Yay!!! I'm going to go through each match and analyze who will win and why. Of course, if I get any wrong, I'll have analyzed any matches involving the winner wrong too, but I'm not going to analyze every possible match. It begins... in a little while. Probably a half an hour. I'm starving.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 1: (1) Mario vs (8) Joanna Dark

Projected winner: Mario

This match isn't in question. No one is going to choose Joanna Dark unless they are a 0 bracket or a favorites bracket. However, this match is the first chance we get to see if Mario has gained any strength. I am personally thinking that Mario, Luigi, Yoshi, and Bowser will have undergone a noticable increase in strength this contest (well, maybe not Bowser since he already has appeared in the villains contest). The reason for this is none other than the DS. The system sold at a record-setting pace in Europe, went through 2,000,000 units in under one month when combining Japan and America, and has been maintaining an incredible pace. For a while, Mario 64 DS was the only game worth spending money on for the system, and now Nitendo has a package deal where you get Mario 64 DS for free with the system.

So yeah, Mario wins by a sizable amount, and speculation of a strength boost starts up.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 2: (4) Ness vs (5) Carl Johnson

Projected winner: Carl Johnson

In all reality, I don't think this match is very hard, but some people will be swayed by Ness' "surprise" performance last year, and a few may even think GameFAQs is racist. Be that as it may, Tommy Vercetti is currently ranked a good deal higher than Ness. When you take that and add the fact that not only is CJ from a more popular, better, newer game than Vercetti, but he is also a better character, and it shouldn't be that hard to imagine him being at least as strong as his italian counterpart. And for what it's worth, Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas recently came out on XBox.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I'll give this teh tag, though I have GameFOX. >_>
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VOTE*~*~Lloyd Irving, Diablo, Vincent Valentine and Alucard in the Sc2k5!~*~*

Match 3: (3) Zero vs (6) Ryu Hayabusa

Projected winner: Zero

This... match doesn't really need any analysis. Zero is from the popular MMX series, he's starred in a few games. Ryu Hayabusa is a cool ninja who isn't that strong. Zero wins, I'm not going to go more in depth on this one.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 4: (2) Lloyd Irving vs (7) Albert Wesker

Projected winner: Lloyd

This is another match that isn't very hard to figure out. In fact, this whole division is a cake walk for the most part. I don't trust the Villain Contest's results THAT much, but Wesker performed worse than Mithos. Lloyd, the main character of his game, just has to be stronger than the game's villain. Since that is typically what happens, I wouldn't say this match should be in question.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Reading.

~*The Metal Gear Master*~
---<3---
The Author of Metal Gear Solid: Dawn of the Concealed
The CAC5 Website ~~~ www.freewebs.com/createacharacter

*Is also reading. Waits for the harder match ups*
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
*Is now in need of a sig

Carl Johnso over NESS? I can't see a GTA character beating a SNES RPG character. Plus Ness has SSB going for him.
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Now Playing: Kingdom Hearts: CoM, Wario Ware Twisted, Fire Emblem: TSS, Tales of Symphonia

Match 5: (1) Samus Aran vs (8) Yuri

Projected winner: Samus

Another easy one. No real analysis is needed. Metroid Prime Hunters Demo was packed with DS, Metroid Prime 2 came out the end of last year. Samus, by a lot, a small boost speculated.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Don't believe it? Look at Tommy's performance in the previous contests...

*gets rolled over by a katamari*
---
See my quote to know the 3 best things about the SC2k5 bracket!
SpC2k5 Score: 75/80

Carl Johnso over NESS? I can't see a GTA character beating a SNES RPG character. Plus Ness has SSB going for him.

Vercetti would beat Ness quite handily. Unless you think the XStats could be off by almost 5% without SFF interference.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

tag
---
I had everythign set up right but when I fell off the chair I just hung there by my neck... I ended up getting bored - DiabloTerrorGF

Match 6: (4) Riku vs (5) Frog

Projected winner: Frog

Wow, I hadn't realized how predictable the beginning of the first round really is... I don't trust Frog's performance from last year, as I think that strings of three close matches in a row are not indicative of the three characters performing the same way against other characters. However, that won't matter for this bracket, at least in the case of Frog and Master Chief. Frog still ranks above Sora, and even if he would underperform against Link by a full 5%, Riku would STILL have to be about as strong as Sora to have a shot at winning. Frog wins.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 7: (3) Ganondorf vs (6) Yuna

Projected winner: Ganondorf

Well, I will say right now that I think this match will be closer than expected, but still a pretty sizable blow out. I don't trust Ganondorf's ranking, but I'm not really sure if he's weaker or stronger than it appears. He performed well in the Villain contest, so I'll just trust it for now. Besides, Yuna is no Tidus. Ganondorf wins.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

tag
---
The Gord is my god!

Match 8: (2) Auron vs (7) Big Boss

Projected winner: Auron

If Big Boss had been called Naked Snake, this match would be hell to predict. As it is, he won't bear too much resemblance to Solid, since Ceej will be using his, well, Big Boss picture. I'd say Auron wins pretty easily. And thus ends another easy first round of a division.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

And for what it's worth, Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas recently came out on XBox.

I believe it got released on pc at the same time as well. Either way three of the top four faqs on gamefaqs right now are gta:sa on different platforms. That's pretty hard to ignore, but if people still want to throw away their bracket and pick ness, I guess I shouldn't be trying to stop them.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=20119594

Maybe to save time you shouldn't give reasons for the obvious blow-outs.
---
Now Playing: Kingdom Hearts: CoM, Wario Ware Twisted, Fire Emblem: TSS, Tales of Symphonia

tag
---
I changed my sig

tagged
---
Today's subliminal thought is:

Maybe to save time you shouldn't give reasons for the obvious blow-outs.

Eh, I want it to be complete.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

tag
---
Note to Self: I OWN YOU

Tag.
---
Cool tracks: Remember Shakti - 5 in the morning, 6 in the afternoon / Van Halen - Running with the devil

Match 9: (1) Solid Snake vs (8) Manny Calavera

Projected winner: Solid Snake

Yeah... I just started Grim Fandango, and Manny Calavera is awesome but... yeeeeah...
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Oh hay, tag.
---
I'm charming, but I dip into the Prozac now and then.
I did pretty good in the guru challenge but yoblazer did slightly better.

*tag*

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
YoBlazer(33) & Robotnik pwned my (Ro)butt in Sp2k5

Match 10: (4) Vivi vs (5) Zelda

Projected winner: Zelda

Okay, this match is marginally difficult, and it will definitely be the first match that is really in question the whole contest. Last year, Vivi's XStat value was about 27% on 2003 Link. The year before, Zelda ranked about 30% on 2003 Link. So this match has the makings of greatness... in theory. In reality, Zelda should be the obvious pick from the get go. The main reason, in my mind anyway, that Link gained from 2003 to 2004 was the packaging of The Legend of Zelda: Collector's Edition with every Gamecube for a promotional period. Now, the only real question about Zelda losing the match in the first place is whether or not she has dropped in the past two years. Well, all signs definitely point to her gaining if anything, so what looks like an interesting match on paper, comes out to be another pretty easy choice.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

tag
---
My wang>all

Match 11: (3) Kratos vs (6) Alucard

Projected winner: Alucard

Now, this is a mildly clever match, though it might just be me. The reason I find this match at all difficult is that, as I said before, I don't trust Ganondorf's position. Therefore, I think Alucard may be a bit weaker than the XStats suggest. Unfortunately, this match isn't really hard once you realize that Alucard currently ranks right under Bowser. Even with a little drop, he'd be right around Dante. Devil May Cry and God of War are pretty similar games, aside from setting, and I would take Dante over Kratos without a second though. So yeah, Kratos loses.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 12: (2) Sora vs (7) Agent 47

Projected winner: Sora

Yeah, Neo-Tanner loses.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

And I'll continue this a little later. I've got to go now.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

tag
---
You have to understand, Alex. Girls are supposed to prevent boys from having fun. It's just their nature. -Ramus(lunar)

Great job, so far. :-)
---
PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (189 Signs!)

tag
---
I had everythign set up right but when I fell off the chair I just hung there by my neck... I ended up getting bored - DiabloTerrorGF

Last year, Vivi's XStat value was about 27% on 2003 Link.

For the record: Vivi faced Sephiroth. Only performance we have on Vivi is his DK performance, a 'bout 11,000+ win.

So, to pull up 2003 DK now...

- Almost 30,000 more on Vyse.
- Barely lost to Tommy.
- Tommy lost by about 12,000 to Ryu.

That's 2003. So take Vivi's placement at a whim as he very well can be higher (and most likely, is higher).

---
Treeplane: "SOMEONE GET THIS PIRATE OFF ME! I HAVE TO GO LOVE MARIO! I NEED IT!" - PoG's Board 8 fic.

For the record: Vivi faced Sephiroth. Only performance we have on Vivi is his DK performance, a 'bout 11,000+ win.

So, to pull up 2003 DK now...

- Almost 30,000 more on Vyse.
- Barely lost to Tommy.
- Tommy lost by about 12,000 to Ryu.

That's 2003. So take Vivi's placement at a whim as he very well can be higher (and most likely, is higher).

Even so, I doubt it would increase him by more that 2% or so.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Can't wait for the real tough matches! Good job so far, I'll be reading the rest of these when you do them.
---
"Extinguish your desire and the fire will be cool. Clear your mind and you will feel no pain."- Master Poi from Golden Sun

tag

Oh. Just noticed something else: Zelda lost to Tommy V. by over 9000.

Insert that with the rest of the info. Assuming you still go Zelda > Vivi, then you do need to throw a few things away...

---
Treeplane: "SOMEONE GET THIS PIRATE OFF ME! I HAVE TO GO LOVE MARIO! I NEED IT!" - PoG's Board 8 fic.

As far as I know, Zelda was stronger then Vercetti in 2k3.

---
As much as I want to put something original about the Guru Contest here, I can't, because Yoblazer owned me way too hard.

Zelda didin't lose to Tommy V what are you talking about? The only contest shes been in was 2k3 where she lost to Megaman.

Match 13: (1) Kirby vs (8) Cecil

Projected winner: Kirby

This match is sort of, kind of debatable, but not really. Kirby was already a pretty impressive competitor. Add in the fact that Kirby Canvas Curse is currently the best game on DS, and is actually being advertised, with a funny commercial to boot, and I see a Kirby boost if anything. Besides, you'd have to believe Cecil is stronger than Tidus to believe he can win... That's... kind of stretching it. So, Kirby wins in a pretty big blow out.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 14: (4) Tidus vs (5) King of all Cosmos

Projected winner: Tidus

King of all Cosmos may be popular here, but that is the extent of his popularity. The only thing interesting about this match will be to see if Tidus flops or performs well, since the King will undoubtedly be fodder.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 15: (3) Bowser vs (6) Chun Li

Projected winner: Bowser

For one thing, based on Bowsers 2K3 numbers, he's just about equal to Ryu (he was SFFed in 2K4). Unless you believe that Chun Li is almost exactly equal to Ryu, there is no reason to think she can win. Personally, I think she might be about the same strength as Ken. This match will serve as a chance to see if Bowser's performance in the Spring was because the contest was called a Villain contest, or if Mario 64 DS gave a sizable boost, as I suspect.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

tag
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

Match 16: (2) Ryu vs (7) Rikku

Projected winner: Ryu

Do you think that Rikku is a fair amount stronger than Tidus? Heck, do you think she's equal to Tidus? I don't, that's for sure. I think that she is probably about the same as Yuna, and this match will serve as nothing more than an oppurtunity to predict Ryu vs Bowser more accurately.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Tidus has become quite the measuring stick for relative popularity.

I'm enjoying this topic; keeping 'em coming, MM.
---
There's always someone better.

tag

---
FFVI says "A Love Between Human and Esper".

Tag. Nice job
---
[=[_]=] Nintendo DS
[+[_]::] See double while sober!

