GameFAQs Contests
Ngamer's Initial 2008 Contest Impressions
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/21/2008 7:06:43 PM | message detail |
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I know, I know, there are 100 of these topics, so why should you pay attention to mine? Well, no need to- but I haven't looked at this new bracket at all yet, and want someplace to writedown my initial gut reactions, so I'll be able to look back on them later and see where I led myself astray. So, follow along if you'd like! Before we start, here are the two other tabs I'm going to have open as I make my comments. Perhaps you would like to have them open as well, to follow along. http://www.thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?year=2007c http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:2007_Contest_Matches GameFAQs Contest season is my favorite time of the year... but will this be a bracket worth getting overly excited about? Let's find out! --- Seventh verse, same as the sixth. 128 characters. 4 characters battle, 2 move on. Well now, I can't say I'm especially surprised. As soon as we started digging into that nomination form and discovered that SB had entered 183 characters to the suggested list automatically, I was pretty much convinced we would be seeing another 128 character bracket of some kind. Then when he expanded the field even further, I became pretty much positive that he was going to add a new "twist" in the form of Tag Team matches- so Link would be paired up with the 128th character in, Cloud with the 127th, and so forth. In the face of THAT, a return to 4-ways isn't really so awful. While I agree with the Stats consensus that 4-ways were a fun one-time gimmick that we didn't need to see again, eh, I still understand where SB is coming from. What characters really needed was some time off, which was why I pushed so hard for the Game Contest. But as is, we're going to have another year where the stats don't matter, then the Game Contest, then 1v1 Characters in the late Summer of '09... and THAT should be pretty interesting, since the last reliable set of numbers we'll be able to use will be those from way back in 2006! So in other words even if this Contest ends up being kind of a dud, I think then next two should be really good, so I can't fault SB too much. The logo. Ha, that's kind of cool. When CBVII was announced, some people in Stats were joking about how that must have been a sign that it would be FF7's big year... SB was clearly thinking along the same lines! I wonder how much such a biased opening logo will affect people predictions. Could certainly see something so nostalgic causing some people to pick Cloud to go farther than they would normally. Or what if variations of the FF7 theme remain the logo throughout the entire voting process? Could certainly subtly affect the way people vote... and with Square already being such a force in the 4-way format, this could be a heck of a season for them! Pick the first and second place characters who will move on from each day's poll in order of finish. Ah, there we go! You can accuse SB of a lack of creativity if you'd like, but at least the man learns from his mistakes, and he's already gone ahead and corrected his biggest one of '07 right off the bat. The stats showed that right around half of last season's predictors had no idea that order mattered, and that a further 10% or so picked as though it was just 1v1s with Player 1 fighting Player 2, and Player 3 fighting #4! And now I've moved ahead and see that he's even clarified the rule right on the bracket page, in bright yellow highlighting. Excellent work SB! Also, if you don't recognize someone, hover your mouse over their name to see a brief description. Ahh, very nicely done. I believe he set it up the same way back in '07, but in any case, it's a nice touch and very helpful. |
| TheArkOfTurus | Posted 8/21/2008 7:07:15 PM | message detail |
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Tag. --- Our eyes were removed For our own safety. 3823-8286-6059 |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/21/2008 7:07:38 PM | message detail |
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Division One Jade Curtiss? Oh, you have GOT to be kidding me! When are people going to finally learn to stop wasting space on Tales characters? Jade proved himself to be one of the weakest characters in Contest HISTORY last season, finishing dead last in probably the weakest 4-pack of the whole season, as well as dead last in the overall X-stats. There's absolutely no excuse for bringing a character back after that. Zack I'm happy to see here- although I'm pretty sure he's going to bomb Balthier-style, he at least has some of the better potential of any newcomer. It's unfortunate, though, that Wario gets the free win due to Cecil LFFing strength away from Zack. Pick: Wario > Zack Oh good heavens, more Tales fodder? I realize you're going to see some tremendous weakness in a 4-pack opposite Link, but Agent J and Bidoof were at least funny fodder. As to the battle for second place, well... I don't think it will be much of a battle. Yes, Sonic Team sucks in 4 ways while Square is strong, but after the way Zidane fumbled away a perfect opportunity in that Ness/Liquid Snake/Alcuard fiasco, I'm putting 0 faith in him. I guess he'll have a chance at least since Link will hurt Shadow more than him... but it's not what I'd call a fighter's chance. Pick: Link > Shadow Hmmm, this is pretty interesting. Marth has been used as the poster boy for what strength being in Melee alone will grant a character, and honestly even putting FE aside, SSB should be enough to win this pack for him. Duke surprised me with that upset of Freeman last year, but lived up to his billing by collapsing once the