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Summer 2004 Contest
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:51:43 AM | Message Detail
Hyrule Round 1: (1)Link vs (16)CATS

(1)Link - 72344 (87.83%)
(16)CATS - 10025 (12.17%)
Total Votes - 82369
Vote Difference - 62319
Prediction Percentage - 98.79%
Match Picture - http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b01.jpg

With the Spring Contest still fresh in everyone's mind, we barely had any break from the contest setting whatsoever. CJayC waited until August 1st to start the Summer 2004 Contest, but nominations for the contest were open a full month and a half ahead of time. We had all of two weeks of offseason, but it was little more than a breath of air than it was an offseason.

This year's Summer Contest was set up different than in the past in that instead of the four cardinal directions being the names of the divisions, CJayC decided to name the divisions after their 1 seeds. It was a good idea on paper, but it wound up not giving us a very good bracket. With named divisions come characters within the divisions based off of that name, and in the end you're left with a disguised company-based bracket. It made for a very boring contest featuring a ton of Same Fanbase Factor matchups that look good on paper, but in reality lead to nothing more than predictability as we got thing rolling along.

In the first match of the contest, we saw Link pitted against CATS. CJayC flat-out told us that CATS was nothing more than a joke character, as well as LinkFodder, but appeased our appetite for the little guy by putting him in the contest anyway. Unfortunately for us, a glitched poll early in the match made us unable to see where all of the first votes went in the match. We were unable to see whether or not CATS got his standard early lead, and when the dust settled, Link was well on his way to a blowout win against the mistranslated favorite son of the CATS Army.

What was truly impoprtant about this match was that Link and Cloud now had a common opponent:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1313

Link wound up doing better against CATS than Cloud did by nearly a full percent, and the Extrapolated Statistics formula projected that Link could defeat Cloud's 2003 self with around 53% of the vote after this match. I'm not the biggest fan of set statistics trying to judge the transitivity -- or lack thereof -- among human opinion, but one quick look at the results of the finals shows that the Extrapolated Standing (Xst, for short) formula does work in cases where voting patterns remain static.

But still, in defense of Cloud, we were only one poll into the contest. Unfortunately, the "wait until next round before deciding where Link truly stands" philosophy was used by Cloud defenders throughout the contest, despite Link doing better than expected in every single one of his matches.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:52:29 AM | Message Detail
*tag*
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:52:44 AM | Message Detail
second post?
---
Matias mastered Learning!
Poor FFTA, everyone hates you save me...
From: Skularis | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:54:03 AM | Message Detail
Ah heeeeeell yeah. The best part about the contest ending.
---
http://img32.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img32&image=GoPlanet.jpg
Forceful Dragon pwned you all!!!
From: Pavel Nedved | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:54:07 AM | Message Detail
^.^

Yay
---
(•• ) ( ••) (•• ) ( ••) ( ••) (•• )
CAKE CAKE CAKE CAKE CAKE CAKE
From: Undercooked Sausage | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:54:22 AM | Message Detail
tagz0red
---
The best dream I ever had was when I was Shigeru Miyamoto's Wife.
From: xp1337 | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:54:30 AM | Message Detail
^_^

I enjoyed reading your post-analysis of the spring contest, particularly SC/Halo and SC/WW.

</Tag>
---
xp1337:
SC2k4 (151/160) Link vs. Cloud
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:54:38 AM | Message Detail
Ulti, you freakin rule!
---
Man is equally incapable of seeing the nothingness from which he emerges and the infinity in which he is engulfed. -Blaise Pascal
From: Agent M | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:54:58 AM | Message Detail
I've been waiting for this, I didn't expect it so soon.

Yay!

Tag.
---
Current score: 147/160 Next match: Cloud. Go Link!!!
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:55:01 AM | Message Detail
O_O

Thank you!
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:55:31 AM | Message Detail
Huzzah!
---
"We ask for your strength...Thee who fear'eth the night and stand 'gainst the darkness." ~ Frog
http://img11.exs.cx/img11/5808/MatchPic.jpg
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:55:40 AM | Message Detail
Heh, thanks guys =)

Let me get started on the next match here...
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:56:06 AM | Message Detail
OMG WTF ULTI TOPIC

*orgasms*

*dies*
---
BtT: 3:48.46 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
I keep getting sig'd for the weirdest things lately - StW
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 10/3/2004 11:56:37 AM | Message Detail
Er... >_>

Seriously, this should be great.
---
BtT: 3:48.46 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
I keep getting sig'd for the weirdest things lately - StW
From: Figgy20000 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:03:41 PM | Message Detail
Bump.
From: goku z | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:06:20 PM | Message Detail
*poke*
---
SC2K4 Score: 110/120 Next Tough Pick: Link over Sep...Cloud.
CATS is more well-developed than Cloud. ~ A very wise man, UltarEmpire.
From: Figgy20000 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:06:56 PM | Message Detail
*stomp*
From: Steinershocker | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:10:14 PM | Message Detail
*sexes the topic*
---
Because you don't know doesn't mean I don't know. - Heroic Mario
Lettuce Kefka > all
From: finalbowser | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:11:37 PM | Message Detail
silly Ulti. CATS actually won, but the hand of Cjay struck it down.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v359/finalbowser/CATSWINS.jpg

---
Frog has it in the bag. Which I have so gladly titled as the "stfu" bag. - Red13n
From: Buzzup | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:13:36 PM | Message Detail
Tag
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:14:34 PM | Message Detail
Tag
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:15:03 PM | Message Detail
I think Ulti is just sitting there and laughing at us waiting for his next post. ;_;
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: WiggumFan267 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:15:14 PM | Message Detail
ULTI!!!!!!! ^_^
---
Sometimes the shortest posts are among the best ones. ^.^ ~kawaiifan
Final Pick/Vote: LINK! 149/160
From: wg64Z | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:16:27 PM | Message Detail
tagz
---
Score:154/160 Todays Pick: Cloud... :(
"Say hello to my little friend"
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:19:19 PM | Message Detail
Hyrule Round 1: (8)Ganondorf vs (9)Alucard

(8)Ganondorf - 50045 (57.16%)
(9)Alucard - 37512 (42.84%)
Total Votes - 87557
Vote Difference - 12533
Prediction Percentage - 63.02%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b02.jpg

I won't get to do this for the rest of the contest, so excuse me while I rant about how great Alucard is. Until very recently, I never played Super Metroid. I wound up playing Symphony of the Night first, and that game left me nothing short of breathless. The final song sucked and the voice acting wasn't much better, but everything else about that game was absolutely flawless. I didn't know it at the time, but the big reason why the game was so amazing was that Symphony of the Night took everything that Super Metroid did and improved on it to the higest degree. The map is easier to use, the bosses are colossal, the weapons are superb, the special skills and spells are absolutely brilliant, and Symphony of the Night even managed to incorporate elements from fighting and RPG genres unto itself. The button combinations to pull off the spells are directly from the fighting genre, and Alucard getting experience points, level ups, and a myriad of items and subweapons for killing enemies are directly from the RPG genre.

And guess what? After you conquer the first castle, the entire thing gets flipped upside down and you get to do it all over again. Not only that, but you get to hear one of the single greatest gaming tracks of all time, Final Toccata, playing on loop for a great deal of the Inverted Castle. Symphona of the Night is brilliant, and the game that it was based upon, Super Metroid, isn't too bad either. I couldn't stand Super Metroid on my first play, but have since fallen in love with the game, as well as Samus, after a few replays. The only complaint I have with the pure gameplay of Symphony of the Night is the lack of sequence breaking. It is nearly impossible to reach certain areas without certain items in that game, whereas Super Metroid allows you to go into areas you aren't supposed to reach with relative ease after enough practice.

With that out of the way, it pleases me to see Alucard do better than he was expected to in this match. There was a small chance to see Link vs Ganondorf last year, but Magus wound up putting an end to all of that after a fierce battle with the King of Evil. This year, the trick to finally pitting Link and Ganondorf together in a poll was to vastly underseed both Ganondorf and Alucard and throw them in an 8-9 match when they should be going at it in a 3-6 match. Regardless, neither one of these characters got what they deserved from the seeding in this contest. They had a decent match that challenged the Xsts by a few percentage points, but in the end, it's fairly obvious that this match was placed where it was in the bracket so that we would be able to see a Link vs Ganondorf affair. I personally don't like that idea all that much, because while such a match could look good on paper, people who analyse a lot of contest data know that Same Fanbase Factor matchups (SFF, for short) usually yield blowouts to the highest degree, and even SFF matches that are hard to call are rarely close enough to be exciting after the first couple of hours in the poll.

Both Alucard and Ganondorf did well in their time in the sun, but with Link looming right above their heads, it was all for naught. The thing that really stands out here is the prediction percentage. As powerful as the Zelda franchise is, it is clear that people looked at past results (and Alucard's two Sweet 16 appearances) when deciding who to go with in this match.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: badboyfg | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:19:55 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
I lost to Zylo the wolf in a sig bet, and all I got was this stupid signature.
From: Yerond | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:22:18 PM | Message Detail
oh the tagness.
---
"when your in wal-mart, your reminded how humanity has failed."- Xyllon
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:25:55 PM | Message Detail
Excellent. Tag.
---
I'd much rather be elitist than an idiot with a misconception that generalizes an entire board.~Bender1616
ZSB [aX]
From: Yugiohdude | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:26:03 PM | Message Detail
Ulti's analysis is here. w00t!

*tag*

*waits for Frog/LS and Frog/MC matches*
---
SC2K4 Score: 155/160 next pick: Link! Finally a legend!
"My favorite pokemin is Bulbablax" - hidois
From: Answer C | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:26:21 PM | Message Detail
tag'D
---
Is lcadwallader
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:27:20 PM | Message Detail
YES!!!

*tag*
---
"You take outside too seriously. Its not like you're gonna die if you don't go outside. Play a video game or something." - Princess Anri
From: sillybulanston | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:27:58 PM | Message Detail
Tag.
---
Oh I guarantee Sonic will win, if Samus wins, I will close my account. -Funny McScryb
From: the7joker7 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:28:30 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
SC2K4 score: Matches: 56/63. Points: 152/192
From: Aoshi47 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:28:38 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
"How about a little less questions and a little more shut the hell up." Brian from Family Guy
From: NewLib | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:28:59 PM | Message Detail
tag
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:29:01 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
SC2k4 Winner: Link
Status: 150/160 Next Pick: Link
From: irriadin | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:29:38 PM | Message Detail
Nice, can't wait to read the rest of this!
---
*space waiting to be filled by 2004 guru contest winner*
"I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time.
From: Tai | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:29:47 PM | Message Detail
The thing that really stands out here is the prediction percentage. As powerful as the Zelda franchise is, it is clear that people looked at past results (and Alucard's two Sweet 16 appearances) when deciding who to go with in this match.

Yeah. I had Alucard in my bracket in a while because of that. Then, I looked at the BOP, and promptly changed to Ganondarf. I'm so glad I didn't lose a point over a match like that >_>'

Oh, and keep up the good work. :-)
---
Fourth topic of the [This message was deleted by a GameFAQs moderator] petition. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=16397550 (1220 Signs!)
From: Turbo Kirby | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:36:30 PM | Message Detail
*posts*
---
"You can have anything you want! Toys, video games, Canada..." - WuYa
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:43:03 PM | Message Detail
Hyrule Round 1: (5)Yoshi vs (12)Ryo Hazuki

(5)Yoshi - 60057 (76.4%)
(12)Ryo Hazuki - 18551 (23.6%)
Total Votes - 78608
Vote Difference - 41506
Prediction Percentage - 85.16%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b03.jpg

This match barely needs any thought put into it. Shemnue, and Ryo Hazuki along with it, have become little more than fodder in every contest. Just look at the results. Ryo Hazuki may have tripled Guybrush Threepwood back in 2002, but it's nothing but downhill from here. We was killed by Lara Croft, he was killed by Dante last year, his game was killed by FFX in the spring, and now he has been killed by Yoshi. I like Yoshi and all, but he isn't all that strong when compared to a lot of other Nintendo characters. When you can allow Yoshi to get 76% on you, it's time to leave the contest in favor of someone else. Sadly, it seems that Shenmue has enough of a fanbase to constantly get Ryo Hazuki in the field, and subsequently killed by characters in the middle of the pack, year after year. Yoshi is good, but he is not good to the point of being able to get 76% on a consistent basis against anyone of decent strength.

But trust me, I'm not undermining Yoshi in the least. Yoshi's Island is one of my favorite games, but aside from that, I can't think of how he has managed to stay as popular as he has for so long. Yoshi's Story was atrocious, and aside from good appearances in party games (Super Smash Brothers, Mario Kart, etc.), he has done very little since Yoshi's Island. For that reason, Yoshi scoring 76% on anyone is a good sign that the loser of such a match needs to go.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: Icehawk | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:45:50 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:46:23 PM | Message Detail
Yeah. I had Alucard in my bracket in a while because of that. Then, I looked at the BOP, and promptly changed to Ganondarf. I'm so glad I didn't lose a point over a match like that >_>'

As good an idea as that is, the BOP was very misleading in a couple of cases. Frog and Ryu Hayabusa are the notable exceptions. Both of them were bigger BOP upsets than Halo, if I recall.

Oh, and keep up the good work. :-)

Thxthx =)
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: Shivan Reincarnated | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:47:17 PM | Message Detail
Yay!
---
The undisputed master of the mountains of Shiv
From: greatone10 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:47:17 PM | Message Detail
*tag*
---
BertTheOne | Contest Score: Too Damn Low
Lets sing along with our friends from Disney and Square-Enix.
From: Talha | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:49:46 PM | Message Detail
Tag!
---
"I saw sex clubs all throughout Washington D.C"-My friend
"Oh..so you did see the White House!"-Me
From: Ma Chao the Wanderer | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:49:55 PM | Message Detail
Oh noes, this topic will reach 500 before Ulti is past round 1 0_o

And oh yeah TAG!

---
*Smurf*
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:50:31 PM | Message Detail
As good an idea as that is, the BOP was very misleading in a couple of cases. Frog and Ryu Hayabusa are the notable exceptions. Both of them were bigger BOP upsets than Halo, if I recall.

Just Ryu H. The BOP had Frog winning his first two matches. Or did you mean that there ws a misleadingly large amount of support for Frog depsite how close the matches would turn out.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: xecn | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:53:02 PM | Message Detail
You've been TAGG'D
---
Archduke Franz Ferdinand, you got SERB'D - Blind Azathoth
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:54:11 PM | Message Detail
Just Ryu H. The BOP had Frog winning his first two matches. Or did you mean that there ws a misleadingly large amount of support for Frog depsite how close the matches would turn out.

I meant misleading in terms of which character the BOP supported. Both Frog and Ryu H were expected to own the first two rounds.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:55:38 PM | Message Detail
I have some cleaning to do. Be back in around 30-60 minutes or so, which should give everyone more than enough time to tag and such.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
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Summer 2004 Contest
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: C0mplet0 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:55:41 PM | Message Detail
tag

---
Summer Contest Points: 137/144
You're at your best when you've got the guns tilted 180 degrees.
From: JonesSodaMaster 2 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:57:04 PM | Message Detail
Pie
---
Supporter of Bomberman to win the Summer Contest 2004. NOTE: I am both male and female.
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 10/3/2004 12:58:30 PM | Message Detail
What is the BOP? I haven't heard of it. O_o
From: Alanna82 | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:00:20 PM | Message Detail
*tag* Keep up the good work Ulti.
---
Winner of Leebo's save the users tournament.
Chrono Cross points: 160
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:00:53 PM | Message Detail
Meh. The first few matches of analysis have been good, but I just know I'm going to puke once Ulti gets around to the Snake-bashing.

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: zelda00oT | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:01:07 PM | Message Detail
Definately tagging this one.
---
Don't worry. Catholic school girls are the dirtiest. They know more positions than Paris Hilton and John Kerry combined! >.>-Stealth Snake Zero
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:02:11 PM | Message Detail
Tagy
---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Inviso | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:03:40 PM | Message Detail
*just figured out why people tag thing*
---
Summer Contest Score: 148/160 Current Pick: Cloud over Link
From: octoinky | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:17:05 PM | Message Detail
keep this on the front page
---
Score: 91/96
Link, Megaman, Cloud, Samus / Link, Cloud / Cloud
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:19:04 PM | Message Detail
What is the BOP? I haven't heard of it. O_o

Slowflake's Board Odds Project. Basically, you submit your bracket to him and he compiles all the brackets he received to determine favorites of the brackets he received.
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: shin ramza | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:20:33 PM | Message Detail
*tag*

Best topic of any contest season, for sure.
---
"How many DBZers does it take to screw in a light bulb? One, but it takes 12 episodes."
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:23:46 PM | Message Detail
Oh, duh. I know what THAT is, but I didn't think of it when it was abbreviated that way for some reason. Thanks. XD

*tag in disguise, although I usually just use topic search*

I love this topic. <3
From: Pokewars | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:28:01 PM | Message Detail
*Tag*
---
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
From: CidGregor | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:33:54 PM | Message Detail
Ah, the post-contest analysis. Love reading these things. I can still remember the hooplah of the SC/Halo analysis earlier this year...damn, that thing was a work of art. Good to see this has become a nice little tradition here at GameFAQS now. Nice job, Ulti, and keep up the good work.
---
"Spira is full of death...only SIN is reborn, and then only to bring more death. It is a cycle of death, spiraling endlessly."- Auron
From: LiteYear | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:39:18 PM | Message Detail
*tags topic*

---
The Americans spent $12 billion dollars developing a pen that would work in outer space.
The Russians used a pencil.
From: Mana Excalibur | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:41:04 PM | Message Detail
TAGS - Ulti is a GODD.
---
Philadelphia Eagles 3-0 - #2 in ESPN's Power Rankings
Next Victim: Chicago Bears 10/3 // McNabb and TO > all
From: jkmill550 | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:42:52 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
Chicken: "The world's gonna end! It's Y2K!" "Y..2...K? Are you selling chicken or sex jelly?!" Peter Griffin
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:43:23 PM | Message Detail
*tag*

---
Visit board 984, where having an opinion means you're a blind, ignorant fanboy, and a troll!
From: BrainSalad23 | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:43:25 PM | Message Detail
The Amazing Giants
From: fallenstar | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:44:59 PM | Message Detail
tag
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:45:22 PM | Message Detail
*waits patiently for the next analysis*

By the way Ulti, I just got back from home...and we did indeed get Champions Of Norrath; my parents are goin' to SC Wednesday to visit him, and they're gonna give it to him then. Thanks again.
---
I am teh suxx0rz. PWN'D by a n00b.
~courtesy of mr wednesday
From: The Destoyer | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:50:03 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
SC2k4 points: 155/160
My Winner of the Summer Contest: Cloud
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:52:43 PM | Message Detail
Wow, PCA time!

*insert 10 lines of sucking up to Ulti here*

Makes me think, I gotta complete that BOP sheet.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 152/160 - Matches: 58/62 - Rank: 00414/33221 - Final 4: LINK, Megaman, CLOUD, Samus
From: GalacticMage777 | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:53:56 PM | Message Detail
Trimensionally Creating Accentuation...
---
.diputs ,thgir ot tfel morf daer ot desoppus er'uoY
My FFT Sequel Game Script: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=4838
From: swirldude | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:56:48 PM | Message Detail
Tag
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/3/2004 1:59:02 PM | Message Detail
Unfortunately, the "wait until next round before deciding where Link truly stands" philosophy was used by Cloud defenders throughout the contest, despite Link doing better than expected in every single one of his matches.

Please, Ulti, you act as if you're not among those. =p
---
SC2K4 ~ 60/62 ~ 155/160
Prince Reva, you just want Kerry to win because he supports *** marriage. ~BEthstardust
From: Seraphim Epsilon | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:00:11 PM | Message Detail
TAG
---
RIP Flamestar01 - January 30, 2004
Current Signature Variable:
Board 17313
From: redline15 | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:00:34 PM | Message Detail
damn.
with all these tags, how can this thread not be interesting?
---
redline15: blasting off at the speed of light
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:03:57 PM | Message Detail
Oh yeah, and consider this a tag.
---
SC2K4 ~ 60/62 ~ 155/160
Prince Reva, you just want Kerry to win because he supports *** marriage. ~BEthstardust
From: Full Metal Kirby | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:10:29 PM | Message Detail
Whoo! Ulti!

*poorly disguised tag*
---
Friend: Is that Snorlax on fire?
Me (drawing): No, it's Snorlax on crack. And on fire.
From: Magus784 | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:12:44 PM | Message Detail
Tag
---
SC2K4 Points 154/160
Winner:Link
From: MasterMage119 | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:14:32 PM | Message Detail
Why do people tag when they could just as easily search for the word post....
---
I bow down to smitelf, Queen ***** of the Universe. Her intelligence, wit, and sexiness have consume’d me.
From: Roxxorz | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:15:38 PM | Message Detail
Ulti's an alright guy
---
RoXxOrZ!
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:16:01 PM | Message Detail
Well, not everyone has topic search... but I never really understood it either. It's usually more work to wade through my active messages to find this anyway. XP

And then everyone fills up the entire topic with tags, and he has to make a new topic, and then THAT gets filled up with tags...
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:16:53 PM | Message Detail
Shadowdude: I gave up on Cloud after Link killed Mega Man. I was still hoping Cloud could win, but hope is all it was. I admit that.

By the way Ulti, I just got back from home...and we did indeed get Champions Of Norrath; my parents are goin' to SC Wednesday to visit him, and they're gonna give it to him then. Thanks again.

Good, I was hoping that everything worked out well.

I just have to go dust off a couple more things and put all my sutff back (I just cleaned and dusted my entire apartment). Give me a few more minutes, and I'll get to writing again.

And yes, Slowflake. Get off your lazy rump and go finish that spreadhseet <3
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: Wlokos | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:19:05 PM | Message Detail
Awesome so far.
---
TROY'S MIDDLE NAME IS ELLIOT
~Wlokos
From: Wild Eagle | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:19:50 PM | Message Detail
interesting
---
It's not kool to hate Linkin Park.
It's just the only logical thing to do. - MasterTonberry
From: plasmabeam | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:20:29 PM | Message Detail
tag'd

---
Ben Franklin said it best: "The only things certain in life are death, taxes, and Chris Rix blowing the Miami game" - mario incandenza
From: A Hogasm IN POG FORM | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:43:04 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
Remember Dr T? Now he's back, in POG FORM!
You have the best username I have ever seen. Make love to me.-Bloofy Leaderboard Rank: 21
From: Thalandor46 | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:47:38 PM | Message Detail
t to the ag
---
There are 3 types of people in this world. Those who can count, and those who can't
My SC2K4 Bracket: http://www.geocities.com/sbslyrics/SC2K4.txt
From: Heroic Metool | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:51:57 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
"Samba is the father of pleasure,
samba is the child of pain"
From: briankoenig03 | Posted: 10/3/2004 2:54:28 PM | Message Detail
Tags Are Greatest
---
Games you should check out : Tales of Symphonia (GC), Phantom Brave (PS2), Star Ocean: TEOT (PS2) Skies of Arcadia Legends (GC), Arc the Lad: TOTS (PS2)
From: Silverflame | Posted: 10/3/2004 3:06:22 PM | Message Detail
YAY! Tag.

---
M is for Money. Money is the root of all evil in the world. Money causes your parents to fight. You should take your parent's money and mail it to... ME!
From: Cybat | Posted: 10/3/2004 3:07:35 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
I like long walks. Especially when they're taken by people who annoy me.
From: BDR1985 | Posted: 10/3/2004 3:07:45 PM | Message Detail
Might as well hang on to this..
---
Great plan, David [Hasselhoff]. Telling her she's a freak will get you into her pants for sure.
-www.encyclopediaobscura.com
From: Starwind40k | Posted: 10/3/2004 3:30:18 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
Dyslexics of the world UNTIE!
From: Garbling | Posted: 10/3/2004 4:13:17 PM | Message Detail
Good work. Keep it up.
---
Bling bling yo!
From: chaos knight | Posted: 10/3/2004 4:19:31 PM | Message Detail
*tags*
---
Chaos Knight-Cerebral Insomniac of the CoS
summoner? wtf! summoner=Yuna Taru=midgit GaryPayton LA
From: NawatApex | Posted: 10/3/2004 4:34:00 PM | Message Detail
*karma post
---
And Here we have a building made entirely out of 13th floors!
From: swirldude | Posted: 10/3/2004 5:31:38 PM | Message Detail
100 posts in only 3 matches o_o
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush. ~SuperLuigiBros
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Summer 2004 Contest
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: sidharta | Posted: 10/3/2004 5:59:01 PM | Message Detail
Nice analisys Ulti, please keep up the good work!!

---
October 3rd, 2004: Finally, the time of truth is at hand:
The Savior of Midgar (Cloud) vs. The Champion of Hyrule (Link).
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:07:33 PM | Message Detail
Sorry about the delay. I was busy cleaning my house, eating dinner, and figuring out Xst caluclations for myself. It may sound odd, but I have yet to do any of them on my own.

Anyhoo, let's get this ball rolling again.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: SurfingVaporeon | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:11:36 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
QUEM TUNGΤ MINHA COCA!
From: Yankees | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:15:04 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
http://www.zeuslegacy.co.uk/register.php?ref=2054 -Fun RPG
From: Heroic Metool | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:16:49 PM | Message Detail
Tag. Keep up good work ^_^
---
"Samba is the father of pleasure,
samba is the child of pain"
From: BA007 | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:23:16 PM | Message Detail
tag

---
Games like DOA Extreme Beach Volleyaball make Nintendo look mature-Some Gamefaqs user I can't remember the name of
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:23:42 PM | Message Detail
Heh. I was scared that Cloud would win today. Yeah I'm a dumbass. To be scared about Cloud today yet not to be scared about Samus vs Cloud... oh wait that match was obvious from the beginning ;P
---
SC2K4 ~ 60/62 ~ 155/160
Prince Reva, you just want Kerry to win because he supports *** marriage. ~BEthstardust
From: GalacticMage777 | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:29:04 PM | Message Detail
Why isn't the ball rolling? WHY?
---
.diputs ,thgir ot tfel morf daer ot desoppus er'uoY
My FFT Sequel Game Script: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=4838
From: Crono801 | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:29:06 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
SC2k4: 141/144 (R1: Shadow, Viewtiful Joe, Jill).
Today's Pick: Cloud
From: Tjian | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:41:15 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.
From: Tainted CHAOS | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:41:42 PM | Message Detail
tagilationalistion

---
Proud member of The Link Army...(even though I'm betting against him).
From: Faia Deflagratio | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:43:15 PM | Message Detail
Tag.

