - 27432
7) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna -
26748
8) PaRappa The Rapper - 25736
9) (ii) Ryo
Hazuki - 24834
10) Squall Leonhart -
24779
Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict
(based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner - North
Division not included)
1) Link 96.4% vs. Little Mac
3.6%
2) Sonic the Hedgehog 95.6% vs. Pitfall Harry
4.4%
3) Mega Man 94.1% vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5.9%
4) Max
Payne 91.9% vs. Dirk the Daring 8.1%
5) Sephiroth
90.2% vs. Gabe Logan 9.8%
6) Lara Croft 88.4% vs. Chop
Chop Master Onion 11.6%
7) Ryu 87.0% vs. CATS 13.0%
8)
Solid Snake 83.8% vs. Squall Leonhart 16.2%
9) Pac-Man
81.7% vs. Goemon 18.3%
10) (ii) Mario 81.7% vs.
Morrigan Aensland
Top 10 Hardest Matches to
Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the
winner - First Round North Division not included)
1) (ii)
Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
2) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill
Valentine 32.5%
3) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max
Payne
4) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong
43.7%
5) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%
6)
Jill Valentine 50.8% vs. Kirby 49.2%
7) (ii) Crono
51.8% vs. Dante
8) (ii) Aeris 53.5% vs. Tina
Armstrong
9) Strider Hiryu 56.0% vs. Raziel 44.0%
10)
(ii) Sonic the Hedgehog 60.8% vs. Tidus
There you
have it. Look for nightly stat updates, daily analysis, and
hopefully some interesting discussion. :)
Special
Thanks: Kirby Still On Top, Jjukil, NeoElfboy, King
Morgoth
Additional Thanks: Terran, Samberdog,
marsman47, Ringworm, Who Cares?, and everyone else who supported the
stats posts
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Siege1331
| Posted: 8/15/2002 12:33:25 AM | Message
Detail
|
Thanks Solar, you put a lot of effort into this
and it shows
---
"Note to self, no matter how bad life gets,
remember that there is always beer." -Norm McDonald
SHINE
GET! |
| From: GipFace
| Posted: 8/15/2002 12:34:30 AM | Message
Detail
|
Again, excellent work,
solarshadow!
---
.: GipFace
:.
http://www.livejournal.com/~gip - My LiveJournal |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/15/2002 12:37:47 AM | Message
Detail
|
More great work Solar!
*Is happy with his
shoutout*
---
Muse of the Day: How come "thaw" and
"unthaw" mean the same thing? |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/15/2002 12:42:49 AM | Message
Detail
|
Well at least I know now that Sonic beating
Tidus was in the 10 hardest matches to predict. Makes me feel a bit
better about getting it wrong :/
Also thanks for the mention,
and keep up the great work!
---
Everyone that says "There's no
such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never visited this
board. |
| From: Terran
| Posted: 8/15/2002 12:44:26 AM | Message
Detail
|
Thanks Solar ^_^
---
Microsoft, Sony
and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"Goodbye world. You
know, I'd always thought you'd die before me." - Homer Simpson |
| From: Ngamer64
| Posted: 8/15/2002 12:47:53 AM | Message
Detail
|
Great work, Solar, good to have a topic back up.
"What's this? Complete statistics for the GameFAQs Summer Contest?
How the hell does that relate to the GameFAQs Summer
Contest?" *click*
Oh, well, the old title still said "full
first round stats," so maybe it's for the best. But getting back to
the contest... I think the Sonic/Tidus match deserves an asterisk
next to it in the official record. It was on pace to easily become
one of the Top 3 most popular polls before the down-time hit this
morning. It's incredible that it did as well as it did after being
shut down for well over 4 hours (during peak voting time, no
less).
---
the-elite.net |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/15/2002 1:01:08 AM | Message
Detail
|
And the Board's best topic is
reborn.
Thanks for bringing it back, and as always, nice job
with the stats.
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your
massive intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 1:56:35 AM | Message
Detail
|
Thanks everyone. I actually enjoy posting the
stats (most of the time) so it's nice to have the topic
back.
The stats website has been updated for tonight, and a
new poll has been added. Check it out if you're interested. Whew, I
need some rest.
Ngamer64: Yeah, it was basically time to
start a new post, it just would've been nice to have done it on my
own terms. Plus, the old one still would have made a good reference.