opposition got tougher, so I think Kefka should be able to edge him. That leaves Niko... normally I'm extremely disrespectful to GTA and especially its characters, but Niko actually seems fairly well-liked, and this certainly sets us up for an epic Day/Night vote swing, like the one Marcus pulled on Kefka last time. Hm... I'm going to back Kefka here, but with very little confidence. Pick: Marth > Kefka Hey hey, that Guru rally sure paid off! Altair not only makes the cut, but earns a very winnable position. With no one else to hurt his Brawl appeal and being a Pokemon and all, Lucario seems a safe bet for #1, and Guybrush is of course some of the weakest fodder the Contests have ever seen. Which leaves quite a battle for second- sure Isaac looked like junk last year, but he was fighting two RPG characters and getting GameBoy SFFed by Pikachu, so does that really tell us anything? Well I guess it at least tells us that he's capable of being hurt by a Pokemon, so with that in mind I'm going to back Altair for the moment. At the very least he's going to have a good match pic and stand out from the Nintendo competition- could be a recipe for a Kratos-like solid performance. Pick: Lucario > Altair R2 and following Well now, this is really something. Shadow > Wario was of course one of the many bracket-busting upsets of 2003, but Wario's had a bunch of new games since then + Brawl while Shadow has only disappointed. And then there's how bad Sonic is in 4 ways... but of course Link is going to be holding Wario way down; and what if he also holds down Shadow enough for the one stand-out character, Zack, to overperform? Wow, this is a really good one. I think I'm going to count on Wario's ugly showing against Fox and Meta Knight to be an indication of how badly Nintendo can hurt him and take Shadow here, but again I don't have much confidence. Pick: Link > Shadow |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/21/2008 7:07:52 PM | message detail |
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Another solid 4-pack right here. It's one of those where the top two players shouldn't be too debatable, but where they hurt each other enough that it suddenly becomes anyone's ballgame. We saw Marth fold somewhat under pressure from Donkey Kong last season, so I think that combined with Lucario's Pokemon appeal should be enough to earn him a tight win. But from there... yikes, even as badly as he has disappointed in the past, it's hard to count Kefka out. But he's burned me too many times to put much faith in him, so I think I'm going with Marth in the second spot for right now, though I could see this being one of those where every character is right near the 25% mark. Pick: Lucario > Marth Oh jeez... if this is really The King of Nintendo/SSB SFF in a 4 pack with Lucario and Marth, who's to say Shadow won't have a chance of sneaking out a tight victory? I've got to imagine Link hurts Marth the most of anyone, so I'm going to count him out, but between Shadow and an LFFed Lucario... wow, have to back Lucario for his Pokemon audience right now, but I could certainly be changing this decision before brackets go final. Pick: Link > Lucario --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/21/2008 7:08:59 PM | message detail |
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Whoa, tagged already? Well got to do some work stuff, but I'll be back pretty quick to start on Div 2. --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| trannyscience | Posted 8/21/2008 7:11:09 PM | message detail |
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spoilin' the analysis crew debut here! --- xyzzy |
| TyphlosionIsMe | Posted 8/21/2008 7:15:18 PM | message detail |
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tag --- Arrrr the SS Goku, Mighty fine boat... -fatmatt Hope Frieza doesn't chuck an Iceberg at the Goku, otherwise it's all over. -Nekoslash |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/21/2008 7:16:26 PM | message detail |
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Eh, these are just some basic thoughts on who's going to win. My Crew writeups will be focused more towards my Oracle thoughts- not WHO will win so much as HOW MUCH each character will be getting. More stat-based and less gut reaction, you could say. --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Undeniable | Posted 8/21/2008 7:19:17 PM | message detail |
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Tag --- " Let history decide if my actions were good or bad. For now we must simply forge ahead!" - Albert Simon |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 8/21/2008 7:21:40 PM | message detail |
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Tag, this outta be a good read --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 8/21/2008 7:23:46 PM | message detail |
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Good stuff, though I'm slightly annoyed by your use of the term "LFF". Cecil and Zack are SFFing each other, damnit! --- http://backloggery.com/embok/sig.gif |
| IceStormV2 | Posted 8/21/2008 7:28:51 PM | message detail |
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tag --- Nana Climber's Number 1 Fan. "IceStorm... YOU ARE A GOD!!!" -Too many people to count |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/21/2008 7:38:14 PM | message detail |