---
I am Lucid Faia's alternate account.
Number Of Days I Haven't Had To Deal With An Idiot: 2
From: fernan1234 | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:49:56 PM | Message Detail
TAG

---
We demand more fan service! Every eva episode teaser promised more and never delivered. Damn you Anno! - "alien nine" in the GameFaqs board
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:53:36 PM | Message Detail
Hyrule Round 1: (4)Luigi vs (13)Pac Man

(4)Luigi - 51008 (67.73%)
(13)Pac Man - 24299 (32.27%)
Total Votes - 75307
Vote Difference - 26709
Prediction Percentage - 68.69%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b04.jpg

I've been trying to figure out the Xst formula and how to apply it for the last hour or so, so let me see if I can't plug in the numbers correctly based upon 2003 numbers and RPGuy's formula:

[(Pac Man vs Cloud)(Luigi vs Cloud)] * 50 = Pac Man vs Luigi
[(15.27%)/(24.43%)] * 50 = 31.25%

Assuming I did that correctly, I'm really confused as to why there was such a surprise during the actual match between Luigi and Pac Man. Pac Man did around what he was expected to do. If you ask me, the match was about as ho-hum as a match could get; both characters did exactly what they were supposed to do. The only thing to be drawn from this match would be that Luigi technically underperformed, and given that his hyped second round match with Yoshi was right around the corner, any weakness in the armor could have been disasterous for him. I maintained that Luigi was the underdog in that match from the start, and when you factor in the results of his match with Pac Man here, the imminent Yoshi/Luigi result wasn't all that hard to see coming, despite the fact that the board was split virtually down the middle on that match.

I almost have to tip my hat to Pac Man here. He has fallen off dramatically since his days of being a 1 seed in 2002, but so long as he is still here, he is still going to put up decent numbers against good characters. He isn't elite by any means, but he is surely not 13 seed material either. That said, getting doubled up by Luigi is not good, considering how badly Luigi's stock will suffer by the time all is said and done. Pac Man may be respected by most gamers, bu the fact of the matter remains that he has gone from a 1 seed to a 5 seed to a 9 seed to a 13 seed in four contests. He may be hard-pressed to make the field next year, and after that, he might be gone from the contest forever. He has yet to recover from losing to Scorpion back in 2002, when you think about it.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: Robazoid | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:58:28 PM | Message Detail
tag'd
---
Hope is the first step towards disappointment.
Praise the Immortal Emperor- For he is our savior.
From: MasterMage119 | Posted: 10/3/2004 6:59:26 PM | Message Detail
[(Pac Man vs Cloud)(Luigi vs Cloud)] * 50 = Pac Man vs Luigi
[(15.27%)/(24.43%)] * 50 = 31.25%


Ulti, SERIOUSLY have to apologize. You used my fundamentally flawed way.

It should be [(Pac Man vs Cloud)(Cloud vs Luigi)]/50 = Pac Man vs Luigi

That means, [(15.27)/75.57)]/50 = 23.08%
---
I bow down to smitelf, Queen ***** of the Universe. Her intelligence, wit, and sexiness have consume’d me.
From: metalfreak | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:00:39 PM | Message Detail
This is pretty interesting
From: demonwithin | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:04:01 PM | Message Detail
*tags*
---
"You think I'm Vicious?!?!?! YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT VICIOUS IS!!!!!!!!" Spike Spiegel
From: TheBeastWithin | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:08:22 PM | Message Detail
tagged.
---
Run you pigeons, it's Robert Frost!
From: gotenks75 | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:19:52 PM | Message Detail
*tag*
---
Get your dad to divorce your mom for someone younger, sexier, and with a nice rack.That'll teach your mom not to come between you and your video games. -XPanic
From: RockMFR 5 | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:23:34 PM | Message Detail
Ahh, so it has begun.
---
The Ohio State: We are so much better than you. o_0
Currently playing: Pikmin 2 (GCN)
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:25:26 PM | Message Detail
Assuming I did that correctly, I'm really confused as to why there was such a surprise during the actual match between Luigi and Pac Man.

Pac-man's score in 2003 was based off of Kefka. Kefka supposedly got SFF'd by Crono. Pac-man should have done better than his 2003 number would suggest The fact that Pac-man didn't do better put the SFF in Crono vs Kefka 2003 into question. Later on Kefka vs Knuckles screws with things even more.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Bumble II | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:26:55 PM | Message Detail

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:43:03 AM | Message Detail
I can't think of how he has managed to stay as popular as he has for so long. Yoshi's Story was atrocious, and aside from good appearances in party games (Super Smash Brothers, Mario Kart, etc.), he has done very little since Yoshi's Island.


So true, yet so depressing.

Yoshi needs a new platformer to himself.
---
Oh ****. Sorry Bumble. Please don't preform expirements on me, Last time some scientist tried I couldn't figure out where I could expel my feces ;.; -HydraCores
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:28:37 PM | Message Detail
That means, [(15.27)/75.57)]/50 = 23.08%

Pac Man was expected to get 23.08% against Luigi? That doesn't strike me as being correct, for some reason.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:34:14 PM | Message Detail
After doing a quick check, I used the right formula. People were expecting Pac Man to do better than he did because of the belief in Crono/Kefka SFF knocking Pac Man's 2003 stock down too far, as TRE already pointed out for me. I meant to put that in the analysis, but forgot. I'll get to it during Kefka/Knuckles, I assure you =)
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: shadow1764 | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:36:21 PM | Message Detail
SFF?

Oh, and *tag*, I suppose
---
Quoth the zombie, braaaaains
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:40:06 PM | Message Detail
Or, you could just baleet that one and rewrite it.

For the record, after SFF adjustments, Luigi was expected to win with 59% or so of the vote. The X-Sts projected it as the closest match in Hyrule first round.
---
SC2K4 Status - Points: 152/160 - Matches: 58/62 - Rank: 00414/33221 - Final 4: LINK, Megaman, CLOUD, Samus
From: gonf | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:43:08 PM | Message Detail
What does tag mean?
---
SC2004: 154/160 Today's match: LINK vs. Cloud
From: MasterMage119 | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:46:52 PM | Message Detail
After doing a quick check, I used the right formula. People were expecting Pac Man to do better than he did because of the belief in Crono/Kefka SFF knocking Pac Man's 2003 stock down too far, as TRE already pointed out for me. I meant to put that in the analysis, but forgot. I'll get to it during Kefka/Knuckles, I assure you =)

Yeah, I was using the wrong formulas to solve things. Sorry again. -.-

Man, I feel stupid tonight.
---
I bow down to smitelf, Queen ***** of the Universe. Her intelligence, wit, and sexiness have consume’d me.
From: xp1337 | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:47:01 PM | Message Detail
Tag is just a way to make a topic appear in your posted message history so you can get back to it easily.

Any post would do it, but people like to call it a "tag", like how people use "BUMP", when any post would get the job done. =/
---
xp1337:
SC2k4 (151/160) Link vs. Cloud
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:48:46 PM | Message Detail
For the record, after SFF adjustments, Luigi was expected to win with 59% or so of the vote. The X-Sts projected it as the closest match in Hyrule first round.

See, I don't know about the Kefka/Crono SFF that contest. It's possible that it wasn't there, given Pac's performance.

Summary: I am far too lazy (NOTE: TOO MUCH OF A MAN) to rewrite the post.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: xp1337 | Posted: 10/3/2004 7:57:10 PM | Message Detail
I used a different formula (kawaiifan's) to look at the possible projection of Luigi/Pac-Man, and I came up with Luigi expecting a 64.71% win.

No adjustments for possible SFF involved. =/
---
xp1337:
SC2k4 (151/160) Link vs. Cloud
From: Gamecubesupreme | Posted: 10/3/2004 8:25:07 PM | Message Detail
tag

---
llll \|/ llll GO CANADA GO
llll ―|― llll
I'M BAAAAAAAACK
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/3/2004 8:27:10 PM | Message Detail
Hyrule Round 1: (6)Magus vs (11)Luca Blight

(6)Magus - 57128 (81.04%)
(11)Luca Blight - 13367 (18.96%)
Total Votes - 70495
Vote Difference - 43761
Prediction Percentage - 90.45%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b05.jpg

Just to warn everyone well in advance, this may be somewhat biased. Not only is Magus my favorite character, but I haven't played a game in the Suikoden series.

With that in mind, the only thing that bothered me about this match was the low vote total. Magus had everything else going for him, and considering what fate await Magus in the second round, it was nice to see Magus in a dominating position before he was finally taken down. To see 90% of people predict Magus to win a match after seeing a mere 24.25% of people calling him to make the third round last year was a nice breath of fresh air. I don't know if this spoke of Magus's strength or Luca Blight's weakness among the general population of GameFAQs, but regardless, any stat that goes in Magus's favor will make me a happy guy =)

On the other side of all of this, Luca Blight winds up being another glaring example in a long line; cult characters simply do not do well in these contests, and the mentality of the fanbases of cult characters is more of a "Happy to be here" than it is of having a chance to win. When one considers how low the vote totals were in this match, Luca Blight's stock looks even worse for not even being able to manage 20% of the vote. When the final Xsts are released, Luca Blight will look even worse. The Luca Blight army did their job of getting blight into the contest, but a couple hundred people doesn't make a character strong in these polls. Luca Blight may do better next year now that he has been in the field once, but I doubt it. I love Magus and all, but is he not a character who is typically able to get 80% of the vote. Luca just stunk it up that much.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: kramyenals | Posted: 10/3/2004 8:34:55 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
a man who envies our family, is a man who needs help
----Lisa Simpson
From: Skularis | Posted: 10/3/2004 8:39:17 PM | Message Detail
but I haven't played a game in the Suikoden series.

Ulti, this is something that must be fixed. Lie, cheat, steal, kill, rape, pillage, burn, do whatever you must to play Suikoden 1 + 2... 3 is optional, but the first two are a must. I really, really think you would like them.
---
http://img32.exs.cx/img32/254/GoPlanet.jpg
Forceful Dragon pwned you all!!!
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 10/3/2004 8:40:36 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
I walk the path of death and destruction...
- Ramirez, Skies of Arcadia Legends
From: Faia Deflagratio | Posted: 10/3/2004 8:40:51 PM | Message Detail
Try not to go overboard with Magus. Your writeup for the Magus/Crono prophet challenge was basically a page of praising Magus and attacking Crono. -_-

Good writeups so far though.

---
I am Lucid Faia's alternate account.
Number Of Days I Haven't Had To Deal With An Idiot: 2
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:52:46 AM | Message Detail
I won't, I promise.

Sorry I didn't write more today. I was busy with things, and it's a miracle I even got five done. I'll pump them out like a machine tomorrow, I promise.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 'Best. Game. Ever.' Contest
++SCC GOD++
*Married to smitelf on 5/21/04*
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 10/4/2004 7:10:20 AM | Message Detail
*starts up machine*
---
I'd much rather be elitist than an idiot with a misconception that generalizes an entire board.~Bender1616
ZSB [aX]
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/4/2004 7:33:00 AM | Message Detail
You mean, praising Magus and attacking Crono is BAD?!? What lie have I been living in?
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: Majin Lou | Posted: 10/4/2004 7:47:19 AM | Message Detail
<_<
---
I find it hard to tell you. I find it hard to take. When people run in circles it's a very very mad world. - Tears For Fears
From: maplejet | Posted: 10/4/2004 8:27:46 AM | Message Detail
Go Ulti...keep up the good work.
---
R.I.P Mario, 9/20/2004, Mega Man 10/1/2004
Will always be the winners to me, no matter how bad they do
From: DK Iceman | Posted: 10/4/2004 9:03:11 AM | Message Detail
*insert taggish-like move here*
---
If you can laugh at yourself, loud and hard, every time you fall, people will think you’re drunk. - Conan O'Brien
From: Heroic Hentai Fanboy | Posted: 10/4/2004 9:09:16 AM | Message Detail
TAG-DOOOOOKEN!
---
Well, when the parents are away... brother and sister can play..
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 10/4/2004 9:09:21 AM | Message Detail
On a side note, Luca Blight had some of the worst whiners this board has ever seen. It got so they were in every topic talking about him.
---
"You take outside too seriously. Its not like you're gonna die if you don't go outside. Play a video game or something." - Princess Anri
From: RedDrago83 | Posted: 10/4/2004 9:11:23 AM | Message Detail
hmm
---
From: Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted: 4/26/2004 11:55:29 AM | Message Detail
The average voter hasn't even heard of Starcraft. Stop fooling yourselves.
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/4/2004 9:11:42 AM | Message Detail
Ulti, we're starving for more analysis. ;_;
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: RaidenZeroX | Posted: 10/4/2004 9:17:16 AM | Message Detail
tag
---
SC2k4 Score: 185/192
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/4/2004 10:36:35 AM | Message Detail
It may not look like it, but Ulti has a life, see. Can he live it for a second?
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: Sephirot1 Returns | Posted: 10/4/2004 10:38:06 AM | Message Detail
T-T-T-TAG BREAKER
---
Number 50 in the SC2K4!
From: acote80 | Posted: 10/4/2004 10:51:40 AM | Message Detail
*tag*
---
"I beg to dream and differ from the hollow lies
This is the dawning of the rest of our lives" - Green Day
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 10:53:44 AM | Message Detail
Hyrule Round 1: (3)Crono vs (14)Conker

(3)Crono - 62375 (77.99%)
(14)Conker - 17605 (22.01%)
Total Votes - 79980
Vote Difference - 44770
Prediction Percentage - 93.43%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b06.jpg

Crono seems to get better with each passing year, yet for some reason, he cannot seem to catch a break in seeding. I can understand his getting a 5 seed in the first contest, but he has been nothing but short-changed in the two character battles since then. In 2003, Crono was given a 4 seed for but one purpose: to face Mario. This year, Crono was against seeded lower than where he should have been, and why? To face Mario. I understand that the Mario/Crono saga is legendary, but the same match three contests in a row is not a good way to make an unpredictable bracket. If anything, most people on the boards were tired of Mario/Crono after last year's mess. Putting them close together this year was simply overkill.

But even for those of us that would rather see Crono face a character like Samus or Mega Man, there is always next year. We only had this year to work with, and despite an obvious rigging in the seedings to give us Mario vs Crono 3, Crono cared less about such things. Not only did he come out and smack Conker into next Tuesday, but take a quick look at one of the matches from the Summer 2003 Contest:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1346

Not only that, but the 2003 Extrapolated Standings would suggest that Conker performed around where he was expected to in this match:

46 Conker 17.56%
52 Kefka 15.56%

Coming into this match, Conker was expected to do slightly better than Kefka. After the match, the final result followed along with this perfectly, and thus, the theory of Crono/Kefka SFF appearing in 2003 seemed less likely at this point. As such, Pac Man's performance against Luigi was around where it was supposed to be after all, which meant nothing but bad news for Luigi come the second round.

In English, you could theoretically predict that Yoshi was going to beat Luigi and that Knuckles was going to beat Kefka after just the 6th match of the contest. There is also a running theme that started with this match: no one cares about Playstation platformer characters anymore. Characters like Conker, Ratchet, Jak, and Crash Bandicoot getting into this contest was all nice and good, but every single one of them bombed for a reason. Sales don't always translate to GameFAQs popularity, and Playstation platformers, regardless of sales, are better off not being in the contest. They're a waste of space.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 10:55:43 AM | Message Detail
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:36:35 PM | Message Detail
It may not look like it, but Ulti has a life, see. Can he live it for a second?


Not today or tomorrow =)

Truth be told, football was on yesterday. If you people thought that I was going to go crazy writing while the NFL was on, you're crazy. I was also busy cleaning the house, getting laid, and eating buffalo wings. Forgive the digression, okay?
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Agent M | Posted: 10/4/2004 10:58:20 AM | Message Detail
Conker wasn't from a Playstation platformer - Conker's Bad Fur Day was from N64.
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Current score: 147/160 Next match: Cloud. Go Link!!!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:04:19 AM | Message Detail
Eh, mistakes happen.

Just reword it to 3D platformer characters. No one cares about any of them regardless.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:18:45 AM | Message Detail
Hyrule Round 1: (7)Bowser vs (10)Guybrush Threepwood

(7)Bowser - 61731 (82.99%)
(10)Guybrush Threepwood - 12652 (17.01%)
Total Votes - 74383
Vote Difference - 49079
Prediction Percentage - 95%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b07.jpg

I'm obviously not the biggest fan of characters like Ryo Hazuki or Conker in the contest, but I can at least understand why they get into it in the first place. Guybrush Threepwood, on the other hand, remains a mystery to me. He went from being tripled by Ryo Hazuki in 2002, to not appearing in the next two contests, to all of a sudden making the field this year. And not only that, but he made the field as a 10 seed. Take a good look at all of the characters that Guybrush outseeded this year. Do you actually think he could beat a good number of them?

If you ask me, Guybrush's seeding was another prime example of rigging the bracket so that we would see "interesting" company vs company matchups in the second round. Guybrush is clearly overseeded here, but that's okay; he's facing off against a vastly underseeded Bowser. Bowser should be a 4 seed at best, and a 5 seed at worst. Instead, we have a bracket in which Bowser is knocked down a couple of spots so that we may see Bowser vs Mario in the second round?

For what? We already know for a fact that Mario would kill Bowser in a poll, so why have the match? Unfortunately, at the expense of unpredictability, we had to sit through another boring match specifically designed to set up another boring match. The idea of setting up Bowser vs Mario looks good on paper, but in reality, we should be seeing a 4-5 matchup between Bowser and Squall.

The funniest thing of all about this match is that because Guybrush sucked so much in 2002, a lot of us were expecting this match to be far worse on Guybrush than it actually was. 17.01% is a blowout in its own right, but considering some of the predictions that were being thrown around, you could almost make the case that Guybrush did better than expected. Almost.

When it was all said and done, both characters fulfilled their roles in proper fashion. Guybrush was supposed to be BowserFodder from the start, and this was to set Bowser up to be MarioFodder in round two. Just another example of a good character getting the short end of things for favor of CJayC's idea of a "stacked bracket", I suppose.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:21:05 AM | Message Detail
63 Guybrush Threepwood 9.60%
That's with an SFF adjustment in Mario/Bowser, too. Without it, he's at 6.94%. Still 63rd place. And he's a 10 seed.
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"We ask for your strength...Thee who fear'eth the night and stand 'gainst the darkness." ~ Frog
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:23:02 AM | Message Detail
And people seriously did expect him to be on Tanner's level as the match was drawing close. Prediction of Bowser winning with 90%+ of the vote were flying all over the place.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:26:58 AM | Message Detail
Poor Guybrush. He didn't deserve that...
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It's David Bowie vs. Johnny Depp at www.rpgdl.com, with a side order of Omnislash!
nifboy, ps2rulezz, and Hogasm > me.
From: Clmhzrd | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:27:58 AM | Message Detail
Shame the little guys get their asses handed to them. :(

*Comforts Tanner*

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No. I wanted orange. It gave me lemon-lime.
I SPILL my DRINK. They shoot, and I run, and I spill my drink ALL OVER MY UNIFORM!
From: azndragon94 | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:29:43 AM | Message Detail
dammit ulti, i prolly have a 7-7 record from this week's nfl games... so many upsets

by the way, im really looking forward to your Frog/MC battle and Jill/Ryu H battle anlyasis
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He's not dead... he's electroencephalographically challenged
From: shin ramza | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:29:48 AM | Message Detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=16685510

I'm sorry to say this Ulti, but it seems like MWIS has yet again shown his true colors in his attempts to do nothing more than annoy you. You've done an amazing job with this thing thusfar, but I'll have to ask that you put even more into it. People copying off of your ideas to make themselves more popular annoys me, and deep down, he knows he's doing it.
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"How many DBZers does it take to screw in a light bulb? One, but it takes 12 episodes."
From: Agent M | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:30:29 AM | Message Detail
I remember people saying it would be a 90% blowout. I was thinking closer to 85%... 90% blowouts are pretty rare.
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Something has to fill this spot.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:33:41 AM | Message Detail
Eh, I'm done with trolling wars. If he wants to make an analysis topic, it's fine by me. Not that I don't agree that the timing is a little too convinient to be coincidence, but that's none of my business.

And besides, I don't think I'm doing a bad job at all here. I have good writeups for matches that absolutely sucked over here =)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Clmhzrd | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:33:48 AM | Message Detail
I'm sorry to say this Ulti, but it seems like MWIS has yet again shown his true colors in his attempts to do nothing more than annoy you. You've done an amazing job with this thing thusfar, but I'll have to ask that you put even more into it. People copying off of your ideas to make themselves more popular annoys me, and deep down, he knows he's doing it.

Board politics are dumb, let people do whatever the hell they want.

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No. I wanted orange. It gave me lemon-lime.
I SPILL my DRINK. They shoot, and I run, and I spill my drink ALL OVER MY UNIFORM!
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:39:24 AM | Message Detail
Ulti, dude, please calm down. I like your topic. I'm comfortable with the fact that your topic is bound to continue to be fifty times more popular than mine. I thought you wouldn't be angry if I pulled a DiamondSoulX. O_o

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"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: Agent M | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:40:15 AM | Message Detail
DiamondSoulX never did finish the analysis he did for last year. Honestly, I don't mind reading another analysis. I don't know whether the intentions behind it are out of jealousy, but that's none of my concern.
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Something has to fill this spot.
From: ReaPeR xZ | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:46:47 AM | Message Detail
I don't see why anyone would be afraid of a little competition. I don't think Ulti has to worry too much about his topic being shrugged off for someone else's. Clmhzrd said it. Let people do whatever the hell they want. It's a message board.
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SC2k4 - Final Contest Score: 155/192
SC2k5 - Double Elimination in 2005!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:49:16 AM | Message Detail
Um, hello? I'm not upset here. Ace is doing his writeup in the DSX style, and he's commenting on total votes and prediction percentages, two things that I put more stock in than most people. I'm not the one trolling Ace for his topic, and so long as he doesn't use my exact format, he can do whatever he wants.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:50:25 AM | Message Detail
Meh, I still got haters in my topic to deal with. >.<

But thanks for the, ehh, support, Ulti. I'll take whatever I can get.

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"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: the jp | Posted: 10/4/2004 11:51:27 AM | Message Detail
I totally agree with Ulti. Ceejus completley dropped the ball on the bracket. Company limits allowed a lot of undeserving characters to get in, and company bracketing made for really boring matches.
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Aeris loves you.
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:02:32 PM | Message Detail
Next year's bracket should be the 64 top nominations, simply unfooled around with.


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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:30:54 PM | Message Detail
Hyrule Round 1: (2)Mario vs (15)JC Denton

(2)Mario - 65184 (83.54%)
(15)JC Denton - 12847 (16.46%)
Total Votes - 78031
Vote Difference - 52337
Prediction Percentage - 98.28%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b08.jpg

Another day, another overwhelming blowout that goes in the favor of the higher seed in the Hyrule division. But unlike the other matches, this one had a special meaning to it. For the first time ever, Mario managed to perform to standards against a non-Nintendo character.

In 2002, Mario allowed Servbot to get 25% of the vote against him, and he followed that up by barely doubling Morrigan Aensland. Yet somehow, he managed to turn around and blow away Donkey Kong before edging out two close victories against Cloud and Crono.

In 2003, Mario was as much a wild card as the previous year. He managed to blow away Captain Olimar of Pikmin fame before allowing Shadow the Hedgehog to score nearly 45% on him. He once against followed up his supposed underperformance by edging out Crono in a rematch of the 2002 epic before getting killed by Sephiroth in the Elite 8.

After all that, we had a few dilemmas facing Mario here in 2004. How could a character fail to blow away opponents, yet manage to turn around and constantly squeeze out close victories against the likes of Cloud and Crono? The answer was simple enough to see after this match. Morrigan Aensland and Shadow the Hedgehog truly are as strong as their matches with Mario would suggest. For the first time ever, Mario managed to make a non-Nintendo character look like fodder, and even though Mario failed in his bid to keep JC Denton under 15% until the end of the match, his blowout victory was nothing to ignore. JC Denton isn't very well-known on GameFAQs, but he stars in one of the better games out there in Deus Ex. If you like badassed characters, you'll love JC in that game. He was pulling the Neo look long before The Matrix ever even existed.

The odd one out in all of this would be Servbot himself. Personally, I think that Servbot's 25% against Mario in 2002 was the direct result of it being the first match we have ever had in one of these contests. A lot of joke votes for Servbot were cast simply because Mario's victory was never in question, and anyone who was on the boards around that time knows this. With that in mind, it's easy to throw out Servbot's performance as a fluke and to finally give Mario to credit he deserves. Not only did Mario beating JC Denton so badly prove that he is still strong, but it also gives a new respect to Shadow the Hedgehod and Morrigan Aensland. We need Morrigan back in the contest, plain and simple.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: shadow1764 | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:31:02 PM | Message Detail
Hey guys, one little question, what does FFS stand for?
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Quoth the zombie, braaaaains
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:33:53 PM | Message Detail
You mean SFF? Same Fanbase Factor, the one factor that ****s with numbers more than anything else.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:36:01 PM | Message Detail
SFF=same fanbase factor.

Let's use link, ganon, and magus as examples...

ganon got like 10% on link, due to SFF.

ganon got 49% on magus, who got a respectable amount (i think 35% or so) on link.

so ganon would be EXPECTED to get 35% on link, but because so many ganon fans are link fans as well and vote for link, he loses his fanbase (due to same fanbase factor) and loses %.

this must be accounted for in making extrapolated statistics, which is a rather inexact science; and introduces the margin of SFF estimation error.
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:36:31 PM | Message Detail
ulti=short answer
me=long answer
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: the jp | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:38:37 PM | Message Detail
Remember the cries of "Who the hell is JC Denton?" when the bracket was posted?