Anyway, I suppose I should consider an asterisk or something for the
Sonic/Tidus bout. You're right about it getting nailed during peak
voting time. That had to hurt. I wonder if it drastically affected
the amount of voters or if most of them just ended up voting at a
different time? The match still managed to get a respectable vote
total, but it probably would've been well into the 65000 range
without the downtime. Hard to say what the overall effect was, but I
don't think Sonic deserved to make the "Least Impressive Winners"
list.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Mac
Arrowny | Posted: 8/15/2002 7:42:48 AM | Message
Detail
|
| Excellent, the stat topic is back! This is one
of the things that makes the Summer Contest so great, this topic and
these stats. It's always nice to know how many other people lose
with you when you lose a match, or how many you beat when you get
one right. It's just a shame that the old topic got deleted. |
| From: marsman57
| Posted: 8/15/2002 8:04:35 AM | Message
Detail
|
At least get the number behind my name right =P
I see how much I'm loved ^_~
I'm just teasing, honest typo. I
was looking for your topic last night and wondering what the heck
happened to it. I'm glad to see it back. I'm surprised it was modded
for that though and deleted instead of closed especially since
topicality was taken off moments later... Besides, how did it last
so long without being modded then suddenly get that way. I think
that was more of an excuse to get a new topic created because of the
particularly large messages throughout that topic.
---
"Got a
bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!"
-- 8-bit theater |
| From: marsman57
| Posted: 8/15/2002 8:05:02 AM | Message
Detail
|
Oh yeah and... great new stats. I still feel a
lot better that two of the matches I missed were 2 and 3 in hardest
to predict ^_^.
---
"Got a bad case of the Mondays? That's why
Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater |
| From: Ace2K
| Posted: 8/15/2002 8:15:06 AM | Message
Detail
|
good job and everything on compiling the stats,
i commend you, but on the closest match thing, i dont think that the
match between sonic and tidus should be included. The reason for
this beacause the Gamefaqs server was down for most of the day so
most people didnt get a chance to vote (i myself came back five time
before my vote counted)
---
Walk a mile in someones shoes
before u criticize them, that way ur a mile away and u have their
shoes. |
| From: Kirby
Still On Top | Posted: 8/15/2002 8:18:24 AM | Message
Detail
|
*Jumps for joy*
---
If at first you don't
succeed, give up hope and smoke some weed! |
| From: DecaffeinatedPenguin
| Posted: 8/15/2002 9:25:39 AM | Message
Detail
|
if the sonic/tidus poll was down for exactly
four hours, his 'modified vote total would of been
40,322
---
"Here, have some pills...pills are gooooood."~Jim
Carey in dumb and dumber |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 1:19:48 PM | Message
Detail
|
Ack, sorry about that, marsman57. Wait, I
mean, what are you talking about? I meant to thank marsman47. I sure
do like that guy. I just wish he'd post around here more often...
;)
As for the old topic, it lasted for almost 2 weeks with
over 120 on-topic posts. How it could suddenly be deleted is beyond
me. There should be rules against that.
The poll being down
for the Sonic/Tidus match was unfortunate. It was down for about 4
hours from 11AM-3PM (I believe), and as we know from the vote
distribution graph that's a very busy time of the day. So we can
expect that the actual vote totals would have been much higher if
the poll hadn't gone down. Although we also have to expect that some
people who would've voted during those 4 hours ended up voting later
anyway. So maybe it wasn't quite as bad as it looks. It's awfully
unfortunate though, since it messes with the Top 10 lists. I guess
an asterisk is probably in order (but maybe not on the "Closest
Matches" list, since the percentages would have remained almost the
same anyway).
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: lordjers
| Posted: 8/15/2002 1:23:55 PM | Message
Detail
|
Good job Solarshadow, guess this is what it
takes to beat me in the user contest. I wish you good luck on later
rounds *crosses fingers at his back*
---
Get a life?? GAMING
is MY LIFE!!!
Winner of the Summer 2002 Trivia contest |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 4:27:38 PM | Message
Detail
|
Heh. :) Yeah, I was surprised to beat you,
lordjers. I guess more people visit the stats topic than I thought.
Even dark cloud voted for me, and I beat him last round. Good to
know revenge voting wasn't a factor. ;)
---
Full Contest
Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: lordjers
| Posted: 8/15/2002 4:30:14 PM | Message
Detail
|
Surprised? I was surprised I could make it to
Round 2, considering and don't have a stats topic and my contests
always suck.
---
Get a life?? GAMING is MY LIFE!!!