Match 17: (1) Master Chief vs (8) Cats

Projected winner: Master Chief

First of all, Cats is not in all caps, everything in the Zero Wing opening is! The instruction manual has it typed as above. Moving right along, Cats did fairly well in the Spring Contest. But he didn't gain enough to beat Master Chief, and that's that. This match will serve to show if Halo 2 has had any effect on the Master Chief of course, and that's fine with me. I predict it will have a fairly noticable effect, but not THAT much. I'm not sure, but the bungie site link MAY have given him a percent or two extra against Frog, so the legitimate Halo 2 boost could appear to be less effective than it really is.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Match 18: (4) Donkey Kong vs (5) Sam Fisher

Projected winner: Donkey Kong

Yeah, Sam Fisher is really, really weak... And the winner here gets wrecked by Master Chief, so the best this can do is show if Vivi actually DID get SFFed, which I don't think he did. But this still won't be too conclusive, since Sam Fisher had a new game come out since last contest, so I actually expect Donkey Kong to underperform... But then again, last time Sam got a game out, he didn't get stronger. Yeah, this match is pretty worthless.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 19: (3) Kefka vs (6) Tommy Vercetti

Projected winner: Kefka

This match is a *****. If you think this match is easy to predict, you are wrong. First we have Kefka. Kefka surprised against Knuckles last year, and brutally beat Wesker in the Spring contest, partly due to his extremely bad ass picture (or so it is speculated). However, Kefka's strength is still a bit of a grab bag of possibilities. See, Kefka's chain of extrapolation last summer eventually lead to being through Mega Man. The problem here is of course, we can't be sure of how Mega Man was SUPPOSED to perform in that match. However, this problem is somewhat alleviated by the fact that, you guessed it, Tommy Vercetti ALSO gets extrapolated through Mega Man. Vercetti also goes through Zero, who may or may not have suffered SFF from Mega Man, which would make Vercetti stronger.

My school of though pretty much disregards the possibility of Zero being SFFed because he performed excellently... I also think that Vercetti MAY drop in strength a bit, due to Vice City being completely overshadowed by San Andreas in every respect. I personally think that Vercetti was only strong because GTA fans needed SOMEONE to cling to. Therefore, I'm banking on Vercetti simply being weaker than he was, and I also kind of hope that Ceej realizes Kefka needs a better pic than the crap he's gotten everywhere but the Villain Contest. If Kefka gets the angel picture again, I don't think the match will be a problem anymore. However, this match is too speculative to accurately call one way or the other for sure, so I'm taking a leap of faith.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

First of all, Cats is not in all caps, everything in the Zero Wing opening is!

This topic just lost a lot of credibility.
---
..| ( ¯”~¯”, .| .” _„„--~~--, . . . .|::::,-“ )LIGHTNING BLA- SUPER LIGHTNING BLADE!
../ . . . .º . ./ . ( . . ¯o¯¯ . . . . .|::,/ ./

Match 20: (2) Crono vs (7) Zidane

Projected winner: Crono

Another match that isn't in question. This will just get to show us where Zidane stands in relation to Vivi.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 21: (1) Dante vs (8) Terra

Projected winner: Dante

This is actually a somewhat tricky match in disguise as an obvious blowout. IF Terra is substantially stronger than Kefka, she could possibly beat Dante, especially considering what I mentioned earlier about the uncertainty of Kefka's position. If Devil May Cry 3 hadn't come out this year and Vergil hadn't performed pretty well in the Spring, I'd be having a hard time with this match, but as it is, I think Dante will take it pretty easily. It'll be interesting to see how Terra is in relation to Kefka though.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

*tags*

Nice job.
---
Analysing humour is like analysing a frog: you can do it, but the frog tends to die in the process.

tag, with you 100% so far (although round 1 isn't quite as hard as later rounds obviously)
---
I like long walks. Especially when they're taken by people who annoy me.

Match 22: (4) Sarah Kerrigan vs (5) Vincent Valentine

Projected winner: Vincent

Personally, I really hope Kerrigan wins this match. I would LOVE if the Starcraft sites all linked here and voted for Kerrigan like they did for Starcraft. However, I know the community. They like Starcraft for the multiplayer. Most of them don't care about the single player very much at all. Don't get me wrong, some of them certainly do, and the sites will undoubtedly link here. However, even in the Spring Contest last year, some of the people referred here from Starcraft sites said they preferred SSBM and voted for it, and a LOT said that if Starcraft did beat SSBM, they wouldn't vote it over FF7. My point is, I don't think anyone linking here will do very much, as FF7 is even pretty popular among the Starcraft community, and I don't think Kerrigan OR Vincent will live up to expectations.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 23: (3) Magus vs (6) Knuckles the Echidna

Projected wnner: Magus

Well... I think Magus is weaker than his position suggests but... he'd have to be a hell of a lot weaker, and Mega Man would have had to undergone a LOT more SFF than we thought in order for Knuckles to win this.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Kerrigan is going to get destroyed by Vincent.

I'm with you for all except Tommy/Kefka.
Ceej doesn't usualy use good pics in the first matchs so Kefka will most likely get screwed over and the GTA fans are still very strong.
---
Jesus: For my next miracle, I will turn water... into FUNK.

Kerrigan is going to get destroyed by Vincent.

I am not dismissing the idea, but I don't think she will be.

I'm with you for all except Tommy/Kefka.
Ceej doesn't usualy use good pics in the first matchs so Kefka will most likely get screwed over and the GTA fans are still very strong.

Well, I said why I think Vercetti will drop.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 24: (2) Squall Leonhart vs (7) Geno

Projected winner: Squall

Wow, such a toughie.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I changed one of my two different choices due to this topic, but I just can't not choose Kerrigan after all those Blizzard upsets.

Which one did you change?
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Alucard of Kratos

*over

Ah, cool.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I agree with everything but one so far. Kratos will surprise over Alucard.
---
Currently Playing: Sticky Balls, Hello Kitty Bubblegum Girlfriends, Big Rigs, Color a Dinosaur, Sweet Cookie Pie, Rap Quest, Rocket Power: Gettin' Air

From: Abomstarrunner | Posted: 6/29/2005 9:38:25 PM | Message Detail
I agree with everything but one so far. Tommy Vercetti will surprise over Kefka.

Fixed.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

I agree with everything except Zelda > Vivi. Vivi got SFF'd by Sephy. Like 90% of the tough matches in this contest, it all comes down to Square vs. Nintendo
---
"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Is cavedog0, Go, Pack, Go!

I agree with everything but one so far. Kratos will surprise over Alucard.

It's not impossible. But to put it in better perspective, I wouldn't put Kratos over Auron. You'd have to believe Alucard is a pretty good deal weaker than the stats say in order to put Auron > Kratos> Alucard
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I agree with everything except Zelda > Vivi. Vivi got SFF'd by Sephy. Like 90% of the tough matches in this contest, it all comes down to Square vs. Nintendo


I really am not sold on the whole idea of Vivi getting SFFed. It's possible, but it can't be very significant. Besides, even if you go so far as to say he is 3% stronger than the stats say, Zelda in 2K3 is STILL equal to him. And I think Zelda gained.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I think Alucard will drop a lot in popularity this year. Don't get me wrong, the odds are against me, but I think it will be close, so since it's only one point I have Kratos for the win.
---
Currently Playing: Sticky Balls, Hello Kitty Bubblegum Girlfriends, Big Rigs, Color a Dinosaur, Sweet Cookie Pie, Rap Quest, Rocket Power: Gettin' Air

I think Alucard will drop a lot in popularity this year. Don't get me wrong, the odds are against me, but I think it will be close, so since it's only one point I have Kratos for the win.

That's perfectly acceptable.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

So far, I agree 100%.
---
we need more nintendo is doomed topics in my onion-- black calx, Next-Gen Gaming
alpha door WINS!

With you all the way, except I put T.V. over Kefka. Though I like Kefka way more...

Keep 'em comin', MM.
---
Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.

Tag
---
Not changing this sig until the Winnipeg Blue Bombers win the grey cup. Started Aug. 16/04

tag. And yes, the GTA fans are rabid. I think the GTA:SA fans will have some say so in the Kefka Vs. T.V. match.
---
Vote~~Lloyd Irving, Crono, Vincent Valentine, and Auron in the Sc2k5!~~ Also Leon S. Kennedy

You have to realize, Vice City is widely hailed as the weak link in the recent GTA games. I think Vercetti was just popular because they NEEDED someone to support. My theory is that they jumped to CJ now. But it's all speculation. We'll see.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

And I'm done for tonight.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I want analysises!
---
we need more nintendo is doomed topics in my onion-- black calx, Next-Gen Gaming
alpha door WINS!

Kefka screws up too often for Vercetti not to beat him.

---
Girls throw themselves at him like prostitutes left and right, yet the only girl Cloud wants or cares about throughout the entire game is Sephiroth.- Ulti

i really want to see your Gordie vs Leon match prediction.
although GFNW, im starting to have doubts whether that will carry on in this tournament. I'd say hes got a good chance over Leon.
---
Don't listen to the Squallunatics and the Vincentrolls, Magus is where it's at.
- Snowflake

---
*is chubtoad*
Early to bed, early to rise, gives a man a small ***** size

Tag
---
"Jesus loves me, he loves me a bunch, because he always puts Skippy in my lunch." Peter Griffin singing to kids at church.

Match 25: (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs (8) Jin Kazama

Projected winner: Sonic

Blah blah, easy match, blah blah, won't even show us if Sonic's strength has changed.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Only one I disagree with so far is Kefka/Vercetti. Keep up the good work!

*hidden tag*
---
"I wish my parents loved me enough to purchase me nutritional supplements composed entirely of super fighting robots." - Phoenix Flattener

100% so far.
---
My biggest predictions: Mario over Samus, Alucard over Sora, Magus over Dante.

Match 26: (4) Kratos Aurion vs (5) Diablo

Projected winner: Diablo

This is a very cool match. Kratos and Diablo, I would estimate, are about the same in strength. During the Spring Contest, we all saw Diablo's ability to pretty much own the day vote and carry it straight through to the night. Mithos, on the other hand, performed at about the same level as Sin and Dr. Robotnik. Logically, this would mean that Kratos could perform anywhere from Knuckles to Auron, since the three are all the badass sidekicks of the series. After a few quick calculations, Diablo's extrapolated standing (against Link) falls directly under Knuckles. I'm talking within .5 percent.

Now, on the one hand, Diablo didn't get the benefit of a link to Gamefaqs on his last match, which could lower his ranking by a bit. So lets say he falls a little higher than Dante. On the other hand, Kratos could stil logically be stronger than that. However, I don't think that these relationships will be set in stone, and the proportions are different for each series. So in reality, I think Kratos will fall a good bit under Knuckles, since it is a pretty close call ANYWAY. That and the combination of summer bringing more people from any fansites, and I think Diablo will squeak by. But really, it's a damn close match, and a great setup by Ceej.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I've got the same as you so far, MasterMage. There are only two hard first-round matches, though...
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

I've got the same as you so far, MasterMage. There are only two hard first-round matches, though...

Yeah, I know. It's a pretty rare contest in that the first round isn't the hardest. But are more than two hardish first-round matches.

Luigi vs KOS-MOS could be, Vivi vs Zelda is being called hard, Kefka vs Vercetti is pretty hard, and Kerrigan vs Vincent is a bit harder than people are giving it credit for, and Diablo vs Kratos is hard.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Match 27: (3) Tifa Lockheart vs (6) Vyse

Projected winner: Tifa

Easy match, I think Tifa will end up looking weaker than people expect.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

This will just get to show us where Zidane stands in relation to Vivi.

Meh, it won't even do that since Crono's gonna SFF.

*still bitter about Zidane's bracket placement*
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Luigi vs KOS-MOS could be

You'll be hard-pressed to find a more fervent Xenosaga fan than me, but KOS-MOS is toast, no contest, against such a well-known character.

Vivi vs Zelda is being called hard

That's hard match #1, yeah.

Kefka vs Vercetti is pretty hard

Hard match #2

and Kerrigan vs Vincent is a bit harder than people are giving it credit for

Kerrigan doesn't have a hope in hell. This match makes me cry. Vincent is a fairly popular FFVII character, and that = instant lose for a PC femme.

and Diablo vs Kratos is hard

Naaah, Diablo will take it easily. I didn't even give this match a second thought.
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

Match 28: (2) Luigi vs (7) KOS-MOS

Projected winner: Luigi

This is another match that seems like it could be hard, and it is a little bit. Luigi and KOS-MOS are pretty much even in the XStats. However, as mentioned earlier, I think Luigi will feel some boost from Super Mario 64 DS, especially since a HUGE complaint with the original was that Luigi wasn't in it. KOS-MOS on the other hand, will ALSO receive a little boost, as she had a new game this year too. However, I think her boost will be smaller, especially by the time this match rolls around, seeing as Mario 64 DS is now packaged with DS. So, I think Luigi will perform better than people expect, but appear weaker than he is since KOS-MOS should be somewhat stronger also.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Your Riku vs Frog is making me wonder who to go with >_>
---
Animal Crossing: ACC #530
NeoPets: firestorm1776 Maple Story: Firestorm - Level 73 Assassin - GLOBAL

Match 29: (1) Mega Man vs (8) Conker

Projected winner: Mega Man

Easy match, I just hope Mega Man underperforms, even though it wouldn't really make sense.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

KOS-MOS won't get any more of a boost from Xenosaga Ep. 2 than Dante got from Devil May Cry 2.
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

Oh, and she's not even as hot in Ep. 2...
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

Match 30: (4) Gordon Freeman vs (5) Leon Kennedy

Projected winner: Leon Kennedy

I'm actually really, really surprised that people are trying to debate this match at all. Leon is pretty much a lock here folks. Resident Evil 4 came out this year. Yes, Leon is the star from the top contendor for Game of the Year. And it's his SECOND appearance in Resident Evil to boot. Gordon Freeman was in Half Life 2, but we saw how much the first Half Life helped him... Both are excellent games, and both have silent protaganists. Leon wins... And he wins by a lot.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

And let us not forget GFNW, the most powerful argument of all.
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

KOS-MOS won't get any more of a boost from Xenosaga Ep. 2 than Dante got from Devil May Cry 2.