I sure do.
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Aeris loves you.
From: Clmhzrd | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:44:27 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, I wasn't here for the early parts of the contest. Nice to see JC got a decent pic. ^_^

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No. I wanted orange. It gave me lemon-lime.
I SPILL my DRINK. They shoot, and I run, and I spill my drink ALL OVER MY UNIFORM!
From: shin ramza | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:47:08 PM | Message Detail
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:36:31 PM | Message Detail
ulti=short answer
me=long answer


God, people like you annoy me. What was the reason for posting that? OMFG MY ANSWER WAS LONGER THAN ULTI'S I'M SO COOL??
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"How many DBZers does it take to screw in a light bulb? One, but it takes 12 episodes."
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:47:09 PM | Message Detail
The board followed the trend of "Why is ______ losing to ________?!" for that whole freaking division. I don't know how many times I heard: If you people had any taste, _______ would be winning.

I think Luca Blight had the worst whiners of the division though. Going in to every single topic and complaining about it... meh. Guybrush was bad too.
---
"You take outside too seriously. Its not like you're gonna die if you don't go outside. Play a video game or something." - Princess Anri
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:49:30 PM | Message Detail
o_0

From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:36:31 PM | Message Detail
ulti=short answer
me=long answer

God, people like you annoy me. What was the reason for posting that? OMFG MY ANSWER WAS LONGER THAN ULTI'S I'M SO COOL??


Erm, no. I found it kind of ironic that I went in depth and someone beat me to the punch with an answer that basically said all that needed to be said that much quicker.
*shrug*

You want annoying, go look at all the tags on the first page. Go and italicize-quote every single one of those and call them annoying pointless posts.
-_-;
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: Tannoy | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:57:24 PM | Message Detail
Erm, no. I found it kind of ironic that I went in depth and someone beat me to the punch with an answer that basically said all that needed to be said that much quicker.
*shrug*

You want annoying, go look at all the tags on the first page. Go and italicize-quote every single one of those and call them annoying pointless posts.


>.>

<.<

.... Tag!
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"Governing the Italians is not difficult, merely pointless." - Benito Mussolini
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/4/2004 12:58:25 PM | Message Detail
if that wasn't so dang funny, i'd cut-paste italicize quote it just to piss people off.

>_>
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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: polankerboy | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:08:42 PM | Message Detail
Nice work, Ulti. So far, so good.
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Xbox Live Gamertag: polanker
My game collection: http://users.ign.com/collection/bpolanco
From: meche313 | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:15:29 PM | Message Detail
TAG
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I actually thought Ryu would beat Sora......*pees in own butt*
Supporter of Samus in SC2k4!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:19:51 PM | Message Detail
20XX Round 1: (1)Mega Man vs (16)Earthworm Jim

(1)Mega Man - 70219 (82.98%)
(16)Earthworm Jim - 14406 (17.02%)
Total Votes - 84625
Vote Difference - 55813
Prediction Percentage - 97.47%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b09.jpg

If there was ever a match that proved that Mega Man was in trouble, this was it. Mega Man is responsible for some of the biggest blowouts we have ever seen, and yet he turns around and only manages 83% against Earthworm Jim? What's up with that?

Oh that's right, Earthworm Jim kicks unheralded amounts of ass. Is there anyone out there who used to own a Sega, but didn't play Earthworm Jim? The guy absolutely owns. Hell, you didn't even need a Sega. He appears across nine different systems, eleven if you count the three different Game Boys as separate systems, and on all of them, Earthworm Jim's coolness is unmatches by most characters. Where else are you going to find a worm in a power suit who fights giant balls of snot in an effort to save cows from aliens?

Yeah I know, Earthworm Jim was killed. But I must tell you this: in the first three contests, Earthworm Jim was a rather large example of someone who was missing. I'm aware that he is on the level of the "I'm just happy to be in the field" characters, but I love the little guy. He makes far better fodder to the elites than the likes of Ryo Hazuki, Tanner, and Guybrush Threepwood at least. Earthworm Jim, win or lose, is a character that most would find hard-pressed to dislike. Ask yourself, would you rather see another Tanner, or would you like to see Earthworm Jim? Sure he'll lose, but he is one of those characters that we all love to see so much that it isn't about whether he wins or loses. Just seeing him have a moment in the spotlight is more than enough =)

I also don't think I'm alone in this sentiment. This match managed a high vote total in comparison to the other matches in the contest, and I don't think that this was solely Mega Man's doing. There was clearly an I Know Earthworm Jim Will Lose But I Love Him To Death And Will Be Certain To Vote For Him Anyway Factor (IKEJWLBILHTDAWBCTVFHAF) at work here. Mega Man may be a good draw, but so is the worm. God Bless the worm.

In all seriousness, this was an impressive performance by Mega Man. I just felt the need to rant about how Earthworm Jim kicks ass, because if you didn't know, now you know.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:21:02 PM | Message Detail
I happen to like those tags. This topic getting flooded with tags is as big a tradition as the topic itself.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: FourthDeus | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:21:58 PM | Message Detail
I'm in complete agreement.

By the way, Earthworm Jim 2= BEST MEGA MAN GAME EVER.
From: the jp | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:22:21 PM | Message Detail
Earthworm Jim was the one of the most inventive games ever made. He deserved his slot.
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Aeris loves you.
From: Agent M | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:42:43 PM | Message Detail
Earthworm Jim deserves to be here even if he only acts as fodder. He's good fodder.
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Something has to fill this spot.
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:44:51 PM | Message Detail
>_>

<_<

*tags*
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There's an old saying in Texas... fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - you can't get fooled again. - Dubya
From: Dranze | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:50:55 PM | Message Detail
Tag
---
Current Score: I'm dead.
From: HyperBlast Xan | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:55:08 PM | Message Detail
I won't get to do this for the rest of the contest, so excuse me while I rant about how great Alucard is. Until very recently, I never played Super Metroid. I wound up playing Symphony of the Night first, and that game left me nothing short of breathless. The final song sucked and the voice acting wasn't much better, but everything else about that game was absolutely flawless. I didn't know it at the time, but the big reason why the game was so amazing was that Symphony of the Night took everything that Super Metroid did and improved on it to the higest degree. The map is easier to use, the bosses are colossal, the weapons are superb, the special skills and spells are absolutely brilliant, and Symphony of the Night even managed to incorporate elements from fighting and RPG genres unto itself. The button combinations to pull off the spells are directly from the fighting genre, and Alucard getting experience points, level ups, and a myriad of items and subweapons for killing enemies are directly from the RPG genre.

And guess what? After you conquer the first castle, the entire thing gets flipped upside down and you get to do it all over again. Not only that, but you get to hear one of the single greatest gaming tracks of all time, Final Toccata, playing on loop for a great deal of the Inverted Castle. Symphona of the Night is brilliant, and the game that it was based upon, Super Metroid, isn't too bad either. I couldn't stand Super Metroid on my first play, but have since fallen in love with the game, as well as Samus, after a few replays. The only complaint I have with the pure gameplay of Symphony of the Night is the lack of sequence breaking. It is nearly impossible to reach certain areas without certain items in that game, whereas Super Metroid allows you to go into areas you aren't supposed to reach with relative ease after enough practice.



Spoilers I guess?






Just found this topic =)

I gotta agree, Symphony of the Night completely owns. It's amazing how creative the makers were with the Inverted Castle and the two ends (shaft and belmont) through the middle of the game.
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Twin: It crushed the bone! It crushed the bone! Oh my god! The pain is unimagineable--- OH MY GOD! You shot me! Why did you do that?
From: Paratroopa1 | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:56:59 PM | Message Detail
Earthworm Jim is, by far, some of the best fodder we've ever had. Although heck, put him up a few seeds and we could see him put up a fight... >_>
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 1:57:35 PM | Message Detail
20XX Round 1: (8)Tidus vs (9)Shadow

(8)Tidus - 48334 (50.81%)
(9)Shadow the Hedgehog - 46788 (49.19%)
Total Votes - 95122
Vote Difference - 1546
Prediction Percentage - 70.06%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b10.jpg

After nine of the most boring, predictable matches we had ever seen, we finally had something to get worked up about. In fact, the first nine matches were so bad that Tidus/Shadow wound up getting far more attention than it would have gotten under normal circumstances. Simply put, the board was desperate for something, anything, to get excited about in this contest.

Unfortuantely, while Tidus/Shadow looks close when looking at the final score, the match was over after the first thirty seconds. Still, the buildup was fun. When looking at the bracket as a whole, there were very few matches that were hard to call from the start, and most of those matches were in the first and second rounds. With the notable exception of Link vs Cloud, and to a lesser extent Mario vs Crono, all of the excitement in this contest came from the tough matches within the first two rounds. And as boring as most of this contest was, we still had our fair share of decent matches.

Coming into the contest, the first match that struck everyone as being hard to call was Tidus/Shadow. They were dead even in the 2003 Extrapolated Standings, and given the track record of both characters, convincing arguments could be made on both sides. On Tidus's side, the argument was simple. Tidus is a Square character representing the defining Final Fantasy title for the Playstation 2. Regardless of whether or not he is liked by Square fans, the fact of the matter is that most Final Fantasy characters get their fair share of support. In close matches on this site, Squaresoft has gotten more and more difficult to defeated. This gave Tidus an innate advantage right from the start simply because of his company alliance, and when you factor in that 2003 Tidus would be expected to get 49% against 2003 Sonic -- an improvement of over 7% from the Tidus/Sonic match in 2002 -- the desicion was easier to make for many of the people who were having trouble choosing between them.

On Shadow's side of things, the typical argument was something along the lines of OMFG TIDUS IS TEH WHINY NOOBUKLAR GNBOOBIE FROM TEH FINL FANTAYZZY ECKS DEE'D TWO'D ADN SHADOW IS TEH BADAZZD CHARACTER FROM TEH SONIUC GAMEZ SHADWO IS SOOO CUL TIDUS IS TEH SUXXOR SHADWO WILL WEEN TEH MATCH LOLOLOLZROX!1!!++@2@!#!!!11!1SHIFTONE!11!11

Amidst all of the Tidus bashing that went on in the days leading up to (and following) the match, intelligent arguments were posed in Shadow's favor. For one, Tidus only managed around 41% on Sonic in 2002. For Tidus to beat Shadow, he would have to rely on Sonic taking a drop in 2003 on top of Shadow being no where near as strong as Sonic in 2004. That's quite the stretch. Secondly, Tidus was a 5 seed in 2003, and may very well have overperformed in his match against Ganondorf due to bracket voting and the "Anyone but Tidus" votes that plague him in every match.

(continued)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:15:02 PM | Message Detail
Ah the Tidus/Shadow match. The board over-hyped this, but there was such good reason to. Our first close match of the contest. Anywho, I can't remember HOW many "Meg Ryan" topics we had making fun of Tidus, and he still managed to never let the Hedgehog into it.

Every so often Shadow would shave off a few votes and you'd see an "OMFGZ TEH SHADOW COME BACK".

That was a funny match. On a side-note, this match is when I really got into the AIM chats... fun-stuff those were.
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"You take outside too seriously. Its not like you're gonna die if you don't go outside. Play a video game or something." - Princess Anri
From: the jp | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:15:52 PM | Message Detail
Tidus deserves nothing less than death.

Tidus = Worst Final Fantasy Character EVER!
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Aeris loves you.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:18:31 PM | Message Detail
The problem with this match is that despite all of the hype it was getting, it wound up not living up to it. Sure the match was decently close when you look at the final score, but everyone who was here during the match knows that the final score is not indicative of how well Tidus truly did during the match.

When the poll began, Tidus not only took the early lead, but he owned it. He did so well in the opening sections of the voting block that one could argue that the match was over after the first few minutes. The truly surprising thing about this poll was that Tidus managed to challenge not only Shadow, but the voting demopgraphic. Sega is the undisputed king of the morning vote, yet when the morning vote came around, it failed to save Shadow the Hedgehog from Tidus's onslaught. Tidus not only withstood the day vote, but he didn't miss a beat en route to building a 1700 vote lead 10 hours into the poll. It wasn't until then that Shadow began fighting back, but by this time, the Sega morning vote that traditionally allows Sega characters to pull out close matches was already gone. Shadow began chipping away at Tidus's lead, but he was doing do during a time period in which other companies dominate the demographic.

Shadow was doing a decent job of holding his own after falling behind by so much, but he was relying on the late afternoon and evening votes to help him out. These crowds usually favor Nintendo and Squaresoft respectively, and though Shadow managed to stay 50-50 with Tidus from the time Tidus went up by 1700 all the way until the end of the poll, Shadow did not have nearly enough of his own demographic assisting him in order to make any serious run at winning the match. Tidus taking a 1700 vote lead with the aid of the day vote that was supposed to go to Shadow decided the match right then and there, but that didn't stop the constant stream of OMFG SHADOW IS COMING BACK topics every time he took three votes off of the lead. Despite Shadow's best efforts to make some noise in the poll, all he managed to do was take 14 hours to cut all of 150 votes off of Tidus's lead of 1700. This was somewhat decent for board drama, but it meant nothing to Tidus. He had the match won after 10 hours when he took Shadow's day vote away from him.

In the fallout from all of this, I do have a lot of respect for Shadow's strength after seeing what he managed to do in this poll. He may have lost the day vote, and because of this the match itself, but Shadow's ability to hold his own with Tidus for the final 14 hours of the poll was interesting. During a time period where Square usually dominates, Shadow the Hedgehog managed to take Tidus's evening and night vote away from him. Tidus could have very easily gome on to win this match by over 4000 votes, but Shadow held his own and went down fighting. It's hard to say anything bad about a character who takes his opponent's strength from him, and for Shadow, that meant holding his own during the evening vote. Not bad at all. But on the other side of this, this also means that Tidus deserves some respect for taking Shadow's day vote from him. Tidus failing to do well during his own voting block surely meant a collapse in the next round, but at least Tidus managed a victory in a close match this year unlike his near-miss against Ganondorf last year. To this day, I am convinced that Tidus would get the respect he deserves if he managed to take down Ganondorf and/or Shadow last year.

After all of that, even though Mega Man was bound to kill the winner anyway, we finally had a match that gave us some excitement. It wasn't much, but at least we had a reason to refresh the poll every 2 seconds for a time.

(continued)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:29:45 PM | Message Detail
On Shadow's side of things, the typical argument was something along the lines of OMFG TIDUS IS TEH WHINY NOOBUKLAR GNBOOBIE FROM TEH FINL FANTAYZZY ECKS DEE'D TWO'D ADN SHADOW IS TEH BADAZZD CHARACTER FROM TEH SONIUC GAMEZ SHADWO IS SOOO CUL TIDUS IS TEH SUXXOR SHADWO WILL WEEN TEH MATCH LOLOLOLZROX!1!!++@2@!#!!!11!1SHIFTONE!11!11

Heh. You speak "stupid" pretty good. XD
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: NewLib | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:31:34 PM | Message Detail
I just want it to be known.

That Tidus is, and will always be, a part of the female anatomy.
From: swirldude | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:36:15 PM | Message Detail
So Tidus and Squall both benefit from the 5% given to them by the females?
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I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush ~SuperLuigiBros
Nifboy pwned me with a plunger!
From: NewLib | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:36:57 PM | Message Detail
Probably...
From: swirldude | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:38:17 PM | Message Detail
I would like to take this time to pledge my undying fanboyism for Skarmory.
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I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush ~SuperLuigiBros
Nifboy pwned me with a plunger!
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:38:31 PM | Message Detail
Tidus' 5% came from the Meg Ryan Fan Club...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
nifboy, ps2rulezz, and Hogasm PWNED me in sc2k4, what a shame...
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:40:13 PM | Message Detail
The characters themselves may have failed to have the match we were hoping for, but as characters, it is a true shame that they have such ****y voice actors. Tidus, despite popular belief, is not a bad character. He is the first Final Fantasy lead since Terra (and to a lesser extent, Zidane) to have emotions that we as players can actually relate to. It's nice to see Cloud and Squall rip everything to shreds whenever they see fit, but we can't do that in real life. I like how we get to see Tidus mature from an immature little kid to a man right in front of our eyes throughout the game. Part of the reason why I think people dislike Tidus so much is because a lot of people act the same way he does. They can't handle some of the bad things that happen to them, and instead of being a man about it, they whine for help until someone offers to hold their hand and guide them. Hating Tidus is more a reverse catharsis than it is Tidis not being a good character. And while the laughing/lake scenes were atrocious, there are quite a number of interaction scenes between the leads of Final Fantasy 7/8/9 and the secondary female charcaters that are equally painful to watch, yet you don't hear a lot of complaining about them. Odd coincidence. Tidus isn't a bad character; people are simply very close-minded.

Shadow's case is far easier to analyse. For all intents and purposes, Shadow has been in all of two games: Sonic Adventure 2: Battle and Sonic Heroes. For the sake of argument, let's pretend that Sonic Heroes doesn't exist. Shadow appears in one good game, and despite having a horrible voice actor in the one decent game he appears in, Shadow still finds a way to be as strong as he in these contests. Even more impressive is the fact that Shadow is constantly working against the brackets to do what he does. Despite being bashed by even some of the most loyal Sonic fans out there, only appearing in one good game, and suffering from a case of the Gordon Freeman Herpes, Shadow still manages to pump out solid numbers every year. He was the underdog against Wario, SA2:B didn't even make the Spring Contest, and he was the overwhelming underdog against Tidus. And he still manages to do well.

Conclusion: Rape, muder, pillage, lie, cheat, steal, harass, annoy, bribe..... whatever, just do whatever it takes to convince Cam Clarke to do the voice acting for Shadow the Hedgehog. With a proper voice actor and some more exposure, Shadow could do some serious damage in this contest. The fact that he continues to perform despite no one knowing who he is means that we have some serious potential here. If Sega plays their cards right (an oxymoron, I know), then Shadow could not only be a force in the contest, but he may also help the Sonic franchise to become mainstream again. It's clear that Sonic's glory days were in the 2D era, but with proper marketing and a few legendary games, that could all change. The fact that more people thought Alucard and Pac Man had a chance at upsetting Ganondorf and Luigi respectively needs to change.

Of all the new characters created in this era, only Auron, Tidus, and Shadow come off to me as having any real chance at causing damage in this contest in five years, with Shadow having the brightest future of the three. Hopefully, Sega does not waste this.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:42:16 PM | Message Detail
He is the first Final Fantasy lead since Terra (and to a lesser extent, Zidane) to have emotions that we as players can actually relate to.

... Maybe I should play FFX. I love Terra and Zidane. ^_^
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: NewLib | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:43:38 PM | Message Detail
Uh Ulti, what about the Cheif? You know he will probably be a lot stronger than the other three next year.
From: NewLib | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:45:31 PM | Message Detail
I also have to agree about Tidus. I just make fun of him because of his voice and looks. Whoever designed him and voiced him should be shot and drug around out back. Tidus and Auron were good characters. The rest of them... were not. I hate Yuna almost as much as Rinoa and that says a lot.
From: nifboy | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:48:16 PM | Message Detail
Tidus = Worst Final Fantasy Character EVER!

Tidus isn't THAT bad. Compared to most of the rest of the FFX cast (which is to say everyone but Auron and Lulu) he's outright decent. Especially compared to Khimari.
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Co-champion of the Summer 2k4 Guru bracket challenge, along with ps2rulezz and Hogasm, with 190 points!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:50:09 PM | Message Detail
Whoever designed him and voiced him should be shot and drug around out back.

I've been saying we should shoot Nomura for years now. I just don't like his obsession with belts. I don't know who voiced him, though.
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"We ask for your strength...Thee who fear'eth the night and stand 'gainst the darkness." ~ Frog
From: shin ramza | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:50:33 PM | Message Detail
This is the best topic on the board right now. Who else but Ulti would be willing to give a three page report on why Tidus/Shadow was so good, despite the match only being worth a point?
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"How many DBZers does it take to screw in a light bulb? One, but it takes 12 episodes."
From: NewLib | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:53:00 PM | Message Detail
Seriously if Tidus/Shadow gets three pages. How many pages is Frog/LS, Frog/MC, or Jill/Ryu going to get?
From: the jp | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:53:18 PM | Message Detail
Tidus is a whiny wuss. I hate him. Sorry Ulti, but here we disagree.
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Aeris loves you.
From: swirldude | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:54:16 PM | Message Detail
Seriously if Tidus/Shadow gets three pages. How many pages is Frog/LS, Frog/MC, or Jill/Ryu going to get?

When you see how many, your mind will be blown.
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I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush ~SuperLuigiBros
Nifboy pwned me with a plunger!
From: NewLib | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:55:57 PM | Message Detail
But I like my mind...
From: Faia Deflagratio | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:56:03 PM | Message Detail
What the hell is everyone's problem with Kimahri? When all of my friends were playing FFX, we thought he was cool. He's the favorite character of one of my friends. The characters we don't like are the airheaded FF girls, such as Selphie and Rikku.

---
I am Lucid Faia's alternate account.
Number Of Days I Haven't Had To Deal With An Idiot: 0
From: sidharta | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:57:13 PM | Message Detail
I don't like Tidus for 1 reason, he and I have NOTHING in common.

And whatever emotions/reactions he showed is often the opposite of what I would feel/do given the exact same circumstances.

I even relate better with Squall moreso than him, and I don't like Squall either.

But I guess to each his own, to me, Tidus is just an ackward char I can never relate to.

---
<In the process of looking for a new sig.>
From: Faia Deflagratio | Posted: 10/4/2004 2:59:12 PM | Message Detail
Cyan was always my favorite FF character, storyline wise. He played the tragic figure better than any other.

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I am Lucid Faia's alternate account.
Number Of Days I Haven't Had To Deal With An Idiot: 0
From: mario incandenza | Posted: 10/4/2004 3:00:02 PM | Message Detail
good work.
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Very Low Impact 30 min; A narcoleptic aerobics instructor struggles to hide her condition from students and employers.
From: CompmanJX3 | Posted: 10/4/2004 3:06:15 PM | Message Detail
Of all the new characters created in this era, only Auron, Tidus, and Shadow come off to me as having any real chance at causing damage in this contest in five years,

Someone already said it, but Master Chief can and will hold his own in this contest. Then again, in five years, he may have been forgotten or replaced.
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I figured I should have a sig. So I have a sig.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 3:07:48 PM | Message Detail
I thought about Master Chief, but I'll have to wait until after Halo 2 to see how good he truly is. Had that link not been posted on the Halo site, Frog would have beaten him by 4000 votes.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Ishbu3116 | Posted: 10/4/2004 3:11:08 PM | Message Detail
Someone posted a link on the Halo website to get extra votes for MC?
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Why not just have Cloud vs Link for SC2K5, saves us a lot of trouble
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/4/2004 3:12:09 PM | Message Detail
There were links on several forums dedicated to Halo, but the link he is talking about was from halo.bungie.net
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: swirldude | Posted: 10/4/2004 3:13:47 PM | Message Detail
Someone posted a link on the Halo website to get extra votes for MC?

On a board at a big Halo fansite. How that will get 3993 more votes than MC should've is beyond me. MC deserved to be at the level of Frog this year, and will exceed that next year.
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I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush ~SuperLuigiBros
Nifboy pwned me with a plunger!
From: Anagram | Posted: 10/4/2004 3:33:33 PM | Message Detail
Tag
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super luigi owns me
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 10/4/2004 3:37:39 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 10/4/2004 3:56:04 PM | Message Detail
I don't really see why everyone hates Tidus's voice acting. There were a couple of times when it was bad, but that didn't ruin it for me. I thought it was done very well throughout the game. Tidus would probably be my third favorite in the FFX cast, behind Lulu and Auron. I liked Wakka as well. Rikku had her moments at times. Yuna was well on the way to being my most hated character ever in the first half, but she kinda redeemed herself in the second half. Kimahri was just a waste of space.
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I'd much rather be elitist than an idiot with a misconception that generalizes an entire board.~Bender1616
ZSB [aX]
From: sidharta | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:08:11 PM | Message Detail
* bump *

---
<In the process of looking for a new sig.>
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:16:18 PM | Message Detail
20XX Round 1: (5)Tommy Vercetti vs (12)Max Payne

(5)Tommy Vercetti - 48239 (61.96%)
(12)Max Payne - 29621 (38.04%)
Total Votes - 77860
Vote Difference - 18618
Prediction Percentage - 76.02%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b11.jpg

With all of the failures that Max Payne has had in contests past, the 2004 contest could have very well been his last stand to see if he deserves to be here. This is the guy whose track record includes victories over Dirk the Daring and Gordon Freeman, and a loss to Scorpion. This year, Max Payne was stuck in a first round match against a fellow Rockstar character in Max Payne. In other words, for Max Payne to avoid getting blown out of the field altogether, he had to avoid Rockstar SFF against the Grand Theft Auto: Vice City minstay in Tommy Vercetti.

Max Payne may not have won this match, but he more than proved that he belongs in the field. Not only did Max Payne avoid getting blown out of the water, not only did Max Payne avoid suffering SFF, but Max Payne overperformed by 4.5%! Plug 2003 Xst numbers into the [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB formula, and Max Payne was expected to get 33.68% on Vercetti in this match without SFF. Make of this what you will, but if Max Payne can avoid being SFF'd to hell by his fellow Rockstar teammate, and perform far better than he was projected to, then he'll always have a place as one of the more loveable losers of this contest. His fanbase is clearly large and loyal enough to keep him in the field, and when he can do this much better than expected, he belongs. His matches are always boring, but it's hard to argue against him being in the field.

As for Tommy Vercetti, can you guys believe how far he has fallen since last year? When the Summer 2003 bracket was first released, Vercetti was supposed to be able to ride Vice City's coattails all the way to a massive performance. Since then, Vercetti has been on a constant spiral downward, to the point where he can not only fail to grab SFF against Max Payne, but to the point where he can do 4.5% worse than expected. Blame whatever you wish, but when you go from being as hyped as he was no a near-loss to Donkey Kong to an underperformance against Max Payne, you have some problems.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:24:26 PM | Message Detail
I got Vercetti/Payne right in the Prophet Challenge. =) Either way, yeah, I think Max Payne went up some...and I really don't think Tommy went down, either. That was confirmed by when he faced Zero, if you ask me.
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:26:38 PM | Message Detail
This year, Max Payne was stuck in a first round match against a fellow Rockstar character in Max Payne.