Winner
of the Summer 2002 Trivia contest |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 4:35:55 PM | Message
Detail
|
Well, you destroyed Ffantasymaster in the first
round. It was one of the biggest blowouts of the tournament and you
seemed to have built a pretty good following. I figured I was done
for. It was a close battle for most of the day but I guess the stats
saved my hide. Yay stats!
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: lordjers
| Posted: 8/15/2002 4:40:58 PM | Message
Detail
|
I was gonna vote for that one, but the topic got
closed while I was typing. Damn luck! It is when it matters when I'm
not there, why? why?
---
Get a life?? GAMING is MY
LIFE!!!
Winner of the Summer 2002 Trivia contest |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 5:18:19 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some quick Strider vs. Link analysis (didn't get
to do this yesterday, for obvious reasons...).
The juggernaut
rolls on. Link dispatched Strider fairly easily in the 12th biggest
blowout of the tournament so far. However, Strider still managed to
get 24% of the vote, which I think is a little more than most people
expected. Is this Link's first sign of weakness, or did we simply
underestimate Strider? Probably the latter, but Link's next battle
against Jill should give us a better idea.
Link became only
the second character to break the 50000 vote barrier twice (Cloud
was the first), and both of his matches have drawn over 70000 total
voters. Strider's previous match brought in only 58000 votes,
although his share of the votes was almost double the 17000 he got
this time around. He may've eeked out a win over Raziel, but Link
was far too much for him to handle.
The really interesting
news is how very close Link and Cloud are in a number of important
categories. Take a look at these Top 10 list excerpts:
Top
10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)
3) Link
59509 vs. Little Mac 11076 - (48433)
4) (ii)
Cloud Strife 59926 vs. Pikachu 15445 -
(44481)
...
7) (ii) Link 53992 vs. Strider Hiryu
17270 - (36722)
8) Cloud Strife 54643 vs.
Fox McCloud 18599 - (36044)
Top 10 Most
Popular Polls (by vote totals)
1) (ii) Cloud Strife vs.
Pikachu - 75371
2) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud -
73242
...
4) (ii) Link vs. Strider Hiryu -
71262
5) Link vs. Little Mac - 70585
Top
10 Biggest Vote Getters
3) (ii) Cloud Strife -
59926
4) Link - 59509
5) Cloud Strife -
54643
6) (ii) Link - 53992
The two of them
are always side by side and very near the top of the most impressive
categories. A ton of people show up to vote in these matches with
the overwhelming majority of voters picking each of them. Cloud has
the highest combined vote total at 114569, with Link just behind at
113501 (for comparison, Mario's overall total is 83884 and Snake's
is 88232). Of course, Mega Man and Sephiroth could easily top these
numbers after their second round matches, but for now those two are
at the top of the heap. With such similar numbers it could be a
very interesting battle if Link and Cloud ever met, but that
match would have to take place in the finals so we shouldn't look
too far ahead just yet.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/15/2002 7:33:10 PM | Message
Detail
|
Interesting, I still don't think either Cloud or
Link will make the final, but seeing as I've been wrong with most
other things - don't trust me. I've got Sephy beating Snake in the
final, and I'm still confident of that part of my bracket at
least.
---
Everyone that says "There's no such thing as a
stupid question", has obviously never visited this board. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 8:20:51 PM | Message
Detail
|
Oops, I forgot to mention the prediction
percentage in my analysis. I'm surprised that the number of people
picking Link dropped from 96.4% down to 80.5% this round. 16% (2300
people) thought either Strider or Raziel could beat Link? That seems
a little high to me. I wonder how many thought/think he can win the
next round? The likes of Kirby and Jill strike me as much tougher
opponents than Strider.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/15/2002 9:14:19 PM | Message
Detail
|
Great stats as always, Solar. Well, you
know...as they always were before I left. =) And I like the
analysis! Wish I could've seen more of the other ones before the
topic was modded....
Speaking of which, that topic's pages
may still be in your cache. If you haven't already, try setting IE
to Work Offline, then go to the second page of your old topic.
(Here's a
link:
http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=3747804&page=1
If
that doesn't work, switch s2 to s1.) If you read every page of the
topic before it was modded, and you don't have a tiny cache size or
something, the pages should still be there. I already tried checking
my cache, but I only have a few pages.
Hope it works out. (If
it does, could you post the analyses on your site? I'd really like
to see 'em.)
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 9:50:13 PM | Message
Detail
|
Some brief Sonic vs. Tidus
analysis.