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Division Two Aw shoot, what bad placement for Sho. You have to figure if anyone would be poison to a TWEWY character, it would have to be someone more well-known from Kingdom Hearts. On the plus side, we have almost no reading on Roxas thanks to how he and Riku held each other back last year... Square looked good in 4 ways and Sora at least was very impressive, so I think I'd be backing Rox for the upset here if Sho wasn't in the mix. As is I'm going to have to side with L Snake, but with the way that guy collapses against decent competition I don't have huge confidence. Pick: Luigi > Liquid Snake Honestly now, why can Bowser never escape these Nintendo LFF situations? At least there's no Ryu in the mix this time to make a fool of him. I really like that Geno made it, and would love to see if his combined Square and Nintendo appeal would have been enough to launch him past Phoenix in a 1v1 setting. As is he'll get crushed by a strong Mario RPG party member- what a shame. As for Deckard, I guess D3 hype was enough to win over the nominators, but I don't see it winning many voters; he's pretty clearly out of his league here. Pick: Bowser > Phoenix Wowza! Such a cool matchup here... of course I'd back Zelda over Knux pretty easily in a 1v1, but after how bad she looked in that opening 4 way with Vincent, and with Mario in the poll to potentially hold her back? On the other hand, have we ever seen something Mario SFF something Zelda to any noticeable degree? And Fei should of course come out of this Nintendo LFF-fest smelling like roses, though contending for 2nd doesn't seem too reasonable. I think I'll back Knux here despite Sonic's 4 way failures of the past, but ZeldaFEAR could have me going back on this decision pretty quick. Pick: Mario > Knuckles Haha, MMX made the bracket after all! I knew SB was going to make it possible after he included him in the form, but all the rallies for X I saw died off fairly quick, so I wasn't sure he'd be able to survive the cut. In any case he won't need to perform like MM to win this weak group- and likewise, Mudkip shouldn't need too much help from 4chan to finish second. I mean come on, Lloyd couldn't even best HK-47 last season, and will only have weakened since then; why nominators continue to plague us with these Tales characters I'll never understand. Pick: MMX > Mudkip --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/21/2008 8:20:38 PM | message detail |
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Crud, problem at work, won't be able to get back to this for a little bit. --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Shaggy_Heru | Posted 8/21/2008 8:28:01 PM | message detail |
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neato --- ~Shaggy~ Nominate Claude from Grand Theft Auto III!!! Screw everyone else! |
| Dr_Football | Posted 8/21/2008 8:29:38 PM | message detail |
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awesome tag --- "Boy that is a gutless 6'7" .200 hitting formerly good player. What a joke." Tom Grieve on Richie Sexson |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 12:15:47 AM | message detail |
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I hope people don't get too hung up on my terminology... if you want to, you can just pretend I said "SFF" every time I mention LFF, as the concept doesn't change. I just like to use the L because in a multi-way poll, even the character who wins is hurt by having another option who he shares a fanbase involved, unlike how in a 1v1 only the losing character gets hurt. If you'd like to see that explanation in more detail with some examples, check out http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/LFF And I'm going to get back to going through the rest of the bracket... tomorrow afternoon! --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| voltch | Posted 8/22/2008 12:52:22 AM | message detail |
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did Square really do well last year and did Sonic fail so bad. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 8/22/2008 2:08:57 AM | message detail |
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Tag --- Joe Sakic, Captain; Career: 602 G, 966 A, 1568 P Colorado Avalanche; Season: 28 G, 51 A, 79 P |
| KommunistKoala | Posted 8/22/2008 2:10:47 AM | message detail |
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Knuckles barely beat Rikku in the first round. That's the only gleaming example I remember of fondly because of this one topic. Also tag. |
| fortybelowsummer | Posted 8/22/2008 2:11:05 AM | message detail |
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Taggin this. --- Don't be scared, just be prepared for the worst. For the Alliance |
| satai_delenn | Posted 8/22/2008 3:29:32 AM | message detail |
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Oh, tag! --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! |
| Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/22/2008 7:11:21 AM | message detail |
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Tag. Your picks sound reasonable so far, but I doubt they'll make me change my mind on the debated matches. --- A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII |
| Pyrostormer | Posted 8/22/2008 7:21:27 AM | message detail |
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Tagtagtag Ngamer is amazing at this, as always ~*01010010 01001111 01000010*~ --- Xenosaga is way better then any crappy game you enjoy. http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3592/1182804410526mu7.jpg |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 8/22/2008 7:25:43 AM | message detail |
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yessssss --- Xcarvenger: http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/9123/chocobo34kg4.jpg For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| Pyrostormer | Posted 8/22/2008 7:50:06 AM | message detail |