Should've been Tommy Vercetti, but we knew that. ^_^

Interesting write-up. Can't wait for the rest. =)
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:26:56 PM | Message Detail
Alucard, Kirby, Max Payne, Gordon Freeman, and Bomberman all overperformed this year. They were all in the same half division (Seph's) last year. Something fishy went on over there.
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"We ask for your strength...Thee who fear'eth the night and stand 'gainst the darkness." ~ Frog
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:27:43 PM | Message Detail
You're really going to do this for every match? Devotion, my friend. Devotion. ;)
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Reggie: Kicking ass and taking names since E3 2004.
*creator of Clinkeroth*
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:28:45 PM | Message Detail
You can all be in denial towards Master Chief's comeback being legitimate, you'll only have next year to see just how strong he truly is.
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Today's Survivor topic can be found here, Please vote : )http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=16070956
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:28:47 PM | Message Detail
You're really going to do this for every match? Devotion, my friend. Devotion. ;)

He did it for every match in the Spring. =)
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: Chococid | Posted: 10/4/2004 5:31:22 PM | Message Detail
devotion, no life, something along those lines.

:P


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RPG Elite (777) Dragoon Choco-Mage
From the ashes of Reito rose a new kami, and thereafter at every battle came Horobi, Death's wail.
From: Vortex268 | Posted: 10/4/2004 6:02:18 PM | Message Detail
He was pulling the Neo look long before The Matrix ever even existed.

Humour/10. Deus Ex wasn't even out until a year after The Matrix.

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From: CidGregor | Posted: 10/4/2004 6:40:48 PM | Message Detail
And while the laughing/lake scenes were atrocious,

SPOILERS!
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
I hope, Ulti, when you say the lake scene, you aren't referring to the kiss scene in Macalania Woods just before the Calm Lands, because that was an EXTREMELY good scene. Yuna's crying looked a tad fakey but overall I liked it and the song going along with it was awesome even though the average US gamer like myself couldn't understand it. That may just be me, though, as I am a sucker for the love/romance side-story in any plot, and I am also a sucker for the rain/water effect in both romance scenes and fight scenes. Which is incidentially why the trailer for KH2 at the end of KH1 was so awesome to me as well.

</tangent>
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"Spira is full of death...only SIN is reborn, and then only to bring more death. It is a cycle of death, spiraling endlessly."- Auron
From: Anagram | Posted: 10/4/2004 6:50:27 PM | Message Detail
Bump for great justice.
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super luigi owns me
From: GalacticMage777 | Posted: 10/4/2004 7:50:22 PM | Message Detail
98th slot? That's worth a tag.
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.diputs ,thgir ot tfel morf daer ot desoppus er'uoY
My FFT Sequel Game Script: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=4838
From: Lopen | Posted: 10/4/2004 8:35:37 PM | Message Detail
and he was the overwhelming underdog against Tidus

Tell that to the "prophets". I never really doubted his victory until they were harping on Shadow having the advantage. Even so, overwhelming is an overwhelming overstatement.
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Not today samurai, not while I still live
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:09:27 AM | Message Detail
20XX Round 1: (4)Zero vs (13)Protoman

(4)Zero - 58317 (71.72%)
(13)Protoman - 22993 (28.28%)
Total Votes - 81310
Vote Difference - 35324
Prediction Percentage - 86.41%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b12.jpg

It's easy to blame CJayC for stacking the 20XX Division's first half in order to give us SFF matches involving Mega Man, but unlike the SFF in the Hyrule Division, the SFF in the 20XX division wasn't nearly as boring to watch. Sure we all knew the outcomes of the match as easily as we did in the Hyrule Division, but the "fodder" in 20XX was far more fun to see in action. Protoman is one such example.

This match was very hard for a lot of Mega Man fans, simply because it is difficult to decide who to vote for. Zero may be Mega Man's rival/friend/badassed companion in the Mega Man X series, but Protoman was around while Zero was still being put together. Protoman simply reeks of badass. His theme kicks ass, his character models kick ass, his match pic kicked ass (and was better than Zero's pic, I might add), and any part that he had in all of the games in the main Mega Man series kicked ass. I challenge any Mega Man fan to play through Mega Man 3 or Mega Man 7 and tell me afterwards that Protoman sucks as a character. It takes a little work to figure out what to do in Mega Man 7, but still, that isn't the point. Protoman, unlike some other characters destined for a first round loss in this contest, was a character whose appearance in this contest was warranted despite his actual performance. We need a bracket in which all 64 characters can say the same thing about themselves.

I also need to tip my hat off to Zero here. Sure he may be somewhat of the "Protoman" of the Mega Man X series, but there is a reason that Zero owned this match in the way that he did. The Mega Man X series, aside from being quite the challenge in early installments, features a character in Zero who does everything that Protoman does, only much, much better. It may have been hard for some Mega Man fans to decide who to vote for, but for everyone else, the choice was simple. Zero didn't do better than Aeris against Sonic last year for no reason, and when the dust settled from this match, Zero managed to pull in almost 72% of the vote in a match that saw over 81000 total votes. No easy task.

I simply hope that Protoman doesn't go the way of Raiden. Raiden could be a decent, well-desrving mid-carder in these contests, yet because of one first round SFF blowout, Raiden did not return to the field this year. Despite what these results may show, Protoman deserves to be here. Hopefully he returns.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:10:54 AM | Message Detail
Okay, I'm going to go and get some sleep. I need it.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 11:54:47 AM | Message Detail
20XX Round 1: (6)Frog vs (11)Liquid Snake

(6)Frog - 43913 (50.05%)
(11)Liquid Snake - 43820 (49.95%)
Total Votes - 87733
Vote Difference - 93
Prediction Percentage - 44.33%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b13.jpg

I barely even know where to start on this one. Due in large part to creativename's sig during the entire 2003 offseason, Frog gathered a lot of board support by the time the nomintion page opened up. CJayC even mentioned "a strong fan drive" that got Frog into the field this year.

Okay, so most of the board nominated Frog, and we wound up in the field. That's nice. What followed after Frog's acceptance into the contest was one of the greatest epics ever seen in this contest. Frog vs Liquid Snake was wound up being what we were hoping to see from Tidus vs Shadow, and the best part of it all is that this match hit us from well out in left field.

Coming into this contest, Frog was expected to dominate a fourpack consisting of Frog, Liquid Snake, Master Chief, and Crash Bandicoot with ease. After all, Crono has been taking names in every contest, and the belief is that due to Crono's performances, Chrono Trigger itself has gotten more popular. Chrono Trigger itself getting into the finals of the Spring Contest certainly helps the claim. As the match drew closer, a couple of people mentioned that Liquid Snake could very well make a run at the match, and most of them were laughed at.

Aren't unexpected close matches fun to watch? In the very beginning of the poll, Frog jumped out to the early lead, but instead of letting Frog run away with the poll with ease, Liquid Snake soon fought back. Liquid began chipping away at Frog's percentage fairly quickly, though in terms of the vote gap, Frog managed to hold his own. Frog eventually recovered from Liquid's small push and began building his lead again. However, with every small push that Frog made, Liquid managed to hold his own and avoid being rolled over. Despite the fact that Frog retained control of the poll throughout the first few hours, Liquid constantly made small pushes at Frog's slim lead of only a few hundred as if to let everyone know that the match was far from being over.

Despite all of Frog's efforts during the early vote and the morning vote to put Liquid Snake away, he failed to do so. Despite all of Frog's best efforts, the biggest lead that he was able to manage was 480 votes. That's it. It was at this point that the day vote kicked in, and it was at this point that Liquid decided to make a move of his own. Anyone who has been following these contests knows that the day vote is never kind to Chrono Trigger. Crono, Magus, and even Chrono Trigger itself in the spring all managed to suffer during the day vote. And this is where all of Frog's problems began. If characters like Crono and Magus had problems during the day vote, then how could Frog, who is a very distant third in terms of the most popular characters in the game in the first place, avoid the same problems?

(continued)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/5/2004 11:54:54 AM | Message Detail
Raiden from Metal Gear Solid 2 shouldn't return.

However, Raiden from Mortal Kombat should show up just for the heck of it.

^_^
---
"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: maplejet | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:14:11 PM | Message Detail
Taking a while to write-up, eh?
---
R.I.P Mario, 9/20/2004, Mega Man 10/1/2004
Will always be the winners to me, no matter how bad they do
From: the jp | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:19:14 PM | Message Detail
Thanks Ulti. You just inspired me to the perfect sig.
---
Aeris loves you.
From: the jp | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:20:51 PM | Message Detail
Ta-Da
---
Nominate Aeris for SC2k5!! Cause we don't need another Tanner in the contest! \/^.^|/
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:31:55 PM | Message Detail
As the day vote began, Liquid Snake began making a push of his own. Frog's 480 vote lead soon started getting smaller and smaller, and even though Liquid never managed any massive, constant pushes on Frog's lead, he still kept a slow, methodical pace. As Liquid constantly used the day vote against Frog, the best thing that Frog was able to manage was to occasionally stall Liquid's advance. But even then, Liquid kept managing to chip away at Frog's lead. Frog tried as hard as he could to fight back, but by the time the evening rolled around, Liquid proved to be too much for him.

Much like the Chrono Trigger/Link to the Past match in the spring, the match between Frog and Liquid Snake was tied before the evening rolled around. The typical evening demographic favors Square, but Liquid seemed to care less about this. Much like the Chrono Trigger/Link to the Past match in the spring, Frog and Liquid Snake defied any and all voting patterns in the dogfight that was to follow.

For the next few hours of the poll, Frog and Liquid Snake went at it like animals (bad pun, I know =p). For every small push that Liquid made, Frog was able to counter and keep the match close. Every time one character looked like he was going to pull away and begin building a lead in the match, the other character was able to counter and pull the match even again. This match was unlike CT/LTTP in that during the time that Frog and Liquid were tied, both characters were constantly making pushes to try and separate themselves from the other. In CT/LTTP, Chrono Trigger was the entrant constantly breaking away from its opponent, while LTTP was the one constantly trying to catch up. Frog/Liquid was different. Through the entire evening, there were no subtle hints as to which character would be the one to finally break away and win the poll. The two simply went at it as if they were in a war, and the loser would likely be the first one to blink. Through the entire evening, we were constantly seeing a pattern of one character going ahead by a little bit, with the other character fighting back and refusing to give up. No matter who you were rooting for to win, seeing two characters stay dead even for a time period of several hours was truly a sight to behold.

Unfortunately for Liquid Snake however, Frog was the one to finally make a major push at winning the match. As the evening wore on, Frog finally found enough of the evening Square voting pool to draw from, and after a slow push that was similar to the way Frog built his lead in the beginning of the poll, Frog managed to slowly build a lead of 170 by the time 1 AM rolled around.

But even still, what happened in the next two hours made Frog's win look very unconvincing. Frog's advance came to an absolute halt at 1 AM, and Liquid Snake, ever the "Why the **** won't you just die?" character if there was one, began a desperate final push at Frog's lead. Unfortunately for Liquid, it was too late. There were not enough votes coming in at that point in the poll for him to stage a comeback, and it was clear after an hour that Frog's incoming votes would have to stop altogether in order for Liquid to win the match. Despite all of Liquid's efforts to make a huge push in the match, it soon became clear that it would take a small miracle for him to pull it out.

(continued)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:33:35 PM | Message Detail
ooh, so THAT'S how it happened, i was under the impression it was just really close.

*shrug*
---
"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: Garsha | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:44:52 PM | Message Detail
Ulti, can you mention about the three perfect brackets who picked Tanner to win? Do it for me...
---
boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=16613027 - Vote
Pwned by nifboy on the SC2K4 Guru Contest!
From: jonthomson | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:50:12 PM | Message Detail
Great stuff so far Ulti, keep this thing up.
---
Jon Thomson - nifboy > me
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 12:56:46 PM | Message Detail
Liquid Snake made a nice push in the final two hours of the poll, but the only thing that there was to root for was for the vote difference in the match to be as close as possible. It was clear that Liquid wasn't going to win, but at least he has a place on the "Closest Matches of All Time" list. A 93 vote difference is nothing to sneeze at, and you only have to wonder if things could have been different had Liquid started his final push an hour earlier. Another thought to ponder is how this match would have turned out had Liquid started his day vote comeback an hour or two earlier.

The problem in analysing this match is that both characters were brand new to the field when coming into it. There are a lot of ways to look at how each character did, though a majority opinion was reached when looking at them both in a positive and megative light.

*Chrono Trigger spoilers*

-
-
-
-

First, look at Frog. It was nice that he got into the field, but when you look at him as a character, it's very easy to argue that Frog doing well in this poll was little more than him leeching off the popularity of Crono, Magus, and Chrono Trigger as a whole. Frog's entire character is based off of Magus. Frog's best friend was killed by Magus, and Frog himself was turned into a frog in the process. This is tragic for the little guy, but the way he handled it was pathetic. He did little more than sit down in his little hole whining about his fate all the time. When you meet him, he whines about how how powerless he is. He is always toying with whether or not he should join the party, but no matter how much you try to help him, he constantly goes back into his little hole to whine about everything. As ebents progress, you learn that the only way to defeat Magus is with the Masamune, and you also learn that Frog is the only character who can wield the sword. So naturally, given that Frog can do little more for himself but sit and whine in his little hole, you have to go find the Masamune parts and get the sword fixed for him.

But that's fine, right? Given that Frog was such a pain in the ass to get in your party in the first place, he surely has a positive effect when you finally get him in your party for good. After all, he must have some huge in-battle secret that has been hidden for all this time, right?

Yeah, the secret is that Frog absolutely sucks in battle. He is outdone physically by three other characters, and his most powerful spell is Water 2. The only way for Frog to be of any use whatsoever is for him to constantly be in critical status so that Frog Drop may cause damage. You can also commit Frog to using Dual Techs, but then you're wasting the turns of other characters when they would likely be better off doing damage for themselves.

But all that being said, Frog's attitude once Magus joins your party is priceless. Instead of growing some manlihood and trying to understand Magus's past, as well as his intentions, Frog does nothing more than sit there like a ball of snot and keep to himself about everything. Later in the story, Magus's entire past is laid out in front of you, and Frog still acts like a selfish ball of snot about everything. All he cared about was a duel with Magus. That's it. He's a bad character with little to no development at all, and he sucks in battle. If he isn't a prime example of someone who did well in the contest because of leeching, I don't know what is.

(continued)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:00:38 PM | Message Detail
If he isn't a prime example of someone who did well in the contest because of leeching, I don't know what is.

Um, some giant pig would like to have a word with you.
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:01:26 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:02:22 PM | Message Detail
chococid, will you stop making a comment after every single post I make? It's annoying, and it does nothing but waste space.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:04:00 PM | Message Detail
*glances at slowflake*

>_>

<_<

Fine, post deleted.

and nice job taking 500 in your own topic.

I got 499, which is probably the closest i've ever came.

and the TAGS DON'T WASTE SPACE?!
---
"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: I am NotYou | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:05:16 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, don't think I've ever posted in any of Ulti's topics.

Hello Ulti!
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Third from the bottom. Kudos to me on the stellar ranking. :)- Snailien
From: the jp | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:06:33 PM | Message Detail
Hear Hear Ulti. You put that perfectly.
---
Nominate Aeris for SC2k5!! Cause we don't need another Tanner in the contest! \/^.^|/
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:19:31 PM | Message Detail
*Metal Gear Solid spoilers*

-
-
-
-

Liquid Snake, while clearly a better character than Frog, is equally difficult to look at. There is no way to tell whether or not Liquid is weaker than Solid by a great deal, whether or not he comes close to Solid, whether or not he leeches off of Solid, or whether or not Liquid's stock went up simply due to bracket voting. If you noticed, over half of all brackets had Liquid Snake winning this match. If for nothing else, this proves that Liquid has more mainstream exposure than Frog does. And while Frog is busy pulling his best Alice In Chains impersonation (they have a song called "Down in a Hole", for those who don't listen to them), Liquid Snake takes his unfavorable fate and does something with it. Using a group like FOXHOUND to fit your own desires is not an easy task, and even though Ocelot had his own intentions the entire time, he still managed to assist Liquid in his plot. Liquid Snake was so damned good at what he was doing that despite the fact that he could have theoretically done Solid in whenever he chose, he instead chose to toy with him. This, along with Liquid believing that he was the inferior sibling in the Les Enfants Terrible project, were Liquid's only weaknesses. Had Liquid acted to the fullest extent of his power without beleving himself to be inferior, I fully believe that he could have beaten Solid Snake.

But regardless of all that, Liquid is clearly the better character than Frog, and comparing the two in battle is pointless. Frog's entire character is very easily summarized, while Liquid's character is being debated among Metal Gear Solid loyalists even today. Why did Liquid believe from the start that he was the inferior sibling, and why did he let this influence his actions? We may never know, and I demand that MWIS get in this topic and give me his opinion on the subject.

No matter who you were rooting for in this match, it is clear that some degree of respect needs to be given to both characters. Frog may be leeching off of the characters clearly better than him in Chrono Trigger, but regardless of this, he was still able to have enough power to win the match in the end. And Liquid, complete contest newcomer, managed to put up a fight that would allow this poll to go down as the closest wire-to-wire poll in contest history. It may be a very long time until we see another poll in which the largest gap is 480 votes or less at any point. I tip my hat to Liquid here, because even though he lost, he proved that he can cause some real damage in this contest given a bracket that favors his positioning. Another thing that I believed that this poll helped prove is that Liquid may very well be close to Solid Snake in popularity. It's hard to believe that both Liquid and Frog could be all that far away from him.
---
I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:34:28 PM | Message Detail
Great job so far Ulti!
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
From: prig | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:37:55 PM | Message Detail
I've only been through MGS: TTS once now, but I didn't really see such a resembelance between Solid and Liquid...
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Why should the world exist without me? That wouldn't be fair.
From: Kaidyn04 | Posted: 10/5/2004 1:43:17 PM | Message Detail
~Tag~
---
http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/profile.xml?15248 - FFXI character
SOCOM 2: Kaidyn
From: RedForman | Posted: 10/5/2004 2:37:00 PM | Message Detail
A very interesting read indeed.
---
u are not respected here. u r terminated. - JamesBrownFan to ASHNOD
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/5/2004 3:09:31 PM | Message Detail
I agree with everything in Ulti's analysis about Liquid Snake and Frog except that Frog is a totally kickass character who owns in all regards. Not to mention that being good in battle in Chrono Trigger isn't an incredibyl useful trait.

Anyway, continue.
---
SpC2k4: 162/192 ~ SC2k4: 187/192
A tribute to Glenn's eternal victories.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 3:25:02 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, sure, Frog's a great character. The only character more useless than him in battle is Marle, and his actual characterization is horrific. It pretty much boils down to "I whineth and cry'th in my little hole day aft'r day whilth e'eryone else dost mine work for me".
---
I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/5/2004 3:39:24 PM | Message Detail
Uselessness in battle is a weak expression in Chrono Trigger, considering that being good in battle won't really change the game.

Also, Frog's spirit is broken. Yours would be too if you had been subjected to what he was. Though I agree that he made a misjudgment in continuing his feud with Magus.
---
SpC2k4: 162/192 ~ SC2k4: 187/192
A tribute to Glenn's eternal victories.
From: Dorami | Posted: 10/5/2004 3:42:29 PM | Message Detail
...Haste is an awesome move in the first playthrough.
---
Never underestimate the awesomeness of the ninja.
Forget Jill - I want Ryu Hayabusa to have my children!
From: Conceited Bastard | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:04:01 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
Now you can disappoint two birds with one tiny stone! - animorph1000 on vgshogun having a threesome.
From: Infamus | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:06:41 PM | Message Detail
Tag
---
In FFX-2 you spend 80% of the game mashing X because your other hand is so damn busy. - Slowflake
From: MasterMage119 | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:07:23 PM | Message Detail
Hm. I never really cared about character's actual usefulness in battle when I made my team. This is evidinced by the fact that I always ran Crono, Marle, Frog... Also, I think I should be mentioned in the Frog vs. Master Chief battle. I even made my first ever analysis for that battle.
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I bow down to smitelf, Queen ***** of the Universe. Her intelligence, wit, and sexiness have consume’d me. Nifboy is an amazing, god-like diety.
From: Sins Tox1n | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:08:14 PM | Message Detail
I'm getting depressed. 2nd contest where I could have realisticlaly won if I hadn't amde a single mistake.

Spring: FFX fanboyism got in the way of rational thought. I pick SSBM to go all the way, I win 10 games

Summer: I put too much stock in new characters. If I'd realized how abysmal Rachet's performance was in 2003, I wouldn't have picked Jak over Ness. I knew how bad it was, but I for some reaosn thought jak was much much stronger. Stupid Stupid Stupid.

VJ was a bit harder call, but I really was stupid to think a new character could beat a staple of one of the most acclaimed series.

Ryu I totally bought into "old school hype". I quickly realized after it was too late tho that if he really had so much old school love, then he would have been nominated in 2002 and 2003.

So there's 4 points down the toilet. If I had gone completely against new characters, I'd have just missed the 2nd closest match in history (Jill-Ryu), and been among the 1st place 191 pt brackets.


So ya, Im getting really sick of coming up so short.
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Spring Contest Final score: 173/192 Tied for 110th
Summer Contest Final Score: 188/192 Tied for 23rd
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:12:09 PM | Message Detail

Spring: FFX fanboyism got in the way of rational thought. I pick SSBM to go all the way, I win 10 games


Had I not picked LttP to go to the finals and picked CT instead, I'd have won the contest.... it sucks royally.
---
"You take outside too seriously. Its not like you're gonna die if you don't go outside. Play a video game or something." - Princess Anri
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:43:34 PM | Message Detail
*CT SPOILERS*

The thing that doesn't make Frog a good character in my eyes is the fact that, if I were exposed to the level of information he had available in front of his eyes as to the condition of Magus' upbringing, I would have at least reacted in some manner. I may never forgive him for killing Cyrus, but after learning of how Magus was teleported through thousands of years, raised by Mystics, and the specifics of his plans for Lavos...I mean, how could you still want to kill the guy?

Magus isn't anything near a Osama bin Laden. Aside from killing off Cyrus -- a knight who drew his own sword against him -- there really isn't that much that would indicate that he wanted to kill off all of humanity. He was raised by a group of mystics who were mistreated and discriminated on by humans. You'd think after becoming animalic, and subsequently discriminated against, Frog would see where the mystics were coming from. Frankly, having visited the mystics' side of the world in 600 and 1000 AD, I felt more sympathetic for them than for Guardia or Porre.

The fact of the matter is that Magus isn't really evil at all. He attempts to save his world and his sister, and if he's raised to be cold and distant, the full blame can't exactly be forced upon him. If I had been thrust thousands of years in the future and raised by mystics, I'd have real reason to be pissed -- reasons far worse than just being turned into a Frog. If you think about it, Frog's condition isn't nearly as destablizing. He lost a best friend in combat (and combat casualities are a reality of war), and he's no longer fully human, but he's in a time period he recognizes -- and I don't think Queen Leene or any of his other friends held Frog's new status as an amphibian against him. In other words, Frog's solitude and loneliness are self-enforced, (given that Frog doesn't speak to many others, it seems like he was a bit of a loner even back when he was Glenn, only choosing to befriend Cyrus).

Magus, on the other hand, is shaped entirely by his mother, his sister, Ozzie, and an exceptionally harsh -- I'd argue abusive -- childhood. Furthermore, whereas Magus is never exposed to any information that would make him feel empathy for Frog (hell, Ozzie and the mystics probably taught him to despise humans), Frog is exposed to Magus' entire life story. He's also expsoed to the low quality of life for mystics beyond human "civilization".

And Frog still wants to kill the guy to avenge an old friend? Yeesh, the way he idolizes Cyrus, I'd expect them to have been homosexual lovers. The thing is, from Frog's perspective, we have this image of Cyrus as a noble, perfect human being. Bullcrud. Given Guardia's low opinion of the mystics I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if a serious soldier like Cyrus murdered thousands. War is war. Battle is battle. Magus shouldn't be held completely responsible for killing Cyrus when Cyrus -- if given the chance -- obviously would have done the same thing.

But do you see the difference in characterizations? Both Frog and Magus suffer through horrific experiences throughout their lives. The difference is that Magus, even despite the fact inarguably coming from a WORSE livelihood than Frog, is capable of putting aside his emotions...and he'll even work side by side with the enemy. If Frog was given the choice, he would have killed Magus then and there. It was the interjection of the other party members that prevented that duel (should you have chosen to spare Magus). But despite the fact that from Magus' perspective, Crono and company created much more trouble in 10,000 BC than they solved, he still offers to join you to kill Lavos.

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:44:02 PM | Message Detail
Sacrifice is the measure of a man, and sacrifice doesn't always mean loss of life. In coming to the realization that Crono and company (despite the fact that they were human, despite the fact they were enemies he had every reason to dislike) could actually help him by fulfilling a common goal in the destruction of Lavos, Janus Zeal makes a very painful desicion. But by suffering through his assiocation with the people he may have very well once despised, Magus proves his manlihood and takes responsibility for his actions and for the condition his world.

In effect, when Crono sacrifices himself to Lavos, he makes a similar desicion.

Thus, despite the fact that there's absolutely nothing else to Crono's character I still consider Crono a more valuable character than Frog.

And here's something that all you CT newbies seem to forget: even more impressive than Magus 'defecting' to your side in the first place is the fact that he actually aids you in fighting the very man who raised him as a child. Magus may never come out and say it, but by battling Ozzie he is battling a man to whom he owes his life. By battling Ozzie, Magus has proven -- through actions, not words...that he had matured enough to realize that the particular mystic who he once considered a friend was actually corrupt and repressive.

In what greater way could a man prove his virtue, his maturation? Magus, in effect, takes on his mother by battling Queen Zeal. He takes on his adopted father by battling Ozzie. He challenges the very way in which he had once viewed his life and he adapts and grows through the process of living.

All of this Frog thoroughly lacks, and that's why I'm absolutely appalled to consider that some so-called CT "Gods of knowledge" consider Frog the superior character.