Another Square character falls (much to the chagrin
of some). This was a much tougher battle for Sonic than his first
round drubbing of Pitfall Harry, but he still sped past Tidus and
into the third round.
Before I continue, I ought to mention
that this match deserves a big asterisk. The poll was down for 4
hours in the middle of the day, just around peak voting times. So
all the vote totals are likely to be much lower than they normally
would be. Just keep that in mind.
Regardless of votes, this
was the 10th closest match percentagewise. Sonic was down almost 25%
compared to his first round match, receiving only 60% this time
around. Tidus, who narrowly squeaked out a 55/45 win over Claire,
dropped down to only 40% of the vote versus Sonic.
Due in
part to the poll being down I'm sure, Sonic only garnered 33000
votes this time, 20000 lower than his first match. Tidus' total was
down to 24000 from his previous 35000. Even with the voting outage
the match managed to stay off the Top 10 Least Popular Polls list,
finishing 14th in that regard with a little over 57000 votes. Not
bad, considering.
The prediction percentage dropped
tremendously, from 95.6% down to only 60.8%. That makes it the 10th
hardest match to predict, narrowly edging out the Tidus/Claire match
(appropriately enough) which also had only 60.8% (and a bit) of the
people predict it right. 35% of the entrants who picked Sonic in the
first round thought Tidus or Claire would be his doom.
Tidus
put up a bit of a fight but it wasn't nearly enough. It will be
interesting to see if Samus can give Sonic a better challenge in the
next round.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 9:53:28 PM | Message
Detail
|
Hey, it's Jjukil! Hooray! Good to see you around
again.
Great idea about the cache. I'm busy at the moment but
I'll have a look through it soon and get back to you.
Thanks.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: King
Morgoth | Posted: 8/15/2002 9:55:42 PM | Message
Detail
|
Keep up the good work Solar!
I'm wondering if
I'm the only one here who has Link beating Cloud in the Final? I
know that a lot of people in the Top 50 have either Link or Cloud
going all the way but I'm afraid the the final will be
Mario/Sephiroth or Mario/Megaman...
*brings in a huge "Go Link"
flag and runs away*
---
"Everything gold does not
glitter
Not all those who wander are lost" |
| From: Ringworm
| Posted: 8/15/2002 10:03:04 PM | Message
Detail
|
You'll have some more stats to update now -
check the results page. Apparently Spyro v Morrigan was a bit of an
upset, I got it right though :P.
---
Everyone that says
"There's no such thing as a stupid question", has obviously never
visited this board. |
| From: Fo
tha luv of Moddyz | Posted: 8/15/2002 10:23:28 PM | Message
Detail
|
| Do you need a hobby? |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 11:01:04 PM | Message
Detail
|
Sweet!!! Aw man, I've been wanting those
numbers for so long! :) Spyro and Morrigan being an upset surprises
me though. Cool.
Jjukil: I could only find 4 of the 21+ pages
in my cache. Which sucks because I know I visited them all fairly
recently when I was looking through them. Maybe some of the other
regular visitors can look through their cache to find more. If
anyone finds anything, email it to solarshadow@hotmail.com (not an
email address I check often, but it should do the
trick).
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: SamusManCO2002
| Posted: 8/15/2002 11:27:02 PM | Message
Detail
|
Ummmmm. Solar Shadow. Love the site. I would
have enjoyed to do the stats myself, but alas, I don't have the
no-know nor the time...
I've looked at the site and loved it
except for one thing...
Is there a page with the odds for each
character only? In a list exactly the same as CJayC's...if you
don't, could you make one?
---
SA2B: 180 Emblems
SSBM: 290
Trophies...The Dead Man is still walking.... |
| From: TearHerEyes
| Posted: 8/15/2002 11:34:30 PM | Message
Detail
|
| You really ought to do something more productive
with all that time on your hands. |
| From: marsman57
| Posted: 8/15/2002 11:45:08 PM | Message
Detail
|
Gahhhhhhhhhhhhhh... I was gonna tell you about
the numbers CJayC posted, but then you already knew ^_^. Oh well,
I'm glad you found them. Now you can number crunch for about a week
and figure out who picked everything ^_^..... I think
---
"Got
a bad case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT
COFFEE!" -- 8-bit theater |
| From: marsman57
| Posted: 8/15/2002 11:47:28 PM | Message
Detail
|
Hmm... poor Little Mac. Less people picked him
to advance than ANYONE else... even Servbot..