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Meh, I've debated Niko > Kefka enough but I want to see what Ngamer has to say about it... Anyway, in 2k5, Vercetti edged out Kefka by the smallest of margins. In 2k7, Vercetti looked noticeably weaker - http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Master_Chief_vs_Yuna_vs_Vercetti_vs_PaRappa_2007 Could you attribute Vercetti's weakness to the format of the contest, or due to an outside factor? Personally, I'd have to say it's only the latter. Vercetti did look a lot weaker in this contest, but it's not due to the format. First off, I see there being major SFF between Chief and Vercetti in his match - most of Vercetti's "casual fanbase" that would normally vote for him was instead tied up with Master Chief, a much stronger "casual fanbase" character. With this kind of format, "casual fanbase" characters are seen as performing much stronger then they normally would in a 1v1 format. Case and point: http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Kratos_vs_L-Block_vs_Kirby_vs_Donkey_Kong_2007 http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Ryu_H_vs_Riku_vs_Roxas_vs_Haseo_2007 http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Master_Chief_vs_Dante_vs_Luigi_vs_Pikachu_2007 http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Ada_vs_Balthier_vs_Frank_West_vs_Jade_Curtiss_2007 http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Marcus_vs_Kefka_vs_Tom_Nook_vs_Zelos_2007 It's quite clear that these "casual fanbase" characters (I've never really defined this, but I would say that it's characters with popular franchises on mostly Sony/Microsoft consoles, with most of their votes being in the early morning and night, while having weaker day votes) perform stronger then usual in this format, I'd guess because their fanbase will vote for them over whoever, so their numbers really show up more in this format... Anyway, looking at Kefka, he looked a bit stronger - http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Cloud_vs_Marcus_vs_Ocelot_vs_Kefka_2007 He got beat out by Marcus by quite a bit, but had the Cloud SFF to deal with. Still, Marcus over Ocelot - with all of the MGS4 hype abound - proves Marcus had real strength, and Kefka kept it pretty close in their previous match - http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Marcus_vs_Kefka_vs_Tom_Nook_vs_Zelos_2007 Without the FF SFF. Of course, FF6 Advance had been released that year (http://www.gamefaqs.com/portable/gbadvance/data/930370.html), and the Europe voters had gotten it pretty close to contest time. It's reasonable to assume that Kefka overperformed here, and this year, his strength will decline noticeably due to FF6 having faded out of the public eye. Anyway. I'd say that Vercetti's reason for looking as weak as he did last year was not because of the format, but because of a combination of Master Chief sucking away all of his votes from the casual fanbase in a clear case of LFF, AND a declining interest in his character overall. Furthermore, Kefka had just come off a release of FF6 Advance, which must've increased his strength by a reasonable amount, which is the reason he seemed as strong as he did. We cannot assume that because Vercetti bombed last year, it will say the same thing about Niko, who has just had a critically acclaimed game released, is overall a lot more popular character then Vercetti was (I can't count the number of people who have said that they liked Niko but didn't really care for Vercetti, it's quite a bit), and has nobody to LFF him here. I suppose you could make a case for Duke and Niko sharing some of the same fanbase, but the majority of would-be Duke voters would opt for Niko in this scenario anyway. Summary: Vercetti underperformed due to LFF Kefka overperformed due to FF6a Niko now is a stronger character then 2K5 Vercetti, who was stronger then 2k5 Kefka. Marth > Niko for that match is obvvvvvvv There's my Niko > Kefka argument. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 1:12:38 PM | message detail |
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It's a fine argument. I'll address it after I finish the bracket. Getting back to that in a few hours here. --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 5:26:54 PM | message detail |
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I wanna ROCK! Division 2 Round 2 and following Whoa, awesome. There's always been a fair bit of debate in the Stats topics regarding Nintendo's triangle of Green Giants: Bowser, Luigi, and Yoshi. From 2003 and 2004 results, we see that the relationship between the two at least used to be Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi... but since then Yoshi's had that amazing showing on Dante, Luigi looked great on Zero and Kirby, and Bowser has pretty much just kept falling on his face ever since the '05 Sephiroth match. If pressed, I think I'd still pick the triangle in that same order in 1v1s- but since that's not what we're dealing with here, give me Luigi! He just seems to hold up better than Bowser in the 4 way setting, and has already proven he can hang with Ganon. Of course the other question is, what if these two Mario characters hurt each other enough to let L Snake back into the match. But... nah! Pick: Luigi > Bowser How absurd is it that after 6 character battlers, we still haven't ever seen Mario vs Mega Man OR Mario vs Sonic? I guess that's the price we pay for watching so many Mario v Cronos. In any case, I've always been of the impression that MM would fold when put up against Nintendo's main man, and I'm sticking with that here. So between MMX folding and Mudkip sucking up a sizable portion of Pokemon and 4chan/joke votes, will Knux be able to make a run at him? Again... nah! It's a nice idea in theory, but in practice I can't see anything with the name "Mega Man" attached faltering that badly in a key situation. Pick: Mario > Mega Man X Holy Nintendo, Batman! You know, Mega Man wasn't really THAT far behind Samus and Mario last season, and this is pretty much the worst draw imaginable for Mario. The 3 Mario-series guys should hurt each other enough to allow MMX a free ride to the next round, but now I have to seriously consider him entering that round with a first place finish. Hm... I think for the moment I'm going to go with MM being too much Nintendo himself to truly benefit from all the LFFing, though I could easily change my mind on that one later. Pick: Mario > Mega Man X --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 5:54:10 PM | message detail |