I was thinking that, but I'm sure the game had to garner a few new fans. But yeah, the boost will be almost negligible.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 31: (3) Yoshi vs (6) Laharl

Projected winner: Yoshi

Easy match, just another oppurtunity for me to see if Mario 64 DS really has any effect.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I was thinking that, but I'm sure the game had to garner a few new fans.

I'd be surprised if it was more than 12, and if even 2 of those came to GameFAQs. Ep. 2, as a game, sucked, and to make matters worse, KOS-MOS isn't even as attractive in it.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

And let us not forget GFNW, the most powerful argument of all.

*slaps forehead*

Bah, that's like, a given. :P
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I'd be surprised if it was more than 12, and if even 2 of those came to GameFAQs. Ep. 2, as a game, sucked, and to make matters worse, KOS-MOS isn't even as attractive in it.

I'll take your word for it. I've never played either.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 32: (2) Revolver Ocelot vs (7) Pac Man

Projected winner: Revolver Ocelot

Going by the Spring Contest, Ocelot ranks right around... Luigi. Which... is actually surprising. But yeah, Ocelot wins. And thus ends the easiest round of this contest.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

No, no, the easiest round is the Breakfast of Champions.
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

Poor Pacman.
---
My biggest predictions: Mario over Samus, Alucard over Sora, Magus over Dante.

Match 33: (1) Mario vs (5) Carl Johnson

Projected winner: Mario

Duh.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

No, no, the easiest round is the Breakfast of Champions.

Heh, well that's by default, it only has 3 matches. :P
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Heh, well that's by default, it only has 3 matches. :P

All of which are foregone conclusions...
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!

Match 34: (3) Zero vs (2) Lloyd Irving

Projected winner: Zero

I really, really doubt Lloyd could give Snake a run for his money. He'd have to in order to stand any chance at Zero.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

All of which are foregone conclusions...

Who do you have for Link vs Cloud?
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I think Luigi will feel some boost from Super Mario 64 DS, especially since a HUGE complaint with the original was that Luigi wasn't in it.

Heh, I remember that. Even as recent as 2003, nobody'd shut up about it and they thought "Maybe he's just really well hidden". The original's been hacked to all hell. There's no Luigi. Luckily, by the time SM64DS came out, they all shut up.
---
If you can't beat 'em, eat 'em...
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!

Match 35: (1) Samus vs (5) Frog

Projected winner: Samus

Another brain buster...
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I'm curious about Dante vs Vincent...I really don't know how to compare them.
---
Cats land on their feet. Toast lands peanut butter side down. A cat with toast strapped to its back will hover above the ground in a state of quantum indecision

Match 36: (3) Ganondorf vs (2) Auron

Projected winner: Ganondorf

Earlier in the topic, I said I don't trust Ganondorf's ranking, but I just realized that I actually do, seeing as Link got a boost from Collector's Edition. I think Ganondorf is probably about where the stats say he stands, if not a bit stronger. Auron on the other hand, is a good deal below him anyway. I think the people going for this upset are making a bad decision.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 37: (1) Solid Snake vs (5) Zelda

Projected winner: Solid Snake

I'm going to be honest here. If MGS 3 hadn't come out last winter, I'd be choosing Zelda for the upset here. As I said, I think she will be stronger than her 2K3 vaklue suggests, and I think she could be stronger than Snake's 2K4 value. However, THAT isn't even certain, and I think Snake probably gained a little bit from looking and sounding exactly like Naked Snake, so I have to stick by him.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Zelda will win!!!
---
Trainer: Clinkeroth, do mega fanboy attack!
Clinkeroth: CLINKEROTH! ~Pibb of Truth

Match 38: (6) Alucard vs (2) Sora

Projected winner: Alucard

I literally just changed this match to Alucard. It still says Sora in my bracket. Why? Because as I said above, I think Ganondorf might a bit stronger than his stats suggest, despite my feelings on Tidus and Magus. This brings Alucard up in strength, instead of down like I was previously thinking. Sora has no reason to gain or lose (unless you think hype is a factor), Alucard has no reason to gain or lose. I've gotta stick with Alucard.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I think KH2 hype will boost Sora a bit for sure. Plus he has COM out for GBA as well since last contest.

I think KH2 hype will boost Sora a bit for sure. Plus he has COM out for GBA as well since last contest.

From what I've heard, Chain of Memories isn't a game that anyone who doesn't already like KH will like. And for some reason, I doubt Alucard and Sora have a very big overlap in fanbase, if any. And I don't buy into hype doing anything.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

So far you will be perfect :D
---
My biggest predictions: Mario over Samus, Alucard over Sora, Magus over Dante.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

So far, I have all of the same picks as you, with the exception of the match between Auron and Ganondorf Dragmire. I happen to have Auron winning that match, going for an upset pick. I have never been to trustworthy of Ganondorf Dragmire's statistics, either. Conversely, I have always had some bizzare faith in Auron. I think he can be a good deal stronger than Tidus, as Auron is not only the most well-liked character from Final Fantasy X, but he does not carry the hate that Tidus inevitably does. While spite votes rarely dictate as much as a percentage, that percentage can make a difference.

Tidus nearly beat Ganondorf Dragmire, to boot. Since the Summer Contest 2003, the Zelda crew has probably increased a bit, but I don't think it is that big of an increase, as it would all revolve around hype. Besides, one could completely negate the Zelda hypse by reminding everyone that Auron is going to be seen in Kingdom Hearts 2, not so much unlike the badass-ness that we saw with Cloud and Sephiroth in Kingdom Hearts. And, we all know that had a huge benefit on them.

So, basically, I feel Auron has a legitimate shot in this match, so I went for it.

~*The Metal Gear Master*~
---<3---
The Author of Metal Gear Solid: Dawn of the Concealed
The CAC5 Website ~~~ www.freewebs.com/createacharacter

Since the Summer Contest 2003, the Zelda crew has probably increased a bit, but I don't think it is that big of an increase, as it would all revolve around hype. Besides, one could completely negate the Zelda hypse by reminding everyone that Auron is going to be seen in Kingdom Hearts 2, not so much unlike the badass-ness that we saw with Cloud and Sephiroth in Kingdom Hearts.

If KH2 was out already, I'd be right there with you. Maybe. But the thing is, I don't buy hype doing much of anything, with the exception of Master Chief, who used hype as a tool to she actual hatred. The Zelda crew boost isn't revolving around hype at all, it's around the 1.5-2 million Gamecubes that sold with Zelda Collector's Edition packed in.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 39: (1) Kirby vs (4) Tidus

Projected winner: Kirby

This pick is unpopular. That's understandable. In most people's minds, Final Fantasy is always an advantage. However, I don't trust Tidus' value in the first place. I think he's weaker than indicated. I mean, he really got wrecked last contest... Some people actually think he is stronger than his value says, but at best I'd say he's equal. Moving to Kirby, all the puff ball needs is a small boost to clinch this match. Well, as you may or may not be aware, Kirby Canvas Curse recently came out on DS. It is also hailed as the greatest game on the system by a long shot. By the time this match happens, the game will have been out for long enough to really sink in, and I think it will give Kirby a boost. Heck, I haven't even played it, and the commercial alone has gotten me to finally like Kirby (I used to hate him). Now, I may be putting too much stock in the DS' power but... well, it has sold incredibly (the system I mean), so being the best game out in America has to help a LITTLE. Therefore, I'm not really even that worried about this one.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I stiil think Kratos (GOW) can beat alufcard
---
My wang>all

Match 40: (3) Bowser vs (2) Ryu

Projected winner: Bowser

If Street Fighter Anniversary Collection ends up having an actual effect on Ryu's strength, I'm in trouble. However, I doubt it actually will, as it seems like a game that only Street Fighter fans would buy very much anyway. As I've said earlier, I think Bowser will be boosted from Mario 64 DS, and I don't know if he was in the new Paper Mario, but if so, that should help too. And if the Spring contest has any sort of validity, Bowser did get stronger. So what seems like a pretty difficult match, in my mind at least, comes down to if SFAC has any effect. If not, Bowser will surprise by winning with a lot more percent than he should have based on 2K4 statistics. If it does help Ryu, I still think Bowser could win.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I stiil think Kratos (GOW) can beat alufcard

In light of my recent revelation, that seems all the more unlikely.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I think the people going for this upset are making a bad decision.

Auron over Ganon is actually one of the better upset picks you can take. That match isn't a lock for either one.

---
“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

In light of my recent revelation, that seems all the more unlikely.
But the last time Alucard had a game out was 8 years ago and even though he is the most popular CV character, he won't gain any power and will most likely have lost some.

From: Adept_Of_Aiur | #135
I don't know if he was in the new Paper Mario, but if so, that should help too.

He's awesome in the new Paper Mario. I actually think that's what gave him so much strength in the Spring.


---
Penguins > All
Second only to Kaxon in the Sp2k5 First Vote Championship

the bowser parts in PM TTYD were awesome, it was fun playing Super Mario Bros. Levels with him
---
My wang>all

*Tag*. Good job, keep it up.

TAG

Nice read. Keep it coming.
---
Rock Man, you will always be a champ in my eyes. One day you will win.

tag
---
My name is Richard but they call me Big Dick.

Auron over Ganon is actually one of the better upset picks you can take. That match isn't a lock for either one.

I really, really doubt Auron has even a remote shot.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Bowser was in PM2 and I think his performance in that game made Mario fans like him more and made other people like Bowser. After playing that game he definately moved up on my "Favorite Character List".

Also, about the Kingdom Hearts: CoM not being liked by people who haven't played Kingdom Hearts before, I like KH: CoM and I've never played KH1.

Anyway so far I agree with most of your picks (except Vincent beating Kerrigan, Zero beating Lloyd, and Alucard beating Sora) and you've helped me fix my bracket a little (Originally I had Ness over CJ, and Kratos GoW beating Alucard and Sora). Good job, keep up the good work, and happy Leaf Erickson day.
---
Now Playing: Kingdom Hearts: CoM, Wario Ware Twisted, Fire Emblem: TSS, Tales of Symphonia

I really, really doubt Auron has even a remote shot.

Once adjustments are taken into consideration, Ganon ends up winning with roughly 52%, I believe. That's not a remote shot?

---
“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

I believe A HUGE UPSET will happen this year...

Something we all won't expect... I think Gannondorf not only will go all the way, but perhaps a major video game character may actually be defeated.
---
Alt of Razorwolf66 Join Metroid wars today!
http://s11.invisionfree.com/Metroid_Wars_Reborn/index.php?act=idx new war starts soon!

I believe A HUGE UPSET will happen this year...

*cough*LloydIrvingoverZero*cough*

Trust me, I was able to predict the spring's major upset (Master Hand over Kuja) without trying to get a zero bracket!
---
Now Playing: Kingdom Hearts: CoM, Wario Ware Twisted, Fire Emblem: TSS, Tales of Symphonia

XD...

I actually did pick Zero, but it would be damn funny to see Lloyd win.
---
Alt of Razorwolf66 Join Metroid wars today!
http://s11.invisionfree.com/Metroid_Wars_Reborn/index.php?act=idx new war starts soon!

Trust me, I was able to predict the spring's major upset (Master Hand over Kuja) without trying to get a zero bracket!

So was I.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I wasn't. I suck at upset picks >_>
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
*Is now in need of a sig

XD, I think the most hardest part about the brackets is, everyone has a major upset once in a while that just shocks everyone.
---
Alt of Razorwolf66 Join Metroid wars today!
http://s11.invisionfree.com/Metroid_Wars_Reborn/index.php?act=idx new war starts soon!