Frog is a vengeful, rotten excuse of a poor swordsman who can't get over a grudge despite everything he learns. Even getting some closure in the optional Cyrus sidequest doesn't result in Frog doing or saying much of anything in regards to Magus. He's the Garbling of Chrono Trigger; a shut-in with a pathetically middle-ages sense of 'patriotism', 'honor' and 'valour' - pathetic in the sense that he wouldn't apply those same levels of decency to mystics or anyone from any other culture. A man who seems to wallow in self-pity. And meanwhile, Magus, a man who has even more reason to pity himself given his circumstances and origins, is far more willing to bite the metaphorical bullet to save the world and those he cares for.

What always shocks me when I talk to to newbies who have no clue how to analyze CT is how many come to the conclusion that Frog deserves adulation. As a character in battle, he is worthless. But as a character in terms of development and growth, he's even worse.

And though it's a different rant than the one Ulti was looking for from me, it's how I feel -- and it's why I love Magus, and hate Frog, in Chrono Trigger. I wonder if there are others out there who see it my way.

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:46:04 PM | Message Detail
Of course, that rant even excludes the fact that Magus' personality just reeks of badass to astronomical levels. But my point is that if you look beyond his quick wits and hostile tongue, and actually analyze Magus' actions as the story of Chrono Trigger develops, you're given far more factual evidence to growth and maturation than even Magus himself would ever want to admit.

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: Fearless Auron | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:52:21 PM | Message Detail
Frog's more developed than Magus IMO
---
"Farewell"
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:58:38 PM | Message Detail
::sigh:: Well, I tried.

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/5/2004 4:58:53 PM | Message Detail
MWIS just summed up in two posts... the perfect example of everything I don't give a hoot about in a character. Yikes.
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/5/2004 5:00:57 PM | Message Detail
Magus? I don't hate him, but I can certainly rant against him just as much as you can rant against Frog.

The truth is however that Magus and Frog both kick ass, and they are truly so similar.

Magus lives in a different era from his birth.
Frog lives in a different form from his birth.

Magus is vengeful, to the point of totally disregarding those to whom he should owe the uttermost of allegiance.
Frog is vengeful to the point of wanting to vanquish his one foe, Magus.

Why is Magus vengeful? He fights for his sister.
Why is Frog vengeful? He fights for Cyrus.

Bitter pasts.

Instability about joining your party.

Cool music.

---
SpC2k4: 162/192 ~ SC2k4: 187/192
A tribute to Glenn's eternal victories.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/5/2004 5:01:53 PM | Message Detail
MWIS just summed up in two posts... the perfect example of everything I don't give a hoot about in a character.

ECKS DEE
---
SpC2k4: 162/192 ~ SC2k4: 187/192
A tribute to Glenn's eternal victories.
From: Cerebral Ninja | Posted: 10/5/2004 5:05:31 PM | Message Detail
Tag
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/5/2004 5:06:33 PM | Message Detail
Err, Slowflake, is that a good thing or a bad thing? O___o

::runs::

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 5:54:05 PM | Message Detail
Thanks Ace, though the reason I IM'd you was to give a pro-Liquid rant more than anything ~_^
---
I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/5/2004 5:56:01 PM | Message Detail
Err, Slowflake, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

That was sarcasm, right?
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/5/2004 5:56:21 PM | Message Detail
Hey, gimme a break.

The Masamune made frog useful in battle.

Yeah, he sucked without it , but having Crono do Luminaire every round and Marle+Frog doing (i believe) Arc Impulse was more than enough for me to beat the game.

Seriously, there's no need to uberize that game, easy as it was.

Not bashing it, but it was easy. Fun, despite the ease. *shrug*

When your only death is due to starting a battle against Son of Sun with ice2 and water2 (before the ice2 resolves) and getting killed by 10 counterhits...

yeah.

>_>

I did not make that mistake a second time.
---
"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/5/2004 5:58:46 PM | Message Detail
That was sarcasm, right?

No. I'm actually curious as to what you really think. O_o

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/5/2004 6:04:17 PM | Message Detail
And as for a pro-Liquid rant: He deserved to win, and I could rant for ages as to why, and maybe sometime soon I will.

And three MGS characters deserve to be in this contest. I'm hoping Solid and Liquid come back and frankly, I wouldn't mind if Ocelot, Mantis or Raiden joined them. I'd choose Ocelot first, though, just because he's actually in all three MGS's. Actually, I'd take Ocelot post-MGS3 over Liquid, but I'm hoping Liquid comes back too.

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: sidharta | Posted: 10/5/2004 6:11:20 PM | Message Detail
My biggest question about Magus is this:

If he really did change, and that he was really ready to make-up with humans, then why didn't he change Frog back to normal?

If anything just to prove that he's willing to make peace with humans.

From what I heard, he's just helping your party to avenge himself of the people who use him (the mystics).

---
<In the process of looking for a new sig.>
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/5/2004 6:13:26 PM | Message Detail
Did Frog ever ask?

Magus ain't no mind-reader. I don't remember Frog ever asking him to change him back, which is just further proof that he has absolutely no guts whatsoever.

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: plasmabeam | Posted: 10/5/2004 6:39:40 PM | Message Detail
hmm.. Ulti you're right. i never noticed that Frog's character took a nosedive, after magus joins the party.

---
Ben Franklin said it best: "The only things certain in life are death, taxes, and Chris Rix blowing the Miami game" - mario incandenza
From: MasterMage119 | Posted: 10/5/2004 6:42:51 PM | Message Detail
hmm.. Ulti you're right. i never noticed that Frog's character took a nosedive, after magus joins the party.


I don't usually comment on things like this but after MWIS's HUMONGOUS write-up on the matter, why in GOD'S NAME would you choose to only acknowledge Ulti?
---
I bow down to smitelf, Queen ***** of the Universe. Her intelligence, wit, and sexiness have consume’d me. Nifboy is an amazing, god-like diety.
From: shin ramza | Posted: 10/5/2004 6:48:06 PM | Message Detail
I don't usually comment on things like this but after MWIS's HUMONGOUS write-up on the matter, why in GOD'S NAME would you choose to only acknowledge Ulti?

You just reminded me of something...

*waves "Go Ulti!!!" flag*

Yeah! Do the best job of anyone here!
---
"How many DBZers does it take to screw in a light bulb? One, but it takes 12 episodes."
From: hasekbowstome | Posted: 10/5/2004 7:04:56 PM | Message Detail
eh... tag.

gogoultigogo
---
http://diabloii.net/columnists/a-b-a-l-a-n-c-e.shtml -- my article
5/24/04 6:56-6:57 PM #5 I helped LUE count to 10!!!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 9:23:17 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Dorami | Posted: 10/5/2004 9:27:12 PM | Message Detail
Master Chief was on cruise control against Master Chief? I think that's the second time you did something like that in this topic.
---
Never underestimate the awesomeness of the ninja.
Forget Jill - I want Ryu Hayabusa to have my children!
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 10/5/2004 9:28:01 PM | Message Detail
Is it possible to have a bigger fall from grace than Crash Bandicoot?

*looks at Lara Croft*

*stares*

*continues to stare until she notices*
---
BtT: 3:48.46 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
I keep getting sig'd for the weirdest things lately - StW
From: Bigboi971986 | Posted: 10/5/2004 9:28:11 PM | Message Detail
BOO!
---
I think Firagana, Watergarean, Blizzagaran, and Thudagar should be the next Fire 4, Water 4, Ice 4, and Bolt 4.
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: smitelf | Posted: 10/5/2004 9:28:27 PM | Message Detail
Hey, Ulti, are you going to write a Post Election Analysis? Now that I'd like to see.
---
***Married to UltimaterializerX on 5/21/04***
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/5/2004 9:40:32 PM | Message Detail
20XX Round 1: (3)Master Chief vs (14)Crash Bandicoot

(3)Master Chief - 54469 (70.72%)
(14)Crash Bandicoot - 22552 (29.28%)
Total Votes - 77021
Vote Difference - 31917
Prediction Percentage - 76.58%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b14.jpg

Is it possible to have a bigger fall from grace than Crash Bandicoot? Here we have a guy who has gone from being a 2 seed in 2002 to being not just fodder in 2004, but fodder to an Xbox character. Master Chief's stock in this contest has a very bright future, but seeing anything remotely related to the Xbox score 70% in any poll whatsoever on this site means that the loser of such a poll, Crash Bandicoot in this case, needs to get out of the contest and make way for someone more deserving. No one cares about 3D platformer characters anymore, and it showed in this match. Some people might not like Master Chief, but it seems that no one likes Crash Bandicoot anymore. Easiest analysis ever =)

There was one interesting note to be drawn from this poll. While Frog was busy having the fight of his life against Liquid Snake, Master Chief was on cruise control here against Crash. Whether or not this meant the end of Xbox hate was yet to be determined, as was whether Halo's success had anything to do with Master Chief doing so well, but one thing we know for sure is that the Frog/Master Chief match looked mighty interesting after this day was done.
---
I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: higherlove | Posted: 10/6/2004 12:49:36 AM | Message Detail
tag


---
" I can taste more than feel, this burning inside is so real
I surrender all control, to the desire that consumes me whole " - Depeche Mode
From: redline15 | Posted: 10/6/2004 2:15:54 AM | Message Detail
responding to awesome possum's dissection of frog:

[chrono trigger spoilers]





i am assuming you're basing your position on the scene with magus after zeal is destroyed.
if that's not the case, feel free to skip this entire post and tell me so.
but if that is the case, most of the underlying theory is flawed...because frog is not held back by the rest of the party at any time in that scene.

cut and pasted from the chrono trigger game script faq:

---

Magus: So, it's you...

Frog: Magus!

Frog draws his sword.
[redline15's note: the rest of the party draws their weapons as well.]

Magus: Behold. Everything's at the bottom of the sea. Gone is the magical
kingdom of Zeal, and all the dreams and ambitions of its people. I once lived
there... But I was another person then.

There is a flashback to the main room of the Ocean Palace.
[cut by redline15 for space]

Frog: So! Thou art... thou art that filthy urchin!

Magus: ... Ever since Lavos's time portal stranded me in the Middle Ages...
I have waited to even the score. You interrupted me just when I had summoned
Lavos to my castle. How ironic that, having been drawn into yet another
portal, I would end up in this age. Being from the future, my knowledge of
the past enabled me to convince the Queen that I was a mighty oracle. But no
history book could have prepared me for what happened here. Unimaginable is
the power of Lavos. Anyone who dares to oppose... it... meets certain doom.
At this rate, you too, will meet a hideous fate. Just like that poor fool,
Crono!

Frog: ...! You dare to insult him?!

Magus: He's history! Play with fire and you get burned.

Frog: Magus!! Hold thy tongue!

Magus: You wish to fight me?

We'll do both options here, as they are greatly different.

[Yes]
[cut by redline15 for space]

[No]

Frog: Vanquishing thee will neither return Crono nor Cyrus.

Magus: ... Wait. I'll come with you.

Frog: Treachery!!

Magus: You know, there just might be a way to bring him back.

Frog: Nonsense...!?

Magus: Gaspar, the Guru of Time, knows how to restore lose or misplaced time
streams...

Magus may at this point be renamed... Anyone with any common sense would put
him in the party at this point. They'll head to the Epoch to visit Gaspar in
the End of Time. The game has other ideas though...


---

if you choose to fight magus, frog takes a petty revenge.
but if you choose to let him join you, frog sheathes his sword and decides, on his own, not to avenge his mentor.

it is true, as you say, that magus and frog never make amends after that scene.
but he does accept magus as a comrade, just like the rest of the party.
frog doesn't say a word against magus for the rest of the game...even during his scenes with cyrus, where any leftover bitterness would definitely come through.
there is not a shred of evidence that he continues to hold the grudge.

...in fact, the only bitterness comes from magus, who frequently treats the rest of the party like inferior worms in conversations.

...which they are, but he doesn't have to lord it over them.
---
redline15: irrepressible pessimist
From: the jp | Posted: 10/6/2004 3:25:46 AM | Message Detail
Actually that scene is not exclusive to Frog, I got with Marle more than once.
---
Nominate Aeris for SC2k5!! Cause we don't need another Tanner in the contest! \/^.^|/
From: Awesome Possum | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:55:34 AM | Message Detail
Frog: So! Thou art... thou art that filthy urchin!

Treachery! Nonsense! COMPLETE LACK OF CHARACTER DEVELOPMENT!


Much less some freakin' empathy. Magus ain't no filthy urchin.

---
"im aint a lunar cow"-Lunarhawk99
Best. shared. account. evar
From: sidharta | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:39:39 AM | Message Detail
Much less some freakin' empathy. Magus ain't no filthy urchin.

Would YOU show any empathy to your WORST ENEMY?
Bull**** if you said yes.

Magus may not be a filthy urchin to you, but Frog is entitled to his own opinions.

---
<In the process of looking for a new sig.>
From: BloodBlast | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:43:04 AM | Message Detail
tag
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:47:37 AM | Message Detail
Janus, who Frog is calling the "filthy urchin," wasn't exactly nice to the party either. "The black wind howls...One among you will shortly perish!" isn't the nicest way to introduce yourself.
---
"We ask for your strength...Thee who fear'eth the night and stand 'gainst the darkness." ~ Frog
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:59:44 AM | Message Detail
20XX Round 1: (7)Kefka vs (10)Knuckles

(7)Kefka - 35220 (42.54%)
(10)Knuckles - 47578 (57.46%)
Total Votes - 82798
Vote Difference - 12358
Prediction Percentage - 43.05%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b15.jpg

Don't let the final score of this match fool you. Knuckles was in quite a bit of trouble in this match for quite a long time. Coming into this poll, Knuckles was expected to break 60% on Kefka with absolute ease based off of 2003 numbers. When you factor in that both Luigi/Pac Man and Crono/Conker shoot down the theory of Crono/Kefka SFF in 2003, there was little reason to believe that Knuckles wouldn't be able to steamroll Kefka in this poll. Most of the people who follow stats already knew this, and anyone who dared bring up how they felt Kefka had a chance was laughed at.

But as the poll began, we were all shocked to see that Kefka was not only holding his own, but building a lead as well. Despite the Lettuce Kefka match pic, the fact that Knuckles was the overwhelming favorite on the board, and despite the fact that Knuckles was expected to break 60%, not just win, based off of 2003 stats, the board caught fire during the first few hours of this poll. Kefka's lead was relatively small -- around 130 votes at the most, if I recall -- but despite every attempt that Knuckles made to take Kefka's lead away, Kefka held his own and hung on tightly for the first few hours.

The board was fun to watch during this time, but after the Sega morning vote kicked in, Knuckles began doing what he was expected to do right from the start. Knuckles not only came back against Kefka with ease, but he made a massive push at the poll and never looked back. Still, Knuckles put forth a very disappointing performance despite recovering from his early setback. The entire theory of Crono/Kefka SFF in 2003 started coming up again, and whether or not it truly existed was the hot topic for the entire match.

Personally, I don't think this match proves that there was any SFF during Crono/Kefka at all. Take a look at the prediction percentage for this match. Well over 55% of brackets thought that Kefka was going to win this match despite Knuckles' past performances in this contest. There is also the Lettuce vs Enchilada factor; lettuce is far easier on the stomach than enchiladas for many people. Kefka getting the lettuce pic, in all seriousness, may have helped him get a large amount of the early support in the match. When you pair that with the bracket voters, it isn't hard to imagine Kefka taking the early lead. When you add all that to the people who fill out their brackets under the "Square characters always win close matches" clause, Kefka's performance doesn't come with as big a surprise factor as it did when we were all watching the poll in the first place. Something caused all of those people to go with Kefka, and it certainly couldn't have been last year's performance against Pac Man. Square could very well be on the rise in these contests, and thanks to the fact that Final Fantasy 6 has mainstream appeal on this site, Kefka could very well have been one of the recipients.

Crono/Kefka SFF in no guarantee simply because of this one match. I just feel that Kefka was an anomaly in the stats, and Knuckles helped prove my theory in the next round. Knuckles may be the weakest character to win a match in all three contests, but maybe this is because he's always stuck against Snake in the secound round? Just a thought.
---
I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Akuma519 | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:59:59 AM | Message Detail
Yay! Best part of the contest.
---
"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Unfortunately, the rest of the party is in the stomach of the Beholder."- Dork Tower Comics
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/6/2004 10:04:58 AM | Message Detail
Crono/Kefka SFF in no guarantee simply because of this one match.

When Knux was supposed to get 69.63% and ends up with 57.46%, I have to disagree with you. Either Kefka increased all by himself, or there was some SFF in his match with Crono. In fact, Kefka has the second largest increase out of anybody in the contest relative to Link 2k3, behind only Sora.
---
"We ask for your strength...Thee who fear'eth the night and stand 'gainst the darkness." ~ Frog
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/6/2004 10:21:54 AM | Message Detail
I think the SFF was minimal at best in that match. Given that Kefka had bracket support, Square support, and support from the people who like the lettuce pic, it isn't all that hard to imagine him going up by himself.
---
I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Thalandor46 | Posted: 10/6/2004 10:39:52 AM | Message Detail
Re-tag
---
There are 3 types of people in this world. Those who can count, and those who can't
My SC2K4 Bracket: http://www.geocities.com/sbslyrics/SC2K4.txt
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/6/2004 10:45:25 AM | Message Detail
Alright, I have to go to work. I'll try to get another writeup or two posted when I get home, which won't be for around 10 hours or so (10PM EST).
---
I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/6/2004 12:01:23 PM | Message Detail
I loved the beginning of that match. ;_;

Damned Knux fans...
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/6/2004 12:13:04 PM | Message Detail
Janus, who Frog is calling the "filthy urchin," wasn't exactly nice to the party either. "The black wind howls...One among you will shortly perish!" isn't the nicest way to introduce yourself.

No, but it's one of the coolest damn ways to permanently imprint yourself on the minds of gamers around the world.

>_>

Especially in the remake where it reiterated that line in the Lavos scene with Crono...

That was awesome. I had the sound off at the time, so it was like a silent film or something...
*SPOILERS

...


MASS

...

SPOILERS

...

SPOILERS I SAY!*


It showed Crono standing alone against Lavos, the others on the ground defeated.
Crono stands alone, then Magus looks up at Crono... Lavos opens the thing, and the text comes up, white on black..

"One among you...

Crono's eyes go wide, and his arms fall.

Shall shortly perish..."

*beam*


I'm not a big fan of the anime style at ALL, but in that scene, it was perfect.
Those of you who know me know that i really dislike anime, but that one scene has tempered it...

---
"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: plasmabeam | Posted: 10/6/2004 1:51:02 PM | Message Detail
I don't usually comment on things like this but after MWIS's HUMONGOUS write-up on the matter, why in GOD'S NAME would you choose to only acknowledge Ulti?

i was only reading ulti's posts

---
Ben Franklin said it best: "The only things certain in life are death, taxes, and Chris Rix blowing the Miami game" - mario incandenza
From: Infamus | Posted: 10/6/2004 2:17:59 PM | Message Detail
bump
---
In FFX-2 you spend 80% of the game mashing X because your other hand is so damn busy. - Slowflake
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 10/6/2004 3:23:17 PM | Message Detail
bump

---
Visit board 984, where having an opinion means you're a blind, ignorant fanboy, and a troll!
From: CompmanJX3 | Posted: 10/6/2004 3:37:51 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles may be the weakest character to win a match in all three contests.

Knuckles vs. Kirby might be a good match, but I didn't take time to look up how Kirby did in 2002.
---
I figured I should have a sig. So I have a sig.
From: outback | Posted: 10/6/2004 3:49:34 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: jonthomson | Posted: 10/6/2004 3:55:33 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles may be the weakest character to win a match in all three contests.

Excluding the noble 9, the only ones that qualify are Knuckles, Ryu and Dante. So that's a safe bet.
---
Jon Thomson - nifboy > me
Nominate Ridley for Summer Contest 2005
From: kramyenals | Posted: 10/6/2004 5:30:56 PM | Message Detail
retag
---
a man who envies our family, is a man who needs help
----Lisa Simpson
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/6/2004 5:33:14 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles vs. Kirby might be a good match, but I didn't take time to look up how Kirby did in 2002.

Kirby LOST in 2002. Knuckles would beat him regardless, of course.
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/6/2004 7:48:55 PM | Message Detail
The weakest character to have won a match in all three contests is Knuckles. No below him on any Xst list has won a match in all three contests.
---
I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: CompmanJX3 | Posted: 10/6/2004 7:52:15 PM | Message Detail
So he did, but I still think that Knux vs. Kirby could be good. It's really too bad so many people are "too cool" for kirby.
---
I figured I should have a sig. So I have a sig.
From: Chococid | Posted: 10/6/2004 7:54:46 PM | Message Detail
interesting.

what about 2 contests, for those who have only been in 2 contests?
---
RPG Elite (777) Dragoon Choco-Mage
From the ashes of Reito rose a new kami, and thereafter at every battle came Horobi, Death's wail.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 10/6/2004 7:56:39 PM | Message Detail
For two contests, Luigi would be the weakest to win in both.
---
I'd much rather be elitist than an idiot with a misconception that generalizes an entire board.~Bender1616
ZSB [aX]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:10:15 PM | Message Detail
(2)Solid Snake vs (15)Tanner

(2)Solid Snake - 74251 (94.3%)
(15)Tanner - 4492 (5.7%)
Total Votes - 78743
Vote Difference - 69759
Prediction Percentage - 97.27%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b16.jpg

Before this match, the two biggest examples of loser we ever had were Mr. Driller and Adventure. Adventure held the record for the lowest voting output, while Mr. Driller was considered the weakest character we ever had in the field.

In one 24 hour time period, this all changed. Solid Snake is a great character and all, but the only way for him to ever score 90% on someone is if they absolutely suck. Snake didn't just score 90, but he came damned close to hitting 95%. This says virtually nothing of Solid Snake's strength, but it says everything about just how much Tanner sucks.

How much does Tanner suck, you ask?

The aforementioned Mr. Driller and Adventure could each score well over 60% on him.

Take a good look at the 2003 Extrapolated standings. Every character above and including Tails could score 80% on him. Tails could score 80 percent!

But what's worse than all that is the fact that Gordon Freeman could look at Tanner, call him a ****ing loser, and not sound like a hypocrite.

When Gordon Freeman, the man who genuinely tries to lose every match he is involved with, can score over 80% on you, then you know you suck.

I love Solid Snake as much as anyone else, but he simply is not strong enough to score 90% in any match, and he's barely good enough to even break 80. Solid Snake was simply the benefactor of squaring off against the worst entrant we have ever had in one of these contests. To think that Tanner was seeded higher than Starcraft is a mockery. Danny Tanner from Full House could probably do better than Tanner did in this match. Tanner got into this contest for one reason, and one reason only. Remember Driv3r? Tanner stars in it, and it was released right smack in the middle of the nomination period. As much of a joke as Tanner is, the Driv3r games have all sold in the millions. Given how many characters are given support during the nomination period, it wouldn't take all too many people to allow Tanner to sneak in above the rest.

But I swear, if Tanner somehow manages to sneak back into the field next year, it's time to start hunting down the users who nominate him and allow a perfectly good contest slot to not be used on more deserving characters like Mewtwo, Zelda, Aeris, Geno, Rikku, or even Raiden, Sigma, Dr. Wily, and/or Shion. Anyone but Tanner.

I'm not trying to take away from Solid Snake here, because it's nice seeing him do this well in any match; however, something is seriously wrong when Solid Snake can score 90% in any poll. He simply isn't that strong, as his future matches would prove.
---
I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Chococid | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:14:39 PM | Message Detail
Danny Tanner from Full House could probably do better than Tanner did in this match.

Best. Quote. Evar.
---
RPG Elite (777) Dragoon Choco-Mage
From the ashes of Reito rose a new kami, and thereafter at every battle came Horobi, Death's wail.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:15:36 PM | Message Detail
I said the same thing about Tanner from the Bond movies, for the record. And that was before the match even happened.
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:17:14 PM | Message Detail
And for the record, according to the 2003 X-Sts, Tails could hit 90% on Tanner. And that's not including the various anomalies he's been involved with, because that score is supposed to be higher.
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:27:16 PM | Message Detail
More fun with numbers (read: SC2K4 X-Sts).

Common knowledge: 2004 Link would score 96.48%.

Now for other stuff...

Tails could score 91.89% on Tanner.

Everyone in the adjusted X-Sts all the way down to Protoman would score over 90%.

Gordon Freeman would get 86.87%

UNADJUSTED Ganondorf would get 85.45% on ADJUSTED Tanner. When adjusted, this score goes up to 94.56%.

Finally, Mr. Driller (last in 2002) would get 67.39%. Ms. Pac-Man (previous biggest loser in Summer Contests) would get 71.48%. Mr. Resetti (last in 2003) would get 77.88%. Guybrush (second to last in 2003) would get 82.08%
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:28:08 PM | Message Detail
Typo. Guybrush is second to last in 2004. Duh. Sorry.
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:32:20 PM | Message Detail
I love this topic. I keep on checking it on every post to see if more has been added. XD
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:32:24 PM | Message Detail
Forgot one: had it been Luigi facing Tanner instead, Megaman's blowout record would've been broken regardless.
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:49:37 PM | Message Detail
(1)Cloud vs (16)Milk Nukem

(1)Cloud - 71329 (80.19%)
(16)Milk Nukem - 17624 (19.81%)
Total Votes - 88953
Vote Difference - 53705
Prediction Percentage - 97.97%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b17.jpg

Cloud was supposed to get upwards of 82% in this match, but after Duke Nukem's picture was put on a milk carton for the match pic, how could you not vote for him? It was one of the single biggest acts of genius ever seen in the contests, and Duke rode the humor all the way to pulling an early lead against the Summer 2003 champion. It didn't last long of course, but seeing Duke benefit from having such a great match picture was fun to see, even if it only lasted a few seconds. Cloud went on to do quite well against Duke, and even managed to break 80% by the time all was said and done. However, Cloud did manage to underperform by around 2% by the time the poll was all said and done. Whether this could be attributed to the milk pic or a genuine underperformance remained to be seen at this point, but if you extrapolated the strength of Cloud and Link after their first round matches, Link would be expected to win with around 53% of the vote.