---
"Got a bad
case of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" --
8-bit theater |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 11:51:04 PM | Message
Detail
|
Tonight's Results:
5 - Samus Aran
(36:1) - 39293 / 57.85% (67923) - 9726 /
58.0%
4 - Ryu (55:1) - 28630 / 42.15%
(67923)
Updated Lists:
Top 10 Closest
Matches (difference in brackets)
1) (ii) Donkey Kong
51.06% vs. Aya Brea 48.94% - (2.12%)
2)
Strider Hiryu 52.57% vs. Raziel 47.43% -
(5.14%)
3) Jill Valentine 53.34% vs. Kirby
46.66% - (6.68%)
4) Alucard 54.32% vs. Miles
"Tails" Prower 45.68% - (8.64%)
5) Pikachu
54.41% vs. PaRappa The Rapper 45.59% -
(8.82%)
6) Tidus 55.46% vs. Claire Redfield
44.54% - (10.92%)
7) Kyo Kusanagi 57.79% vs.
Abe 42.21% - (15.58%)
8) (ii) Samus Aran
57.85% vs. Ryu 42.15% - (15.70%)
9) (ii)
Bomberman 42.03% vs. Jill Valentine 57.97% -
(15.94%)
10) Serious Sam 58.73% vs. Mr. Driller
41.27% - (17.46%)
Top 10 Most Popular
Polls (by vote totals)
1) (ii) Pikachu vs. Cloud Strife -
75371
2) Cloud Strife vs. Fox McCloud - 73242
3)
Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart - 71676
4) (ii) Strider
Hiryu vs. Link - 71262
5) Link vs. Little Mac -
70585
6) Jill Valentine vs. Kirby - 70376
7)
Sephiroth vs. Gabe Logan - 69969
8) Mega Man vs. Ms.
Pac-Man - 68296
9) (ii) Knuckles the Echidna vs. Solid
Snake - 68083
10) (ii) Samus Aran vs. Ryu -
67923
Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by
votes)
1) Kirby - 32837
2) (ii) Aya Brea -
30478
3) (ii) Ryu - 28630
4) Miles "Tails"
Prower - 28190
5) Claire Redfield - 28117
6)
Raziel - 27661
7) (ii) Bomberman - 27432
8) (ii)
Knuckles the Echidna - 26748
9) PaRappa The Rapper -
25736
10) (ii) Ryo Hazuki -
24834
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/15/2002 11:58:01 PM | Message
Detail
|
Special Update:
Now that CJayC has posted
the North Division stats we can finally see which were the
real easiest and hardest to predict matches. Ta
da:
Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on
percentage of contest entrants choosing the winner - First Round
North Division included!)
1) Link 96.4% vs.
Little Mac 3.6%
2) Mario 95.9% vs. Servbot 4.1%
3)
Sonic the Hedgehog 95.6% vs. Pitfall Harry 4.4%
4)
Donkey Kong 94.2% vs. Bub 5.8%
5) Mega Man 94.1%
vs. Ms. Pac-Man 5.9%
6) Max Payne 91.9% vs. Dirk the
Daring 8.1%
7) Sephiroth 90.2% vs. Gabe Logan 9.8%
8)
Lara Croft 88.4% vs. Chop Chop Master Onion 11.6%
9)
Ryu 87.0% vs. CATS 13.0%
10) Duke Nukem 83.9% vs.
Iori Yagami 16.1%
Top 10 Hardest Matches to
Predict (based on percentage of contest entrants choosing the
winner - First Round North Division included!)
1) (ii)
Alucard 28.8% vs. Duke Nukem
2) (ii) Bomberman vs. Jill
Valentine 32.5%
3) (ii) Scorpion 33.6% vs. Max
Payne
4) Morrigan Aensland 42.3% vs. Spyro the Dragon
57.7%
5) Gordon Freeman 56.3% vs. Tina Armstrong
43.7%
6) Abe 49.5% vs. Kyo Kusanagi 50.5%
7)
Jill Valentine 50.8% vs. Kirby 49.2%
8) Alucard
51.4% vs. Miles "Tails" Prower 48.6%
9) (ii) Crono
51.8% vs. Dante
10) (ii) Aeris 53.5% vs. Tina
Armstrong
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Clout2k
| Posted: 8/15/2002 11:59:42 PM | Message
Detail
|
And I thought I was good at math. I guess it's a
pretty simple process but i don't even want to think about sitting
around trying to figure those out, good job man...