Good job Adept. I remember being made fun of for that pick before Master Hand beat Kuja. I had a good laugh watching the chaos after that match. lol
---
Now Playing: Kingdom Hearts: CoM, Wario Ware Twisted, Fire Emblem: TSS, Tales of Symphonia

If I had predicted that, then I would have had a perfect bracker. Nice topic, keep it up.
---
"Monsters. Guess after this one there'll be one less to worry about."
- Leon S. Kennedy (Resident Evil 4)

Match 41: (1) Master Chief vs (4) Donkey Kong

Projected winner: Master Chief

This is just another oppurtunity to see about how much Master Chief has gained. Not that it will matter since he got a really easy path followed by someone he can't hope to beat. Kind of sucks really. It would have been better if he ended up facing Zero.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 42: (3) Kefka vs (2) Crono

Projected winner: Crono

Obvious match.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

2K4 Ex Stats[Adjusted]
--
16 Ryu 29.84%
18 Bowser 28.88%

The stats DONT favor Bowser to win[You said they did in your review]
---
May 05 NPD Sales - PSP - 250k. DS - 57k.
PSP trumps DS by nearly 5x in sales for the month of May.

2K4 Ex Stats[Adjusted]
--
16 Ryu 29.84%
18 Bowser 28.88%

The stats DONT favor Bowser to win[You said they did in your review]

Well, stats have about a 1.5% range of error. And I meant that Bowser will win upwards of 54%, a lot higher than the 50/50 ordeal the stats say the match should be.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Wow, our brackets are identical right now, and I was shaky about a lot of my picks earlier, too :)

ill have to rethink kirby vs tidus then...
_-¯-_
Most People are so Ungrateful to be alive, but not you... not anymore

Match 43: (1) Dante vs (5) Vincent Valentine

Projected winner: Dante

This is another pick that is undoubtedly unpopular. As I said before, I think Vincent will greatly underachieve this contest. The fact is, Cloud and Sephiroth are leagues above anyone else from FF7. But I'm sure you knew that. Now, on the one hand, if you really believe that Vincent will outperform Aeris, he should be the obvious pick for this match. Thing is, I don't. In a poll of favorite FF7 characters, Vincent would place pretty high. But when you throw him into the ring in a one on one match, my feeling is that he proves to be a good deal weaker than you'd expect. This has been shown to happen on a few occasions, such as with the Sonic Team, where I think Knuckles placed the highest as favorite character. I think the FF7 pecking order, in terms of contest strength, will end up being Cloud->Sephiroth->Aeris->Vincent->Tifa. And I expect a huge drop off after Aeris. This is because really, Vincent didn't have much personality, but at least he was badass, and Tifa was a bumbling bimbo with big boobs (sorry Vlado >>;). Truth is, Aeris had a crappy personality too, but she was the center of the big spoiler, so that earns her popularity.

Dante, on the other hand, has recently had DMC3 come out to help him get a nice boost, seeing as DMC2 was horrible and no reason to like Dante. And DMC3 probably WILL have a profound effect, as evidenced by Vergil's surprising performance in the Spring. To put it in perspective, Dante was about 5% weaker than Aeris. That was before Devil May Cry 3. Now, I'd have trouble choosing between Dante and Aeris, but I doubt Vincent will display the same type of strength. However, this match would be problematic if Advent Children was out about two weeks before this match. Luckily, that isn't going to happen. So I think Dante will win by a surprisingly large margin. However, if Vincent being an optional character with little real personality ends up helping him (somehow), then I will be proven wrong on this match. For all intents and purposes, this is actually an upset pick.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Yay, I also have Dante over Vincent.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

Wow, our brackets are identical right now, and I was shaky about a lot of my picks earlier, too :)

Something tells me I will have at least one different pick from you down the line. :P My bracket sort of gets a bit off the wall in later matches.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

The only one we don't agree on is Sora and Alucard. Which is good because then we both don't have to go into the tie breaker :P.
---
"Judge Not, that you be Not Judged." - Matthew 7:1

Match 41: (1) Master Chief vs (4) Donkey Kong

Projected winner: Master Chief

This is just another oppurtunity to see about how much Master Chief has gained. Not that it will matter since he got a really easy path followed by someone he can't hope to beat. Kind of sucks really. It would have been better if he ended up facing Zero.

If only more people has played Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat. I got to play the demo-thing at Gamestop a few days ago and WOW is it fun. When I first saw it being advertised, my first assumptrion was...."Now that's rediculous. That must be so hard to control and stuff." Now, I know better. That game is so much rediculous fun....oh and tag. >.>
---
The PS3 isn't designed to lean towards games. It's not a computer for children.-Ken Kutaragi, President SCEI

Match 44: (3) Magus vs (2) Squall Leonhart

Projected winner: Magus

This match is kind of problematic. See, I don't trust Magus' position in the stats. I think he may be weaker than they say. However, I also think Squall might be weaker than the stats say too. Why? Well I'll tell you. Squall beat Kirby and Bomberman last year. Both of those characters had no real reason to move. Squall made them both look stronger. Now, yes, I'm choosing Kirby to beat Tidus. But that's more because I think he will get a pretty significant boost anyway. In reality, it doesn't make sense that Kirby or Bomberman would have gained last year. However, even though that is ENTIRELY possible, Squall is projected to lose to Magus anyway. So in short, this is a pretty good upset pick, if you want to take the risk. Personally, I don't. These are two characters who have fishy positions in the stats, but I think Squall is weaker either way.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 45: (1) Sonic vs (5) Diablo

Projected winner: Sonic

You'd be pretty silly if you took Diablo in this match.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Squall made them both look stronger

Bomberman, yes. Kirby, no.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Something tells me I will have at least one different pick from you down the line. :P My bracket sort of gets a bit off the wall in later matches.

Wow, you're right, I put Squall over Magus

Bomberman, yes. Kirby, no.

Really? *goes to recheck*

Uh. It says Kirby went up by about 2%. From 26.34% against 2K3 Link to 28.54% against 2K3 Link.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Wow, you're right, I put Squall over Magus

I actually meant things like Sonic over Mega Man, but that works too. :P
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Uh. It says Kirby went up by about 2%.

So did Alucard. You can blame Sephiroth for that. Regardless, the gap between Bomberman and Kirby decreased, for one reason or another. Squall did .3% on Bomberman than Alucard did, and yet he did nearly 3% better on Kirby.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

So did Alucard. You can blame Sephiroth for that. Regardless, the gap between Bomberman and Kirby decreased, for one reason or another. Squall did .3% on Bomberman than Alucard did, and yet he did nearly 3% better on Kirby.

Ah, I see what you mean. Depends on how you look at it really... Either way, I'm not knocking the upset pick, it's one of the better ones. But as evidenced by past contests, I don't like to take crazy risks. >>;
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Err, I put Sonic over Megaman, too O_o

I also believe a huge upset is in the works, but forget Zero < Lloyd, I believe Zero > Mario. Zero barely lost to Sonic and got 44% against Megaman WITH SFF. Mario is ranked lower than Megaman and is only 3.1% below Mario when SFF is factored, and I believe that isn't very accurate. Add in the possible gain in popularity from a large score against Lloyd and I say his odds are good.

The other possible upset is anyone beating Snake before the final four. Manny has the approximate chance of a hippo learning to fly of winning, but he could hurt Snake with a moderate score. Zelda will get a large score from the Zelda fanboys, which will hurt Snake, but he'll still likely win. Then comes Alucard or Sora. These are two very strong characters who have a small chance of winning, but this may increase depending on how Snake does against Zelda. We finally have Bowser. He's got somewhat of a better chance of beating Snake that the others from the Sp2K5 and Snake's other bad performances, so his odds of winning are really good. However, there is one thing people haven't yet thought up. In round 3 of the SC2K4, a bad picture of Snake was put up which caused Snake to almost lose to Frog. This or a similar pic may go up, since pixelated pics usually go up in one found or another. If that happens again, Snake is gonna get PWNED, as Zelda, Alucard, Sora, and Bowser are all better than Frog.
---
"I landed on something soft and Red Mage-shaped. I think it was a pillow." - BM

I have Tidus > Kirby, but other then that, we have the exact same bracket so far, even Sonic > Megaman.
---
This is not a sig, just felt like writing something down here.

>>

Guys, Sonic over Mega Man is a terrible choice. I suggest you go change it, immediately.

<<

>>
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Match 46: (3) Tifa Lockheart vs (2) Luigi

Projected winner: Luigi

THIS is what unpopular picks are made of! As I've been stressing for the better part of this topic, Mario 64 DS was the best game on DS for months, has sold about 1.5 million copies as of last week, and is now packaged with every DS. I don't know if Luigi was in the latest Paper Mario, but if so, that just helps all the more. I also referenced my assumption for the pecking order of character strength from Final Fantasy VII in my Vincent/Dante match. To reiterate, I think Tifa will be weaker than Vincent and Aeris. So what we basically have here, is a possible boost of up to maybe 5% (that's the most, not my guess) for Luigi, who FINALLY got to be in Mario 64, and a Final Fantasy VII character who won't be able to procure a boost from Advent Children by the time this match rolls around. However, if I end up being WRONG about the strength order, and Tifa is actually stronger than Vincent, then I will either get this match wrong, or the drop-off after Aeris will have to be astronomical. Unfortunately, this match is a leap of faith regardless of who you choose, as it's either you think Tifa is quite strong, or quite weak.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 47: (1) Mega Man vs (5) Leon Kennedy

Projected winner: Mega Man

Another giveaway.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Adept, you're putting WAY too much faith in SM64DS. There's been about 5 different matches so far that you based solely on that.
---
"I landed on something soft and Red Mage-shaped. I think it was a pillow." - BM

Match 48: (3) Yoshi vs (2) Revolver Ocelot

Projected winner: Yoshi

Mario 64 DS, Ocelot about Luigi's old strength, etc.. Next round rivals the first in terms of sheer ease.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I don't know if Luigi was in the latest Paper Mario, but if so, that just helps all the more.

Not really. Just about every time he appears in the game, Nintendo takes a cheap shot at him.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Yeah, usually, handheld games don't do much for characters. If you think a remake is going to push a very weak Luigi over a top 5 FF7 character in Tifa, well then good luck to you.
---
This is not a sig, just felt like writing something down here.

Tifa has to be MUCH weaker than Aeris to lose to Luigi. I don't see that. I think Tifa will win it with ease.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

Adept, you're putting WAY too much faith in SM64DS. There's been about 5 different matches so far that you based solely on that.

Well, I actually forgot to mention Paper Mario in the first few. But it's not my fault that there are 4 characters from the game that I expect it to boost. Those are a lot of matches. I mean, playable Yoshi, Luigi, helping Mario re-enter people's minds, multiple Bowser fights? That should help a bunch. And then Paper Mario has Bowser and Mario AGAIN, and Bowser is supposedly awesome in it. And it just further enhances Mario re-entering people's mindset.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Not really. Just about every time he appears in the game, Nintendo takes a cheap shot at him.

Oh, he's comic relief in that one? Bleh.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Tifa has to be MUCH weaker than Aeris to lose to Luigi. I don't see that. I think Tifa will win it with ease.

She has to get 4% less than Aeris on 2K3 Link, if my guesstimation for Luigi's boost is right... 6% if Luigi doesn't gain as much as I thought...
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Also, even IF he is just comic relief in PM: TTYD, at least he is in it a bit. People DO like comedy. I wouldn't expect that alone to really increase his strength much... But the combination of the two could.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I agree with you for the most part. I just can't fathom Tifa losing to Luigi though. Hell I've gone back and forth giving KOS-MOS a victory in round 1. If anything Luigi will win in round one with about 55% and then lose to Tifa 65-35. That's what I think though. :P

I also considered Sonic > MM for a LONG time. In the end, I just can't do it though. Good luck with that pick. Along with Samus/Mario I think that will be the match that decides the contest winner.

---
Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence
I got pwned by Yoblazer in the Guru Contest

It's fully understandable to not think Tifa losing to Luigi makes sense. Two years ago, no one though Luigi losing to Squall would make sense either. Some matches just don't seem like they should happen the way they do.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Well, it didn't make sense because nobody expected Luigi to be so weak, and nobody saw KHF coming.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I love you for putting Luigi>Tifa.

But not Yoshi>Ocelot...
---
Samus for this years tourney, Link for the overall once again.

Well, it didn't make sense because nobody expected Luigi to be so weak, and nobody saw KHF coming.