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Division Three Honestly now, whose bright idea is it to continue wasting character slots on Crash Bandicoot? Granted he was a legit nom in '02, but get with the times people! Perhaps I shouldn't be QUITE so hard on him though- he at least hung in tight with Bomberman last year, and actually took the day vote in that match (of course with how pathetic Magus is in that area, it's not saying much). Anyways, Nightmare should have no trouble topping him, especially now that SC4's in the mix, and naturally no one's going to come close to Samus. Congrats to the nominators for getting Raz into the field BTW; there's some fodder that's at least new and somewhat interesting. Pick: Samus > Nightmare D-yikes! How is it that no matter where Frog ends up being placed in a bracket, he always manages to make things interesting? KOS is no pushover, but I think her fatal flaw may be how she's no good with the Day Vote- the weakness you have to be able to exploit in order to top anything Chrono Trigger. I see Frog starting strong as always, building up a nice lead for 3 hours, and then slowly losing it to KM overnight... Fortunately it won't matter if she takes a daytime lead, thanks to Frog's killer final hour vote! However, the fly in the ointment is Neku. Surely having another Square RPG character in the mix couldn't hold Frog back TOO much, given how vastly different the CT and TWEWY audiences must be, but in a match this tight any little LFF could be the difference. I'm going to bank on Frog's comeback power for right now, but not with much confidence. Pick: Ganon > Frog Hey hey, Falco made it in! Awesome. And what's this? A free pass to Round Two? Even more awesome! I can't BELIEVE a character slot was wasted on Wander, one of the worse pieces of fodder we've ever witnessed, but on the plus side I've got to pat the nominators on the back for pushing GlaDOS through. I don't give her any kind of chance at upsetting Falco thanks to there not being anything else SSB in this pack, but it should still be very enjoyable to see her pound away on Wander all day. Pick: Vincent > Falco Gosh, after the way he dropped the ball last season, I wouldn't have been surprised in the least to see Balthier miss the cut. But here he is, back again and... what's this, with a reasonable chance at advancing? Scorpion is pretty clearly the class of this group, but what kind of FPS overlap are we going to see between Half-Life and Bioshock fans? Balthier's no world-beater himself, but with the way Freeman somehow manages to allow life's smallest obstacles to overcome him, I can just picture these two characters going back and forth choking 2nd place away. Let's not get too crazy though, I don't think BS has the kind of playrate to allow the Daddy to take advantage of those chokejobs and steal 2nd, but... you just never know with characters this weird. I'm going to back Mr. Freeman for the moment, but not making any guarantees one way or the other here. Pick: Scorpion > Gordon --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 6:12:09 PM | message detail |
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Round Two and following Eh, this isn't quite as much excitement as I expect from a Round Two matchup. We've already seen Samus vs Ganon, and we're already seen Samus vs Frog, and heck, we've even seen Samus + Frog + Fighting Character in the same 4 pack. Sammy and G-man might hold each other back enough to help Nightmare look good, but that's about all the entertainment I see coming out of this match... I guess we could also see if Frog holds up better than he did against Scorpion. Pick: Samus > Ganon I really love that Star Fox will finally be getting a chance to prove itself outside of a Nintendo SFF crushing. I like it so much in fact that I wish it were Fox himself in this position, ready to go toe to toe with Scorpion in a battle for the second spot. As is... well, it should still be interesting, but without anything else in the mix to spoil his fighting game appeal, I've got to back the ninja here. Gordon can't really hang with this group, but who knows, maybe he'll show up to play this year and actually contend with Falco for third. Pick: Vincent > Scorpion Bah. Bah, I say! I'd be the first in line to support a Ganon vs Vincent rematch (as I still feel he could tangle with anyone in that VV/Squall/Auron elite Square group, given the right circumstances), but not like this, not like this! The Nintendo LFF will give Vince a free pass into the next round, and then it becomes a matter of seeing if Ganon holds Sam back so far that she's forced to cough up first place. It's certainly a distinct possibility, since Vincent seems to feel very much at home in the 4 way format, but Sam wasn't bad herself (even with Link in the mix), so I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt for the moment. Pick: Samus > Vincent --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2008 6:21:23 PM | message detail |
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tag --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 6:59:51 PM | message detail |
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| MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/22/2008 7:09:19 PM | message detail |