It could easily be argued that Cloud not matching Link's level could be blamed on the match pic of Cloud's opponent, but theoretically, what would happen if Cloud underperformed, or did nothing more but meet standard expectations at best, while Link did better than expected in every single match? It may not have been something to watch after one round, but as the contest progressed, comparisons between Cloud and Link could not be helped. After all, the only character who had even a remote chance of stopping Cloud was Sephiroth, and there was literally no one on Link's side of the bracket that could touch him. If this contest wasn't all about Link/Cloud beforehand, it was painfully obvious that it was all about the two after this match. Cloud may have underperformed by 2%, but the fact of the matter is that he still scored 80% on a character who is able to get in the second round in many cases. No easy task.

It was easy to still defend Cloud after this match, but would the same be possible as the contest progressed? We would see.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: GalacticMage777 | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:53:29 PM | Message Detail
Nice pace here. And happy 600th, Mr. Materializer.
---
.diputs ,thgir ot tfel morf daer ot desoppus er'uoY
My FFT Sequel Script [Part2up]: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=4838
From: greatone10 | Posted: 10/6/2004 8:54:10 PM | Message Detail
We need a chart to show just what percentage the contest participants can get on Tanner.
---
BertTheOne | Can't hurt this Bert
Never eat a stoner. We have powers you haven’t even seen!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:06:39 PM | Message Detail
Cool. I was only going to do one, but I got home early. I'm off to finish my Seph page on MMX's site, then I'm hitting the sack. I'm friggen beat.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Mr Igloo Bob | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:08:11 PM | Message Detail
Magus may never come out and say it, but by battling Ozzie he is battling a man to whom he owes his life. By battling Ozzie, Magus has proven -- through actions, not words...that he had matured enough to realize that the particular mystic who he once considered a friend was actually corrupt and repressive.

I'm a bit late for the CT debate, but thought I'd add my thoughts.

I've always felt that people who play the english version of CT are missing out terribly. Not only are countless references left out that would later be used as connections in Chrono Cross (leading the the popular misconception that Chrono Cross had nothing to do with CT), but translations were "Kiddy-ized" for a younger generation. There is no better example than for Magus.

The particular scene of which you speak had a much different meaning in the Japanese version. There is no maturation, or "once considered a friend", or any such thing in the Japanese original text. In fact, what we get is Ozzie making appeals to their friendship, while Magus basically throws back "fool, I only desired power, and used you to get it" in response. Magus never considered Ozzie a friend at all - he was a tool to be used because of his power with the Mystic race, that would allow Magus to achieve his goals.

Indeed, Magus is much more of a jerk in general, in the Japanese version. He's supposed to be genuinely evil, not misunderstood, as he appeared in the US version. In view of this, Frog's character seems much more realistic/correct, and if we were judging by the original text, much of Ulti's Frog bashing would be unwarranted.
---
RIP: zeal eternal - 150 karma, Igloo Bob - 210 karma
My non-evil mortal enemy: Materia Ashes
From: redline15 | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:38:44 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: redline15 | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:41:33 PM | Message Detail
In fact, what we get is Ozzie making appeals to their friendship, while Magus basically throws back "fool, I only desired power, and used you to get it" in response. Magus never considered Ozzie a friend at all - he was a tool to be used because of his power with the Mystic race, that would allow Magus to achieve his goals.

that was...pretty much the vibe i got from magus in the english version anyway.
mainly because ozzie accused him of that crime, and magus didn't deny it in the slightest.

In view of this, Frog's character seems much more realistic/correct, and if we were judging by the original text, much of Ulti's Frog bashing would be unwarranted.

well, most of ulti's frog bashing had to do with frog's moping.
...i can agree with that part.

but the rest of his bashing, and most of awesome possum's, seems unwarranted for both texts, since frog treats magus just as well as the rest of the party.

[edited out the last line because it's flamebait, and it's wrong anyway.]
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redline15: irrepressible pessimist
From: Merlin the Tuna | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:46:17 PM | Message Detail
I'd say that most of the Frog bashing was unwarranted regardless, as is most of Ulti's Sephy love, if not Cloud love as well.

But that's another story we're not getting into and we're going to let die so that this topic doesn't spiral horribly out of control.
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If bashing my head into the desk in frustration is a game, then I am the unstoppable 1337 mastah of it. -- AJYeary
From: redline15 | Posted: 10/6/2004 9:48:20 PM | Message Detail
yeah, okay, sorry...
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redline15: off-topic pessimist
From: Lopen | Posted: 10/6/2004 10:01:36 PM | Message Detail
Despite what the numbers would say, I still think that Solid Snake would do better than most characters (if not all) above him in the X-Stats against Tanner. I just don't see Snake getting many anti-votes at all. I wouldn't be surprised if Link or Cloud could only barely break 90%. I actually called this blowout before the match happened. Saying he'd do much worse than CATS or anybody else. Boy was I right. More right than even I anticipated.
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Not today samurai, not while I still live
From: Phoenix Flattener | Posted: 10/6/2004 10:24:14 PM | Message Detail
Cloud went on to do quite well against Duke, and even managed to break 80% by the time all was said and done. However, Cloud did manage to underperform by around 2% by the time the poll was all said and done."

And then, by the time Ulti was all said and done, he had used the cliche "all said and done" a record three hundred and eighty times by the time his thread all was said and done in being all said and done.

---
QCB, HCF + K.
Level 3 / SDM punishes any attempt at anything.
From: plasmabeam | Posted: 10/7/2004 5:16:28 AM | Message Detail
Danny Tanner from Full House could probably do better than Tanner did in this match.

>>>>XD

---
Ben Franklin said it best: "The only things certain in life are death, taxes, and Chris Rix blowing the Miami game" - mario incandenza
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/7/2004 8:23:15 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/7/2004 8:24:58 AM | Message Detail
Midgar Round 1: (8)Vyse vs (9)Laharl

(8)Vyse - 41440 (60.23%)
(9)Laharl - 27368 (39.77%)
Total Votes - 68808
Vote Difference - 14072
Prediction Percentage - 66.71%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b18.jpg

As much as I hate admitting this, this match was nothing more than two cult characters going at it.

TRANSLATION: Both characters suck in a contest setting, and we had to sit through a crapfest from the opening bell all the way until 3 AM. I love Laharl more than most people, and it would have been nice to see him win, but it was somewhat obvious that he didn't have much of a chance in this match. Vyse had everything going for him coming in. He was in the contest last year, so he has already had exposure in one of these contests. Skies of Arcadia made the Spring Contest, while Disgaea was busy sitting on the sidelines despite being one of the site's most popular new games between this year and last year. Vyse is also the main character in a decent little series, while Laharl, who is kickass in his own right, stars in a game that most people have never played. Vyse even had the indifferent/bracket voters going for him. When it comes to two characters that most people care about, the tendency is to go with who you're familiar with, hence because Vyse was in the contest last year, more of the people who could care less about either character would have gone with Vyse. When it came times to vote, Vyse also had a similar advantage. Put two things in front of any group of 100 people, and over half of them will always choose the first option. The first option in this poll happened to be Vyse.

Of course you could just say that Vyse was going to win because he has more exposure than Laharl, but what's the point in covering everything in one sentence? =)

As the match begun, it was clear that Vyse was going to have no problems winning the match, and by the end of it, Laharl failed to even break 40% on a character who was blown out by Donkey Kong. I love Laharl to death, but if this is the best he can do, then it might be better if he gave up his contest spot to someone who would be able to go down with respect. Imagine having to choose between Vyse and Mewtwo, for example. It would be much harder than this match. Another interesting note is that Team Rocket Elite, who was in first place on the leaderboard from day one in this contest, picked Laharl to win this match. His little run at the top (sadly) came to an end after this match =(

But I take solace in two facts, however. One, 1/3 of all people chose Laharl to win this match. That surely means that I'm not the only one out there who thinks that Laharl is one of the single greatest characters ever conceived. Two, Laharl may suck in contests, but even he could blow the holy hell out of Danny Tanner.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/7/2004 8:41:14 AM | Message Detail
Midgar Round 1: (5)Kirby vs (12)Kain

(5)Kirby - 52012 (64.65%)
(12)Kain - 28436 (35.35%)
Total Votes - 80448
Vote Difference - 23576
Prediction Percentage - 74.21%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b19.jpg

omg wtf doodz kain is teh awesum how culd you all vote for kirby he es just a dum pink ball wtf haev j00 a77 los tj00r midns?

That isn't Kain from Final Fantasy 4 up there, folks. That Kain from the Legend of Kain series. Since Raziel stunk it up for two straight contests, CJayC threw Kain into the mix instead of taking out the Soul Reaver clan completely. Nominations may have also played a part in this, but honestly, who knows. The Soul Reaver clan on the whole has yet to do squat in these contests, and honestly, wouldn't Strider have more of a place here than either Kain or Raziel? Strider took down Raziel in 2002, after all.

Regardless, whether it be Kain or Raziel wasting a contest slot, it's still wasting a slot that could be used on a more deserving character. Kain almost got doubled up by Kirby in this match, and even though Kirby kicks ass, he isn't the type of character who is strong enough to be able to do this in most cases. What gets me is the popularity of the Legacy of Kain series as a whole. Kirby's low prediction percentage, as well as Kain getting 35% in the first place, would suggest that the series has its fair share of fans, and because of this we may unfortunately be stuck watching Kain and/or Raziel getting their asses handed to them every year. I've played Soul Reaver, and I honestly don't get what the big deal is. It came off to me as having the gameplay of a vampiric Zelda more than anything, but it wasn't nearly as well-done.

In the end, we had another ho-hum match in a contest that had been ho-hum as a whole. With the exveption of two matches, virtually every match in the contest was like this. The winner was obvious, the match was boring to watch, and a shakeup was not only becoming a hope, but a necessity.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/7/2004 9:12:36 AM | Message Detail
Midgar Round 1: (4)Squall vs (13)Bomberman

(4)Squall - 52540 (64.75%)
(13)Bomberman - 28597 (35.25%)
Total Votes - 81137
Vote Difference - 23943
Prediction Percentage - 79.82%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b20.jpg

In 2002, Jill Valentine went through Kirby and Bomberman in order to reach the Sweet 16, with Kane from Command and Conquer being the odd man out. In 2003, Bomberman and Kirby got stuck in a fourpack with Alucard and Ramza, with Alucard being the one to go through both Bomerman and Kirby. Ramza was the weakest link, and he was left out.

In 2004, we have more of the same. Bomberman and Kirby are both thrown into the same fourpack as a character who is clearly stronger than both of them (Squall), and a contest newbie who is clearly weaker (Kain). I don't know if this is a running gag or what, but at least it fits. In all three contests, we have had a character go through Bomberman and Kirby en route to the Sweet 16. However this year, the character who was the benefactor of this position -- Squall in this case -- was royally screwed over. Squall deserved far better a reward for upending Jill Valentine and Luigi last year than being stuck in a company-based bracket in which his fate would be to get his ass mercilessly beaten all over the place by Cloud in the third round. In a better bracket, people could have underestimated or overestimated the holy hell out of Squall. In this bracket, his role was all to clear. Beat up the weaker characters, then take the expected loss to Cloud. But more on that later in the contest.

Based off of 2003 numbers, Bomberman was only projected to get 30.88% on Squall in this match. He did nearly 5% better than what he was projected to, which bodes a few questions about the Final Fantasy 8 lead. First off, what was going on here? How could Squall return back to his 2002 level while characters such as Link, Cloud, and eventually Sephiroth, were all performing up to their current standards? Did Squall take a drop between last year and this year, or was it possible that Luigi and Jill were simply far weaker than what we first anticipated? Whether Squall truly took a dive or not remained to be seen, but if this had anything whatsoever to do with the Kingdom Hearts Factor wearing off, then this could only mean good news for Link. It was nice seeing Bomberman doing so well, but to see a match off by almost 5% of the original projection with little to no reasons is very odd.

Personally, I think that Luigi and Jill Valentine are simply far weaker than everyone thought after the 2002 contest, and that Squall looked stronger in 2003 than he truly is. Take creativename's 2004 Xsts as an example. Despite Squall's underperformance against Bomberman, 2004 numbers project Luigi getting 38.81% against Squall, and they project Jill Valentine to get a mere 34.89%. Squall's aura of power had little to do with Squall being that good on his own. Luigi and Jill simply made him look that way. I'm not saying Squall did nothing on his own, but when he can take an appeared dive in 2004 yet be projected to blow away some of his 2003 numbers regardless, it puts the strength of his opponents, not Squall himself, into question. For all we know, Squall may very well have remained constant across all three contests.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/7/2004 9:14:24 AM | Message Detail
Alrighty, i'm going to work. I'll only have the time to do one writeup tonight, so I won't be able to get back in the full swing of things until Friday night. With any luck, I'll be able to pound out a great deal of these things over the weekend. I have the entire thing off.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/7/2004 9:35:30 AM | Message Detail
...work?! WORK?!?!?!

*boos Ulti out of the topic*
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/7/2004 10:36:08 AM | Message Detail
Hey now, don't boo me for that. I avoided bashing Squall, which says a lot.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/7/2004 10:44:59 AM | Message Detail
I hope you're just holding your best material for another neverending Crono bashfest, personally.
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Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/7/2004 10:53:06 AM | Message Detail
=)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/7/2004 10:54:10 AM | Message Detail
Hey, the ***** deserves it.
---
Brother. Sister. Remote. Sex. Ninjas. By your powers combined, I am Captain Incest! -Stealth Snake Zero
From: Haste2 | Posted: 10/7/2004 11:54:31 AM | Message Detail
Did Squall take a drop between last year and this year, or was it possible that Luigi and Jill were simply far weaker than what we first anticipated?
Possibly neither. I think Kirby, Bomberman, and Alucard were all stronger than we originally expected. Remember RPGuy's hypothesis that Alucard didn't do quite as well as he was supposed to against Sephiroth in 2K3?

Also, Bomberman was the weak link in the Alucard/Bomberman/Kirby/Ramza 4-pack...it would be close, but Ramza would beat Bomberman.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/7/2004 11:58:57 AM | Message Detail
Vyse is also the main character in a decent little series

Decent? You need to either replay it or go play it for the first time. ^_^

And I wish it was a series. =(
---
M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 10/7/2004 12:09:36 PM | Message Detail
Another interesting note is that Team Rocket Elite, who was in first place on the leaderboard from day one in this contest, picked Laharl to win this match. His little run at the top (sadly) came to an end after this match =(

=D Just one thing, I didn't actually make the Top 50 until after Round 3 not Round 1. After Round 3, everybody on the Top 50 after Round 2 disappeared. I'm not sure if they disappeared due to a glitch or because CjayC fixed the glitch that caused them to rank so high in the first place. But I guess I came out on top in the end, it took me until Round 63 to do it, but I made it back onto the Top 50 only to wonder if my 51000 Tiebreaker is good enough to keep me there. Another thing of note was we had 5 Gurus on the Top 50 before Vyse vs Laharl. All five of them had Laharl winning and they were the only five perfect gurus who had Laharl.
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***nifboy is my God!***
nifboy decimated me in the Summer 2004 Contest!
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/7/2004 12:34:26 PM | Message Detail
Ah yes, Vyse/Laharl. First match I got wrong as well.

>_<

*rants*

WHERE ARE THE SRPG FANS?
---
"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: Hayato Nekketsu | Posted: 10/7/2004 1:12:38 PM | Message Detail
Laharl deserved better. T_T

*disguised late tag*
From: TheBeastWithin | Posted: 10/7/2004 3:21:23 PM | Message Detail
Kain and Raziel are actually very good characters, even if their games aren't the greatest. They both have interesting stories, well done personalities, and are voiced by a couple of excellent voice actors, in Simon Templeman and Michael Bell.

Also, the Soul Reaver games aren't the best in the series. The original Blood Omen was one of my favorite games for the PS.
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Run you pigeons, it's Robert Frost!
From: imdapartystar | Posted: 10/7/2004 3:30:34 PM | Message Detail
it's time to start hunting down the users who nominate him and allow a perfectly good contest slot to not be used on more deserving characters like Mewtwo, Zelda, Aeris, Geno, Rikku, or even Raiden, Sigma, Dr. Wily, and/or Shion.

I love you Ulti.
---
Summer Contest Score 187/192
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 10/7/2004 4:31:12 PM | Message Detail
Ulti, Skies of Arcadia/Skies of Arcadia: legends isn't a series, and it's far, far, far better than decent, probbaly the best RPG ever.

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Visit board 984, where having an opinion means you're a blind, ignorant fanboy, and a troll!
From: GalacticMage777 | Posted: 10/7/2004 5:15:30 PM | Message Detail
TAG² is equal to...

TAG
TAG
TAG
---
.diputs ,thgir ot tfel morf daer ot desoppus er'uoY
My FFT Sequel Script [Part2up]: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=4838
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/7/2004 8:50:31 PM | Message Detail
Midgar Round 1: (6)Ness vs (11)Jak

(6)Ness - 40130 (55.08%)
(11)Jak - 32733 (44.92%)
Total Votes - 72863
Vote Difference - 7397
Prediction Percentage - 54.16%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b21.jpg

This match was the perfect example of an overrated, overhyped dud. When the bracket first came out, this match was one of the few that was heavily debated before hand. The question, of course, is why? One of the many running themes in this contest was that few people will vote for 3D platformer characters despite the games all selling well, and Jak fit into that mold very well. Because of Ness and Earthbound not having a good contest history, Ness was unfairly treated like a joke coming into this match.

There are only two matches that you needed to look at in 2003 in order to make a solid prediction in Ness/Jak: Luigi vs Ratchet, and Bowser vs Ness. Bowser is much stronger than Luigi is, yet Luigi's percentage on Ratchet came very close to what Bowser's percentage was on Ness. For Luigi to have such a close percentage to Bowser, he would have to have faced an opponent much weaker than Ness. If that wasn't a blatant hint as to how Ness/Jak would go, then there was one other number of intrest. Assuming no Bowser/Ness SFF, Jak would need to be able to beat Ratchet with at least 60% of the vote to be considered as strong as Ness. If you add in the possibility of Bowser/Ness SFF, that number gets much higher. Yet despite all of this, the Jak supporters on the board remained strong in their beliefs that Jak's mainstream exposure, Jak and Daxter's sales, and Ness's cult status would equal a win for Jak. I, like many others, had the belief that Ness's cult status didn't matter. Mainstream voters don't vote in our polls; we do. The average person might not know who Ness is, but most of the people who visit GameFAQs -- a site that favors console RPGs above all other genres -- are hardcore gamers. And most hardcore gamers know who Ness is, be it from Earthbound or the Smash Brothers series.

When the poll started, Ness jumped out to a quick 1000 vote lead, and after the early morning vote kept the vote margain tied at 1000 for a time, the day vote favored Ness. He caught fire during that time, and rode the momentum all the way to a 55-45 blowout. I call this a blowout simply because if you went by board polls and/or BOP numbers, this poll was supposed to be dead even. The reality is that many people underestimated Ness simply because Ness, as well as Earthbound itself, bombed in past contests. But like I've said in every match involving them, no one cares about 3D platformer characters anymore. Jak is just another 3D platformer to this site, and he is no exception to the trend. His games may have sold well, but so did Tanner's. And Tanner is still trying to pull little pieces of shrapnel out of his skin over in the corner.

The fate of Ness may have been little more than getting killed by Auron in round two, but it was nice to actually see him win a match. Ness isn't the type of character who deserves to be treated like a joke. Save that for the likes of Gordon Freeman and Tanner =)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Sins Tox1n | Posted: 10/7/2004 8:58:42 PM | Message Detail
That Ness-Jak miss hurt. I actually computed all those numbers, and realized that Jak needed to be 10-15% more popular than ratchet, but threw it all out the window thinking "Jak 2 was a monster success".
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Spring Contest Final score: 173/192 Tied for 110th
Summer Contest Final Score: 188/192 Tied for 23rd
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 10/7/2004 11:26:44 PM | Message Detail
Assuming no Bowser/Ness SFF, Jak would need to be able to beat Ratchet with at least 60% of the vote to be considered as strong as Ness. If you add in the possibility of Bowser/Ness SFF, that number gets much higher.

According to the XS, Jak would get 72% on Ratchet. Picking him to win wasn't as bad a choice as you might think.
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Although being raped by Sora twice was incredibly painful, nothing can compare to being utterly destroyed by nifboy in the Guru challenge.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/8/2004 4:53:47 AM | Message Detail
I must say, I'm glad of the lack of extreme bias here. Great stuff
.
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SpC2k4: 162/192 ~ SC2k4: 187/192
A tribute to Glenn's eternal victories.
From: neoblackmage | Posted: 10/8/2004 6:12:56 AM | Message Detail
eh, i don't want to see a SINGLE 3dplatformer character return. EVER.

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"I AM THE BLACK MAGE! I CASTS THE MAGIC SPELLS THAT MAKES THE PEOPLES FALL DOWN!" RPGE777:ChocoCid
From: swirldude | Posted: 10/8/2004 1:38:06 PM | Message Detail
eh, i don't want to see a SINGLE 3dplatformer character return. EVER

You want to boot Mario?
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I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush ~SuperLuigiBros
Nifboy pwned me with a plunger!
From: Yesmar | Posted: 10/8/2004 2:16:39 PM | Message Detail
I still don't get what Crono/Conker has to do with Crono/Kefka SFF.
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I was PWNed by nifboy, ps2rulezz, and Hogasm.
From: Garsha | Posted: 10/8/2004 2:19:22 PM | Message Detail
Ulti has such little faith in Luigi and Kefka. Kefka/Knuckles clearly has shown that Kefka suffered SFF against Crono.
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boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=16704793 - Vote
Pwned by nifboy on the SC2K4 Guru Contest!
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 10/8/2004 4:31:29 PM | Message Detail
bump

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Visit board 984, where having an opinion means you're a blind, ignorant fanboy, and a troll!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/8/2004 4:39:05 PM | Message Detail
Any SFF that Kefka suffered in that match was minimal, I think.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/8/2004 5:34:28 PM | Message Detail
Midgar Round 1: (3)Auron vs (14)Scorpion

(3)Auron - 58404 (64.85%)
(14)Scorpion - 31660 (35.15%)
Total Votes - 90064
Vote Difference - 26744
Prediction Percentage - 70.14%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b22.jpg

No one really knew what to expect of this match, except that most people knew that Auron would win with ease. The question, of course, was by how much. Scorpion was projected to score 43.06% on Auron going by the 2003 numbers, so naturally, a lot of questions can obviously be raised after seeing that Auron not only beat his projected percentage, but blew it away completely. Any one of a hundred reasons could be blamed for this, but I think that two stand out from the rest.

First and foremost, it could easily be argued that Auron suffered a good deal of SFF against Cloud in 2003. The 2003 Xsts are currently unadjusted for SFF, so Auron may look far weaker than he truly is based off of 2003 numbers. But if this were true, then this would mean that Tails would have to be stronger than expected as well. Since this was not possible to know at the time (Tails had not yet had his match), this was merely a speculation.

Secondly, Scorpion went down in strength from 2002 to 2003 despite having Deadly Alliance released in the time period between the contests. To my knowledge, Scorpion appeared in no games between 2003 and 2004. With that in mind, what reason could there be to believe that he didn't take another fall in strength? If he can go down despite a new game, there is little reason to believe that he wouldn't go down while appearing in nothing. It's quite possible that Auron's performance was a combination of Cloud/Auron SFF as well as Scorpion's weakness as well, but as the contest progressed, it became clear that it was more a Cloud/Auron SFF factor than it was the strength, or lack thereof, of the two characters in the match.

Summary: Everyone knew Auron was going to win this match, but Auron doing as well as he did suddenly made Tails look like he could very well take down the heavily favored Viewtiful Joe in their match later on in the contest. Auron looked pretty damned strong after this match, but a certain match with Ness would throw all of this into question later.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 10/8/2004 5:37:15 PM | Message Detail
Heh, Scorpion got creamed.

That's what you get for beating Pac-Man, suxx0r >=D
---
BtT: 3:48.46 | HRC: 51,246.1 ft OV aaaargh
I keep getting sig'd for the weirdest things lately - StW
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/8/2004 5:39:02 PM | Message Detail
Auron beat a former member of the Elite Eight. In fact, he creamed him.
---
Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: swirldude | Posted: 10/8/2004 6:05:38 PM | Message Detail
Auron beat a former member of the Elite Eight. In fact, he creamed him.

So did Zero, but it didn't get him a win on Sonic...
---
I'm safe until the next toss-up match, which is Bowser vs. Guybrush ~SuperLuigiBros
Nifboy pwned me with a plunger!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/8/2004 6:07:32 PM | Message Detail
Nobody said Scorpion was any good; just saying he creamed an Elite Eight character. =P
---
Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: GalacticMage777 | Posted: 10/8/2004 7:21:10 PM | Message Detail
Tagy-tag.
---
.diputs ,thgir ot tfel morf daer ot desoppus er'uoY
My FFT Sequel Script [Part2up]: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=4838
From: Conceited Bastard | Posted: 10/8/2004 8:34:03 PM | Message Detail
*uppercuts topic*
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Now you can disappoint two birds with one tiny stone! - animorph1000 on vgshogun having a threesome.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/8/2004 10:20:03 PM | Message Detail
Midgar Round 1: (7)Vivi vs (10)Donkey Kong

(7)Vivi - 48443 (56.47%)
(10)Donkey Kong - 37338 (43.53%)
Total Votes - 85781
Vote Difference - 11105
Prediction Percentage - 35.13%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b23.jpg

The "instinct" pick for most board members in this particular match was Vivi. After all, Aya Brea pushed Donkey Kong to the brink before the Nintendo day vote saved Donkey Kong's rear way back in 2002. Could Aya Brea of Parasite Eve fame possibly be around Vivi's level in strength?

However, it was soon discovered that Donkey Kong had the mathematical advantage, albeit a false one, heading into the match. For starters, no character had a larger weighted gain in percentage from 2002 to 2003 than Donkey Kong himself. The 2003 stats also put Donkey Kong right in the middle of a pack of decent midcarders such as Luigi, Jill Valentine, Master Chief, Tommy Vercetti, Knuckles, and Kirby. If you would have trouble picking the likes of Vivi to take down any of those other characters, then why pick him to beat Donkey Kong? The DK over Vivi upset special was a decent choice, though there were two factors not mentioned in the stats. Donkey Kong may have had the largest weight gain between 2002 and 2003, but this is more because of the massive SFF that DK suffered against Mario in 2002 than anything else. Secondly, the 2003 stats also made DK look stronger than he truly was. DK was in a very close match with Tommy Vercetti, and characters are oftentimes overestimated by the math after having been in a close match.