Okay. This time it doesn't make sense because no one expects Tifa to be so weak, nor to they see SM64DSF (that's not very catchy at all >>;) coming.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

taggety tag

Two years ago, no one though Luigi losing to Squall would make sense either

Well I picked Squall for the victory, but that may be because I'm a huge FF8 fan. This year I had to try hard not to give Squall the edge over Magus due to my bias. :P

---
Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence
I got pwned by Yoblazer in the Guru Contest

It's okay to take Squall over Magus. It'll pay off.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

seems to me that the only people taking Squall > Magus are huge ff8 fans. that alone is pushing me toward Magus.

---
---
---

Match 49: (1) Mario vs (3) Zero

Projected winner: Mario

I've been hearing some talk about a Zero > Mario upset. Well, I'm sure you are all getting bored with me beating a dead horse, so from now on, just remember, I think Mario, Luigi, Yoshi, and Bowser, will undergo at least a little boost. Moving along, some people think Zero got SFFed agianst Mega Man. Well, there is really no reason to think that. He stayed remarkably constant from 2K3 to 2K4, and there isn't any real reason he should have gotten stronger. I reallyl can't fathom this upset happening, despite the two looking pretty similar in strength.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 50: (1) Samus Aran vs (3) Ganondorf

Projected winner: Samus

I'm not really sure that this match is even in question... I don't know why it would be, but I'll just say that despite thinking Ganon might be somewhat stronger than he is though to be by most, it won't be by very much, and even if Ganon was a full percent stronger than Samus, I'd take the bounty hunter anyway.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Keep in mind that Advent Children is coming out this year...that may give FF7 a boost.

I have Luigi losing to Tifa (although I have Dante beating Vincent).
---
"Some say we're born into the grave..." - Alice In Chains

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Wtf?
---
This is not a sig, just felt like writing something down here.

Keep in mind that Advent Children is coming out this year...that may give FF7 a boost.

I have Luigi losing to Tifa (although I have Dante beating Vincent).

I'm accounting for that. It's not due out in time to help Tifa, but I think its effect will be noticed in the Tournament of Champions.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Match 51: (1) Solid Snake vs (6) Alucard

Projected winner: Solid Snake

Another easy one, another chance to see if we think MGS3 helped Snake.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

What typo? >>;;
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

We've got identical first rounds. If history repeats itself, I will be happy. We begin to drastically drift apart after Round 1. If history repeats itself, I will be happy.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Hey, don't forget that Solid Snake/Alucard features two of the ugliest sprites in existence.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

I believe A HUGE UPSET will happen this year...

Something we all won't expect... I think Gannondorf not only will go all the way, but perhaps a major video game character may actually be defeated.

Who wants to buy pot from me?

Anyone?

Okay.

I say the major upset is King of All Cosmos over Tidus.
---
Summer contest nominees: Sheena Fujibayashi, Lloyd Irving, Dizzy and Slayer(Guilty Gear series), Mewtwo, Laharl, Prier, Lyndis, Kain Highwind, Locke Cole

We've got identical first rounds. If history repeats itself, I will be happy. We begin to drastically drift apart after Round 1. If history repeats itself, I will be happy.

:(

I hope history only repeats itself first round, as I'll get that perfect then.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 52: (1) Kirby vs (3) Bowser

Projected winner: Bowser

Yeah, you know exactly what I want to say, so I won't even bother. I think everyone would be shocked if Bowser (or Ryu) didn't win here.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 53: (1) Master Chief vs (2) Crono

Projected winner: Crono

Master Chief would have to get a pretty enormous boost to have any shot here.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Another possible upset?
---
Alt of Razorwolf66 Join Metroid wars today!
http://s11.invisionfree.com/Metroid_Wars_Reborn/index.php?act=idx new war starts soon!

=P

For the record, we differ with Kirby, Dante (I only changed it to Vincent a little while ago; likely the same time you changed Alucard), and Luigi.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Match 54: (1) Dante vs (3) Magus

Projected winner: Magus

I wish Dante had started with a higher ranking from last year, as it would be great if this match was made into a tough choice thanks to DMC 3. As it is, unless Magus is WAAAY more overestimated than I think, he wins, but he wouldn't even get this far if that was the case.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Solid Snake is definitely the owner of the most horribly disfigured sprite. EVER.
---
Kefka is WINNAR 2k5!!!
*Commits Harakiri*

Nah, my major upset will be Wesker coming out of nowhere and actually winning the first round. And possibly Rikku over Ryu, just because I see her as nowhere near Mr. FF Whipping Boy Tidus

And yes, I'm fully aware that last one will burn me
---
Oven man, running in my head
Official Iceman of the C&GN - Freezing Testicles Nationwide

Alucard's is hideous as well.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Ok, Luigi over Tifa isn't impossible but even I (the upset lover) believe it's not happening. Yoshi over Ocelot to me seems to make sense. Bowser beat Ocelot in the Spring Contest 66-34. Bowser in 2003 beat Yoshi 56-44 and the gap between them seems to be slightly shortening so Yoshi should win maybe about 58%-42%.
---
Now Playing: Kingdom Hearts: CoM, Wario Ware Twisted, Fire Emblem: TSS, Tales of Symphonia

For the record, we differ with Kirby, Dante (I only changed it to Vincent a little while ago; likely the same time you changed Alucard), and Luigi.

All three of which are pretty difficult choices anyway.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Ok, Luigi over Tifa isn't impossible but even I (the upset lover) believe it's not happening.

Did you have Ryu over Sonic last year? I did. Did you have Master Chief over Frog? I did. Did you have Ocelot over Bowser in the spring? I did.

Yes, Ryu over Sonic. Stop laughing damn it!
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I had Luigi over Tifa the first few hours after the bracket was revealed, so I can definitely agree those matches are head scratchers.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

>_>

I picked Tifa... There's no way i'm supporting recent games, they betray me sometimes...
---
Alt of Razorwolf66 Join Metroid wars today!
http://s11.invisionfree.com/Metroid_Wars_Reborn/index.php?act=idx new war starts soon!

I would laugh if KOS-MOS cost somebody a perfect bracket again...
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Luigi is gonna struggle with KOS-MOS. I highly doubt someone that struggles with someone from a non-Square RPG will be able to take down someone from FF7. That's just my opinion anyways.
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Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

Match 55: (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs (2) Luigi

Projected winner: Sonic

Hopefully Sonic overperforms. A lot. Maybe Sonic Mega Collection Plus being on XBox since last November will help. Well, either way, he wins this.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Did you have Ryu over Sonic last year?
I didn't participate in last years contest

Did you have Ocelot over Bowser in the spring?
Did you have Nemesis over Ocelot in the spring?
Did you have M.Brain over Lavos?
Did you have M.Hand over Ku... Oh wait... you did...
Nemesis over Wily?
M. Brain over Liquid Snake?
M.Hand over Sin?
Ganondorf over Sephiroth?
I had them all. (Although I can see you are an upset lover as well)
---
Now Playing: Kingdom Hearts: CoM, Wario Ware Twisted, Fire Emblem: TSS, Tales of Symphonia

Match 56: (1) Mega Man vs (3) Yoshi

Projected winner: Mega Man

Hopefully Yoshi overperforms. A lot. Maybe Yoshi being popularized in the 16 bit era will help. Either way, he loses this.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Did you have Nemesis over Ocelot in the spring?
Did you have M.Brain over Lavos?
Did you have M.Hand over Ku... Oh wait... you did...
Nemesis over Wily?
M. Brain over Liquid Snake?
M.Hand over Sin?
Ganondorf over Sephiroth?
I had them all. (Although I can see you are an upset lover as well)

Well, BAH TO YOU GOOD SIR!
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I'm having a lot of difficulty trying to find out if Yoshi will be over Revolver.
---
Orange of Doom is my evil citrusy brother.PH34R!
I don't want to stand here and say I'm sorry. I just want to drink beer and play Atari!

Match 57: (1) Mario vs (1) Samus

Projected winner: Mario

Ah yes, this is the match to end all matches. Here we have it, Mr. Nintendo vs Mrs. Nintendo. In terms of sheer, pure, raw contest strength, Samus should win. Based on last years information anyway. Jumping back to my feelings that Mario gained, I'll just remind you of why. >>; Mario 64 DS + Paper Mario 2 = a bit of gain for Mario. Now, people seem to be under the impression that Mario simply can't gain or lose strength in this contest. To be honest, that seems like a ridiculous notion, and I'll tell you why. The way this contest works is not isolated groups who vote for each character. There aren't X people who always vote Mario, Y people who vote Samus, and Z people who vote Crono. Every fanbase has SOME overlap. All you have to do is take that overlap, and get them thinking about the character they don't currently support. The overlap that supports Samus and Mario is pretty big... it's pretty much everyone who likes Nintendo.

Now, I know that Samus was in Metroid Prime 2, but Metroid Prime 2 sold pretty poorly. Mario 64 DS has sold about 1.5 million in the US and Japan, and I don't know the Europen figures. Paper Mario has sold... well, I'm not sure. The point is, Mario has been given the oppurtunity to re-enter people's minds MUCH more than Samus. Additionally, for all intents and purposes, Mario is synonomous with Nintendo. Most Nintendo fans like Mario (if you are a Nintendo fan who doesn't like Mario, I know you exist, there is no need to quote this post and then say "I love Nintendo and hate Mario!!!!!). Mario is representative of everything great the company used to be, and still is. Therefore, while any strength boost alone probably won't be enough for Mario to overtake Samus, the sheer symbolism behind Mario to MANY Nintendo fans that gets overshadowed by Link, won't get overshadowed by Samus, and I think we will have our first legitimate, provable case of reverse SFF in these contests.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I'm having a lot of difficulty trying to find out if Yoshi will be over Revolver.

A straight-up stat conversion of Ocelot in the Spring, through Sephiroth, to the 2K4 rankings, has him about 3% weaker than Yoshi.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Ocelot and Yoshi both faced Bowser directly. One did significantly better. It's not hard.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

He did make a great appearence in MGS3 though.

If you played it (And I don't know if you did), you will remember the ending sequence.
---
Orange of Doom is my evil citrusy brother.PH34R!
I don't want to stand here and say I'm sorry. I just want to drink beer and play Atari!

Great stuff so far! Tag.

---
Official supporter of Vincent Valentine in the Summer 2005 Contest.

Also with Samus and Ganondorf, I have Ganondorf beating Samus out, just because of the hype concerning Twilight Princess, it does bring Ganondorf to mind, even though he might not be the villian there.
---
Orange of Doom is my evil citrusy brother.PH34R!
I don't want to stand here and say I'm sorry. I just want to drink beer and play Atari!

The... spring contest was af- never mind, it's a pretty tough match. I can't be sure either way.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Sorry, Adept_Of_Aiur, but you're banking way too heavily on the DS.
---
"Fail to live up to your potential, and you will never win..." - Gaspar (Chrono Trigger)

Sorry, Adept_Of_Aiur, but you're banking way too heavily on the DS.

I'm not banking on a huge boost from the DS you know, it just happens to come up a lot since it will affect a lot of matches. I'm thinking maybe a 3% boost from Paper Mario and the DS combined.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Mario 64 DS has sold about 1.5 million in the US and Japan, and I don't know the Europen figures.

Ouch, it only sold 1.5 million in the US and Japan combined? That's pretty poor, and IIRC, about half as good as Super Mario Advance 4.

I believe Samus will definitely SFF Mario. I wouldn't be surprised to see Samus win with 60% of the vote.

He did make a great appearence in MGS3 though.

And MGS3 came out before the Spring Contest, so his match against Bowser was with him having that boost already.

Yes, actually, I've gotten over the fact about Yoshi vs Ocelot,

But I am having real hard trouble wondering why you picked Samus over Ganondorf. It's just troubling to me, that's it.
---
Orange of Doom is my evil citrusy brother.PH34R!
I don't want to stand here and say I'm sorry. I just want to drink beer and play Atari!

I believe Samus will definitely SFF Mario. I wouldn't be surprised to see Samus win with 60% of the vote.

Okay. As you can probably guess, I disagree. It's not like either side is exactly "wrong" yet. Both could make very legitimate arguments.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Yes, actually, I've gotten over the fact about Yoshi vs Ocelot,

But I am having real hard trouble wondering why you picked Samus over Ganondorf. It's just troubling to me, that's it.

Because she performs a lot better in these contests than him.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Where did you get all the stats from?

I'd like to have a look..if that's okay.
---
Orange of Doom is my evil citrusy brother.PH34R!
I don't want to stand here and say I'm sorry. I just want to drink beer and play Atari!

Just look through past poll results.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

http://www.sc2k5.com/

Tons of contest related statistics.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Yeah, I thought of that, but then I couldn't find it >_>
---
Orange of Doom is my evil citrusy brother.PH34R!
I don't want to stand here and say I'm sorry. I just want to drink beer and play Atari!