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Kratos over Alucard? --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 8/22/2008 7:10:20 PM | message detail |
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My good Ngamer, I think you're thinking of the wrong Kratos. --- Mustache...and green... |
| Heroic Palmer | Posted 8/22/2008 7:10:58 PM | message detail |
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Kratos is all kinds of dangerous you should have saw what he did last year --- http://i201.photobucket.com/albums/aa99/Psquared34/1213221259484.gif if it was Gaston!'s birthday i would let him teabag me- realo |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 8/22/2008 7:11:51 PM | message detail |
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Thrall bombed because nobody really cares about him. He dosen't have the cool factor, nor a highly anticipated release focusing on him this fall. --- Vote for Hogger! He's the hardest boss to ever exist, and he roundhouse kicks Chuck Norris. |
| Heroic Palmer | Posted 8/22/2008 7:12:07 PM | message detail |
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oh yeah that Kratos yeah n you might wanna change that -_- --- http://i201.photobucket.com/albums/aa99/Psquared34/1213221259484.gif if it was Gaston!'s birthday i would let him teabag me- realo |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 7:29:56 PM | message detail |
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| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 7:31:47 PM | message detail |
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Oh crap! Man, all the more reason to hate these stupid Tales characters- now they've forced me to re-write my writeups! Got to take care of a few things here, then I'll get back to patching up that mistake. Son of a gun. --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 7:45:02 PM | message detail |
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Well, at least that blunder proves that yes, I really am looking at this bracket for the first time without having read anyone else's thoughts beforehand. --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 8:10:10 PM | message detail |
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Ok, here's a re-do. Everything will be same except for the Kratos match thoughts! --- Division Four AGAIN Oh, would you look at that. Ammy gets rewarded for her fantastic run last season with a return trip to the Character Battle; kudos to the nominators on another fine decision! With the Okami Wiimake in her back pocket she should enter the bracket with increased strength as well- not that she'll need it to dispatch of this ugly group! Why in the world are we seeing Frank West again? This is a guy who failed to make any headway in the weakest 4-pack in Contest history, for Pete's sake. At least the group redeems itself with Kaim, who shouldn't threaten to advance but might as least give Frank a run for his money. Pick: Crono > Ammy Ohhoho! Insult SB's choice of bringing back 4 ways all you want, but here the man proves that he knows how to make a bracket. L-Block was an internet phenomenon, yes, but last season's bonus match proved that the piece was susceptible to the same weakness as everyone else: LFF. Make L the lone funny choice in a serious group and he's a powerhouse, but throw another joke into the mix and suddenly he becomes very human. Well, not human, but... you get the idea. Suddenly the entire bracket rests on the edge of a knife. Ryu and Meta Knight are both well-loved characters with recent or upcoming releases that have proven themselves to be legit contenders in a 4 way setting. Will the internet joke-rally behind L hard enough to have him contend again? If they try, will too many of those joke votes instead go to The Dog, allowing Ryu and MK to survive? It's the most important question of the season, because if that Dog fails us, L will be right back on a roll to the Championship- there's no stopping that train once it gets rolling. Talk about your insane first round matches! Pick: Ryu > L-Block Kratos from God of War thoughts: Hooooray, Diddy made the cut! ...boooooray, he's in a horrible position! Judging by past stats, Alucard vs Donkey Kong would be a pretty decent 1v1 tossup. Throw Diddy into the mix instead of DK, and you have to tip the scales to Alucard. Throw Falcon into the pot to ruin part of Diddy's newfound Brawl strength, and you've broken the scale altogether! And how is it that Kratos gets so lucky- he wouldn't even be a shoe in against Kirby or DK, but instead he gets to have them hurt each other and advances easily, and now he gets identical treatment here. Oh well, this should still be an okay match, if only to see if Falcon will be able to make a serious run at Diddy. Pick: Kratos > Alucard Kratos from ToS thoughts: Oh, THAT Kratos. Well then! This 4 pack just became a whole lot weaker, but also, a whole lot more interesting! Assuming Diddy is slightly weaker than DK, then judging by our last reliable numbers, all 4 of these characters are right in that 22% to 20% "barely above the fodder line" range. The difference, of course, is that Diddy won't be able to perform at that level because of Falcon sucking away some of his SSB support, while Falcon won't perform there because he's already shown that he'll collapse in the face of anything else Nintendo. With that in mind, Alucard becomes the clear favorite for the win, and as much as I hate to put faith in anything Tales (it has only burned me in the past), I've got to give the nod to Kratos A right now for that second spot. This pack has some awesome potential though; could even see a situation where Tales fails to hard that both Diddy AND Falcon are in the mix to advance! Pick: Alucard > Kratos A |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 8:10:24 PM | message detail |