When the match began, DK was only in contention for the first few seconds. Whether or not Vivi was aided by the Black Mage Factor, Final Fantasy 9, or anything else soon became irrelevant as Vivi jumped out to a lead that he would never look back from. A match that was supposedly going to be close turned into a surprise spanking, and given what Vivi was up against, his win was all the more impressive. Until this match, Donkey Kong had never lost in the first round of a contest. Furthermore, despite FF9 having been out since 2002, Vivi did not get the support necessary to even be in the field until this year. This match also featured one of the single lowest prediction percentages ever seen for a first round match, thanks to Donkey Kong's icon status in the gaming world being paired with Vivi's niche appeal. Final Fantasy 9 was a good game, but if FF9 alone was the reason Vivi did so well in this match, then Vivi would have been in contests of the past as well.

This match was a perfect example of one character's weakness magnifying another character's strength. Donkey Kong, despite his status, has never proven to be reliable whatsoever in these contests. If anything, he is one of Nintendo's weaker links. Everyone knows who he is, but that means nothing when it comes to voting for him above someone else. A certain pill-popping yellow guy can attest to status meaning nothing in contest polls. When this weakness is paired with the fact that Vivi is not just a black mage from Final Fantasy 9, but a black mage period, it is no surprise that Vivi won the match. Besides, even if you hated Final Fantasy 9, you only need to play it for all of 15 minutes to know who Vivi is.

And what is Vivi's reward for kicking ass as a first-timer to the field? Being the victim of a company-based bracket. I want to see Vivi in this thing next year so that we can verify his strength. Another conclusion that can be drawn from this match is that the math simply cannot cover everything, but everyone knows that already =)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 10/8/2004 10:23:26 PM | Message Detail
A part 2 will be needed.
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Osama is sunning himself on a remote island, waiting for his buddy Bush to call him, so they can stage the capture a week before the election-solar jetman
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/8/2004 10:28:47 PM | Message Detail
Nitpicking time: Final Fantasy IX came out in 2000, not 2002.
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I can't think of a quote, so I'll throw in a link.
http://img80.exs.cx/img80/5504/NintendoDesktop.jpg
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/8/2004 10:29:56 PM | Message Detail
Unless, of course, your point was that Vivi has been available for every contest and has simply never been nominated until this one.
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I can't think of a quote, so I'll throw in a link.
http://img80.exs.cx/img80/5504/NintendoDesktop.jpg
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/8/2004 11:01:24 PM | Message Detail
No, I gave the wrong year. I know that FFIX came out in 2000, but I typed 2002 by accident because I was thinking of when the contest started in the first place.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: the7joker7 | Posted: 10/8/2004 11:05:41 PM | Message Detail
tag again
---
GO SEAHAWKS 3-0 Next up: St. Louis Rams
Currently playing: Super mario world (3rd world) Kingdom hearts (Agrabah)
From: Merlin the Tuna | Posted: 10/8/2004 11:09:35 PM | Message Detail
Final Fantasy 9 was a good game, but if FF9 alone was the reason Vivi did so well in this match, then Vivi would have been in contests of the past as well.

*cough*

Still, after 8, I admit that it would be hard to look bad.

But FFT:A proved that it is indeed possible to do worse. Kudos to Squeenix for achieving the impossible.
---
If bashing my head into the desk in frustration is a game, then I am the unstoppable 1337 mastah of it. -- AJYeary
From: Super Saiyan Gnome | Posted: 10/8/2004 11:12:08 PM | Message Detail
Why does everyone hate FFTA so much? Sure, it's not great, but it's a portable FF game. Isn't that all people around here want?
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If life was an RPG and the disk had a scratch on it, we'd all be screwed.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/8/2004 11:12:12 PM | Message Detail
Midgar Round 1: (2)Sephiroth vs (15)Sly Cooper

(2)Sephiroth - 77605 (86.37%)
(15)Sly Cooper - 12243 (13.63%)
Total Votes - 89848
Vote Difference - 65362
Prediction Percentage - 97.37%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b24.jpg

This may be the shortest analysis I make for the entire contest, because not only was Sephiroth's win in this match predetermined, but his route to Cloud himself was predetermined as well. That's the beauty of a company-based bracket. Stick a bunch of character from the same company in each division, stack the seedings so that you get the matches you want late in the contest, add in a little fodder, and you get a bunch of matches that don't matter. This was one such match. Everyone knew that Sephiroth would win this match in a massacre, and sure enough, that's what happened. Like I've been saying all through the analysis, no one cares about 3D platformaner characters. The games sell well, but they simply don't draw in the votes. Period. Sly Cooper, despite a lot of exposure, is just another example of this.

Even worse is the fact that because we know for a fact that Sephiroth could easily beat any character he would be projected to face before Cloud, we got to see Sephiroth reduced to starring in matches that don't matter. 2002 was different. We got to see both Mega Man and Samus at least give us a decent show in facing Sephiroth. The Midgar division this year was nothing but a gigantic, obvious setup for Cloud-Sephiroth in the Elite 8. That match was decent enough to set up considering how close they were last year, but why make the earlier rounds suffer? I'm not disrespecting Sly Cooper here, bt it was clear that he was nothing but roadkill from the start in this match.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: ff6man | Posted: 10/9/2004 12:00:50 AM | Message Detail
late tag. ;-P
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RS name:igglybuff138, combat level 91, 1290+ skill total
From: the7joker7 | Posted: 10/9/2004 9:11:21 AM | Message Detail
Wow, this might just get 3 topics. Kudos to Ulti for doing all this. Your Frog/liquid analysis was just mint.
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GO SEAHAWKS 3-0 Next up: St. Louis Rams
Currently playing: Super mario world (3rd world) Kingdom hearts (Agrabah)
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 10/9/2004 9:25:51 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, it's a shame Midgar was so horrendously easy to predict. There was only one match I even though about, and that was Ness/Jak. Too bad I listened to board hype and got it wrong.
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I'd much rather be elitist than an idiot with a misconception that generalizes an entire board.~Bender1616
ZSB [aX]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 11:27:13 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: ultimatelifeform8021 | Posted: 10/9/2004 11:30:15 AM | Message Detail
Keep it up, Ulti! ^_^
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SC2K4 Final Score: 184/192
Contest Winner: Link
From: Heroic Dr Zoidburg | Posted: 10/9/2004 11:32:13 AM | Message Detail
...He deleted the Sonic one...
---
Woo Woo Woo Woo Woo! Nyah! Nyah!
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Summer 2004 Contest
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 11:35:22 AM | Message Detail
Chaos Round 1: (1)Sonic the Hedgehog vs (16)Terry Bogard

(1)Sonic the Hedgehog - 64615 (80.84%)
(16)Terry Bogard - 15316 (19.16%)
Total Votes - 79931
Vote Difference - 49299
Prediction Percentage - 97.47%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b25.jpg

Only one thing confuses me about this match. As the match was drawing close, a lot of Terry Bogard fans started making the argument that Terry would be able to score 25% in the match. That makes no sense, if you ask me. 2002 Terry would be projected to get a mere 11.35% on 2002 Sonic. Terry obviously suffers in the 2002 stats from Donkey Kong getting SFF'd to hell against Mario, but either way, expecting Terry Bogard to increase from 11.35% to 25% against a contest elite simply because he was in three games that few people had even heard of before Terry was unexpectedly put into the bracket is a little out there when it comes to theories. Those three games may have been what allowed Terry to get back into the field after his abscence in 2003, but I doubt that his small but dedicated fanbase would allow him to make such a large jump in percentage.

As the match progressed, many people were surprised by Sonic pushing the issue and breaking 80%. Am I doing these calculations wrong? Because it seems like Sonic scored around where he would be expected to on an adjusted 2002 Terry Bogard. Either way, it was another predetermined, boring blowout in the contest. One thing that this match symbolized was the coming of the chaos division, which was the one division in the entire contest that had an aura of unpredictability to it from the start. 20XX came close, but the surprise in that division was unexpected. In the Chaos division, there were some matches that were hard to gauge no matter how many calculations were done. For a brief time during this match, the argument could even be made that Sonic had a chance against Samus. Not that this came into fruition, but the argument could at least be made after one Sonic match.

Of course, Sonic still had to wait until Samus took the field before truly making an argument for himself.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 11:36:14 AM | Message Detail
I made a mistake in it. I put "Predicton Percentage - [Match pic URL]".
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Chococid | Posted: 10/9/2004 11:38:04 AM | Message Detail
terry=fodder.

*sigh*

GIVE HIS SPOT TO SIGMA DANGIT CEEJ!
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RPG Elite (777) Dragoon Choco-Mage
From the ashes of Reito rose a new kami, and thereafter at every battle came Horobi, Death's wail.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 10/9/2004 11:38:34 AM | Message Detail
No, nothing wrong with your calculations. It's just that the people who were pushing for 25% were mainly people like Heroic Mario(...Yeah. Megaman can beat Link guy) and Chichiri. Both were pretty big Terry fans as I recall... ><
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The only reason this is here is because posts without sigs look ugly.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 12:23:23 PM | Message Detail
Chaos Round 1: (8)KOS-MOS vs (9)Ryu

(8)KOS-MOS - 31954 (37.87%)
(9)Ryu - 52425 (62.13%)
Total Votes - 84379
Vote Difference - 20471
Prediction Percentage - 70.09%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b26.JPG

This match was never in question, for the simple fact that both of these characters have a common opponent. Ryu faced Samus in 2002, while KOS-MOS faced Samus in 2003. KOS-MOS gave Ryu a tiny scare in the opening minutes of the poll, but Ryu withstood it and managed to blow the poll wide open in his favor.

But we all knew that would happen already. The underlying meaning in this match is that Samus was virtually guaranteed in a spot in the Final Four, assuming you actually believed Sonic could challenge her in the first place. 2003 KOS-MOS would be projected to score 32.09% on 2002 Ryu. As you can see, KOS-MOS beat that projection by almost 6% despite having no new exposure between 2003 and 2004. Something changed over the past year, and it doesn't take much to figure out what.

2002 Ryu faced a Samus that only had Metroid, Metroid 2, and Super Metroid on her side. 2003 KOS-MOS had to deal with a Samus fresh off of the duel release of Metroid Fusion and Metroid Prime. Because of this, KOS-MOS overshooting her projected output helps show that KOS-MOS faced a much stronger Samus than Ryu had to deal with. When you factor in that the 2003 Xsts don't take SFF into effect, Samus was underestimated by the 2003 stats due to her unaccounted SFF against Link. This left the door open for Samus to drastically increase between 2003 and 2004, and the KOS-MOS/Ryu match was a warning sign that this is exactly what would happen. For some proof, go compare Samus's 2003 expected percentages against Cloud and Squall to her expected 2004 percentages against them. For whatever reason, be it SFF, Metroid Prime/Fusion/Zero Mission taking some time to set in, or Metroid Prime 2 hype, you could tell after one match that Samus went up. It must suck to be Sonic when your entire hope of springing an upset is shto down completely one match after you first take the field.

It sucks for KOS-MOS and Ryu that their match helped show Samus's strength more than anything else, but we have reached an age in these contests in which unpredictability is rare, and an age in which we can compare stats across multiple contests to not only predict who can win matches, but by how much. Along those lines, it's difficult to do much else but extend the stats in order to make future predictions. It isn't like we didn't know for a fact that Ryu was going to win this match before it even started or anything.

One final note about this match. Sonic was coming off of Sonic Heroes, while Street Fighter Anniversary Collection was to be released just days before Sonic/Ryu. Upset special? Considering how desperate we all were for anything major to happen by this point, it was ncie to hope for.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: ppoi307 | Posted: 10/9/2004 12:54:02 PM | Message Detail
Go Ulti make the Tails Joe one now
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Nominate Tortimer and Tom Nook in the 2004 summer contest
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/9/2004 1:17:25 PM | Message Detail
*sigh*

Link/Samus SFF is too nonexistent to be worth mentioning in a PCA of all places. Look at Squall, Luigi, KOS-MOS, all of whom didn't change since last year, and there's still the potential of Jill, Crash and Ratchet DECREASING. Rewrite this, PRONTO.
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I like my women like I like my ninjas... THOUSANDS OF THEM!!! -Undercooked Sausage
From: Dorami | Posted: 10/9/2004 1:21:11 PM | Message Detail
So Samus gained 4% out of nowhere in the past year?
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Never underestimate the awesomeness of the ninja. Forget Jill - I want Ryu Hayabusa to have my children!
Nominate Rimruru for SC2k5.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/9/2004 1:22:54 PM | Message Detail
Most likely. The beatdowns on Lara and Sam would say more than that, but Sora and Sonic have it around that. No way, and I mean NO WAY, is Sonic equal to Squall. NO ****ING WAY.
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I like my women like I like my ninjas... THOUSANDS OF THEM!!! -Undercooked Sausage
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 1:24:11 PM | Message Detail
Link/Samus SFF is too nonexistent to be worth mentioning in a PCA of all places.

Why? I can't bring myself to believe that Metroid: Zero Mission allowed Samus to increase by 4% all by itself. Even if Link/Samus SFF was all of 2-3% at most, that's still something unaccounted for in the 2003 Xsts.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Smurf X | Posted: 10/9/2004 1:25:18 PM | Message Detail
This is good Ulti, keep it up!

I look forward to the other Sonic match reviews

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^ Smurf The victim of the vicious nifboy
www.geocities.com/characterbattle2004 - The Autumn Character battle
From: Dorami | Posted: 10/9/2004 1:25:55 PM | Message Detail
Metroid Prime 2 hype? You know, kind of like the new Zelda hype?
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Never underestimate the awesomeness of the ninja. Forget Jill - I want Ryu Hayabusa to have my children!
Nominate Rimruru for SC2k5.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/9/2004 1:26:52 PM | Message Detail
Halo 2 hype? ...I dunno...

MGS3 hype? *head explodes*
---
I like my women like I like my ninjas... THOUSANDS OF THEM!!! -Undercooked Sausage
From: SoulCage | Posted: 10/9/2004 1:30:13 PM | Message Detail
Why? I can't bring myself to believe that Metroid: Zero Mission allowed Samus to increase by 4% all by itself. Even if Link/Samus SFF was all of 2-3% at most, that's still something unaccounted for in the 2003 Xsts.

It is also very possible that she's continued gaining from Prime and Fusion, it's not like they stopped selling those games a year after they came out.
From: ppoi307 | Posted: 10/9/2004 3:19:28 PM | Message Detail
post some more Ulti
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Magus can make it to the elite eight in 05
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/9/2004 3:20:53 PM | Message Detail
He'll do it when he has time...
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 10/9/2004 3:22:23 PM | Message Detail
I greatly look forward to reading the Mega Man/Tidus analysis. I loved everything about that match from my prediction to the people on the board. =p

And keep up the great work, Ulti. Reading these is always awesome.
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Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Next game: @ Denver Broncos (3-1)
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 10/9/2004 3:31:12 PM | Message Detail
Do these analysis's get archived anywhere, or do they just get purged with the topic once it reaches 500? ...Also these analysis's are quite enjoyable to read, keep up the good work.
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"I demand a moderator"
"I demand pie!"
- OooO
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/9/2004 3:32:13 PM | Message Detail
I greatly look forward to reading the Mega Man/Tidus analysis. I loved everything about that match from my prediction to the people on the board. =p

I guess that means you're asking him to skip Mega Man vs. Link? ^_~
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 10/9/2004 3:32:50 PM | Message Detail
He's going to tear Mega Man apart in that analysis. =(
---
Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Next game: @ Denver Broncos (3-1)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 3:59:37 PM | Message Detail
Chaos Round 1: (5)Viewtiful Joe vs Tails

(5)Viewtiful Joe - 36102 (45.2%)
(12)Tails - 43775 (54.8%)
Total Votes - 79877
Vote Difference - 7673
Prediction Percentage - 46.3%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b27.jpg

Until Auron's match against Scorpion, Viewtiful Joe's victory in the match was believed to be a foregone conclusion. After all, Tails has been the sacrificial lamb for contest newcomers for two years running prior to this match. Why would this year be any different? Tails's loss against Auron in 2003 was acceptable, but the match to compare Joe/Tails to is the 2002 match between Alucard and Tails. In 2002, Alucard came into the contest as a relative unknown. What he had going for him was that he was the main character in Castlevania: Symphony of the Night. Despite the game not selling all that well (just under 1 million copies, if I recall), the game received rave reviews all over the internet, and Alucard was able to ride this momentum all the way to a victory against Tails.

Viewtiful Joe fits within the same mold, in a way. His game didn't sell all that well, but those who did play the game gave it rave reviews all over the place. But Viewtiful Joe did not have quite as much going for him as Alucard did in 2002. Not only did SOTN sell close to one million coies, but Alucard himself starred in other Castlevania titles within the series as well. Viewtiful Joe, despite being critically acclaimed, did not give Joe nearly the exposure that SOTN gave Alucard. The game itself has sold around half as well as SOTN, and unlike Alucard, Viewtiful Joe's only appearance was in his one game. But even still, a good argument could be made in Viewtiful Joe's favor. He isn't Alucard, plain and simple. He is the main character from a recent hit, and on top of that Viewtiful Joe had his game released for the Playstation 2 just days prior to his match with Tails.

But because of Auron's killing of Scorpion, it became clear that Tails was being underestimated coming into this match. Regardless of how bad Sonic Heroes was, the case can easily be made that Tails suffered a few percentage points in strength due to Cloud/Auron SFF, and if you really want to throw the SFF theories out there, it's very possible that the entire North division could have suffered a bit due to Mario's distant SFF against Link in the finals that year.

When the match began, Tails jumped out to a small early lead, and after an attempt by Viewtiful Joe to come back, Tails started using the traditional early morning Sega vote to pull away for good. In a match that was supposed to go to Viewtiful Joe with ease, Tails wound up being the one to cruise to the win. This isn't to say that a 55-45 match is a blowout, but considering how easy it was supposed to be for Joe to pull this out, a 55-45 victory in the other direction is very convincing. Few people were surprised (unfortunately), simply because you could feel it coming after Auron's massive overperformance against Scorpion, but still, it was nice to see an upset. The funny thing about this particular upset is that we lost a lot of perfect brackets because of Tails. I can see matches like Tidus/Shadow and Vivi/DK killing perfects, but losing a perfect because of Tails is pretty damned hilarious.

NOTE: NEVER LET HEROIC MARIO FORGET THAT HE LOST HIS PERFECT 2004 BRACKET TO A SONIC CHARACTER =)

I kid, I kid. Sort of. Another interesting note is that this match became the biggest BOP upset ever, surpassing even the fabled Halo vs Starcraft epic. And I think this is awesome, because even though the match was more boring than we would have liked, we get to see it stand out in a few areas historically. And besides, Tails finally won a match. Like him or hate him, he didn't deserve to be treated like a joke forever.

(continued)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:00:44 PM | Message Detail
But what does this say of Viewtiful Joe? If having a game released all of three days before a match can't get him a win, then how is Viewtiful Joe 2 going to help him? I doubt that it will, and Joe is one more example that it's nearly impossible to avoid the traditional 5-12 upset that we see in every contest. Even worse is the fact that Joe may very well turn out to be on the level of the 3D platformer characters (TRANSLATION: THE CHARACTERS THAT ALL HORRIBLY BOMBED IN 2004) as the contest continues to evolve.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Balrog0 | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:02:54 PM | Message Detail
I still don't see why Joe vs Tails was so hard to predict... *sigh*
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He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly, he just raged.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:04:53 PM | Message Detail
My poor bracket, to Tails of all people! </bitter>

I think the fact it was released a mere three days before the match says it was too recent and not able to sink in enough to give him a win against Tails. With VJ2 on the PS2/GCN and VJ DS/PSP I think he's bound to shoot up within the coming year.
---
Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Next game: @ Denver Broncos (3-1)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:10:39 PM | Message Detail
throw the SFF theories out there, it's very possible that the entire North division could have suffered a bit due to Mario's distant SFF against Link in the finals that year.

That'd be Mario's overperformance on Cloud due to PGC that caused Cloud's half of the North division (Kirby, Bman, Alucard, and Tails, that I can remember) to appear lower in the stats than they should.
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I can't think of a quote, so I'll throw in a link.
http://img59.exs.cx/img59/5504/NintendoDesktop.jpg
From: Garsha | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:17:09 PM | Message Detail
Henshin-a-no-no, Heroic Mario!
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boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=16704793 - Vote
Pwned by nifboy on the SC2K4 Guru Contest!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:18:05 PM | Message Detail
This was one of the matches I was proudest of by not listening to the board; it certainly wasn't a foregone conclusion by any means, but I felt fairly confident in Tails all along. About VJ though...this time next year, I could see VJ/DK-or-Tommy-Vercetti being a hell of a match.
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: Balrog0 | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:19:54 PM | Message Detail
I doubt V Joe is going to get much more popular next year. Maybe enough to beat Tails... but not many others.
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He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly, he just raged.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:24:10 PM | Message Detail
bump

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Visit board 984, where having an opinion means you're a blind, ignorant fanboy, and a troll!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:26:38 PM | Message Detail
I doubt V Joe is going to get much more popular next year. Maybe enough to beat Tails... but not many others.

If we were to look at the adjusted-SFF stats...

Knuckles - 24.94%
Tommy Vercetti - 24.17%
Luigi - 22.96%
KOS-MOS - 22.60%
Donkey Kong - 21.96%
Miles 'Tails' Prower - 21.71%

...I don't agree with Vercetti and DK being so far apart, but currently they're all above Tails. Who of those would you give VJ the win over next year?
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: A Hogasm IN POG FORM | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:28:06 PM | Message Detail
Poor Viewtiful Joe...
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Tiebreaker'd by the great nifboy in the Guru challenge!
You have the best username I have ever seen. Make love to me.-Bloofy Score: 190/192
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:28:51 PM | Message Detail
Just pray Joe 2 boosts his scores.

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Visit board 984, where having an opinion means you're a blind, ignorant fanboy, and a troll!
From: Balrog0 | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:29:30 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles - 24.94%
Tommy Vercetti - 24.17%
Luigi - 22.96%
KOS-MOS - 22.60%
Donkey Kong - 21.96%
Miles 'Tails' Prower - 21.71%

...I don't agree with Vercetti and DK being so far apart, but currently they're all above Tails. Who of those would you give VJ the win over next year?


Best case scenario (for Joe), though...
Tails.
And maybe Donkey Kong or KOS-MOS.

Really though, I don't think he'll increase enough to beat any of them, even Tails.
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He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly, he just raged.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:36:32 PM | Message Detail
That'd be Mario's overperformance on Cloud due to PGC that caused Cloud's half of the North division (Kirby, Bman, Alucard, and Tails, that I can remember) to appear lower in the stats than they should.

Indeed. Mario's performances in the two following years pretty much disprove any and all of that SFF crap. The only thing the increases of Tails and Alucard (the former being withheld for one year due to Cloud/Auron SFF) indicate is that something went down in Mario/Cloud, not Mario/Link. Had the match gone as normal, Cloud would've probably broken 55%.
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I like my women like I like my ninjas... THOUSANDS OF THEM!!! -Undercooked Sausage
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:37:26 PM | Message Detail
I think KOS-MOS will be his absolute limit, though it's possible. Tommy's too high in the X-stats though, I think, and should be alot closer to DK, thus my reasoning why VJ should be able to give either TV or DK a great match next year.
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:37:43 PM | Message Detail
And for DK's ranking, it's either due to Cloud/Sephiroth SFF or Sephiroth/Vivi SFF. I'm thinking the latter, accompanied with a genuine loss of steam by Seph.
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I like my women like I like my ninjas... THOUSANDS OF THEM!!! -Undercooked Sausage
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/9/2004 4:41:47 PM | Message Detail
*shrugs* Aside from bein' almost equal to Tails, I think DK looks fine, even after considering Cloud/Seph and Vivi/Seph. I see Tommy being a bigger oddball, and I blame it on MM/Zero rSFF.
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 10/9/2004 5:16:09 PM | Message Detail
Henshin-a-no-no, Heroic Mario!

Your telling me two brand-new titles across four consoles isn't going to give him an increase? It's absurd to think he won't be getting one.

I doubt V Joe is going to get much more popular next year. Maybe enough to beat Tails... but not many others.

I ask you the same question as above. <.<
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Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Next game: @ Denver Broncos (3-1)
From: Balrog0 | Posted: 10/9/2004 5:19:48 PM | Message Detail
I doubt V Joe is going to get much more popular next year. Maybe enough to beat Tails... but not many others.

I ask you the same question as above. <.<


I'm saying that three days after 1 release didn't give him a substantial enough boost to defeat Tails.
I think it's absurd to think that a couple new releases a months before the contest starts is going to catapult him to new heights.
Of course, lest we forget, I had KOS-MOS over Ryu. Most of my opinions = NOT VALID'D
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He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly, he just raged.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 10/9/2004 5:22:30 PM | Message Detail
I'm saying that three days after 1 release didn't give him a substantial enough boost to defeat Tails.

Could that maybe, possibly be because it was far too recent? Think about those three days. People have to go out to get the game, play a good portion of it, and then change their opinion based on less than three days of play that V. Joe is greater than a classic Tails.


I think it's absurd to think that a couple new releases a months before the contest starts is going to catapult him to new heights.

Why should any game serve to increase any character then?
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Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Next game: @ Denver Broncos (3-1)
From: Balrog0 | Posted: 10/9/2004 5:25:14 PM | Message Detail
I think it's absurd to think that a couple new releases a months before the contest starts is going to catapult him to new heights.

Why should any game serve to increase any character then?


Please. That only sounds ridiculous when you take it apart from the rest of the statement. A release 3 days before should be able to give Joe a substantial boost. It didn't. I don't see why another new game will.

Of course, it's possible that the release was too recent. I think I'll continue believing what I believe now, though, thanks.
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He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly, he just raged.
From: Dorami | Posted: 10/9/2004 5:26:31 PM | Message Detail
but Alucard himself starred in other Castlevania titles within the series as well.
Like what? Being one of three mutually exclusive secondary playable characters in the ancient CV3, or being an NPC in the recent AoS without even his name or appearance?
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Never underestimate the awesomeness of the ninja. Forget Jill - I want Ryu Hayabusa to have my children!
Nominate Rimruru for SC2k5.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 10/9/2004 5:28:59 PM | Message Detail
Please. That only sounds ridiculous when you take it apart from the rest of the statement. A release 3 days before should be able to give Joe a substantial boost. It didn't. I don't see why another new game will.