Hum, never mind.
---
Orange of Doom is my evil citrusy brother.PH34R!
I don't want to stand here and say I'm sorry. I just want to drink beer and play Atari!

I still think Samus will get over Mario...
_-¯-_
Most People are so Ungrateful to be alive, but not you... not anymore

No matter what anyone says... no matter what they say... I just cannot take Mario over Samus. I WANT to, but I just can't do it. I'm expecting a match decided by a margin of less than 51-49 (Although the difference could easily be 6-8 percent if SFF or rSFF is MASSIVE). Although more people seem to favor Mario, I have to go with Samus here.

---
Signature? What signature? *Hides*

Hmm...I have Samus over Mario.
---
Analysing humour is like analysing a frog: you can do it, but the frog tends to die in the process.

Match 58: (1) Solid Snake vs (3) Bowser

Projected winner: Solid Snake

Bowser really deserves to win this match, but he can't. Again, if MGS3 hadn't come out, maybe my choice would be different here. As it is, there is no way Bowser would gain upwards of 6% in one year. 4% is the absolute CEILING for his boost, and I wanna say 3%. And then there is the distinct possibility he doesn't gain anything. Nah, Snake wins this one.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

go snake ^_^
_-¯-_
Most People are so Ungrateful to be alive, but not you... not anymore

I JUST chose Snake over Bowser too... finally finish my bracket :P.

---
Signature? What signature? *Hides*

Bowser doesnt need to gain six percent. Even if you go by 2004 SFF stats, Bowser only needs to gain two, and thats including bogus SFF helping Snake.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

As it is, there is no way Bowser would gain upwards of 6% in one year.

And you're expecting Luigi to gain 6%? WTF?
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

Good predictions.

Bowser doesnt need to gain six percent. Even if you go by 2004 SFF stats, Bowser only needs to gain two, and thats including bogus SFF helping Snake.

I think Snake increased, remember?
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

How is Snake going to increase, HE ISNT IN METAL GEAR SOLID 3!
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Yes, he is. Apparently, you're not familiar with Snake vs. Monkey.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

And you're expecting Luigi to gain 6%? WTF?

*slaps*

NO! I'm expecting Luigi to gain about 3%. I said 5% is his ceiling. That means if he somehow gains more than expected, 5% is the MAX.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

but Big Boss looks like Snake...
_-¯-_
Most People are so Ungrateful to be alive, but not you... not anymore

;_; You know what I meant.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

I DEMAND Sonic Vs. Megaman NOW. I can't friggin choose. Although everyone seems to say Sonic > Megaman = Doom.

---
Signature? What signature? *Hides*

From: NewLib | Posted: 6/30/2005 3:42:35 PM | Message Detail
How is Snake going to increase, HE ISNT IN METAL GEAR SOLID 3!

Naked Snake looks exactly the same and has the same VA.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

And Big Boss is in this contest and should get a boost for looking like Snake.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

How is Snake going to increase, HE ISNT IN METAL GEAR SOLID 3!

A) He's in a mini game.
B) *SPOILERS FOR MGS SERIES!!!!*


Solid Snake is a clone of Naked Snake. They are pretty damn similar. They have the same character model, same voice, same badass appeal.


*END SPOILERS*
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I have to go with, I think, Ulti on this one. Metal Gear Solid fans are smart enough to know that Solid Snake != Naked Snake. Just like Solid Snake != Liquid Snake.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Big Boss will only benefit from looking like Snake if he actually gets the Naked Snake picture. I doubt he will though, since Ceej gave him his old man artwork on the character page.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

Match 59: (1) Crono vs (3) Magus

Projected winner: Crono

It's a shame this match is going to repeat. I almost hope Squall manages to upset Magus just to avoid this SFF-fest.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

NewLib, if CJC is smart, hell use the old Big Boss, so that there's no confusion... wait... he used a Big Boss pic as Snake last year so anything can happen...
_-¯-_
Most People are so Ungrateful to be alive, but not you... not anymore

Big Boss will benefit, but I doubt Solid will benefit.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Aaaaand, I'm not doing Sonic vs Mega Man right now. :P
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

he used a Big Boss pic as Snake last year so anything can happen...

That's before Naked Snake was confirmed to be Big Boss.
---
Hi,I'm partystar. ^_^
Or maybe I'm Leonhart. That's for you to decide.

if my guesstimation for Luigi's boost is right... 6%

Your comment earlier seems to suggest otherwise.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

if my guesstimation for Luigi's boost is right... 6%

Hm... What post was that? That was a mistake. My Luigi vs Tifa analysis reflects my actual feelings on the subject..
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

From: NewLib | Posted: 6/30/2005 11:45:13 PM
I have to go with, I think, Ulti on this one. Metal Gear Solid fans are smart enough to know that Solid Snake != Naked Snake. Just like Solid Snake != Liquid Snake.

but Solid Snake still represents MGS, just like most of these characters get nominated only because the games they are in are good and not due to their character, Snake will also get votes because a new MGS is out, no matter what happens when people say MGS the character that is associated is Solid Snake and that will give him votes.

_-¯-_
Most People are so Ungrateful to be alive, but not you... not anymore

OH!

You misinterpreted that post man.

"She has to get 4% less than Aeris on 2K3 Link, if my guesstimation for Luigi's boost is right... 6% if Luigi doesn't gain as much as I thought..."

That means that if my guess for Luigi's boost is correct, Tifa has to be 4% weaker than Aeris for Luigi to win. If my guess for Luigi's boost is OFF, she just has to be 6% weaker.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

tag

he used a Big Boss pic as Snake last year so anything can happen...

That's before Naked Snake was confirmed to be Big Boss.

Actually it was not confirmed but most of the people already suspected it was Big Boss, there was even complaints on this board because of the pic.
_-¯-_
Most People are so Ungrateful to be alive, but not you... not anymore

Oh I just read it wrong then. Never mind, carry on. These analyses are good by the way.
---
Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

I don't know about the Mario VS Samus match. I guess I'll change my pick to Mario since you seem to know what you're talking about.
---
Now Playing: Kingdom Hearts: CoM, Wario Ware Twisted, Fire Emblem: TSS, Tales of Symphonia

Rad: Its a toss up, no one really knows :P

---
Signature? What signature? *Hides*

tag
---
AIM: MewThatsGold
MSN: goldenmew@gmail.com

Oh I just read it wrong then. Never mind, carry on. These analyses are good by the way.

Thanks. ^_^

I don't know about the Mario VS Samus match. I guess I'll change my pick to Mario since you seem to know what you're talking about.

I wouldn't suggest changing picks to what I say. I usually don't do too well in the later parts of these contests.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Seems like I've spotted your Ocelot/Bowser pick in Tifa/Luigi...

MM, you so should have joined the Analysis Crew.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!

I think Leon will do surprisingly well, although he has no chance against MM. RE4 definitely will help him since it does more than just recent, it brought in new people who hadn't played RE before (unless thats just me). And he can't be expected to perform like Wesker since Wesker was barely in RE4.
---
Note to Self: I OWN YOU

Seems like I've spotted your Ocelot/Bowser pick in Tifa/Luigi...

:(

MM, you so should have joined the Analysis Crew.

I was thinking of asking at some point, but I don't think I'd be too good for it as I would end up viewing it as something of a chore, even though I would like writing them. I would have to muster the will to write on each day. On the other hand, maybe, since I do like writing them, I'd just have no problem making one each day. Either way, it's a moot point now. ^_^ How big is it, 6 or 7 people already?
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I would just like to point out that in the Mario/Samus battle you have the DS helping Mario, which I believe it will (and I have Mario winning). But just to be fair, the DS came with a Metroid Prime:Hunters Preview when it was first released (which is when most people bought it). So that might help Samus a little...

Yeah, I was thinking about that. I honestly can't decide how much that will help her, but for that specific match, I'm not really relying on the DS to help Mario so much as the reverse SFF he should get for being representative of Nintendo.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I agree 100%

Now hurry up and finish the bracket!

Oh yeah, the American public supports the Mario Bros. DIE OSAMUS!!!

http://osamus.ytmnd.com/
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

5 people, and I (along with Soul and Outback) have already started writing them up, so it doesn't become a chore or so we don't have to rush to do them at the last second.

But hey, if you ever change your mind, tell me.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar (GAC)
SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!

If I ever decide that I'm interested in it, I'll ask you. Thanks for the invite ^_^
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Phew. Just finished c/ping each analysis to my newly found secret board which will be used as an archive from now on. And I will do the remaining 5 matches, plus the Tournament of Champions, tomorrow.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

remaining 4 matches*
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Tag.
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~Proud Pirate Of THE LUCA BLIGHT ARMY~

300th Post!(also a tag)
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Sonic will beat Mega Man, I bet all of, something....
Don't let Diablo or Tifa beat Sonic!

great stuff so far. I agree with most of it. (tag)
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Zed's dead, baby. Zed's dead.

Random bump. I still don't want to analyze, but I wouldn't mind more people getting the chance to read.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

tag
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NO SOUP FOR YOU!!
When i was 5 i went blind. When i was 6 i chose to live.

Late tag
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

Nice analyses, but I remember you lying on a few things this spring... or maybe it was last summer. Either way, I remember, soooo I don't plan on trusting you for everything. Though, I'll admit that I did change something because of your analysis, even if you were lying about it. :D
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VOTE*~*~Lloyd Irving, Diablo, Vincent Valentine and Alucard in the Sc2k5!~*~*

tag!

Projected winner: Master Chief

He is strong he is hot jk he is kewl
he kiks but yo but the point is the compitition
everyone the especialy pacman will not stand a chance
he has shields mario dont
yea carl joghnson wiklll win yea right end of story
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http://img150.echo.cx/my.php?image=newbie72sc.jpg
http://img15.echo.cx/img15/3225/newbie36wl.jpg

Hello my name is English, and that man just raped me!
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Alt of Razorwolf66 Join Metroid wars today!
http://s11.invisionfree.com/Metroid_Wars_Reborn/index.php?act=idx new war starts soon!

well my name is japan i dont know much so back off
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http://img150.echo.cx/my.php?image=newbie72sc.jpg
http://img15.echo.cx/img15/3225/newbie36wl.jpg

>_>...

If you are from another Country then that's ok... I just thought you were an American who doesn't use spell check... sorry.
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Alt of Razorwolf66 Join Metroid wars today!
http://s11.invisionfree.com/Metroid_Wars_Reborn/index.php?act=idx new war starts soon!

tagging

Thanks for for your analysis so far; its very helpful.
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Warning: may offend some listeners
http://willydavidk.250free.com/gangsta.html

good analysis.

For some things people rely too much on the stats. There are a lot of matches where the outcome may be surprising. If you look at Tifa vs Luigi, to be honest, I didn't know who tifa was before coming to this site, and everyone knows luigi. Then again I did know who squall was because he is on the covers and he is a main character. And I've also played FF7 and I think Tifa doesn't have one of the greater personalities. If the looks were different she would have gotten a lot less votes.

At some matches it is maybe better to chose the character you think to win, without getting here. Remember that a lot of the top 50 are not regular users on these boards, and just fill in a bracket on how much they know the character and the game, and how much the character is like in their opinion.

Another good example was Tails vs VJ last year. A lot of people went with VJ but seriously he is much less known then tails. And VJ doesn't have as much personality as Tails does (although some people don't like his personality.

And if you go too much with the board a lot of people will have the same bracket as you, and I would rather have a 1% chance to be lonely at number 1, then a 25% chance to be in the leaderboard with 30 others with the same bracket.

Don't know why I was typing this, just was bored for a moment and I don't feel like erasing it all after typing it.
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190/192 points in sc2004
tiebrakowned by nifboy

Projected winner: Luigi

There are so many upset picks that make sense in the bracket and you choose this?! You're in for a rude awakening my friend. Tifa won't have any trouble disposing of Luigi, who may or may not make it out of Round 1.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

If you look at Tifa vs Luigi, to be honest, I didn't know who tifa was before coming to this site, and everyone knows luigi.

You're in a vast, vast minority, my friend. The majority of the people visiting GameFAQs have both played FFVII and are more than knowledgeable on the characters that play a crucial role in the game such as Tifa. I've said this so many times before, but just everyone knows who you are does not mean they like you. Mario is the most well-known character in the contest and he'd never win one of these without a few characters being gone. Luigi may be well-known as well, but it doesn't prevent him from being near the level of high-end fodder.

And I've also played FF7 and I think Tifa doesn't have one of the greater personalities. If the looks were different she would have gotten a lot less votes.