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...the Spy, seriously? I wasn't expecting to see any TF2 characters make the cut, except for perhaps the Heavy. Assuming he made the cut as well, that's Gordon, GlaDOS, the Heavy, and the Spy- a heck of a strong showing for Valve, a company know for its gameplay, not its characters! That has me very excited to see what HL2 will be capable of this Winter. But getting back to the matter at hand. Really happy to see Arthas back for another go-round, and without Diablo keeping him chained down this time, who knows what he'll be capable of. Ike's a casual favorite in Brawl, true, but with Pikachu getting all the Pokemon love and a good bit of the SSB support as well, is he going to be hamstringed enough to let Arthas slip by? It seems very possible, but now I just recalled how badly Thrall bombed despite having no Blizzard LFF to excuse him. Yeah, Arthas should have a great shot, but I'm sticking with the Brawl Boost until further notice. Pick: Pikachu > Ike --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 8:25:10 PM | message detail |
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The re-writing continues. --- Round Two and following AGAIN My oh my. Everyone's well aware of what an unprecedented wildcard L-Block is, but seeing him in a fresh bracket like this really slaps you in the face with that realization. If he survives the Dog this match will be right back in his wheelhouse- killing legit characters with wave after wave of outside joke votes, allowing him to easily top Crono. On the other hand, what if the rally for him is only half-hearted? Crono and Ryu both do well in this format, and there will be no Kirby/DK-style LFF to allow free passage to the next round. Also, this match will be taking place on about October 22nd- what if that's the day SF4 hits the 360? Or what if Square releases a trailer for CT:DS the day before, showing footage of some of the new sidequests? I'm going to try to bank on some of the luster having died from the L-Block joke this time around... but as always with this guy, I'm forced to do so with zero confidence. Pick: Crono > Ryu Kratos from GoW thoughts: Seriously though, what's up with Kratos and befitting from SSB LFF? Here he goes AGAIN, turning what should have been a cool slugfest between himself and Pikachu into what ought to be a fairly easy victory thanks to Ike's presence. At least Pika has the Pokemon fan base to fall back on, which ought to help him hold up better than Kirby (who was also losing plenty of older Nintendo fans to that Tetris piece, IMO). On the plus side, Ike will get a good test of his strength in Alucard. Allie's an aging Contest star, true enough, but if Ike can best him despite Pika's presence I for one will be quite impressed. Pick: Kratos > Pikachu Kratos from ToS thoughts: Hm... I wasn't a huge fan of this matchup when I thought it involved Kratos the God of War, but I'm also not crazy about it with this OTHER Kratos involved. Alucard's one of the characters who I feel suffers the most from the increased vote totals/more casual voting trends since 2004, and so even with Pika behind held back by Ike, I still think the Pokemon should have what it takes to walk out of this one a winner. Unfortunately Allie ought to keep it close enough where there won't be any legit chance of Ike sneaking through to steal 2nd place- nor do I feel Kratos A has what it takes to make a serious run at that position. I GUESS it will be kind of neat for Ike if he's able to beat Kratos despite the Pika hindrance, but honestly I don't know how much we'd be able to take away from a result like that. Pick: Pikachu > Alucard |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 8:26:02 PM | message detail |
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Kratos from GoW thoughts: Huzzah, no more L-Block headaches! If he stays out of the picture here, it becomes a really awesome fatal three-way; one of those rare setups between solid characters with about equal strength, and no LFF to bias the result. Crono's clearly no longer at 2004 levels, but he shouldn't need to be to take first here. Second though? My goodness! Yes Ryu put up 57% on Kratos back in '06, but hes sold a couple million games since then and has clearly become a casual favorite- this will be an ideal opportunity to prove himself. And then there's Pikachu; pretty clearly the weak link in terms of 1v1 strength, but we've seen the kind of damage he can inflict in this format when he gets to rally all of Nintendo and Pokemon behind himself. I think I'm going to go with Ryu once again on the basis of SF4 being either released or nearly released and heavily hyped by the time this match happens, but I'm fully aware of how badly this could backfire on me! Pick: Crono > Ryu Kratos from ToS thoughts: Well dang, I liked this match more when I though it involved the good Kratos. It should still be a quality poll, but what I thought was a fatal three-way instead turns into a more standard fatal two-way. Crono should still be a decent distance out in front of this pack, and all the stuff I said about Pika being dangerous but Ryu possibly being able to counter with SF4 hype still holds. I'm still going to back Ryu in the hopes that the new SF comes through for me in the clutch, but yeah, I realize what a risk that is and its very possible I'll back out on that choice if no SF4 release date is announced yet before brackets close. Pick: Crono > Ryu --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| Super_Bowser | Posted 8/22/2008 8:43:13 PM | message detail |
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Tag --- "I know what you're thinking....all this power, AND looks too!" -Bowser |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 9:09:55 PM | message detail |