There is a certain thing called too recent. Like I said, it certainly wasn't enough time for a mass amount of people to go out, buy the game, play the game, and change their opinion from Tails > Joe to Joe > Tails. Had it been released so much as two weeks earlier, or something similar, and it still didn't help him it would've been different. From what I gather, SFAC actually did help Ryu out judging from his 2003 performance and then 2004 performance. That game was released two weeks prior to the Sonic/Ryu match.

Of course, it's possible that the release was too recent. I think I'll continue believing what I believe now, though, thanks.

Thank you. I just think that when a character starring in a game that was released on one console, at the start of the contest, and had sold 450,000 copies worldwide has no room to increase or will do very little. He's got tremendous amounts of potential. Next year, he should be quite a threat to a number of higher ranking characters.
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Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Next game: @ Denver Broncos (3-1)
From: Balrog0 | Posted: 10/9/2004 5:31:42 PM | Message Detail
He's got tremendous amounts of potential. Next year, he should be quite a threat to a number of higher ranking characters.

*shrug*
I disagree. Go figure.
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He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly, he just raged.
From: Balrog0 | Posted: 10/9/2004 5:34:47 PM | Message Detail
This match was never in question....Ryu withstood it and managed to blow the poll wide open in his favor...But we all knew that would happen already.

Speak for yourselves....=/
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He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly, he just raged.
From: cyko | Posted: 10/9/2004 5:57:58 PM | Message Detail
okay, i know it was a while ago that MWIS posted his rant about why Frog was such a worthless character, but i simply had to applaud the way he described that and how much it mirrored my opinion.

cheers MWIS!!

oh, and cheers to Ulti for some well-written and unbiased analysis!

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That's it. I have reached my threshold of pain. I am going home and I am going to play Megaman, eat snack cakes, and do my woman.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 6:39:29 PM | Message Detail
Chaos Round 1: (4)Dante vs (13)Ratchet

(4)Dante - 59437 (80.28%)
(13)Ratchet - 14602 (19.72%)
Total Votes - 74039
Vote Difference - 44835
Prediction Percentage - 85.47%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b28.jpg

Something about Dante just bores the hell out of me in these contests. In 2002, he expectedly defeated Q*bert, but even in a debated match against Crono, the actual match was very ho-hum as if his path was directly laid out before him from the start. In 2003, it was more of the same. Everyone knew that Dante would take down Ryo Hazuki, and then in the second round, he faced Ryu in a debated match. He wound up losing that match, but once again, Dante went down in ho-hum fashion with very little outcry from those who picked him to win.

In 2004, we see the exact same thing. Dante is yet again a 4 seed, and yet again, he gets a very ho-hum four pack. Dante, Ratchet, Viewtiful Joe, and Tails aren't exactly the most exciting characters to watch in a contest setting, no matter how their matches all go. The only difference this year was that Dante was virtually guaranteed a spot in the Sweet 16 right from the start. He did his part by blowing out Ratchet with 80% of the vote, and even though the illusion of Dante actually being strong was created after this match, this turned out to be false. Ratchet, like every other 3D platformer in this contest, flat-out bombed this year. Simple as that. When you can let Dante get 80% of the vote, you know that you've got some problems.

We need to see Dante involved in a decent match, because he has been a bore to watch in action for three years now. The biggest thing to note about him is that he is the only character to get the same seed every year. And when something that minor is the most notable thing about you, you need to do something to draw some excitement to yourself. He may have it coming on the way however, as Capcom is promising that Devil May Cry 3 will put DMC on the map as one of the elite series in all of gaming. Dante also has the benefit of his series having one of the highest sales per release ratios of any gaming series of all time, which could explain why Dante performs on a decent level every year.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/9/2004 6:42:22 PM | Message Detail
I just copied and pasted the matches that have been done so far onto word... And it is at 32 pages. O_O

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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 6:48:12 PM | Message Detail
Two things. The characters who are supported by a lot of people always do better than what they would have done on their own in these contests. Mario didn't come out of no where in 2002; he was the overwhelming favorite to win it all.

As for games being released close to matches not mattering, I also have to use Mario as an example. Super Mario Sunshine was released the very day that Cloud/Mario took place. If you take that away, I don't think Mario has a chance in hell of winning that match. And that doesn't even factor in what happens if you take away PGCN, the phantom 500 vote jump for Mario, and Mario's overwhelming bracket support in that contest as a whole. I'm led to believe that Joe overperformed in his match against Tails, simply because of his game going to the PS2 so close to the match. Tails may ave done far better otherwise.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 6:48:46 PM | Message Detail
Cool. That should serve as a nice backup just in case my archive on my secret board purges for whatever reason.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
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Ultimaterializer's Post Contest Analysis
From: Mumei | Posted: 10/9/2004 6:50:27 PM | Message Detail
Cool. That should serve as a nice backup just in case my archive on my secret board purges for whatever reason.

Almost halfway through. =)
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M-me? Queen ***** of the Universe?
This is the happiest day of my life. ~ smitelf
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 7:14:02 PM | Message Detail
Chaos Round 1: (6)Sora vs (11)HK-47

(6)Sora - 54034 (65.55%)
(11)HK-47 - 28392 (34.45%)
Total Votes - 82426
Vote Difference - 25642
Prediction Percentage - 75.4%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b29.jpg

Everyone knew that Sora was going to win this match, and the only people who went against this were those using the Spring Contest as their argument. You know, because KOTOR getting 40% on Vice City means that a character not even required in his own game was going to stand up to the lead from Kingdom Hearts, a game with a heavy Square influence to it.

The problem with this match is that HK-47 had never been in one of these contests before, and because of this, we had no way to validate the strength or weakness of either character. All we had to go on were two matches involving Sora, and one of them was a 66-34 blowout at the hands of Aeris. For all we know, HK-47 could have been stronger or weaker than expected, and it's fairly possible that Sora was underestimated coming into the contest due to possible SFF suffered at the hands of Aeris last year. But regardless of all the theories, we had no way to validate Sora's strength until the second round. But even then, due to 2003 Xsts, Sora was expected to lose anyway to either Ryu Hayabusa or Jill Valentine. Jill placed so far ahead of Sora last year that it was assumed that no matter who won the Ryu/Jill match, that the winner would cruise to an easy win against Sora. After all, the only was for Sora to suddenly be as strong as the winner of that match would be for either character to be far weaker than 2003's version of Jill Valentine. There is also the Sora/Aeris SFF theory, but honestly, there is no possible way that Sora could have suffered that much...... right?

Heh, sure.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/9/2004 7:18:48 PM | Message Detail
I'll start writing again tomorrow night. Ryu/Jill is next, and I will need a TON of time to get that thing done.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/10/2004 7:04:45 AM | Message Detail
Bump for later. Once I get back from work, I'll tackle the Ryu/Jill fiasco.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 10/10/2004 7:07:48 AM | Message Detail
*bump*

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Visit board 984, where having an opinion means you're a blind, ignorant fanboy, and a troll!
From: ppoi307 | Posted: 10/10/2004 8:35:06 AM | Message Detail
bump
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Magus can make it to the elite eight in 05
From: Mega Mana | Posted: 10/10/2004 12:49:28 PM | Message Detail
There is no possible way of knowing how far up this topic's going... oh, wait, yes we do. BUMP TO THE TOP!
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"Dunkin Donuts all the way, much like the yankees, Krispy Kreme is an overated new york phenomenon" - frontstreet
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 10/10/2004 2:08:12 PM | Message Detail
A certain pill-popping yellow guy can attest to status meaning nothing in contest polls.

Brain fart. Who is this?
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Dig Dug loves you all. Yes, even you. Yeah, you. Behind the tall guy.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/10/2004 2:08:38 PM | Message Detail
Pac Man.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Shivan Reincarnated | Posted: 10/10/2004 2:16:08 PM | Message Detail
IMO, Jill would have won if it wasn't for the glitch. Yeah, I know, it was redone, but there was still a lack of 20,000 votes on the 2nd day too >_>
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The undisputed master of the mountains of Shiv
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/10/2004 2:20:48 PM | Message Detail
You can easily counter that argument by saying that Ryu would have won by a far larger margain had it not been for the glitch.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Shivan Reincarnated | Posted: 10/10/2004 2:21:16 PM | Message Detail
I know, it's all a matter of opinion really.
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The undisputed master of the mountains of Shiv
From: sidharta | Posted: 10/10/2004 4:24:45 PM | Message Detail
* bump *

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<In the process of looking for a new sig.>
From: Villainous Fawful | Posted: 10/10/2004 4:26:00 PM | Message Detail
hurry up Ulti.


Or let me summarize.


Ryu H. was overhyped and we were all morons for thinking he could beat Sora.



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I HAVE FURY!!
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:34:13 PM | Message Detail
Bump.
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I'd much rather be elitist than an idiot with a misconception that generalizes an entire board.~Bender1616
ZSB [aX]
From: Slowflake | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:40:56 PM | Message Detail
Sora being underhyped has more to do with it, really. Hayabusa's just as strong as most of us expected him to be.
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I like my women like I like my ninjas... THOUSANDS OF THEM!!! -Undercooked Sausage
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:45:19 PM | Message Detail
Ryu H. was overhyped and we were all morons for thinking he could beat Sora.

False. Sora was underrated and Jill had greatly decreased.

Also, regarding the glitch, I don't think it affected anything at all. Originally, it would make sense that it helped Ryu - casual voters would vote Jill day one/day two and not the other day. Ryu would take all the bracket votes. But now that I see that their bracket support was virtually equal... *shrugs*
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SpC2k4: 162/192 ~ SC2k4: 187/192
Shadowdude II: An accident or mishap, especially a falling down. ~ Kali
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:49:11 PM | Message Detail
I thought it was amazing that Ryu winning AS A THREE-SEED was an upset in more people's brackets when he beat Jill. Considering Sora had a good backing to get him into the Sweet Sixteen, imagine how many brackets would have been upset of Ryu would have made it to the Sweet Sixteen. It probably would have been lower than Frog's.
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: Fiop | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:49:46 PM | Message Detail
Jill would've won had she been the 3 seed.

Sure, she had the bracket advantage even as a 14 seed, but as a 3 seed she probably would've gotten a few more brackets to edge her above Ryu.
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"There are a dozen ways to think about a thing until you find out the answer. Then there's only one." -- C.S. Lewis
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:52:39 PM | Message Detail
Sadly, I agree; that was THE thing that made me feel good about picking Ryu over Jill, afterall. Had the seeds been switched, Jill could have won with about 53% I think.
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:52:58 PM | Message Detail
It probably would have been lower than Frog's.

Nah. I could see HK-47 being a vast underdog with about 10% of brackets while Ryu and Jill each had about 25-30%.
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SpC2k4: 162/192 ~ SC2k4: 187/192
Shadowdude II: An accident or mishap, especially a falling down. ~ Kali
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:54:06 PM | Message Detail
But there is no feasible way Jill could EVER get a 3-seed now.
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SpC2k4: 162/192 ~ SC2k4: 187/192
Shadowdude II: An accident or mishap, especially a falling down. ~ Kali
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:55:47 PM | Message Detail
Agreed, but was it feasable that Hayabusa got one?
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 10/10/2004 6:58:38 PM | Message Detail
Yeah. CJayC likes giving newbies high seeds after seeing the chaos Magus/Ganon caused, I guess. See Viewfful Joe, Frog.
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SpC2k4: 162/192 ~ SC2k4: 187/192
Shadowdude II: An accident or mishap, especially a falling down. ~ Kali
From: Chococid | Posted: 10/10/2004 7:00:49 PM | Message Detail
Ryu was overseeded, we all knew that.
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RPG Elite (777) Dragoon Choco-Mage
From the ashes of Reito rose a new kami, and thereafter at every battle came Horobi, Death's wail.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/10/2004 7:04:10 PM | Message Detail
Frog came through though, and won several updates on a 2-seed after two nail-biters with serious competition. Viewtiful Joe'll have a good shot next year to win a match, but this year wasn't his time...he strikes me as a character who's gonna keep getting alot of nominations, like Kirby. Not just like Kirby, but like Kirby, I see VJ still getting alot of nominations in the future.
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: Villainous Fawful | Posted: 10/10/2004 7:46:59 PM | Message Detail
Kirby is cute and adored by Nintendo fans everywhere.


V. Joe comes from some obscure Capcom game


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I HAVE FURY!!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/10/2004 7:50:59 PM | Message Detail
Oh, Kirby would beat VJ, no question, but I still see VJ getting lots of nominations.
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: Villainous Fawful | Posted: 10/10/2004 7:52:32 PM | Message Detail
Ah, he'll probably do better next year but I'd still put Tails over him in a match
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I HAVE FURY!!
From: gunnygunny | Posted: 10/10/2004 7:52:53 PM | Message Detail
omfwtyfudlopmbbqwtf!
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"Breaking Stuff to look Tough"-Halo
Xbox Live Gamertag: SolidSanke 343
From: Nightmare 45 | Posted: 10/10/2004 8:11:11 PM | Message Detail
And he said to Abraham "Tag".
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Now a proud Rider of Lohan
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 10/10/2004 8:15:31 PM | Message Detail
Post 481 is a tag...a lil' late, but come along.
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Question: Who owned some major ass in the Guru Prediction Contest?
Answer: Nifboy, fools...nifboy.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/10/2004 8:48:06 PM | Message Detail
Chaos Round 1: (3)Ryu Hayabusa vs (14)Jill Valentine

(3)Ryu Hayabusa - 35220 (50.02%)
(14)Jill Valentine - 35193 (49.98%)
Total Votes- 70413
Vote Difference - 27
Prediction Percentage - 48.56%
Match Picture - www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum04b30.jpg

When the bracket was first released, there were the usual number of debates matches in the first round. But Ryu Hayabusa and Jill Valentine was the match in round one. Not only was this match difficult to call right from the start, but it was widely believed that the winner of the match had a free pass into the Sweet 16 simply because of Jill Valentine placing so far ahead of Sora in the 2003 Xsts.

Unlike most debated matches, both sides of this match had a very convincing argument going into it. Ryu Hayabusa, despite being a newcomer to the contest, had a strong case as to why he should win the match. Ryu may not have been in the contest before, but he had a good history in the gaming world with his NES Ninja Gaiden series and his appearences in the Dead or Alive games. When you add in Ryu's recent Ninja Gaiden title on the Xbox and the fact that Xbox fans are very loyal when it comes to voting for their system, Ryu Hayabusa had a decent advantage over Jill Valentine in the match. Ryu also had history on his side, as the only 3 seed to ever lose in the first round of a contest was Gordon Freeman in 2002. But the problem with Ryu Hayabusa is that he was completely untested in a contest environment. It could easily be argued that Ryu Hayabusa could be as strong as the theories all suggested, but the fact of the matter is that no one knew what to expect from him. Ninja Gaiden's Xbox title only sold around half a million copies, which is around the same number of sales from Viewtiful Joe's title for the Gamecube. We all know how well that turned out.

On the other side of this was a character whose strength has been seen in the contest twice in the past. Jill Valentine put out a solid performance in 2002, and despite falling off a bit in 2003, she was still a character to be recognized in the contest setting. The large debate in this match came from two sources. First of all, Jill Valentine is an established contest character whose strength has been verified from having done well in the contest for two years. Secondly, take a look at the 2003 Xsts. Jill Valentine is just under Master Chief in strength. How could a secondary Xbox character have the strength necessary to take down Jill Valentine if Master Chief himself could only have just enough conceivable strength to take her down? For Ryu Hayabusa to win this match, he would have to hope for Jill Valentine to take a drop in popularity between 2003 and 2004, and even though this was possible due to her drop between 2002 and 2003, relying on a drop in popularity to win a match is not a good thing to rely on in a contest poll.

Another interesting number to look at would be Jill Valentine's vote totals across the 2002 and 2003 contests. She had been in five matches, and in three of them, she managed to score within a 1700 vote range around the 38000 vote mark. Given the vote totals from the Spring Contest, how close the match was expected to be, and how neither character involved in the match had the mainstream GameFAQs support to shoot the vote totals through the roof in a close match, Jill Valentine was primed to score at around that same 38000 total in this match. The question was, would 38000 votes be enough to take down Ryu Hayabusa? One could easily argue that Ryu was a cultish type of character going into the match, so a low-scoring match between the two was not out of the question.

(continued)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/10/2004 9:38:05 PM | Message Detail
When the numbers were all crunched, the final result was that we had a match that was seemingly up in the air from the start. Both characters had an amazing argument for themselves going into it, and the only thing left to do was to actually have the match. For the first time in the entire contest, we actually had a match in which neither character could conceivably be favored over the other due to multiple outside factors.

As the match drew closer and closer, everyone knew all of these numbers by heart. We finally had a match in this contest in which both characters had a solid case to make for themselves, and both sides of the board argued the points quite well. We had waited for this match all contest, and the solid intensity of the anticipation was only magnified by the fact that everyone felt that the match was worth three points. The weight of the upcoming duel between these two characters soon grew to a deafening pace, and eventually the entire board was on the edge of their seats in anticipation of a match that hadn't even started yet.

At long last, CJayC slapped the poll up, and it was game on for these two characters. Ryu Hayabusa jumped out to a small early lead with the backing of the massive board support that he had, but Jill Valentine was not about to back down. She struck back with a passion after withstanding the initial onslaught, and soon managed to come back in the poll. Not only did she come back, but she began taking it to Ryu Hayabusa with a fury. Jill Valentine began drawing off of the support given to her by the mainstream success of the Resident Evil series as a whole, and she soon began building a lead on the favored Ryu Hayabusa.

....but something was drastically wrong. The characters were doing their part, but for some reason, the vote totals were far lower than expected. Before long, everyone had figured out what was wrong. Thanks to a server error, the poll was glitched. The Ryu/Jill poll was only displayed on the home page roughly half of the time, thanks to half of the servers never updating. On said servers, the Sora/HK-47 match was still being displayed. But regardless of this, the people who were eagerly anticipating the match knew exactly where to vote. The issue came with the lost casual votes. If someone were to go to the home page and still see the Sora/HK-47 match, then they would have no reason to think twice about what was going on. It is impossible to know where all of these casual votes would have gone, though history has proven that casual votes usually compliment the voting pattern of the hardcore votes. But even still, a match that had so much promise soon turned into a match that many people viewed under protest. Many people wanted the poll to restarted after knowledge of the glitch was released, and despite the fact that a lot of people disagreed with this sentiment, many people agreed with the fact that the poll should be restarted. The stereotype among these arguments was that the Ryu Hayabusa supporters wanted a restart because their character was losing, and the Jill supporters wanted to leave the poll along because Jill was in the middle of pulling away in the poll. The reality was that a great deal of those who favored a restart, myself included, simply wanted a fair match.

However, it seemed as if the cries for a restart were not being heard. The poll was left running even with the glitch, and there was no word whatsoever from CJayC. Considering that we were in the middle of a heated battle with no other choice, we all went with what we had and continued to pay attention to the poll that we had instead of the poll that we would likely never see.

(continued)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/10/2004 11:24:31 PM | Message Detail
Everyone had accepted the glitch's place in the poll, and because of this, everyone got back to enjoying the match at hand. Jill had begun to slightly pull away, but when the morning vote hit, Ryu Hayabusa began to make a comeback of his own. Jill tried her best to avoid the surge, but before she knew what had hit her, Ryu Hayabusa had used the momentum of his surge to tie the match up.

But once again, Jill Valentine refused to roll over in the match. After Ryu made his push to even out the match, Jill Valentine quickly recovered and started to pull away with the late morning vote. It was somewhat of a slow advance, but it was an advance that allowed Jill to take a lead of a few hundred votes on Ryu.

Not to be outdone, Ryu Hayabusa used the afternoon vote to stem the tide and begin a small comeback of his own. It was agonizingly slow, but this was more the glitch's fault than it was Ryu Hayabusa's. Ryu's push into Jill's lead was slow at first, but Ryu eventually built up some steam en route to using the traditional Microsoft afternoon vote to his advantage. Before Jill even knew what hit her, Ryu was hot on her tail. Around the time that the evening arrived, Ryu Hayabusa had managed to pull even with Jill yet again. After yet another struggle from the two characters during their phase of being tied, Ryu completed his comeback once and for all. He started pulling away from Jill once and for all during the evening vote, and as the hours wore on, Ryu built his lead to over 400 votes. After a very hard-fought match between the two characters, it seemed as if Ryu had proven to be the more popular character on this day. Jill was periodically stalling Ryu's attempts to increase his lead, but Ryu was doing more than enough to prove that he was in control of the match. All he had to do was hold on for another 5 and a half hou--

IN A.D. 2101 GLITCH WAS BEGINNING

RYU H: WHAT HAPPEN ?
JILL: SOMEBODY SET UP US THE GLITCH.
BOARD 8: WE GET TOPIC.
RYU H: WHAT !
BOARD 8: MAIN TOPIC TURN ON.
RYU H: IT'S YOU !!
CJAYC: HOW ARE YOU GENTLEMAN !!
CJAYC: ALL YOUR POLL ARE BELONG TO US.
CJAYC: YOU ARE ON THE WAY TO RESTART.
RYU H: WHAT YOU SAY !!
CJAYC: YOU HAVE NO CHANCE TO FINISH MAKE YOUR TIME.
CJAYC: HA HA HA HA ....
RYU H: TAKE OFF EVERY 'VOTE' !!
RYU H: YOU KNOW WHAT YOU DOING.
RYU H: MOVE 'VOTE'.
RYU H: FOR GREAT JUSTICE.

The long explanation: It took until there were just over 5 hours left in the poll for CJayC to realize that there was a problem with the poll, but he eventually noticed that something was wrong. Instead of looking at the voting trend and deciding that Ryu Hayabusa had the match won, he did the right thing and restarted the poll. Most people wanted the poll to be restarted, but it was unfortunate that it took so long for CJayC to realize what was happening. But even still, the right thing was being done in this case. The problem is that because so much of the poll had already been completed, restarting the poll on the next day would likely only cause problems. But more on that in a minute.

The quick explanation: http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18&phid=31

Genius. Pure genius.

(continued)
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/10/2004 11:27:14 PM | Message Detail
I'll finish the Ryu/Jill analysis tomorrow. I didn't realize how involved this match was going to be, and it's getting late. I need my sleep, too.

But it'll get done tomorrow, I promise. Ryu/Jill was the single craziest match we've ever had in one of these contests, if you ask me.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Thalandor46 | Posted: 10/10/2004 11:34:42 PM | Message Detail
Oh my god...I cant believe I missed that! It was easily one of that matches I was lokoing forward to most, but I was in the process of moving at that time and didnt have internet access for about a week. I never heard about that until now. That's just flat out awesome!
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There are 3 types of people in this world. Those who can count, and those who can't
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 10/11/2004 7:12:58 AM | Message Detail
Bump again.
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I'd much rather be elitist than an idiot with a misconception that generalizes an entire board.~Bender1616
ZSB [aX]
From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 10/11/2004 7:15:22 AM | Message Detail
Goddamn Ulti.....you must have been rather intrigued by the Jill/Ryu doubleheader.
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-3) at BAL W 27-24
NEXT: at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) (10/17)
From: Phediuk | Posted: 10/11/2004 9:29:13 AM | Message Detail
You were rambling a bit in those last two posts, Ulti...

...tired?

>_>
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: badboyfg | Posted: 10/11/2004 9:36:35 AM | Message Detail
OMFG this topic rox0rz
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www.opm2.info :O
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/11/2004 10:02:27 AM | Message Detail
From: Phediuk | Posted: 10/11/2004 11:29:13 AM | Message Detail
You were rambling a bit in those last two posts, Ulti...


If you want to call that rambling, sure =)

...tired?

I was, yeah.

Anyway, I'm off to work. I'll finish it up when I get back.
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I am little more than a slug among the food chain that is Board 8, but perhaps if I were as cool as nifboy, that would not be the case. Congrats, nifboy! =)
From: Tai | Posted: 10/11/2004 12:02:41 PM | Message Detail
Best. Match. Evar. Ryu/Jill, that is. :-)
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A winner is nifboy, SC2K4 Guru Champion! I saLUEte you! :-)
From: badboyfg | Posted: 10/11/2004 12:09:42 PM | Message Detail
Almost 500 posts <_<
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―`'~-.,_,.-~'`―`'~We Poo ―`'~-.,_,.-~'`―`'~
_,.-~'`―`'~-.,_,.-the Boards_,.-~'`―`'~-.,_,.-
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 10/11/2004 12:21:04 PM | Message Detail
Yep almost. It would be a shame if we got this to 500 before the Ryu/Jill analysis was finished. >_>
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Osama is sunning himself on a remote island, waiting for his buddy Bush to call him, so they can stage the capture a week before the election-solar jetman
From: Ishbu3116 | Posted: 10/11/2004 12:23:05 PM | Message Detail
hey ulti how much time have you spent on this contest.
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Why not just have Cloud vs Link for SC2K5, saves us a lot of trouble
From: badboyfg | Posted: 10/11/2004 12:23:31 PM | Message Detail
We shouldn't be posting then <_< :P
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―`'~-.,_,.-~'`―`'~We Poo ―`'~-.,_,.-~'`―`'~
_,.-~'`―`'~-.,_,.-the Boards_,.-~'`―`'~-.,_,.-
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 10/11/2004 12:23:50 PM | Message Detail
No, we shouldn't.
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Osama is sunning himself on a remote island, waiting for his buddy Bush to call him, so they can stage the capture a week before the election-solar jetman
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 10/11/2004 12:25:14 PM | Message Detail
Now watch this drive...
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Osama is sunning himself on a remote island, waiting for his buddy Bush to call him, so they can stage the capture a week before the election-solar jetman
From: badboyfg | Posted: 10/11/2004 12:25:23 PM | Message Detail
I can't resist it
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―`'~-.,_,.-~'`―`'~We Poo ―`'~-.,_,.-~'`―`'~
_,.-~'`―`'~-.,_,.-the Boards_,.-~'`―`'~-.,_,.-
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