---
DO NOT
PURSUE LU BU!!!! |
| From: marsman57
| Posted: 8/16/2002 12:02:49 AM | Message
Detail
|
Well, unless I'm mistaken, which I don't think I
am, the hardest part of making the stats is figuring out how many
people got each match correct. This is much easier now, which is
really good because that means solarshadow gets more time to number
crunch and otherwise compare the stats ^_^
---
"Got a bad case
of the Mondays? That's why Lord Chaos invented CAT COFFEE!" -- 8-bit
theater |
| From: NeoElfboy
| Posted: 8/16/2002 12:06:50 AM | Message
Detail
|
*whistles*
Check out the slaughter. I see
a number of lists needing updates tomorrow,
Solar...
~NeoElfboy
---
"Sometimes I think your massive
intelligence penalties are so immense that they fold in upon
themselves and transform into stat bonuses!"
-RM
<VetSCCer> |
| From: josh
welling da man | Posted: 8/16/2002 12:15:34 AM | Message
Detail
|
That is indeed, well done, but I'm just
surprised that someone (some people) would take this contest so
seriously as to make calculate statistics and make a dedicated
site.
---
Thanks for reading another post by the Great
Josh Welling. |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/16/2002 12:15:35 AM | Message
Detail
|
marsman57: Yeah, that was always the
hardest/most time consuming part. Most of the rest of it is just cut
and pasting and rearranging the numbers. It looks daunting when you
see them all at once, but it only takes 10-15 minutes each day to
add in the newest match. Although the website is starting to take
awhile to update with all those sections I've added.
Which
reminds me, the website won't be further updated tonight. The stats
sections are already updated (with the new prediction stuff too),
but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to do the rest. Just so you
know. I also snuck Spyro's name onto the poll, so you can vote again
if that was your preferred choice (I didn't realize he deserved to
be there until I saw the numbers).
SamusManCO2002: I've got
the odds up here: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/odds.html
Is
that what you were looking for?
NeoElfboy: *sigh* As much as
I love seeing blowouts I always cringe because I know it means more
work for me. :) Oh well, this one should be fun
anyway.
---
Full Contest Stats:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Samberdog
| Posted: 8/16/2002 12:16:26 AM | Message
Detail
|
Morrigan VS Spryo is pretty surprising. Morrigan
had much better odds, and although I got that match wrong, I never
would have suspected that the majority of the players did
too.
Either people seriously underestimated the popularity of
Darkstalkers, or TJF really *was* at work.
Hmmm...
---
Muse of the Day: How come "thaw" and
"unthaw" mean the same thing? |
| From: Jjukil
| Posted: 8/16/2002 12:26:49 AM | Message
Detail
|
I think people just overestimated Spyro. He
never really caught on as much as they wanted him to--kind of like
Crash, but moreso. He had a lot of TV spots, true, but didn't most
of the stuff Sony published?
Thanks, Jjukil |
| From: solarshadow
| Posted: 8/16/2002 12:33:32 AM | Message
Detail
|
I'd probably agree with that. I was surprised at
the amount of outrage on the boards when Spyro lost. I thought, it's
just Spyro, have that many people played and enjoyed his games?
Maybe they thought he could win on recognition, but I didn't even
hesitate when picking Morrigan in my bracket.
---
Full
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com |
| From: Notti
| Posted: 8/16/2002 2:57:08 AM | Message
Detail
|
It's... full of stars.
---
•~• •¦•
Nottingham •~• •¦•
‡‡ "Never gonna get me. Never gonna
get me. Never gonna get me I'm the..." ‡‡
http://www.infidels.org/~meta/getalife/ |
| From: Kirby
Still On Top | Posted: 8/16/2002 3:20:35 AM | Message
Detail
|
Wowww, the north stats have finally
come!!!
Hurray!!!!!!!
I can't wait to hear your
analysis on todays match. I'm starting to fear MegaMan quite
frankly...
---
If at first you don't succeed, give up hope and
smoke some weed! |
| From: Kirby
Still On Top | Posted: 8/16/2002 3:27:48 AM | Message
Detail
|
Nightly useless contribution :)
Top 49
contestants winners:
Mario - 15
Link - 14
Cloud -
6
Sephiroth - 5
Snake - 4
Lara - 2
Crono - 1
Mega Man
- 1
Samus - 1
Bunch of randoms have
appeared...
---
If at first you don't succeed, give up hope
and smoke some weed! |
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