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Division Five OMG, what a hilarious 4 pack! Tails, who began his Contest career by choking away a match to Alucard and most recently choked against The Boss, Tidus, the FF lead who has plummeted from choking away matches to Ganon to choking away matches to Kirby to most recently choking away a match to Pikachu, and Donkey Kong, the undisputed King of the Chokes. Oh, and WCC, which is just hilarious no matter how you look at it! I'm leaning toward Tidus here, on the basis that Square is stronger in this format and Tails figures to hold back DK slightly moreso than he would anyone else. But if Tidus manages to lose a match where he was favored against a Nintendo mid-carder yet AGAIN, I'm pretty sure I'm going to laugh so hard that I rupture something, perhaps fatally. Pick: Tidus > DK Oh hey, Banjo gets a chance to redeem himself in a non-Nintendo SFF beatdown situation. Honestly wasn't expecting to see him return, but it's a welcome surprise. MM will of course take this one going away, but whoa nelly, what a train wreck for that 2 spot. Banjo probably has the best natural strength of the group, but his 360 game won't be out in time to save him and now Olimar can counter with Brawl support. I don't want to touch Nero with a 10 foot pole- there didn't seem to be overly much hype for DMC4 and I didn't hear much in the way of glowing reviews for the title once it was released, but since I have no idea who's going to come out on top between Banjo and Olimar, I'm going to go with the safe route for now and back Nero here. Pick: Mega Man > Nero Whoa, Dedede made the cut? And Pit too? I guess BRAWLFEAR was justified after all, at least as far as noms were concerned! A shame they get stuck in a position like this where they have to hold each other back. Now then, Zero scored an extremely convincing win over Ryu H back in '05, so even if he's held back somewhat by other Nintendo options, I don't think he should have trouble securing this win. I could see Dedede making a serious run at second here- we saw how well Meta Knight stood up to the new format, and Kirby probably would have done the same except for the 1-2 combo of DK and L-Block. The King is also a Brawl favorite, whereas everyone seems to hate playing against Pit and I don't see too many people picking him at all, really. But again, it's another case where in the face of two Nintendo options you're not sure on, best to bank on the unaffected third party who's in the same range. Pick: Zero > Ryu H Ugh, could we PLEASE give up on Wesker one of these years? People who get beat by Lloyd Irving do not need to be seen in a Contest again. People who get beat by Kefka, who scores over 70% on them, do not need to be seen in a Contest again. Sackboy is at least colorful fodder, but I'm especially pleased to see Vivi in such a good position. Was a real shame that he was forced out so early last time around, glad justice has been done and he'll have a real shot to prove himself this time around. Pick: Snake > Vivi --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| phattypython | Posted 8/22/2008 9:23:29 PM | message detail |
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Tag --- WoW Name: Siriusblack, Server: Wildhammer. Alliance. |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/22/2008 9:36:05 PM | message detail |
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Tag --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 8/22/2008 10:02:35 PM | message detail |
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Round Two and following Aww, this time around its not as much fun. Yeah, DK and Tidus get to go head to head again, but this time Mega Man is in play to most likely steal enough of DK's "thunder" to cost him any chance to advance. And if Olimar or Banjo get here instead of Nero, then DK's REALLY up the creek. On the other hand, if Tidus could manage to lose out here despite having a R3 berth practically gift-wrapped for him, it would probably be more funny than all his other failures combined. Pick: Mega Man > Tidus Hmm, this is kind of neat. We've already seen Zero stomp all over Ryu H, and we've also already seen the ninja fold under pressure from Snake, so he's doubly a non-factor. But this setup of essentially a fair 1v1 between Zero and Vivi is really cool. FF has done very well in this format, but so has Mega Man (at least outside of matches involving Link). I think I'm going to side with Zero for right now, but if this ends up being one of those matches where everyone hiveminds in favor of him I'm definitely going to switch over to Vivi in search of the better payoff, because honestly this feels like a coin flip to me despite what last year's stats say. Pick: Snake > Zero Bah, if Zero makes it this far the Div 5 final isn't quite as interesting. He'll hold MM back and allow Snake a more dominant win, but won't nearly affect him enough to allow Tidus (or DK) any kind of shot at sneaking into 2nd. I guess it could be somewhat interesting to see if Zero holding MM to a stunning mere 56% was just a fluke, though. If Vivi makes it here instead it... ok, so I guess it's still not a barn burner, but at least it would help us solve the mystery of how connected Final Fantasy and MGS really are, as in would Snake be LFFed a little and allow MM some time in 1st? Plus that Vivi/Tidus result from last year was so close that maybe it could go the other way in a rematch. Pick: Snake > Mega Man --- Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly. |
| chocoboslayer | Posted 8/22/2008 10:24:44 PM | message detail |
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le tag --- PotD's OFFICIAL King of Games™! The Choco. The Cream of Yuna Fanboyism. |