Personality, character development, depth, etc. all really don't matter in the contest setting. Characters such as Link are not exactly filled with these things yet he's won two contests in a dominant fashion.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

tag
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This Party's Gettin' Crazy . . . Let's Rock!

VJ doesn't have as much personality as Tails does

I'm sorry, what? Did you just say Viewtiful Joe has less personality than a two-tailed fox? Na, can't be.
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Nominate Zidane for SC2K5! http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php
R.I.P, Tech TV 12/31/04

Tagged until Mmage finishes this.

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the-elite.net congratulates yoblazer, winner of the Spring '05 Guru Contest!
Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

Nice analyses, but I remember you lying on a few things this spring... or maybe it was last summer. Either way, I remember, soooo I don't plan on trusting you for everything. Though, I'll admit that I did change something because of your analysis, even if you were lying about it. :D

Nah, none of that this year. I realized that it's not worth the effort of thinking up fake arguments that sound logical to try and trick people.

There are so many upset picks that make sense in the bracket and you choose this?! You're in for a rude awakening my friend. Tifa won't have any trouble disposing of Luigi, who may or may not make it out of Round 1.

Bah to you good sir. You still haven't come down from your FFVII high. I respect your opinion, but you do overestimate characters from games you've recently played.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 60: (1) Sonic vs (1) Mega Man

Projected winner: Sonic

Now this... This is another pick that most people don't have. This combined with Mario/Samus will win or lose me the contest... Well, maybe not... My champion might be the real "coup de grace" to what may be an already dying bracket. But either way, let's focus on this match. Last year, we all saw Mega Man drop the ball against Link, underperforming by about 6%, a bit less when you take into consideration that Link got stronger. Now, in all reality, it's very possible that Mega Man didn't get SFFed, or anything of the sort. However, because that would screw up the rankings on other notable characters (most importantly Snake), everyone decided that Mega Man MUST have been SFFed by what I'll from now on refer to as the "old school factor." The theory is basically that since Mega Man debuted on the NES and continued through to the SNES, still selling the most games whenever he has a Nintendo excursion, Link and he must share a fanbase.

Now, in all honesty, I can't decide where I stand on this OSF. On the one hand, there isn't any reason that Mega Man HAD to have undergone any sort of factors dropping his performance. He still maintains a respectable position either way. In fact, Snake even maintains a respectable position. Still, I will accept the theory that Mega Man underperformed a little bit due to this OSF, but perhaps not quite as much as theorized. Now, even if I say that Mega Man did 2% less than he should have, due to OSF, which I think sounds reasonable for every intent and purpose, Mega Man falls to being just about equal to Sonic.

Now, I am going to go out on a limb. Why does OSF have to refer specifically to NES and SNES? Playstation and Nintendo 64 haven't had time to gel together in the collective minds of gamers, but SNES and Genesis share the same group of fans by now. My theory goes that IF Mega Man was OSFed by Link, Sonic should conceivably be capable of doing the same thing, as should Mario, and maybe even Crono (though Crono hails from an RPG). If Mega Man wasn't OSFed, and just flat out weakened, well then Sonic is a bit stronger than Mega Man and, with the coming of his collection to XBox last year, should be able to beat Mega Man anyway.

Therefore, though I can't take an official stance on OSF, since I really just flat out can't decide, Sonic should be able to win either way. And the fact that Sonic might be a little bit stronger this year, though not very much, only helps the situation.

Also, in light of my further thinking on this whole OSF thing, I might go back and change Snake vs Bowser...
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 61: (1) Mario vs (1) Solid Snake

Projected winner: Mario

Even with the full OSF adjustment for Mega Man, Mario is a lot stronger than Snake. Mario wins. And if I switch to Bowser beating Snake, Bowser gets SFFed to hell and back here anyway.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 62: (2) Crono vs (1) Sonic

Projected winner: Crono

Sonic is a bit too weak to have a chance here. Crono beats whoever gets here. Well, if Mega Man got past Sonic, negating the whole idea of OSF, and making it into Link owning him for no real, explainable reason, he could win this I guess. Wouldn't make much sense, but I'm not worried about it either way.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

And, the not-so-shocking conclusion will be up a little later, followed by the Tournament of Champions. I think you guys should be able to figure out who I have winning based on what these analyses have been stressing so vehemently.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Bah to you good sir. You still haven't come down from your FFVII high. I respect your opinion, but you do overestimate characters from games you've recently played.

FFVII high? That sure does explain how I'm projecting Tifa to be above the level of Luigi. Seriously, you act like I just said Tifa would beat Sonic. I don't care if I just played Paper Mario 2 for the first time, there's nothing that is making me commit bracket suicide by picking Luigi over Tifa. You're just vastly overestimating Luigi, and everyone else that is associated with Mario 64 DS for that matter. Calling a 5%+ boost for a character is not something that just happens, my friend. That requires something serious and a remake of an N64 game on a handheld is not that serious.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

Tifa would beat Sonic.

ARE YOU CRAZY?!?!!?
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

FFVII high? That sure does explain how I'm projecting Tifa to be above the level of Luigi. Seriously, you act like I just said Tifa would beat Sonic. I don't care if I just played Paper Mario 2 for the first time, there's nothing that is making me commit bracket suicide by picking Luigi over Tifa. You're just vastly overestimating Luigi, and everyone else that is associated with Mario 64 DS for that matter. Calling a 5%+ boost for a character is not something that just happens, my friend. That requires something serious and a remake of an N64 game on a handheld is not that serious.

And now as I journey over to serious land, I said 5% was the ABSOLUTE CEILING. You know, like how you were implying that a 15% gain for Mega Man was his absolute ceiling last year? I think that 3% is the most realistic boost any of the Mario crew will get from Mario 64 DS and Paper Mario COMBINED. And I'm not even caring that much about the boost for the Tifa match, I think she'll just end up being a lot weaker than anyone expects.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

No response? Okay.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Match 63: (1) Mario vs (2) Crono

Projected winner: Mario

BAM! Mario vs Crono IV: An Old Hope. I expect a full ten people to bash me for "putting to much stock" into Mario 64 DS. Let me explain AGAIN exactly what I think is going to happen to Mario this contest.

Paper Mario 2 came out last October. I'm not really sure how it sold, but I'd imagine it sold at least decently. Super Mario 64 DS came out in Japan and America last November. More recently it arrived in Europe. It was the best game on the system for a while. I DON'T expect either of these games to procure new fans for Mario. THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN. However, as I'm sure everyone is aware, Chrono Trigger was a Super Nintendo game. Yes, there was a PSX version, but in reality, it was a Super Nintendo game. Now, you may not be aware, but Mario is ALSO from Nitendo systems. Now I obviously don't think Mario is going to SFF Crono, as that would be asinine. Well, I guess what I'm talking about might be considered SFF... but it's not really.

Last year, Mario vs Crono III: Revenge of the Square, got 96,595 votes. Crono won with about 53% of the vote. If 3% of voters (about 3,000 people) change their vote from Crono to Mario, it will be a neck-and-neck battle.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1897

That is the most recent poll I can find that polls DS ownership. That poll was taken January 31st, and revealed that about 25% of GameFAQs visitors own a DS. Chances are that figure has raised in the past 5 months.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2042

That poll was taken recently, and after accounting for the poll glitch, revealed that about 70% of GameFAQs visitors have a Gamecube.

Among that sample group of people with a DS and/or a Gamecube, only 3,000 people have to have voted for Crono last year and change their vote to Mario this year due to, well, anything, but most likely Mario 64 DS or Paper Mario 2. Now, I don't personally think that is such a crazy idea. As I said, Crono and Mario certainly have SOME fanbase overlap, people who voted Mario the first two years, but grew tired having nothing new in the way of a real Mario title so voted Crono instead. Now they have two new reasons. You may think it's inconceivable, but I don't. And this is not "blind faith" for Mario 64 DS. It's an observation that voters can be fickle, and since only a handful of people need to change their mind from a pretty big sample group, the risk seems worth taking.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

lol tifa

>_>
<_<

I'm also banking on Tifa being a weak whore.

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It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~

Yeah, even if Tifa wins that match, two points isn't losing anyone the contest this year.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I took Tifa over Sonic... >.>

*tag*

I took Tifa over Sonic... >.>

o.0
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

LOL DATS BCUZ U GOT A 95 LOLOLOL

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It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~

3% of 100000 voters would be 3000 voters, but it would be 1500 to make it a tie. with 3000 switched voters, Mario would win easily.

I don't agree with you on most matches past Elite 8, but you're logic has made me doubt most of my pics >_>
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The guy formerly known as Das Drol Aus Tirol
Gunz IGN = Drolsmurf

i like ur first round predictions and most of second round...but anything after that is a free for all
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"A merger announcement of EA and BMW, and the new name of the company being BEAMW." -Majiteque

3% of 100000 voters would be 3000 voters, but it would be 1500 to make it a tie. with 3000 switched voters, Mario would win easily.

No, Crono won by about 6,000 last year. If you subtracted about 3000 from him and gave it to Mario, they'd be pretty much even.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

oh, ok, I misunderstood it >_>
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The guy formerly known as Das Drol Aus Tirol
Gunz IGN = Drolsmurf

Aye.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I'll do the ToC in a little whilie. It won't require too much analysis anyway. Only Link vs Cloud will.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

And now as I journey over to serious land, I said 5% was the ABSOLUTE CEILING. You know, like how you were implying that a 15% gain for Mega Man was his absolute ceiling last year? I think that 3% is the most realistic boost any of the Mario crew will get from Mario 64 DS and Paper Mario COMBINED. And I'm not even caring that much about the boost for the Tifa match, I think she'll just end up being a lot weaker than anyone expects.

Yeah, and I can recognize that the ordeal with Mega Man was both crazy and for my own personal satisfaction. I really don't see how a remake of a game that it put on a handheld is going to generate a boost for Luigi, or anyone from the Mario crew. I personally believe you're putting far too much behind that. For these characters to increase, it would require something huge. Mario isn't going to get a boost from just any release, ditto for Luigi, Yoshi, etc.

And I don't understand how you could think Tifa would be thatmuch weaker than Aeris. There's really no logical reason for something like that. I could understand a little more if you were talking about Vincent, but Tifa plays an even longer role in FFVII than Aeris. That one scene is not going to put Aeris that much higher above the rest of the FFVII cast.

You're asking for there to be a large difference between Aeris and Tifa and that just doesn't make sense. I wouldn't see any major FFVII character being that low on the list at all.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

Yeah, even if Tifa wins that match, two points isn't losing anyone the contest this year.

It isn't winning you any contests either, especially when those are basically two free points you're throwing away.

Now I'll take a look at that Mario vs. Crono match where you claimed Mario -- Lord knows how -- would win.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

I really don't see how a remake of a game that it put on a handheld is going to generate a boost for Luigi, or anyone from the Mario crew.

You realize that you are the same person who thinks Advent Children will generate enough boost for Cloud to beat Link, right? It's the same exact theory applied to a different medium.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

It isn't winning you any contests either, especially when those are basically two free points you're throwing away.

Now I'll take a look at that Mario vs. Crono match where you claimed Mario -- Lord knows how -- would win.

If the Mario crew gets a boost, can I rub it in your face? If they don't you are free to rub it in mine.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

As I said, Crono and Mario certainly have SOME fanbase overlap, people who voted Mario the first two years, but grew tired having nothing new in the way of a real Mario title so voted Crono instead. Now they have two new reasons. You may think it's inconceivable, but I don't.

Like I have said before, just another Mario game is not going to cut it. These characters do not share the fanbase overlap that you're talking about, much less a reason for 3,000 people to suddenly change their votes for no reason at all. It isn't as though there has been any reason to suddenly like Mario more than Crono based on the past year. Mario gets games all the time, this is nothing new. The fact that he gets so many does a nice job of preventing him from gaining anything from them unless they were being hyped as the greatest thing in the world.

Now, as much as you put faith into these voters switching, you have to remember that Crono gains every year. This year should be no different. For all these people playing a Mario game -- most of them Mario fans, obviously -- there are still people emulating Chrono Trigger to test it out every year. That explains why Crono gets these boosts.

Hell, just think a little further on this. In 2002, Mario should have beat Crono with upwards to 4,000 votes. The cheat votes Crono received were never taken out. In 2003, Crono pulls near dead even. In 2004, Crono shoots ahead and beats Mario with 53%. That really tells the tale, if you ask me.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

Well, you aren't going to convince me to change the pick either way, and I don't WANT to convince you to change your pick. It all seems plausible enough to me. That's really all that matters for now.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

You realize that you are the same person who thinks Advent Children will generate enough boost for Cloud to beat Link, right? It's the same exact theory applied to a different medium.

Advent Children and just another Mario title are two entirely different things. If you were talking about Mario 128, I would be agreeing with you 100%. But you're talking about a remake and another entry into the Mario RPG series. Neither of these should strike anyone as boost worthy, unless you believe it'd be around the 1% area -- even that's being optimistic.

Cloud and Sephiroth are not nearly exposed in the same manner as Mario. To be honest, Cloud could win based on anything really. Link didn't beat him by any margin that can't be overcome. Those two could go back and forth for years for no apparent reason at all.

But Advent Children will be larger than any of the Mario games you stated, especially here at GameFAQs. That what counts more than anything. Just how well the people of GameFAQs care about it.

Oh, for the record, Paper Mario 2 sold 600,000 copies. I know you stated you didn't have a good number before. Just wanted to let ya know.

If the Mario crew gets a boost, can I rub it in your face? If they don't you are free to rub it in mine.

Absolutely. ;)

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

Well, you aren't going to convince me to change the pick either way, and I don't WANT to convince you to change your pick. It all seems plausible enough to me. That's really all that matters for now.

Of course. It's no fun if we just sit here and just say "I disagree. But we'll see." Sure, we all want to win in the end, but half the fun is actually arguing over these matches.

Honestly, I know both of us aren't changing our minds based on what the other says unless something was brought up that we didn't realize before.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire

Well, got a bunch of questions.

Adept_Of_Aiur, just out of interest, do you still have your old MasterMage119 account, or did you get banned on that account?

yoblazer: I would be very interested to know what are the main descrepancies in your bracket compared to Aiur's. The views of a past champion should carry considerable weight :)

Forgive me if I have apparently been living under a rock, but when did Kirby's Canvas Curse become the most critically acclaimed and best-selling game on the DS?

Also, someone asked how many copies SM64DS has shifted in Europe. I know for a fact the total was 250,000 at the end of March 2005; however despite a strong launch sales of both the DS and SM64DS have tailed off considerably since then. "Somewhat disappointing" was how one site described it.

I see Paper Mario frequently recieves glowing praise from the board populace. Exactly how good is it in your opinions? Would you rank it among the top 5 games on the GC? It is one of those games which I have felt looks fun but never felt compelled to buy it. I can't distinguish whether it's an adventure, RPG or platformer.
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GT: Vampiresoul

Cloud and Sephiroth are not nearly exposed in the same manner as Mario. To be honest, Cloud could win based on anything really. Link didn't beat him by any margin that can't be overcome. Those two could go back and forth for years for no apparent reason at all.

Well, I think that Advdent Children will work for Cloud and Sephiroth (it won't be out in time to actually matter for Tifa or Vincent), and I think PM2 and M64DS will work for Mario.
Oh, for the record, Paper Mario 2 sold 600,000 copies. I know you stated you didn't have a good number before. Just wanted to let ya know.

Yeah, I figured it was about 500,000.


Of course. It's no fun if we just sit here and just say "I disagree. But we'll see." Sure, we all want to win in the end, but half the fun is actually arguing over these matches.

Honestly, I know both of us aren't changing our minds based on what the other says unless something was brought up that we didn't realize before.

True, true. ^_^

Adept_Of_Aiur, just out of interest, do you still have your old MasterMage119 account, or did you get banned on that account?

Nope, I suicided it a while back.

Forgive me if I have apparently been living under a rock, but when did Kirby's Canvas Curse become the most critically acclaimed and best-selling game on the DS?

It's not the best selling, but it became the highest reviewed when it came out.


I see Paper Mario frequently recieves glowing praise from the board populace. Exactly how good is it in your opinions? Would you rank it among the top 5 games on the GC? It is one of those games which I have felt looks fun but never felt compelled to buy it. I can't distinguish whether it's an adventure, RPG or platformer.

It's an RPG and I haven't played it.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Can someone explain why Lloyd is such a lock? I'm not doubting or questioning the pick, in fact I believe it 100% with all the support it got, but I don't understand why. I don't know anything about the character so I just want some light shed on the situation. Thanks.

Also, would Ness be considered a suicide pick?

Can someone explain why Lloyd is such a lock? I'm not doubting or questioning the pick, in fact I believe it 100% with all the support it got, but I don't understand why. I don't know anything about the character so I just want some light shed on the situation. Thanks.

Lloyd is from the same game as Mithos, a character who did better than Wesker this spring. Unless the main character in ToS is weaker than the villain (doubtful), Lloyd wins.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

From: ShadowTheChog | Posted: 7/1/2005 1:57:32 PM | Message Detail | #1710
Can someone explain why Lloyd is such a lock? I'm not doubting or questioning the pick, in fact I believe it 100% with all the support it got, but I don't understand why. I don't know anything about the character so I just want some light shed on the situation. Thanks.

Over Wesker? Mithos, a character from the same game, did better on Kefka than Wesker did. Now, if you take Lloyd, the main character from that game, he only can do better than Mithos...

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I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.

Mario winning would make be happy, my bracket would be destroyed, but it would make me happy.
---
As much as I want to put something original about the Guru Contest here, I can't, because Yoblazer owned me way too hard.

Tournament of Champions Match 1: Link vs Cloud

Projected winner: Cloud

That's right, Cloud. I agree with Heroic Mario on the issue of Advent Children helping. If it was out right now, I'd have Vincent over Dante and Tifa over Luigi. As it is, the movie won't be out in time to help either of those, but it will be out in time to help Cloud. I am predicting this match with the same overlapping fanbase theory utilized in my Mario vs Crono prediction. This time, the gap is smaller, and Cloud should be able to easily re-convert some of the borderline fans. The only counter-argument I can see for this is Twilight Princess hype. Well, I don't buy into hype being that helpful. The alternating cycle of Link and Cloud will continue this year.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Tournament of Champions Match 2: Sephiroth vs Mario

Projected winner: Sephiroth

I think Mario will be stronger this year, but not THAT much stronger. Sephiroth is still way out of reach. So the silver haired villain wins.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Tournament of Champions Final Match: Cloud vs Sephiroth

Projected winner: Cloud

And here we have the anti-climatic final. Cloud beats Sephiroth as usual. If Link gets here instead, he wins.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Final Commentary

Overall, this bracket was excellently put together by Ceej, and very few opportunties for close matches were missed, though there were a few. This is probably the most unpredictable bracket we've had since 2002, and that's a good thing. There are a good four different choices to take for champion this year as opposed to the typical two, although in the end it will all come down to the same ultimate champions. Still, the Tournament of Champions was a stroke of brilliance by CJayC, allowing more possible champions yet not exacctly excluding previous winners. I don't expect to win this year, and all I care about is maintaining my track record of a perfect first round. Still, there is always the possibility that I could win, and even if I lose, Mario winning this contest would make me extremely happy. I'm looking forward to the contest and kind of wish we didn't get so much time for predicting. Thanks for reading!
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I've been almost 100% with you until Cloud over Link, I doubt it'll happen. You may not buy into the hype but many do and this title will likely be gc's best and i'm pretty sure without this game link would have a good boost with minish cap.
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My wang>all

meh, due to this topic I have changed some of my matches, but am still a bit undecisive on 3 of the ones I've changed. Some I stayed with and the rest were what I picked in the first place. To me these are very tough and I know I wont in this year. Also I have Sephy for the Champs.
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This tank alone weighs 19 tons, that's like maybe...4 or 5 X-Box's?---Adam Sessler/X-Play
www.ocremix.org PWNS!!!! www.vgmix.com PWNS...TOO!

I'm honestly surprised people changed matches due to this topic. ^_^;;
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

you shouldn't be, you did an awesome job
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My wang>all

Thanks. :D
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

MM, very nice analyses, even though I disagree on some matches.
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Spring Contest 2005 - 68/80 points
"Not even death can save you from me" - Diablo

Thank you.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I'd just like to point out one thing...EVERY Super Mario Advance title sold better than SM64DS, and Paper Mario 1 sold better than PM2. Now, I'm just not seeing why 64DS would cause a boost where these other games didn't, unless you believe that they've been causing Mario to go up every year in the past.

Nice analysis MasterMage, I actually agree on Luigi>Tifa, but disagree on Sonic v Megaman, Alucard v. Sora, Ocelot v. Yoshi (though I'm thinking of changing this one), Kirby v Tidus, Bowser v. Snake, and Magus v Dante (thinking of changing this too)
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Favorite Teams/Drivers: NY Mets, NY Jets, NY Isles, Georgia Tech and Rutgers, Jeff Burton and Kurt Busch

I want to thank you guys for all of the positive feedback.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

You lost all credibility when you chose Luigi over Tifa. That is brutal and you're throwing points right there. That match is seriously a no brainer.

However, you earned back some credibility when you wisely chose Cloud over Link. Too many Link fanboys hang on the little guy's nuts. After 2002, they didn't learn and set themselves up for a shocking disappointment when elf boy got punched in the face by psycho boy and never got back up.

I looked over Link's dominant performance in 2002 and wondered what could result in a loss really.

Anti repeat champion factor.

Most of the people I've talked to on this site openly stated they don't like seeing a character win twice in a row. The change in votes to swing the tide is minimal compared to the total votes. Link lost to Cloud, preventing a repeat. Cloud lost to Link a year later, preventing a repeat. 2 for 2. It'll go 3 for 3. The difference in votes between them is too small for it not to make a difference. Cloud doesn't need AC to beat Link. That will only serve as a catalyst.

Cloud wins this year. Link wins next year.

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Human beings are like rabbits: they're totally clueless, wander around aimlessly and reproduce like mad.

<3 MM.

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It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~

About your Samus/Mario match...

I can't believe no ones said this already, but you're putting so much stock into how well Mario 64 DS sold on the DS, you seem to be forgetting that a FREE demo of Metroid Prime Hunters came along with every single DS sold!! That completley nulifies the SM64DSF you're relying on! That, and your really underestimating the FF7 characters.

Other than that, nice bracket, I have almost all the same, and a terrific analysis.
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Words aren't the only thing that tell people what you're thinking...
- Tifa Lockheart, Final Fantasy VII

Good job on making this. I was getting worried I was the only person in existence who had kirby over Tidus >_>.
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My only complaint is similar to brainstrucks. You think the DS will have a decent effect on the strength of kirby and mario & company, but don't factor that into Samus. Metroid hunters was released on every single DS from DS launch until the point where it had sold a hell of a lot of copies (I'm not quite sure how many came with the metroid hunters demo, but I know it was in the seven digits).
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
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But the hunters demo was just a demo. Sure, it COULD help... but I don't want to think about how much a demo really matters... Maybe I'm being stupid not worrying about it, but I can't see the demo doing very much.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

elf boy got punched in the face by psycho boy and never got back up.

Right, 2004 when Cloud absolutely killed Link, despite Link looking as if he was on 'roids.
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VOTE*~*~Lloyd Irving, Diablo, Vincent Valentine and Alucard in the Sc2k5!~*~*

The only thing about that is that it has a very good multiplayer despite being just a demo. Sure it probably won't have the effect of an actual game, but I still think it will do a bit to keep her popularity, and possibly increase it. She also had metroid prime two released since the latest contest. Sure it's sales weren't the greatest in the world, but they were still decent for a metroid game. It sold what, half a million copies, or am I just way off base here?
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
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Right, 2004 when Cloud absolutely killed Link, despite Link looking as if he was on 'roids.

My statement was referring to Link's inability to pull back from a defecit in 2003, thus losing to Cloud.

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Human beings are like rabbits: they're totally clueless, wander around aimlessly and reproduce like mad.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Oh, sorry. I forgot "</sarcasm>."
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VOTE*~*~Lloyd Irving, Diablo, Vincent Valentine and Alucard in the Sc2k5!~*~*

And I know what you were referring to, but "he never got back up"? I don't think so.
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VOTE*~*~Lloyd Irving, Diablo, Vincent Valentine and Alucard in the Sc2k5!~*~*

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

It appears I need my sarcasm detector adjusted.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
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And I know what you were referring to, but "he never got back up"? I don't think so.

To have gotten back up would mean that he would have taken the lead, which didn't happen.

The metaphor sticks. Link got punched in the face (Cloud took the lead) and never got back up (never took the lead from him).

Is there anything else you need me to clear up for you?

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Human beings are like rabbits: they're totally clueless, wander around aimlessly and reproduce like mad.

*yawn*
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

On a random point, EGM rated the current state of Metroid Prime: Hunters as "Terrible".
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Trainer: Clinkeroth, do mega fanboy attack!
Clinkeroth: CLINKEROTH! ~Pibb of Truth

Really? Wow.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119